jalen heyward. thunder storm- storm that produce lightning and thunder 2 major components...
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$485 billion in damage from storms in General. (National Weather Service, 2011) Storm intensity is important to know for our economy. Hypothesis: If storm intensity changed through out the year then the intensity would increaseTRANSCRIPT
Changes in Storm Intensity in North Carolina
Jalen Heyward
Introduction to Storms Thunder storm- storm that produce lightning and thunder 2 major components precipitation and wind speed/ gusts Important for safety matters and agriculture
How has storm intensity changed throughout the years in North Carolina?
Motivation
$485 billion in damage from storms in General. (National Weather Service, 2011)
Storm intensity is important to know for our economy.
Hypothesis: If storm intensity changed through out the year then the intensity would increase
7 Weather Stations Stanly County Airport( KVUJ) Upper Piedmont Research stn (Reidsville, REID) Upper Mountain ResearchStn (Laurel springs,
LAUR) Bearwallow Mountain (Hendersonville, BEAR) Central Crops Research station(Clayton, CLAY) Pamlico Aquaculture Field Lab (Aurora, AURO) Border Belt Tobacco Res stn ( Whiteville, WHIT)
Materials
Ten years of data maximum wind speed maximum wind Gust total precipitation maximum precipitation
Procedure Collected data from the different stations Convert hourly data to daily data
Maximum wind speed, Maximum wind gust, maximum precipitation, Total precipitation.
Graphed each data sets in time Calculated coefficient of variance( R2), trend
Border Belt Tobacco Research Station (Whiteville)
12/6
/199
9
4/19
/200
1
9/1/
2002
1/14
/200
4
5/28
/200
5
10/1
0/20
06
2/22
/200
8
7/6/
2009
11/1
8/20
10
4/1/
2012
8/14
/201
30
5
10
15
20
25
30
f(x) = − 0.000257420893903545 x + 17.9030188107446R² = 0.00919978846981728
Maximum wind speed Whiteville
Date / Time
Max
imum
win
d sp
eed
Mph
Trend line decreases
Border Belt Tobacco Res station (Whiteville)
12/1
8/20
08
7/6/
2009
1/22
/201
0
8/10
/201
0
2/26
/201
1
9/14
/201
1
4/1/
2012
05
10152025303540
f(x) = 0.00157937521128374 x − 51.4520697654625R² = 0.00920843071222921
Maximum wind gust Whiteville
Date/ Time
Max
imum
win
d g
ust
(M
ph)
Trend line slightly increases
Border Belt Tobacco Res station (Whiteville)
12/6
/199
9
4/19
/200
1
9/1/
2002
1/14
/200
4
5/28
/200
5
10/1
0/20
06
2/22
/200
8
7/6/
2009
11/1
8/20
10
4/1/
2012
8/14
/201
30
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
f(x) = − 9.50652784346569E-06 x + 0.437958535116291R² = 0.00274584973842884
Maximum precipitation Whiteville
Date/ TimeMax
imum
pre
cipi
taio
n (i
n)
Trend Line 0 slope
Border Belt Tobacco Res station (Whiteville)
12/6
/199
9
4/19
/200
1
9/1/
2002
1/14
/200
4
5/28
/200
5
10/1
0/20
06
2/22
/200
8
7/6/
2009
11/1
8/20
10
4/1/
2012
8/14
/201
30
1
2
3
4
5
6
f(x) = − 2.17706853798823E-05 x + 0.982594344458623R² = 0.00391173076887896
Total precipitation Whiteville
Date/ Time
Tota
l pre
cipi
tati
on (
in)
Trend line slightly decreases
Bear wallow Mountain12
/6/1
999
4/19
/200
1
9/1/
2002
1/14
/200
4
5/28
/200
5
10/1
0/20
06
2/22
/200
8
7/6/
2009
11/1
8/20
10
4/1/
2012
8/14
/201
30
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
f(x) = 0.00488026574659175 x − 186.176515505939R² = 0.321723571865124
Maximum gusts
Date/ Time
Gus
ts M
ph
Trend line in-creases
Pamlico aquaculture field lab
10/1
4/20
09
1/22
/201
0
5/2/
2010
8/10
/201
0
11/1
8/20
10
2/26
/201
1
6/6/
2011
9/14
/201
1
12/2
3/20
11
4/1/
2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
f(x) = − 0.000698437852672271 x + 41.4174922294983R² = 0.000817860718698937
Maximum wind gust
Date / Time
Gus
t (m
ph)
Trend line slightly decreases
Summary of slopesVariableMax wind speed
Max precipitation
Total precipitation
Max wind gust
Stanly county airport -4.00E-05 2.00E-05 -1.00E-05 0Upper Piedmont Research stn (Reidsville)
-0.00000001 8.00E-05 0.001 0.0001 Upper Mountain research Stn (laurel Springs) -0.000001 7.00E-07 7.00E-06 -0.006Bearwallow Mountain (Hendersonville)
-0.000001 6.00E-06 2.00E-05 0.004Central Crops research stn (clayton) 9.00E-05 -2.00E-06 -4.00E-06 0.004Pamlico Aquaculture Field Lab (Aurora)
-0.0000001 -4.00E-06 -6.00E-06
-0.00000000
1Border Belt Tobacco Res stn ( whiteville)
-1E-11 -1.00E-05 -2.00E-05 0.001
Conclusion
Maximum Windspeed= Trend line Decrease
Maximum Precipitation= Trendline Increase
Total precipitation= Trendline decrease
Maximum Wind gust= Trend line increase Neither increasing or decreasing storm
intensity. Results don’t support hypothesis.
Future Work
Data = variable How Much money was involved? Look at surface analysis Reports of tornadoes, wind, and Hail Looking at a much longer period
Acknowledgements
Thank you to the NC State Climate office
Thank you Adrienne and the other mentors for mentoring me.