j street volume 282

7/24/2019 J Street Volume 282

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ex

rket View

1

mpany Update 2

und the

nomy 3

wledge Corner 3

tual Fund 4

mmodity Corner 5

ex Corner 6

ort Card 7

rt Term Call Status 8

or & Contributor

rgi Shah

cial Contributors

esh Trivedi

tya Nahar

suggestions, feedback

queries

[email protected]

Market View:

Global and local uncertainties are growing

Kindly look at the headings of our notes from December onwards.

If we read the headlines of last ten weeks’ discussion note, one can understand the concern

pressed about the health of the world economy. We have also discussed that the uncertainties i

and European countries are also growing leading to investor’s nervousness. Investors have

directionless as more and more negative news are coming to the market from global and loca

Countries like Japan, Sweden, Switzerland and Finland have made their interest rates negati

also heard on the streets that US may also choose the same path going forward (?). Thepreparation is also going on with some positive and negative expectations. Finance Minister h

that the budget will be a balanced one and they will not resort to populist announcements. The c

of GST rollout are increasing with some announcements for recapitalization of PSU banks. At th

time, there may be some important announcements so far as long term capital gain is concern

tweak in LTG exemption may affect the sentiment of the market in short term. The current PE o

market is in the range of 18-19 and we still enjoy premium in the world market. If the world mark

not stabilize, this PE may come down. The sell on rally market does not allow the sustainability a

solidation. Genuine investors and buyers are postponing their buying and delivery volumes in the

are less. Considering all this point and the uncertainties in the world market, it is advisable to

sidelined and if at all want to invest, invest in installments, as we do not know which uncertain

news may hurt the sentiment. Technically any fall below 6825 will have more pain in the marketresistance levels are 7240 and 7550.

Kamal Jhaveri

MD- Jhaveri Securities

1 -

282February,2016

05-Dec-15 Aggressive Government Reforms Are Required To Withstand The Global winds

12-Dec-15 The Most Impor tant Week For The Global Market

19-Dec-15 The Fed Rate Hike Is Digested By The Market - What Next???

25-Dec-15 A Histor ic Year 2015 Was!!

02-Jan-16 2016 – A Challenging Year For Global Market

09-Jan-16

Global Uncertainties Are Growing

16-Jan-16 Global Melt Down

23-Jan-16 Season For New Stimulus???

30-Jan-16 Run Up To Budget 2016 Created The Platform For Bounce Back

06-Feb-16 The Concern For Slowing World Economy



2-

Company Basics

E Code 534312

E Symbol B

UITY ( in Cr.) 39.82

T.CAP ( in Cr.) 656.64

Financial Basics

FV ( ) 10.00

EPS ( ) (TTM) 7.65

P/E (x) (TTM) 21.54

P/BV (x) (TTM) 5.22

BETA 1.2363

RONW (%) 23.24

Share Holding Pattern

Holder's Name % Holdin

Foreign 24.74

Institutions 1.13

Promoters 42.78

Non Prom. 26.88

Public & Others 26.88

Government 0.00

mpany Overview

Educare is engaged in the business of providing education support and coaching services under the

me “Mahesh Tutorials”. It has its presence in 128 locations across 7 states and union territories of

estment rational

ian Coaching Sector has immense growth opportunitiesording to CRISIL estimates, the Indian coaching industry is expected to clock 17% CAGR (over FY201

m ` 40,187 cr to `75,629 cr. This growth would primarily be driven by rising disposable incomes, incr

usehold spend on education, infrastructural bottlenecks for formal education.

ographical vertical and diversification through various technology initiative

Gayatri Educational Society (Sri Gayatri). Sri Gayatri is one of the leading educational institution frmediate section (XI-XII) in the states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Sri Gayatri currently has 53 co

ead across the two states, with over 33,500 Engineering, Medical aspirants. Through this arrangement, provide to Sri Gayatri, the expertise in teacher training, study material, technology aided teaching me

in development of digital content on the lines of “Robomate”e of high margin educational Digital Content : Robomate / Advance Robomate

digital content of Robomate received good response from the students after launching of Robomate inouraged by this, MT Educare started content selling to students who are not enrolled with the comine sales through E-Commerce portal also received good response during the year. Presently, productsool, science, commerce, CA and IIT segment are being sold. During the year, content digitization for ISE, Std. XI, XII and JEE Advanced Robomate was completed. Robomate has highest margin of 32-35%.

company has developed 4 pronged growth strategy -1) Focus on national level exams; 2) geographtical expansion – expanding in North India, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana for scienc

mmerce; 3) Asset light college tie-up; and 4) Robomate – technology driven growth.

uation : MTEDUCARE is trading at 155. We recommend “Buy” with target price of 230 , valuing

FY18E EPS of 9.24.The stock currently trades at 21.48 x of FY16E, 19.53x of FY17E and 17.75x of FY18

mpany Update : MT Educare Ltd.

282February,2016



3-

eekly Market Recap :

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has eased the requirements for commercial banks to meet liquidity coverage ratios under BCommercial banks will be permitted to reckon government securities held by them up to another 3 per cent of their NDTLFALLCR (Facility to Avail Liquidity for Liquidity Coverage Ratio) within the mandatory SLR requirement as level 1 High QualityAssets for the purpose of computing their Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR).

On the macro front, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at slower pace of 7.3% in Q3 December 2015 compar.7% growth recorded in Q2 September 2015.

ndustrial production, measured in terms of index of industrial production (IIP), declined 1.3% in December.

Retail inflation, measured in terms of Consumer Price Index (or CPI) rose to a 16-month high in January, climbing to 5anuary compared with 5.61% in December. CPI stood at 5.19% in January last year.

arket Eye Week ahead :

Shares of public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) will be in focus as a regular fuel price review is due during the mhe month.

Data on inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) for January 2016 is due to be released by the government on MoFebruary 2016. WPI inflation stood at minus 0.73% in December 2015, compared with a reading of negative 1.99% in N015.

On the global front, China's trade data for the month of January 2016 is scheduled on Monday, 15 February 2016. US Inroduction numbers for January 2016 are scheduled on Wednesday, 17 February 2016.

Data on US initial jobless claims for the week ending 12 February 2016 is set to be released on Thursday, 18 February 2016.

Events / Factors to Watch

Mon: WPI data for the month of January 2016, Bombay rayon, SPL Industries, VKS Projects, Vimal oils earnings

Tue : Linde India, Net 4 India earnings

Relative Strength Index - RSI'

A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine ovend oversold conditions of an asset. It is calculated using the following formula:

RSI = 100 - 100/(1 + RS*). When RSI goes above 70 or below 30, it indicates that a stock is overbought or oversold and vulne trend reversal.

round The World

282February,2016

owledge Corner :



utual Fund Corner

4-

Source : - www.valueresearchon

nd Name

heme Name Franklin India Prima Fund

CFranklin Templeton Asset Management India Pri-vate Ltd

pe Mid Cap

egory Open-ended and Equity

nch Date December 1993

nd Manager R Janakiraman

Assetsn crore )

Rs. 3668.3 crore as on Jan 31, 2016

Top 10 Sector Break-Ups

Sector Weights Fund

Financial 25

Engineering 16

Services 11

Automobile 7.

Chemicals 7.

Healthcare 5

Technology 4.Energy 3

Construction 3.

Cons Durable 3

Composition (%)

Equity 95

Debt 0

Cash 4

Risk Analysis

Volatility Measures

Standard Deviation 16

Sharpe Ratio 1

Beta 1

R-Squared 0 Alpha 15

tory 2013 2014 2015 2016

(Rs) 355.00 632.41 675.48 591.15

l Return (%) 7.40 78.14 6.81 -12.48

ifty 50 0.64 46.75 10.87 -0.33

S&P BSE 100 3.79 40.32 7.53 0.77

k (Fund/Category) 11/47 16/78 45/78 16/82

eek High (Rs) 355.00 632.41 694.92 -

Week Low (Rs) 277.91 338.06 626.72 -

Assets (Rs.Cr) 867.36 2690.99 3846.39 -

ense Ratio (%) 2.56 2.32 2.31 -

Fund StyleInvestment StyleGrowth Blend Value

Large

Medi

Sma

282February,2016

nd Performance v/s S&P CNX Nifty

FundCNX Nify

based to 10,000)



mmodity Corner

5-

DAMENTAL: Bullion prices last week ended with gains amid the continued rout in global equity markets with weakness in the dollar & falliyields driving demand for the perceived safety of the precious metal. In her two-day semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony before cChair Janet Yellen maintained that the central bank remains on a wait-and-see approach as it pertained to normalizing monetary policy whe time leaving the door open for further easing. When pressed on the likelihood of negative interest rates, Yellen said that the notion wasable,” suggesting that the central acknowledges the recent slump in global markets and is ready to take further accommodative measures Ironically, the remarks come less than 2-months after the Fed moved to hike rates for the first time in nearly a decade. Further evidence lobal growth concerns were apparent this week with the Swedish Riksbank deciding to cut interest rates deeper into negative territory. T

es amid continued easing measures from global central banks - offering a tailwind to gold prices as uncertainty & tightening global growthflows into the lower yielding, “safer” assets as a store of wealth. As rate expectations from the Fed are pushed out further, look for persistein the dollar & increased volatility in broader risk markets to help prop-up bullion prices. Heading into next week, traders will be closely eyewith housing starts, building permits & industrial production data on tap. Indian gold traders say they are struggling to draw buyers despiterd discounts over rallying international prices, as consumers wait to see if rates can fall further after the federal budget this month. The bu

ry expects the government to cut the record 10 percent import duty on gold in the annual budget for 2016/17 that will be presented on Febally boosting supply and driving domestic prices lower. Indian gold prices also swung into deep discounts before the last budget, when thet surprised the market with no cut in duty on the metal. Consumers in China and India tend to typically buyin jewellery form, swooping in to hunt bargains or if they are confident of a sustained rally.OMMENDATION : SELL GOLD ON JUMP @ 29600 SL 30200 TGT 29100-28700. SELL SILVER @ 38500 SL 39800 TGT 37600-36700

DAMENTAL : Base metals prices last week ended with gains as prices seen supported after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen

U.S. interest rates would rise gradually, sending the dollar lower. Comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve's chairwoman, Janet Yellen, th

t markets, volatile financial markets and uncertainty over Chinese economic growth have raised risks for the U.S. economy also undermin

e. Zinc prices was the major gained ended with almost 5 percent gains amid signs of tightening supplies. Prices were remains suppor

man Sachs said that it expected the galvanising metal "to significantly outperform" other metals due to mine depletion and cutbacks. Globa

erns have been aggravated by large losses in bank shares, the potential for a financial crisis and worries about the U.S. Federal Reserve

s despite signs of economic slowdown in the United States. However, Fed Chair Janet Yellen stressed U.S. interest rates were not on a "

to "normal". Comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve's chairwoman, Janet Yellen, that tighter credit markets, volatile financial markets an

y over Chinese economic growth have raised risks for the U.S. economy also undermined confidence. The market to an increasing exten

her the Fed will hike rates again. Goldman Sachs has cut its 3- and 6-month nickel price forecasts to $8,500 a tonne from $10,000 and

th forecast to $8,500 from $11,000.

OMMENDATION : BUY COPPER @ 304 SL 298 TGT 312-320.BUY ZINC @ 113 SL 109 TGT 117.50-121.BUY NICKEL @ 530 SL 5

590.BUY ALUMINIUM @ 101 SL 98 TGT 104.50-107.BUY LEAD @ 123 SL 118 TGT 127.50-132.

DAMENTAL : In Energy Complex we have seen a dramatic rally on Friday in Crude oil prices where prices surged nearly 8.79% to settled

k posting its biggest one-day gain in seven years as a renewed possibility of coordinated production cuts prompted investors to close out

r prices while still on week on week bases prices are still down by 7%. Meanwhile Natural gas crashed to seven-week lows on Friday to

n by -4% at 133.90 as updated weather forecasting models called for higher-than-normal temperatures later in February. Crude prices re

t following reports late Thursday that OPEC members are preparing to cooperate on potential production cuts, according to UAE's energy

UAE is regarded as a key cog for smaller OPEC members desperate for increases in oil prices, given its reluctance to slash output

ths. Any deal requires the approval of Saudi Arabia. Futures received a further boost after industry research group Baker Hughes said lat

the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. decreased by 28 to 439 last week. While Global crude production is outpacing demand foll

m in U.S. shale oil and after a decision by the OPEC last year not to cut production in order to defend market share. Oversupply issues will

ted further as Iranian exports return to the global oil market.

OMMENDATION : BUY CRUDE OIL @ 1900 SL 1780 TGT 2080-2250. SELL NAT.GAS @ 138 SL 148 TGT 126-120.

BULLION

BASE METALS

ENERGY

282February,2016



4 -

mmodity Corner

USD/INR

6-

rex Corner

EUR/INR

GBP/INR

JPY/INR

rket Eye Week ahead :

Rupee will try to settle higher against the US Dollar on exporters greenback sales even as the central bankers apptepped in to contain excessive volatility. We expect the US dollar to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Util

backs in USD INR to sell Feb Futures contract. Resistance will be seen at 69.22 levels.

Level S2 S1 CP R1 R2 High Low Cl

SD/INR 67.69 68.03 68.34 68.68 68.99 68.64 67.99 68


PY/INR 56.34 58.52 67.23 62.15 63.60 61.43 57.80 60


BP/INR 97.62 98.50 99.01 99.89 100.40 99.51 98.12 99


UR/INR 74.62 75.88 76.91 78.17 79.20 77.94 75.65 77

rket Recap :

The Indian rupee strengthened against the dollar onMonday, 15 February 2016 on increased selling ofhe US currency by exporters and banks amid

higher opening in the domestic equity market.

The domestic currency opened at Rs 68.15 againsthe dollar and climbed to a high of 68.06 so far dur-ng the day. In the spot currency market, the Indianunit was last seen at 68.08.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index, which measureshe greenback's strength against a trade-weightedbasket of six major currencies, rose 0.24% to 96.22.

The dollar regained ground on Friday after forecastbeating U.S. retail sales figures for Januaryupported the view that the Federal Reserve is likelyo stay on a tightening path as other world central

banks ease monetary policy.

282February,2016



Nifty finally closed the week at 6980.95 thereby showed a net fall of 508 points on week to week basis. We had sugast week to sell on break below 7400. Sell got triggered and target of 7250 was achieved. A technical bounce bacome as markets are in oversold zone. Exit long and sell on rise to 7120-7372 with a stop loss of 7500. Expeange of 6900-6730 below to be tested.

Macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic instnvestors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bn the near term.

7-

treet Recommendations Report Card

Top Fundamental Stocks

Stocks Rec. Date CMP on Rec. CMP Target AbsoluteReturn @

CMPSta

Educare 01/02/2016 164 155 230 -5% Bu

ware-Wall Ropes 28/12/2015 425 318 550 -25% Bu

spun syntax 23/11/2015 121 104 223 -14% Bu

co Pharma 02/11/2015 509 461 3183 -9% B

F 21/09/2015 1140 1148 1374 1% Bu

uwal ia contracts 24/08/2015 235 242 368 3% Bu

nite Computer20/07/2015 190 206 255 8% Bu

n Spinners Ltd . 06/07/2015 79 58 94 -26% Bu

nk of Baroda 01/06/2015 163 140 217 -14% Bu

bika Cotton Mil ls 18/05/2015 880 785 1149 -11% Bu

dbhavgineering Ltd.

04/05/2015 298 241 430 -19% Bu

kar specialityemicals

16/03/2015 152 162 251 7% Bu

FL 16/02/2015 252 159 368 -37% Accum

Today Network 27/01/2015 222 307 337 38% Bu

M 12/01/2015 1238 1223 1452 -1% Bu

vells India 27/10/2014 274 291 346 6% Bu

C India Fin. Ser. 07/07/2014 39 32 45 -18% Bu

ani Port 05/07/2014 280 191 347 -32% Accum

s not important whether you are right or wrong, It’s about how much money you make when you're right and h

ch you

lose

when

you're

wrong.”

282February,2016



7-

treet Short Term Call Status

282February,2016

DATE STOCK BUY/SELL

RANGE RANGE TRIGGER

PRICE TGT SL STATUS

RE

22‐Dec‐15 GLENMARK SELL 920 940 930 895 970 PB

23‐Dec‐15 CANBK SELL 236 242 239 231 248 TA

24‐Dec‐15

AURO‐

PHARMA

BUY 862 878 870 900 845 TA

28‐Dec‐15

HEROMO‐

TOCO

SELL 2715 2665 2690 2590 2765 TA

29‐Dec

‐15

ARVIND

BUY

342

347

344.5

361

332

TA

30‐Dec‐15 APOLLOHSPT BUY 1448 1475 1461.5 1520 1400 TA

31‐Dec‐15 ZEEL BUY 423 431 427 440 414 SL

04‐Jan‐15 HAVELLS BUY 320 325 322.5 332 310 SL

05‐Jan‐15 CADILAHC SELL 320 325 322.5 308 335 TA

06‐Jan

‐15

SBIN

SELL

216

220

218

210

226

TA

07‐Jan‐15 INFY BUY 1060 1080 1070 1030 1120 TA

08‐Jan‐15 TECHM SELL 506 515 510.5 490 532 TA

11‐Jan‐16 MARUTI SELL 4200 4270 4235 4040 4300 TA

12‐Jan‐16 M&M SELL 1155 1177 1166 1100 1195 TA

13‐Jan‐16 FEDRALBANK SELL 47.7 48.7 48.2 46.2 51 TA

14‐Jan

‐16

BANKINDIA

SELL

93

97

95

90

100

TA

15‐Jan‐16 TATASTEEL SELL 237 241 239 230 245 TA

18‐Jan‐16 ACC SELL 1220 1242 1231 1190 1270 TA

19‐Jan‐16 HINDPETRO SELL 820 832 826 788 858 TA

20‐Jan‐16 BANKBARODA SELL 124 126 125 119 129 TA

21‐Jan‐16 ALBK SELL 49 51 50 47.8 53 SL

22‐Jan‐16 DRREDDY BUY 2730 2780 2755 2885 2680 TA



7-

treet Short Term Call Status

282February,2016

DATE STOCK BUY/SELL

RANGE TRIGGER

PRICE TGT SL STATUS CMP

%T

25‐Jan‐16 IGL BUY 564 578 571 595 550 TA

27‐Jan‐16 HAVELLS BUY 298 304 301 313 287 TA

28‐Jan‐16 HINDZINC SELL 158 162 160 152 166 TA

1‐Feb‐16 APOLLOHOSP BUY 1458 1486 1472.00 1520.00 1430 TA

2‐Feb‐16 SYNDIBANK SELL 63 64.2 63.60 60.00 66.2 TA

3‐Feb‐16 ALBK SELL 49 53 51.00 47.00 55 TA

4‐Feb‐16 UCOBANK SELL 32 34 33.00 30.50 35.5 SL

5‐Feb‐16 JETAIRWAYS SELL 524 536 530.00 510.00 553 SL

STAUTS

CALLS

RATIO

TA+PB 29 82.86

SL+EXIT 6 17.14

TOTAL 35 100.00

One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis.Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call.

This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk.Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against Expected return of 5-6%Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)



282February,2016

j street volume 282

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