j. nielsen (usgs) & g. ruggerone (nrc)
DESCRIPTION
Linkages between climate, growth, competition at sea, and production of sockeye salmon populations in Bristol Bay, Alaska, 1955-2000. J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
![Page 2: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Linkages between climate, growth, competition at sea, and production of sockeye salmon populations in Bristol Bay,
Alaska, 1955-2000
J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)
![Page 3: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
North Pacific Ocean – a Highly Productive Ecosystem2002 U.S. North Pacific exvessel harvest value = $1.13 billion
Pacific Rim Salmon Runs, 1951-2001
0
200
400
600
800
Salm
on
ru
n (
million
s)
50 60 70 80 90 100
Year
Coho
ChinookChum
SockeyePink
![Page 4: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Climate Change and North Pacific Salmonid Species Abundance Shifts
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
PD
O I
nd
ex
51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 01
Year
1997/98El Nino
1976/77Oceanregimeshift
![Page 5: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Regime Shift Impacts on Marine PopulationsCompiled by D. L. Alverson (NRC)
![Page 6: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Eastern North Pacific Winter Sea Surface Temperature
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
No
rmali
zed
SS
T(
Z)
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00
Year
Oceanregimeshift
![Page 7: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Run, 1951-2002
0
20
40
60
80
So
ckeye r
un
(m
illi
on
s)
51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 01
Year
1997/98El Nino
1976/77Oceanregimeshift
![Page 8: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Key Question
What biological and physical climatic feedback mechanisms have influenced
historic and current abundance patterns in Bristol Bay sockeye salmon?
![Page 9: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
New Use for an Old Tool: Salmon Scales
Focus
FW1
FW2
FWPL
SW1
SW2
SWPL
![Page 10: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Salmon Size Related to Scale Radius
100
200
300
400
500
600
Scale
rad
ius (
µ)
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Sockeye length (mm)
r2 = 0.96
Davis et al. 1990; Zimmerman 1991
![Page 11: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Sockeye salmon growth using salmon scale annuli & circuli measurements
![Page 12: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Ocean Carrying Capacity Hypotheses Greater salmon abundance is related to greater early marine growth
in coastal waters.
Greater salmon abundance is associated with reduced growth during older life stages (density-dependence).
Competition during freshwater & marine life-stages can reduce growth and survival.
Highly migratory salmon may compete with conspecifics
originating from distant natal rivers.
Peterman 1984; Ishida et al 1993; Rogers & Ruggerone 1993; Welch & Parsons 1993; McKinnell 1995; Pyper & Peterman 1999; Pearcy et al. 1999
![Page 13: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Kvichak Sockeye Growth During First Two Years at Sea
-2
-1
0
1
2
Norm
alize
d g
row
th (
Z)
52 57 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 97
Year at sea
Climate shift
![Page 14: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Salmon Abundance Linked to Early Ocean Growth, 1955-2000
0
20
40
60
80
Weste
rn A
K s
ockeye (
million
s)
1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9
Kvichak SW1&2 scale growth (mm)
![Page 15: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Kvichak Sockeye Growth During Third Year at Sea:Density-dependent
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Norm
alize
d g
row
th (
Z)
52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96
Year at sea
Climate shift
![Page 16: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
• Asian pink salmon are highly abundant during odd numbered years.
• Bristol Bay sockeye salmon overlap with Asian pink salmon during their 2nd and 3rd years at sea.
• Pink and sockeye salmon have similar diets on high seas.
• Food consumption of both species declines in odd yrs.
• Sockeye diet changes more than pink diet in odd-yrs.
• Few wild or hatchery pink salmon originate from Bristol Bay.
Facts Supporting Competition Hypothesis
![Page 17: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Eastern Kamchatka Pink Salmon Runs, 1957-2002
0
25
50
75
100
Ru
n (
million
s)
57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01
Year
![Page 18: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Hatchery Pink Salmon Release
0
500
1000
1500
Pin
k sa
lmon r
ele
ase
(m
illio
ns)
50 60 70 80 90
Release year
![Page 19: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Overlap of Asian pink & Bristol Bay Sockeye salmon
![Page 20: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Sockeye growth reduced during odd years at sea (2nd & 3rd yrs)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Norm
alize
d g
row
th (
Z)
53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97
Year at sea
Even-numbered year
Odd-numbered year3rd year at seamean = 612 ± 54 µ
![Page 21: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Asian Pink Salmon Affect Adult Sockeye Length, 1958-2000
540
550
560
570S
ock
eye l
en
gth
(m
m)
0 20 40 60 80
Bristol Bay sockeye run (millions)
1977-2000
1958-1976
540
550
560
570
So
ckeye l
en
gth
(m
m)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Asian Pink salmon run (millions)
![Page 22: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Smolt to Adult Survival, 1977-1997
-45% -26%
0
5
10
15
20
25S
urv
ival at
sea (
%)
Age 1. Age 2.
Freshwater age
Odd 2ndyr
Even 2ndyr
Even 2nd yr
Odd 2ndyr
![Page 23: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
59 Million Fewer Sockeye, 1977-1997(>$310 million)
0
3
6
9
12
Ad
ult
sockeye s
alm
on
(m
illion
s)
Egegik Naknek Ugashik Nushagak
Sockeye stock
Even 2nd yr
Odd 2nd yr
![Page 24: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Implications of Feedback between Global Change & Competition Effect on Salmon Survival
• Climate feedback processes can impact salmon production on multiple scales.
• Climate change influence on local production of salmon may have unintended impacts on distant stocks.
• Natural and anthropogenic fluctuations in salmon production and shifts in food web dynamics may impact ESA protected salmon species throughout the North Pacific Ocean.
• These findings provide evidence of the need for “salmonid ecosystem management” looking at both freshwater and marine feedback patterns in salmon.
![Page 25: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Acknowledgements: E. Farley, P. Hagen, B. Agler,J. Meka, D. Rogers, K. Myers, S. Ignell, M. Zimmerman
![Page 26: J. Nielsen (USGS) & G. Ruggerone (NRC)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081520/56814b1c550346895db83086/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)