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Slide 2 ITS LATE, AUSTRALIA!! Slide 3 How long until you wake up? First call: Uppsala 2002 Then: Rimini, Pisa, Denver, Boston, Cork, Houston, zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz During six long years: whats changed? Slide 4 While Australia has slept on: 2002 Discovery rates continue decades-long fall Calculations suggest reserves cant meet demand projections Some recognition of political, investment risk in developing resources Slide 5 While Australia has slept on: 2002 Discovery rates continue decades-long fall Calculations suggest reserves cant meet demand projections Some recognition of political, investment risk in developing resources 2008 No improvement in resource situation New, more accurate, calculations of supply define earlier peak more clearly Political will to increase supply clearly absent; prices not stimulating investment to increase supply Slide 6 Weve carried on burning up oil . Slide 7 buying from those who have lots Slide 8 International Energy Associations wake-up call : There are three problems: Geology Investment Policy of main producers These, taken together, make the future of oil very difficult Fatih Birol Chief Economist Slide 9 In your dreams . The explorers will fix it; theres lots of oil out there - think of Jack and Tupi; add in the OCS and ANWR Worldwide reserves/production ratio is still 40:1; theres lots of time to find other energy sources Technology will deal with it: add just 10% to recovery efficiency and were fine Slide 10 Discoveries the trend continues! Slide 11 The R/P Placebo Field rate declines after ~ 50% of reserves produced Total rate not constant, declines ~ 4% /year. After 40 years rate is ~ 20% of original Slide 12 Effects of New Technology Little indication that recovery efficiency is increasing in established fields. Main benefits seems to be in dealing with unexpected problems and in finding small accumulations Slide 13 Were trying harder, but .! Source: BP, Baker Hughes Slide 14 If it looks like a peak and it feels like a peak then .! World Oil production (mmb/d) Source: BP Slide 15 If it looks like a peak .. Slide 16 Some things arent changing . Slide 17 others are Slide 18 but not as we had expected Slide 19 Searching for the Way Forward The two great challenges facing mankind are PEAK OIL CLIMATE CHANGE Can we find a common solution? Slide 20 Searching for the Way Forward Most people can conceive only two possible scales of response: INDIVIDUALS, IN THEIR DAILY LIVES (the light bulb syndrome) GOVERNMENT, ON A NATIONAL SCALE Slide 21 Business as Usual Demand Growth How will restricted supply / higher prices alter these? Slide 22 The Problem and part of the Solution? Slide 23 Prices wake us up Slide 24 Source: 13D Research, NY Rationing: A forced solution Queuing for diesel at a Sinopec station in South China, Apr. 2008 Waiting in line for gas when Grangemouth refinery workers were on strike, Apr. 2008 Slide 25 Moving Source: Gilbert, Paul, Transport Revolutions Slide 26 How the US moves Source: Gilbert, Paul, Transport Revolutions US FREIGHT COSTS AND VALUES PipelineRailRoadAir Freight Value ($/t)670900280087000 Transport Cost ($/t-km)1015180550 Transport Cost as % value1.51.76.30.6 Slide 27 How we move around the world Source: Gilbert, Paul, Transport Revolutions Transport Mode Shares (%) (International Trade) Modetonne-kmsShipment Value Water96.749 Road1.511 Rail1.03 Pipeline0.52 Air0.335 Slide 28 Moving more slowly! Source: Gilbert, Paul, Transport Revolutions Slide 29 Basis for the Transition Towns Four key assumptions: Life with lower energy consumption inevitable, better to plan than be surprised Communities lack resilience to be able to deal with severe energy shocks Must act collectively and act now Can unleash collective genius of us all to design our energy descent, build more connecting and enriching ways of living, recognize biological limits of our planet Hopkins, Transition Handbook , 2008 Slide 30 Peak Oil, Climate Change - Intertwined Problems Hopkins: Transition Handbook (2008) Slide 31 Slide 32 The End Slide 33 SPARE SLIDES Slide 34 Slide 35 Power Source Power/Unit / Land Area (W / (m**2)) Wind - onshore 2 Wind- offshore 3 Tidal Pools 3 Tidal Streams 50 Solar PV Panels 5 Plants 0.5 Concentrating Solar - deserts 15 Ocean thermal 5 To make a difference, renewable facilities must be country-sized Renewables are diffuse