itc in equity 24jul21 ru - edelweissresearch.com

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Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited KEY DATA Rating HOLD Sector relative Neutral Price (INR) 212 12 month price target (INR) 241 Market cap (INR bn/USD bn) 2,615/35.1 Free float/Foreign ownership (%) 100.0/14.6 What’s Changed Target Price Rating/Risk Rating QUICK TAKE Cigarettes impacted; FMCG resilient ITC’s Q1FY22 net revenue (up 37.1% YoY) came in line, but EBITDA (up 50.8% YoY) and PAT (up 28.6% YoY) undershot our estimates. Cigarette volumes rose 32% YoY on a soft base of -40% YoY. The FMCG segment’s revenue grew 10.4% YoY driven by hygiene, fragrance, spices, snacks, agarbattis and dairy products. High base effect in staples and convenience foods led to moderation in YoY growth. The Hygiene segment performed well, delivering sequential growth after normalising in H2FY21 at elevated levels. Overall ESG-led investing is assuming significance and ITC is consciously striving to climb up the ESG ladder. Retain ‘HOLD’ with an SoTP-based TP of INR241. FINANCIALS (INR mn) Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Revenue 4,92,728 5,46,815 5,95,810 6,38,697 EBITDA 1,70,027 2,04,088 2,28,183 2,50,920 Adjusted profit 1,33,829 1,59,326 1,77,759 1,95,310 Diluted EPS (INR) 10.9 13.0 14.4 15.9 EPS growth (%) (15.5) 19.1 11.6 9.9 RoAE (%) 21.3 25.7 27.2 28.3 P/E (x) 19.5 16.4 14.7 13.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.2 11.7 10.4 9.3 Dividend yield (%) 5.1 4.9 5.4 6.0 PRICE PERFORMANCE Cigarettes suffer wave 2 impact, FMCG business robust Cigarettes volumes were impacted by the second wave (down ~21% on two-year basis); however, week‐on‐week improvement is underway since mid-June with most markets returning to normalcy and witnessing faster recovery compared with the first wave. Cigarettes’ net revenue grew 33% compared with 7% in Q4FY21. The FMCG business showed robust performance with 10.4% growth in revenue. Education & Stationery Products’ business remains impacted due to continued closure of educational institutions. The Discretionary segment clocked good YoY growth on a favourable base; however sequential performance was hit due to the second covid wave. FMCG e-commerce sales more than doubled to 8% of segmental revenue. FMCG EBITDA margin expanded for the 13 th consecutive quarter, by 40bps YoY. Cigarettes margin expanded 210bps YoY. Other business The hotel business was impacted due to a fresh round of mobility restrictions triggered by the second covid wave. The hotel business is rebounding with the easing of restrictions. Agri business (up 9.2% YoY) saw strong exports, led by wheat, rice and leaf tobacco. There was no disruption in supplies to key customers of agri business. The paper business shot up 54.2% YoY led by value added and décor paper. Explore: Outlook and valuation: Triggers awaited; maintain ‘HOLD’ While the cigarette opportunity in India remains attractive given per capita consumption, investing modalities have changed with ESG assuming a significant role. We maintain ‘HOLD/SN’ with a TP of INR241. The stock is trading at 14.7x FY23E EPS. Financials Year to March Q1FY22 Q1FY21 % Change Q4FY21 % Change Net Revenue 1,22,171 89,113 37.1 1,32,947 (8.1) EBITDA 39,922 26,466 50.8 44,730 (10.8) Adjusted Profit 30,135 23,428 28.6 37,484 (19.6) Diluted EPS (INR) 2.4 1.9 28.6 3.0 (19.6) Above In line Below Profit Margins Revenue Growth Overall 36,000 39,600 43,200 46,800 50,400 54,000 150 170 190 210 230 250 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 ITC IN Equity Sensex India Equity Research Consumer Staples July 24, 2021 ITC RESULT UPDATE Abneesh Roy Tushar Sundrani +91 (22) 6620 3141 +91 (22) 6620 3004 [email protected] [email protected] Corporate access Financial model Podcast Video

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Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited

KEY DATA

Rating HOLD Sector relative Neutral Price (INR) 212 12 month price target (INR) 241 Market cap (INR bn/USD bn) 2,615/35.1 Free float/Foreign ownership (%) 100.0/14.6

What’s Changed

Target Price ⚊

Rating/Risk Rating ⚊

QUICK TAKE

Cigarettes impacted; FMCG resilient

ITC’s Q1FY22 net revenue (up 37.1% YoY) came in line, but EBITDA (up 50.8% YoY) and PAT (up 28.6% YoY) undershot our estimates. Cigarette volumes rose 32% YoY on a soft base of -40% YoY. The FMCG segment’s revenue grew 10.4% YoY driven by hygiene, fragrance, spices, snacks, agarbattis and dairy products. High base effect in staples and convenience foods led to moderation in YoY growth. The

Hygiene segment performed well, delivering sequential growth after normalising in H2FY21 at elevated levels.

Overall ESG-led investing is assuming significance and ITC is consciously striving to climb up the ESG ladder. Retain ‘HOLD’ with an SoTP-based TP of INR241.

FINANCIALS (INR mn)

Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

Revenue 4,92,728 5,46,815 5,95,810 6,38,697

EBITDA 1,70,027 2,04,088 2,28,183 2,50,920

Adjusted profit 1,33,829 1,59,326 1,77,759 1,95,310

Diluted EPS (INR) 10.9 13.0 14.4 15.9

EPS growth (%) (15.5) 19.1 11.6 9.9

RoAE (%) 21.3 25.7 27.2 28.3

P/E (x) 19.5 16.4 14.7 13.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 14.2 11.7 10.4 9.3

Dividend yield (%) 5.1 4.9 5.4 6.0

PRICE PERFORMANCE

Cigarettes suffer wave 2 impact, FMCG business robust

Cigarettes volumes were impacted by the second wave (down ~21% on two-year

basis); however, week‐on‐week improvement is underway since mid-June with most

markets returning to normalcy and witnessing faster recovery compared with the

first wave. Cigarettes’ net revenue grew 33% compared with 7% in Q4FY21. The

FMCG business showed robust performance with 10.4% growth in revenue.

Education & Stationery Products’ business remains impacted due to continued

closure of educational institutions. The Discretionary segment clocked good YoY

growth on a favourable base; however sequential performance was hit due to the

second covid wave. FMCG e-commerce sales more than doubled to 8% of segmental

revenue. FMCG EBITDA margin expanded for the 13th consecutive quarter, by 40bps

YoY. Cigarettes margin expanded 210bps YoY.

Other business

The hotel business was impacted due to a fresh round of mobility restrictions

triggered by the second covid wave. The hotel business is rebounding with the easing

of restrictions. Agri business (up 9.2% YoY) saw strong exports, led by wheat, rice

and leaf tobacco. There was no disruption in supplies to key customers of agri

business. The paper business shot up 54.2% YoY led by value added and décor paper.

Explore:

Outlook and valuation: Triggers awaited; maintain ‘HOLD’

While the cigarette opportunity in India remains attractive given per capita

consumption, investing modalities have changed with ESG assuming a significant

role. We maintain ‘HOLD/SN’ with a TP of INR241. The stock is trading at 14.7x FY23E

EPS.

Financials Year to March Q1FY22 Q1FY21 % Change Q4FY21 % Change

Net Revenue 1,22,171 89,113 37.1 1,32,947 (8.1)

EBITDA 39,922 26,466 50.8 44,730 (10.8)

Adjusted Profit 30,135 23,428 28.6 37,484 (19.6)

Diluted EPS (INR) 2.4 1.9 28.6 3.0 (19.6)

Above In line Below

Profit

Margins

Revenue Growth

Overall

36,000

39,600

43,200

46,800

50,400

54,000

150

170

190

210

230

250

Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21

ITC IN Equity Sensex

India Equity Research Consumer Staples July 24, 2021

ITC RESULT UPDATE

Abneesh Roy Tushar Sundrani +91 (22) 6620 3141 +91 (22) 6620 3004 [email protected] [email protected]

Corporate access

Financial model Podcast

Video

ITC

Edelweiss Securities Limited

2 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset

Financial Statements

Income Statement (INR mn) Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

Total operating income 4,92,728 5,46,815 5,95,810 6,38,697

Gross profit 2,88,214 3,34,631 3,67,626 4,00,387

Employee costs 44,633 45,877 49,997 53,595

Other expenses 67,942 80,959 85,289 91,427

EBITDA 1,70,027 2,04,088 2,28,183 2,50,920

Depreciation 16,456 18,693 20,193 21,693

Less: Interest expense 446 639 662 662

Add: Other income 26,326 28,349 30,429 32,664

Profit before tax 1,79,451 2,13,105 2,37,757 2,61,229

Prov for tax 45,553 53,702 59,915 65,830

Less: Other adj 0 0 0 0

Reported profit 1,33,829 1,59,326 1,77,759 1,95,310

Less: Excp.item (net) 0 0 0 0

Adjusted profit 1,33,829 1,59,326 1,77,759 1,95,310

Diluted shares o/s 12,302 12,302 12,302 12,302

Adjusted diluted EPS 10.9 13.0 14.4 15.9

DPS (INR) 10.7 10.4 11.6 12.7

Tax rate (%) 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.2

Important Ratios (%) Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

Gross margin (%) 58.5 61.2 61.7 62.7

Con A&P (% of rev) 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0

Staff cost (% of rev) 9.1 8.4 8.4 8.4

EBITDA margin (%) 34.5 37.3 38.3 39.3

Net profit margin (%) 27.2 29.1 29.8 30.6

Revenue growth (% YoY) (0.1) 10.3 9.0 7.2

EBITDA growth (% YoY) (11.7) 20.0 11.8 10.0

Adj. profit growth (%) (15.4) 19.1 11.6 9.9

Assumptions (%) Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

GDP (YoY %) (8.0) 9.0 7.0 7.0

Repo rate (%) 4.0 4.0 4.3 5.3

USD/INR (average) 75.0 73.0 72.0 71.0

Cigs- Vol growth (13.0) 7.0 6.0 4.0

Cigs- Pricing change 8.3 1.0 1.0 1.0

FMCG sales growth 14.6 10.0 8.0 8.0

Cig EBIT margin 59.8 60.0 63.0 65.0

FMCG EBIT margin 5.7 6.5 7.0 8.0

COGS % of sales 40.9 37.5 37.0 36.0

Valuation Metrics Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

Diluted P/E (x) 19.5 16.4 14.7 13.4

Price/BV (x) 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 14.2 11.7 10.4 9.3

Dividend yield (%) 5.1 4.9 5.4 6.0

Source: Company and Edelweiss estimates

Balance Sheet (INR mn) Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

Share capital 12,309 12,309 12,309 12,309

Reserves 5,91,165 6,23,030 6,58,582 6,97,644

Shareholders funds 6,03,473 6,35,339 6,70,890 7,09,952

Minority interest 3,468 3,544 3,628 3,717

Borrowings 95 95 95 95

Trade payables 43,187 40,457 43,511 45,398

Other liabs & prov 80,449 80,449 80,449 80,449

Total liabilities 7,37,608 7,66,819 8,05,508 8,46,546

Net block 1,95,305 1,97,915 2,02,721 2,06,028

Intangible assets 37,680 37,680 37,680 37,680

Capital WIP 40,113 40,000 40,000 40,000

Total fixed assets 2,73,098 2,75,594 2,80,401 2,83,708

Non current inv 1,00,245 1,00,245 1,00,245 1,00,245

Cash/cash equivalent 1,95,054 2,16,727 2,40,005 2,70,404

Sundry debtors 25,017 34,010 37,065 39,732

Loans & advances 75 75 75 75

Other assets 1,29,815 1,25,863 1,33,412 1,38,078

Total assets 7,37,608 7,66,819 8,05,508 8,46,546

Free Cash Flow (INR mn) Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

Reported profit 1,33,829 1,59,326 1,77,759 1,95,310

Add: Depreciation 16,456 18,693 20,193 21,693

Interest (net of tax) 446 639 662 662

Others 69 76 83 89

Less: Changes in WC (7,682) (7,771) (7,550) (5,446)

Operating cash flow 1,43,118 1,70,963 1,91,148 2,12,309

Less: Capex (43,356) (24,887) (25,000) (25,000)

Free cash flow 99,762 1,46,076 1,66,148 1,87,309

Key Ratios Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

RoE (%) 21.3 25.7 27.2 28.3

RoCE (%) 28.5 34.3 36.3 37.7

Inventory days 175 182 172 174

Receivable days 19 20 22 22

Payable days 72 74 69 71

Working cap (% sales) 9.8 10.3 10.8 10.9

Gross debt/equity (x) 0 0 0 0

Net debt/equity (x) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4)

Interest coverage (x) 344.5 290.3 314.1 346.2

Valuation Drivers Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

EPS growth (%) (15.5) 19.1 11.6 9.9

RoE (%) 21.3 25.7 27.2 28.3

EBITDA growth (%) (11.7) 20.0 11.8 10.0

Payout ratio (%) 98.7 80.0 80.0 80.0

Edelweiss Securities Limited

ITC

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset 3

Trends at a glance

(%) Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22

Cigarette volume growth 3.0 3.0 2.0 (10.0) (40.0) (12.0) (5.0) 8.0 32.0

Net revenue growth YoY

FMCG-Cigarettes 6.0 6.0 4.7 (13.6) (37.8) (14.4) (7.8) 9.8 34.2

FMCG-Others 6.6 4.0 3.5 (2.8) 10.3 15.4 7.5 15.8 10.4

Hotels 15.0 17.7 22.2 (8.6) (94.2) (80.8) (57.4) (38.2) 463.5

Agribusiness 14.6 19.3 8.8 (10.2) 3.7 12.8 18.5 78.5 9.2

Paperboards, paper & packaging 12.7 9.9 0.8 (5.1) (32.8) (6.8) (5.0) 13.5 54.2

Overall revenue growth 6.0 5.9 5.0 (9.5) (20.8) (3.8) (0.1) 22.7 (7.7)

EBIT growth YoY

FMCG-Cigarettes 8.2 7.4 5.6 (11.7) (38.8) (15.6) (8.1) 7.7 36.7

FMCG-Others 55.7 54.8 40.4 12.6 60.7 179.3 92.7 28.4 38.3

Hotels (21.4) 12.0 44.8 (52.0) NM NM NM NM NM

Agribusiness 4.3 5.7 7.4 (16.4) (11.9) 2.7 (8.1) 54.2 9.5

Paperboards, paper & packaging 11.5 14.5 0.6 (4.9) (51.4) (7.2) (14.7) 13.1 145.3

Overall EBIT growth 8.7 8.5 6.5 (11.5) (42.3) (14.5) (9.4) 8.2 48.6

EBIT margins

FMCG-Cigarettes 70.8 72.2 70.7 74.7 72.2 75.0 73.4 73.4 73.5

FMCG-Others 2.5 2.8 3.2 4.6 3.7 6.7 5.8 5.1 4.7

Hotels 2.6 4.1 15.8 9.1 NM NM NM NM NM

Agribusiness 5.6 9.4 10.2 6.5 4.8 8.6 7.9 5.6 4.8

Paperboards, paper & packaging 21.6 22.7 21.5 19.6 15.6 22.6 19.3 19.5 24.8

Overall EBIT margins 39.3 38.8 37.8 37.3 29.1 35.1 34.8 32.9 31.6

Source: Company, Edelweiss Research

Innovations from ITC

Source: Company

ITC

Edelweiss Securities Limited

4 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset

Innovations from ITC

Source: Company

Excerpts from ITC’s press release

Cigarettes

The strong volume recovery momentum witnessed in the second half of

FY21 was impacted by localised lockdowns and restricted store operation

in the wake of second wave of the pandemic.

Product accessibility was sustained despite market disruptions, using strong

distribution network. Rural servicing infrastructure was scaled up 3x and 1.2x of

base quarter levels.

Certain markets in the South, metro cities and towns were more impacted.

After severe disruptions in May there has been a week on week pick up from

mid-June with most markets returning to normalcy.

Certain parts of Kerala, Odisha and the North East remain partially impacted.

Several innovative variants differentiated on vectors of flavour, filtration and

packaging format such as Classic Connect, Gold Flake Neo SMART Filter, Wave

Boss & Flake Nova have been launched in recent months

Edelweiss Securities Limited

ITC

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset 5

Cigarette volumes

Source: Company

FMCG – Others

FMCG business saw strong second covid wave impact.

The second wave too triggered a demand uptick in staples and

in convenience foods.

The trend of consumers stocking up essentials was far less pronounced in

comparison to the lockdown phase last year. Heightened concerns on hygiene

& safety continued to manifest in consumers’ preference for trusted brands.

Savlon range of Hygiene products bounced back, normalizing at elevated levels

in H2FY21 to deliver a robust growth.

Discretionary products witnessed strong growth on a favourable base.

Second wave impacted sequential performance although magnitude was lower

compared to first wave.

Unlike first wave when there was surge in demand for staple and convenience

food there was a mild uptick this time.

Market and outlet coverage is at 1.4x and 1.1x respectively compared to pre‐

Covid levels.

FMCG sales in e-commerce more than doubled, taking its salience to 8% of

segment revenue

ITC e-store is now operational in 11 cities.

Branded packaged food

Aashirvaad and Yippee brands fortified their position with new variants and good

growth

Recent launched in Sunfeast brand includes include Sunfeast All Rounder, Choco

Crème and Vanilla Crème, Sunfeast Dark fantasy Choco nut fill. All of them have

received good response so far

Operations of Sunrise have been fully integrated with the Branded Packag

ed Foods Businesses of the Company.

-50.0

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(Cig

aret

te v

olu

me

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wth

%)

ITC

Edelweiss Securities Limited

6 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset

Personal care

Savlon sustained good growth despite high base due to launch of disinfectant

product range

Fiama cooling gel bar Methanol and Magnolia and Savlon cool Hexa were

launched during the quarter

Mangaldeep showed robust growth on favourable base

FMCG EBITDA margin

Source: Company

Hotels

Second wave led to fresh restrictions on mobility and travel which impacted

business

Despite all the challenges, the domestic leisure segment saw some uptick

Flavours and Gourmet couch home delivery offerings did well.

ITC Windsor became the first in the world to receive prestigious LEED Zero

Carbon Certification

Paper, Paperboards and Packaging

The Paperboards, Paper and Packaging segment revenue was up 54%YoY driven

by value-added and décor paper.

The segment saw significant expansion in margin led by expansion of in-house

pulp manufacturing and cost control.

Agri business

Strong growth in Wheat, Rice & Leaf Tobacco exports and Soya in the domestic

market.

Business remains focused on its strategy to rapidly scale up value added

products.

Major customers saw no disruptions in supply.

0.0

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6.0

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10.0

Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22

(%)

FMCG EBITDA margin (%)

Edelweiss Securities Limited

ITC

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset 7

Segmental performance

Year to March - Net Revenues (INR mn) Q1FY22 Q1FY21 % growth YoY Q4FY21 % growth QoQ

Cigarettes (Note 1) 43,802 32,634 34.2 49,973 (12.3)

FMCG - Others 37,256 33,746 10.4 36,875 1.0

Hotels 1,272 226 463.5 2,878 (55.8)

Agribusiness 40,913 37,463 9.2 33,689 21.4

Paperboards, paper & packaging 15,827 10,264 54.2 16,559 (4.4)

Less: Inter-segment revenue 17,645 25,881 (31.8) 8,363 111.0

Net income (Excl other income) 1,21,424 88,452 37.3 1,31,611 (7.7)

EBIT (INR mn)

FMCG-Cigarettes (Note 1) 32,209 23,564 36.7 36,665 (12.2)

FMCG-Others 1,734 1,254 38.3 1,886 (8.1)

Hotels (1,515) -2,426 NM (401) NM

Agribusiness 1,957 1,787 9.5 1,899 3.1

Paperboards, paper & packaging 3,928 1,601 145.3 3,233 21.5

Profit before tax (Excl other income) 38,315 25,781 48.6 43,281 (11.5)

Year to March - Margin Q1FY22 Q1FY21 bps exp y-o-y Q4FY21 bps exp q-o-q

Cigarettes (Note 1) 73.5 72.2 133 73.4 17

FMCG - Others 4.7 3.7 94 5.1 (46)

Hotels NM (1,074.3) NM (13.9) NM

Agribusiness 4.8 4.8 1 5.6 (85)

Paperboards, paper & packaging 24.8 15.6 922 19.5 530

Margin 31.6 29.1 241 32.9 (133)

Source: Company, Edelweiss Research

Note 1: Cigarette revenue decline and EBIT decline is directionally correct but quantification slightly exaggerated since excise is on manufacture

whereas revenue is recorded on actual sale.

ITC

Edelweiss Securities Limited

8 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset

Outlook and valuation: Needs more to re-rate; maintain ‘HOLD’

After the surprise rate hike in GST, there has been no change in rates during the GST

regime. However, the National Calamity Contingent Duty (NCCD) tax hike

announced during the Union budget 2020 raises concern that now the government

has two levers to tweak taxes—the Union budget and GST meetings. The price hike

may lead to better GST collections, but its impact on volumes needs to be

monitored. Milder rate hikes cannot be ruled out as GST collections have remained

sub-par.

For the FMCG business, the company would like to see market share gains across

most categories. Food continues to perform well while covid-19 has boosted sales

of hygiene products such as hand sanitizers, hand wash, antiseptic liquids and floor

cleaners in the personal care portfolio. EBITDA margin expansion is on the right

trajectory; management estimates double-digit EBITDA margin over the next few

quarters.

While the cigarette opportunity in India remains attractive given per capita

consumption, investing modalities have changed with ESG assuming a significant

role. We maintain ‘HOLD/SN’ with a TP of INR241. The stock is trading at 14.7x FY23E

EPS.

SoTP valuation

Dec 2022E Methodology Target

multiple

Per share

contribution

Cigs EPS 9.6 P/E 12x 115

FMCG Sales/Share 13.7 P/S 5x 69

Hotels EBITDA/Share 0.4 EV/EBITDA 10x 4

Agri EBITDA/Share 1.1 EV/EBITDA 15x 16

Paper EBITDA/Share 1.2 EV/EBITDA 15x 18

Net cash 18

Value of share 241

Source: Edelweiss Research

One-year forward P/E

Source: Edelweiss Research

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Edelweiss Securities Limited

ITC

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset 9

Financial snapshot

Year to March Q1FY22 Q1FY21 % change Q4FY21 % change FY21 FY22E FY23E

Net revenues 1,21,424 88,452 37.3 1,31,611 (7.7) 4,89,528 5,39,728 5,88,202

Other operating income 747 661 12.9 1,336 (44.1) 3,200 7,087 7,607

Total operating income 1,22,171 89,113 37.1 1,32,947 (8.1) 4,92,728 5,46,815 5,95,810

Consumption of raw materials etc. 57,861 39,469 46.6 60,762 (4.8) 2,01,314 2,05,096 2,20,576

Gross profit 64,310 49,644 29.5 72,185 (10.9) 2,91,413 3,41,718 3,75,234

Staff costs 7,341 6,969 5.3 7,356 (0.2) 44,633 45,877 49,997

Other expenditure 17,048 16,209 5.2 20,099 (15.2) 76,753 91,754 97,053

Total expenditure 24,389 23,178 5.2 27,455 (11.2) 1,21,386 1,37,631 1,47,051

EBITDA 39,922 26,466 50.8 44,730 (10.8) 1,70,027 2,04,088 2,28,183

Depreciation 3,955 3,982 (0.7) 3,880 1.9 16,456 18,693 20,193

EBIT 35,967 22,484 60.0 40,851 (12.0) 1,53,571 1,85,394 2,07,990

Other income 4,290 8,968 (52.2) 7,720 (44.4) 26,326 28,349 30,429

Interest Expense 103 168 (38.5) 31 228.7 446 639 662

Profit Before Tax 40,154 31,284 28.4 48,539 (17.3) 1,79,451 2,13,105 2,37,757

Provision for Tax 10,019 7,857 27.5 11,055 (9.4) 45,553 53,702 59,915

Reported Profit 30,135 23,428 28.6 37,484 (19.6) 1,33,829 1,59,326 1,77,759

Prior period (net of tax) 0 0 NM 0 NM 0 0 0

Exceptional items (net of tax) 0 0 NM 0 NM 0 0 0

Adjusted profit 30,135 23,428 28.6 37,484 (19.6) 1,33,829 1,59,326 1,77,759

No. of shares (mn) 12,305 12,247 12,305 12,302 12,302 12,302

EPS (INR) 2.4 1.9 28.0 3.0 (19.6) 10.9 13.0 14.4

as % of net revenues

COGS 47.4 44.3 307 45.7 166 40.9 37.5 37.0

Staff expenses 6.0 7.8 (181) 5.5 48 9.1 8.4 8.4

Other expenditure 14.0 18.2 (424) 15.1 (116) 15.6 16.8 16.3

EBITDA 32.7 29.7 298 33.6 (97) 34.5 37.3 38.3

EBIT 29.4 25.2 421 30.7 (129) 31.2 33.9 34.9

PBT 32.9 35.1 (224) 36.5 (364) 36.4 39.0 39.9

Net profit 24.7 26.3 (162) 28.2 (353) 27.2 29.1 29.8

Tax rate 25.0 25.1 (16) 22.8 218 25.4 25.2 25.2

Source: Company, Edelweiss Research

ITC

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Company Description

ITC is one of the largest consumer companies in India with businesses spanning

across cigarettes, hotels, paper and agri-commodities. Its branded foods division

with products such as staples, confectionery, noodle, snacks and biscuits is doing

well and gaining strong market share across many categories. ITC has been

successful in foods and is expanding its personal product portfolio (soaps, shampoos,

deo, talc). Though the cigarettes division is still the major source of revenue, other

businesses - fmcg, agri, paper and hotel have grown over the years.

Investment Theme

ITC has sustained its market leadership in the cigarettes space and delivered decent

performance (both topline and profitability) amidst heavy taxation burden. The e-

Choupal network established by ITC gives it a phenomenal sourcing edge, which has

helped it transform into a consumer giant especially in foods business. ITC’s FMCG

business has shown good operating profitability in FY19 onwards and we expect that

trend to improve going ahead. Paper business helps address packaging needs of

FMCG business with consistent quality and comparatively lower costs. Agri business

has seen robust performance aided by tobacco leaf and traded commodities

exports; provides strategic sourcing support to the company’s cigarette and branded

packaged foods businesses by ensuring high quality supplies. We expect ITC’s

cigarette EBIT growth to remain resilient and FMCG’s profitability surge to sustain.

Key Risks

High incidence of taxation and strict regulatory norms on cigarette usage in public

and packaging poses threat to cigarette volume growth. Growing contraband market

of cigarettes also poses significant threat for the cigarettes business. Slowdown in

macro-economic environment is a major threat to hotels business. SUUTI stake sale

is a likely overhang on the stock

Edelweiss Securities Limited

ITC

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset 11

Additional Data Management

MD and CEO Mr. Sanjiv Puri

CFO Mr. Rajiv Tandon

Executive Director

Mr. Nakul Anand

Executive Director

Mr. B Sumant

Auditor S R B C & CO LLP

Holdings – Top 10* % Holding % Holding

LIC 16.23 General Insuran 1.76

Unit Trust Of I 7.92 Icici Prudentia 1.70

Qib Insurance C 2.75 Capital Group C 1.70

Sbi Funds Manag 2.27 New India Assur 1.49

Hdfc Asset Mana 2.01 Oriental Insura 1.11

*Latest public data

Recent Company Research Date Title Price Reco

01-Jun-21 Rerating demands more ; Result Update

215.25 Hold

16-Apr-21 E-store: Capturing online opportunity; Company Update

206.7 Hold

11-Feb-21 A mixed bag; Result Update 226.45 Hold

Recent Sector Research Date Name of Co./Sector Title

22-Jul-21 Hindustan Unilever Strong volume; margins to look up in H2; Result Update

19-Jul-21 Godrej Consumer Holy smoke: Decoding HI resurgence; Company Update

13-Jul-21 Hindustan Unilever Upping smartness and ESG quotient; Company Update

Rating Interpretation

Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss research

Daily Volume

Source: Bloomberg

Rating Distribution: Edelweiss Research Coverage

Buy Hold Reduce Total

Rating Distribution* 170 54 19 244

>50bn >10bn and <50bn <10bn Total

Market Cap (INR) 214 40 5 259

*1 stocks under review

Rating Rationale

Rating Expected absolute returns over 12 months

Buy: >15%

Hold: >15% and <-5%

Reduce: <-5%

TP340

TP340 TP

315

TP250 TP

230

125

170

215

260

305

350

Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21

(IN

R)

ITC IN Equity Buy Hold Reduce0

30

60

90

120

150

Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21

(Mn

)

ITC

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ITC

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