issue no. 1089, 08 november 2013

Issue No.1089, 08 November 2013 The following articles, papers or documents do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the United States Air

Force, Department of Defense, or other US government agencies. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved.

United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL

Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

Issue No. 1089, 08 November 2013

Articles & Other Documents:

Featured Article: Hagel: Combating Terrorism, WMDs to Figure Into Coming Military Strategy

1. Khamenei Is Not ‘Optimistic’ but Supports Iran Nuclear Talks 2. Kerry to Saudis: US Will Not Let Iran Acquire Nuclear Weapons 3. Iran Hard-Liners Blast Tehran's Diplomacy 4. Iran Calls for ‘Total Elimination’ of Nuclear Weapons 5. State TV: U.N. Nuclear Chief Plans to Visit Iran Next Week 6. Iran Negotiator Says Outline of Nuclear Deal Possible this Week 7. Saudi Nuclear Weapons 'On Order' from Pakistan 8. World Powers Seek "First Step" Nuclear Deal with Iran in Geneva Talks 9. Iran Nuclear Talks Reach Critical Stage: Araqchi 10. John Kerry Says No Iran Nuclear Deal yet 11. China Reveals its Ability to Nuke the US: Government Boasts about new Submarine Fleet Capable of Launching Warheads at Cities across the Nation 12. Pyongyang Making ICBM Gains: Report 13. North Korea Developing Electromagnetic Pulse Weapons: Report 14. PACOM Chief Plans for North Korea Missile Threat 15. N.Korea 'Has the Edge in Nuclear, Biochemical Weapons' 16. China Calls for 'Wisdom' to Resume N. Korea Nuclear Talks 17. China Deploys New Bomber with Long-Range Land Attack Missile 18. India Launches Mars Mission 19. Pakistan Successfully Test Fires Hatf IX 20. Nuclear Proliferation: FO Denies Pakistan-S Arabia N-Bomb Deal 21. Nuclear-Capable Agni-I Ballistic Missile Successfully Test-Fired 22. Russian-Japanese Talks Focus on US Missile Defense Plans 23. Russian Strategic Bombers Complete South American Mission 24. Russia to Deploy More Yars Ballistic Missiles by Year-End 25. ABM System in Europe is the Main Stumbling Block of Russian-American Relations – Expert 26. Radio Silence 27. Hagel: Combating Terrorism, WMDs to Figure Into Coming Military Strategy 28. USAF Planning to Develop New Means of Nuclear Deterrence 29. Meads Scores Against Ballistic, Cruise Missiles in Major Test 30. Push to Upgrade AF's Nuclear Arsenal Faces Opposition 31. A Smarter Pentagon Budget – OpEd 32. U.S. Would Benefit from Fixing the Problems with Missile Defense 33. State Media Boasts of China’s Ability to Nuke US Cities 34. NCA’s ‘Full Spectrum’ Response 35. Pak-Salvo Missile to Deter Indian-Cold Start Doctrine

Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal. As part of USAF Counterproliferation Center’s mission to counter weapons of mass destruction through education and research, we’re providing our government and civilian community a source for timely counterproliferation information. This information includes articles, papers and other documents addressing issues pertinent to US military response options for dealing with chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats

and countermeasures. It’s our hope this information resource will help enhance your counterproliferation issue awareness.

Established in 1998, the USAF/CPC provides education and research to present and future leaders of the Air Force, as well as to members of other branches of the armed services and Department of Defense. Our purpose is to help those agencies better prepare to counter the threat from weapons of mass destruction. Please feel free to visit our web site at http://cpc.au.af.mil/ for in-depth information and specific points of contact. The following articles, papers or documents

do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or other US government agencies. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved.


United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

Al Arabiya – U.A.E.

Khamenei Is Not ‘Optimistic’ but Supports Iran Nuclear Talks Sunday, 3 November 2013 Al Arabiya/with Agence France-Presse (AFP)

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei expressed his support on Sunday for Iran’s nuclear talks but said he was not optimistic.

“No one should see our negotiating team as compromisers,”Khamenei was quoted as saying on his official website, Agence France-Presse reported.

“I am not optimistic about the (nuclear) negotiations but, with the grace of God, we will not suffer losses either,” he added.

A new round of talks between Iranian negotiators and representatives from the P5+1 group of world powers is due to take place in Geneva for November 7 and 8.

The talks are aimed at reducing Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for a relief from international sanctions.

Decisions on the disputed nuclear program which the West and Israel suspect is aimed at atomic weapons, widely rely on Khameini.

“All the better if the negotiations bear fruit but if there are no results, the country should rely on itself," Khamenei was quoted as saying by AFP while criticizing the U.S. policy of approaching the talks on two fronts of sanctions and diplomacy.

“The Americans smile and express desire for negotiation; on the other hand, they immediately say that all options are on the table,” he said. “We should not trust a smiling enemy.”

Khameini has also described Iran’s arch enemy Israel as an “illegitimate and bastard” regime as he also criticized the U.S. for supporting it.

“The Zionist regime is an illegitimate and bastard regime,” he was quoted as saying in remarks carried by AFP from his website.

“The Americans have the highest indulgence towards the Zionists and they have to. But we do not share such indulgence.”

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/11/03/Khamenei-is-not-optimistic-but-support-Iran-nuclear-talks-.html

(Return to Articles and Documents List) The Jerusalem Post – Israel

Kerry to Saudis: US Will Not Let Iran Acquire Nuclear Weapons Reuters 4 November 2013

US Secretary of State John Kerry said Monday the US would not let Iran acquire nuclear weapons.

Kerry was speaking in Riyadh at a joint news conference with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal after talks with King Abdullah.

Kerry reiterated that the United States was determined Iran would not get a nuclear weapon and promised to keep Saudi leaders abreast of any talks with Tehran, saying there would be "no surprises". Iran says it is enriching uranium only for civilian energy purposes.





Saudi concerns are partly founded on a fear that President Barack Obama's moves to reduce tensions with Iran will give Riyadh's main regional adversary an opportunity to extend its influence in Arab countries.

http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Kerry-to-Saudis-US-will-not-let-Iran-acquire-nuclear-weapons-330579

(Return to Articles and Documents List) The Wall Street Journal

Iran Hard-Liners Blast Tehran's Diplomacy Several Thousand Used an Annual Anti-American Demonstration to Show Their Opposition to New diplomacy with the West By Farnaz Fassihi November 4, 2013

Protesters display a representation of the Statue of Liberty during a demonstration in Tehran on Monday. Associated Press

Several thousand Iranian hard-liners used an annual anti-American demonstration to show their opposition to their government's new diplomacy with the West, underlining the country's divisions over the issue.

During the annual ceremony commemorating the takeover of the American Embassy in Tehran 34 years ago, the crowds took aim at President Hasan Rouhani's efforts to resolve the nuclear standoff with the West and normalize relations with the U.S.

Many of them chanted "Death to America" as they burned the American flag while carrying effigies of President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry.

"Our enemies claim that foreign diplomacy should be pragmatic not ideological," said Saeed Jalili, Iran's former chief nuclear negotiator and presidential candidate. "By claiming to be pragmatic they are departing from the path of the Imam [Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini], founder of the revolution."

Iranian hard-liners have been intent on undermining the new government's diplomacy with the West. In recent weeks, some government officials, members of the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards and popular Imans have published harsh newspaper editorials, railed against the effort during Friday prayer sermons and plastered banners across Tehran depicting the U.S. as a dishonest negotiating partner. They have openly encouraged supporters to show up for protests.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spoke out on Sunday against criticizing the government's strategy in the nuclear talks and said "no one should label them as compromisers."

He added: "They have a difficult mission and no one should weaken them while they are carrying out this mission."

More ordinary supporters of Mr. Rouhani also spoke out on Monday. A group of 30 university student groups from around the country, considered among the most political and influential, signed a statement calling for ending the current standoff through new diplomatic means.

"Our yearning for independence does not mean that we want to be isolated and provocative in our foreign diplomacy," said the student statement.

At stake is the new Rouhani government's efforts to negotiate an end to crippling sanctions aimed against Tehran's nuclear program, which the West believes is aimed at creating weapons but Iran says is for peaceful purposes. The effort gathered momentum last month during two days of talks in which diplomats said they hashed out the broad outlines of a potential deal.

On Thursday in Geneva, Iranian negotiators will meet with the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, plus Germany.

http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Kerry-to-Saudis-US-will-not-let-Iran-acquire-nuclear-weapons-330579



Perhaps sensing an agreement is possible, hard-liners have stepped up their criticism of the new government, most recently on Monday at the embassy protest.

Some protesters installed billboards along the route to the embassy that questioned the U.S.'s sincerity in talks with Iran, in an open act of defiance against the government. Similar billboards had been placed around Tehran last week but then removed by the government.

Mr. Jalili, whose handling of the nuclear talks was blasted by his opponents and voters during the campaign, harshly criticized the new government in his keynote speech while standing at a podium with the words "Death to America" written in bold letters in Persian, English and Arabic.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304391204579178110358822626

(Return to Articles and Documents List) Press TV – Iran

Iran Calls for ‘Total Elimination’ of Nuclear Weapons Tuesday, November 5, 2013

The Iranian ambassador to the United Nations has called for the “total elimination” of all nuclear arms, describing such weapons as the “greatest threat” to humanity.

“Nuclear weapons are the greatest threat to our life, to the life of our children, to the present and future generations, to the security of our planet and the whole humanity,” Mohammad Khazaei told a meeting of the Disarmament and International Security Committee of the UN General Assembly on Monday.

The Iranian envoy further called for global disarmament and stressed that, “The total elimination of these inhuman weapons is the only absolute guarantee against their threat or use.”

Khazaei made the comments after the UN General Assembly’s First Committee passed a disarmament resolution that called for the abolition of all nuclear weapons.

The resolution, which had the support of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), was put forward by Iran. It was approved with 129 votes in favor, 28 against, and 19 abstentions.

According to Ambassador Khazaei, Tehran’s three recommendations, made by Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani at the General Assembly meeting in September, had also been included in the resolution.

Rouhani’s suggestions include the assignment of September 26 of each year as the international day for the full elimination of nuclear arms, the holding of a high-level summit on nuclear disarmament in 2018 and the immediate beginning of talks to sign an international convention aimed at banning such weapons.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/11/05/333070/iran-urges-elimination-of-nuclear-arms/

(Return to Articles and Documents List) Al Arabiya – U.A.E.

State TV: U.N. Nuclear Chief Plans to Visit Iran Next Week Tuesday, 5 November 2013 Al Arabiya/with Agence France-Presse (AFP) and Reuters

U.N. nuclear agency Chief Yukiya Amano is expected to visit Tehran on Nov. 11, Iranian state television said on Tuesday. The report comes as a possible sign of progress in the long-stalled investigation into suspected nuclear arms development by the country.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304391204579178110358822626

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/11/05/333070/iran-urges-elimination-of-nuclear-arms/



The head of Iran’s atomic energy organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, said he hoped the two sides would reach an agreement during Amano's visit, state television said on its web site, without giving details, Reuters reported.

Since early 2012, the International Atomic Energy Agency and Iran have held a series of fruitless meetings to agree ground rules for the IAEA inquiry investigation.

Iran says its nuclear program is geared solely towards civilian atomic energy and denies seeking nuclear weapons.

After talks last week between senior IAEA and Iranian officials in Vienna, described by both sides as “very productive,” a new round was set for Nov. 11 in Tehran, but without any word on Amano possibly taking part.

According to Iranian state television, Salehi hopes “to reach an agreement with the director of the InternationalAtomic Energy Agency and issue a joint statement,” the website of state broadcaster IRIB quoted him as saying, according to Agence France-Presse.

There was no immediate comment from the IAEA.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/world/2013/11/05/State-TV-U-N-nuclear-chief-plans-to-visit-Iran-next-week.html

(Return to Articles and Documents List) Jerusalem Post – Israel

Iran Negotiator Says Outline of Nuclear Deal Possible this Week FM Zarif says framework deal possible, but no disaster if there was further delay; Fabius: Nuclear talks can't last forever. By REUTERS, JPOST.COM STAFF 5 November 2013

PARIS - Iran's top negotiator said on Tuesday that a framework deal with world powers on its nuclear program was "possible this week", although it would not be a disaster if there were a further delay, while France's foreign minister warned negotiations can't last forever.

Iran resumes negotiations in Geneva on Thursday with six world powers known as the "P5+1" - the United States, Russia, France, Britain, China and Germany. The talks are aimed at ending a standoff over the nuclear program, which Western powers suspect may be aimed at developing nuclear weapons, despite Iran's denials.

"I believe there is a lot of work to be done. We have made some progress, but there is a great deal of mistrust in Iran concerning the attitude, behavior and approach of some members of the P5+1," Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told France 24 television during a visit to Paris.

"If we don't make a breakthrough at this round, it's not a disaster."

Zarif's counterpart French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, however, warned that nuclear negotiations cannot last forever, AFP reported.

"It is necessary for Iran to respond in a concrete and verifiable manner to the concerns of the international community and ... the time for negotiations is not unlimited," Fabius told Zarif during a meeting in Paris, a statement from his spokesman said.

Since the relative moderate Hassan Rouhani was elected president in June, Iran has suggested greater willingness to negotiate a resolution to the standoff.

Zarif said all sides had boxed themselves into an unnecessary crisis over the last eight years, and reiterated that Tehran did not seek nuclear weapons.

"Even the perception that we are seeking nuclear weapons is detrimental to our security," he said.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/world/2013/11/05/State-TV-U-N-nuclear-chief-plans-to-visit-Iran-next-week.html



Zarif, who met his French counterpart Laurent Fabius in Paris for the third time in as many months ahead of a speech at the UN cultural agency UNESCO on Wednesday, said a framework agreement could be achieved with political will on all sides.

"We need to see an end game that we can all agree on and take a first step on all sides," said Zarif, who is Iran's chief negotiator at the talks. "It's not that difficult to reach that agreement and it's even possible during this (Geneva) meeting."

He said recent talks with the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, had been positive, as had a meeting between technical experts to prepare for Thursday's meeting in Geneva.

"I believe we have come very far, so we need to take a few more steps," he said. "We are prepared to take them in Geneva but, if we can't there, then in the next round."

French Foreign Ministry spokesman Romain Nadal said Fabius hoped the Geneva talks would lead to quick results.

"Iran must respond in a concrete and verifiable way to the concerns of the international community, because negotiations cannot be indefinite," Nadal said.

Paris has been one of the strongest advocates of sanctions to put pressure on Iran over its nuclear program.

French President Francois Hollande was the first Western leader to meet President Rouhani during the annual meeting of the UN General Assembly in September.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran-negotiator-says-outline-nuclear-deal-possible-this-week-330725

(Return to Articles and Documents List) BBC (British Broadcasting Corporation) News – U.K.

Saudi Nuclear Weapons 'On Order' from Pakistan By Mark Urban, Diplomatic and defence editor, Newsnight 6 November 2013

Saudi Arabia has invested in Pakistani nuclear weapons projects, and believes it could obtain atomic bombs at will, a variety of sources have told BBC Newsnight.

While the kingdom's quest has often been set in the context of countering Iran's atomic programme, it is now possible that the Saudis might be able to deploy such devices more quickly than the Islamic republic.

Earlier this year, a senior Nato decision maker told me that he had seen intelligence reporting that nuclear weapons made in Pakistan on behalf of Saudi Arabia are now sitting ready for delivery.

Last month Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence, told a conference in Sweden that if Iran got the bomb, "the Saudis will not wait one month. They already paid for the bomb, they will go to Pakistan and bring what they need to bring."

Since 2009, when King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia warned visiting US special envoy to the Middle East Dennis Ross that if Iran crossed the threshold, "we will get nuclear weapons", the kingdom has sent the Americans numerous signals of its intentions.

Gary Samore, until March 2013 President Barack Obama's counter-proliferation adviser, has told Newsnight:

"I do think that the Saudis believe that they have some understanding with Pakistan that, in extremis, they would have claim to acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan."

The story of Saudi Arabia's project - including the acquisition of missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads over long ranges - goes back decades.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran-negotiator-says-outline-nuclear-deal-possible-this-week-330725



In the late 1980s they secretly bought dozens of CSS-2 ballistic missiles from China.

These rockets, considered by many experts too inaccurate for use as conventional weapons, were deployed 20 years ago.

This summer experts at defence publishers Jane's reported the completion of a new Saudi CSS-2 base with missile launch rails aligned with Israel and Iran.

It has also been clear for many years that Saudi Arabia has given generous financial assistance to Pakistan's defence sector, including, western experts allege, to its missile and nuclear labs.

Visits by the then Saudi defence minister Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz al Saud to the Pakistani nuclear research centre in 1999 and 2002 underlined the closeness of the defence relationship.

Defence publisher Jane’s revealed the existence of Saudi Arabia’s third and undisclosed intermediate-range ballistic missile site, approximately 200 km southwest of Riyadh

In its quest for a strategic deterrent against India, Pakistan co-operated closely with China which sold them missiles and provided the design for a nuclear warhead.

The Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan was accused by western intelligence agencies of selling atomic know-how and uranium enrichment centrifuges to Libya and North Korea.

AQ Khan is also believed to have passed the Chinese nuclear weapon design to those countries. This blueprint was for a device engineered to fit on the CSS-2 missile, i.e the same type sold to Saudi Arabia.

Because of this circumstantial evidence, allegations of a Saudi-Pakistani nuclear deal started to circulate even in the 1990s, but were denied by Saudi officials.

They noted that their country had signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and called for a nuclear-free Middle East, pointing to Israel's possession of such weapons.

The fact that handing over atom bombs to a foreign government could create huge political difficulties for Pakistan, not least with the World Bank and other donors, added to scepticism about those early claims.

In Eating the Grass, his semi-official history of the Pakistani nuclear program, Major General Feroz Hassan Khan wrote that Prince Sultan's visits to Pakistan's atomic labs were not proof of an agreement between the two countries. But he acknowledged, "Saudi Arabia provided generous financial support to Pakistan that enabled the nuclear program to continue."

Whatever understandings did or did not exist between the two countries in the 1990s, it was around 2003 that the kingdom started serious strategic thinking about its changing security environment and the prospect of nuclear proliferation.

A paper leaked that year by senior Saudi officials mapped out three possible responses - to acquire their own nuclear weapons, to enter into an arrangement with another nuclear power to protect the kingdom, or to rely on the establishment of a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East.

It was around the same time, following the US invasion of Iraq, that serious strains in the US/Saudi relationship began to show themselves, says Gary Samore.

The Saudis resented the removal of Saddam Hussein, had long been unhappy about US policy on Israel, and were growing increasingly concerned about the Iranian nuclear program.

In the years that followed, diplomatic chatter about Saudi-Pakistani nuclear cooperation began to increase.

In 2007, the US mission in Riyadh noted they were being asked questions by Pakistani diplomats about US knowledge of "Saudi-Pakistani nuclear cooperation".



The unnamed Pakistanis opined that "it is logical for the Saudis to step in as the physical 'protector'" of the Arab world by seeking nuclear weapons, according to one of the State Department cables posted by W---leaks.

By the end of that decade Saudi princes and officials were giving explicit warnings of their intention to acquire nuclear weapons if Iran did.

Having warned the Americans in private for years, last year Saudi officials in Riyadh escalated it to a public warning, telling a journalist from the Times "it would be completely unacceptable to have Iran with a nuclear capability and not the kingdom".

But were these statements bluster, aimed at forcing a stronger US line on Iran, or were they evidence of a deliberate, long-term plan for a Saudi bomb? Both, is the answer I have received from former key officials.

One senior Pakistani, speaking on background terms, confirmed the broad nature of the deal - probably unwritten - his country had reached with the kingdom and asked rhetorically "what did we think the Saudis were giving us all that money for? It wasn't charity."

Another, a one-time intelligence officer from the same country, said he believed "the Pakistanis certainly maintain a certain number of warheads on the basis that if the Saudis were to ask for them at any given time they would immediately be transferred."

As for the seriousness of the Saudi threat to make good on the deal, Simon Henderson, Director of the Global Gulf and Energy Policy Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told BBC Newsnight "the Saudis speak about Iran and nuclear matters very seriously. They don't bluff on this issue."

Talking to many serving and former officials about this over the past few months, the only real debate I have found is about how exactly the Saudi Arabians would redeem the bargain with Pakistan.

Some think it is a cash-and-carry deal for warheads, the first of those options sketched out by the Saudis back in 2003; others that it is the second, an arrangement under which Pakistani nuclear forces could be deployed in the kingdom.

Gary Samore, considering these questions at the centre of the US intelligence and policy web, at the White House until earlier this year, thinks that what he calls, "the Nato model", is more likely.

However ,"I think just giving Saudi Arabia a handful of nuclear weapons would be a very provocative action", says Gary Samore.

He adds: "I've always thought it was much more likely - the most likely option if Pakistan were to honour any agreement would be for be for Pakistan to send its own forces, its own troops armed with nuclear weapons and with delivery systems to be deployed in Saudi Arabia".

This would give a big political advantage to Pakistan since it would allow them to deny that they had simply handed over the weapons, but implies a dual key system in which they would need to agree in order for 'Saudi Arabian' "nukes" to be launched.

Others I have spoken to think this is not credible, since Saudi Arabia, which regards itself as the leader of the broader Sunni Islamic 'ummah' or community, would want complete control of its nuclear deterrent, particularly at this time of worsening sectarian confrontation with Shia Iran.

And it is Israeli information - that Saudi Arabia is now ready to take delivery of finished warheads for its long-range missiles - that informs some recent US and Nato intelligence reporting. Israel of course shares Saudi Arabia's motive in wanting to worry the US into containing Iran.

Amos Yadlin declined to be interviewed for our BBC Newsnight report, but told me by email that "unlike other potential regional threats, the Saudi one is very credible and imminent."



Even if this view is accurate there are many good reasons for Saudi Arabia to leave its nuclear warheads in Pakistan for the time being.

Doing so allows the kingdom to deny there are any on its soil. It avoids challenging Iran to cross the nuclear threshold in response, and it insulates Pakistan from the international opprobrium of being seen to operate an atomic cash-and-carry.

These assumptions though may not be safe for much longer. The US diplomatic thaw with Iran has touched deep insecurities in Riyadh, which fears that any deal to constrain the Islamic republic's nuclear program would be ineffective.

Earlier this month the Saudi intelligence chief and former ambassador to Washington Prince Bandar announced that the kingdom would be distancing itself more from the US.

While investigating this, I have heard rumours on the diplomatic grapevine, that Pakistan has recently actually delivered Shaheen mobile ballistic missiles to Saudi Arabia, minus warheads.

These reports, still unconfirmed, would suggest an ability to deploy nuclear weapons in the kingdom, and mount them on an effective, modern, missile system more quickly than some analysts had previously imagined.

In Egypt, Saudi Arabia showed itself ready to step in with large-scale backing following the military overthrow of President Mohammed Morsi's government.

There is a message here for Pakistan, of Riyadh being ready to replace US military assistance or World Bank loans, if standing with Saudi Arabia causes a country to lose them.

Newsnight contacted both the Pakistani and Saudi governments. The Pakistan Foreign Ministry has described our story as "speculative, mischievous and baseless".

It adds: "Pakistan is a responsible nuclear weapon state with robust command and control structures and comprehensive export controls."

The Saudi embassy in London has also issued a statement pointing out that the Kingdom is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and has worked for a nuclear free Middle East.

But it also points out that the UN's "failure to make the Middle East a nuclear free zone is one of the reasons the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia rejected the offer of a seat on the UN Security Council".

It says the Saudi Foreign Minister has stressed that this lack of international action "has put the region under the threat of a time bomb that cannot easily be defused by manoeuvring around it".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24823846

(Return to Articles and Documents List) NBC News.com

World Powers Seek "First Step" Nuclear Deal with Iran in Geneva Talks By Justyna Pawlak and Fredrik Dahl, Reuters November 6, 2013

GENEVA — World powers will seek to hammer out a breakthrough deal with Iran to start resolving a decade-old dispute over its nuclear program in two-day talks that begin on Thursday, though both sides say an agreement is far from certain.

The United States and its allies say they are encouraged by Tehran's shift to friendlier rhetoric after years of hostility since the June election of President Hassan Rouhani, who has pledged to repair ties with the West and win sanctions relief.




But they stress Iran needs to back its words with action and take concrete steps to scale back its atomic work, which they suspect has covert military aims, a charge Tehran denies.

"What we're looking for is a first phase, a first step, an initial understanding that stops Iran's nuclear program from moving forward and rolls it back for the first time in decades," a senior U.S. official told reporters on the eve of the talks.

That would help buy time needed for Iran and the six powers - the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany - to reach a broader diplomatic settlement in a dispute that could otherwise plunge the Middle East into a new war.

The six nations want Iran to suspend its most sensitive uranium enrichment efforts, reduce its stockpile of such material and diminish its capacity to produce it in the future.

In return for any concessions, Iran wants the powers to lift painful economic sanctions that have slashed its daily oil sales revenues by 60 percent in the last two years and devalued its rial currency by more than half.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told French daily Le Monde a deal was "not that far off" though it might not be struck at the Nov. 7-8 talks in Geneva.

"We can conclude (a deal) this week in Geneva, and if that's not the case it's not a disaster, as long as things are moving forward," he was quoted as saying.

ISRAEL SEES "BAD DEAL"

The exact contours of a potential first step in the elusive deal were unclear, but the six nations are unlikely to agree on anything less than a suspension of enrichment of uranium to 20 percent fissile purity, a level that constitutes a major advance on the way to making weapons.

"The nuclear talks are complex and have entered a serious phase," said Michael Mann, spokesman for European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who oversees the talks with Iran on behalf of the powers. "We have to make concrete progress."

The U.S. official said that at this stage Iran must address key aspects of its nuclear program, including sufficient international monitoring. Iran's construction of a research reactor near the town of Arak is also a growing concern for the West because it could yield plutonium for bombs.

"We're looking for ways to put additional time on the clock," the administration official added.

Another diplomat from the six nations said any agreement reached in Geneva could address some of the international concerns, but not all, leaving other issues to be discussed in future rounds of talks.

"What could be possible is a concrete agreement on a concrete step. But I cannot judge the scope of the step. It is difficult to judge it," the diplomat said.

Western diplomats are hesitant to divulge specifics about the negotiations due to sensitivities involved - both in Tehran, where conservative hardliners are skeptical about striking deals that could curtail the nuclear program, and in Washington, where hawks oppose a precipitate easing of sanctions.

An Israeli official said on Wednesday that the six powers and Iran were expected to discuss in Geneva a deal that would fall far short of Israeli expectations.

"We have learned in the last few hours that tomorrow at the ... talks in Geneva, a proposal will be examined under which Iran will cease enrichment at 20 percent and they will slow down the activity at the heavy water reactor at Arak, in exchange for which they will get sanctions relief," the official said.

"From Israel's point of view, this is a very bad deal, and we will strongly oppose these proposals."



Widely assumed to be the Middle East's only nuclear power, Israel views Iran as an existential threat and has warned it could launch pre-emptive strikes against Iranian nuclear sites if diplomacy fails to stop the program.

Tehran says it needs nuclear energy for electricity generation and medical purposes.

In a sign of potential progress, a Vienna-based envoy said U.N. nuclear chief Yukiya Amano was likely to travel to Tehran on Monday for a possible agreement with Iran on some "first steps" towards greater transparency, including regarding design information about nuclear facilities.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, which is pursuing separate negotiations with Iran, confirmed on Monday that Amano had been invited and that the issue was "being considered".

Diplomats say he would probably only go if he was confident that a deal would be struck.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/06/21337216-world-powers-seek-first-step-nuclear-deal-with-iran-in-geneva-talks

(Return to Articles and Documents List) Press TV – Iran

Iran Nuclear Talks Reach Critical Stage: Araqchi Friday, November 8, 2013

Iranian deputy foreign minister and member of Iran’s negotiating team, Abbas Araqchi, says the nuclear talks with six world powers have reached a critical stage, saying higher-level talks are now necessary.

“Talks have now reached sensitive and complicated phases and it is necessary that *the talks+ continue at higher levels,” Araqchi told reporters in Geneva, where the nuclear talks are underway, on Friday.

“Fortunately, expert-level talks about the text [of a possible agreement] have made good progress between experts from both sides,” he said, adding that it was too early, however, to predict if the talks would reach a conclusion on Friday.

The talks about Iran’s nuclear energy program started between Iran and the six world powers -- the US, France, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany -- in Geneva on Thursday.

Araqchi also stated that Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif is to attend tripartite talks with EU foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, and US Secretary of State John Kerry.

He added that Zarif is also to meet with British Foreign Secretary William Hague, French Foreign Minister Lauren Fabius and German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle.

Araqchi reaffirmed Iran’s right to enrich uranium, but said Tehran is ready to “negotiate about the dimensions, type and level of enrichment.”

Kerry arrived in Geneva on Friday to join Iran’s foreign minister and Ashton, who is representing six world powers in the nuclear talks.

Earlier in the day, Westerwelle said he believes that an important moment has arrived in the negotiations with Iran over its nuclear energy program.

For his part, Fabius said Iran and six world powers have made progress in the course of their nuclear talks, noting that no deal has been struck between the two sides yet.

Meanwhile, hawkish Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has described a possible agreement in the course of nuclear talks between Iran and six major world powers as a “bad deal.”

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/11/08/333658/iran-nuclear-talks-reach-critical-stage/



http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/11/08/333658/iran-nuclear-talks-reach-critical-stage/



(Return to Articles and Documents List) BBC (British Broadcasting Corporation) News – U.K. 8 November 2013

John Kerry Says No Iran Nuclear Deal yet US Secretary of State John Kerry has stressed that no agreement has yet been reached on Iran's nuclear programme, as he arrived for key talks in Geneva.

He has joined the UK, French and German foreign ministers for unscheduled talks with Iranian representatives.

Under a deal that has been floated Iran is expected to halt some enrichment activity for limited sanctions relief.

Israel's PM said he "utterly rejected" such a deal and that his country would not be obliged to abide by it.

'Important gaps'

The BBC's James Reynolds, in Geneva, says that for years Iranian nuclear talks have moved ahead slowly - if at all. But he says that, following the arrival of a new Iranian President - Hassan Rouhani - the talks here are progressing quickly.

However, although the sides appear closer to a breakthrough than during previous talks, the outcome still remains uncertain.

Mr Kerry interrupted the itinerary of his tour to the Middle East and North Africa to fly to Geneva after meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem.

Mr Kerry is expected to hold a series of meetings, including a trilateral with top EU diplomat Catherine Ashton and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

On arrival he said: "I am delighted to be here at the invitation of Catherine Ashton to try to work with colleagues to see if we can narrow some differences.

"There are still some things on the table that are unresolved. I want to emphasise there is not an agreement at this point.

"[We] hope to try to narrow the differences but no-one should mistake that there are important gaps to be closed."

The French, German and UK Foreign Ministers - Laurent Fabius, Guido Westerwelle and William Hague - have also arrived in Geneva.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is not expected to attend the talks but Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov is in the city.

A spokesman for UK PM David Cameron said it was hoped the presence of Mr Hague could aid the talks.

"It is for Iran to be able to convince the international community that it is able to address the deep concerns that the international community has," the spokesman said.

The E3+3 groups the UK, France and Germany plus the US, Russia and China. It is more commonly known as the P5+1 - the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany.

Friday prayer leaders across Iran have urged the public to support the nuclear negotiating team, the Irna news agency reports.

The imam in Qom, Hojjat ol-Eslam Seyyed Mohammad Saidi, was quoted as telling worshippers: "The Islamic Iran under the leadership of the eminent leader supports talks with Westerners, but from a position of strength and with dignity."

'Bad deal'



Mr Zarif said on Friday there was "the general outline of an agreement".

He said: "We have now entered the very difficult and sensitive phase of editing the text that will be published, should the talks reach an agreement soon."

Although details of the suggested deal have not been disclosed, it is thought to offer Iran a gradual easing of sanctions in return for a freeze on expansion of nuclear activities.

Mr Netanyahu said agreeing the deal would be a serious mistake.

He said: "Everything [Iran] wanted, they wanted relief of sanctions after years of a gruelling sanctions regime, they got that. They are paying nothing because they are not reducing in any way their nuclear enrichment capability.

"Iran got the deal of the century and the international community got a bad deal, this is a very bad deal. Israel utterly rejects it.

"Israel is not obliged by this agreement and Israel will do everything it needs to do to defend itself and the security of its people."

Since 2006 the UN Security Council has imposed a series of sanctions - including asset freezes and travel bans - on entities and people involved in Iran's nuclear programme.

Separate US and EU sanctions have targeted Iran's energy and banking sectors, crippling its oil-based economy.


(Return to Articles and Documents List) The Daily Mail – U.K.

China Reveals its Ability to Nuke the US: Government Boasts about new Submarine Fleet Capable of Launching Warheads at Cities across the Nation

State-run media claims the Chinese military has missiles capable of hitting cities all across the U.S.

China's submarine fleet currently is on 'routine patrol.'

According to Chinese media, this is the first time China has possessed 'effective underwater nuclear deterrence against the United States'

By Daily Mail Reporter 2 November 2013

The Chinese government has revealed for the first time that it has nuclear submarines capable of attacking cities throughout the United States.

Last week, state-run Chinese news agencies - such as China Central TV, the People’s Daily, the Global Times, the PLA Daily, the China Youth Daily and the Guangmin Daily - ran identical reports about the 'awesomeness' of the People's Liberation Army's submarine force.

'This is the first time in 42 years since the establishment of our navy’s strategic submarine force that we reveal on such a large scale the secrets of our first-generation underwater nuclear force,' the Global Times said in a lengthy article titled 'China for the First Time Possesses Effective Underwater Nuclear Deterrence against the United States.'

Chinese news agencies also reported on the Army's lethal intentions should it ever use the nuclear weapons the submarines are capable of launching.

'Because the Midwest states of the U.S. are sparsely populated, in order to increase the lethality, [our] nuclear attacks should mainly target the key cities on the West Coast of the United States, such as Seattle, Los Angeles, San Francisco




and San Diego,' the Global Times said. 'The 12 JL-2 nuclear warheads carried by one single Type 094 SSBN can kill and wound 5 million to 12 million Americans.

But West Coast cities aren't the only metropolitan areas in the U.S. that face the threat of a nuclear attack from the Chinese, according to the country's state-run media.

'If we launch our DF 31A ICBMs over the North Pole, we can easily destroy a whole list of metropolises on the East Coast and the New England region of the U.S., including Annapolis, Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Portland, Baltimore and Norfolk, whose population accounts for about one-eighth of America’s total residents,' the Global Times said.

The JL-2 missiles have a range of about 8,700 miles and could hit almost the entire continental U.S. with independently targetable re-entry vehicle warheads. The Type 094 Jin Class submarine was developed in 2010 and is capable of launching 12 to 16 JL-2 missiles.

The Chinese submarine fleet reportedly is the the second-largest in the world. According to Chinese media, the fleet includes 70 subs, 10 of which are nuclear powered. At least four of those subs are capable of launching the JL-2 missiles.

Each of the reports from China's state-run media stressed that the PLA's submarine fleet currently is on routine strategic patrol, 'which means that China for the first time has acquired the strategic deterrence and second strike capability against the United States.'

'Our JL-2 SLBMs have become the fourth type of Chinese nuclear missiles that threaten the continental United States, after our DF-31A, DF-5A and DF-5B ICBMs,' said the Global Times.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2484334/China-boasts-new-submarine-fleet-capable-launching-nuclear-warheads-cities-United-States.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

(Return to Articles and Documents List) The Japan Times – Japan

Pyongyang Making ICBM Gains: Report Agence France-Presse (AFP)-JIJI

SEOUL – North Korea is making progress on an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of delivering a first-generation nuclear warhead to the continental United States, a leading U.S. think tank said Tuesday.

The closely followed 38 North website of the Johns Hopkins University’s U.S.-Korea Institute argued that ICBM mock-ups seen at recent military parades in Pyongyang were “less fake” than originally believed.

Numerous experts had widely ridiculed the models of the North’s road-mobile KN-08 ICBM seen in 2012 and July this year, with at least one respected aerospace engineer labeling them technically preposterous and a “big hoax.”

An analysis posted by 38 North disagreed, saying they were consistent with the ongoing development of a missile with a limited intercontinental ability using only existing North Korean technology.

“Elegant or not,” the mock-ups suggest an ability to assemble components and technologies to produce missiles with theoretical ranges of 5,500 km to more than 11,000 km.

“Almost all of the configurations examined would be able to deliver a light, first-generation nuclear warhead at least as far as Seattle,” it said.

The analysis was co-written by nonproliferation expert Jeffrey Lewis and aerospace engineer John Schilling.

The authors noted that glaring discrepancies in KN-08 mock-ups displayed in 2012 had largely disappeared by the time of the July parade.





And the new arrangement of welds and rivets was similar to that seen on recovered debris from the North’s Unha-3 carrier, which successfully placed a satellite in orbit in December last year.

In a separate, technical paper published in Science and Global Security, Schilling stressed that the KN-08 was still very much a missile in development.

“The lack of flight testing strongly suggests that operational deployment is still months or years in the future,” the engineer said.

And even with a successful test program, it would likely be unreliable, limited in mobility and performance, and available only in small numbers, he added.

Lewis and Schilling’s paper referenced recent analysis of satellite imagery indicating that North Korea was upgrading its main missile launch site, possibly to cater to larger, mobile weapons.

South Korea’s Defense Intelligence Agency told parliament on Tuesday that North Korea had conducted five tests of long-range rocket engines this year.

An initial test of the KN-08 could come “at any time,” Schilling said.

Missile delivery has often been cited as the main weakness of the North’s nuclear weapons program which, after three tests, is believed to be close to mastering the key technology of warhead miniaturization.

December’s satellite launch caused serious concern, but experts stressed that it lacked the re-entry technology needed to bring an ICBM down onto a target.

Nevertheless, Lewis and Schiller said dismissing the mock-ups paraded in Pyongyang would be dangerous.

“The simplest explanation here is that the (KN-08) is exactly what it appears to be: a developmental road-mobile ICBM of limited capability but still able to threaten the continental United States,” they said.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s spy agency said Monday that the North is using Russian technology to develop electromagnetic pulse weapons aimed at paralyzing military electronic equipment south of the border.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) said in a report to parliament that the North had purchased Russian electromagnetic pulse weaponry to develop its own versions.

EMP weapons are used to damage to electronic equipment. At higher energy levels, an EMP event can cause more widespread damage including to aircraft structures and other objects.

In an unusual admission Monday by the secretive regime, a North Korean state newspaper said a number of sailors were killed when a warship sank during “combat duties” last month.

The Rodong Sinmun gave no figures for the number of dead. But photographs of gravestones in Saturday’s website edition suggested about 15-20 may have died.

The paper showed solemn-faced leader Kim Jong Un laying flowers at a cemetery specially created for victims of the incident, who “met heroic deaths while performing their combat duties.”

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/11/05/asia-pacific/north-korea-developing-emp-weapons-alongside-nukes-seoul/#.UnrWg4DnZDx

(Return to Articles and Documents List) The Sydney Morning Herald – Australia

North Korea Developing Electromagnetic Pulse Weapons: Report By Agence France-Presse (AFP) November 5, 2013





North Korea is using Russian technology to develop electromagnetic pulse weapons aimed at paralysing military electronic equipment south of the border, according to South Korea's spy agency.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) said in a report to parliament that the North had purchased Russian electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weaponry to develop its own versions.

EMP weapons are used to damage electronic equipment. At higher energy levels, an EMP can cause more widespread damage including to aircraft structures and other objects.

The spy agency also said the North's leader Kim Jong-Un sees cyber attacks as an all-purpose weapon along with nuclear weapons and missiles, according to legislators briefed by the NIS.

The North is trying to hack into smartphones and lure South Koreans into becoming informants, it said.

It has collected information on where South Korea stores chemical substances and oil reserves as well as details about subways, tunnels and train networks in major cities, it said.

The spy agency also said North Korean spies were operating in China and Japan to distribute pro-Pyongyang propaganda.

North Korea is believed to run an elite cyberwarfare unit of 3000 personnel.

A South Korean official, citing government data, said last month the North had staged thousands of cyber attacks against the South in recent years, causing financial losses of about $US805 million ($846 million).

In addition to military institutions, the North's recent high-profile cyber attacks have targeted commercial banks, government agencies, TV broadcasters and media websites.

North Korea has denied any involvement in cyber attacks and accused Seoul of fabricating them to fan cross-border tension.

http://www.smh.com.au/technology/sci-tech/north-korea-developing-electromagnetic-pulse-weapons-report-20131105-2wxy1.html

(Return to Articles and Documents List) Air Force Times.com

PACOM Chief Plans for North Korea Missile Threat By Matthew Pennington, The Associated Press (AP) November 5, 2013

WASHINGTON — The chief of U.S. forces in the Pacific said Tuesday he is planning for the possibility that North Korea has an intercontinental ballistic missile that can hit America although it is unclear if they really do.

Adm. Samuel Locklear told reporters that North Korea wants the world to believe that it has such a capability, so he is bound to take that threat seriously.

Over the past 18 months, North Korea has conducted a nuclear test, launched a long-range rocket into space and displayed at a military parade its road mobile KN-08 missile.

If operable, the KN-08 could potentially hit the U.S. But some experts say the missiles on show were mock-ups.

“Whether they are real or not, or whether they have the capability or not, (the) North Korean regime wants us to think they do and so we plan for that” to protect the U.S. and the region, Locklear said.

He said an unpredictable and nuclear-armed North Korea presents the most danger to the world within his area of military command, which stretches from waters off the west coast of the U.S. to the western border of India.





Locklear also stressed the importance of preventing territorial disputes in the Asia-Pacific that could be resolved through international law and compromise from becoming regional flashpoints.

China, in particular, has long-running disputes with many of its neighbors, including U.S. ally Japan. The two Asian nations have competing claims to remote islands in the East China Sea and that’s stoked tensions.

China last week accused a Japanese naval and air patrol of disrupting a recent Chinese military drill that was using live ammunition. Japan denied it.

Locklear said it was not abnormal for Japan to have observed the Chinese exercises the way they did and Japan’s action should not be viewed as provocative.

http://www.airforcetimes.com/article/20131105/NEWS08/311050021/Pacific-commander-plans-N-K-missile-threat

(Return to Articles and Documents List) The Chosun Ilbo – South Korea November 6, 2013

N.Korea 'Has the Edge in Nuclear, Biochemical Weapons' The South Korean army is inferior to the North Korean army in a one-on-one in terms of so-called asymmetric warfare capabilities, a Defense Ministry official told a parliamentary audit Tuesday.

Cho Bo-keun said South Korea alongside the U.S. would win an overwhelming victory over North Korea, and even in a one-on-one fight between the two Koreas, the South Korean military is far superior in terms of conventional weapons and firepower.

"But the North Korean army is rapidly increasing asymmetric war capabilities with the focus on strikes on the Seoul metropolitan area," Cho added.

The arms where the North has an advantage include nuclear and biochemical weapons, ballistic missiles and long-range artillery, he said.

He also claimed the North is trying to develop an electromagnetic pulse bomb to paralyze electronic equipment, a kind of Bigfoot of the arms world.

Cho confirmed that the North Korean army has deployed within 100 km from the demilitarized zone some 700,000 soldiers or 70 percent of its service personnel, plus 8,000 guns or 80 percent of its field artillery, and 2,000 tanks.

Since the successful test-launch of a long-range rocket in December last year, the North has been continuing research and development of intercontinental ballistic missiles by conducting five engine tests this year, the ministry said.

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2013/11/06/2013110600980.html

(Return to Articles and Documents List) Yonhap News Agency – South Korea

China Calls for 'Wisdom' to Resume N. Korea Nuclear Talks November 7, 2013

BEIJING, Nov. 7 (Yonhap) -- Nations involved in the long-stalled nuclear talks aimed at ending North Korea's nuclear weapons program should use their "wisdom" to restart the multilateral forum at an early date, China's foreign ministry said Thursday.

http://www.airforcetimes.com/article/20131105/NEWS08/311050021/Pacific-commander-plans-N-K-missile-threat

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2013/11/06/2013110600980.html



Ministry spokesman Hong Lei made the remarks as China is accelerating its diplomatic efforts to breathe new life into the six-nation talks that have been dormant since late 2008. China's chief nuclear envoy, Wu Dawei, is in Pyongyang to discuss ways to resume the talks, Hong said.

"Promoting denuclearization and upholding peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula serves the common interest of all relevant parties and also a shared responsibility of all parties," Hong said at a regular briefing.

"Under the current circumstances, the parties should use their wisdom, come back to the track of dialogue and consultations, and restart the six-party talks at an early date," Hong said.

The six-party talks involved the two Koreas, the United States, China, Russia and Japan. Since conducting its third nuclear test in February, North Korea has repeatedly expressed its willingness to reopen the six-party process "without preconditions."

South Korea and the U.S. have been demanding North Korea show its sincerity first by taking steps to denuclearize itself. China has been more accommodating toward North Korea, urging South Korea and the U.S. to lower the bar for Pyongyang to sit down at the negotiating table.

In Washington, South Korea's chief nuclear envoy Cho Tae-yong held a trilateral meeting on Wednesday with his U.S. and Japanese counterparts, Glyn Davies and Junichi Ihara.

On his trip to Washington last week, the Chinese envoy Wu put forward Beijing's idea on initial measures Pyongyang should take before the resumption of the six-party talks, said a South Korean government official in Washington.

But the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said China's proposal is not satisfactory yet, albeit "forward-looking."

Asked about Wu's ongoing visit to North Korea, Hong said the two sides "exchanged views on the resumption of the six-party talks as well as the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula."

"With regard to the outcome of the consultations, we will release the information in due course," Hong said.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2013/11/07/92/0301000000AEN20131107008400315F.html

(Return to Articles and Documents List) The Washington Free Beacon – Washington, D.C.

China Deploys New Bomber with Long-Range Land Attack Missile Congressional report also reveals China’s armed drone copied from US Reaper UAV By Bill Gertz November 7, 2013

China’s military recently deployed an upgraded strategic bomber that will carry the military’s new long-range land attack cruise missile, capable of attacking Hawaii and Guam, according to a draft congressional report.

The Oct. 8 draft of the forthcoming report of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission also reveals that China has developed a new armed drone nearly identical to U.S. military’s Reaper. The Chinese missile-firing drone likely was developed through Chinese cyber espionage against U.S. defense contractors.

The report highlights a rapidly modernizing Chinese military that includes large numbers of new weapons and new warfighting techniques, including attack capabilities in space and cyberspace.

“PLA modernization is on track to alter the security balance in Asia over the next five to 10 years, challenging decades of U.S. military preeminence,” the report concludes.

On the bomber, the People’s Liberation Army in June accepted the first of 15 new Hongzha-6K, or H-6K, bombers. The bomber is based on a late 1950s Soviet design but has an extended range. However, its long-range cruise missile is new.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2013/11/07/92/0301000000AEN20131107008400315F.html



The report said the H-6K, also known as “Zhan Shen” or God of War, “can carry China’s new long-range land-attack cruise missile (LACM).”

“The bomber/LACM weapon system provides the PLA Air Force with the ability to conduct conventional strikes against regional targets throughout the western Pacific, including U.S. facilities in Guam,” the report said.

Guam is being built up by the U.S. military as a key strategic military hub as part of the new “pivot” strategy of realigning forces toward Asia.

The report said China’s new land-attack missile can be equipped with a nuclear warhead. However, so far there is no confirmation that the new missile is armed with nuclear warheads.

The final commission report will be released Nov. 20 and a commission spokesman said some of the late draft’s elements could be changed. A copy of the draft was obtained by the Washington Free Beacon.

China last month disclosed for the first time video of the Changjian-10, or CJ-10, land-attack cruise missile carried by the new bomber. The H-6K carries up to six of the missiles.

The Chinese are also developing a nuclear-capable variant known as the CJ-20 that would be deployed on the H-6K.

Rick Fisher, a Chinese military expert with the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said analysts disagree with the commission assessment that the new bomber is likely to be limited to non-nuclear cruise missiles.

“In 2012 Russia’s former Rocket Forces chief of staff retired General Victor Yesin explicitly warned that some of Chinese ground and air launched DH-10 cruise missiles are nuclear armed. China is very likely developing multiple new long-range bombers to succeed the H-6K,” Fisher said. The CJ-10 is based on the DH-10.

Chinese National Defense University military expert Ge Lide stated in a China state television interview Oct. 18 that the CJ-10 is “China’s first sophisticated and cutting-edge precision weapon system capable of long-range precision strikes.”

“It is also a key member of the land-launched and air-launched long-range cruise missile family,” he said.

The missile uses China’s Beidou satellite navigation system for guidance and has a range of up to 1,500 miles.

China can strike targets in all coastal waters within an area known as the “first-island chain,” a string of islands close to China’s eastern and southern coast, with the bomber-cruise missile combination.

The new H-6Ks are believed by military experts to be a stop-gap measure for the Chinese military. The PLA is also building a new long-range bomber with a range of up to 7,500 miles.

The new bomber is said to be in development and will follow production of China’s first domestic air transport aircraft, the Y-20.

China is working to develop its aircraft engine capabilities, currently a major shortcoming of its jet aircraft programs.

A recent Chinese state-controlled press report from Hong Kong stated, “China’s long-range strategic bombers could cover the main strategic support points of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region.”

The publication Kanwa Defense Review reported in August that the new bomber is capable of hitting targets throughout the western and central Pacific, including Hawaii. Other potential targets include Singapore, central India and Russia.

According to Kanwa, the upgraded jet is powered by Russian jet engines that can increase its range up to 5,500 miles.

The H-6K strategic bomber also would bolster China’s extensive missile forces in any future conflict with the United States.

On China’s development of a new armed drone, the commission report said China unveiled in November 2012 at an international arms show its new Wing Loong missile-equipped unmanned aerial vehicle, built by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China.



China is negotiating with five or six nations in Asia and Africa who are interested in purchasing the drone.

The report said the Wing Loong closely resembles the U.S. MQ-9 Reaper, a major attack drone.

The similarities have led analysts to speculate, “Chinese espionage may have contributed to the Wing Loong’s development.”

“Furthermore, U.S. cyber security company FireEye in September 2013 exposed an extensive PLA cyber espionage campaign targeting top aerospace and defense firms for information on U.S. drone technology,” the report said. “FireEye attributed the campaign to a cyber threat group known as ‘Comment Group,’ which U.S. cyber security company Mandiant has linked to the 2nd Bureau of the PLA General Staff Department’s Third Department.”

The reports suggest cyber attacks from China played a role in the design of the new Chinese attack drone.

“China’s military modernization presents significant challenges to U.S. security interests in Asia,” the report said.

http://freebeacon.com/china-deploys-new-bomber-with-long-range-land-attack-missile/

(Return to Articles and Documents List) The Wall Street Journal November 5, 2013

India Launches Mars Mission By Joanna Sugden

NEW DELHI-India launched its first spacecraft toward Mars Tuesday, setting the country on course to become the only Asian nation to reach the Red Planet.

The initial stage of the launch, during which scientists placed the satellite into Earth orbit, was completed in under an hour after an on-schedule departure.

"The journey has only begun," said Koppillil Radhakrishnan, chairman of the Indian Space Research Organization, the country's civilian space agency, after the launch. "Challenging days are coming," he added.

The Mars satellite, equipped with instruments that can examine the surface of the planet from above, will circle the Earth in an elliptical orbit until the end of November when scientists intend to set it on a trajectory to start its more than 400-million-mile voyage toward Mars.

"In September [2014+ we expect to precisely enter Mars orbit…to provide knowledge to the Indian community and humanity," Mr. Radhakrishnan said. The satellite has equipment to search for methane in the Martian atmosphere, analyze the surface of the planet and take tri-color images from above.

If it makes it, India's satellite it will join two rovers and two orbiters belonging to NASA and a European satellite already exploring Mars.

The instruments onboard are designed to obey time-lagged commands to enable scientists to control them over extremely long distances when information will take 20 minutes to relay between the ground control and the spacecraft. "It has been a new and complex mission design," said Mr. Radhakrishnan.

Recent efforts by other Asian nations to reach Mars have failed after successful launches.

China's 2011 attempt with Russia to send the Yinghuo-1 satellite to Mars failed after the Russian rocket carrying it was unable to leave Earth orbit. A Japanese 2003 mission to Mars was unable to place a satellite into Martian orbit.

The Indian mission will cost $73 million, far less than comparable voyages including NASA's $671 million Maven satellite that is expected to set off for Mars later in November. Mr. Radhakrishnan told the crowd at the launch site in Andhra

http://freebeacon.com/china-deploys-new-bomber-with-long-range-land-attack-missile/



Pradesh, southern India, that the satellite had been developed in record time. The program was approved by the government in 2012.

The 28-day window when Mars and Earth are at their closest and missions to the planet are most efficient in terms of fuel consumption, will next occur during 2016.

In 2008, India, which spends $1.1 billion a year on its space program, sent an unmanned mission to the moon. "This is a giant leap forward from that mission," said the spokesman for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh after the Mars satellite launch.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20131105-704533.html?dsk=y

(Return to Articles and Documents List) The Express Tribune –Pakistan

Pakistan Successfully Test Fires Hatf IX Nasr, with a range of 60 kilometres and in-flight manoeuvre capability is a quick response system. By Our Correspondent November 6, 2013

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan on Tuesday conducted a successful test of its short range surface-to-surface missile Hatf IX (Nasr) as part of efforts to strengthen its nuclear arsenal.

“The test was conducted with successive launches of missiles (Salvo) from a state-of-the-art multi-tube launcher,” said a statement issued by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR).

Nasr, with a range of 60 kilometres and in-flight manoeuvre capability is a quick response system, with shoot and scoot attributes.

A senior security official explained that full spectrum deterrence was meant to counter India’s purported Cold Start Doctrine.

The doctrine is intended to allow India’s conventional forces to perform swift and unexpected attacks on Pakistan before international pressure could come to bear on India and before the Pakistani military could react within the first 72 hours of a conflict.

In recent months, Pakistan has tested a wide range of nuclear capable missiles.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 6th

, 2013.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/627746/pakistan-successfully-test-fires-hatf-ix/

(Return to Articles and Documents List) The Express Tribune – Pakistan

Nuclear Proliferation: FO Denies Pakistan-S Arabia N-Bomb Deal BBC claimed that the kingdom could obtain nuclear arms from Pakistan at will. By Our Correspondent November 8, 2013

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan dismissed a report by British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) on Thursday which claimed that Saudi Arabia had invested in Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme and could obtain the atom bomb at will.

BBC says various sources claim that Saudi Arabia’s investment in Pakistan’s nuclear programme meant that weapons made in Pakistan for the Saudis were ready to be delivered.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20131105-704533.html?dsk=y

http://tribune.com.pk/story/627746/pakistan-successfully-test-fires-hatf-ix/



Reacting to the story, foreign ministry spokesperson Aizaz Ahmed Chaudhry termed the report ‘baseless and mischievous’.

“Pakistan is a responsible nuclear weapons state with a robust command and control structure and comprehensive export controls. Pakistan supports objectives of non-proliferation as well as nuclear safety and security,” said a statement issued by the foreign ministry.

The spokesman insisted that as a responsible nuclear state, Pakistan was fully aware of its responsibilities.

Pakistan’s nuclear programme is purely for its own legitimate self defence and maintenance of a credible, minimum deterrence, he stressed.

Aizaz also drew the media’s attention to the joint statement by Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif and President Barack Obama issued on October 24, which referred to President Obama’s appreciation of Pakistan’s constructive engagement with the Nuclear Security Summit process and its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and other international forums.

At the same time, President Obama acknowledged Pakistan’s efforts to improve its strategic trade controls and enhance its engagement with multilateral export regime.

Prime Minister Sharif affirmed Pakistan’s support for the universal objectives of non-proliferation and disarmament. President Obama reiterated his confidence in Pakistan’s commitment and dedication to nuclear security and recognised that Pakistan is fully engaged with the international community on nuclear safety and security issues.

“There can be no better affirmation of the international community’s recognition of Pakistan’s commitment and adherence to the goals of non-proliferation,” the spokesman said.

The BBC report had claimed that Saudi officials had already in the past indicated that if Iran obtains the atom bomb the kingdom will get nuclear weapons. It added, that while the kingdom’s quest has often been set in the context of countering Iran’s atomic programme, it was now possible that the Saudis might be able to deploy such devices more quickly than Iran.

Although Saudi Arabia has denied such reports in the past, the latest resurgence of such rumours comes amid increasing regional tensions with Iran already under international scrutiny for high-level enriching of uranium.


, 2013.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/628949/nuclear-proliferation-fo-denies-pakistan-s-arabia-n-bomb-deal/

(Return to Articles and Documents List) Economic Times – India

Nuclear-Capable Agni-I Ballistic Missile Successfully Test-Fired 8 November 2013

BALASORE: India today successfully test-fired its indigenously developed nuclear-capable Agni-I ballistic missile with a strike range of 700 km from a test range off Odisha coast as part of a user trial by the Army.

The surface-to-surface, single-stage missile, powered by solid propellants, was test-fired from a mobile launcher at 0933 hrs from launch pad-4 of the Integrated Test Range at Wheeler Island, about 100 km from here.

"The test-fire of the ballistic missile was fully successful," ITR Director M V K V Prasad said.

"Agni-I missile was launched by the Strategic Forces Command ( SFC)," he said, adding the DRDO developed medium-range ballistic missile from the production lot was launched as part of regular training exercise by the armed forces.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/628949/nuclear-proliferation-fo-denies-pakistan-s-arabia-n-bomb-deal/



The Agni-I missile has a specialised navigation system which ensures it reaches the target with a high degree of accuracy and precision, he said.

Weighing 12 tonnes, the 15-metre-long Agni-I, which can carry payloads up to 1000 kg, has already been inducted into the Indian Army.

Agni-I was developed by advanced systems laboratory, the premier missile development laboratory of the DRDO in collaboration with Defence Research Development Laboratory and Research Centre Imarat and integrated by Bharat Dynamics Limited, Hyderabad.

The last trial of the sophisticated Agni-I missile was successfully carried out on December 12, 2012 from the same base.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/nuclear-capable-agni-i-ballistic-missile-successfully-test-fired/articleshow/25422499.cms

(Return to Articles and Documents List) RIA Novosti – Russian Information Agency

Russian-Japanese Talks Focus on US Missile Defense Plans 2 November 2013

TOKYO, November 2 (RIA Novosti) – Russian concern over the deployment of elements of a US missile defense network in Japan was the subject of “special attention” during talks in Tokyo this week between Russia’s defense and foreign ministers and their Japanese counterparts, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Saturday.

Shoigu said that the Russians had suggested holding additional meetings with Japan about Moscow’s apprehension over US moves to deploy missile defenses around the arc of the South China Sea in addition to the disputed European missile shield, including a new missile defense radar in western Japan to join an existing radar in the northern Aomori prefecture.

“We made no secret of the fact that the creation by the US of a global missile defense system, including a Japanese element, is causing us grave concern, primarily over the possible destruction of the strategic balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region,” Shoigu said at a news conference on the outcome of the two-day talks in Tokyo on Saturday.

Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said at the same conference that “the linchpin of Japan’s defense policy remains its union with the US, and there will be no changes in this respect.”

Both countries were, however, positive on the outcome of the talks – the first to be held between the two countries in the 2+2 format of each side’s foreign and defense minister – announcing heightened cooperation on a range of issues related to international security and bilateral relations, as well as plans to meet in the same format on a regular basis.

Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said the two sides had agreed to hold joint anti-terror and anti-piracy military exercises.

“We share the assessment of our Japanese colleagues on the necessity of coordinating our efforts in the fight against international terrorism and piracy. We have proposed strengthening the coordination of Russian and Japanese ships serving in the Horn of Africa region,” said Shoigu, adding that the sailors there could take part in joint naval exercises.

Onodera said both countries intended to send observers to each other’s military exercises on a regular basis, while Shoigu said that the Russian General Staff and its Japanese counterpart were looking at how to cooperate more closely.

Kishida said both countries would broaden their cooperation further within regional organizations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the East Asia Summit. “Cooperation between Japan and Russia, as key players in the Pacific Ocean region, is important for fortifying peace and stability in the region,” he said.





The Japanese foreign minister also said that the two countries would start holding meetings on the issue of cybersecurity.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the four ministers had agreed to hold meetings in the 2+2 format on a regular basis, and that the Russians had invited their Japanese counterparts to come to Moscow for this purpose next year.

On Friday, the two foreign ministers said they had agreed to hold peace treaty talks in January or February next year. Moscow and Tokyo never signed a permanent peace treaty after World War II because of a long-running territorial dispute over the Kuril Islands in the north Pacific, an archipelago occupied by Soviet forces at the end of the war and still claimed by Japan.

http://en.ria.ru/world/20131102/184485970/Russian-Japanese-Talks-Focus-on-US-Missile-Defense-Plans.html


Russian Strategic Bombers Complete South American Mission 5 November 2013

MOSCOW, November 5 (RIA Novosti) – Two Russian Tupolev Tu-160 Blackjack strategic bombers returned on Tuesday from a tour-of-duty in South America, where they carried out a series of patrols in line with a combat training program.

During the mission, which started on October 28, the nuclear-capable bombers visited Venezuela and Nicaragua, and conducted a series of patrols over the Caribbean.

“The bombers took off from Venezuela’s Maiquetia airfield and flew a distance of about 13,000 kilometers *8,000 miles], refueling from Ilyushin Il-98 air tankers over neutral waters in the Sea of Norway,” the Russian Defense Ministry said.

The planes landed early on Tuesday at the Engels airbase in southwestern Russia, the ministry said.

Russian strategic bombers conducted a similar mission in 2008. It was followed by a visit to Venezuela by a Russian naval task force that took part in joint exercises with the Venezuelan navy.

The Tu-160 Blackjack is a supersonic, variable-geometry heavy bomber, designed to strike strategic targets with nuclear and conventional weapons deep in continental theaters of operation.

http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20131105/184529333/Russian-Strategic-Bombers-Complete-South-American-Mission.html


Russia to Deploy More Yars Ballistic Missiles by Year-End 6 November 2013

MOSCOW, November 6 (RIA Novosti) – Russia will arm two more regiments of the Strategic Missile Forces with Yars mobile ballistic missile systems by the end of 2013, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Wednesday.

“We are facing an important task – to preserve the balance of the strategic deterrence system, which makes the maintenance and timely re-equipment of the strategic nuclear forces a key area of military development,” Shoigu said.

The SMF has so far fully equipped two regiments of the Teikovo Missile Division in central Russia with Yars systems.

http://en.ria.ru/world/20131102/184485970/Russian-Japanese-Talks-Focus-on-US-Missile-Defense-Plans.html





The two regiments consist of a total of 18 missile systems and several mobile command posts, according to the Defense Ministry.

Shoigu did not say where the new missiles will be deployed, but mentioned that they will be first tested in the Novosibirsk Missile Division, based in Siberia.

According to plans announced earlier by the Defense Ministry, the Novosibirsk division is expected to receive mobile Yars systems, while the Kozelsk division in central Russia will be armed with the silo-based version of the system.

The Yars missile system is armed with the RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missile, which has considerably better combat and operational capabilities than the Topol-M (SS-27 Stalin).

The SMF previously said the Topol-M and RS-24 ballistic missiles would be the mainstays of the ground-based component of Russia’s nuclear triad and would account for no less than 80 percent of the SMF’s arsenal by 2016.

http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20131106/184554661/Russia-to-Deploy-More-Yars-Ballistic-Missiles-by-Year-End.html

(Return to Articles and Documents List) Voice of Russia – Russia 3 November 2013

ABM System in Europe is the Main Stumbling Block of Russian-American Relations – Expert The NATO missile defense shield has been a source of tension between the US and Russia, particularly because of the location of the proposed missile bases. And, as Evgeny Buzhinsky, retired lieutenant-general and Co-Chairman of Joint US-Russia group on missile defense cooperation from 2002 to 2008, said in an interview with the Voice of Russia, unwillingness of the United States to cooperate with Russia on this issue is the main problem.

“The main Russian concern and the main Russian objective is that the US are going on with their deployment without any consultations whatsoever with the Russian side. That’s the main concern,” Buzhinsky told the VoR.

Romania, a NATO-member country, has broken ground on one of the new bases, located in the south of the country. Meanwhile, Poland is the location of another proposed missile site.

Russia has expressed concern in the past about these missiles being placed in Eastern Europe, ostensibly, in Russia’s backyard.

“After the Moscow treaty was signed there was a joint statement of agreeing to establish three joint groups on military cooperation on strategic offensive weapons or missile defense against terrorism. They were quite successful until the Bush administration decided to go on with their missile defense plans,” the expert said.

He also noted, at that time the most irritating factor was Poland and a radar in the Czech Republic, because the missiles in Poland theoretically could intercept the Russian ICBMs launch from the European part of the country and the Czech radar actually covered the European part of the Russian Federation.

http://voiceofrussia.com/2013_11_03/ABM-system-in-Europe-is-the-main-stumbling-block-of-Russian-American-relations-expert-5259/

(Return to Articles and Documents List) The Washington Free Beacon

Radio Silence Pentagon, State Department silent on threatening reports outlining Chinese plans for nuclear attacks on U.S. cities

http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20131106/184554661/Russia-to-Deploy-More-Yars-Ballistic-Missiles-by-Year-End.html





By Bill Gertz November 4, 2013

The Obama administration declined to comment on Sunday on provocative state-run Chinese media reports outlining Beijing’s nuclear war plans, including land-based and submarine-launched missile strikes on U.S. cities that would kill up to 12 million people.

State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf and Pentagon spokeswoman Cynthia Smith would not respond when asked about the highly unusual Chinese reports published Oct. 28 in numerous major Communist Party-controlled television and newspaper outlets.

The Chinese reports included maps showing nuclear strikes on Los Angeles and the Pacific Northwest, along with the resulting radiation plumes stretching thousands of miles across the western United States.

Global Times, viewed as China’s most xenophobic anti-U.S. media outlet, stated in its report that “the 12 JL-2 [submarine-launched ballistic missile] nuclear warheads carried by one single Type 094 SSBN can kill and wound 5 million to 12 million Americans.” The newspaper is a subsidiary of the People’s Daily, the organ of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party.

Harf referred questions about the attack scenarios to the Pentagon, where Smith would not comment directly, despite the fact that a key mission of the Pentagon is to deter nuclear attacks like those outlined in the Chinese press.

Smith said annual Pentagon reports to Congress documented what she called China’s “long-term modernization of strategic nuclear forces featuring the introduction of road-mobile, solid propellant ICBMs and continued development on ballistic missile submarine, the Type 094 and an accompanying new submarine launched ballistic missile, JL-2.”

“We continue to monitor these developments very closely,” she said.

The Chinese nuclear saber rattling is expected to complicate the administration’s push for a new round of strategic arms cuts with Russia. President Barack Obama in June repeated his call for ultimately eliminating all nuclear weapons and called for a one-third cut in the projected New START arms treaty warhead level of 1,550 warheads.

However, Russia has balked at further cuts and is developing a new medium-range nuclear missile partly as a result of China’s growing arsenal of nuclear missiles.

China is rapidly expanding its nuclear forces with new missiles, submarines, and warheads. At least one of the warheads is based on warhead designs stolen from U.S. nuclear weapons laboratories in the 1990s, U.S. officials have said.

The Chinese reports last week stated that the nuclear forces revelations were the first time Chinese media had discussed detailed plans to counter U.S. nuclear deterrence in the Pacific.

Previously, details of China’s nuclear forces were among the most closely guarded secrets in the Chinese military.

In addition to Global Times, the reports also appeared in other Party organs, including China Central TV, People’s Daily, PLA Daily, China Youth Daily, and Guangmin Daily newspapers.

The reports also coincided with China’s first official disclosure of new ballistic missile submarine capabilities, described by Global Times as “secrets of our first-generation underwater nuclear force.”

The reports were unique due to the level of threatening rhetoric and rare public discussion of plans for nuclear attacks, including plans to fire road-mobile DF-31A road-mobile long-range missiles over the North Pole to attack U.S. cities. The missile has a range of up to 7,500 miles.

“If we launch our DF-31A ICBMs over the North Pole, we can easily destroy a whole list of metropolises on the East Coast and the New England region of the U.S., including Annapolis, Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Portland, Baltimore, and Norfolk, whose population account accounts for about one eighth of America’s total residents,” Global Times stated.



For submarine-launched nuclear missiles, the Chinese plan to target key west coast cities.

“Because the Midwest states of the U.S. are sparsely populated, in order to increase the lethality, *our+ nuclear attacks should mainly target the key cities on the West Coast of the United States, such as Seattle, Los Angles, San Francisco, and San Diego,” Global Times said.

One graphic showed eight warheads hitting Washington state and Oregon and the nuclear radiation spreading as far east as Chicago. Another map shows five nuclear warhead destruction radii in downtown Los Angeles.

The Chinese nuclear war stories were first disclosed by the Washington Times on Thursday.

Former State Department official and China hand John Tkacik said the threatening Chinese reports are “wholly orchestrated by the Central Propaganda Department for well-planned strategic purposes.”

“While there’s no doubt Beijing’s media coverage of China’s nuclear missile submarines is aimed at psyching out Washington, the real targets of this new nuclear propaganda are Japan, India, and the South China Sea states, all of which place heavy reliance on their relations with the United States in balancing China,” Tkacik said.

The failure to respond to the threats is undermining the confidence among U.S. allies and friends in Asia concerned with the American commitment to protecting Asia.

“These stories should be a fire bell in the night for Washington to step up America’s cooperation with allies in anti-submarine warfare.”

However, Beijing appears to be calculating that U.S. war weariness will lead to further slashed budgets for counter-nuclear programs, anti-submarine warfare, and missile defense, he said.

“Even with deliberately provocative articles like this series of reports on China’s nuclear missile submarines and targeting American cities, the general inclination inside the beltway is to treat China as a friend. I just don’t understand it,” Tkacik said.

Richard Fisher, a Chinese military affairs expert, also said the propaganda highlighting nuclear strikes on the United States appears part of Beijing’s calculated strategy to stoke nationalism and military worship in China.

The Global Times report, in particular, “is most provocative when it speculates about the possible damage that a JL-2 missile strike would cause against the West Coast of the United States.”

“Official and semi-official U.S. threat assessment publications usually are not so indelicate as to speculate on the potential for millions of Chinese or Russian deaths in a nuclear war,” Fisher said. “We usually leave that up to the imagination of their governments.”

One of the graphics published showed patrol areas southeast of Taiwan where new Type 094 ballistic missile submarines will conduct patrols.

Fisher said China’s large-scale Maneuver 5 war games last week included submarine, surface ship, and bomber exercises.

“Could the PLA Navy be starting to practice *missile submarine+ operations to support the deployment of their nuclear missiles submarines *set to begin next year+?” Fisher said.

Fisher also said the nuclear war reports and estimates of killing Americans may be linked to Chinese pique at the United States over the late-night ABC comedy show “Jimmy Kimmel Live.” A recent unscripted segment on the show featured children answering questions and one boy suggested that the U.S. response to China should be to “kill all the Chinese.” ABC later apologized for the segment.

Also last week, China’s military released a feature-length film that accused the U.S. government of subverting China’s communist system and imposing American values.



The military film said the Pentagon was using military-to-military exchanges for those ends and to corrupt Chinese military officers who take part in the exchanges.

The film, titled “Silent Contest” also criticized western non-governmental groups, exiled Tibetan leader the Dalai Lama and Uighur human rights activist Rebyia Kadeer.

Groups singled out as subversive included the Carter Center, the Asia Foundation, the International Republican Institute and the Ford Foundation who are behind an “America’s cultural invasion” of China.

The New York Times first reported on the film Oct. 31.

http://freebeacon.com/radio-silence/

(Return to Articles and Documents List) Global Security Newswire

Hagel: Combating Terrorism, WMDs to Figure Into Coming Military Strategy By Elaine M. Grossman, Global Security Newswire November 5, 2013

WASHINGTON -- Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel on Tuesday signaled that the U.S. military in coming years likely will act more to discourage the spread of weapons of mass destruction and terrorism, but could itself undergo a rebalancing between its conventional and unconventional arsenals.

"The challenge of terrorism has evolved as it has metastasized since 9/11," the Pentagon leader said in a keynote address at a forum sponsored by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"Destructive technologies and weapons that were once the province of advanced militaries are being sought by non-state actors and other nations," he continued. "This will require our continued investment in cutting-edge defensive space and cyber technologies, and capabilities like missile defense … as well as offensive technologies and capabilities to deter aggressors and respond if we must."

At the same time, nation-states may continue to be roiled by crisis, Hagel said, some of which may draw a war-weary United States and other world powers back into battle.

"Natural disasters, pandemic diseases, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction all present destabilizing realities to regions and the world," he said. "Regional tensions and conflicts in the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and elsewhere continue to have the potential to erupt into larger-scale conflicts drawing in the U.S., China, or Russia."

With his department is in the midst of a major four-year assessment of U.S. military strategy and force structure -- called the Quadrennial Defense Review -- Hagel laid out six focus areas for the Pentagon's planning efforts.

Among them is the mandate to strike a balance of force types -- not only between active and reserve troops, and between forward-deployed and home-stationed personnel, but also between "conventional and unconventional warfighting capabilities," said the onetime Nebraska Republican senator.

Although Hagel did not spell out a nuclear-weapons dimension in this focus area, rebalancing nuclear and nonnuclear U.S. forces may track with President Obama's administration's longstanding goal of reducing the role of atomic arms in U.S. national security strategy.

The president proposed in June to negotiate new strategic nuclear reductions with Russia to a cap of roughly 1,000 warheads on each side -- a one-third reduction beyond New START levels.

Hagel on Tuesday additionally emphasized that U.S. armed forces are just one tool available to the White House and that they must be used only in concert with diplomatic, political and economic levers.

http://freebeacon.com/radio-silence/



"America’s hard power will always be critical to fashioning enduring solutions to global problems," he said. "But our success ultimately depends not on any one instrument of power. It depends on all of them."

The defense chief also used the CSIS speech to again rail against sequestration budget reductions that cut $37 billion out of the Pentagon budget in fiscal 2013 and threaten to impose another $52 billion gouge in the year ahead. Over a decade, the Defense Department could be forced to absorb $500 billion in new reductions, on top of a self-imposed $487 billion cutback during the same period.

"These cuts are too fast, too much, too abrupt, and too irresponsible," Hagel told the standing-room-only audience. "We are looking at nearly one trillion dollars in DOD cuts over this 10-year period, unless there is a new budget agreement. … DOD cannot responsibly, efficiently, and effectively plan, strategize, and implement national security policies with this cloud of uncertainty continuing to hang over it."

http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/hagel-combating-terrorism-proliferation-figure-coming-military-strategy/

(Return to Articles and Documents List) Business Insider

USAF Planning to Develop New Means of Nuclear Deterrence By Jacek Siminski, The Aviationist November 5, 2013

The U.S. Air Force plans to modernize its nuclear deterrence capabilities.

According to the philosophy of the USAF, there is a great need to possess all kinds of weapons and as large variety of means as possible. Still, using a nuclear warhead in a small scale conflict would be impossible due to both political and psychological reasons.

The modernization is to include fitting the B-2 Spirit bombers with the nuclear warheads in the form of cruise missiles. The extraterrestrial looking bat-plane so far had no ability to carry nuke cruise missiles.

For legal reasons, USAF is unable to develop new nuclear warheads, hence the old weapons (as B61-7, B61-11 and B83-1 gliding bombs) have to undergo refurbishment and maintenance, and the new weapons will have to use the old type of warhead. The same thing applies to any new missile — it has to use a warhead based on old technology.

The proposed new missile is called LRSO — Long Range Stand-Off. It is to replace the ALCM and ACM weapons that are currently the basic strategic weapon in the USAF arsenal.

Since a nuclear scare is one of the basic USAF tactics (as demonstrated by the B-2 bomber visit to South Korea earlier this year), USAF generals, such as Maj. Gen. Garrett Harenack, agree that there is a need to modernize the current nuclear weapons, such as B-61 bombs.

The LRSO is to be introduced in the mid-20s of the 21st century. Research and development will be costly, constituting a sum of over a billion dollars. The B-52 will be able to carry just LRSO missiles, hence the program is crucial to the USAF keeping its nuclear capabilities.

Along with the LRS-B, LRSO is to be the basic strategic weapon in the USAF arsenal.

The SORT agreement made the Americans withdraw the AGM-129 missiles, with a range of 3,700 km. They also were the only nuclear warheads created according to the stealth standards.

The LRSO and B-61-12 are going to be tactical, with a purpose of neutralizing structures, such as bunkers. The potential candidates for LRSO warheads include W80, W84 or B61-12, with respective yields of 5-150, 0.2-150 or up to 50 kilotons. It must be remembered though that in case of W80 and W84, the warheads would have to be refurbished and upgraded.

http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/hagel-combating-terrorism-proliferation-figure-coming-military-strategy/



This post originally appeared at The Aviationist.

http://www.businessinsider.com/usaf-planning-to-develop-new-means-of-nuclear-deterrence-2013-11

(Return to Articles and Documents List) Aviation Week.com

Meads Scores Against Ballistic, Cruise Missiles in Major Test By Amy Butler, Aviation Week.com November 6, 2013

The tri-national Medium-Extended Air Defense System (Meads) achieved two successful intercepts in its second and last planned flight test Nov. 6, as prime contractor Lockheed Martin readies itself to proceed with a production program despite a lack of U.S. support going forward.

Meads successfully acquired, tracked and destroyed two targets — one air-breathing and another ballistic missile — fulfilling two of the test objectives, says Marty Coyne, Lockheed Martin’s lead business development official for Meads.

This second flight test for Meads originally was slated to counter only a theater ballistic missile; a Lance surface-to-surface target was used for the test, which took place at the White Sands Missile Range, N.M. But the Italian, German and American development partners agreed to increase the complexity of the trial by adding an air-breathing QF-4, simulating a cruise missile.

In both cases, the Meads PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) interceptor successfully collided with the targets after flying “over-the-shoulder” trajectories. This is when an interceptor engages a target from behind it.

There are several points of note in this trial. The two targets approached the defended area roughly 180-deg. from one another, forcing the system to showcase its unique, 360-deg. coverage capability. “There is no other air and missile defense system that could do this,” Coyne says.

Also stressing the system, the targets flew at vastly different altitudes, with the simulated cruise missile flying a low profile from the south and the Lance ballistic missile intercept occurring at a far higher altitude from the north, Coyne said. Company officials said they were not allowed for security reasons to release the exact engagement altitudes. However, the scenario was crafted to be operationally relevant, especially as forces become more expeditionary and operate surrounded geographically by potential targets in the future.

Finally, this was the first Meads flight test to include use of all of the system’s components. The flight trial last November that resulted in a successful intercept of an air-breathing target did not employ the Meads 360-deg. surveillance radar for initial target acquisition and cueing, though it was used for the recent trial.

A third PAC-3 MSE was fired in accordance with operational protocol as a backup for the ballistic missile engagement. Because the first hit the target, the interceptor was directed to self-destruct; it would have been used for the engagement if the first interceptor failed its mission.

This trial also demonstrated a successful uplink and downlink from the Meads fire control radar to the MSE missiles in flight, one of the test objectives.

Meads development was capped at $3.4 billion by the three partner nations; the U.S. provided 58% of the funding with Germany offering 25% and Italy providing 17%. This flight test was the major graduation exercise for the development program, but a U.S. decision to back out of the production phase has perturbed production plans for Meads.

Poland is exploring options for its future air and missile defense needs, and representatives from Warsaw were present for a viewing of the Nov. 6 test. Coyne says that to seamlessly transition into production, partner countries for a future Meads agreement would need to commit by late next year.

http://www.businessinsider.com/usaf-planning-to-develop-new-means-of-nuclear-deterrence-2013-11



In the meantime, the industry team will conduct further tests with the flight data from the recent trial. And they plan to stress Meads’ advertised “plug-and-play” feature that allows the system to seamlessly interoperate with non-Meads equipment by adding an Italian radar into the network during an upcoming trial at Practica di Mare air base outside Rome.

The successful flight test underscores that a multinational team can jointly develop an advanced system, Coyne says. “Minus the accents you would never know if there are Germans, Italians or Americans in the room,” he said of the viewing center for the test. That, he says, could help entice Poland into joining Italy and Germany in a follow-on production program.

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/awx_11_06_2013_p0-634381.xml

(Return to Articles and Documents List) Air Force Times.com

Push to Upgrade AF's Nuclear Arsenal Faces Opposition By Brian Everstine, Staff writer November 6, 2013

The Defense Department’s plans to extend the life of its main nuclear gravity bomb continues to meet resistance with lawmakers questioning the need to spend the money on the department’s most expensive life extension program on nuclear weapons.

The B-61 is one of two nuclear gravity bombs in the U.S. arsenal, and can be carried by the Air Force’s bombers and fighters. It has been in service since 1968 and leaders in the Defense Department and Nuclear Security Administration say it is in dire need of a life extension.

“It will arm the future long-range strike platform. It arms the current dual capable aircraft that are forward stationed in Europe as well as those of our NATO allies that maintain dual capable aircraft. And it’s the candidate weapon to arm the F-35 in that dual capable aircraft role,” Air Force Gen. Robert Kehler, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, told lawmakers at a House Armed Services hearing Oct. 29.

“It’s about deterring. It’s about assuring our allies of our extended deterrence commitment to them. And from a military standpoint, it’s about being able to offer the president a series of options that include nuclear options in extreme circumstances,” he said.

The Defense Department and National Nuclear Security Administration has estimated the total cost to extend the B-61 arsenal to be about $10 billion, $1.2 billion of which has already been spent, said Donald Cook, deputy administrator for defense programs in the National Nuclear Security Administration.

But lawmakers said it’s difficult to justify spending that much money on a program that may only ever be used as a deterrent, especially since the department has another gravity bomb, the B-83, that does not need life extension.

“I’m going to a $12 billion question here,” said Rep. John Garamendi, D-Calif.

“Do we really need the B-61 modified? Does the B-83 suffice? Presumably, this entire discussion has to do with deterrence, not with tactical,” he ask. “We do have a B-83 bomb that works.”

Cook said the B-83 will eventually need upgrades that could be more expensive, and that the B-61 is more versatile than the heavier, more powerful B-83.

“We’ll need to do a life extension to B-83 ... it will be no sooner than 10 years but not longer than 15 years,” Cook said. “It will be a larger life extension. It will be more expensive. We’ll have to do compatibility with aircraft which don’t currently fly it, and it will not have the basis to do that anywhere near the cost of the B-61-12.”

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/awx_11_06_2013_p0-634381.xml



http://www.airforcetimes.com/article/20131106/NEWS/311060004/Push-upgrade-AF-s-nuclear-arsenal-faces-opposition

(Return to Articles and Documents List) Eurasia Review – Spain OPINION/Op-Ed

A Smarter Pentagon Budget – OpEd November 4, 2013 By Lt. General (USA, Ret.) Robert G. Gard

Our bloated military budget contributes significantly to our massive national debt and threatens the very security it’s intended to provide.

Several expensive and unnecessary military programs are behind this paradox. The Pentagon should cut them from its $640.5 billion budget with the full support, rather than the opposition, of Congress. Our long-term economic viability would benefit, along with our national security.

U.S. national security does depend on a powerful military with the ability to meet global threats whenever they may arise. For our service men and women to succeed, they require modern weaponry and equipment, along with adequate logistical and administrative support. These essential requirements aren’t cheap. Neither are the adequate salary and benefit packages necessary to attract talented volunteers to join our military services.

And the time has come for a smarter Pentagon budget. The deficit financing of two major wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, plus irresponsible increases in the military’s core budget, have created a mountain of debt that threatens the health of our economy.

Following the Great Recession, a National Intelligence Estimate concluded that the greatest threat to national security was not international terrorism but the ongoing economic downturn and the growing national debt. Our nation’s top military leaders also have voiced this concern. Then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, stated it clearly in 2010: “The most significant threat to our national security is our debt.”

One of the major drivers of the budget deficit and mounting long-term debt is the Pentagon budget. Recent military outlays amount to more than half of U.S. discretionary spending and this situation hasn’t changed much despite our withdrawal from Iraq and the drawdown from Afghanistan. Paradoxically, excessive spending for programs ostensibly designed to enhance U.S. national security actually weakens it.

A prominent example of excessive defense spending is the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program. Over the course of its life, the program is projected to cost an estimated $1.5 trillion, the most expensive weapons system program in U.S. history. This program is wholly unnecessary, since the U.S. military has unquestioned air superiority over any potential enemy for the foreseeable future without procuring the F-35. Modifying aircraft currently in the inventory is a more sensible and far less costly alternative.

The U.S. Navy’s $120 billion Littoral Combat Ship was designed to conduct combat operations close to the shoreline. The first deliveries are extremely disappointing. A 2011 pentagon test and evaluation report concluded that these new ships not only lack adequate firepower but also even essential protection in that they are “not expected to be survivable in a hostile environment.”

Perhaps the most egregiously wasteful defense expenditure is the excessive budget for the entire nuclear weapons complex, estimated to cost $640 billion over the next decade. This includes expenditures for unnecessary infrastructure, nuclear warhead modernization, and new and expensive delivery systems at a time that we are reducing the role of nuclear weapons in our defense strategy.





Why? We certainly don’t require 1,500 deployed strategic nuclear weapons to deter our adversaries or reassure our allies and friends. Former Vice-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who served previously as U.S. Strategic Forces Commander, General James Cartwright, put it simply: “What is it we’re really trying to deter?”

Expensive aircraft, ships, and nuclear weapons offer minimal, even marginal, military capability against current security threats and those projected for the foreseeable future. They’re vestiges of a bygone Cold War; and their high costs are a major cause of our rising national debt that undermines the health of our economy that is the basis for the security of our nation.

Both the Pentagon and Congress must give more than lip service to the need to eliminate non-essential expenditures in light of our current and projected fiscal situation. Military spending that harms rather than enhances national security should be at the top of the list for necessary savings. We could save billions of dollars from an inflated military budget, thereby contributing to the stability of our economy and enhancing our national security.

Lt. General Robert Gard (USA, ret.) is the chairman of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation and former president of National Defense University.

http://www.eurasiareview.com/04112013-smarter-pentagon-budget-oped/

(Return to Articles and Documents List) Roll Call OPINION/Commentary

U.S. Would Benefit from Fixing the Problems with Missile Defense By Lt. Gen. Robert Gard and Philip Coyle November 4, 2013

In his recent commentary, David Trachtenberg called for more diversity in America’s missile defense systems and claimed that the current U.S. missile defense program “is but a shadow of the robust program needed to protect the nation.” (“U.S. Benefits From Diversity in Missile Defense,” Roll Call)

In fact, under President Barack Obama, missile defense is much more diverse and extensive than it was under President George W. Bush. The Obama administration has sustained the Ground-based Midcourse Defense System in Alaska, and it’s working to add 14 more interceptors there, even though the performance of those interceptors gets worse and worse each time they are tested, when it ought to be getting better.

The administration ought to replace those interceptors instead of building more of the bad ones. Moreover, it makes little sense, especially at a time of constrained defense budgets, to continue to invest in a failed system that doesn’t work and ought to be scrapped, as recommended last year by the National Academy of Sciences.

In 2009, the Obama administration also established the Phased Adaptive Approach in Europe, a much more diverse and extensive missile defense program than the Bush administration’s proposal for Europe. Where the Bush proposal included just one radar and one interceptor site in Europe, the Obama Phased Adaptive Approach includes radars in several locations and interceptors based on land as well as at sea.

In addition, the Obama administration is developing two regional missile defense systems, one in the Middle East to defend U.S. allies from Iran and another in Asia to defend U.S. allies against North Korea. If diversity is what Trachtenberg wants, he should vastly prefer the Obama approach.

As for the systems that have been canceled that Trachtenberg laments, such as the Airborne Laser, the Kinetic Energy Interceptor and the Multiple Kill Vehicle, they were canceled by Defense Secretary Robert Gates for good reasons under Bush, not by Obama. They were terminated because they did not and would not work.

http://www.eurasiareview.com/04112013-smarter-pentagon-budget-oped/



Trachtenberg touts the need for a new sea-based platform to better defend against offshore threats and seems not to know that under Obama, the U.S. Navy has expanded its fleet of AEGIS destroyers and cruisers for missile defense and has deployed them worldwide from the Sea of Japan to the Mediterranean.

The problem with U.S. missile defenses is not that we need more platforms or more money, although building missile defenses in space, as Trachtenberg recommends, would entail hundreds of billions of dollars in costs that the tea party might question.

The problem with U.S. missile defenses is that they lack a workable architecture and many of the essential elements either don’t work or are missing, as reported by both the Defense Science Board and last year’s study by the National Academy of Sciences.

And the to-this-point-unsolvable challenge to U.S. missile defenses is their vulnerability to decoys, countermeasures, stealth and confusion from space debris from rocket stage separations; the slow pace of testing; and excessively scripted tests that avoid the realities of battle and impede effective operational capability.

A truly effective missile defense would deal with all these challenges rather than building systems that won’t protect American security.

Lt. Gen. Robert Gard (retired U.S. Army) is chairman of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation and former president of National Defense University. Philip Coyle is the former associate director of the Obama White House Office of Science and Technology and the Pentagon’s chief weapons tester under President Bill Clinton.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/us_would_benefit_from_fixing_the_problems_with_missile_defense_commentary-228845-1.html?pos=oplyh

(Return to Articles and Documents List) The Diplomat – Japan OPINION/Flashpoints

State Media Boasts of China’s Ability to Nuke US Cities By Zachary Keck November 5, 2013

A number of state run Chinese newspapers ran an article last week boasting of China’s ability to launch nuclear attacks against the United States, according to multiple media outlets in the Western world and Taiwan.

As The Diplomat reported last week, China’s state-run media outlets last week ran a number of articles giving an unprecedented amount of information about the soon-to-be-retired Type 092 Xia-Class ballistic missile nuclear submarine (SSBN).

According to reports in The Washington Times, WantChinaTimes and UK Daily Mail, separate Chinese-language articles in publications like the Global Times described in detail China’s plans to use China’s new Type 094 SSBNs to attack major U.S. cities in the event of a nuclear exchange. According to WantChinaTimes, the article bragged that Type 094 Jin-class SSBNs carrying the new JL-2 ballistic missiles could reach the western United States without leaving the Second Island Chain.

“Because the Midwest states of the U.S. are sparsely populated, in order to increase the lethality, *our+ nuclear attacks should mainly target the key cities on the West Coast of the United States, such as Seattle, Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego,” the Global Times reported, according to the Washington Times and Daily Mail.

“The 12 JL-2 nuclear warheads carried by one single Type 094 SSBN can kill and wound 5 million to 12 million Americans,” the Global Times reportedly added.





The Diplomat could not verify the accuracy of the reports, although the language would be a significant escalation of rhetoric on the part of China’s state media. The WantChinaTimes report suggests some of the language being attributed to the Global Times in the other articles was actually that of Chinese military analysts, rather than the publication itself.

Other parts of some of the reports appeared suspect. For example, the Daily Mail article reports that, “JL-2 missiles have a range of about 8,700 miles and could hit almost the entire continental U.S. with independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) warheads.”

However, in their just updated annual overview of China’s nuclear forces in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris report that the JL-2, which is nearing initial operational capability, is only capable of carrying one nuclear warhead. Kristensen and Norris also put the JL-2’s range at 7,000-plus km, while noting that the missile has never been flight tested at that range. If the range is 7,000-plus km, it is not capable of hitting the continental United States unless it is far from China’s waters, Kristensen and Norris note.

It’s possible the Daily Mail report is referring to China’s DF-31A land-based ballistic missile. Immediately prior to the sentence quoted above, the Daily Mail quoted the Global Times as saying:

“If we launch our DF 31A ICBMs over the North Pole, we can easily destroy a whole list of metropolises on the East Coast and the New England region of the U.S., including Annapolis, Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Portland, Baltimore and Norfolk, whose population accounts for about one-eighth of America’s total residents.”

The Washington Times picked up the same quote from the Global Times.

The DF-31A is a solid fueled, three-stage, road-mobile ICBM with a range of about 11,000-plus km (7,000-plus miles). It is an extended version of the DF-31, which the JL-2 is reportedly based off of. It is capable of hitting the entire the United States if launched from the outer bounds of China, which it is currently not, according to Kristensen and Morris. The authors estimate that China has about 20 DF-31As, which is significantly less than the 75-100 missiles the U.S. Department of Defense once estimated China would field by 2015.

Although Kristensen and Morris claim the DF-31A only has a single warhead capability, other reports have said that China has tested MIRVed versions of the DF-31A.

Despite these lingering differences, all sources are in agreement that China’s strategic forces are improving, although how fast and in which ways is a matter of some dispute. Kristensen and Morris note that “China is the only one of the five original nuclear weapon states that is quantitatively increasing its nuclear arsenal,” but caution that the “pace of growth is slow.”

The authors seem more impressed by the qualitative improvements to China’s nuclear forces. “The capability of the arsenal is also increasing, with liquid-fuel and relatively inaccurate maneuverable missiles being replaced by solid-fuel and more accurate road-mobile missiles,” the authors write.

Kristensen and Morris also believe that China’s ability to threaten the U.S. with nuclear weapons is rising as long-range ballistic missiles are comprising an ever-larger percentage of China’s nuclear arsenal.

It bears noting that China has a no-first use pledge when it comes to nuclear weapons, and thus its nuclear doctrine pledges to only use nuclear weapons in response to it being first attacked by nuclear weapons.

Zachary Keck is Associate Editor of The Diplomat. He has previously served as a Deputy Editor for E-IR and as an Editorial Assistant for The Diplomat.

http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2013/11/05/state-media-boasts-of-chinas-ability-to-nuke-us-cities/

(Return to Articles and Documents List) The Express Tribune – Pakistan OPINION/Editorial & Opinion

http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2013/11/05/state-media-boasts-of-chinas-ability-to-nuke-us-cities/



NCA’s ‘Full Spectrum’ Response NCA's message could be that despite growing asymmetry, India's PAO doctrine, there is no space for military conflict. By Dr. Adil Sultan November 7, 2013

The National Command Authority’s (NCA) reaffirmation about the ‘centrality’ of a nuclear programme for Pakistan’s defence needs in a statement released after a meeting held in September underscores the increasing salience of nuclear weapons in the national strategic thought process — affected mainly by the Indian conventional military and nuclear developments. India’s new ‘war fighting’ doctrine and massive increase in its defence spending, i.e., over $43 billion against Pakistan’s little over $6 billion, may have compelled Pakistan to increase its reliance on nuclear deterrence — to counter the full spectrum of threat being perceived by the Pakistani decision-makers.

India’s defence spending may be guided by its own threat perception, but whatever India ‘does’ or ‘does not’ do — has serious bearing on Pakistan’s security perception, which is further exacerbated by the level of mistrust between the two neighbours. Pakistan, therefore, finds it appropriate that instead of engaging in a prohibitive arms competition with India, it should de-hyphenate its conventional equation vis-a-vis India and increase its reliance on nuclear deterrence.

The NCA in September reiterated that as a responsible nuclear weapon state, Pakistan would continue to maintain the policy of Credible Minimum Deterrence (CMD), without entering into an arms race with any other country. The ‘minimum’, however, has not been quantified and is a not a static concept. Statements made by senior Pakistani decision-makers on several occasions indicate that Pakistan’s ‘minimum’ posture would mainly be guided by the developments at the regional level that could affect Pakistan’s security perception.

The NCA, in its declaration, also endorsed the concept of ‘full spectrum deterrence’, which apparently is aimed at maintaining appropriate response options to cater for various contingencies. The ‘full spectrum’ is not a ‘quantitative’ idiom, but a ‘qualitative’ response to new war fighting concepts of ‘Cold Start’ and Pro Active Operations (PAO), introduced by India. Full spectrum offers a range of options to the decision-makers.

The range of options developed by Pakistan is mainly intended to enhance the credibility of its nuclear deterrence. In sum, the intended message by the NCA could be that despite growing asymmetry and the introduction of PAO doctrine by India, there is no space for a military conflict. It has also been emphasised on several occasions by the Pakistani officials that ‘full spectrum deterrence’ is not a war fighting doctrine, but essentially, a war prevention strategy. Nuclear weapons would remain an instrument of deterrence.

The nuclearisation of South Asia has made war an unthinkable option. In the presence of nuclear weapons, military victory has become impossible; political victory, however, would depend on the threat of war (deterrence). As long as there is no sincere progress towards the resolution of major outstanding disputes, nuclear weapons would continue to play the central role in Pakistan’s strategic calculus to deny India military as well as political victory.

The writer has been teaching at the School of Politics and International Relations at Quaid-e-Azam University and is a Visiting Faculty Member at the National Defense University, Islamabad.


, 2013.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/628052/ncas-full-spectrum-response/

(Return to Articles and Documents List) The Frontier Post – Pakistan OPINION/Commentary

Pak-Salvo Missile to Deter Indian-Cold Start Doctrine

http://tribune.com.pk/story/628052/ncas-full-spectrum-response/



By Beenish Altaf November 7, 2013

An outstanding with enhanced capability missile tested successfully today dated November 5, 2013. It was a Short Range Surface to Surface Missile named as Hatf IX (NASR) with a range of 60 kilometer. The test fire was conducted with successive launches of 4 x missiles (Salvo) from a state of the art multi tube launcher. Nasr with this in-flight maneuver capability is a quick response system equipped with shoot and scoot attributes.

Before analyzing Nasr it is imperative to recount here that nuclear deterrence is foisted upon Pakistan due to India’s aggressive nuclear weapon program. Coming to the point, India is pro-actively firing day by day a new test, just for instance going a few days back, Indian test-fired a nuclear-capable Prithvi-II missile with a strike range of 350 km. It was also a surface-to-surface missile that was test-fired from a mobile launcher in ‘Salvo Mode.’ Giving that reason, Pakistan’s response in form of TNWs in or the other way, is necessary for restoring and then ultimately maintaining the credibility of its nuclear deterrence. The Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, acknowledging the effort as an addition to Pakistan deterrence, congratulated the scientists and engineers on this outstanding achievement which consolidates Pakistan\'s deterrence capability.

The test being in a Salvo mode is an excellent effort to respond to India’s Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) and there ‘proactive operations which were introduced with the purpose of finding space for limited war, by achieving their objectives remaining below Pakistan nuclear threshold.’ The press release also explained regarding the test that it contributes to the full spectrum deterrence against threats in view of evolving scenarios.

Therefore Pakistan’s verdict of introducing these weapons in its nuclear force posture is very much intact with ‘Waltz argument that in an anarchical international system, states must rely on self-help mechanism for protecting its sovereignty and national security.’ Though for Pakistan the real nuclear threat festering in south Asia is Indian military expansion and buildup but pragmatically speaking, if India assumes that it could dominate the war through surgical strikes or its so-called CSD without crossing nuclear threshold then they need to correct themselves keeping the successful series of NASR tests.

It actually aimed to target the ‘advancing Indian Army armored columns’ or proactive Indian army operations inside the Pakistan borders. The cutting edge technology (Nasr) intends for large army concentration. Haft IX — shoot and scoot nuclear missile could be fired upon ‘area of operation of a Divisional or Corps level attack.’ Belligerently, former Indian Air Chief’s statement would be relevant to quote here that he made categorically; ‘such a nuclear attack even at this level would invite a massive response from India and though he did not name the cities but analysts presume that they might be Lahore and Karachi. Defence analysts had also surmised that Pakistan is at a distinct disadvantage of producing this weapon system which it cannot use in any war with its adversary but has spent billions of dollars on the same. Ironically, I believe it’s more a liability rather than a benefit. They won’t be used on either sides of border.

Lastly, since the game of thrones was initiated by Indian CSD, Pakistan needs to keep on test firing these upgraded missiles. Let’s wait and see how India will react; it could be that they would create a buffer zone might be plus 60 Km on border J.

The writer works as a Research Associate in the Strategic Vision Institute.

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/article/53020/

(Return to Articles and Documents List)

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/article/53020/