issn: 2278 7798 volume 5, issue 9, september 2016...

ISSN: 2278 – 7798

International Journal of Science, Engineering and Technology Research (IJSETR)

Volume 5, Issue 9, September 2016

2791

All Rights Reserved © 2016 IJSETR

Electronic Stability Control System and its possible contribution to Indian road safety

Mayank Mishra,AbhishekTiwari,SiddharthMaurya

Department of Mechanical Engineering

Bhilai Institute of Technology, Durg (C.G.)

Abstract- Many traffic safety organisations all around the world

like EURO NCAP, NHTSA, ADAC have strict safety norms for

Road vehicles. Every now and then Indian Cars have also been

tested by these authorities and less than 5% of these Indian cars

have been declared as Safe by these authorities. Where Air-bags

and seatbelts and ABS are all offered only in the deluxe models

of these Indian cars as if they were a luxury, Electronic Stability

Control or ESC, is not even an option in even the most premium

Indian Cars. ESC (Electronic Stability Control) is a great

automotive safety feature that helps to maintain the stability of

an on road vehicle during critical manoeuvres. As said by

experts, ESC is the most important safety feature since seat belts.

ESC has proven itself as an important technology from time to

time by avoiding the vehicle from under steering and over

steering preventing roll over and giving better control. This paper

targets the Indian audience and seeks awareness as to how

important ESC is in Modern Driving Conditions and demands

ESC being mandated in all Road Vehicles in India too, just like

numerous countries all over the world. It also methodologically

estimates the possible Effective of ESC if mandated on Indian

roads and reduction in the fatalities. It also predicts the possible

reduction in fatalities and effectiveness of ESC, using Numerical

analysis techniques, if ESC is mandated in India.

Keywords- Automotive Safety, Vehicle stability, Traction

Control, Oversteer, Understeer, Yaw, Fatality Rate, Roll-over.

Abbreviations-

ESC- Electronic Stability Control

ABS- Anti-Lock Braking System

ECU- Electronic Control Unit

TCS-Traction control system

I. INTRODUCTION

According to Word Health Organisation,1.2 million people are

killed in traffic accidents every year i.e. one in every 25 seconds.

As many as 50 million people are injured or disabled by road

traffic crashes every year. Adding to this,traffic accidents also

cost countries around 4 per cent of their Gross National

Product.[7] Only 28 countries which account to 7% of the world’s

population have proper and sufficient laws to address the

following fiverisks-speed, drink driving, helmet, seat belts and

helmet restraints.

A. STATISTICS

In 2015, the WHO states published a report which showed that

the global average of fatalities due to road accidents per

100,000[8]inhabitants in a year was 17.4 whereas it was 20.74 for

India[17].whichis a big number considering large Indian

population. 146,133 people were killed in India in 2015 alone.

One serious road accident occurs in the country every minute and

17 die on Indian roads every hour. 1214 road crashes occur every

day in India. 20 children under the age of 14 die every day due to

road crashes in in the country. More than 400 people die every

day which is equivalent to a jumbo jet crashing every day. In the

last decade, (2005 to 2015) the percentage of road accidents and

fatalities has increased by 14.2 percent and 53.9 percent

respectively. In 77.1 per cent cases, the driver was found to be at

fault.Also speaking economically, a loss of Rs 66,000 crore ($10

Billion) is incurred due to these road accidents.

Fig 1: Road fatalities in the world

India is second word-wide when it comes to number of road

fatalities and is predicted to surpass China in a few years too.

Significant number of these road fatalities could be reduced

solely by use of road safety gears and vehicles equipped with

safety features .Modern safety features work on the principle

“prevention is better than cure” i.e. they not only reduce the

degree of damage to life and property but they try to prevent

accidents from happening at the very first place.

B. ESC

Today, drivers rely on much more technologically-advanced

systems to help them while in motion, Antilock Brake Systems

(ABS) are the first of braking technology developments, This is a

fourwheel system that prevents wheel locking by modulating the

brake pressure when the driver makes an emergency stop.

Traction Control System (TCS) is the second technology. It deals

with front to rear loss of friction between the tyres and the road

during acceleration. [6]

Electronic Control System (ECS) formsby incorporating the first

two technologies, ABS and TCS, with additional capabilities.

These are stability enhancement systems that have been designed

to improve the car’s lateral stability by electronically correcting

and automatically assisting drivers in critical situations like

under steer and over steer and in unfavourable conditionslike

rain, snow, sleet, ice. ESC systems have sensors that monitor the

speed, the steering wheel angle, the yaw rate, and the lateral

acceleration of the vehicle. Data from the sensors are used to

compare a driver’s intended course with the vehicle’s actual

movement to detect when a driver is about to lose control of a

vehicle and automatically intervene in split seconds by applying

020000400006000080000100000120000140000160000180000

Number of Road Fatalities - 2015

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the brakes to individual wheels and possibly reducing engine

torque to provide stability and help the driver stay on course.

C. HISTORY

Electronic Stability Program was invented by Bosch in 1995 and

launched in the market with Mercedes Benz S600 coupe (ESP)

and BMW 7 series E38 (DSC). At first, only luxury cars came

with this feature. Many studies have reported the positive effects

of ESC, also referred to as electronic stability program (ESP) or

Dynamic Stability Control (DSC). Name of this technology

varies with companies for example BMW refers to its system as

Dynamic Stability Control (DSC), Mercedes calls it Electronic

Stability Program (ESP), Toyota calls its Vehicle Stability

Control (VSC), Ford calls itAdvanceTrac, and General Motors

uses the name StabiliTrak, Active Handling, and Precision

Control, Honda call its Vehicle Stability Assist. In this paper we

would use the term ESC for sake of uniformity throughout the

paper.[6]

D. ESC: Past, Present, and Future

Three technologies have been major in the realm of vehicle

stability control: anti‐lock braking (ABS), traction control(TCS),

and electronic stability Control (ESC).The development of ESC

began in 1978 when Boschintroduced the world’s first Anti‐lock

Braking (ABS). ABS was the firststep in vehicle stability

control. With the help of anelectronic controller and

brakehydraulic modulator, this system increased vehiclestability

during heavy braking by preventing thewheels from locking.

This system isvery helpful while braking on slippery

surfaces.ABS functions by using the wheel speed sensors

tomonitor each wheel and send that information to thecentral

Electronic Control Unit (ECU). If the ECU detects an indication

of any wheellocking up from the speeds of other wheels, it

willuse the hydraulic modulator to adjust the brakingforce

applied to the desired wheel. The best way ABS isutilized is on

slippery surfaces. There are three primaryobjectives of ABS:

reduction in stopping distances,improvement on stability, and

steerability duringbraking.

The next step in the development of vehicle stabilitycontrol was

Traction controlsystem (TCS) by Bosch in 1987. The goalof

traction control is to stabilize the vehicle duringacceleration by

preventing the wheels from spinningout of control. TCS seeks to

improve traction ofthe wheels while accelerating. TCS uses all of

thesame components as previous ABS systems with theaddition

of engine management. By selectively applying the brakes to

wheels that areslipping, TCS is able to increase the amount of

tractionfor that wheel. This is especially important when the

wheels are on surfaces with varying levels of friction. In addition

to using the brakes tocontrol the wheels while accelerating, TCS

also usesengine management to control the vehicle.

Bycommunicating with the engine controller, the TCSsystem is

able to control the amount of torque that issent to the wheels. If

the system detects that a wheelhas almost no traction with the

road and is simplyspinning, the TCS system reduces thetorque

delivered to that wheel. The enginemanagementsystem adjusts

the amount of torque bycontrolling airflow to the engine,fuel

injection, and spark timing. By adjusting all of these elements,

TCS is capable ofgreatly increasing or decreasing the amount of

torquedelivered to a wheel.Engine management greatly has

reduced thedependence on braking systems, thus the amount

ofwear and tear on the brakes as well as the size ofbrakes

necessary on the vehicle arereduced.

ESC:Electronic Stability Control (ESC) measures the intended

direction that the vehicle is being steered in with respect to the

direction the vehicle is actually traveling. In case of a

discrepancy, it is corrected by activating one or more of the

vehicle brakes at the wheels for the purpose of ensuring that the

balance of the vehicle is preserved. As a result, the ESC feature

helps to correct oversteering and understeering.[6]

E. BASIC TERMINOLOGIES USED

Understeer occurs when you go around a corner too fast and the

front wheels don’t have enough traction. As a result you end up

going forward instead of turning. Understeer is common on front

wheel drive cars.

Oversteer is the opposite, the car turns more than the driver

intended to causing the rear wheels to slide out and the car to

spin.Oversteer is common on rear wheel drive cars.

Yaw describes the rotation of the car about the z-axis. Yaw angle

is the angle between a line pointing in the direction the car is

moving and the car's x-axis (which is the direction the car is

pointed).

Fig 2: Various Car axes and alignments

F. SENSORS USED

Fig 3: Various sensors used

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F.1 Hydraulic unit with attached control unit :The hydraulic unit

executes the commands from the control unit and regulates, via

solenoid valves, the pressure in the wheel brakes. The hydraulic

modulator is the hydraulic connection between the master

cylinder and the wheel cylinders. It is located in the engine

compartment. The control unit takes over the electrical and

electronic tasks as well as all control functions of the system.

F.2 Wheel speed sensor:

Fig 4: Wheel Speed Sensor

The control unit uses the signals from the wheel-speed sensors to

compute the speed of the wheels. Two different operating

principles are used: passive and active wheel-speed sensors

(Inductive and Hall-effect sensors). Both measure the wheel

speed in a contact-free way via magnetic fields. Nowadays active

sensors are mostly employed. They can identify both the

direction of rotation and the standstill of a wheel.

F.3Steering angle sensor:

Fig 5: Steering angle sensor

The task of the steering-angle sensor is to measure the position of

the steering wheel by determining the steering angle. From the

steering angle, the vehicle speed and the desired braking pressure

or the position of the accelerator pedal, the driving intention of

the driver is calculated (desired state).

F.4 Yaw Speed Sensor:

Fig 6: Yaw speed sensor

A yaw-rate sensor registers all the movements of the vehicle

around its vertical axis. In combination with the integrated

lateral-acceleration sensor, the status of the vehicle (actual state)

can be determined and compared with the driver’s intention.

F.5 Communication with engine management ECU:

Via the data bus, the ESP control unit is able to communicate

with the engine control unit. In this way, the engine torque can

be reduced if the driver accelerates too much in certain driving

situations. Similarly, it can compensate for excessive slip of the

driven wheels provoked by the engine drag torque.

II. Working

ESC is an always active system. A microcomputer or Electronic

Control Unit monitors the signals from the ESC sensors and

checks 25 times a second, whether the driver’s steering input

corresponds with the actual direction in which the vehicle is

moving. If the vehicle is moving in a different direction, ESC

detects the critical situation and responds instantly,

independentof the driver. It uses the vehicle’s braking system to

“steer” the vehicle back on the intended path. With these braking

interventions, ESC generates the desired counteracting force so

that the car reacts as the driver intends. ESC can also intervene

on the engine side to accelerate the driven wheels, so that the car

is kept safely on the desired track. ESC utilises speed sensors to

monitor the road wheels, as well as a yaw speed sensor to detect

its level of movement through the z axis (spinning) and a steering

wheel angle sensor. It also uses traction control and anti-lock

braking systems as it can’t work all on its own. Traction Control

is used in order to drop acceleration from the wheel that is

deemed to be slipping. ESC also uses ABS to activate the brakes

on individual wheels at the required level to prevent the driver

from losing control.[6]

SCENARIOS:

Oversteer:

Fig 7: Oversteer

You are approaching an obstacle unknowingly, as the obstacle

becomes visible you steer hard in the other lane and to regain

control you steer back to get into your lane. This creates a

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moment across the z-axis of the car and the rear wheels start,

under forces of inertia, skid off and slide causing the condition of

oversteer. This can even lead to Rollover if the speed is high.

Fig 8: ESC avoiding oversteer

If ESC is switched on, this condition can be completely avoided.

ESC measures the changes in Yaw and communicates this data

to ECU. The ECU uses the steering input that shows the intended

direction of the driver, yaw that shows the direction the car is

going in and appliesbrakes to the outer front wheel to

compensate the yaw torque which wasoversteering the car. This

braking of outer front wheel creates a counter torque to bring the

car back to the intended course/path and the crash is avoided all

together.

Understeer:

Fig 9: Understeer

You are approaching a turn at a higher speed than the turning

friction at your front wheels allow, now if you turn hard in your

intended direction, the car will not be able to steer adequately

and keep going in the direction it was going before due to

inadequate friction at front wheels.

Fig 10: ESC avoiding understeer

If ESC is switched on, this condition can be completely avoided.

ESC measures the changes in Yaw and communicates this data

to ECU. The ECU uses the steering input that shows the intended

direction of the driver, yaw that shows the direction the car is

going in and applies brakes to the inner rear wheel to

compensate the yaw torque which was understeering the car.

This braking of inner rear wheel creates a counter torque to bring

the car back to the intended course/path and the crash is avoided

all together.

SUMMARY

A.Other Conditions when ESC comes handy:

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1. Hill Hold Control: Hillstarts are difficult when the vehicle

is heavily loaded. The driver has to operate brake,

accelerator and clutch pedals very fast in order to prevent the

vehicle from rolling backwards. The ESC Hill Hold Control

facilitates a hill start by keeping the brakes applied for about

two more seconds after the driver has already released the

brake pedal. The driver has enough time for switching from

brake to accelerator pedal without using the handbrake. The

vehicle drives off comfortably and without rolling

backwards.

2. Hydraulic Brake Assist: In critical driving situations,

drivers often brake too hesitantly. The Hydraulic Brake

Assist identifies a possible emergency braking situation by

monitoring the pressure on the brake pedal as well as the

pressure gradient. If the driver does not brake strongly

enough, the Hydraulic Brake Assist increases the braking

force to a maximum. The stopping distance is hence

reduced.

3. Load Adaptive Control: The volume and position of a

commercial vehicle’s load can vary considerably from trip to

trip. The load has an important impact on the braking, the

traction, the cornering ability and the roll-over tendency.

The ESC Load Adaptive Control identifies changes in the

vehicle mass and center of gravity along the longitudinal

axis of the vehicle and adapts the interventions of the safety

systems ABS, TCS and ESC to the vehicle load. In this way,

Load Adaptive Control optimizes braking effectiveness,

traction and stability. In addition, it reduces the risk of roll

over via the improved utilization of Roll Over Mitigation

and minimizes brake-pad wear by optimizing the

distribution of braking forces.

4. Roll Over Mitigation: The loading and the higher center of

gravity of light commercial vehicles make them reach a

critical lateral acceleration faster than passenger cars. The

risk of roll over is thus considerably higher. The Roll Over

Mitigation function constantly monitors the vehicle

behaviour with the help of the ESC sensors and intervenes

when the vehicle threatens to roll over. Roll Over Mitigation

brakes individual wheels and reduces the driving torque to

prevent roll over and to stabilize the vehicle.

5. Tyre Pressure Monitoring System: A loss of tyre pressure

leads to a deviant rotation speed of the wheel concerned. By

comparing the wheel speeds a potential tyre deflation is

detected. This value-added function permits tyre pressure

monitoring without the use of pressure sensors in the tyres.

6. Trailer Sway Mitigation: Trailers sway easily. A minor

steering error, a gust of wind or a bump on the road surface

can cause a critical increase in the swaying movement. The

counter steering and the acceleration of the towing vehicle

make the critical situation even worse. With the help of the

ESC sensors, Trailer Sway Mitigation identifies these

swaying movements of the trailer and intervenes by braking

individual wheels of the towing vehicle. The vehicle and

trailer are slowed down to an uncritical speed and stabilized.

B.Use of Fuzzy Control Algorithm for the Electronic Stability

Control optimized for Tyre Burst Control:

An Improved Electronic Stability Program (IESP)is used for tyre

burst control. IESP collects data from the same sensors of a

standard ESC and acts on brakes/throttle with the same actuators.

The IESP reads the driver steering angle and the dynamic

condition of the car and selectively acts on throttle and brakes in

order to put the car in the intended direction even during a tyre

burst.

Fig 11: Tyre burst at high speed

The IESP is an active safety device conceived to reduce the

probability of an accident. The IESP improves car stability

during normal driving and achieves maximum safety during a

tyre burst.

Tyre deflation and burstcan be caused by:

• An impact with sufficient energy to cause serious damage to

tyre structure;

• Age

• Puncture

B.1 Working:[20]

The IESP is subdivided in four distinct blocks: The monotrack

steady state, the slip angle estimator, the fuzzy controller and

theyaw moment dispenser. The logical intervention steps of the

IESP are the following:

1. IESP reads the sensors and defines vehicle condition and slip

2. At the same time IESP evaluates the ideal vehicle response

3. Then IESP compares the ideal and the actual response and

outputs the optimal command to minimize the difference of the

two responses.

Cases:

• Damage of front tyres: IESP can avoid spin and halves the

trajectory error. In this case impact with road side protections

cannot be avoided but injuries can be significantly reduced or

avoided.

• Damage of rear tyres: at low speed a rear tyre burst is a

situation that can be controlled even by an average driver. At

high speed, spin is unavoidable even for expert drivers. In this

case IESP avoids the spin and contains the trajectory error within

1m for speeds below 250 km/h. [19]

C.Trailer Sway Stability Control:SWAY CONTROL

WORKING[16]

Fig 12: Trailer sway and control

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It continuously monitors trailer yaw - side-to-side

movement, left and right of the tow vehicle.

Rapidly processes and captures the critical elements that

affect sway conditions and then uses the information to

sense how the sway will proceed without driver intervention.

Uses the data collected in the event of sway to apply the

brakes on the correct side of the trailer in a timely manner

and with the proper braking level required based on sway

conditions.

This system works independently of the tow vehicle to

dampen the trailer sway, quickly bringing the trailer under

control.

The module continuously monitors the sway sensor to detect

and activate during sway. It also is able to determine rough

terrain conditions, during which it modifies the sway control

braking. Upon exiting the rough terrain, the system is

returned to normal operation.

The technology promptly detects trailer sway and responds

by applying either the left or right brakes dampening the

sway more quickly rather than applying brakes on both sides

at the same time.

This technology is effective on all types of trailers (light and

commercial truck trailers)

III. Advantages-

A.Effectiveness of ESC

The effectiveness of ESC is the most important aspect when it

comes to its exploitation andas significant results are already

obtained worldwide, ESC must be mandated in India too. In

some countries ESC has already been mandated owing to the

great reduction in fatalities by the use of ESC. For example USA

has mandated use of ESC in all cars since 2012, Australia has

mandated use of ESC in all passenger cars and SUVs from

November 2011 for new models and November 2013 for all

vehicles, The European Union has mandated ESC from 31

October 2014 all across Europe, New Zealand has mandated

ESC in passenger cars and SUVs from 1 July 2015. Many

positive results have been obtained from these countries. They

are listed below:

At least 40 percent of fatal road accidents are the result of

skidding. Studies show that Electronic Stability Control

(ESC) would reduce skidding accidents by up to 80 percent.

In the European Union it is estimated that ESC could

prevent more than 4,000 deaths and 100,000 injuries each

year. In the US, these figures could raise to 10,000 deaths

and 240,000 injuries

Australia - The effect of ESC on all types of crashes leading

to driver injury was a significant 8% reduction in risk. ESC

was associated with a significant 8% increase in the risk of

multiple vehicle crashes, but this effect was not evident

when restricted to crashes that resulted in the driver being

injured. ESC was effective at preventing single vehicle

crashes (by 28% for all severities and 32% for crashes

leading to driver injury) and particularly effective at

preventing rollover crashes. When fitted to 4WDs, ESC

reduced the risk of rollover crashes by 82%.

USA-ESC systems could prevent 40 to 56 percent of

untripped rollover crashes and 14 percent of loss-of-control

crashes. By requiring that ESC systems be installed on truck

tractors and large buses, this proposal would prevent 1,807

to 2,329 crashes, 649 to 858 injuries, and 49 to 60 fatalities

at less than $3 million per equivalent life saved, while

generating positive net benefits. NHTSA estimates ESC will

reduce single-vehicle crashes of passenger cars by 34% and

single vehicle crashes of sport utility vehicles (SUVs) by

59%, with a much greater reduction of rollover crashes.

NHTSA estimates ESC would save 5,300 to 9,600 lives and

prevent 156,000 to 238,000 injuries in all types of crashes

annually once all light vehicles on the road are equipped

with ESC.

Mercedes data indicates that the installation of ESC as

standard equipment on all of its vehicles has resulted in a 29

percent reduction in single-vehicle crashes and 15 percent

fewer crashes overall. Based on these figures, the

widespread installation of ESC in United States was

predicted to save as many as 5,000 lives and nearly $35

billion in economic losses annually. This study, which

implements German government data, is especially

significant because all new Mercedes vehicles are equipped

with ESC as standard equipment.

DEKRA Automotive Research in Germany indicates a 27

percent reduction in serious loss-of-control crashes. It also

reports that 37 percent of corner accidents are definitively

influenced by ESC, confirming the Mercedes findings.

In the United States, Jennifer Dang of the NHTSA looked at

1997 to 2003 Fatal Automotive Reporting System (FARS)

data as well as data from five states from 1997 to 2002 and

reported a reduction for ESC-equipped vehicles in severity

of single vehicle crashes:

Passenger cars realized 35% reduction

SUV’s realized a 67% reduction

As well as a reduction of fatal single vehicle crashes:

Passenger cars realized a 30% reduction

SUV’s realized 63% reduction. [8].

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS)

considering the available US data, noted a reduction in fatal

crash risk for ESC-equippedvehicles:

Single vehicle crashes were reduced by 56%

Multi-vehicle crashes were reduced by 17%

All fatal crashes were reduced by 35%

IIHS concluded that a 100 percent ESC installation rate on

all light vehicles in the US could result in a reduction of

800,000 singlevehicle crashes and save 7,000 lives per year

in the US.

The European Accident Causation Survey (EACS),

containing data from 1,674 crashes in five European

countries (1995 to 1999), found

In the EU it is estimated that since 1995 at least 188,500

crashes involving injury have been avoided and more than

6,100 lives saved by ESC.

Injury accidents reduced by18%

Fatal accidents reduced by 34%

Injury accidents in loss of control situations reduced by

42%

Fatal accidents in loss of control situations reduced by

67%.

Reduction of 80 per cent of all skidding accidents.

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According to the Department for Transport statistics,

cars fitted with ESC are involved in 25 per cent fewer

accidents than those without

The Swedish National Road Administration and Swedish

universities looked at 2000 to 2004 traffic data and detected

a 22 percentreduction in collision and injury for vehicles

equipped with ESC.

Newly registered Mercedes vehicles equipped with ESC,

listed in the German “StatistischeBundesamt,” realized a

reduced number ofside-impacts, rollovers, and average

injury severity as compared to vehicles without ESC.

Collisions reduced by 15%

Single vehicle crashes reduced by 30%.

Volkswagen and Audi reported that ESC prevented 80

percent of all skidding accidents and 35 percent of all fatal

accidents. They alsonoted that many of the off-road side-

impacts were converted into frontal collisions or were

eliminated in vehicles equipped with ESC.

Japan - A study by Toyota in Japan reports that vehicles

with ESC showed a 35 percent reduction of single-vehicle

crashes, and a 30 percent reduction of head-on crashes,

saving another 2,500 lives. The study also confirms

Mercedes' conclusion that ESC is more effective in higher

speed ranges when vehicle dynamics play a greater role and

when the crashes that occur are more severe.

The Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data

Analysis (ITARDA) collected traffic accident data from 3

popular Toyota modelsequipped with ESC in Japan and

found:

Reduction in casualties (for single vehicle and head-on

collisions) of 35%

Reduction in head-on collisions of 30%

Highest effectiveness of ESC was in the 40 kph to 100

kph range.

New Zealand study show that ESC is expected to prevent

410 deaths and 1890 serious injuries over the next two

decades.

Sweden- The study shows that from a total of 500 vehicle

related deaths annually, 80-100 fatalities could be saved

annually if all cars had ESC.

A study of some Cars revealed that around 50% less car

accidents took place in cars with ESC as standard as shown:

Fig 13: Cars equipped with ESC cars not equipped with ESC

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Fig 14: Summary of ESC results in various countries

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IV.CASE STUDY:

A.Here is a news bulletin:

27 November 2015 :Five engineering students and one truck driver were on Thursday killed in a road mishap near Anjora bypass. As per

eye witnesses, the speeding car lost its control and rammed into the divider near Anjora bypass at Durg (C.G.). It was then, once again hit

by a speeding truck. The tragic accident resulted into on the spot death of three engineering students and a mazda driver, whereas, the two

students who were rescued in the critical situation later died during the treatment.

Fig 15: The photo from the News Bulletin

Analysis: The students were overspeeding and according to the road conditions where the accident took place, their speed was too high

(>140 kph). A quick swivel of the steering wheel was enough to oversteer the car and it rammed into the divider, crossed it and crashed into

a truck coming in the opposite lane. Such an accident is called a crossover accident. If ESC was present in their Honda City, the oversteer

could have been stopped from happening. No such steps were taken and the same crossover accident took place again at about the same

place on 05th June 2016 killing 4 this time.

B.Negligence of India for ESC: Comparison of USA with INDIA

USA has implemented ESC has a standard safety feature and mandated its inclusion in all cars. India considers safety features in a car as a

luxury and shows disregard when it comes to safety. These statistics aim to show the difference caused by negligence of Indians and

awareness of Americans.

B.1. Total number of registered vehicles (in 1000s):

Fig 16: Number of Registered Vehicles

The graph shows that though India started out far behind USA in number of vehicles, It has almost the same number of vehicles currently.

Despite this fact, both the number of crashes and fatalities in India are very high compared to USA. Sheer negligence of safety is the prime

cause of this.

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B.2. Total number of Fatal Crashes:

Fig 17: Number of Fatal Crashes

This graph shows:

The Number of fatal crashes in USA are decreasing every year despite the increase in number of vehicles and these significant

reductions are due to the importance given to traffic safety solely.

India is unable to decrease the number of crashes and is losing significant health and wealth when it comes to Traffic Accidents.

B.3. Total number of Fatalities (Deaths):

Fig 18: Number of Fatalities

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The graph shows continuous increase in fatalities in India and the continuous decrease in the fatalities in USA. This graph is more than

sufficient to say that the Implementing and Mandating ESC,ABS has lead to a significant decrease in deaths in USA and India also needs to

follow the same.

V. Calculations: Estimations and method of calculating expected

results:

Traffic Density: (Number of Vehicles)/(Total length of Roads)

Fatality Rate: Number of Fatalities per 100,000 population

Country Vehicles

(Millions)

Road

Length

(KM)

Traffic

Density

Fatality

Rate

India 180 4,689,842 38.38 20.74

USA 260 6,586,610 39.47 9.99

Germany 60.8 644,480 94.34 3.94

Japan 69 1,215,000 56.79 3.28

France 40 1,028,446 38.89 5.65

Sweden 6.5 579,564 11.21 2.36

Australia 15 823,217 18.22 5.67

New

Zealand

3.46 95,000 36.42 8.19

Table 1: Available data

In order to estimate the effectiveness of ESC in INDIA, only

countries which have mandated ESC and have seen significant

results are considered. Only those countries are considered which

have similar traffic density to India are used to estimate the

effectiveness in India.

Traffic density represents the rush and proximity of vehicles.

The traffic densities of USA, France and New Zealand are

very close to India’s traffic density. So these countries will

be given a greater weightage while calculating effectiveness

The traffic densities of Germany and Japan are quite higher

than India’s traffic density but significant results have been

obtained, therefore they will also be considered for

calculating the estimate but will be given lower weightage

than USA, France and New Zealand.

Fatality rate is used as an estimate of the driving conditions

and a measure of risk while driving in that country and its

traffic management.

Since India’s fatality rate is much higher than all other

countries being used in the estimate, the higher the fatality

rate of the country the more accurate the results. For this

reason Fatality Rate is also used to provide weightage to the

data of different countries for the estimate.

A.Method 1:

We will be using POLYNOMIAL REGRESSION

METHOD for estimating the effectiveness of ESC when

mandated on Indian roads , using the traffic density and

fatality rates of other countries as variables

Since effectiveness values of all countries have a small range

of 35% to 45%, we assume effectiveness varies with respect

to single powers of Traffic Density and Fatality Rate only.

Hence assuming ,

Effectiveness=Traffic Density*A + Fatality Rate*B +C

Where A,B and C are constants and fitting the available data

to this equation , we find A ,B and C

Let Traffic Density be X and Fatality Rate be Y

Solving ,

Σ E = A Σ X + B Σ Y +5 C ------- [1]

Σ EX= A Σ X2 + B Σ XY + C Σ X -------[2]

Σ EY = A Σ XY + B Σ Y2

+ C Σ Y -------[3]

Table 2: Calculations

Country Traffic

Density

[X]

Fatality

Rate

[Y]

Effectiveness

(Overall)

[E]

USA 39.47 9.99 45

France 38.89 5.65 44

New

Zealand

36.42 8.19 35

Germany 94.34 3.94 45

Japan 56.79 3.28 40

Σ=265.91 Σ=31.05 Σ=209


Putting all the values in above equation set , and solving for A ,

B and C we get

A= 0.1012191784

B= 0.4256750316

C= 33.77351971

Calculating effectiveness of ESC when mandated on Indian

Roads

Eindia= AX + BY+ C

Eindia= 0.1012191784*38.38 + 0.4256750316*20.74

+33.77351971

Eindia= 46.48681194 %

B.Method 2:

We will be using weighted average method for this

Taking: Traffic Density *X = Effectiveness

Country Traffic

Density

X Effectiveness

(Overall)

Value of

X

USA 39.47 X 45 1.140106

France 38.89 X 44 1.131396

New

Zealand

36.42 X 35 0.961010

Germany 94.34 X 45 0.476998

Japan 56.79 X 40 0.704349


Country X2

Y2

XY

USA 1557.8809 99.8001 394.3052

France 1512.4321 31.9225 219.7285

New

Zealand

1326.4164 67.0761 298.2798

Germany 8900.0356 15.5236 371.6996

Japan 3225.1041 10.7584 186.2712

Σ=16521.8691 Σ=225.0807 Σ=1470.2844

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Now calculating weighted average of X by the use of

Fatality Rate and Traffic Density:

Traffic Density factor is taken more (2 here) for USA,

France and New Zealand because they have similar traffic

density to India. Germany and Japan have very high Traffic

densities so less weightage is provided to their statistics.

Weight = Fatality Rate * Traffic Density Factor

Country X Traffic

Density

Factor

Fatality

Rate

Factor

Weight

USA 1.140106 2 9.99 2*9.99

France 1.131396 2 5.65 2*5.65

New

Zealand

0.961010 2 8.19 2*8.19

Germany 0.476998 1 3.94 1*3.94

Japan 0.704349 1 3.28 1*3.28


Weighted Average X =[Σ(Weight*X)/ Σ(Weight)]

Country Weight X Weight*X

USA 19.98 1.140106 22.7803968

France 11.3 1.131396 12.7847748

New Zealand 16.38 0.961010 15.7413438

Germany 3.94 0.476998 1.8793721

Japan 3.28 0.704349 2.3102647

Σ=54.88 Σ=55.49615


Weighted Average X= (55.49615/54.88)

Therefore, X=1.011227

Since Traffic Density *X = Effectiveness;

Expected Overall Effectiveness for India

=> 1.01127*38.38

=> 38.81%

The two methods predict an effectiveness of 38.81% to 46.48%,

hence it can be assumed that the effectiveness in India will be

around 42% which is the mean value of the two.

F. Expected Results if ESC is made mandatory in India:

Taking into account the previous results and expected

effectiveness of others and also present results of this paper, the

following results are expected to be obtained when ESC is

mandated:

Reduction in all fatal crashes by about 42% ±5%.

Reduction in fatal Light Motor Vehicle crashes (Cars and

AutoRickshaws) by 70%. This will account to reduction of

around 15% of fatalities alone i.e. saving of about 22,000

lives annually.

If ESC is also mandated in Trucks and Buses, it will account

to 40% reduction in fatalities and save more than 60,000

lives annually. Now that is more than the annual fatalities in

all other countries in the world except China.

Reduction of single vehicle crashes by 50%.

Reduction of overall Roll-Over crashes by 55%.

Reduction in Car roll overs= 40%.

Reduction in SUV roll overs=73%.

Reduction in Head On collisions by 30%.

If ESC is mandated and brought into effect in a period of

five years, the current fatality rate of 20.74 is expected to

reach 12±1 owing to the 42% decrease in fatalities.

Fig 19:Expected change in fatalities in India

Using tyre burst control will lead to a further decrease of 1-

2% in fatalities.

Crashes in India lead to a loss of about $10 Billion, a

reduction of fatal crashes by 40% will also result in saving

$4 Billion annually.

G. CONCLUSION:

Sheer negligence towards Road safety in India till now has

caused the loss of more lives than any other country can ever

imagine. Road Fatalities are higher than ever and crashes are

killing 17 every hour. All these alarming rates should make

anyone wonder what is it that we can do to curb this. ESC is the

best thing that gives hope. It can avoid these crashes from even

happening. Mandating ESC in India will save about 60,000 lives

annually.60,000 lives is a very large number, especially because

this number is even larger than any other country’s total

fatalities.

This piece of technology is especially beneficial for teenage

drivers and inexperienced newbies.

Also it will save the country $4 Billion annually which can be

used to tackle other problems of the country. Therefore this paper

appeals to Mandate ESC in all Indian Cars, Trucks, Auto

Rickshaws and Buses following countries where fruitful results

have been obtained from this technology like USA, Germany,

UK.

For wide acceptance, subsidies in the cost of vehicles should be

provided initially to encourage people to buy vehicles with ESC.

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0

50000

100000

150000

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Expected change in Fatalities India

ISSN: 2278 – 7798



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issn: 2278 7798 volume 5, issue 9, september 2016...

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