ISNS 4359 Earthquakes and VolcanoesISNS 4359 Earthquakes and Volcanoes(aka shake and bake)(aka shake and bake)

Lecture 1: Introduction and overview of natural disasters

Fall 2005

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Seismicity and volcanism are important expressions of earth processes

shape the planet and affect humankind in both beneficial and adverse ways.

Volcanoes fascinate us

with their apparently calm majestic peaks

potential power for calamitous destruction.

Volcanoes and earthquakes

can induce great floods of mud and massive tsunami

, crush and bury cities,

even degrade global climate.

DescriptionVolcanoes are also benevolent,

ultimately the source

for much of the water in our oceans and lakes,

the air we breathe,

fertile soil for growing coffee and vineyards,

new land in tropical paradise settings,

renewable geothermal and hydroelectric power,

building materials, gems, metals,

ski slopes, and scenic beauty.

DescriptionThis course provides a broad overview of the science behind earthquakes

and volcanoes,

new insights

about the architecture, processes, and evolution of the earth

their impact on humankind and other organisms.

The plate tectonics model

provides the central framework in which the many aspects of earthquakes and volcanoes are described.

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This course provides

a description of relevant natural phenomena,

impacting the world’s cultures

observation methods,

quantification measures,

causes, models, theories, hazards, prediction,

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There are two 75 minute-long lectures per week with as active student discussion as possible,

supplemented by rocks, physical examples, web resources, DVD videos, and computer projected images.

Graded assignments include problem sets, a current event journal, and three tests and 5 pop quizzes..

Logistics - objectivesLogistics - objectives

The main goals of this class

to increase awareness

develop an appreciation of the role of earthquakes and volcanoes in our lives

provide a framework and explanation of these natural phenomena,

basic information to assist the student

in making well-informed, safe, and wise life-decisions.

Other desired objectives will also be considered.

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Instructor: Dr. Carlos AikenPhone: 972-883-2450Office: FO 2.224AE-mail: aiken@utdallas.edu

Textbook: Natural Disasters by Patrick Abbott (2006, 5th edition, though you can also get the older 4th edition, 2004). Published by McGraw Hill.

I have ordered the book at the on-campus bookstore. However, it may be cheaper through Amazon.com ($83.13).

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Class Attendance & Participation: Attending class and actively participating in it are highly recommended. Short (5-10 min) quizzes will be given at the beginning of five random class meetings to provide extra credit, and motivate attending class and reading the textbook (no make-ups). Class participation includes asking intelligent questions during the Q&A portion of lectures or on the WebCT discussion page, and contributing current events and humorous items related to earthquakes and volcanoes in the news.

Reading assignments: Textbook readings are intended for study before class; lectures will be given assuming a certain level of background and familiarity. Readings and lectures do not necessarily cover identical materials; they are intended to complement each other. The short quizzes will be taken from previous lecture materials. Other book, journal, web and electronic resources can be found on the links in the course WebCT homepage. Course content includes the textbook and lecture materials. Handouts will be provided after each class through WebCT to summarize class content and to fill any textbook gaps.

Logistics - assessmentLogistics - assessmentProblem Sets: Due by the end of class on the due date. No credit for late assignments, unless special prior arrangements have been made with the instructor. Two Journals (I & II) will be due by the end of class on dates in the syllabus. Journals will deal with descriptions of 1 current earthquake or volcano event per week over a 4 week period (including sketch maps and cross sections describing the plate tectonic framework), following the assigned format.

Tests: Test materials will be taken both from the textbook (see discussion in syllabus below), handouts, and lectures. Tests will include ~50 multiple choice, fill in the blank, T/F, sketch/diagram, or short answer questions. A pre-test review will take place during the class meeting prior to the test. Tests will be reviewed in class approximately one week after they are given.

Test Make-up: Tests will not be taken at any time except during the scheduled in-class period, unless the instructor agrees to reschedule an individual's test as the result of a prior agreement, or a doctor's excuse certifies the student was too ill to attend class the day of the examination. If you have health problems, or extenuating circumstances, please contact the instructor as soon as possible so arrangements can be made.

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Grading: You can keep track of your grades by checking the course WebCT page (link available on the UTD homepage or webct.utdallas.edu). The final grade is based on the following percentile divisions A+: 97.1-100; A: 93.1-97; A-: 90.1-93; B+: 87.1-90; B: 83.1-87; B-: 80.1-83; C+: 77.1-80; C: 73.1-77; C-: 70.1-73, D=60.1-70, F<60. Short pop quizzes will be given in 5 random class meetings and will serve as extra credit opportunities.

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Grading components: (total 600 points) (100%)

3 tests, 100 points each 300 (50%)“Journals” (75 pts each) 150 (25%)2 Problem Sets, 25 points each 100 ( 12%)Class participation 50 ( 6%)Extra Credit 5 pop quizzes 50 (up to +6%)

Logistics - your instructorLogistics - your instructor

•I have been a geologist and a geophysicist

•work on potential fields (gravity and magnetics, electrical methods) applied to resources, ground water, engineering

•Also in another life time was a seismologist, assistant to State of Washington Seismologist

•Have been in many earthquakes, some famous (Seattle ’56,’66; Alaska ’64; Parkfield, CA ’66).

Now I build 3D virtual photo real models of geology

Overview of Natural Disasters

2003 Natural Disasters

More than 83,000 people killed by natural disasters in 2003

Bam, Iran earthquake: 41,000 peopleGujarat, India (2001): 20,000 people

Izmit, Turkey (1999): 19,000 people

Tangshan, China (1976): 240,000 people

European heat wave: more than 35,000 peopleUnique event

Unprecedented temperatures, but probably more frequent with global warming

Human Fatalities in Natural DisastersSawtooth-shaped curve caused by largest natural disasters

Biggest killers (in order): hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, severe weather, landslides, volcanic eruptions, tornadoes and tsunami

Most mega-killer disasters occur in densely populated belt through Asia, along Indian Ocean – number of fatalities is proportional to density of population

Effects on survivors

Increase in suicides

Increase in altruism

Economic Losses from Natural DisastersDestruction and damage to structures, loss of productivity and wages

Increase in economic losses over time is result of increase in human population and urbanization

Most expensive events caused by storms and occurred in U.S., Europe and Japan

Natural HazardsHazard exists even where disasters are infrequent

Evaluate site risk

Mitigation prior to eventEngineering, physical, social and political plans and actions to reduce death and destruction from natural hazards

Mitigation after eventRebuilding and re-inhabiting same site

Case history: Popocatepetl Volcano, Mexico• Eruptions in 822, 1519 and beginning again in 1994

• Currently 100,000 people living at base

Magnitude, Frequency, and Return PeriodInverse correlation between frequency (how often it occurs) and magnitude (how big it is) of a process

Frequent occurrences are low in magnitude, rare occurrences are high in magnitude

Small-scale activity is common, big events are rare

Larger the event, longer the return-period (recurrence interval)

Cost-benefit ratio can be considered in conjunction with return-period of given magnitude event

The 20th Century Was Unique

Population growth at unprecedented and breathtaking rate, doubling twice

Increased numbers of people in hazardous settings

Overview of Human Population HistoryDifficult to assess early human population growth

Human species ‘began’ approximately 160,000 years ago, with a few thousand people

Human population grew to 6.3 billion people in 2003

Growth rate is exponential

IN THE 20th CENTURYPopulation growth at unprecedented and breathtaking rate, doubling twice

Increased numbers of people in hazardous settings

The Power of an Exponent of GrowthVisualize in terms of doubling time

Number of years for population to double in size, given annual percentage growth rateDoubling time = 70

% growth rate/year

Example of interest paid on money

• Linear growth: $1000 + $100 / year

• Exponential growth: $1000 + 7% / year

Example of water lily plant in pond

• Doubles in size every day

• Covers half the pond the day before it covers the whole pond

The Last 10,000 Years of Human HistoryFlat population growth curve until 8,000 years ago

Agriculture established

Domestication of animals

Growth rate increased to 0.036%/year

By 2,000 years ago, population ~200 million people

Better shelter, food and water supplies faster population growth

Growth rate of 0.056%/year

By 1750, population ~800 million people

The Last 10,000 Years of Human HistoryBy 1750, population ~800 million people

Establishment of public health principles, causes of disease recognized

Birth rates soared, death rates dropped

By 1810, population ~1 billionBy 1925, population ~2 billionBy 1960, population ~3 billionBy 1974, population ~4 billionBy 1987, population ~5 billionBy 1999, population ~6 billionBy 2012, projected population ~7 billion

The Human Population Today

Present population: (insert number)Growth rate = 1.3%/year

Doubling time = 53 years

Growth rate =

fertility (birth) rate – mortality (death) rate

Future World Population

Demographic transition theory:Mortality and fertility rates decline from high to low levels because of economic and social development

Population Reference Bureau estimates world population growth rates are dropping

From 1.8% in 1990 to 1.3% in 2003

Due to urbanization and increased opportunities for women

Future World PopulationBUT population explosion continues

From 1950 to 2000 population grew from 2.5 billion to 6 billion

Growth rate of 1.3%/year means population of 9 billion in 2050

Consider no. of births / woman to predict 2150 populationAverage 1.6 children/woman: 3.6 billion

Average 2 children/woman: 10.8 billion

Average 2.6 children/woman (current average): 27 billion

Mathematical Extrapolation

Too many people?Crowding in cities

Crime

Pollution

Illegal migration

Disease

Room for more people?Entire world population could fit inside 42 km x 42 km square

Consider carrying capacitycarrying capacity

Carrying Capacity

How many people can Earth support?Calculations of carrying capacitycarrying capacity vary considerably

Increasing amounts of food can be produced

People can migrate from areas of famine or poverty to less crowded or wealthier areas

BUT Earth’s resources are finite, so solutions are temporary