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CS HO, University Technology Malaysia15th AIM INTERNATIONAL WORSHOP

February 20-22, 2010Ohyama Memorial hall, NIES

Tsukuba, Japan

Iskandar Development scenario and its policy implications

15th AIM INTERNATIONAL WORSHOP

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• Degradation of Water quality

• Air pollution has also increased

• Noise pollution in urban areas

• The decline in the quality of life

• Supply of housing for the poor

• Natural disasters

• Global Warming

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• Review existing documents.• Give priority on prevention of

disaster.• Preparation of risk and hazard maps.• Incorporate Hyogo Framework • Review existing legislation • Review existing building codes • Review planning• Enhance the provision for

emergency shelters• Improve coordination between

agencies• Promote data sharing • Improve public awareness• Propose insurance policy

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Current Policies-CO2 reduction efforts in Malaysia

UN Climate Change Forum at Copenhagen (Dec 2009) – Malaysia target - Reduction of Carbon emission by 40% from 187mil ton in year 2005 to 74.8mil ton in 2020

In the National Environmental Policy (2002), Green Technology Policy (July 2009), and broad policy in the Ninth Malaysia Plan (2006-2010), outlined strategies towards sustainable development with framework for the development of environmentally friendly and sustainable forms of energy. Emphasis is also given to increase energy efficiency and promotion of the use of renewable energy.

Promotion of renewable energy and green technology (development of second generation biofuel using biomass as feedstock, installing methane trapping device and steam turbine generators etc ) as a new growth area.

INTERNATIONAL POSITIONING OF ISKANDAR MALAYSIA

At the heart of South East Asia and within minutes from Singapore

Strategically located at the cross roads of East-West trade lanes

Midway between the growing economy of China and India

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

RegionArea (km2)

Population (million) Density

Iskandar Malaysia 2,2171.4

(Projected 2025: 3.0 million)631

Singapore 690 4.1 6,003

Dubai 3,885 1.2 309

Hong Kong 1,095 6.9 6,301

LONG-TERM ASPIRATIONS2005 Projected (2025)

Population Size1.4 million 3.0 million

GDP (PPP) in USD bn20.0 93.3

GDP (PPP) in EURO bn13.5 63.0

GDP per capita (PPP) in USD14,790 31,100

GDP per capital (PPP) in EURO9,989 21,005

Labour Force0.62 million 1.46 million

Employment0.61 million 1.43 million

Unemployment3-4% 1.8%

PRESENT & FUTURE STRUCTURE OF ECONOMY FOR ISKANDAR MALAYSIA

“Strong, Diversified, Dynamic and Global”

Electrical and Electronics

Petrochemical and Oleo chemical

Strong Supporting Institutions (Education, R&D, Government, Private and social institutions, communication and coordination system)

World-class Professionals and Technical Work Force

The Vision

The Main Pillars(Drivers) Logistic

and related Services

TourismH

ealth Services

Financial Services

Excellent Physical, Infrastructures, including IT

Stable Political, Social Environment

Excellent Working and Living Environment

Strong Supporting Industries ( Metal Products, Engineering, Non-metallic, Manufacturing Related Services (MRS))

IDR Economy

SupportSystem

BasicFoundation

CreativeIndustries

( Five Existing “Pillars” shall be reinforced ) ( Four New “Pillars” to be added )

Food and Agro Processing

Educational Services

The well established sectors which are manufacturing based will be reinforced while giving new emphasis on new sectors which are services based

FLAGSHIP ZONESJB CITY CENTRE

NUSAJAYA

WESTERN GATE DEVELOPMENT

EASTERN GATE DEVELOPMENT

SENAI-SKUDAI Catalyst development to complement existing strategic industries in Johor

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TOTAL COMMITTED INVESTMENT 2008-2009

INVESTMENT BY SECTOR 2006-2009

INVESTMENTS IN FLAGSHIP A

ACMP - Lido Boulevard•GDV: RM2.7bn

Danga Bay -Tune Hotels

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Iskandar Investment - Oakwood Service Apartments

• GDV: RM200 million

Danga Bay - Danga Island•GDV: RM790 million•Target sales launch April 2008

Danga Bay -Grand Siam HotelCost: RM120mnStart (April 2008)Target for completion 2010

Danga Bay - Casa AlmyraGDV RM125mnTarget for completion 2009

Danga Bay –Promenade

Johor Corp –upgrading KOMTAR- RM55mn-1.2 ha open car park -Start nov07, complete 2009

Gerbang Perdana/JKR -CIQTo commence in July 08 (light vehicle)

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2

3

INVESTMENTS IN FLAGSHIP B

BUEM Land - Johor

State New Admin.Centre (JSNAC)

• GDV: RM1.5bn• Won M’sian

Institute of Planners

• Excellence Award 2008

UEM Land - Puteri Harbour• GDV: RM13bn• Key signings: Limitless, Dubai World

UEM Land Puteri Harbour

Iskandar Investment - EduCity• GDV: >RM1 bn over 7 years, area: 305 acres• Newcastle Univ invited to set up medical faculty in

educity

UEM Land - Southern Industrial Logistics Clusters • Thematic Industrial Park• GDV: RM1.8bn• Key signings: HG Metal, Jurong Tech

UEM Land - Afiat Healthpark• Signed BLA with Columbia Asia for 70-bedded hospital.

Iskandar Investment- MEDINIGDV : RM42bnMixed Urban Development

Iskandar Investment –International Destination ResortGDV: USD1.5-2.0bn3,321 acresTarget to announce by Dec 08

JV KST (60%): Symphony Int (40%) Aman Resort (46 acres)Cost: RM58mn, 2008-2010

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2

3

5 6

INVESTMENTS IN FLAGSHIP C

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CAsia Petroleum Hub – KICBunker Terminal in Tanjung Bin•GDV: RM1.4 billion•Built on manmade island•located 700m from PTP

MMC Corp/Dubai WorldMaritime Centre at Tg Bin•Initial investment of RM2.0-2.3bn,• Total expected FDI of RM17-20bn•Total area of 2,255 acres•Key activities:

•Port-related Industrial & Commercialactivities• General Cargo Terminal suitable for non-containerized cargo, heavy cargo & ro-ro• Liquids Terminal with jetties, tank farms andprocessing plants•Employment of > 3,000

MMC Corp PTP – expansion (RM1.5bn)•Berth 11, 12, 13 and 14•Capacity to increase by 3.2mn TEUs to 11.2mn TEUs by 2010•Expected to attract additional FDI of RM5bn by 2010

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INVESTMENTS IN FLAGSHIP D

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D

Johor CorpRM500mil plant to make flexible pipes in Tanjung Langsat Industrial area – Technip Group (France) Johor Corp

Acerinox and Nisshin RM5 bil steel plant inTanjung Langsat

Johor CorpPacific Oleo chemical (subsidiary of Lam Soon) to construct a RM300mil oleo chemical plant in Tanjung Langsat

Johor Port and Pasir Gudang Industrial Area

INVESTMENTS IN FLAGSHIP E

E

MMC Corp Bhd•Intergrated Airport City in Senai Johor Premium Outlets

MSC Cyberport JohorCybercity in Senai148 acres Cost : RM400mn (phase 1)

MMC Corp BhdSenai Hi-Tech Park1,000 acresSubmission of masterplan in June

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Johor CorpJohor Technology Park & Sedenak Industrial Park

Key Design Characteristics

Participating Model: ExSS (Extended Tool Snapshot)Model Type: Energy Integrated Model

Participating Modelers: Matsuoka Yuzuru, Gomi Kei, Shimada Koji, Yoshimoto Kohsuke, Janice Simson and Ho Chin SiongTime Step: 1 yearTime Frame: 2005 to 2025Solution Type: Static, Accounting methodEquilibrium Type: Market EquilibriumUnderlying Computing Framework: General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMs) and Microsoft Excel spreadsheet.

Inputs and Outputs

Key inputsDemographics: population by region/ local authority, population composition ratio by sex and age cohort, average household size.Economic: Labor force participation ratio by sex and age cohort, Export value (demand of goods and services from other areas by industrial classification), Import rate (rate supplied from industry outside the area, among the demand of goods and service within the area.), Government expenditure (gov. consumption expenditure, gov. fixed capital formation)Resources: Coal & gas, crude oil, petroleum product, renewable energy, nuclear, hydro power, and electricity.Technology: Technology representations of production, transformation and use technologies.

Key outputsEconomic: GDP, Gross output by sectors (primary, secondary & tertiary industry), passenger transport & freight transportEnergy: Energy balance table, GHG emission inventory. Emissions: CO2 emissions by sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, passenger transport & freight transport)Climate: GHG reduction by measures .

Regional Scope & Other Detail

Regional Profile:Regional Scope: District levelNumber of Sub-Regions: five Flagship zons: Johor Bahru City Center, Nusajaya, Western Gateway Development (Pontian), Eastern Gateway Development (Pasir Gudang), Senai-Skudai.

Other Details:Energy Demand Sectors: Residential, Commercial, Industry, Freight Transportation, Passenger Transportation, Energy Supply Sectors: Coal & gas, crude oil, petroleum product, renewable energy, nuclear, hydro power, and electricityOther Sectors: -

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Setting of Framework

Base Year : 2005

Target Year 2025

Emission Target

30% reduction of CO² per capita from 2005 to 2025 with

Counter Measures

50% reduction of CO² emission from 2025BaU to 2025CM

Scenarios

2025 BaU (business as usual) without Counter measures

2025 CM with Counter measures

Sensitivity analysis

Economic activity level

Commuting structure

232%

Energy Demand By Sector

Energy demand in IM is projected to increase from 3,286 ktoe (toe: tonne oil equivalent) in 2005 to 10,936 ktoe in 2025 for the BaU case (BaU: business as usual)

Industry is expected to be 6,635 ktoe and will maintain the largest share of 61%.

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240 1,091 649 382

978 6851,733

6,635

3,494359

790

253

572

1,442

834

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2005 2025 BaU 2025 CM

Ene

rgy

dem

and

(kto

e) .

Freight transport

Passenger transportIndustry

10,936

5,915

3,286

1,729

4,978

788

1,209

3,854

3,694

447193

60

61

33

289

1,844

964

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2005 2025 BaU 2025 CM

Ene

rgy

dem

and

(kto

e) .

Coal

Hydro power

Solar & wind powerBiomass

Energy Demand by Energy Sources

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Increase in demand for natural gas (3.2 times) the consumption in 2005.

Energy sources such as biomass, solar and wind power will be newly introduced for primary energy in 2025 CM case.

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1,4687,715

2,972 2,419

7,195

3,8026,035

24,832

10,8971,015

1,672

447

1,615

4,070

1,481

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2005 2025 BaU 2025 CM

GH

G e

mis

sion

s (k

tCO

2) .

Freight transport

Passenger transportIndustry

Commercial

45,484

1,481

19,589

12,552

GHG Emissions in IMare projected to increase from 12,552 ktoe CO2 (2005) to 45,484 ktoe CO2 (2025 BaU)

Industry Sector will increase 4.1 times in total as compared to 2004 in GHG emission . (54%of total GHG emission in 2025 BaU)

GHG emissions per capital : 9.3 tonnes of CO2 /capita (2005) to 15.1 tonnes /capita (2025 BaU ), with CM will be reduced to 6.5 tonnes of CO2/capita.

GHG Emission By Sector

Potential Mitigation in IM

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12552

45483

19162

4463

10831

777 3510

5521

623

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2005 2025 BaU 2025 CM

GH

G e

mis

sion

s/re

duct

ions

(kt-C

O2)

Transport demand management

Fuel shifting

Efficiency improvement (buildings)

Efficiency improvement (transport)

Efficiency improvement (industry)

Efficiency improvement (power sector)

GHG emissionsE

mis

sion

Red

uctio

ns

57%262%

52%

Mitigation Measures

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Mitigation of GHG emissions from Iskandar Malaysia

Energy efficiency improvement

Lowering CO2intensity

Transport demand control

•Incentive to introduce energy efficient equipments & buildings•Incentive to introduce renewable energy

•Environmental performance standard and evaluation of buildings•Adjustment of tax rate of fixed asset tax•Low interest loans to investment to energy efficient buildings

•Environmental performance standard of equipments•Environmental labeling•Education and information service•Green purchasing policy

•Subsidy to introduce photovoltaic power generation system

•Urban planning•Transport planning•Tax rate adjustment to fixed asset•Investment to public transport

•Environmental performance standard of vehicles•Tax rate adjustment to energy efficient vehicles•Promotion of bio fuel

•Subsidy to investment to energy efficient equipments•Promotion of technology transfer

Buildings

Transport & Land use Industry

Low Carbon Region Policy Package

•Controlling urban growth & choice of transport mode

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6. Conclusion

1• The current annual Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in IM are

approximately 12.6 million t-CO2, and in the BaU scenario it will increase to 45.5 million t-CO2 or 3.6 times higher than that of 2005.

2• However by adopting the mitigation options available, by 2025

the emissions can be decreased approximately 60% and suppressed to a 19.6 million t-CO2.

3• The goal of developing Iskandar Malaysia as a Low Carbon Society

is possible with the reduction of CO2 emissions per capita.

4• To realize a LCS, IM has to have new and bold policies to

encourage and promote businesses and citizens have to take countermeasures to lower the emissions levels.

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CS HO , University Technology Malaysia15th AIM INTERNATIONAL WORSHOP

February 20-22, 2010Ohyama Memorial hall, NIES

Tsukuba, Japan

THANK YOU FOR YOUR

ATTENTION

15th AIM INTERNATIONAL WORSHOP