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  • 8/14/2019 Is the Health and Wellness Industry 'Recession Proof'? A Zpryme Market Research and Insights Perspective 2008

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    An examination of leading economic indicators that provide apreeminent reflection of the health and wellness industries historicalsignificance in the U.S. economy and the health and wellnessindustries stability in times of recession.

    Abstract:An examination of leading economic indicators that providepreeminent reflection of the health and wellness industries historisignificance in the U.S. economy and the health and wellness industrstability in times of recession for 2008.

    March 20FOR MORE INFORMATION

    www.zpryme.com

    Copyright 2008 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reser

    s the Health & Wellness Industry Recession Proof

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    Is the Health & Wellness Industry Recession ProoPublished March

    Table of Contents

    The link between the Retail Industry, Health Care Industry and the Health and Wellness Industry ............... 3

    Health Cares Consistent Contribution to GDP ............................................................................................... 4

    Health Care Employment Exceeds Retail Employment in December 2007 .................................................... 5

    Health Care Spending and Spending on Prescription and non-Prescription Drugs ........................................ 5

    Health & Wellness Employment Growth ........................................................................................................ 6

    Health Cares Impact on the Retail Industry Statistical Model .................................................................... 7

    Health Care Drivers: State Level Analysis...................................................................................................... 8

    Retail Drivers: Metropolitan Statistical Area (M.S.A.) Analysis ...................................................................... 8

    Health Cares Impact on Change Retail Economic Activity: State Level Analysis............................................ 9

    Health Cares Impact on Change Retail Economic Activity: M.S.A. Analysis ................................................. 10

    Modeling Considerations ............................................................................................................................. 11

    Conclusions................................................................................................................................................... 12

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    Is the Health & Wellness Industry Recession ProoPublished March

    Is the Health and Wellness Industry Recession Proof?

    Finding stability in unstable times, the state of the current U.S. economy is unpredictable to say the least.

    However, while most U.S. industries have burrowed their own holes in an effort to sit out prior andsubsequent economic storms, the health and wellness industry has instead taken these dejected points in

    time as a mechanism for opportunity. The principle of this analysis is to consider and analyze the

    proposed question Is the Health and Wellness Industry Recession Proof?

    The above question is examined using the comprehensive analysis described below.

    1) Examine the Historyof the health care industry2) Examine the relationship between the health care and health and wellness industry3) Examine the relationship between the retail industry and the health and wellness industry4) Examine the projected employment of health and wellness positions5)

    Econometric analysis of the drivers of the health care and retail across states and major cities6) Econometric analysis of the impact of the health care industry on the retail industry

    Generally, the health and wellness industry is comprised of providers of preventive, remedial, and

    therapeutic products and services focused on the healthy balance of mind, body and/or spirit that results

    in an overall feeling of well-being.

    For this analysis, the health and wellness industry would not be recession proof if the health and wellness

    industry experienced zero or negative growth when the overall U.S. economy experiences a recession as

    defined by the Federal Reserve. Generally, a U.S. recession is a period of general economic decline;

    specifically, a decline in GDP for two or more consecutive quarters. Thus, if the health and wellness industry

    experienced two consecutive quarters of decline because the broader general economy was alsodeclining, then it would not be considered recession proof.

    Generally, the health and wellness industry comprises of providers of preventive, remedial, and

    therapeutic products and services for an individuals healthy balance of the mind, body and/or spirit that

    results in an overall feeling of well-being.

    For this analysis, the health and wellness industry would not be recession proof if the health and wellness

    industry experienced zero or negative growth when the overall U.S. economy experiences a recession as

    defined by the Federal Reserve. Generally, a U.S. recession is a period of general economic decline;

    specifically, a decline in GDP for two or more consecutive quarters. Thus, if the health and wellness industry

    experienced two consecutive quarters of decline because the broader general economy was also

    declining, then it would not be considered recession proof.

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    Is the Health & Wellness Industry Recession ProoPublished March

    The link between the Retail Industry, Health Care Industry and the Health and Wellness Industry

    Critical to this analysis is the assertion that the health and wellness industry is strongly related to the

    performance and growth of the health care industry. However, this assertion is based on basic economic

    principles that can be commonly observed in the daily market place. In making this connection, we can

    further gain insight into the behavior of the health and wellness industry by observing the historicalperformance of the health care industry in periods overall U.S. economic hardship.

    We could probably go on for 100 pages about why there is a high correlation between these industries,

    but for the purposes of this analysis, we will only touch on this topic briefly before going into further

    analysis.

    Since 2001, the health and wellness Industry has increased its share of its total contribution to the U.S.

    Retail Industry, growing from 8.0% of the retail industry in 2001 to 10.7% of retail industry by 2006.

    Additionally, the health and wellness industry has grown at a much faster rate than the retail industry

    showing impressive year-over-year growth in 2005 and 2006.

    Table 1. Health and Wellness Industry, Retail, and Health Care Market in the U.S. 2001 - 2006

    Industry 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

    Health & Wellness $55.0 $59.0 $63.2 $68.0 $79.0 $91.0

    Retail $691.6 $719.6 $751.5 $776.9 $812.7 $848.0

    Health Care $654.2 $706.3 $757.2 $808.0 $847.6 $901.4

    Health & Wellness as a % of the Retail Industry 8.0% 8.2% 8.4% 8.8% 9.7% 10.7%

    Annual Growth

    Health & Wellness 7.3% 7.1% 7.6% 16.2% 15.2%

    Retail 4.0% 4.4% 3.4% 4.6% 4.3%Health Care 8.0% 7.2% 6.7% 4.9% 6.3%

    Source: Natural Marketing Institute and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

    In fact, Table 1 shows that the health and wellness industries annual growth from 2001 to 2004 seemed to

    be more closely related to the growth of the U.S. health care industry. This should come as no surprise

    since the fundamental drivers of both the health care industry and health and wellness industry are closely

    related. Both industries are largely driven by the aging U.S. population which is riddled with many well

    document health problems such as obesity, diabetes, heart disease and asthma, etc.

    The data in Table 1 clearly support the statements above, and help further explain the aggressive growth

    in the health and wellness industry. The consumer logic is very similar to dental hygiene, where consumerswho purchase toothpaste are more likely to purchase mouthwash. Thus, these two goods are

    complimentary because an increase in the demand for toothpaste will lead to an increase in mouthwash

    sales.

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    TOP DRIVERS: Healthcares Impact on the Retail Industry DRIVER EXPLANATION

    Government Policy, Legislation and Regulation

    Health-care designs and competitors are gainingground, with low-cost walk-in health-care centers

    for common ailments at one end of thecontinuum, and highly personalized conciergecare at the other. Another example without theFDA approval, a prescription drug would neverenter a pharmacy.

    Complimentary GoodsConsumers acquire prescription drugs with theirphysicians authorization. The same consumermay also obtain vitamins and herbal supplementsas a preventive measure for their wellbeing.

    Healthcare Creates High-Skilled Jobs

    The healthcare industry has created and filledmore high-skilled careers than any other industry.This in effect has created a large pool ofconsumers that have access to an ever increasingpocket of discretionary income the majority inwhich is spent on retail products and services.

    A strong health care sector directly impacts the retail sector by creating high skilled jobs, and by driving

    complementary good sales at the retail level (as described above). As the health care sector expands, this

    will create more of the high paying jobs, and thus create more consumers who have higher discretionary

    incomes. In the end, all activities of economic stimulus in the economy as it relate to the health and wellness

    industry is driven by government policy, legislation and regulation.

    Health Cares Consistent Contribution to GDP

    The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has a large impact on each person within the U.S. economy; in

    consequence the gross domestic product is the most commonly economic indicator used to measure the

    economic growth of the U.S.

    An investigation of the contributions to percent change in real gross domestic product by the health care

    and retail industry revealed that even during U.S. economic hardship the health care industry continued to

    sustain growth, while the retail sector experienced mild forms of decline. The U.S. retail industry is

    correlated with the health and wellness industry as the health and wellness industry has a substantial stake

    in retail products and services.

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    Is the Health & Wellness Industry Recession ProoPublished March

    0

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000

    12,000

    14,000

    16,000

    18,000

    1971

    1972

    1978

    Chart 1. Retail and Health Care Employment, 1970 - 2007

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

    Retail

    Health

    Care

    $0

    $500

    $1,000

    $1,500

    $2,000

    $2,500

    $3,000

    198

    4

    198

    5

    198

    6

    198

    7

    198

    8

    198

    9

    199

    0

    199

    1

    199

    2

    199

    3

    199

    4

    199

    5

    199

    6

    199

    7

    199

    8

    199

    9

    200

    0

    200

    1

    200

    2

    200

    3

    200

    4

    200

    5

    200

    6

    Chart 2. Average U.S. Consumer Expenditures on Health Care and

    Prescription and Non-PrescriptionSource : Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditures Survey

    Health Care Expenditures

    Presecription and Non-Prescription Drug

    Expeditures

    Health Care Employment Exceeds Retail Employment in December 2007

    Another variable fostering

    this growth in the health care

    sector, and as of this pastDecember 2007, the health

    care industry has even

    eclipsed the dominant retail

    industry in total number of

    employees with more than 15

    million active health related

    careers.

    Health Care Spending and Spending on Prescription and non-Prescription Drugs

    In the U.S. the average

    expenditures on health care

    and on prescription and non-

    prescription drugs has

    experienced aggressivegrowth from 1984 to 2006.

    Average annual health care

    expenditures increased by

    163.7% from 2000 to 2006,

    reaching $2,766 in 2006.

    Prescription and non-

    prescription drugs

    expenditures increased by

    207.8% from 2000 to 2006,reaching $514 in 2006.

    Health care is becoming more expensive for people. Broken down by age groups: 25-34, 35-44, 45-54

    are under the cumulative growth rate for income per unit while, the other age groups: under 25, 55-64,

    65-74, and 75 and over, experienced cumulative growth rates higher than income per unit. Health care

    spending for those over 75 increased the greatest, while those under 25 experienced growths in their

    health care spending that exceeded the income per unit growth rate. Income per unit increases and

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    decreases over time do not seem to have an effect on spending. Those under 25 seem to experience the

    highest fluctuations in spending increases/ decreases, which can likely be attributed to smaller rates of

    people seeking health care, less preventative medicine, as well as enjoying lower health maintenance costs

    compared to the older groups. The 65-74 year old age group has the highest current level of health care

    expenditure. This can be attributed to higher health care costs, increased medical procedures and

    medications, etc. at this age.

    For the past 23 years, prescription and non prescription drug expenditures have risen from $167 of the

    total $1,049 spent on health care per person in 1984, to $514 of the $2,766 spent on health care per

    person in 2007. The average drug expenditure rate in relation to total expenditures on health care is

    17.82%, ranging from a low of 15.9% in 1984 to a high of 20.7% in 2002. These rates vary greater

    than those of the amount of income per unit spent on health care. This means that the costs of drugs are

    growing at a higher rate than both the income per unit as well as the total health care expenditure. The

    cumulative growth rate for drug expenditures across all age groups in relation to overall health care is

    117.8% for the 23 years. Age groups under 25, 25-34. , 35-44 are clearly below this rate, while those

    in the age group of 45-54 are close to the same rate. The cumulative growth rate for those in age groups

    55-64, 65-74, and 75 and above is higher than the overall rate. The correlation between decreases in

    total health care spending and drug expenditures is clear. As the spending on health care decreases, so

    will the spending on drugs. This is a logical result as medications are a portion of health care, and are

    dependent on its spending. In recent years, there has been a decrease in proportions of health care

    spending on prescription and non prescription drugs which could be explained by the use of alternative

    methods of treatment, holistic approaches gaining popularity as well as an increase of individuals across

    all age groups living a healthier life style.

    Health & Wellness Employment Growth

    An analysis of data pertaining to employment growth per industry has exposed insightful suggestions of

    the financial viability contiguous to the health care industry. Extending from 1996 thru 2006, the health

    care had realized an average occupational growth rate of 2.5% per year- which is nothing less than

    impressive, ranking it 3nd overall when compared to all other industries. Furthermore, an economic

    investigation of the forecasted data based on a methodology derived from the U.S. Bureau of Labor

    Statistics, reveals that an equivalent trend will persist into 2016. Further analysis demonstrated that the

    prediction models offered support for future growth of the health care industry occupations from 2008 -

    2016 - preserving their position in close proximity to the top when growth rates are compared to all other

    high growth industries. Historical data has also revealed that even in slow economic times, more

    specifically, existing Federal Reserve confirmed recessions in our nations past; the health care industry still

    continued to provide stable employment and new innovations in occupational efficiency. This evidence wascross referenced and obtained in a breakdown of all occupational segments of the health care industry.

    Another central finding was considered; upon studying the historical data of the occupational growth of the

    top 6 segments of the health care industry leads one to believe this industry is as close to recession proof

    as any one industry could be. The health care occupations that are the least susceptible to recession are:

    Home Health Aides, Medical Assistants, Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers, Physical

    Therapists, Health Care Support, and Health Educators. All 6 of these sub -industries have experienced

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    substantial rates of occupational growth in the past decade, and are predicted to sustain these high levels

    of growth from 2008 - 2016. For example, home health aides are expected to grow by 48.73% in the

    next ten years, while medical assistant positions are expected to grow by 35.42%; followed by Mental

    Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers, Physical Therapists, Health Care Support Occupations, and

    Health Educators- growing at 29.91%, 27.06%, 26.78%, and 26.19% respectively.

    A clear distinction in positive growth was drawn when the health care industry was compared to that of all

    other industries - the dissimilarity in industry growth further corroborates that the health care industry is

    inelastic to times of recession. From 2008 thru 2016 the Health Care Industry is forecasted to have an

    average occupational growth rate of 2.45% per year. When compared to the occupational growth rates

    of all other industries, the health care industry ranks in 1 st place. This is remarkable considering the health

    care industry occupational growth rate ranked 3rd when compared to all others from 1996-2006.

    Moreover, this mark in increase has occurred during the presence of a recession, while all but a few

    industries have substantial drops in employment and intensified levels of layoffs. For example, the retail

    industry average occupational growth rate is expected to fall from 0.8 % per year during 1996-2006 to

    0.4% from 2008 - 2016. The average growth rate (per year) of occupations for every industry during the

    period 1996-2006 was 1.16% and plunged to 1.05% with the health care industry removed from the

    calculationanother optimistic indication of the economic strength of the health care industry.

    Each individual segment of the health care industry is showing inherited signs of exceptionally strong future

    occupational growth rates. Ranked 2nd and 3rd among the 30 industries with the largest growing

    occupational opportunities are; Personal Home Care and Health Aid Markets- which have forecasted

    improvements in absolute employment growth of 50.6% and 48.7%- for 2008-2016. These are behind

    only the Network systems and data communications analysts market. These same segments also maintain

    the same standings when ranked among the top 30 Fastest Growing Occupations/Industries from 2008 to

    2016. As a result, the health care industry could quite possibly show no signs of recession symptoms and

    continue to provide new opportunities for new occupations, stable employment opportunities, and aconsistent environment for investing and generating unwavering cash flows - even when recession rears its

    ugly head.

    Health Cares Impact on the Retail Industry Statistical Model

    This analysis has established the following thus far:

    1. In the U.S. the average expenditures on health care and on prescription and non-prescriptiondrugs has experienced aggressive growth from 1984 to 2006

    2.

    From 1970 to 2006, the health care industry has always made a positive contribution to GDP.3. For the first time in U.S. history, in December of 2007, the health care industry employed more

    persons in the U.S. than the retail industry.

    Our final analysis tries to tie all these findings together by examining the impact the health care industry

    has on the retail sector.

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    Health Care Drivers: State Level Analysis

    State level data was used in this analysis because the data included all 50 states and the District of

    Columbia whereas the Metropolitan Statistical Area, MSA data was only available for 136 MSAs

    meaning that just under half of the population would not be accounted for in the MSA analysis. Eight cross

    sectional models were used to examine how age, education, per-capita income, and total employmentimpact the level of health care economic activity (output in millions of dollars) at the state level for every

    year from 1999 to 2006.

    Table 2. Key Driver Statistical Analysis by Year and State, 1999 - 2006

    Economic Driver 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

    Size of Population Age 18 to 24 + + + + + + + +Size of Population Age 25 to 39 - - - - - - - -Size of Population Age 40 to 69 + + + + + + + +Size of Population Age70+

    - - - - - - - +Total Population with a BA Degree orHigher + + + + + + + +Total Persons Employed - - - - - - - -Per Capita Income in 1999 + + + + + + + +

    Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Census and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

    Note: Shaded blue cells in table 2 represent that the variable was statistically significant at the .05 level of probability. A +indicates the variable made a positive contribution to the level of health care economic activ ity while a - means the variablemade a negative contribution to the level of health care economic activity.

    Key Findings:

    1. Educational level of the 18 to 24, 25 to 39, and 40 to 69 age groups significantly and positivelycontributed to the amount of health care economic activity from 1999 to 2004.

    2. Educational level of the 25 to 39 and 40 to 69 age groups all significantly and positivelycontributed to the amount of health care economic activity from 2005 to 2006.

    Interpretation: On average, states with large populations of people 18 to 24, 25 to 39, and 40 to 69 are

    expected to have higher health care output. Additionally, education is important because possibly, being

    educated raised the state level of employment, and thus access to general health care.

    Retail Drivers: Metropolitan Statistical Area (M.S.A.) Analysis

    MSA level data was used in this analysis because the data compared 252 MSAs, and thus allowed for

    much more variation to be considered in the analysis, and account for a good majority of the U.S.

    population. Five cross sectional models were used to examine how age, education, household income, and

    total employment impact the level of retail economic activity (output in millions of dollars) at the MSA level

    for every year from 2001 to 2005.

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    Table 3. Key Driver Statistical Analysis by Year and MSA/Market, 2001 - 2005

    Economic Driver 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

    Size of Population Age 18 to 24 - - - - -

    Size of Population Age 25 to 39 + + + + +

    Size of Population Age 40 to 69 - - - - -Size of Population Age70+ + + + + +

    Total Households Making $75,000 to $124,999 + + + + +

    Total Households Making $125,000+ - - - - -

    Total Population with a BA Degree or Higher + + + + +

    Total Persons Employed - - - - - Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Census and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

    Note: Shaded blue cells in table 3 represent that the variable was statistically significant at the .05 level of probability. A +

    indicates the variable made a positive contribution to the level of retail economic activity while a - means the variable made a

    negative contribution to the level of retail economic activity.

    Key Findings:

    1. Educational level of the 25 to 39 and 70+ age groups all significantly and positively contributedto the amount of retail economic activity from 2001 to 2005. The age group 70+ was not

    significant in 2002.

    2. From 2001 to 2005, the age group 18 to 24 made a significant and negative contribution to thelevel of retail economic activity.

    Interpretation: On average, MSAs/markets with large populations of people 18 to 24 relative to other age

    groups, are expected to have lower overall retail sales. This is likely explained by the fact that this age groupis likely to spend less at the retail level because their overall incomes are lower compared to their peers who

    are older and have more work experience. Additionally, education is important because it raised the level of

    income, and thus their discretionary income.

    Health Cares Impact on Change Retail Economic Activity: State Level Analysis

    State level data was used in this analysis to capture the entire U.S. population, and to identify if the

    outcomes are consistent with the results of the MSA level model discussed below. Seven cross sectional

    models were used to examine how health care output (% change from previous year), age, education,

    income, and total employment, impacted the change in the level of retail economic activity (output inmillions of dollars) at the MSA level for every year from 1999 to 2006.

    Key Findings:

    1. Across states, holding all the variables mentioned above equal, an annual percentage increase inthe health care industry had a positive and significant impact on the annual percentage increase

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    on the retail industry in 2002, 2004, and 2005. These findings are consistent with the MSA level

    analysis below.

    2. The change from 1999 to 2000 showed a negative and significant impact, but this was the onlyyear that such an instance was observed.

    Interpretation: On average, growth in the health care industry contributes to economic growth in the retailindustry. States with growing health care industries are more likely to experience growth in their respective

    retail sectors.

    Chart 1. State Level Analysis of Health Care Impact on Percent Change in Retail Economic Activity

    Interpretation: Results reported as average percent change in retail annual growth given a 1% increase/growth in

    the health care market. For example, from 01 to 02, in a given market, if health care output grew by 1%, we would

    expect a 0.36% increase in the retail economic output for that respective market. That is only the contribution of the

    health care industry. Other factors taken in aggregate would be used to predict the total growth, but this analysis is

    focused on the contribution to retail growth attributed to the health care sector.

    -0.47%

    0.07%

    0.36%

    0.13%

    0.66%

    0.80%

    0.22%

    -0.60%

    -0.40%

    -0.20%

    0.00%

    0.20%

    0.40%

    0.60%

    0.80%1.00%

    99 to 00 PctChange*

    00 to 01 PctChange

    01 to 02 PctChange*

    02 to 03 PctChange

    03 to 04 PctChange*

    04 to 05 PctChange*

    05 to 06 PctChange

    Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Census and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

    *Indicates that health care variable was significant in impacting the percent change in retail economic activity. Significant variables arealso shaded in red with a black outline.

    Health Cares Impact on Change Retail Economic Activity: M.S.A. Analysis

    MSA level data was used in this analysis because the data comprised 136 MSAs that had both retail and

    health care data available from 2001 to 2005. Four cross sectional models were used to examine how

    health care output (% change from previous year), age, education, income, and total employmentimpacted the change in the level of retail economic activity (output in millions of dollars) at the MSA level

    for every year from 2001 to 2005.

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    Key Findings:

    1. Across markets (MSAs), holding all the variables mentioned above equal, an annual percentageincrease in the health care industry had a positive and significant impact on the annual percentage

    increase on the retail industry in 2002, 2004, and 2005.

    2.

    The MSA level findings show that the impact of the health care industry on the retail industry is abit smaller when compared to the state level analysis.

    Interpretation: On average, growth in the health care industry can contributes to economic growth in theretail industry. Markets or MSAs with expanding health care industries are more likelyto experiencegrowth in their respective retail sectors.

    Chart 2. MSA/Market Analysis of Health Care Impact on Percent Change in Retail Economic Activity

    Interpretation: Results reported as average percent change in retail annual growth (percent change) given a 1%

    increase/growth in the health care market. For example, from 2001to 2002, in a given market, if health care output

    grew by 1%, we would expect a 0.20% increase in the retail economic output for that respective market. That is only

    the contribution of the health care industry and other factors, taken in aggregate, would need to be used to predictthe total growth. This analysis is focused on the contribution to retail growth attributed to the health care sector.

    0.20%

    -0.08%

    0.38%

    0.28%

    -0.10%

    -0.05%

    0.00%

    0.05%

    0.10%

    0.15%

    0.20%

    0.25%

    0.30%

    0.35%

    0.40%

    01 to 02 Pct Change 02 to 03 Pct Change 03 to 04 Pct Change 04 to 05 Pct Change

    Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Census and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

    *Indicates that health care variable was significant in impacting the percent change in retail economic activity. Significant variables arealso shaded in red with a black outline.

    Modeling Considerations

    In a perfect world, we would have historical employment and sales data from the health and wellnessindustry to investigate, but that data is not available to the public, and we suspect that private

    corporations would not release the data even if they had it.

    In this report, we have made the case that the health and wellness and health care industries are in fact

    highly correlated, and this analysis does a good job of capturing the health and wellness industrys

    recession resiliency.

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    Health & Wellness Practice | www.zpryme.com 12

    ght 2008 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved.

    Is the Health & Wellness Industry Recession ProoPublished March

    Conclusions

    There exists substantial economic and statistical evidence to support the claim that the health and wellness

    industry is recession proof. As long as the health care sector in the U.S. continues its current course, then so

    will the demand for health and wellness complimentary products.

    There is much more to be addressed regarding this subject, and this analysis is a starting point rather than

    an ending point in regards to this dynamic topic. Todays markets are assiduous, and globally integrated

    and thus careful attention should be warranted when implementing strategies based on the historical

    performance of an industry.

    We recommend a constant monitoring and evaluation system to each respective agent in the health and

    wellness industry that can be used to gauge current market performance. Many times, decision and policy

    makers act upon their gut feeling or years of industry experience, however, without accurate information,

    such a decision can be very unsafe. Now, if this same decision is combined with timely and accurate

    information on market performance, then the more likely the profit maximizing (or cost minimizing) courseof action will be taken.

    It is our sincere belief that inaction is much more likely to cause a decline in any market players or

    industrys performance rather than the overall general economy. In time of general economic decline, a

    solution could be simply broadening ones product line, diversifying ones customer base, or entering

    global markets that have a rising middle-class with a stable upper-class as a buffer, to absorb growth until

    the market in question returns to a period of economic growth.

    DisclaimerThese materials and the information contained herein are provided by Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC and are intended to provide generalinformation on a particular subject or subjects and is not an exhaustive treatment of such subject(s). Accordingly, the information in these materials isnot intended to constitute accounting, tax, legal, investment, consulting or other professional advice or services. The information is not intended to berelied upon as the sole basis for any decision which may affect you or your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that mightaffect your personal finances or business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. These materials and the information contained hereinis provided as is, and Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC makes no express or implied representations or warranties regarding these materialsand the information herein. Without limiting the foregoing, Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC does not warrant that the materials or informationcontained herein will be error-free or will meet any particular criteria of performance or quality. Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC expresslydisclaims all implied warranties, including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability, title, fitness for a particular purpose, noninfringement,compatibility, security, and accuracy. Prediction of future events is inherently subject to both known and unknown risks, uncertainties and otherfactors that may cause actual results to vary materially. Your use of these and the information contained herein is at your own risk and you assumefull responsibility and risk of loss resulting from the use thereof. Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC will not be liable for any special, indirect,incidental, consequential, or punitive damages or any other damages whatsoever, whether in an action of contract, statute, tort (including, withoutlimitation, negligence), or otherwise, relating to the use of these materials and the information contained herein.

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