iri - 2011 dec 19_ survey of eastern libya public opinion, october 12-25, 2011
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Survey of Public Opinion in
Eastern LibyaOctober 12 25, 2011
This survey was conducted by Shabakat Corporation - www.shabakat.se
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Survey Specifications
Conducted by Shabakat Corporation on behalf of the International Republican Institute. CaerusAssociates LLC contributed statistical analysis.
Fieldwork was carried out October 12 25, 2011.
The survey includes six out of Libyas 22 districts: Al-Butnan, Al-Jabal Al-Akhdar, Al-Marj, Al-Wahat,Benghazi and Darnah. These six districts make up Libyas eastern region.
The sample was 1,428 adult Libyan citizens (age 18+).
Overall margin of error = +/- 2.6 percent.
Interview data was collected using in-person, face-to-face methodology by trained professionalinterviewers.
Women interviewed women, and men interviewed men.
Households were randomly selected using a multi-stage stratification proportionate to populationsample distribution across the survey universe of six districts.
Levels of stratification: (1) district (all six districts were sampled), (2) urban/semi-rural/rural, (3)municipality, (4) cluster, (5) household, (6) individual
Only one individual was interviewed per randomly selected household. The Kish grid method wasused to select respondents within the household.
The right-hand method was used to select every third household within each randomly selectedcluster.
The response rate was 92.4 percent. The numerator for this figure is the number of surveys that wererun to completion. The denominator is all respondents who were at home and met the qualifyingcriteria: aged 18 or older, residing at the address sampled, and not an National Transitional Council(NTC) official, a local-council official, a member of the military or police, a member of the media, or amember of any other security agency.
Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.
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GENERAL
Survey questions
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Now thinking about how things are going in Libya as awhole, how would you say things are going in our
country overall these days? Are they going in the right
direction or the wrong direction?
Right
direction
84%
Wrong
direction
6%
Refused 2%
Don't know
8%
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GOVERNMENT & POLITICS
Survey questions
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Do you support the NTC?
84%
12%
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
Strongly support
Moderately support
No opinion
Moderately
unsupportive
Strongly unsupportive
Refused
Don't know
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36%
29%
22%
8%
2%
2%
2%
0%
Mustafa Abdul Jalil*
No specific individuals or groups / All NTC
members
Mahmoud Jibril**
Mustafa Abdul Jalil and Mahmoud Jibril
Don't know
Refused
Other
None
Are there specific individuals or groups yousupport within the NTC?
(open-ended question)
*Mustafa Abdul Jalil is chairman of the NTC and therefore Libyas interim head of state.
**Mahmoud Jibril was chairman of the NTCs executive board and therefore Libyas interim prime minister. He hadpromised to resign after Libyas had been liberated, and on October 23, 2011 (during the course of this survey), he did so.
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How likely is the NTC to address the issues of Libya?
63%
31%
3%
1%
0%
3%
Very likely
Somewhat likely
Not very likely
Not at all likely
Refused
Don't know
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What should be the NTC top priority?(closed-ended question)
33%
22%
19%
8%
4%
14%
0%
0%
Weapons collection
Medical treatment
Provision of security
Organizing a proper government
Ensuring distribution of wealth
Other
Refused
Don't know
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What should be the main priority of the NTC?(open-ended question)
19%
15%
13%
13%
12%6%
4%
3%
3%
3%1%
1%
1%
0%
6%
Establish new government
Care for the injured and for families of martyrs
Security provision
Don't know
Weapons collectionWealth distribution
Infrastructure
Constitution
Employment
RefusedTake care of youth
Tribes
Ex-Gaddafi officials
Misinformed population
Other
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How important is it for the government to...?
Veryimportant
Somewhatimportant
IndifferentSomewhat
unimportantVery
unimportantRefused /
Don't know
Provide food and housingfor poor people in society 97% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Play central role in the
economy and businesssector
72% 16% 2% 2% 4% 3%
Have laws that governsocial issues, such asdivorce and marriage
67% 15% 3% 2% 10% 2%
Allow the press and mediathe freedom to publishanything they want
56% 27% 3% 5% 5% 3%
Have laws that give allreligious and tribal groupsequal rights
56% 15% 6% 5% 12% 6%
Have laws that governreligious issues, such aswhere you can worship
37% 13% 5% 7% 27% 9%
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67%
45%
42%
14%
17%
31%
31%
28%
14%
21%
22%
54%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Head of household
NTC member
Religious leader
Tribal leader
Strong influence
Some influence
No influence
Refused
Don't know
How much influence does this individuals opinionhave on you and your opinions about current events
and politics?
1% 3%
1% 3%
1% 3%
1% 2%
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55%
40%
36%
28%
13%
26%
31%
29%
34%
24%
9%
13%
11%
16%
16%
8%
13%
19%
19%
42%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
NTC
Volunteers
Local brigades
Local police
Local tribe
A great dealA fair amount
Only a little
Not at all
Refused
Don't know
How much do you trust _________ to protect yourneighborhood?
1% 4%
3%
1% 4%
2%
1%
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How do you feel about the following statements?
Stronglyagree
Somewhatagree
No opinionSomewhat
disagreeStronglydisagree
Refused /Don'tknow
People should beprohibited from
offending other religions
86% 8% 1% 1% 2% 1%
Religion should be part ofpublic life (e.g. publiceducation)
84% 11% 1% 1% 2% 1%
Religion should be part ofgovernment 68% 17% 2% 4% 7% 1%
Religion should be part aprivate/personal issue 44% 13% 3% 8% 28% 3%
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Would you approve or disapprove of the futuregovernment of Libya being secular?
Approve 14%
Disapprove
69%
Refused 2%Don't know
16%
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When should national elections occur in Libya?
44%
34%
8%
8%
5%
1%
Within six months
Less than a year
More than one year
Between one and two years
Don't know
Refused
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What system of government would you like to havein Libya?
43%
35%
7%
7%
6%
2%
A democratic system with a strong
president
A democratic system with a strong
parliament
A federalist system that would allow
for local autonomy
A constitutional monarchy
Don't know
Refused
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How do you feel about the following individuals andgroups?
Stronglypositive
Somewhatpositive
No feelingSomewhatnegative
Stronglynegative
Refused /Don't know
Mustafa Abdul Jalil 87% 5% 1% 1% 0% 6%
February 17th Youth 76% 20% 2% 1% 1% 0%
Mahmoud Jibril 70% 17% 3% 3% 2% 6%
NTC military 67% 24% 3% 1% 1% 3%
Local volunteers 59% 31% 3% 2% 3% 3%
NTC members 58% 31% 4% 2% 1% 3%
Local brigades 52% 34% 4% 3% 2% 4%
NTC police 46% 37% 6% 3% 3% 6%
Obeidi tribe 42% 34% 8% 5% 4% 8%
Amazigh tribe 37% 29% 6% 3% 7% 18%
Ali Al-Issawi 24% 20% 10% 5% 6% 35%
Jihadists 20% 16% 13% 6% 18% 27%
Tribal leaders 16% 39% 19% 9% 13% 4%
Ahmed Hussein Al-Darrat 15% 16% 10% 2% 2% 54%
Jalal Al-Digheily 14% 18% 10% 3% 5% 49%
Abdullah Shamia 14% 14% 7% 2% 2% 61%
Salafists 11% 17% 18% 10% 15% 29%
Muslim Brotherhood 9% 22% 17% 9% 16% 26%
Tebus tribe 8% 16% 13% 7% 13% 43%
Maghara tribe 6% 24% 14% 14% 20% 22%
Touareg tribe 4% 15% 14% 10% 21% 36%
Ghaddafa tribe 2% 21% 10% 20% 34% 13%
Genturyah tribe 2% 2% 4% 6% 81% 5%
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ECONOMY & EVERYDAY LIFE
Survey questions
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How would you describe the current economicsituation in Libya?
16%
59%
18%
6%
0%
1%
Very good
Somewhat good
Somewhat bad
Very bad
Refused
Don't know
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Over the last year, how has your householdsfinancial situation changed?
12%
36%
25%
17%
8%
2%
1%
Gotten much better
Gotten somewhat better
Stayed the same
Gotten somewhat worse
Gotten much worse
Refused
Don't know
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In the next year, how do you expect yourhouseholds financial situation to change?
72%
20%
2%
1%
0%
0%
4%
Get much better
Get somewhat better
Stay the same
Get somewhat worse
Get much worse
Refused
Don't know
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How has the situation changed over the past yearwith regard to...?
Gottenmuch better
Gottensomewhat
better
Stayed thesame
Gottensomewhat
worse
Gottenmuchworse
Refused /Don'tknow
Development ofindependent media
48% 31% 7% 3% 10% 1%
Development ofindependent civil society
30% 33% 17% 2% 10% 8%
Access to electricity 19% 30% 42% 6% 3% 0%
Security 16% 34% 18% 20% 11% 2%
Access to water 15% 20% 54% 6% 5% 0%
Living standards 9% 35% 33% 14% 9% 1%
Education 5% 18% 55% 8% 13% 1%Health care 4% 17% 37% 19% 22% 1%
Unemployment 2% 12% 55% 11% 17% 3%
Infrastructure 2% 4% 50% 13% 29% 1%
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In your opinion, is it yourright to have a firearm in
your home?
To your knowledge, is therea firearm in your home?
Yes 20%
No 78%
Refused 1% Don't know
1%Yes 12%
No 87%
Refused
1%
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If you could pick only one of the following, whichwould you first consider yourself to be?
48%
41%
9%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Muslim
Libyan
Arab
Member of a tribe
African
Refused
Don't know
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FOREIGN RELATIONS
Survey questions
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What is your opinion of...?
Highlyfavorable
Somewhatfavorable
No opinionSomewhat
unfavorableHighly
unfavorable
Refused /Don'tknow
Qatar 94% 5% 0% 0% 1% 1%
France 84% 11% 2% 1% 1% 1%
the United ArabEmirates
76% 18% 1% 1% 2% 2%
NATO 68% 21% 2% 3% 5% 1%Tunisia 60% 34% 2% 1% 2% 1%
the United States 60% 30% 2% 2% 4% 2%
the United Nations 60% 31% 3% 2% 2% 2%
the European Union 53% 33% 4% 3% 2% 5%
the Arab League 51% 33% 4% 4% 6% 2%
Egypt 45% 41% 4% 5% 4% 1%
the African Union 7% 9% 6% 12% 62% 3%
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Which country does Libyahave the best relations with?
69%
21%
2%
1%
1%
4%
0%
1%
Qatar
France
USAUK
Italy
Other
Refused
Don't know
68%
25%
3%
1%
0%
3%
0%
1%
Qatar
France
USAUK
Italy
Other
Refused
Don't know
Which country has mostsupported the NTC?
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Which country do you trustmost in its relations with
Libya?
Which country has been theleast supportive of Libya?
71%
13%
4%1%
1%
5%
1%
4%
Qatar
France
USAUK
Italy
Other
Refused
Don't know
68%
7%
5%2%
2%
13%
1%
3%
Algeria
China
Niger
Chad
India
Other
Refused
Don't know
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Do you support international development to assist
Libya with its transition to democracy?
70%
18%
3%
6%
0%
3%
Highly supportive
Somewhat supportive
Somewhat unsupportive
Highly unsupportive
Refused
Don't know
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PROFILE OF SURVEY SAMPLE
Survey questions
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Sampled Municipalities
Al-Butnn(District 1)
Darnah(District 2)
Al-Jabal
Al-Akhdar(District 3)
Tubruq (semi-urban)Musid (rural)Kambt (rural)
Darnah (semi-urban)Al-Qubbah (rural)Al-Tamm (rural)
MudriyatMatrbah (rural)
Al-Bayd (semi-urban)Shahht (rural)Zwiyat Bishrah
(rural)Al-Labraq (rural)Fidyah (rural)
Al-Marj(District 4)
Benghazi(District 5)
Al-Wht(District 6)
Al-Marj (semi-urban)Al-Abyr (rural)Sd Khalfah (rural)Talmthah (rural)Battah (rural)
Jardas al-Abd (rural)
Benghazi (urban)Sulq (rural)Al-Nawwaqyah (rural)
Ajdbiyah (semi-urban)Jl (rural)Awjilah (rural)Al-Zuwaytnah (rural)
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Respondent age*
18-25
38%
26-35
32%
36-50
23%
Over 50
7%
Respondent gender*
*This is after all results were post-weighted by gender. The gender breakdown of the actual respondent sample was 69percent male, 31 percent female. All figures in this presentation reflect post-weighting by gender.
Male
51%
Female
49%
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Monthly household income(as stated by recipient)
5%
7%
8%
41%
28%
7%
4%
2%
Refused
Don't know
LD 200 or less
LD 201 - LD 500
LD 501 - LD 1,000
LD 1,001 - LD 1,500
LD 1,501 - LD 2,500
More than LD 2,500
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Which answer best describes your currenteconomic condition?
12%
16%
53%
7%
5%
8%
I am able to afford things like new clothes and
eating out and also support other members of my
family who are not able to do these things
I am able to afford things like new clothes and
eating at restaurants but not often
I have enough means for survival, but I do not
have enough money for extra things
I have trouble feeding myself and my family, and
buying even the most essential things for survival
Refused
Don't know