iran’s capital markets - the outlook and respective drivers
TRANSCRIPT
IRAN’S CAPITAL MARKETS
THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT DECEMBER 2017
ASSET MANAGEMENT AND PRIVATE EQUITY
WHAT WE DO
2
GRIFFON CAPITAL OVERVIEW
3
Griffon Capital is an Asset Management and Private Equity group focused solely on the Iranian
market
Founded and managed by a unique
mix of shareholders and senior
management on-the-ground in
Iran. The team has extensive
experience in the Iranian market
and has worked many years for top
tier global financial institutions.
Our team is further strengthened
by a team of world class senior
advisors who ensure that we align
ourselves with best international
practices
Backed by a group of strategic
shareholders, which include
European and Middle Eastern
family offices and international
investment companies with
extensive frontier market
experience.
These shareholders significantly
increase the reach of our network
and our ability to seed various
investment vehicles and products
offered by our business units.
Our Asset Management and
Corporate Finance Advisory
platforms are fully licensed and
regulated by the Securities and
Exchange Organization (SEO) of Iran.
We develop extensive in-house
research covering over 16 sectors.
Our Corporate Finance team has a
successful track record of completing
transactions for leading international
clients.
Local / International Team Strategic Shareholders Licensed and Regulated
What do we do
What sets us apart?
One of Griffon’s key differentiating
factors is our competency to cover
the whole spectrum of public and
private equity markets.
Aside from being able to provide a
broader array of products to our
investors, leveraging sector
information from the public market
as well as Private Equity insight,
provides our team with a 360‘ view
of the opportunities.
Public and Private Equity
THREE COMPLEMENTARY BUSINESS LINES
4
Asset Management Cross-border M&APrivate Equity
‒ Mergers & Acquisitions advisory
‒ Executed largest recent landmark cross
border M&A deals in Iran
‒ Focused on creating synergies with
Griffon’s PE fund
‒ Integrated an existing advisory firm in
2014 – ABIC
‒ an experienced team with over 13
years of local experience
‒ Strong deal track record
‒ Only team in Iran led by senior
investment bankers from top
international investment banks
‒ Unique understanding of the local
market
‒ Ongoing strategic dialogue with key
players in the market
‒ Offering bespoke portfolio management services that satisfy a broad mix of investor requirements
‒ April 2016 launch- The GIF Fund SP-open ended fund investing in listed equities
‒ Investment philosophy and strategy based on fundamental, bottom up, proprietary research
‒ Strong team on-the-ground- 50 years combined (domestic & international)investment management experience coupled with analysts’ proprietary research covering 15 sectors
‒ Structure to allow institutional access
‒ Transparent and regulated structure
‒ Robust sanctions compliance framework structured by Herbert Smith Freehills London
‒ Cayman CIMA registered Fund with Fully licensed and regulated Domestic Manager
‒ Institutional standard risk framework and corporate governance
‒ First Private Equity fund and Club Deal
platform for the Iranian market
‒ Focused on the consumer sector
‒ Unique team on the ground
‒ Unparalleled access to proprietary
pipeline of deals
‒ 320+ companies met, 64 soft due
diligence
‒ Building on strength of corporate
finance team
‒ Unique position in the consumer
and tech ecosystems
‒ Deep and extensive local network
‒ Focus on value enhancement
‒ International level governance
‒ Reporting and auditing
‒ Operational efficiency
‒ Clear path to exit
1 2 3
WHY IRAN?
5
IRAN: THE FASTEST GROWING, LARGEST AND CHEAPEST ‘FRONTIER MARKET’
6
Source: MSCI, TSE
Source: MSCI, TSE
The highest dividend yield (hist.)
The largest by Market Capitalisation
The cheapest by P/E (hist.) ratio
The largest number of listed equity securities
Source: Stock exchanges, TSE
Source: MSCI, TSE
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
USD
bn
438
383
342 335
299
195 190172
150 124
83 73 67 45
6.5x 6.6x
8.4x 8.8x
10.7x 11.2x 11.8x13.2x 13.5x
15.5x 15.8x 15.8x
19.9x21.2x 10.6%
6.7% 6.5%
4.9%4.5% 4.2%
3.7% 3.7% 3.4%
2.5% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%
1.1%
WHY IRAN? FIRST MOVERS ARE ALREADY HERE..
7
What makes Iran attractive
• Very low valuations compared to othermarkets in the region and peers.
• Economy grew 13% last Iranian fiscal year.The stock market was up 29% despitepolitical tensions. In its Iran focusedreport, McKinsey referred to Iran as thenext trillion dollar opportunity.
• Large- PPP basis the economy is largerthan Australia and with a largedemographic dividend – 80m population,60% under 35.
• Diversified economy: largest exporter ofcement, 9th largest auto manufacturer,4th largest in oil reserves, 2nd largest gasreserves, 9th in copper, 1st in Zinc and avibrant Tech startup scene.
• Surprisingly well developed: welldeveloped with: 101% mobilepenetration, 73% banking & ATM cardpenetration, 54 airports, two stockexchanges with over 400 actively tradedcompanies.
Other multinationals already have
• You are in good company - committed FDIin 2016 according to IMF was $12 bn.
• Many multinationals and their products arealready present in Iran.
• Coke, Pepsi, Nestle, Danone, Henkel are toname a few.
• Henkel recently purchased a plant for €153million.
• Boeing recently signed a contact to sell$3bn of planes to Aseman.
Strategic location
• Direct beneficiary of OBOR (One Belt oneRoad)- Hugely strategic transit route, SilkRoad economics stand 2,200 years later.
• Regional population cluster ~300m people -Warm water access for landlockedcountries
DIVERSIFIED AND GROWING ECONOMY
8
Source: CBI, World Bank
Oil accounts for only about 12% of the GDPLowest external debt in the region
Source: The Mobile World
High banking and mobile penetration Developed infrastructure
54Commercial airports
215,157 kmRoads
10,407 kmRailway
15Ports
Source: CBI
101%
63%
Mobilepenetration rate
(Iran)
Mobilepenetration rate
(Global)
92%87%
61% 57%
Account at a formalfinancial
instutation(%age15+)
Account at a formalfinancial
female(%age15+)
Iran Global
718
646
370 390330
404
165 1768 67
110
627
94119
16
Turkey KSA UAE Iran Egypt
GDP, Current Prices External Debt International Reserves
Industry, 12%
Construction, 5%
Social & private
services, 14%
Hotel and Restaurant Business,
13%Agriculture,
13%Utilities, 5%
Financial services, 3%
Transportation &
communication, 10%
Real estate and
professional services, 15%
Oil & gas, 12%
Other mining, 1%
DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND: LARGE, EDUCATED, COST COMPETITIVE POPULATION
9
Source: IMF, WEO Oct. 2015, Central Intelligence Agency, World fact book, Est 2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Russia US Iran Japan S. Korea
Tho
usa
nd
s
Source: World Economic Forum/UNESCO. Rank our of 124 countries excludes China, India.
Country $USD/month
Australia 1810
USA 1257
Saudi Arabia 800
Korea 1124
Turkey 839
Brazil 386
Russian Federation 274
Iran 247
Iran’s minimum wage - 2015
80 million population growing at 1.24%
3rd highest no. of engineering graduates - 2015
0ver $17k GDP per capita (PPP)
70% of all engineering and science students are female
26.0
15.617.3
14.3
6.2
20.4
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
Russia Brazil Iran China India Turkey
Tho
usa
nd
s
Source: IMF, 2015
71% Between
15-64
2.3%
1.9%
2.3%2.2%
1.1%
-0.3%
0.2%
0.7%
1.2%
1.7%
2.2%
2.7%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Egypt Iran KSA Turkey UAE
Mill
ion
s
above 64 15-64 0-14 Urbanization rate
91 79 31 78 9
Source: OECD
SOME OF THE MULTINATIONALS CONSUMER BRANDS CURRENTLY PRESENT IN IRAN
10
LOW HANGING FRUIT- GROWING FROM A LOW BASE
11
ECONOMY GROWING FAST OFF A VERY LOW BASE
12
Source: IMF, World bank
Source: IMF
GDP composition growth: 2016 v H1 2017
Real GDP growth accelerating
GDP growth constant prices (2016)
Diversified economy (Oil only ~12% of the GDP)
Source: CBI
Industry, 12%
Construction, 5%
Social & private
services, 14%
Hotel and Restaurant Business,
13%
Agriculture, 13%
Utilities, 5%
Financial services, 3%
Transportation &
communication, 10%
Real estate and
professional services, 15%
Oil & gas, 12%
Other mining, 1%
Source: SCI
3%
29%
-6%
4%
18%
-14%
1%
7%2%
15%
4%9% 10%
5%
12% 11%
2016 2017 H1
0.3% 0.3%
6%
3%
-8%
-0.3%
3%
-2%
13%
4% 4%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
13%
6% 6%5% 4%
3% 3% 3% 2%1%
-2%-2%
EARNINGS- ‘THE ONLY WAY IS UP’
13
Industry-level earnings growth Corporate earnings bottomed and now growing
Source: Codal.ir
The earnings upgrade cycle has just started
• All figures are based on a sample of 338 listed companies
2016/2015(hist.) 2017/2016(hist.) 2018/2017(e.)
EPS Growth -28.8% 23.2% 11.3%
114
30
194177
29
132
187
30
121
Upgrades unchanged Downgrades
# o
f co
mp
anie
s
2016/2015(hist.) 2017/2016(hist.) 2018/2017(e.)
2017/2016(hist.) 2018/2017(e.) EPS CAGR 2yr(e.)
Base metals 2434.2% 88.6% 591.3%
Motor vehicles 813.2% -48.7% 116.4%
Refineries 140.8% -7.2% 49.5%
Metal products -11.4% 123.4% 40.7%
Metallic ore 55.4% 21.5% 37.4%
Leasing 22.1% 27.6% 24.8%
Investment companies 13.1% 24.9% 18.9%
IT & computers 22.9% 10.7% 16.6%
Telecommunication 13.1% 8.8% 10.9%
Communication )Other( 17.9% 4.4% 10.9%
Rubber & tyre 73.8% -33.5% 7.5%
Utility 5.6% 8.5% 7.0%
Insurance companies -11.6% 28.9% 6.8%
Pharmaceuticals 10.5% -2.3% 3.9%
Chemicals -9.8% 6.5% -2.0%
Foods excl. sugar -11.0% 3.1% -4.2%
Cements, limes & plasters
-44.9% 60.2% -6.0%
Transportation & storage
-10.0% -5.5% -7.7%
Engineering -7.7% -15.7% -11.8%
Banking -44.1% 34.1% -13.4%
Conglomerates -9.6% -23.9% -17.0%
GROWTH DRIVERS AND THE UPSIDE
14
MARKET GROWTH DRIVERS
15
Source: World bank*Estimate from Ministry of Economy and Finance
Source: European Union, Eurostat
FDI started & foreign portfolio inflow to follow
Real interest rates falling Iran-EU trade doubles
Source: CBI, TSE
2.3 2.0 2.03.0
3.64.3 4.7
3.02.1 2.1
11.8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
USD
bn
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1
EUR
bn
Exports Imports
China trade resumes growth
30.3
27.5
14.8
14.8 24.316.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17E
USD
bn
Export Import
7.2
8.8
6.5
9.2
2016-H1 2017-H1
25.7%27.0%
25.5%24.0% 24.0% 23.8% 23.3%
22.1%
18.5%16.6%
8.6% 8.7% 9.0% 9.4% 9.8% 10.2% 10.3% 10.0% 9.9% 9.8%
17.2%18.3%
16.5%14.6% 14.2% 13.7% 12.9% 12.1%
8.6%
6.8%
Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17
Average T-bill YTM Inflation Real interest rate
VALUATION DISCOUNT IS TOO LARGE: BASE CASE OF ~30% CAGR FOR NEXT FIVE YEARS
16Proprietary and Confidential
Source: MSCI, TSE, Bloomberg
TEDPIX P/E ratio- historical range
Lowest PE ratio & highest dividend yield
PE ratio(hist.) Dividend Yield
Expected returns scenario 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
EPS Growth 10% 13% 16% 18% 20%
Dividend yield 8.3% 6.9% 5.7% 4.7% 4.5%
P/E ratio 7.2x 8.0x 8.7x 9.5x 10.0x
Total (local) Return 36% 36% 35% 36% 32%
USD/IRR depreciation 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
USD Return 28% 28% 27% 29% 25%
5 yr. expected CAGR 27% - the ‘double kicker’
Country Start date Year 1 Year 3 Year 5
Turkey (XU 100) Mar 13, 2001 25% 32% 39%
Russia (RTS) Sep 04, 1995 85% -14% 19%
Vietnam (VN index) Jun 30, 2000 316% 13% 19%
Prague (IPX) Sep 07, 1993 116% 20% 10%
Pakistan (KSE 100 ) Dec 18, 1992 62% 6% 7%
Shanghai (SHSEC) May 08, 1992 165% 7% 25%
New markets tend to perform well – CAGR guidance
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
Jan
-10
Ap
r-10
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-11
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-12
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-13
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-14
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-16
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
6.5
19.4
15.8 15.5
2016
10.6%
2.4% 2.4% 2.2%
2016
Iran
World Avg.
EM Avg.
FM Avg.
THE GIF FUND SP
17
SERVICE PROVIDERS, STRUCTURE AND TERMS
18
Lawyers & sanctions: Herbert Smith Freehills LLPCayman Legal Counsel: Walkers LLPAuditor: Grant Thornton (Cayman)Administrator: Circle Partners (Netherlands)Bank paying agent: Reyl & Cie GeneveCustodian: Central Securities Depositary of Iran (CSDI)
The Fund: GIF Fund SP - a Cayman open ended Fund (SPC)The Investment Manager: Griffon Asset Management (Cayman)Sub Advisor: Modababran Homa, fully licensed asset management firm, regulated by
the Securities Exchange Organization of Iran (SEO)ISIN KYG3864W1015Denomination: EuroShare Class: Class A
Management Fee: 2%Performance Fee: 20%Minimum Subscription: Eur100,000Lock up: 6 monthsHurdle: 5%HWM: YesLiquidity Subscriptions: MonthlyLiquidity Redemptions: Monthly (90 day notice)
STOCK MARKET - RECENT PERFORMANCE
TEDPIX
Farabourse
800
840
880
920
960
1000
1040
1080
Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17
75000
78000
81000
84000
87000
90000
93000
96000
Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17
89,501
61,164
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
•Govt increase in feed stock and raw material prices
•Contractionary monetary policy
•Concerns about negotiations• Period of consolidation post JCPOA led sentiment & liquidity rally
•High real interest rates
•Banking sector challenges
•Slower than anticipated engagement of large international banks with Iran
TEDPIX – THE MAIN INDEX - BREAKS ABOVE ITS ALL-TIME HIGH
20
-32%
JCPOA Implementation Day
• Real interest rates fall significantly
•Higher commodity prices & export led growth
•Strong corporate earnings 208%
•Significant increase in liquidity
•Undervalued privatizations
•Devaluation of the currency and weight of exporters in the index
95,601
21
COMPARATIVE GROSS PERFORMANCE (GAV)
850
950
1,050
1,150
1,250
1,350
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17
GIF RIAL GIF USD GIF EURO TEDPIX RIAL (rebased)
STRESS TESTING AND RISKS
22
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Inflation, average consumer prices GDP growth Oil revenue
STRESS TESTED: RESILIENT ECONOMY DESPITE WAR AND SANCTIONS
23
1979 U.S. bans Iranian imports
1995 U.S. bans energy investment, trading in Iran. Sanctions foreign firms investing in Iranian energy sector
2006 U.N. freezes assets of those linked with nuclear program
Mar 07 U.N. imposes arms, financial sanctions, extends asset freeze Oct 07 U.S. sanctions Banks Melli, Bank Mellatand Bank Saderat
Mar 08 U.N. imposes travel and financial curbs, trade ban
Jan 11 U.S. announces new unilateral sanction on IranNov 11 Wester states step up sanctions on Iran in response to a report suggesting it had worked on designing an atomic bomb
Jan 14 JPOA outline agreed between Iran 5+1. Iran EU lifts sanctions on petrochemicals, Auto and gold. Iran receives $700 million every month from blocked oil sales proceeds.
80 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
War
US Sanctions
UN Sanctions
EU Sanctions
1980 – 1988 almost 200,000 killed or MIA
Estimated economic loss of US$550 - 650 billion
Oil Production level dropped from 7 million bpd to almost 1 million bpd as fields were targeted by Iraq.
(%) (%) (bn USD)
16
Jan 16 JCPOA Implementation day on January 2016
CURRENCY- LOWER INFLATION & MORE CURRENCY STABILITY
24
• The average annual depreciation of the Iranian rial versus the US dollar, over the last 3 years, has been ~ 6.5%/year.
• Current US/IR CPI differential is around 7-8%. With increase in oil and export revenues since the Nuclear deal was struck, the
risk of devaluation has significantly diminished. Nevertheless, despite the recent stability its prudent to consider a gradual
depreciation in line with the CPI differential.
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Q3
FX change (free market rate) Inflation differential (Iran & US)
WHAT ABOUT SANCTIONS?
25
• Vast majority of sanctions removed (EU, UN & US secondary)
• Risk is now to a large extent eliminated, especially for non-US persons
• US persons for the most part fall outside the scope of the JCPOA
• A number of sanctions remain (namely nuclear and human rights related)
• According to IAEA Iran is in compliance with the agreement (JCPOA). Certain steps taken by Iran to comply are irreversible. In the unlikely event that sanctions return, the flow of funds will become restricted as many of the banks that currently deal with Iran will likely halt/reduce their operations.
• The agreement is between Iran and 5+1 meaning Germany, UK, Russia, France, US and China. A series of none compliance reports/warnings and voting would need to take place for sanctions to return. It will not be an overnight event and there will be ample opportunity to unwind liquid positions.
• As for PE and VC its important to note that even during sanctions many large foreign owned multinationals continued to operate in Iran in the consumer sector. Sectors related to food and medicine were never targeted by sanctions.
DISCLAIMER
26
“IMPORTANT: This presentation (the “Presentation”) has been prepared by Griffon Capital exclusively for the benefit of the recipient to whom it isaddressed, which shall in particular not include any US or any other persons subject to the remaining sanctions laws or authorities (the “Recipient”).The Recipient (i) is not permitted to reproduce in whole or in part the information provided in this Presentation (the “Information”) or tocommunicate the Information to any third party without Griffon Capital’s prior written consent; and (ii) is to keep permanently confidential allInformation that is not already public.
This Presentation (i) is for discussion purposes only; (ii) is not intended as an invitation, offer or solicitation for making an investment in anyjurisdiction; and (ii) speaks only as of the date it is given, reflecting prevailing market conditions. The views expressed are subject to change basedupon a number of factors, including market conditions. Neither the delivery of this Presentation at any time nor any future investments shall underany circumstances create an implication that the Information is correct as of any time after such date.
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The Presentation is not exhaustive and does not serve as legal, business, accounting, tax or any other advice, and it may not be relied upon by theRecipient in evaluating the merits of investing in the suggested jurisdictions. Nothing herein shall be taken as constituting the giving of investmentadvice and this Presentation is not intended to provide, and must not be taken as, the basis of any decision and should not be considered as arecommendation by Griffon Capital. The Recipient must make its own independent assessment and such investigations as it deems necessary suchas consulting business, legal and tax advisors. Only these business, legal and tax advisors will be able to appropriately take into account thecircumstances relevant to the legal implications and/or tax treatment of each investor. It is the responsibility of the investors to satisfy themselvesthat any investments made will not expose them to liability under the laws of any state to which they are or may become subject.
Under no circumstances is Griffon Capital or any of its Representatives acting or deemed to be acting as the agent representative or fiduciary of theRecipient.
Griffon Capital, together with a group of international legal sanctions experts, have integrated a robust compliance procedure to adhere to theremaining US and EU sanctions against Iran, and related international regulations.
The Recipient of this Presentation, acknowledges and agrees that neither Griffon Capital nor its Representatives shall have (a) any duty to provideaccess to any additional information or to update or correct any information or (b) any liability to the Recipient or its Representative resulting fromthe use of such Information.
DECEMBER 2017
101, No 38, Golfam Alley, Africa Blvd, Tehran, IranTel: +98 21 26231278 www.griffoncapital.com
ASSET MANAGEMENT AND PRIVATE EQUITY