ipsos mori political monitor · 2020. 12. 14. · © ipsos | ipsos mori political monitor |...


VOTINGINTENTION

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 20203

Voting Intention:December 2020

All giving a voting intentionHeadline voting intention

Conservative lead = +2Conservative lead = -0

41%

41%

6%

5%

7%

Conservative

Labour

Lib Dems

Green

Other

41%

39%

6%

6%

6%

Conservative

Labour

Lib Dem

Green

Other

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 758 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 739. Margin of error is

displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance

that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind

when calculating party lead figures.

How do you intend to vote in the General Election? Will you vote…?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ma

y 1

5

Jul 15

Sep 1

5

No

v 1

5

Jan 1

6

Ma

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Jul 16

Sep 1

6

No

v 1

6

Jan 1

7

Ma

r 17

Ma

y 1

7

Jul 17

Sep 1

7

No

v 1

7

Jan 1

8

Ma

r 18

Ma

y 1

8

Jul 18

Sep 1

8

No

v 1

8

Jan 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jul 19

Sep 1

9

No

v 1

9

Jan 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ma

y 2

0

Jul 20

Sep 2

0

No

v 2

0

Corbyn elected

(Sept 15)

May as PM

(July 16)

Starmer elected

(Apr 20)

Headline voting intention:Since the 2015 General Election

4

41%Conservative

%

December

2020

Johnson as PM

(July 19)

Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General

Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

41%Labour

General Election

How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?

Dec 2

0


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

04

Ap

r 04

Jul 04

Oct

04

Jan

05

Ap

r 05

Jul 05

Oct

05

Jan

06

Ap

r 06

Jul 06

Oct

06

Jan

07

Ap

r 07

Jul 07

Oct

07

Jan

08

Ap

r 08

Jul 08

Oct

08

Jan

09

Ap

r 09

Jul 09

Oct

09

Jan

10

Ap

r 10

Jul 10

Oct

10

Jan

11

Ap

r 11

Jul 11

Oct

11

Jan

12

Ap

r 12

Jul 12

Oct

12

Jan

13

Ap

r 13

Jul 13

Oct

13

Jan

14

Ap

r 14

Jul 14

Oct

14

Jan

15

Ap

r 15

Jul 15

Oct

15

Jan

16

Ap

r 16

Jul 16

Oct

16

Jan

17

Ap

r 17

Jul 17

Oct

17

Jan

18

Ap

r 18

Jul 18

Oct

18

Jan

19

Ap

r 19

Jul 19

Oct

19

Jan

20

Ap

r 20

Jul 20

Oct

20

Miliband elected

(Sept 10)

Corbyn elected

(Sept 15)May as PM

(July 16)Johnson as PM

(July 19)

Cameron elected

(Dec 05)

Brown as PM

(June 07)

Starmer elected

(Apr 20)

Headline voting intention:January ‘04 – December ‘20

%

Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General

Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019


December

2020

41% Conservative

41% Labour

6% Lib Dem

The Brexit Party

5% Green

UKIP

General Election

5

How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?


SATISFACTIONWITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS


Boris Johnson Keir Starmer The Government

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: December 2020

7

33%

29%

38%

Dissatisfied

Don’t know

Satisfied

+7.5% swing from October 2020

Net= +5

50%

8%

42%

Net= -16Net= -8%

+9% swing from October 2020

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country / doing his job

as Prime Minister /Leader of the Labour Party?

53%

10%

37%

-5% swing from October 2020


Boris Johnson: Satisfaction

Net = -8

December 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jul-1

9

Sep-1

9

Oct-

19

De

c-1

9

Jan-1

9

Feb

-19

Ma

r-2

0

Apr-

20

Ma

y-2

0

Jun-2

0

Jul-2

0

Aug-2

0

Sep-2

0

Oct-

20

No

v-2

0

De

c-2

0

42%Satisfied

8%Don’t know

50%Dissatisfied

July 2019 –December 2020

42%Satisfied

50%Dissatisfied


8

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

42%

8%

50%

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020


Boris Johnson: Satisfaction among Conservative supporters

December 2020

78%Satisfied

4%Don’t know

17%Dissatisfied


9

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jul-1

9

Sep-1

9

Oct-

19

De

c-1

9

Jan-2

0

Feb

-20

Ma

r-2

0

Apr-

20

Ma

y-2

0

Jun-2

0

Jul-2

0

Aug-2

0

Sep-2

0

Oct-

20

No

v-2

0

De

c-2

0

78%Satisfied

17%Dissatisfied

78%

4%

17%

Net = +61

July 2019 – December 2020

Base: 324 Conservative party supporters aged 18+, 4-10 December 2020


Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2020)

10

Number of months after becoming prime minister

Ne

t sa

tisfa

ctio

n

Johnson

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

Blair

Major

Cameron

Johnson

Brown

Thatcher

May


How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as prime minister?


Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2020)

11

Blair’s gov

Major’s gov

Cameron’s gov

Johnson’s gov

Brown’s gov

Thatcher’s gov

May’s gov Ne

t sa

tisfa

ctio

n

Johnson’s Gov

Number of months after assuming government


Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country?


Keir Starmer: Satisfaction

Net = +5

December 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jun-2

0

Jul-2

0

Aug-2

0

Sep-2

0

Oct-

20

No

v-2

0

De

c-2

0

38%Satisfied

29%Don’t know

33%Dissatisfied

June – December 2020

38%Satisfied

33%Dissatisfied


12

38%

29%

33%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour

Party?



Starmer

Corbyn

Blair

Smith

Kinnock

Miliband

Foot

Cameron

Duncan-smith

Hague

Howard

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2020)

Ne

t sa

tisfa

ctio

n

Number of months after becoming opposition leader


Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

13

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

Starmer


Net = +31

December 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jun-2

0

Jul-2

0

Aug-2

0

Sep-2

0

Oct-

20

No

v-2

0

De

c-2

0

56%Satisfied

19%Don’t know

25%Dissatisfied

June 2020 – December 2020

56%Satisfied

25%Dissatisfied


14

56%

19%

25%

Keir Starmer: Satisfaction amongst Labour supportersAre you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour

Party?

Base: 350 Labour party supporters aged 18+, 4-10 December 2020


Keir Starmer: Net satisfaction

Base: c.1000 British adults each month.Source: Ipsos MORI

% Net satisfied

Among

Conservative

voters

Among all

Among

Labour

voters

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as

leader of the Labour Party?

14%9%

-1%-5%

-12%

66%

51%56%

50%

31%31%

22%16% 15%

5%

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20


Ed Davey: Satisfaction

Net = -14

December 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep-2

0

Oct-

20

No

v-2

0

De

c-2

0

15%Satisfied

57%Don’t know

29%Dissatisfied

September –December 2020

15%Satisfied

29%Dissatisfied


16

15%

57%

29%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Davey is doing his job as leader of the Liberal

Democrats?



ECONOMICOPTIMISM


Economic Optimism Index

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Dec-0

7

Ap

r-08

Au

g-0

8

Dec-0

8

Ap

r-09

Au

g-0

9

Dec-0

9

Ap

r-10

Se

p-1

0

Jan

-11

Ma

y-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Jan

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Fe

b-1

6

Jun

-16

Oct-

16

Fe

b-1

7

Jul-

17

Jan

-18

Jun

-18

Dec-1

8

Jun

-19

Dec-1

9

Ap

r-20

Au

g-2

0

Dec-2

0EOI = -36

Decenber 2020January 2007– December 2020

27%Improve

7%Stay the same


63%Get worse

63%7%

27%

4%

63%Get worse

7%Stay the

same

27%Improve

4%Don’t know

18

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get

worse over the next 12 months?



Economic Optimism Index(1998-2020)

19

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan 1

99

8

Oct 19

98

Jul 199

9

Apr

20

00

Jan 2

00

1

Oct 20

01

Jul 200

2

Apr

20

03

Jan 2

00

4

Oct 20

04

Jul 200

5

Apr

20

06

Jan 2

00

7

Oct 20

07

Jul 200

8

Apr

20

09

Jan 2

01

0

Oct 20

10

Jul 201

1

Apr

20

12

Jan 2

01

3

Oct 20

13

Jul 201

4

Apr

20

15

Jan 2

01

6

Oct 20

16

Jul 201

7

Apr

20

18

Jan 2

01

9

Oct 20

19

Jul 202

0

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Net optimism

-36%

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get

worse over the next 12 months?

Dec 2

020


LABOUR LEADERSHIP CONTEST

THE CORONAVIRUS


Handling of the Coronavirus outbreak

31%

37%

37%

23%

46%

47%Overall, how well or badly

do you think each of the

following have handled

the coronavirus outbreak

so far? If you do not know

who the person is, please

say so.

21

Boris Johnson

The Government

Very/fairly well Net

well

Very/fairly badly

-10

Keir Starmer, Leader of the Labour party

-9

+8

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4 – 10 December 2020



22

The Government’s handling of the Coronavirus outbreak

Overall, how well or badly do you think the Government has handled the

coronavirus outbreak so far?

Very/fairly well

Very/fairly badly49%

40%

42%

32%30%

37%35%

44%

40%

50% 50%47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month

March – December 2020


+17

+11+8+9

+30

-24

-9

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

% Net handling the Coronavirus outbreak well

December 2020

Handling of the Coronavirus outbreak: March – Dec 2020

Overall, how well or badly do you think each of the following have handled the

coronavirus outbreak so far? If you do not know who the person is, please say so.

Boris Johnson

Keir Starmer


GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE


Government performance since re-election


25

Taking everything into account, since Boris Johnson’s government was re-elected in December 2019,

do you think the government has performed...?

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4 – 10 December 2020, 2019 Conservative voters (351), 2019 Labour voters (296)

6%

25%

15%

38%

54%

48%

54%

20%

34%

2%

1%

3%

2019 Conservative voters

Better than expected Worse than you expected

Among all

About the same as expected Don’t know

2019 Labour voters


The Government’s performance since re-electionSince Boris Johnson’s government was re-elected in December 2019, do you think the government

has done a good or bad job at…?

80%

44%

41%

37%

33%

28%

24%

23%

21%

13%

43%

46%

44%

49%

63%

70%

50%

58%

Ensuring the UK has a coronavirus vaccine

Managing the economy

Keeping unemployment down

Handling taxation and expenditure

Maximising Britain’s influence in the world

Handling Britain's exit from the European Union

Developing a test and trace system

Delivering for the north of England

Reducing inequalities between different regions, also known as “levelling-up”

Good job Bad job

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020,



27

The Government’s handling of managing the economy

Since Boris Johnson’s government was re-elected in December 2019, do you think

the government has done a good or bad job at…? Managing the economy

Good job

Bad job36%

47%

56%

42%

51%

40%

44%

55%

46%

37%

47%

30%

41%

43%

69%

59%

69%

52%

71%

61% 59%

37%

24%

29%24%

32%

16%

28%32%

59%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0


April 1998 – December 2020

Conservative governmentLabour government



28

The Government’s handling of taxation and public expenditure

Since Boris Johnson’s government was re-elected in December 2019, do you think the

government has done a good or bad job at…? handling taxation and public expenditure

Good job

Bad job

32%35% 37%

32%37%

60%56% 54%

47%44%

43%36%

52%

43%

31%

59%

33%

44%

36%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0






29

The Government’s handling of the taxation and public expenditure


government has done a good or bad job at…? Handling taxation and public expenditure

Good job

Bad job

32%35% 37%

32%37%

60%56% 54%

47%44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2011

2011

2012

2012

2013

2013

2014

2014

2015

2015

2016

2016

2017

2017

2018

2018

2019

2019

2020


October 2011 – December 2020



30

The Government’s handling of keeping unemployment down


government has done a good or bad job at…? Keeping unemployment down

Good job

Bad job

15%

44%

49%

41%

77%

48%

43%

46%

55%

43%

61%65%

61%

23%

36%

24%21%

30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0






31

The Government’s handling of Britain’s exit from the European UnionSince Boris Johnson’s government was re-elected in December 2019, do you think the

government has done a good or bad job at…? Handling Britain’s exit from the European Union

Good job

Bad job

37%33%36%31%

38%

9%

18%

28%

48%

53% 52%58%

54%

85%

76%

63%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


November 2016 – December 2020


The Government’s handling of “levelling-up”

Since Boris Johnson’s

government was re-elected

in December 2019, do you

think the government has

done a good or bad job

at…? Reducing

inequalities between

different regions of the

country, also known as

“levelling-up”

22%

26%

22%

16%

21%

49%

54%

59%

59%

58%

London

South

Midlands

North

Among all

Good job Bad job

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020, those in the North (225), Midlands (331), South (212), London (150)


The Government’s handling of delivering for the north of England

Since Boris Johnson’s

government was re-elected

in December 2019, do you

think the government has

done a good or bad job

at…? Delivering for the

north of England

24%

21%

26%

23%

23%

43%

44%

44%

66%

50%

London

South

Midlands

North

Among all

Good job Bad job

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020, those in the North (225), Midlands (331), South (212), London (150)

Gideon Skinner

Research Director

[email protected]

Keiran Pedley

Research Director

[email protected]

Cameron Garrett

Senior Research Executive

[email protected]

Ipsos MORIDecember 2020 Political Monitor

For more information

Dylan Spielman

Research Executive

[email protected]

ipsos mori political monitor · 2020. 12. 14. · © ipsos | ipsos mori political monitor |...

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