iowa’s climate 2030
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Iowa’s Climate 2030. Eugene S. Takle Director, Climate Science Program Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 [email protected]. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Iowa’s Climate 2030
Eugene S. TakleDirector, Climate Science ProgramProfessor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric SciencesProfessor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of AgronomyIowa State University
Ames, Iowa [email protected]
Municipal Utilities 2030Ankeny, Iowa 8 April 2010
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“I hear so many conflicting views on
climate change, I don’t know what or
who to believe”Soybean producer from NE Iowa
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In science, the prevailing theory is the one that explains the balance of evidence
What is the evidence?
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
Global Mean Surface Temperature
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
Global Mean Surface Temperature
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
Global Mean Surface Temperature
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http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
NASA
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Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
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Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
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Temperature Trends in Upper and Lower Atmosphere
Upper Atmosphere
(Stratosphere)
Lower Atmosphere
(Troposphere)
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“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
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Arctic Sea-Ice Decline
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Decline in Greenland Ice Mass
Equivalent to about 5 ft of ice over the state of Iowa each year
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Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
Sea-surface temperature
V V
Tropical Atlantic OceanHurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
V
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Ocean Heat Content
1oC rise in top 3 m of global ocean is equivalent to a 1oC rise in entire atmosphere
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Where is this extra heat coming from?Possible mechanisms:• More solar radiation• Less reflection from clouds• Less reflection from Earth’s
surface• More energy trapped and recycled by ozone and greenhouse gases
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Earth’s Energy Balance:
Incoming solar = outgoing infrared radiation
But rapid changes in atmosphere and ocean temperatures and loss of land and sea ice indicate an imbalance
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Earth’s Energy Balance:
Incoming solar = outgoing infrared radiation
But rapid changes in atmosphere and ocean temperatures and loss of land and sea ice indicate an imbalance
?
?
? ?
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*Other solar cycles have periods of 22,000, 41,000, and 100,000 years with 0.1% variation.
0.1%
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Forcing Factors in the Global Climate
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
More trapped (recycled) heat
More cloud & land reflection
See Arritt for details this afternoon
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Increased Greenhouse Increased Greenhouse Gases => Global HeatingGases => Global Heating
Increasing Increasing greenhouse gases greenhouse gases increases heating increases heating of the Earthof the Earth
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Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009.
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Global Carbon Emissions (Gt)
Actual emissions are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 1990
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Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Warming of the Lower and Upper Atmosphere Produced by Natural and Human Causes
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Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Warming of the Lower and Upper Atmosphere Produced by Natural and Human Causes
Note that greenhouse gases have a unique temperature signature, with strong warming in the upper troposphere, cooling in the lower stratosphere and strong warming over the North Pole. No other warming factors have this signature.
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
Global Mean Surface Temperature
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Attribution studies: See Anderson this afternoon for applications to the Midwest
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Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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The balance of evidence for the magnitude and distribution of warming is explained by increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases
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The “Cone of Uncertainty”
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Balanced fuel sourcesEnergy intensive
More environmentally friendly
If current emission trends continue, global temperature rise will exceed worst case scenarios projected in 2007
FI =fossil intensive
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IPCC 2007
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December-January-February Temperature Change
A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus1980-1999
7.2oF
6.3oF
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IPCC 2007
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June-July-August Temperature Change
A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus1980-1999
4.5oF
5.4oF
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June-July-August Temperature Change
A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus1980-1999
4.5oF
5.4oF
Not the direction of current trends
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IPCC 2007
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IPCC 2007
Low confidence in model projection of summer precipitation
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IPCC 2007
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Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
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Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
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Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Low confidence
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Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Trend of increase in occurrence of heavy precipitation over the 20th C is consistent with increasing GHG concentrations.
Frequency of intense precipitation events is likely to increase in the future.
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Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
MitigationPossible
AdaptationNecessary
AdaptationNecessary
The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
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Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
AdaptationNecessary
AdaptationNecessary
MitigationPossible
The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
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Adapted from Folland et al. [2001]
Observed Summer (JJA) Daily Maximum Temperature Changes (K), 1976-2000
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Des Moines Airport Data
1983: 13
1988: 10
2009: 0
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Des Moines Airport Data
1983: 13
1988: 10
2009: 0
6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years
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State-Wide Average Data
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State-Wide Average Data
Totals above 40”
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Cedar Rapids Data
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Cedar Rapids Data
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D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
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State-Wide Average Data
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Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Temperature
*Estimated from IPCC reports
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*Estimated from IPCC reports
Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Precipitation
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Iowa Agricultural Producers’ Adaptations to Climate Change
Longer growing season: plant earlier, plant longer season hybrids, harvest later
Wetter springs: larger machinery enables planting in smaller weather windows
More summer precipitation: higher planting densities for higher yields
Wetter springs and summers: more subsurface drainage tile is being installed, closer spacing, sloped surfaces
Fewer extreme heat events: higher planting densities, fewer pollination failures
Higher humidity: more spraying for pathogens favored by moist conditions. more problems with fall crop dry-down, wider bean heads for faster harvest due to shorter harvest period during the daytime.
Drier autumns: delay harvest to take advantage of natural dry-down conditions
HIGHER YIELDS!!Is it genetics or climate? Likely
some of each.
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Wind Power: A New Energy
Opportunity for Iowa
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54-hour Forecasts Initialized at 00UTC (6 PM CST)
Different turbulence schemes
Observations at Pomeroy, IA
Global model initialization
Midnight Noon Midnight MidnightNoon
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Conceptual Model of Turbine-crop Interaction via Mean Wind and Turbulence
Fields
__ ___________________________________
Speed recovery
CO2H2O
Heat
day
night
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Summary There is no scientifically defensible explanation for
atmospheric warming, increase in ocean heat content, and loss of ocean and land ice over the last 40 year other than increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gases
Some recent climate trends in the Midwest that have been favorable to agriculture likely will continue in the next few years
Climate challenges to agriculture will intensify toward mid-century
Iowa’s wind energy resources offer an alternative for contributing to the nation’s energy needs while reducing emissions of greenhouse gases
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For More Information National academies of science joint statement (May 2009):
G8+5 Academies’ joint statement: Climate change and the transformation of energy technologies for a low carbon future. [http://www.nationalacademies.org/includes/G8+5energy-climate09.pdf]
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website: http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/
Contact me directly: [email protected]