investor perspective: why the capital markets will …slides] why the...investor perspective: why...
TRANSCRIPT
©2015 Gainsight. All Rights Reserved.
Investor Perspective: Why the Capital Markets Will
Reward Customer Success in 2016
©2015 Gainsight. All Rights Reserved.
Moderator and Panelists
TODD GARDNER SaaS Capital
TOMASZ TUNGUZ Redpoint Ventures
DAVID SPITZ Pacific Crest Securities
GREG GOLDFARB Summit Partners
DANIELLE MORRILL CEO, Mattermark
Moderator
Panelists
©2015 Gainsight. All Rights Reserved.
Selected SaaS Valuations, Growth and FCF Profiles – Jan ‘15
Market data as of 1/1/15; data for companies with 2015 IPOs as of first day of published research estimates
Expected Time to Break-Even / Profitability
Already FCF Positive
~FCF Break-Even
1-3 Quarters Out
3-6 Quarter Out
>6 Quarters Out
©2015 Gainsight. All Rights Reserved.
Selected SaaS Valuations, Growth and FCF Profiles – Today
Market data as of 4/29/16
Expected Time to Break-Even / Profitability
Already FCF Positive
~FCF Break-Even
1-3 Quarters Out
3-6 Quarter Out
>6 Quarters Out
©2015 Gainsight. All Rights Reserved.
Sensitivity of Valuation to Cost of Capital Conditions
Alpha Company - Starts at $10M revenue - Grows 75% annually for 7 years, 3% forever after - Burns cash until Year 7, starting at 60% net cash flow burn
Bravo Company - Starts at $10M revenue - Grows 35% annually for 7 years, 3% forever after - Generates 20% free cash flow margins that rise to 24% at Year 7
-‐100%
-‐80%
-‐60%
-‐40%
-‐20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-‐200 -‐100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Change in Valuation Based on Changes in Discount Rate
Alpha Bravo
Change in Discount Rate (basis points)
©2015 Gainsight. All Rights Reserved.
Churn’s Impact on Revenue Over Time
After 5 years, revenue is 40% greater
Growth Rate is 50% higher
Addressable Market is actually “much” bigger
www.saas-capital.com
©2015 Gainsight. All Rights Reserved.
KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC (“KBCMI”), and KeyBank NaLonal AssociaLon (“KeyBank N.A.”), are marketed. Pacific Crest SecuriLes is a division of KBCMI. This document has been prepared by Pacific Crest SecuriLes, a division of KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., herein known as “PCS”. The material contained herein is based on data from sources considered to be reliable, however PCS does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the informaLon. This document is for informaLonal purposes only. Neither the informaLon nor any opinion expressed consLtutes an offer, or the solicitaLon of an offer, to buy or sell any security. This document may contain forward-‐looking statements, which involve risk and uncertainty. Actual results may differ significantly from the forward-‐looking statements. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objecLves, financial situaLon and the specific needs of any person or enLty. Individuals associated with PCS or PCS itself may have a posiLon (long or short) in the securiLes covered in this document and may make purchases and/or sales of those securiLes in the open market or otherwise without noLce. The firm does not, and is unable to, make promises about research coverage. Research will be iniLated, updated and ceased solely at the discreLon of PCS Research Management. This communicaLon is intended solely for the use by the recipient. The recipient agrees not to forward or copy the informaLon to any other person outside their organizaLon without the express wriTen consent of PCS.
Pacific Crest Securities – Disclosures