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1 September 2011 Nomura Financials Conference Jan Erik Back Chief Financial Officer SEB

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Page 1: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

1 September 2011

Nomura Financials Conference

Jan Erik Back Chief Financial Officer SEB

Page 2: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

2 2 2

● SEB’s home markets relatively less affected

● SEB retains resilience and flexibility

● Strategic priorities remain

Page 3: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

3

European sovereigns SEB’s home markets enjoy strong sovereign finances

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

GreeceItaly

BelgiumIreland

PortugalGermany

FranceUK

HungaryAustria

MaltaNetherland

CyprusSpain

PolandFinlandNorway

LatviaDenmarkSweden

LithuaniaSlovenia

LuxemburgEstonia

Sovereign debt, % of GDP

-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2

IrelandGreece

UKSpain

PortugalPolandLatvia

LithuaniaFrance

SloveniaNetherlands

CyprusAustria

ItalyHungaryBelgium

MaltaGermanyDenmark

FinlandLuxemburg

SwedenEstonia Norway

Deficit, % of GDP

Page 4: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

4

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

In May 2011In Aug 2011

GDP growth forecast SEB's home markets and Eurozone, in per cent

Forecast for 2012 Forecast for 2011 Forecast for 2013

Source: Nordic Outlook August 30 2011

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Sweden

Norway

Denmark

Finland

Germany

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Eurozone

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Page 5: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

5 5 Source: SEB's Chief Financial Officers‘ confidence survey, addressed to about 100 of the largest companies in Sweden (Aug 2011)

Economic sentiment relatively firm

354045505560657075

Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11

SEB's Financial Officers Survey 2007-2011 “Business Climate”

Swedish corporate lending growth vs. economic sentiment

Source: Datastream, SEB Enskilda

-10-505

101520

Mar-03

Sep-03

Mar-04

Sep-04

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

758595105115

Corporate lending growth, y-o-y % - lagged by 12 months (LHS) Economic sentiment (RHS)

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6

Swedish banks less affected CDS spreads, bps

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

EU banks Danske Bank DnBNOR Handelsbanken Nordea Swedbank SEB

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7

Swedish TED-spreads still far below 2008 levels

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Graph shows spread between 3 month STIBOR and a 3 month Swedish treasury bill

Page 8: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

8

Lending still growing

Swedish lending growth (y-o-y) Nordic corporate lending growth (y-o-y)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Non-financial Companies and HouseholdsCorporate lending

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Sweden NorwayDenmark Finland

Source: Central banks, as of July 2011 Source: Statistic Sweden, as of July 2011

Page 9: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

9

Swedish house market cooling off

Mortgage lending growth (y-o-y) House price development (y-o-y)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Source: Valueguard HOX Index Source: Statistic Sweden, as of July 2011

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Houses Sweden Houses StockholmHouses Gothenburg Houses MalmoeFlats Sweden Flats StockholmFlats Gothenburg Flats Malmoe

Houses

Flats

Page 10: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

10

Conclusions On an absolute and relative

basis, SEB operates in a region which continues to show strong performance

The stress in the financial markets is markedly lower than in the rest of Europe

The uncertainty on the future impact is nevertheless high

10

Page 11: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

11 11 11

● SEB’s home markets relatively less affected

● SEB retains resilience and flexibility

● Strategic priorities remain

Page 12: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

12 12 12

Balance sheet stronger than ever

Highlights

Core Tier 1

Operating profit SEK 4.3bn

Operating profit

Continued progress of corporate expansion plan

Credit volume

13.5%

+91bn

Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11

Page 13: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

13

Q2 financial wrap-up Profit and loss development Q2-09 – Q2-11 (SEK bn)

Operating income Operating expenses Net credit losses Q2-11 Q2-11 Q2-11

Operating profit (SEK bn)

3.6

Highlights from results:

Divisional pre-provision profit Q2 vs. Q1 +7%

Group total income H1-11 vs. H1-10 +7%

Customer-driven NII Q2 vs. Q1 +7%

Negative result effects in Q2:

NII: SEK 50m German hedge QoQ, SEK 70m investment portfolio, SEK 100m funding & liquidity

NFI: SEK 200m portfolio valuations directly related to GIIPS exposures

4.3

Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11

9.55.9

0.6

Page 14: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

14

NII dynamics

Customer driven NII, SEK bn Funding and Other, SEK m

Customer driven NII shows positive trend while sale of German Retail materially impacted overall NII

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Q1 08

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11

Q2

Lending Deposits

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Q1 08

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11

Q2

Funding & other Sale GRB

Page 15: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

15

Geography based on SEB's operations NB: Jun ‘11 FX rates applied historically

+8% YoY

0% YoY

-2% YoY

Lending 336 330 343 362Cont. liab's 239 249 293 283Derivatives 28 36 25 22Total 603 615 661 667

Growth in corporate lending SEB Group, corporate credit portfolio (SEK bn)

+12% YoY

Changed dynamics

Committed facilities +22 per cent in 2010 Lending at a trough in the summer of 2010, now +10% YoY

456 461 505 515

91 103 107 101 57 51 49 51 603 615 661 667

Dec '09 Jun '10 Dec '10 Jun '11

Nordic & Other Germany Baltics

Page 16: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

16

0

5

10

15

Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11

Non Net Interest Income Net Interest Income

12.5

8.0 9.6

8.4

11.9 10.8

9.1 9.2 8.7 9.2

59% 59% 64% 54% 60% 49% 58% 52% 59% 53%

41% 41% 36% 46%

40% 51% 42%

48% 41% 47%

8.9

53%

47%

Total operating income split between Non-NII and NII

10.0

55%

45%

9.7

44%

56%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11

Custody, mutual funds, net life, payments cards, lendingNew issues & advisory, secondary market and derivatives

Underlying market shares render stable and growing commission and net life income SEK bn

SEK bn

44%

56%

9.5

Well-diversified revenue streams

Page 17: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

17

SEB’s financial position – 2008 vs H1 2011

Core Tier 1*

Matched funding

Leverage ratio (FDIC)

2008 2009 2010 Jun 2011

8.6%

11.7% 12.8% 13.5%

23x 18x 17x 16x

7 months

17 months 18 months 26 months

Bond inv portfolio

SEK 133bn SEK 90bn

SEK 48bn SEK 34bn

* Basel II without transitional floor; 2010 pro forma for disposal of German retail

NPLs SEK 15bn

SEK 29bn SEK 24bn SEK 22bn

17

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18

A strong capital situation

Core Tier 1 ratio (%) Equity to assets/leverage ratio (%)

Capital ratios well above European average support strong funding access

Basel II

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

Q1 08

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11

Q2 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Q1 08

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11

Q2

US FDIC

Equity to assets

Page 19: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

19

Extended match-funding in Q2 ahead of potential summer break-down

Matched funding. Note this is a cash flow based model where assets and liabilities are mapped to contractual maturities. SEB will manage more than 2 years without any new funding if the loans and liabilities mature without prolongation.

SEB’s matched funding horizon (number of months)

SEK 78bn LT funding raised in H1 2011 vs FY maturity of SEK 98bn

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Q1 08

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11

Q2

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20

Upgraded, smaller bond portfolio

Bond portfolio has decreased by SEK 80bn since mid 2008

Structural shift from unsecured financials and structured bonds into sovereign and covered bonds

Investment portfolio reduced from SEK 126bn mid 2008 to SEK 34bn in mid 2011

GIIPS exposure limited to 5% - majority in Spanish covered bonds

Bond portfolio, SEK bn Key characteristics (incl. Treasury and Trading portfolios)

0

100

200

300

400

Q2 08 Q2 11 Gov't and public sector Covered bonds Financials ABS Corporates

Page 21: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

21

Active downsizing of bond exposure to GIIPS countries GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn Majority in Spanish covered bonds

Limited in relation to total Bond portfolio

* 8 July

Other 95%

GIIPS 5%

Bank bonds 2%

ABS 28%

Covered bonds 59%

Sovereign bonds 11%

26

21 19 18 17 16

Jun 2010

Sep 2010

Dec 2010

Mar 2011

Jun 2011

Jul 2011*

Page 22: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

22

Continued improvement of asset quality without reducing the reserve ratio too fast Level of impaired loans net (%) Reserve ratio individually assessed (%)

Reserve ratio is total reserves (specific & collective) in relation to total gross individually assessed impaired loans

SEB’s impaired loans peaked two years ago and have been falling since. SEB’s reserve ratio at 65% remains the highest among peers.

Individually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Q1 08

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11

Q2 20

40

60

80

100

Q1 08

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11

Q2

Page 23: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

23 23 23

● SEB’s home markets relatively less affected

● SEB retains resilience and flexibility

● Strategic priorities remain

Page 24: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

24 24

Exploit core strengths

Maintain flexibility & resilience

Corporates in Nordics & Germany Universal bank in Sweden & Baltics

Priorities for 2011

Page 25: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

25

Great position for growth in areas of strength

Growth strategy Prerequisites

Core relationship growth

Geographic growth

Segment growth

No ailing businesses

Desired business mix in place

One SEB business model

Strong capital position

Scalable platform

Investments in Nordic & German wholesale franchise and SMEs and savings in Sweden

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26 26

Loans and commitments:

Large corporates Nordic and German expansion* continues

26

Large cap clients:

Client executives:

+91bn

Top FX-provider Best supplier of Trading and Capital Markets Operations

Mandated lead arranger EUR 1,300m

Mandated lead arranger EUR 2,000m

MLA/bookrunner EUR 750m

MLA/bookrunner EUR 2,000m

Best Sub-custodian Bank Best Supply Chain Finance Provider

+94

+136

Best Bank Best M&A House Best Cash Management House

* Statistics since launch of expansion 1 Jan 2010

Page 27: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

27

SMEs and private customers Meeting customers’ advisory needs*

Priv

ate

SM

Es

** Cash management SME customers

+7bn private deposits

48% fixed-rate mortgages

+0.1% market share gain per month

5,000 new SME customers**

+17bn Private Banking AuM inflow

No. SME customers**

Mutual fund sales Sweden***

*** Cumulative incl PPM (Svensk Fondstatistik)

+14bn new lending volume

* Statistics for H1 2011

0 20,000 40,000 60,000

80,000 100,000 120,000

2005 2007 2009 Q2 2011

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

2005 2007 2009 2011

SEB

Page 28: Investor breakfast meeting - Nomura HoldingsIndividually assessed, i.e. excl portfolio assessed loans 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11 Q2

28 28 28

Balance sheet strength ensures SEB can continue to support customers

Elevated short-term macroeconomic risks

SEB maintains its strategic direction and growth plans are on track

Outlook 2011