investment research general market conditions commodities ... · war against gaddafi caused libyan...
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Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 10 of this report. www.danskeresearch.com
Investment Research — General Market Conditions
We no longer look for a sustained price rebound in Q2 and have taken our oil and metals
forecasts for both 2013 and 2014 lower. We now project Brent at USD106 this year on
average and USD99 in 2014, the latter is notably below the forward curve. Commodities
should be resilient in coming months with a little help from old friends such as EUR/USD
and global demand, but we see energy, metals and grains alike slightly down in H2. We
stress however that commodities have less potential to move lower on a faster-than-
expected Fed tapering of QE than e.g. equities. This, combined with the risk of a broad-
based USD rebound against the EUR and the Scandi currencies materialising later in the
year, suggests that consumers should be aware of the risk of higher costs of energy and
raw materials in local currency terms despite our call for USD prices of commodities
heading lower.
Commodities have stabilised following the April sell-off but failed to move higher as we
projected in April’s Commodities Forecast Update. Prices could move a little higher in
Q3 as EUR/USD withstands Fed talk of tapering quantitative easing (QE) and as global
demand should stay decent with US in recovery still and China not falling off a cliff
growth-wise. But for Q4 we look for stabilisation and some downside heading into 2014.
While demand will of course stay key for cyclical developments, rather it is on the supply
side things are moving rapidly at present - and it is this (positive supply shock in, not
least, oil) that is set to drive prices (lower) in the longer term.
The outlook for market balances has continued to point in a bearish direction with most
markets set for inventory builds this year. At the same time, geopolitics has failed to
move oil higher and no immediate threats suggest geopolitical concerns for oil should
remain limited. US shale could continue to surprise on the upside, underlining the size of
the ongoing oil supply shock (i.e. end of super-cycle story), and OPEC likely to
overproduce still. Although we still see leading indicators pointing to an ongoing
recovery in China we have to acknowledge that the economy looks increasingly fragile,
albeit not enough to trigger more stimuli from the Chinese authorities. Also, albeit
somewhat ambiguous, recent Fed communication hints that the Fed’s current balance-
sheet expansion could wear off more quickly than previously anticipated. We have for a
while been eyeing higher US yields and a stronger USD but there is a risk that both may
arrive earlier than we expected. Such market developments will clearly have
repercussions including in the commodities sphere and could eventually weigh on prices
of energy, metals and oil alike.
We have made downward revisions to our forecasts for oil and metals but revised slightly
up on grains. We now see Brent crude averaging USD106/bbl this year, down to USD99
in 2014. We also see base metals lower across the board; copper (previously our favoured
long bet) and zinc with the better fundamentals still though. The gold correction south
could go further and also grains to come lower intra-season - but we have made minor
changes to forecasts for these.
28 May 2013
Commodities Forecast Update
Consumers, beware of higher USD amid likely H2 sell-off
Danske commodity-price forecasts
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets.
Commodity prices since New Year
Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets.
Relative price forecasts (re-based)
13 1475.0
77.5
80.0
82.5
85.0
87.5
90.0
92.5
95.0
97.5
100.0
102.5
105.0
75.0
77.5
80.0
82.5
85.0
87.5
90.0
92.5
95.0
97.5
100.0
102.5
105.0
Gold
Aluminium
Copper
index (01/05/13=100)
Corn
Brent crude
Source: EcoWin, Danske Bank Markets.
Senior Analyst Christin Tuxen +45 45 13 78 67 [email protected]
28/05/13 2012 2013 2014
NYMEX WTI 95 94 93 90ICE Brent 103 112 106 99LME Aluminium 1,848 2,052 1,940 1,836LME Copper 7,309 7,953 7,558 7,441LME Zinc 1,862 1,965 1,960 1,910LME Nickel 14,811 17,594 16,019 15,200Gold 1,379 1,669 1,439 1,219Matif Mill Wheat 204 236 238 244CBOT Wheat 696 750 713 723CBOT Corn 542 694 632 623CBOT Soybeans 1,485 1,464 1,438 1,470
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Commodities Forecast Update
Oil: Size of the supply shock surprising yet again
Developments in oil-market fundamentals have continued to block a move higher despite
decent sentiment in risk markets more broadly. US supply continues to surprise on the
upside and is set to be a pivot for global oil markets going forward, see longer-term
outlook below. Also, while OPEC has cut production volumes to just off 31 mb/d, the
cartel has started to increase supplies somewhat again slightly of late. We think this could
be a first hint to the market that Saudi Arabia will not be the only OPEC member to
accommodate output rises elsewhere and thus could end up oversupplying the market this
year, see near-term outlook below.
Fundamentals: stock overhang to be continued
A glance at inventories underlines that the stock overhang which has been in place in
most countries since early 2009 has not improved in the year to date. Not least in the US
crude inventories are booming and OECD forward demand cover remains at the high end
of the 5Y range at around 60 days. It is worth noting, however, that the stock build at
Cushing, Oklahoma has come to a halt (at least temporarily), helping to sustain a
narrowing of the Brent-WTI price differential from more than USD20/bbl in early
February to now USD8/bbl, as US infrastructure is improving to help large crude supplies
reach refiners/consumers. This should in turn remind markets that the US is at the frontier
of shifts in the global oil market at present.
We see little indications that the persistent stock overhang will be worked off any time
soon. Although global demand should stay healthy given the ongoing recovery in China,
the US and Japan, so will supplies with the latter in the near term driven by OPEC
overproduction still.
OECD stocks and Brent US oil production
Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets.
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets.
Geopolitics: Silence for now but Iran needs a ”solution”
One of the potential catalysts for a move higher in oil that we have previously pointed to,
namely the re-emergence of geopolitics on the oil-market agenda, has failed to materialise
despite continued turmoil in the Middle East-North African (MENA) region; indeed, the
lack of a major threat to oil supply (such as the Iran-Israel conflict escalating) has pushed
the geopolitical risk premium to a near-zero (if not negative) level. While we think this is
a bit unfair given the tensions still looming (Libya, Syria, and, of course, Iran), there is
little to suggest a re-pricing of this in the near term. That said, Iran is increasingly under
pressure financially as its oil revenue has plunged due to the severe sanctions the
international community led by the US has enacted against its oil exports. Finding a
solution to the Iranian situation is thus becoming ever more pertinent, and it cannot be
ruled out that the upcoming Iranian presidential election could be a catalyst for this.
Whether the “solution” proves diplomatic or military will, of course, be key for oil-price
developments.
US days of oil supply
Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets.
US vs. North-Sea oil prices
Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets.
Iran crude oil production
Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets.
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
1 11 21 31 41 51
US days of crude supply2012201120102009Average [2008-2012]
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Commodities Forecast Update
Near-term oil outlook: OPEC (Saudi!) reaction instrumental for oil prices
After having cut production extensively over the past six months, OPEC-12 and notably
Saudi Arabia increased production in April, according to preliminary data on shipments.
The rise in output comes despite both March and April seeing a large drop in oil prices,
notably down from the USD120 high mid February, and as global economic data has
started to soften in key regions. While we had argued that OPEC would end up producing
too much for this year as a whole as output soars not least in North America, leaving the
global oil market in a surplus for 2013, the timing of the step up in output is somewhat
surprising given the softness in oil prices of late.
In order to gauge the OPEC reaction going forward, we have estimated what arguably
represents a reaction function for the cartel. This provides an estimate of what level
OPEC-12 production should be at given the level of the oil price (Brent) and a measure of
oil market tightness. For the latter we use US days of supply of crude oil from the weekly
US Department of Energy (DOE) release. While this has obvious deficiencies in
incorporating global market tightness, this is outweighed by its timeliness.
We note that the model suggests that OPEC was in fact a little too slow to react in the
autumn of 2012, when global demand faltered despite the massive cuts in quota and
reasonably high compliance rates initially. At present, the model suggests that OPEC
production remains too high; the model-implied level of production has edged lower
recently as a result of the drop in prices and the larger than usual (seasonal) build-up in
days of supply in the US. This suggests that OPEC should in fact be cutting back on
production and is on the road to oversupply the market this year.
Much will depend on the Saudis, however. Saudi Arabia has acted as the swing producer
for a long time, or rather the central banker of the oil market, providing global consumers
with the crude needed during the recovery after the financial crisis, and essentially
conducting the oil-market equivalent of quantitative easing when the Arab Spring and the
war against Gaddafi caused Libyan production to come to a halt. Saudi Arabia currently
has a spare capacity of around 3.3 mb/d (Bloomberg estimates). The kingdom needs an
oil price of around USD85 to achieve fiscal balance. Although the Saudi oil minister al-
Naimi appears to be targeting USD100 at present, we are not convinced the Saudis will
continue to cut back on volumes to accommodate rising production elsewhere (Iraq, US).
OPEC-12 production, capacity, quota
Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets.
OPEC reaction function
Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets.
OPEC countries: fiscal BE oil price vs.
spare capacity
Changes in fiscal break-even prices
(selected oil producers; USD/bbl)
Source: IMF, Danske Bank Markets. Source: IMF, Danske Bank Markets.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 2000 4000
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Spare capacity (kb/d)
Fis
ca
lBE
pri
ce (U
SD
/bb
l)
0
50
100
150
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Iran IraqLibya Saudi Arabia
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Commodities Forecast Update
The April uptick in OPEC may be a first hint that the cartel (read: the Saudis) are now
less focused on stabilising prices around a certain level. And given the lack of consensus
among cartel members on production response at the moment, this may lead OPEC to
leave the global market oversupplied again this year. We believe this will ultimately
weigh on prices. With OPEC due to meet in Vienna for its bi-annual gathering on 31 May
we could see some volatility in oil prices in the near term: we expect OPEC to keep its
output target unchanged at 30.0 mb/d but comments from oil ministers could move the
market. Ahead of the meeting the UAE oil minister said that current prices are “suitable
and fair” and thus echoed remarks from Saudi Arabia earlier in the year that oil prices at
USD100/bbl are “reasonable”.
Longer-term oil outlook: US light tight oil is a game changer
The importance of the supply shock to oil markets, which the US shale boom has fuelled,
was underlined by the bi-annual Medium Term Oil Market Report from the International
energy Agency (IEA) recently published. In this, the IEA coined the North-American
shale boom a game changer for global oil markets comparable to the rise of Chinese
demand in past decades. We have previously pointed to both the US shale boom but also
Brazil’s pre-salt oil, and the potential for Iraqi output to surge coming together to form a
massive supply shock to energy markets worldwide; see Commodities Quarterly (August
2012) and Commodities 2013 (January 2013).
Notably, the drilling of light tight oil (LTO), often denoted shale oil, and oil sands have
continued to surprise on the upside since the start of the year. Fundamentally, the
important driver of the shale adventure is mainly technological: the combination of
hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling is key for exploration and production in shale
plays but the fracking process has also proved applicable to conventional sources of oil,
not least those with low permeability. However, the political approval of shale drilling in
the US has clearly also played a role. It is no secret that shale drilling has a range of
environmental consequences and that green movements have been advocating heavily
against this. Nonetheless, politicians have approved exploration and production on a wide
scale, lured by the revenue and jobs involved and the possibility of becoming less
dependent on OPEC whims.
For quite a while, this has been putting the US pipeline infrastructure under pressure, as
evident from the widening Brent-WTI price differential notwithstanding some narrowing
lately as discussed above. US export restrictions currently only allow crude oil to be
exported to Mexico and Canada, whereas no such restrictions exist for oil products. The
restrictions will likely come under pressure in the years to come as the infrastructure to
bring the US crude to consumers is gradually put in place. After all, the oil market is a
global one, where producers will be keen to bring crude to refiners not least in the non-
OECD region, still the key source of energy demand growth.
The market for natural gas remains a less global one due to the reliance on pipelines but
the rising use of liquefied natural gas (LNG), a process by which gas can be made fluid
and thus shipped over longer distances irrespective of pipelines, illustrates the move to let
excess supply meet demand. Approval of LNG projects remains a case-by-case decision
exemplified by President Obama recently approving a Texas LNG export project.
In general, we believe the past year’s developments in natural gas markets should serve as
a reminder to energy markets in underlining how new technology can push the cost curve
lower and prices with it over time.
While projections on a 20+ years horizon obviously have some uncertainty attached, the
latest long-term projections from the IEA on US import dependence suggest the US could
become a net exporter of natural gas by a small margin and reduce its oil import
dependency from around 60% today to some 20% by 2035. Obviously, this will have
US crude-oil pipelines
Source: Bloomberg.
US prices: natural gas vs. crude oil
Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets.
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Commodities Forecast Update
important consequences for the shipping industry, which will basically have to bring
OPEC crude to non-OECD countries. With an oil map characterised by a more self-
contained hemisphere, this in turn suggests a drive towards new crude benchmarks more
appropriate for e.g. the OPEC-Asia flow. For now, Brent remains the better indicator of
global oil market developments, with WTI distorted by massive US flows and lack of
infrastructure.
However, it is not just the sheer size of the volumes that matter: the quality of LTO is
exceptionally sweet (and light!), that is, the sulphur content is generally low, making it an
attractive blend for refiners/consumers. US refiners stand to benefit from this whereas
European refineries generally face a less bright outlook. With the crude supply being
tilted in a lighter direction after years in which heavy-sour Saudi crude was the marginal
barrel sent onto the market, this suggests that crack spreads (i.e. the product-crude price
differential) could narrow over time for lighter products. To what extent European
consumers will benefit from this will largely depend on refining investment and shipping
costs.
In the very long term, prices will be driven towards marginal costs and it is interesting to
note that at the level at which oil prices (Brent) have been trading on average in the year
to date, i.e. just below USD110/bbl, most sources of oil are profitable even for high-end
producers. Thus, even in the absence of new technological changes and potential
downward pressure on costs resulting from this, we reckon that oil prices could fall more
permanently below USD100 and most producers would still be willing to meet demand.
3-12M outlook: crude price to stabilise and head lower – light-heavy spread
to widen
On the whole, we expect global inventory builds this year. However, we see limited
potential for EUR/USD to drop on a 3M horizon, which together with a healthy demand
outlook for the US and parts of Asia suggests oil prices should stay within the USD100-
100/bbl interval. Further out, broad-based USD strength on Fed tapering QE should
weigh on oil prices and eventually, during the course of 2014, allow prices to move more
permanently below USD100. We forecast Brent at USD106 this year on average and
USD99 in 2014. Our forecasts are now below the forward curve for most for 2014. We
stress, however, that while we see prices stabilising and even moving lower in the longer
term, risks for oil prices continue to lie chiefly on the upside with geopolitical tensions
flaring up again, an obvious candidate for price spikes.
Crude oil at par with fair value Gasoil weaker than fundamentals
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1425
50
75
100
125
150
175
+/- 2 std. dev.
Model Danske
forecast
USD/bbl
Actual (ICE Brent)
Forward
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750USD/MT
+/- 2 std. dev.
ICE gasoil 1-pos - actual
Fair value
Source: EcoWin, Danske Bank Markets.
Source: EcoWin, Danske Bank Markets.
Break-even production costs for
different sources of crude oil
Source: Wopd Mackenzie, Danske Bank Markets.
0 50 100 150
Oil sands int.
Oil sands bit.
Ultra-deep
Deepwater
Offshore
Onshore
Break-even production costs, USD/bbl
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Commodities Forecast Update
Crack spreads: light-heavy spread set for slight widening
Regarding crack spreads, the ICE gasoil spread to crude, representative of the lighter end
of the barrel, has seen a sustained move lower since the autumn with the gasoil spread to
crude also halved to currently USD10/bbl. Our models suggest that gasoil prices have
dropped too extensively recently (with the caveat that uncertainty bands are somewhat
wide); fair value is currently held up by distillate stocks in the US running well below the
levels seen in previous years. Part of the explanation for this is that for refineries the
maintenance in Q1 was extra intensive this year, suggesting that with refiners coming
back fair value (rather than prices) could correct lower. With a mix of US light tight oil
and heavy Saudi crude set to make up the key supply additions over our forecast horizon,
we see little overall direction for crack spreads overall. That said, with the US crude still
not able to reach consumers that easily, if we are right that the Saudis will maintain
production at historically elevated levels and that global industrial demand for (mainly)
light products will stay decent, the light-heavy spread could widen as we head into 2014.
Crack-spread forecasts: gasoil and 1% fuel oil prices (spread to Brent crude)
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets.
-185
-180
-175
-170
-165
-160
-155
-150
-145
138 140 142 144 146 148 150 152 154 156 158
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2014
ULSD 10ppm CIF NWE cargo (RHS) 1.0% fuel oil FOB NWE cargo
Gasoil spread to crude moving lower
Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets.
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Commodities Forecast Update
Metals: Laying off Dr. Copper
Base metals markets have continued to look for signs of Chinese buying picking up on
the back the recovery in activity elsewhere. However, so far they have been disappointed:
a re-stocking phase has failed to materialise for a number of reasons.
First, the Chinese recovery has proved less sturdy than expected and while leading
indicators continue to point to healthy demand into H2 13, the strength of the recovery
has been disappointing to both us and the market. Part of the reason for this is that China
is currently undergoing a structural adjustment which entails a gradual decline in Chinese
potential GDP growth, i.e. the days of double-digit growth are over.
Second, and related, the Chinese authorities have become more tolerant of a deceleration
in growth. The new leadership has refrained from announcing new large-scale
infrastructure projects as the government attempts to steer Chinese growth from having
been largely investment-driven to become more geared towards consumer demand. As a
result, demand for both energy and raw materials is under pressure. In addition, the
People’s Bank of China is less keen to stimulate the economy despite subdued inflation to
avoid fuelling a booming property market and, notably, USD/CNY has been allowed to
drift consistently lower this year as the country moves gradually towards a floating
exchange rate and convertible currency. This suggests that while metals demand will not
fall off a cliff, the support seen from especially China in recent recoveries should not be
expected this time round.
Third, inventories of not least copper are booming due to a pick-up in mine supply in the
past six months and the stock overhang in the red metal has taken the market somewhat
by surprise due to the lack of transparency in world stocks caused by the ‘invisible’
bonded warehouse stocks in China. While mines have had a good run recently, we are
less certain that this provides a guide to copper supply going forward although the market
could see its first surplus for a few years for 2013. With an industry that is notoriously
prone to labour strikes and weather events and is fighting mounting issues with falling ore
grades and a lack of new deposits, we stress that copper is likely to be the subject of high
volatility for years to come as prices will need to stay at the high end of the cost curve to
incentivise new mine projects.
We have made downward revisions to all our base metals forecasts and now see even
copper a little below the forward curve; on aluminium, we remain somewhat more
bearish. Specifically, we look for LME copper to average around USD7,550/t this year,
slightly down to USD7,450/t next year; aluminium prices should feel the burden of
slightly lower energy costs over time and drop from USD1,950/t in 2013 to USD1,825/t
next year.
Copper around ‘fair’ Aluminium still below model level
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 142000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
Danske
forecast
+/- 2 std. dev.
Model
Actual
(Copper, LME 3M)
USD/ton
Forward
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 141250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
3250
3500
3750
4000
Danske
forecast+/- 2 std. dev.
Model
Actual
(Aluminium, LME 3M)
USD/ton
Forward
Source: Reuters EcoWin, Danske Bank Markets
Source: Reuters EcoWin, Danske Bank Markets
Base metals stocks-to-use
Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets.
Copper market balance
Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets
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Commodities Forecast Update
Grains: Soybeans – this year’s Achilles’ heel
The big story in grains markets over the past month has been the surge in soybean prices:
plantings of soy have been delayed in the US with less than 25% completed compared
with 75% at the same time last year. So far, the usual ripple effects to wheat and corn
have been limited as projections for this year’s harvest have been for strong crop
production. Notably, recent reports from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) have
revised higher projections for global ending stocks-to-use ratios for the current marketing
year. While grains markets will – as previous years’ experience suggests – be in the hands
of the weather intra-season, we look for some normalisation in prices this year as the
latest weather projections from both the US and Australian meteorological institutes
suggest that La Nina/El Nino patterns are weakening at the moment, thus making the
likelihood of extreme weather events this season less likely.
We look for grains to head a little lower in the near term in the absence of severe weather
disruptions but continue to see upside in grains in the longer term as agricultural
productivity is set to be impaired by climate change still.
Wheat Corn Soybeans
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500USD/bu
Forward
Fair value
Actual
(CBOT wheat 1-pos)
+/- 2 std. dev.
Danske
forecast
USD/bu
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Forward
Danske
forecast
Fair value
+/- 2 std. dev.
Actual (CBOT corn - 1-pos)
USd/bu
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
Fair value
Actual (CBOT soybeans 1-pos)
USD/bu
Danske
forecast
+/- 2 std. dev.
Forward
USD/bu
Source: EcoWin, Danske Bank Markets.
Source: EcoWin, Danske Bank Markets.
Source: EcoWin, Danske Bank Markets.
Global stocks-to-use ratios for grains
Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) Southern Oscillations Index (SOI)
Source: NOAA, Danske Bank Markets. Source: Aussie Met, Danske Bank Markets.
-2
-1.5 -1
-0.5 0
0.5 1
1.5
2
2000 2005 2010
ONI La Nina El Nino
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2000 2005 2010
SOI La Nina El Nino
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Commodities Forecast Update
Hedging: consumers, beware of USD strength amid
commodities sell-off
On the whole, we think commodities have less potential to move lower on faster Fed
tapering of QE than e.g. equities. This, combined with the risk of a broad-based USD
rebound against the EUR and the Scandi currencies, suggests that consumers should be
aware of the risk of higher cost of energy and raw materials in local currency terms
despite our call for USD prices of commodities heading lower.
For oil, while our forecasts are now below those of the market (forwards) for most of next
year, we emphasise that risks remain mainly on the upside for oil, not least due to
geopolitical tensions still around. Consumers may therefore consider using price set-
backs to lock in prices for next year. We advise leaving some longer-term exposure open
to be able to benefit from a move lower during the course of 2014 but EUR-based
consumers should be aware of the likely move lower in EUR/USD.
On base metals, risks also lie mainly on the upside, with China in a recovery phase still
and metals so far failing to move higher this year. Clients with a long exposure to
aluminium (such as hedgers of inventories) should consider locking in current prices as a
potential decline in energy prices and/or a rise in interest rates leading financial deals to
be unwound could push prices of the light metal lower in 2014. Consumers should
consider locking in some copper expenditures despite our forecast being below forwards
as the red metal will likely stay notoriously volatile.
Regarding grains, we are less convinced than the market at present that corn and soy
prices should drop from here, suggesting that consumers may wish to take advantage of
relatively low forward prices (compared with spot and our forecast) and lock in prices
further out.
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Danske Bank Markets commodity-price forecasts
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets.
Danske Bank Markets oil-products forecasts
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets.
28/05/13 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 2012 2013 2014
NYMEX WTI 95 94 93 93 91 90 90 90 90 94 93 90ICE Brent 104 113 103 105 102 100 99 98 97 112 106 99
Aluminium 1,843 2,041 1,900 1,925 1,895 1,870 1,845 1,825 1,805 2,052 1,940 1,836Copper 7,318 7,958 7,300 7,500 7,475 7,460 7,445 7,435 7,425 7,953 7,558 7,441Zinc 1,859 2,054 1,900 1,950 1,935 1,925 1,915 1,905 1,895 1,965 1,960 1,910Nickel 14,795 17,376 15,000 16,000 15,700 15,500 15,300 15,100 14,900 17,594 16,019 15,200
Gold 1,380 1,631 1,425 1,375 1,325 1,275 1,225 1,200 1,175 1,669 1,439 1,219
Matif Mill Wheat (EUR/t) 205 245 233 233 240 242 244 245 247 236 238 245CBOT Wheat (USd/bushel) 697 737 700 705 710 715 720 725 730 750 713 723CBOT Corn (USd/bushel) 544 715 600 605 610 615 620 625 630 694 632 623CBOT Soybeans (USd/bushel) 1,488 1,449 1,425 1,435 1,445 1,455 1,465 1,475 1,485 1,464 1,438 1,470
2014
Energy:
front month (USD/bbl)
Base metals:
LME 3M (USD/t)
Precious Metals:
spot (USD/oz)
Agriculturals:
front month
2013
Oil products forecasts
28/05/2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 2013 2014
Jet fuel CIF cargo (USD/MT) 937 1033 935 955 935 922 917 909 902 1024 964 913ULSD 10ppm CIF NWE cargo (USD/MT) 883 978 900 920 900 887 882 874 867 986 924 878ICE gasoil (USD/MT) 871 956 865 885 865 852 847 839 832 954 893 843ICE Brent (USD/bbl) 104 113 103 105 102 100 99 98 97 112 106 993.5% fuel oil FOB ARA barge (USD/MT) 579 612 555 565 541 524 515 507 500 624 568 5121.0% fuel oil FOB NWE cargo (USD/MT) 611 643 595 605 581 564 555 547 540 663 606 552
Crack spread forecasts
(USD/MT) 28/05/2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 2013 2014
Jet fuel CIF cargo (USD/MT) 174 208 180 185 187 189 191 191 191 205 190 191ULSD 10ppm CIF NWE cargo 120 153 145 150 152 154 156 156 156 167 150 156ICE gasoil (USD/MT) 108 131 110 115 117 119 121 121 121 135 118 1213.5% fuel oil FOB ARA barge (RHS) -184 -213 -200 -205 -207 -209 -211 -211 -211 -195 -206 -2111.0% fuel oil FOB NWE cargo -152 -182 -160 -165 -167 -169 -171 -171 -171 -156 -169 -171
Brent (USD/MT) 763 825 755 770 748 733 726 718 711 819 774 722
2014
2014
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
2013
2013
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Disclosure This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske
Bank’). The author of the research report is Christin Tuxen, Senior Analyst.
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