investment outlook - axys · pdf filemarket announcements dem plibor ... technical listings...

Fast Track Forward to

Trades & Movements by Sector Theme of the Week

Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com

1Yr T-Bill

News Snippets

110.00 5.0

ENL(P)

0.0% 3.04-3.52 0.05 0.00

5,596 MCB

Most Active

Volume Most Active

ValueΔ WoW

ROGE 11.821.40

31.15

PAD

NMHL

175

SITLH 21,500.00 43.3 92.3

Latest

26.20

Investment Outlook27-Sep-2013

Equity Equity Fixed IncomeLocal IndicesWeekly Prices:

Listed DebenturesMkt Summary & Highlights

Official ListMauritian Yield Curve

Market AnnouncementsDEM

PLIBORDividend Declarations

Earnings:

NMHL 8.3

Δ WoWLaggers

▲

-4.7 10.2

VEM

▬-0.18% 1,958.74 0.16%

SEMDEX ▼ USD/MUR

ASL INNO

POLI5.4

[%] [# k]-15.7 SBM

-7.0 5.1CSE 133.0029.30

CIMENLC

0.19

[Rs] [%]Leaders

7.003,914-9.5 CIEL

Latest

COVI[Rs]

19.0

50.50 -4.7 5.0

Weekly TMT at Rs100M stood at half itsRs200M Week-39 average.

Market cap. of top liquid stocks slid by0.1%, and that of those on our Daily by 1%.

Foll. inclusion of most recent earnings, PER deteriorated from 17.8x to 19.7x; while Div. Yield – buoyed by NMHL – improved fr2.6% to 2.7%.

Foreign Pariticipation

31.40MSIL NITL

CurrencyOfficial List Domestic FX Market Watch

FX/MUR Spot Rates

[Rs M]

926

DEM

Share of TMT

International Indices

WoW Movements

335

SODIA

Technical Listings NAVs

1,650

1,750

1,850

1,950

Sem

dex

[pts

]

-3

-2

-1

0

1

Δ% in

USD

/MU

R si

nce

30-J

un-1

2

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

1Yr-

GM

TB [%

]

30%

26%

18%

14%

7% 11% MSCH

FIN

TL

INVH

COND

Others

-0.1

-0.4

-0.6

0.3

0.1

-0.6

-0.3

0.0

0.3

MSCH FIN TL INVH COND

WoW

Chn

age

[%]

1

Official Market Indicators

SEMDEXSEM-7SEMTRI [MUR]SEMTRI [USD]Market Cap [MUR bn]Value Traded [MUR M]Net Foreign Purchases [MUR M]Market PER [x]Market Dividend Yield [%]

DEM Market Indicators

DEMEXDEMTRI [MUR]DEMTRI [USD]DEM Market Cap [MUR bn]DEM Value Traded [MUR M]DEM Net Foreign Purchases [MUR M]DEM PER [x]DEM Dividend Yield [%]


YTD

27-Sep-2013

0.22%

15.02%

▼

1,962.26▼

▲▼

29.00

192.03

17.79

Week Ended

▼

191.60▲

380.84

▲

6,177.46

1 WeekChange

13.61%

Investment Outlook

134.03%

-0.39% 10.74%

16.24%

27-Sep-2013 52 Week20-Sep-2013

3.32 14.25%

9.00

14.71%

Official Market

▼

▼

Week Ended

48.92

3.46%

16.03%

0.39%3.31182.32%

14.42%

▼

19.35%

▼

▲ 27.79

8.25%

2.20

49.12

-0.39%

2.98

▲▲

▼

23.28

18.58%

188.11

-14.14%

11.53%

199.01

19.68

199.37

-0.18%

20-Sep-2013

15.01%

10.64%

8.53%

1,958.74

-0.18%

-13.67%

94.57-11.58

Change52 Week1 Week

188.84

▼

YTD

34.11%

13.09%12.87%

2.5839.30%

-0.39%

▲ -57.66

6,188.563,134.59 3,121.09

15.16%

157.07 6.46%

Dev. & Enterprise Market27-Sep-2013

-0.04%

-0.18%

157.68

15.74%18.89%

0.43% 14.86%

380.69

214.29

2.67

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Indi

ces R

ebas

ed to

100

on

30-Ju

n-20

10

8 per. Mov. Avg. (Semdex) 8 per. Mov. Avg. (Demex) 8 per. Mov. Avg. (S&P 500)S&P 500 Semdex Demex

2

Investment Outlook 27-Sep-2013

Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947 Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com

Summary & Highlights A wait-and-see week Weekly TMT at Rs100M stood at half its Rs200M average during Week 39. Turnover slid in-line with a decrease in Foreign Participation to 23% when compared to its 35% 52Wk-average, and perhaps because local investors have already adopted a wait-and-see stance with the National Budget due to be read out in six (6) weeks. Following the inclusion of the most recent FY13 earnings, Market PER on an adjusted (for non-recurrent items) R4Q basis deteriorated from 17.8x to 19.7x; while NMHL’s dividend declaration following a two-year hiatus boosted Div. Yield from 2.6% to 2.7%. The combined market cap. of the twenty most liquid stocks declined by a mere 0.1%, while that of the stocks featuring on our Daily Flash fell by 1%. Finance In a slow week where trades were more balanced, financial stocks only made up 26% of Weekly TMT. SBM which has remained range bound since its unorthodox 1-100 share split, held steady at Rs1.01, while BBCL which traded with VWAP Rs6.27 (-0.2%) jumped to 9Wk-High Rs6.46 (+2.9%) with Q3 coming to a close. MCB which spent most of the week at Rs192.50 (-0.6%) recouped 50cts to Rs193 (-0.3%) following a slight increase in EPS to Rs18.15, ie yielding a PER of 10.6x. MCB’s PAT stood Rs300M below AXYS expectations principally due to a two-fold increase in impairments. CIM slid further on continued profit taking to its lowest level in four weeks, ie to Rs8.22 (-3.1%). Insurers MUA and SWAN were marginally traded at a flat Rs122 and Rs310 respectively, while MEI jumped to Rs98 (+3.2%) seemingly boosted by its highly improved dividends. Travel & Leisure The only hotel group to pursue along an upwards trajectory was SUN which peaked at a new 52Wk-High Rs35 (+2.9%) on Monday but slid to Rs34.50 (+1.5%) by week’s end. LUX held steady at Rs28.40 although trading at a higher Rs28.50 (+0.4%) all week, and NMHL recouped its intra-week Rs2-loss back to Rs80 on Friday after unexpectedly declaring a Rs1 dividend. CHSL’s holding, HTLS, gave up 50cts to Rs22, and a volatile MK slid to Rs12.80 (-0.8%) while ASL – seemingly buoyed by end-of-quarter fever – soared to 2Yr-High Rs110.25 (+5.0%) on thin trading. Multi-Sector Conglomerates | Holdings Among MSCH involved in the sugarcane industry, ALTEO and OMNI improved to Rs35.30 (+1.6%) and Rs85 (+1.2%) respectively, while TERRA inched marginally lower by 10cts to Rs40, and MEDL – whose FY13 are expected by Monday – finished unmoved at Rs66.

IBL and ROGE which after a long time dominated trading, moved in opposite directions. ROGE – driven higher by a return to profits at its 5-Star Heritage hotels – picked up another Rs1 to Rs191 [10% of TMT]; while IBL gave up Rs1 to Rs96 [5% of TMT]. HML was also appreciable traded at an unchanged Rs110 while CIEL gave up 4cts to Rs3.46 (-1.1%). Consumer Staples | Discretionary In-line with their respective drops in profitability, INNO {-8%}, PBL {-52%}, MOR {-39%}, ENLC {-2%}, and CTL {-3%} declined to Rs50.50 (-4.7%), Rs195 (-2.5%), Rs29.45 (-0.8%), Rs21.40 (-7.0%) and Rs23.60 (-1.7%) respectively. Trouble livestock, primate and poultry breeder, SODIA tumbled to 19cts (-9.5%) perhaps in anticipation of its upcoming FY13 financials. With the exception of downstream fuel provider, VEM which edged up by Rs1 to Rs140 having witnessed some 44k shares exchanged at VWAP Rs139.21 (+0.2%); all of CSE, MSIL and UBS soared to 1½Yr-High Rs133.25 (+5.1%), 2¼Yr-High Rs31.40 (+5.0%), and UBS to a new All-Time High Rs35.10 (+3.2%) on very thin trading, just days before Q3 end. Materials Among construction material companies, UBP and GAMMA moved in opposite directions. GAMMA which renewed with profits following a turnaround in its Malagasy lotto operations slid by 10cts to Rs28.40; while UBP which experienced a slight improvement in EPS on the back of exceptional dividends and improvements at associates, picked up 50cts to Rs95. PIM – unaffected by the halving of its earnings – traded at a flat Rs80, while PCCL experienced a low-vol. ascent to 52Wk-High Rs47.20 (+2.8%). Property Property stocks experienced a rough week. ENLL eased off further to Rs47.90 (-2.1%) in-line with a 22% fall in YoY EPS, and COVI cascaded down to 5Wk-Low Rs7 (-16%). CAUD and BLFE both traded at flat Rs1.10 and Rs7.16 respectively in spite of positive FY13 results. Investment Holdings The results of the unforeseen trading patterns were that the traditional MDIT-POLI-NITL trinity did not dominate trades. PAD witnessed exchanges of 103k shares at a level Rs81; followed by POLI which jumped to its highest level of 2013, i.e. to Rs7.02 (+0.9%); and ENL(P) which soared on thin vols. to 9Wk-High Rs29.30 (+5.4%). WoW climbers include: ENIT at Rs46.25 (+0.5%) and UFL at Rs6.92 (+0.6%) which both disclosed improved profits this week. On the other hand, WoW declines were noted on: MDIT at Rs5.80, NITL at Rs26.20 (-4.7%), and DRIL at Rs51 (-1.9%).

3

Foreign Participation

Market Announcements

Dividend Declarations

CIM ▲ROCK ▲MEI ▲ABC ▬NMHL ▲


Activity Spread


2.40 1.30 85% 26-Sep-13 14-Oct-13 03-Dec-13 Fin 2

1.00 0.50 100% 27-Sep-13 16-Oct-13 02-Dec-13 Fin 1

Net Flows

The United Basalts Products Ltd (UBP)UBP has received the SEM’s approval for the listing of up to 10M 5-Year Repo+1.2% bonds with a par value of Rs100 each.The subscription process will take place via a private placement.

IPRO African Market Leaders Fund (IAMLF)The SEM’s LEC approved the listing of 1M Non-Voting Redeemable Participating no-par value Preference Shares of IAMLFClass (I2) Institutional Class shares (IAMFLI2) on Oct 16th 2013. The subscription process will take place via privateplacement at $157.96 per share. IAMFLI2 aims to achieve long-term capital growth by investing in liquid sub-Saharanequities.

0.12 — — 20-Sep-13 07-Oct-13 24-Oct-13 Fin 2

1.70

— — 13-Sep-13 09-Oct-13 14-Oct-13 Int 2

1.70 0% 26-Sep-13 16-Oct-13 13-Jan-14 Fin 1

COMPANYDividend Change Key Dates Properties

Current Previous Div/Div Declaration Ex-Div. Pay Date Type Freq. p.a.

0.04

41%

13% 9%

8%

6%

23% MCB

NMHL

PAD

SBM

ALTEO

Others

-2

-5

-1 -1

0

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

MCB NMHL PAD SBM ALTEO

Net

For

eign

pur

chas

es [R

s m]

4

Weekly Official List Movements

SEMDEXMCB ASBM HBBCL SCIMFINCMEIMUASWAN

NMHL RSUN RLUX RMKASL

ALTEO* ATERRA BOMNI HIBL AROGE RHML

INNOPBL BMORGOLICMPL

VEMMSMENLC

MCFIUBPGAMMPIM

ENLL AMERITCAUDROCKSAREFUTDL

MDITNITLPOLIPADBMHLDALE


▼

Con.

Sta

ples

1.10

Con.

Dis

c.

▼▲

190.00

4.1

Mat

eria

ls 25.50

—

▬

▬

6.1

80.00

▬▼▲

Mul

ti-se

ctor

Con

g.

122.00

106.50

12.60

110.00

85.00 84.00

3.743.74

Prop

erty

26.20

▬

▲▬

5.80 5.88

6.98

Inve

stm

ent H

oldi

ng

—

Change

▼

PBV

1.05

10.2

▲

YTD

2.1

▼

8.366.28

67.00

7.02

1.016.46

▬122.00

8.10

—

▬

▬

▲

191.00

80.00

96.00

0.0

2.2

3.0

25.00

3.5

3.6

3.2

2.5

0.7

0.8

—0.0

97.2598.00

▼

▲

9.02

▬

47.90

140.00

50.50199.25195.00

193.00 193.50

▼

▲

34.75

1.10

▲

34.50 34.00

97.00

40.00

▲

▼

▬

▬

50.50

35.30 35.40 4.3

18.00

▬

215.00

0.067.00

— —

30.8%▼▼ 0.2

8.3

▬

2.3

0.3

6.96

5.76

31.2%—

49.8%81.00

11.4%215.0081.00

-56.0%

81.00

8.50179.00

-46.6% —

11.610.8310.00

28.1%

12.7

▬ 0.0

67.00

26.95

94.7594.5028.40

—▼

1.35

9.02▬

▬1.08

5.50

0.0

▬

1.6115.00

27.50 27.5%

—

0.0

—

▬▲

25.500.40.9

95.00

1.35

28.50

14.71,654 2.7

ROELow DY

19.0

52-Wk

▼

Investment Outlook

VWAP HighYoY27-Sep-13

5.515.0% 19.7

1.73.4

0.5

1.1

4.01.56

8.95

192.50

18.2%4.90 8.2

678.75

1.35.90

13.1%

1.272.00100.0013.8%

15.0%92.3

232

34.5%

59.3%

0.30.9

20-Sep

1,965

0.76-27.6%-19.0%0.2

18.00

8.8

2.7 2.6

Trav

el &

Lei

sure

122.25

Fina

ncia

l

59.00

14.70

9.5

53.1%

89.3%28.0%

155.001,958.7

3.94.80.3

▬

N/A8.22

80.00

13.8018.00

16.7%3.2

6.26

25.5%

0.0 2.7130.00

As atWeek Ended

27-Sep-2013

10.6194.001,962.3

23.4%1.01 31.3%1.01

PER27-SepOfficial Mkt

Val.

31.6

14.9

80.00

11.90.1

28.40 28.40

18.10

110.2512.9012.80

34.5579.50

26.7%28.50

5.9%

8.48

14.70.4%

95.00

1.50.4

310.00 315.00

12.90

45.5%

3.13.80.7

35.0082.00

15.00

34.341.6%

340.00

3.5

0.275.3%

26.7%

—

110.00

28.90

65.8

0.7

2.8

5.4

52.00

75.9%

2.011.4%

-5.5%

1.5126.00

9.55

3.2 0.8

4.11.6

2.6

—0.0

17.9

—

1.00.60.9

0.6

0.6

2.127.30

7.80.5

27.001.3

13.6310.00

18.3

70.50 1.7

0.0118.3

4.8

27.605.90

7.00

3.70

1.00

5.5

1.20

82.50

1.3

22.4

0.91.927.10 19

0.7

19.60

62.00

52.9

84.00215.00

25.50

1.5

15.7

0.8

0.3

37.60

1.15.50 5.50

28.50

1.2

4.9

26.6

3.9

4.111.7

—

0.0

33.4

1.5

—

1.1

2.5

9.19.8

20.618.3

—

0.6

3.46.8

0.4

0.0 1.0

1.9

0.0

0.72.3

2,2145.6

* ALTEO did not publish FUEL's FY12 attributable earnings, hence our R4Q PER is not accurate as for the other listed companies

15.0

87.7 5.357.0

10.1

12.2

—

4.65

0.3

0.4

1.7

1.40 —1.5

18.6011.4%

-8.9%

25.0%-18.0%

-0.1%

-15.1%

30.2%

24.4%

N/A34.2%

9.3

N/A

-7.9%-4.9% 87.50

24.9%

6.70

61.50

9.00

54.00

2.9

—

4.1

23.4

0.4

3.8%

5.9%

3.3

5.3

23.5%

130.00

—

-0.7%

—

180.00

31.10

12.80

134.00

—

1.005.00

—

1.4

—

10.0%

0.030.0% 0.40.310.00

3.62.2

41.5

—

0.79.7

6.00

0.2

-10.4% -12.2%

23.50

-0.9%

25.7

0.08

7.5

17.0%

—

25.20

78.00

16.9

101.00

-2.7% -14.5%

20.9%

-2.5%

1.2%

34.4%

34.2%

-12.4%

5.3%

3.1%

12.60

53.00

0.04

139.25

200.00

110.00

139.00

—

1.0 8.9

—

15.00

30.90—

50.00

40.90

21.1

-4.4%

8.60

29.00

0.0

10.8

4.40

20.3%

35.3%

80.25

3.6

36.50

26.7%45.9

98.003.1

-15.2%

193.00

191.0010.6%110.00

-0.9%

2.7

10.0%

15.1

16.9%

190.0095.75

42.6088.50

74.0032.4%

7.4%

53.00

3.9%40.10 40.0017.5%84.50

5.410.2

▼

—21.40▼

▼

8.10 —

—30.05

—

0.3

2.5

23.00 21.55

—

0.50.229.45

0.548.95 47.35

0.8

25.0%11.8

0.04 -50.0%

2.7

0.2

21.9%

37.50

-2.2%

105.00

29.70

11.4

109.00

216.00

24.1%14.5%

5

Weekly DEM Movements

DEMEXANGLO

CHSL SHTLSMOLISCT HTPL

CIELMEDLEUDCUTIN

PHINVITALQBLCSE AUNSE RSODIALFLLMLCMILMCOSSAIL

CTLABCACCMSILRHTUBS

BYCHCHEMGAZPCCL

FORTMFRE

ASCEBLFECIMOCOVISITLH

BTEL

MASC

DRILENL(P)ENITFIDESUFLALMABRILMSH


0.07.00

42.00

157.68

66.00▼

▬

34.00

▬

140.00

—

47.20

160.00

26.00

22.00

▬

▬

489.00

—

▬

▬

—

Fin.

27-Sep-2013

▬

M-s

ec. H

ldg.

—

▬

133.25▬

▬

130.00

▬

—

▲

12.50▬

▬

9.00

—

▬0.0

—

▼

▬

Com

.

▼

▬

Cons

umer

Sta

ples

0.1952.00

123.00

5.74 —

0.51,420

—

—

0.8

140.00

10.50

0.3

47.50 0.0

21.50

0.015,000

7.16 7.16 7.16

6.80

DEM

12.50

0.2

▲10.50

-70.8%

-25.0%

0.0

26.00

▼

▲

Trav

el &

Lei

sure 23.00

155.00

10.50

Con.

Dis

cret

iona

ry

35.10

29.90

8.3%

—

—

0.0%

▬

—

Week EndedVal.

—

—

—

650.00

—

23.00 —22.00

6.5%

0.1921.50

0.1

-2.9%

—

Investment Outlook

▬

8.1%

31.9%

13.8%

▬

-26.2%

27-Sep

123.00

5.9%

1.9%

-25.0%

9.3%

133.25

0.021.50

23.1%

6.80

9.00

123.00

3.165.75

-75.6%

-5.6%0.1

45.007.12

0.43.46

31.9%

30.0%

-2.6%

12.5%

Change

6.3%

-18.4%

19.6%

-1.9%

0.0

66.0012.50

157.07

22.20

5.74

650.00

—

0.0—

130.00

31.40

—155.00 —

1,405

22.00

47.20

YTD

152.00

42.00

9.90

157.85

70.50

127.00

6.80

50.00

186.0024.90

-10.3%

20-Sep

—

8.30489.00

▲

▬

▬

45.90▬

—140.00

1,420

170.00

—

35.10

▬

0.5

0.0

29.3025.6%

▬

▬

Inve

stm

ent H

oldi

ng

0.0

101.25

2,830 3.6

Ind.

Mat

eria

ls

3.9%

——

489.00

1,420

13.3%

52.00

▼

13.3%

52.00

Hlth

.Pr

oper

ty

0.0

8.40 6.15

▬

▼

-23.6%2,940 2,450

45.25

3.3

0.0

2.7

79,630

332,700

21,25021,500

54.0

5.5

-29.3%

7.00

3.2

45.25

2,700

25.3%

93.25

▬

13.9%2,700▬

101.25 101.00

2.1

101.25▲

2,120

93.25

38.6%

22.50

7.10

48.1

60.002.9%

25.00

6.40

14.5

780.00152.00

0.0

923.00923.0050.00

52.00

7.6%

-2.1%4.8%

3.7%

1.5%

3.50

9.00

42.00

— —126.75

45.007.12

0.21

—

44.2%

9.2

10.9

0.07.9

1.1

1.140.00

13.30

0.78

-20.0% 9.65133.00 96.00

45.8050.00

13.8%

20.4%

9.8%

4.8%

25.6

650.003.3140.05 27.8DY

3.32 —

10.4

10.6%

10.6

438.00

11.4

0.3

10.2

229%

925.00

3.5

2.3%

1.7

10.6

As at

59.50

6.70

3.60

0.045.5

2.40.0

0.9

2.350.7

6.10

11.5%13.8%

9.0▼▬

22.60

27-Sep-13

—

0.8570.00

19.00

9.9

—18.50

ROE

0.2

34.6

—1.95.5

2.7

1.0

76.4

1.21.1

0.0

—

— —

2.5—

HighVWAP

4.7

0.8

0.8

7.30.8

16.7

19.20122.00

34,400

6.7%

—

1.1

4.4

0.0

2.6

5.3

24.2

0.3

5.90

2.6

47.1

9.3

1.4

0.02.0

13.86.1%

0.1

1.12,130

-5.6%

49.8039.60

45.30

3.6

39.6% 42.4%

27.80

2,130 2,130

— —

1.79

0.2

1.79

0.0

6.88 6.88 0.2

27.9

7.6086.00

4.65 6.7

46.00

6.92

51.6%2.2 60.9%

46.255.8

12.7

30.50

1.3

1.6 9.6

12.1

72.5%5.1

2.4

—

13.7

2.8

1.1

-10.9%

38.0%

-7.0%

70.00

19.7

43.4

24.70

10.5

0.50.5

0.6

-6.8%

0.0%

10.5%

0.0 1.1

0.0

47.20

0.8165.00

0.53.2

1.4

1.6 —

0.4

46.50

N/A

0.6101.00

6.80

0.9

0.6

38.9

2.3

—

-23.6%

9.2%

2.3

—

51.5%

0.0

2.8

▼

1.81

0.7

18.20

16.6 2.0

—

15.5

5.2

1.6

0.2%

6.9%

6.35

-0.5%-27.6%

7.0%

89.00

6.54.2

1.5

25.55.2

2.1

142.00 0.73.8

39.50

0.0

3.0

16.2

0.4

11.2

17.7

0.12

1.9

49.9

—0.6

0.67.6

27.10

0.7130.00

—

0.5

1.58.80

-5.8%

4.5

8.9%1.3

118.00

15.9%

23.10 0.0

7.8

0.6

1.20

140.00

5.326.00

18.6%

42.00

15,000

0.0

6.3

1.6

1.30.9

-10.3%

16.90

0.7

61.5

4.8

6.4

—11.016.30

45.00

20.6 2.90.54.80

7.00

55.4

PBVPER

1.8—

—

11.50

4.4—

3.4

0.5

0.60.6

3.316.10

Low

34.8%11.7

0.95.4

—

2.2

17.8

0.0

52-WkYoY

▲

▲▲

▬

23.65

31.406.7%

0.9%▬

—6.80

0.1

170.00

30.8%46.25

▬

▬

0.0

34.00

-26.9%

27.7551.25

34.00

12.4%

0.2

1.2%

157.00

27.5%145.00

170.00

51.6%

50.00 -19.2%

-6.7%—

3.0%

—

51.00

10.6%

35.1%

24.0023.60

35.5015.1%

0.0

-20.4%

—

35.10

8.95

2.00

29.00

25.20

31.4019.70

7.5%

14.50

0.0

4.2

3.5

1,170

8.9

0.5

15.0

3.4

24.0%

52.00

6

Official List Results for Financial Year ended Jun 30th 2013

Result comments

MCB

MEI

FINC

T&L

LUX

ALTEO

IBL

ROGE

INNO

PBL

MOR

MSM

ENLC

GAMM

UBP

PIM

ENLL

MERIT

CAUD

ROCK

UTDL

MDIT

NITL

PAD

* Attributable earnings adjusted for non-recurrent items and fair value gains


Con

Dis

c.Pr

oper

ty

▼ -1.76 -1.31 -34.1 Axess' (Car dealer) profits improved to Rs26M, while a Rs200M shortfall in its industrial segment(mainly construction) → greater losses; esp. after Port Chambly went into administration.

▲ 6.06 5.64 7.4Overall turnover ↓ 5%, but core biz. marg. ↑ from 14% to 16%. However, retail and agri. biz.registered steeper losses. Higher EPS stemmed fr assocs. & excep. divs.

▼ 0.49 0.84

▼ 2.05 2.61 -21.5 Op. profits ↑ 59% due to ↑ sugar prices. However, substantially reduced proceeds fr sales of land &investments → EPS ↓.

-0.59 -0.03 -1,988 FY12 losses stemmed from the initial setting of the company, while FY13 losses stemmed from thedecreased fair value of its real estate investments coupled with FX rate.

▬ — -0.96 — Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.

12.26 -52.4 Although revenue ↑ 6.5%, op. profits ↓ 15% due to the ↑ taxes on alcoholic bevs + new "sugar" taxon drinks. EPS halved due to substantially accentuated losses (fr Rs50M to Rs130M) in Réu. & Mada.

▼ 1.40 2.30 -39.4 Rev. ↓ 8% in part from the drop in retail prices of edible oils + volatile prices of crude edible oilsreduced margins from 5.6% to 3.8%.

Inve

stm

ent ▬ — 0.07 — Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.

▲ 0.46 0.02 2,200As markets, both local and overseas, picked up, NITL experienced Rs108M in fair value gains againstRs78M in losses the year before.

▲ 0.04 -0.09 L to PWhile PAD benefitted from the improved results of CAUD, it mostly benefitted from higher gains on"bargain purchases".

Mat

eria

ls

▲ 1.46 -0.66 L to PAlthough Lottery revenue dropped 10%, a renewal with profits in Madagascar, resulted in overallprofitabililty for the group.

▼ 4.74 9.75 -51.4 Reduction in crate sales volumes resulted in an Rs11M drop in turnover which trickled down to itsEPS.

-41.5 Rev. halved and margins shrank from 27% to 18%. With its on-going Ellipsis project, we expect thesurplus to fund its construction.

Con.

Sta

ples

▼

▲ 0.05 0.04 41.2Boosted by improved rentals and security business, both revenue and operating profits improved byRs9M.

4.43 4.81 -7.9 Although revenue ↑ 7%, op. profits ↓ 7%. INNO was unable to offset rising feed & prod. coststhrough its increased poultry retail price; ergo the reduced margins.

▼ 5.83

Cong

/Hld

gs

▲ 1.93 0.85 126.2AXYS FY12 adj. EPS = FUEL 9Mth + DRBC FY12; hence we are unable to compare results. That theonly comparable was at TPC (ALTEO's Tanzanian sugar ops.) where net income ↓ 18%.

▬ — 6.37 — Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.

▲ 7.42 3.50 112.0AXYS adj. EPS is for a 12Mth period and excludes discontinued ops. PAT boosted by incrementalimprovements across most sectors, but principally by a turnaround at up-market Heritage Resorts.

▼

▬ — -19.01 — Deadline extension obtained from the FSC. Expected by Nov 30th.

% Δ

Fina

ncia

ls

▲ 18.15 17.32 4.8Loans & Depo. ↑ 10% → const. LDRs & NII Marg. NFCI ↑ 18% boosted by X-border trade fin. CIRimproved fr 46% to 45%. EBT before impair. ↑ 13%, but impair. 2x ↑ to Rs1bn → 5% EPS growth.

▼ 10.31 10.40 -0.9 Commendable performance in spite of a slight dip in earnings. Op. profits fell 10% due to floodrelated claims. Both insurance and leasing bizs. grew by >15%.

▲ 0.27 0.19

Jun-12

40.9Substantial ↑ in EBT from Rs31M to Rs42M driven by improved leasing business whichcompensated for heightened share of losses at associates.

—▬ — 0.24


Adj. EPS*Yr Ended YoY

Jun-13

Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.

7

DEM Results for Financial Year ended Jun 30th 2013

Result comments

MOLI

TPL

MEDL

EUDC

UTIN

PHIN

SODIA

LFL

LMLC

CTL

ABC

ACC

MSIL

RHT

UBS

MAT GAZ

ASCE

BLFE

DRIL

ENL(P)

ENIT

FIDES

UFL

ALMA

BRIL

MSH

* Attributable earnings adjusted for non-recurrent items and fair value gains


▬ — 39.41 — Related to MEDL, EUDC and SODIA.

Inve

stm

ent H

oldi

ngs

Cong

/Hld

gs

▼ 16.17 16.86 -4.1 Reduced income from FAST (stone crushing) and dividends almost entirely offset by higher proceedsfrom the disposal of investments.

▲ 1.03 0.47 119 Related to FIDES and BLFE.



▬ — 1.88 — Related to ENLL, ENIT, ENLC, ROGE, ASCE and NMHL.

▲ 1.66 0.62 169AXYS used company EPS for a like-with-like comparion, but will switch to group EPS starting thisquarter. Performance related to NMHL, ROGE and ASCE.

▲ 3.72 2.82 32 Related to CIEL, ALTEO and CTL.

—


▬ — 15.67 —

4.46 -0.99 L to P Turnaround in bus operation from losses of Rs7M in FY12 to profits of Rs14M + fair value gains fromMCB's share price ascent.


14.85 11.95 24.2

▼ 4.54 4.68 -2.9 PAT marginally lower (Rs2M) than FY12. The decline in woven fabrics sales was offset bysubstantially improved knitwear segment.

▬

▼ 5.09 8.35

— -0.64 — Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.

6.12 — Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.

Prop

erty ▼ 36.50 76.90 -52.5 Rental income plunged significantly due to the closure of Riche Terre commercial centre for

renovation works and the disposal of properties amid the CIM/ROGE spin-off.

▬ 0.43 0.00 N/A Rs62M in profits stemmed from its joint venture with IOREC in the development of the "Azuri" real-estate development at Roches Noires.

Cons

umer

Dis

cret

iona

ry -39.0 Fewer cars sold led to an 11% decline turnover and margins shrank from 5% to 3%.


▬

▲

Jun-13 Jun-12 % Δ

Cons

umer

Sta

ples

▼ 4.80 10.59 -54.7 PBL's holding company. Please consult PBL's comments.

▬ — -0.03 — Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.

▼ 1.95 3.45 -43.6 Turnover from sales increased by Rs150M, but margins halved from 6% to 3% due to the increasedcost of raw materials.

▲


T&L ▼ 0.55 0.89 -38.2 Drop in occupancy rates triggered by fewer German & French tourists coupled with partial closure of

hotel for planned refurbishments.

▲ 0.13 0.10 23.2 Refurb. at Hennessy Park + opening of Wellness center @ Le Suffren boosted topline by Rs19M.Although op. margins shrank by 200bps to 11% smaller fin. Costs → improved earnings.


Adj. EPS*Yr Ended YoY

Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.

Revenue, boosted by both improved domestic sales and exports, jumped 25% at constant margins.

8

SEM Debt Securities

LUX 9% ConvertibleMCB Repo+1.35%UTIN Repo+3%OMNI 7.15% [Rs k]OMNI 5.7% [Rs k]

Fixed Income Instruments

Moody's Credit Rating: Baa1

Overnight [% p.a.]1 Week [% p.a.]1 Month [% p.a.]3 Months [% p.a.]* Assumes conversion into equity in Dec-14; and factors for conversion discount and dilution


1,010.4 1,000

▼

20-Sep

104.11

1,136.3

6.3%

27-Sep8.8% 3.5% 12.26

27-Sep-2013

YTM Week Ended YTM @ FV

Investment Outlook

▲ 11.94

-7.0%

Debentures

2.67

106.14

@ Par

20

-16

1,049.6

-20

@ Par

YTD in bps

27-Sep

3.29

105.47

3.7%

1,104.2

106.82

27-Sep

5.4%

12.77

YTM

101.62

1 Week

0.00%

6.2%

13.5%

100

8.8%

▲▬

2.673.29

-0.9%

@ ParAXYS Fair Valuation

99.85

27-Sep-20131.68

1,000

Settlement Price

▲

20-Sep-2013

10.7%

Change

7.3% 7.3%

5.4%

▬

1,134.1

10

PLIBOR

-2 2.14

27-Sep

▬ 0.00% -4.6%

4.2%

5.8% 100

3.07%

Week Ended

4.8%

YTD

▲

0.00%

1.632.14

5.4%

5.8%▼ 5.6% 5.6% 4.2% 7.2% 1,038.8

1

2

3

4

INte

rest

Rat

e [%

]

PLIBOR 1-Day PLIBOR 3-Mth Tbill 91-Day

3.0 4.3

6.2

2

4

6

8

10

0 5 10 15

Sove

reig

n Yi

elds

[%

]

Instrument Maturity [Yrs]

Poly. (Current)

Poly. (Previous)

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

-100

0

100

200

300

p

[bps]

YTM

pre

miu

m o

ver R

isk

Free

[bp

s]

MCB Repo+1.35% UTIN Repo+3% OMNI 3Yr 5.7% LUX 9% CB*

Current

Prev. Yr

9

SEM Listed Fund Net Asset Values

Africa Sustainability Fund (ASF)

CIEL Investment Ltd (CIEL)

Evisa Investments Ltd (EIL)

Fidelis Opportunity Fund PCC - Focus Cell 2 (FOF)

Global Diversified Fund PCC - Cell No. 1 (GDF)

IPRO Growth Fund Ltd (IGF)

JPT Capital Agrifund (JCA)

Mauritius Development Investment Trust Co Ltd (MDIT)

National Investment Trust Ltd (NIT)

Novare Africa Fund PCC (NAF)

NinetyEast Timaeus Capital Fund PCC - Cell A (NTCF)

P.O.L.I.C.Y. Ltd (POLI)

RSJ Prop, PCC

Theseus Property Fund Ltd (TPFL)

Triangle Real Estate India Fund LLC (TREIF)

AXYS Capital Management Ltd (ACML)

– ACM India Focus Fund (AIFF)

– ACM Aussie Ltd (AAL)*

– ACM European Ltd (AEL)*

Global Investment Opportunities Fund Ltd (GIOF)

– Kotak Indian Growth Fund (Class A)

– Kotak Indian Mid-Cap Fund (Class C)

– Kotak Liquid Fund (Class I)

Imara

– Imara African Opportunities Fund Ltd

– Imara Global Fund Ltd

Lancelot Global PCC*

– Commodities Partners International (CPIL)

Kotak Investment Opportunities Fund Ltd (KIOFL) Class D Shares

– Kotak Indian Infrastructure & Realty Fund (Series 1)

– Kotak Indian Infrastructure & Realty Fund (Series 2)

*NAV provided every Friday. AXYS uses the NAV value closest to month's end


▼

$

388

0.68

899

▼

957

-0.3%

0.09

▼

▼

▼

5.32

72.56 -0.3%

16.06

-27.3%

▼

-15.0%

4.2%

-3.7%

-13.9%

17.10

2.92

-12.5%

$

$

$

433

-29.3%

▼

2.73 -29.3%

3.04

$

0.80

16.89

-32.1%

-1.3%

13.0%

▼

-1.8%23.65

0.0%

24.49

8.698.70

▼

8.3%

7.3%

▬ $

-0.2%901

1.75

#REF!

▲

9.6%▲

—

▼

▼ 2.1%

0.71$

1,602

9.2%

1.29

$ (AUD)

72.87

401

-0.3%

110112

0.6%

55.01

Rs

4.31

-0.4% 4.8%

12.9%

—

1.5%

16.3% 59.4%

—

1.23

1.00

49.36 51.53

1.00

-22.1%

-0.9%

7.4%

Rs 27.57

1.00

26.92

17.1%

70.24

1.6%

$

0.0%

€

0.0%

-12.3%

▲

£

26.68

▲

112

$

▼

0.79

▼

▼

▲

▼

▲

1.27

▲

0.79

24.18

0.77

10.84

8,919 8,960 8,997

Rs

1.70

902

-12.8%

-2.1%

€

5.39

106.61

Rs 4.23

270

$

300

4.36

0.09

10.84 10.84

249

5.44

1.63

Rs 0.08

▼

$

3.30

2.84

-12.3%

3.08

$

£

Jun-13

1,605 1,605 2.7%

4.6%

3.9%0.4%

$

YTD

-36.0%

1.1%

£

890

May-13

8.65

2.72 -42.1%▼

MtoM$

Official Market


Jul-130.1%

4.70

Change

Rs

942▲

4.67

Month Ended

10

Domestic FX Market Watch

Sep-2013Aug-2012Jul-2013Jun-2013May-2013Apr-2013Mar-2013Feb-2013Jan-2013H2-2012H1-2012H2-2011H1-2011H2-2010TOTALTOTAL weighted average price


78.1

31.83

The Bank of Mauritius intervened on the domestic foreign exchange market on Tuesday and Friday of this week purchasing atotal of $0.7M at VWAP Rs30.40 and €0.4 at VWAP Rs41.03.

148.6 77.1

28.4

Intervention Periods

364.5

31.08

27.1

Price [Rs]


246.6 30.64

4.0 30.79 49.8 40.45

47.9 3.1

Price [Rs]Qty [M]

40.65

30.56

39.13 30.55

3.3 38.94

EUR

43.3

264.8

40.74

219.5 40.53

USD

30.93

40.48

40.72

19.8

31.04 40.25

28.44

40.09 1,086.2

30.05

24.6

Qty [M]

2.1 30.84 9.9 40.91

45.3

7.9

0.7 30.40 3.2

40.44 15.0

19.2

40.40

29.57

15.3 31.01 44.8

31.7

39.6

40.76

29.27 38.58

37.00

38.00

39.00

40.00

41.00

42.00

43.00

26.50

27.50

28.50

29.50

30.50

31.50

32.50

MU

R per EUR M

UR

per U

SD

BoM Interventions USD EUR ECB derived EUR

11

Forex Rates

USD / MUREUR / MURGBP / MURZAR / MURAUD / MUR100 JPY / MUR


DOW JONESNASDAQS&P 500FTSE 100CAC 40DAXALL ORDNIKKEI 225HANG SENGBSE 30


27-Sep-2013

▼

29.58-16.8%

Change

-0.98% -9.8%

-0.5%

▼

31.15

3.16

▼

31.56

▲

-1.37%1,698.67

31.77

3.24

20-Sep-2013

31.10 0.16%


1,722.34

-0.46%

Investment Outlook

▼

▼

▲▼

49.97

▼▼

▼

-0.90%

19,844.02 20,263.71 2.1%

5,270.80 0.60%

23,502.51 11.4%

27-Sep-2013

21.7%

42.11 -0.28%

8,664.10

YTD

8,694.18

27-Sep-2013

20.3%14,742.42

1 Week

-2.47%

41.99

-10.1%

0.15%49.89

Week Ended

AXYS Stockbroking Ltd has issued this document without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individualrecipient. AXYS Stockbroking Ltd will not be under any liability for loss or damage of any kind whatsoever arising in connection with the contents of thisdocument. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment.This document has been based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but which have not been independently verified. AXYSStockbroking Ltd makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. AXYSStockbroking Ltd is a member of the Stock Exchange of Mauritius and is licensed by the Financial Services Commission.

15,328.30 15,636.55 -1.97% 18.5% 13.7%3,787.43 3,789.38 -0.05% 27.9% 20.7%

6,565.59

42.0% 66.4%14,760.07▼

0.12%-1.26% 2.4%

▲

5.8%23,207.04

-2.07%

18.8%-0.35%

6,625.39

5,302.26

17.4%

13.7%

-0.9%

15.6%4,206.04

▲

▼

Change

▲

52 Weeks

20-Sep-2013

4.6%

52 WeeksWeek Ended

0.67% -21.0%-12.6%

-14.8%

0.6%YTD

29.29

1 Week0.3%

13.8%

21.1%10.8%

4,186.72

Currencies

13.6%

2.4%

ORR Start

80

85

90

95

100

105

Inde

x =

100

on

30-

Jun-

2010

8 per. Mov. Avg. (USD) 8 per. Mov. Avg. (EUR) 8 per. Mov. Avg. (GBP)USD EUR GBP

12

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