investment directions en us

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Central Bank Divergence As the Federal Reserve (Fed) ends monetary easing and is set to raise rates sometime in mid-2015, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) are moving toward more easing. Short-term bonds should feel the impact of rate increases more than long-term bonds, as lower rates in Europe and Japan increase demand for long-term U.S. bonds with relatively more attractive yields. That, as well as several secular trends, will likely keep long-term U.S. bond yields low relative to history. Expect a Stronger Dollar Divergent central bank policies support a stronger dollar, with a number of implications, including lower oil prices, which benefits oil-importing countries like China, India and Japan. U.S. Economy Leads the Pack We believe the U.S. economy will show gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the area of 2.5% to 3% in 2015. While the U.S. economy is not without its challenges (labor participation is still low), it is in a better position than other developed markets. Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the U.S. economy is weaker growth overseas. Be Prepared for Higher Volatility Volatility, as measured by the VIX Index, is still well below its historical average, as was the case for most of 2014 (with a few notable exceptions, such as autumn). With the Fed ready to change tack, the economy struggling in Europe and geopolitical tensions in places like Ukraine, we expect higher volatility in 2015. The Bottom Line We continue to prefer stocks over bonds and cash, even with volatility expected to rise. We would focus on opportunities in certain international markets and cyclical sectors. Japan remains the most attractively priced developed market, with catalysts for further stock gains on the horizon. Investment Directions 2015 MARKET OUTLOOK WHAT’S NEW: Downgrade Energy to Benchmark Weight What Could Go Wrong in 2015?—Page 8 SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY? ® p OVERWEIGHT q UNDERWEIGHT ADDITIONALLY, FOCUS ON Equities Japanese Equities Munis, MBS & High Yield Bonds Bonds Defensive Stocks Treasuries Consider emerging markets in Asia. Consider trimming exposure to gold, which is likely to come under pressure from rising rates, a benign inflation outlook, and poor supply-and-demand dynamics.

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Investment directions for 2015 in the US. Indicates central bank divergence, expected stronger dollar, and how the US will lead the pack. Additionally, the article describes the higher volatility index and the bottomline for preferred stocks aver bonds.

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  • Central Bank DivergenceAs the Federal Reserve (Fed) ends monetary easing and is set to raise rates sometime in mid-2015, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) are moving toward more easing. Short-term bonds should feel the impact of rate increases more than long-term bonds, as lower rates in Europe and Japan increase demand for long-term U.S. bonds with relatively more attractive yields. That, as well as several secular trends, will likely keep long-term U.S. bond yields low relative to history.

    Expect a Stronger DollarDivergent central bank policies support a stronger dollar, with a number of implications, including lower oil prices, which benefits oil-importing countries like China, India and Japan.

    U.S. Economy Leads the PackWe believe the U.S. economy will show gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the area of 2.5% to 3% in 2015. While the U.S. economy is not without its challenges (labor participation is still low), it is in a better position than other developed markets. Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the U.S. economy is weaker growth overseas.

    Be Prepared for Higher VolatilityVolatility, as measured by the VIX Index, is still well below its historical average, as was the case for most of 2014 (with a few notable exceptions, such as autumn). With the Fed ready to change tack, the economy struggling in Europe and geopolitical tensions in places like Ukraine, we expect higher volatility in 2015.

    The Bottom LineWe continue to prefer stocks over bonds and cash, even with volatility expected to rise. We would focus on opportunities in certain international markets and cyclical sectors. Japan remains the most attractively priced developed market, with catalysts for further stock gains on the horizon.

    Investment Directions2015 MARKET OUTLOOK

    WHaTS NEW:Downgrade Energy to

    Benchmark Weight

    What Could Go Wrong in 2015?Page 8

    S o w h at d o I d o w I t h m y m o n e y ?

    pOVERWEIGHT qUNDERWEIGHT aDDITIONaLLY, FOCUS ON Equities

    Japanese Equities

    Munis, MBS & High Yield Bonds

    Bonds

    Defensive Stocks

    Treasuries

    Consider emerging markets in Asia.

    Consider trimming exposure to gold, which is likely to come under pressure from rising rates, a benign inflation outlook, and poor supply-and-demand dynamics.

  • [ 2 ] B L a C k R O C k I N V E S T m E N T D I R E C T I O N S

    UnIted StateSWe remain neutral U.S. stocks. Within the United States, we favor cyclical sectors but are wary of defensive, rate-sensitive sectors.

    an accelerating U.S. economy is a notable exception in a world where growth is expected to be below the long-term trend for most countries. We anticipate growth in the area of 2.5% to 3% in 2015.

    The good is outweighing the bad in the U.S. economy. Lower energy prices (see the chart below) and reduced debt levels alongside higher equity and home values compensate for low but rising wages and support consumer spending. Businesses are investing and hiring more amid relatively encouraging earnings growth.

    Nonetheless, there are risks to the U.S. growth story. Geopolitical tensions could intensify and rattle global demand, slowing down growth everywhere including in the United States. Also, a quicker-than-expected Fed tightening could bring about unwanted market volatility, particularly when equity valuations are already expensive.

    LOWER GaSOLINE PRICES GIVE amERICaN CONSUmERS a BREak

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    4.0

    4.5

    US$/GAL

    20022000 2004 2006 2010 2012 20142008

    U.S. gasoline prices fell below $3 per gallon, a level not seen since 2010. Lower prices at the pump give consumers more money to spend on discretionary items and reduce costs for many businesses.Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream, U.S. Energy Information Administration, as of 11/24/14.

    Turning Insight Into actionINSIGHTAlthough markets should be more volatile in 2015, the United States remains the strongest economy in the developed world. Consider taking advantage of market dips to add U.S. exposure.

    aCTION Blend ETFs for core market exposure with high-conviction active solutions that focus on finding value in the market.

    CONSIDER iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT), Basic Value Fund (MABAX)

  • 2 0 1 5 m a R k E T O U T L O O k [ 3 ]

    InternatIonal developed marketSWe maintain a benchmark weighting to the eurozone. The eurozone economy continues to lag, showing little sign of catching up with the rest of the world.

    Outright deflation is a palpable risk as all member countries have undershot the ECBs 2% inflation target (see the chart below), especially given the currently lower energy prices. The central bank has vowed to combat the threat of deflation by expanding its balance sheet by 50%, and market participants are hoping for broader monetary easing measures. Leaving aside numerous political barriers to a sovereign quantitative easing (QE), the jury is out on whether the QE measures will create enough of a wealth effect to restart the currency unions economy. While similar policy undertakings worked well in the United States, the eurozone economy is structurally different, with low equity and home ownership rates atop the list.

    Still, given depressed growth expectations, even a moderate cyclical rebound would be a positive surprise for European assets. Meanwhile, recovering demand from overseas combined with a cheaper euro could boost earnings for eurozone companies, particularly export-oriented large caps.

    In addition, we see pockets of value in European cyclical stocks, such as the automobile sector, which has performed worse than what business sentiment would indicate, and the luxury goods sector, which has generated solid sales in the United States. Valuations in general are compelling, but when balanced against a still soft recovery and weak earnings growth, we hesitate to move to an overweight at this point.

    EUROzONE INFLaTION RaTES mISSING TaRGET

    0.0-1.5-2.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

    GreeceSpain

    SlovakiaPortugalSlovenia

    ItalyCyprus

    BelgiumIreland

    NetherlandsLuxembourg

    EurozoneFranceEstonia

    GermanyMalta

    FinlandAustria

    ECB Target

    CPI INFLATION (%)

    Persistently below-target inflation in eurozone member countries spells deflationary risks for the currency union, pushing the ECB to implement more aggressive easing measures.Sources: Eurostat, as of 10/31/14.

    Turning Insight Into actionINSIGHTEurope has intriguing pockets of value, while Japan appears relatively undervalued in the world today.

    aCTION Use an active manager with strong stock selection expertise or be selective with ETFs.

    CONSIDER Global Long/Short Equity Fund (BDMIX), Global Dividend Fund (BIBDX), iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ), Global Allocation Fund (MALOX)

  • [ 4 ] B L a C k R O C k I N V E S T m E N T D I R E C T I O N S

    InternatIonal developed marketS (COnTInUED)Japan remains our favorite pick, and we stay overweight. Even after an autumn rally mostly derived from earnings gains, the valuation multiple for Japanese equities is still one of the lowest among developed markets. Despite structural challenges such as deteriorating demographics and a high debt burden, there are solid investment drivers supporting the market in the near term: the BoJs massive monetary stimulus, further earnings upside thanks to a cheaper yen, and the possible delay of the second part of a major sales tax hike.

    Also driving the uptrend is the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), the worlds largest government pension fund, doubling its domestic equity allocation, which could nudge other pension funds into equities. Meanwhile, Japan Inc. is displaying an increasing appetite for stock buybacks, dividends and spin-offs, which should help return on equity.

    a near-term risk, however, is Prime Minister Shinzo Abe losing popular support. A reduced majority could hamper the Abe administrations ability to implement structural reforms.

  • 2 0 1 5 m a R k E T O U T L O O k [ 5 ]

    emergIng marketSWe advocate for a benchmark positioning in emerging market (Em) equities. Our outlook for Asian economies, such as China and India, and certain eurozone satellites is positive.

    Although nominal growth in many EM economies is likely to trend down in 2015, relatively attractive valuations, improving current account imbalances and dissipating inflation pressure (leaving room for local monetary policy accommodation) make for better economic conditions compared to a year ago. While the Feds eventual monetary policy normalization could lead to heightened market volatility and increased pressure on EM currencies, some countries will fare better than others. For example, as central bank policies diverge, satellites of the eurozone and Asia will have more latitude to cut interest rates to spur growth because of very accommodative policies from the ECB or BoJ. This unlevel playing field is one reason that a selective approach to EM investing is warranted.

    Commodity prices also contribute to Em dispersion. Falling oil prices will benefit oil-importing countries through lower cost of living, easing inflation, as well as reduced current account and fiscal deficits. On the other hand, oil exporters, such as Russia, Brazil, South Africa and Middle East countries, will likely struggle with rising budget deficits and downward pressure on currencies (see the chart below).

    In addition, prospects for economic reform will play a material role in determining performance. With key EM elections behind us, investors are focused on how quickly new governments are able to deliver proposed reforms. Market participants will be looking for reforms that could lead to new growth opportunities and sustainable fiscal policy, as well as policy changes that bring about improvements to corporate governance and cash flow.

    We are optimistic about asia and look forward to seeing positive changes in China, India and Indonesia.

    ESTImaTED TRaDE BaLaNCE ImPaCT OF a $10 FaLL IN OIL PRICES

    -1.2-1.5 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.50.0

    ThailandHungaryCzechIndiaKoreaPolandTurkey

    South AfricaPhilippinesIndonesiaRomania

    ChinaBrazil

    ArgentinaMexicoChile

    MalaysiaRussia

    % OF GDP

    Falling oil prices lower the cost of living, inflationary pressure and current account deficits among oil importers but exert pressure on the budgets and currencies of oil exporters.Sources: Oxford Economics, Citi Research, as of 11/24/14.

    Turning Insight Into actionINSIGHTIt may be time to consider getting back to a neutral exposure in emerging markets, but investors should remain selective.

    aCTION Access specific countries or regions, or use an active manager with expertise to identify opportunities.

    CONSIDER iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Asia ETF (EEMA), Emerging Markets Allocation Fund (BEEIX)

  • [ 6 ] B L a C k R O C k I N V E S T m E N T D I R E C T I O N S

    global SectorSWe stay overweight the technology and financials sectors. With the U.S. economy rebounding and Fed policy normalization approaching, we prefer cyclical sectors that are still reasonably valued (see the chart below) and are geared toward benefiting from a pick-up in global growth and lower energy prices. While technology stock valuations are moderately above their long-term average, the sector still demonstrates good momentum and could gain from an expected increase in global capital spending. However, when volatility starts to rise, investors should consider trimming this momentum trade, or tightening stop-losses to potentially avoid a sharp drawdown. We also think financials stocks offer value and could gain from higher rates and a strengthening economy.

    We reduce our energy sector weight to neutral. While we still like global integrated oil companies for their attractive valuations and diversified business models, we are becoming more cautious toward exploration and production companies as well as oil servicing companies given that they are more sensitive to any further downward pressure on oil prices.

    We continue to be cautious on defensive and certain dividend-rich sectors, particularly consumer staples and U.S. utilities. These sectors all sport aggressive valuations and carry hidden duration risk, or interest rate sensitivity. If bond yields increase even moderately in 2015, these equity sectors are likely to underperform.

    a CLOSER LOOk aT WORLD EqUITY VaLUaTIONS, SECTOR BY SECTOR

    Consumer Staples

    Healthcare

    Technology

    Consumer Disc.

    Utilities

    Telecoms

    Industrials

    Materials

    Energy

    Financials

    5 10 15 200

    10-Year Average

    IBES 12-Month Forward P/E Ratio - MSCI Sector Index

    Cyclical sectors are reasonably priced when compared to their long-term average, but the same cannot be said for defensive and dividend-oriented sectors. Consumer staples and U.S. utilities display significant overvaluation.Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream, BlackRock Investment Institute, as of 11/25/14.

    Turning Insight Into action INSIGHT Favor cyclical sectors over defensive and dividend-oriented sectors. Consumer staples and U.S. utilities look particularly expensive.

    aCTION Tap into potential technology and financial opportunities using specific sector exposure and consider a long/short approach to help differentiate sources of risk and return.

    CONSIDER iShares Global Financials ETF (IXG), iShares Global Tech ETF (IXn) and Global Long/Short Equity Fund (BDMIX)

  • 2 0 1 5 m a R k E T O U T L O O k [ 7 ]

    FIxed IncomeWe remain underweight Treasuries and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). As the market hones in on the timing and trajectory of the Fed tightening cycle, volatility in the two- to five-year part of the curve will likely persist. Rates are likely to trend higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield grinding toward 3% as we move into 2015.

    We remain overweight high yield. Low default rates and firming U.S. economic growth continue to be supportive, and while we still see high yield as relatively attractive compared to other fixed income instruments, we are increasingly selective regarding creditworthiness and would avoid excess exposure to U.S. energy issuers. Investment grade credit spreads have widened by roughly 30 basis points from the summer tights, and are now back to late 2013 levels (see the chart below). Should this continue, it may provide a near-term opportunity in this sector.

    WIDENING INVESTmENT GRaDE CREDIT SPREaDS

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    1/14 3/14 5/14 7/14 9/14 11/14

    BASIS POINTS

    Spreads on the Barclays U.S. Corporate Bond Index widened out to late 2013 levels. A continuation of this trend could potentially make investment grade bonds more attractive.Source: Barclays, as of 11/24/14.

    We remain overweight municipals. While munis are no longer cheap on an absolute basis, they remain relatively attractive given improving issuer creditworthiness. Headwinds include burdensome pension obligations and possibly more volatility as the Fed tightening approaches.

    We remain underweight non-U.S. developed markets and neutral Em debt. We prefer hard-currency USD/euro EM bonds amid a strengthening dollar. But rising issuance and the volatility in the oil marketwhich is negatively impacting certain EM commodity producershave created pockets of vulnerability.

    We remain overweight mortgage-backed securities (mBS), which continue to look relatively attractive from an income perspective in the context of modestly increasing interest rates.

    Turning Insight Into actionINSIGHTWith interest rates likely to rise in the United States in 2015, fixed income investors continue to face significant challenges.

    manage Interest Rate Risk

    aCTION Consider a flexible strategy with the ability to actively manage duration.

    CONSIDER Strategic Income Opportunities Fund (BSIIX), Strategic Municipal Opportunities Fund (MAMTX), Global Long/Short Credit Fund (BGCIX)

    aCTION Reduce interest rate risk through time by using a diversified bond ladder and matching term maturity to specific investing.

    CONSIDER iBonds

    Seek Income

    aCTION Cast a wider net for income while carefully balancing the trade-offs between yield and risk.

    CONSIDER Multi-Asset Income Fund (BIICX), High Yield Bond Fund (BHYIX), iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG), iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD)

    Build a Diversified Core

    aCTION Use core bonds for diversification benefits and potential protection from unforeseen shocks to equity markets.

    CONSIDER Total Return Fund (MAHQX), iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF (IUSB)

  • [ 8 ] B L a C k R O C k I N V E S T m E N T D I R E C T I O N S

    PRICEY EqUITIES mORE VULNERaBLE TO a RISE IN VOLaTILITY

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    Long-Term Average

    12-M

    ONTH

    FORWARD P/E RATIO

    2004 2006 2010 2012 20142008

    Valuations of global equities have been growing since 2011 and are now higher than their long-term average.Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream, IBES, MSCI, BlackRock Investment Institute, as of 11/24/14.

    hot topIc: what coUld go wrong In 2015?Although we hold a generally constructive view of the outlook for 2015, the potential for shocks is always there. With assets ranging from fully valued to expensive, investors may be vulnerable to any potential setbacks. Here are some scenarios that we believe could cause bumps in the road:

    Geopolitical tensions intensifying. While investors tend to worry more about all things economic, one exception should be the conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine. Should it escalate, more sanctions and anxiety over the gas supply could disrupt markets in Europe.

    Europe is also vulnerable to pressure points from the inside. We trust the will of European policymakers to keep the eurozone together, though euro pessimists argue that over the long term a breakup is inevitable without radically greater economic and financial integration. One near-term risk: a possible win by the far-left populist party in an early Greek election.

    Higher and faster interest rate hike from the Fed. If stronger economic growth leads the Fed to raise rates sooner or higherthan the market expects, a short and intense burst of volatility in both stocks and bonds is highly possible. An added challenge: Under this scenario, the correlation between stocks and bonds would likely rise, impacting the hedging value of bonds.

    U.S. growth slower than anticipated. The U.S. economy is in a cyclical upswing, one of the few major economies expected to accelerate in 2015. But the economy has its share of vulnerabilities in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. Should slow income growth undermine consumption, there is a chance growth would disappoint. This has happened before and would most likely lead to higher volatility, especially with equities already on the pricey side (see the chart below).

  • 2 0 1 5 m a R k E T O U T L O O k [ 9 ]

    Global Region Valuations GrowthProfit- ability

    Risk/ Sentiment momentum

    Our View underweight neutral overweight

    Related iShares ETF Tickers

    d e v e l o p e d m a r k e t S North america

    United States + + + EUSa Canada + + EWCEurope

    Eurozone + EzU Switzerland EWL United Kingdom + EWUasia Pacific

    Japan + + + EWJ Australia EWae m e r g I n g m a r k e t S

    asia Pacific China + + mCHI India + + + INDa South Korea + EWYLatin america

    Brazil + EWz Mexico EWWEmerging EmEa

    Russia + ERUS South Africa Eza

    Global Sector & Style Valuations GrowthProfit- ability

    Risk/ Sentiment momentum

    Our View underweight neutral overweight

    Related iShares ETF Tickers

    c y c l I c a l S e c t o r SConsumer Discretionary RXIEnergy + IXCFinancials + + IXGIndustrials + EXIInformation Technology + + + IXNMaterials mXId e F e n S I v e S e c t o r S

    Consumer Staples kXIHealthcare + + + + IXJTelecommunications + IXPUtilities JXIS t y l e S

    U.S. Small/Mid Caps IWmU.S. Mega/Large Caps + + OEF

    Fixed Income Sector Valuations EconomicsRisk/

    Sentiment momentumOur View

    underweight neutral overweightRelated iShares

    ETF TickersEmerging Markets EmBU.S. High Yield Credit + + HYGU.S. Investment Grade Credit + LqDU.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities + mBB, GNmaU.S. Municipals + mUBnon-U.S. Developed Markets ISHG, IGOVU.S. TIPS + STIP, TIP

    U.S. Treasuries + SHV, SHY, IEI, IEF, TLH, TLT

    Supply & Demand

    Opportunity Holding Cost

    Safe Haven Demand

    Inflation Hedge

    Demand momentumOur View

    underweight neutral overweight ETF TickersGold*

    * See the appendix for an explanation of the methodology for our gold views and other outlooks. Note that the time frame for these views is generally three to 12 months. Please note that the views expressed above in the factor table are for time frames of at least three months. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research, investment advice or a recommendation regarding the iShares Funds or any security in particular. This information is strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and is subject to change. This information does not represent the actual current, past or future holdings or portfolio of any BlackRock client.

    Underweight: Potentially decrease allocation Neutral: Consider benchmark allocation Overweight: Potentially increase allocation

    unattractive neutral + attractive underweight outlook slightly underweight outlook current neutral outlook slightly overweight outlook overweight outlook

    DRILLING DOWN: EqUITY aND FIXED INCOmE OUTLOOkS

  • [ 1 0 ] B L a C k R O C k I N V E S T m E N T D I R E C T I O N S

    The analysis behind our equity views:Our country and sector views are based on an analysis of the extent to which macroeconomic factors have been priced in at the country and sector level. We are overweight (underweight) countries and sectors where market valuations are low (high) relative to the underlying fundamentals, with the expectation that the economic factors will be fully incorporated into prices in the future. To determine our country views, we look at these macroeconomic factors:

    Valuations: If a country has a low price-to-book ratio (P/B) relative to both its own trading history and to other emerging or developed countries, we assign it a +; if high, a -.

    Growth prospects: We assign a + to countries that are grow-ing faster (as measured by leading indicators and earnings growth prospects) than their past trends and a - to countries growing slower.

    Corporate sector profitability: A country with a relatively profit-able corporate sector (as measured by ROA) is assigned a + and we give a - to countries growing more slowly.

    Risk / sentiment: A country that is perceived as relatively safe (according to historical volatilities and credit default swap (CDS) spreads) is assigned a +; a risky country is assigned a -.

    Momentum: An asset with a relatively good return performance within the previous year is assigned a +; an asset with rela-tively poor returns is assigned a -.

    The factors are not equally important in driving returns at a given point in time. As a result, when it comes to formulating our final views, the various factor readings are not additive. For example, a + value factor may overshadow negative readings in other factors, leading us to still like the country.

    We use a similar methodology for coming up with our sector and style views, focusing on valuations (P/B and P/E), profit-ability (ROA), risk / sentiment (historical volatilities and sector spreads) and momentum. In addition, we consider the global growth outlook for cyclical and defensive sectors.

    In addition, our view on gold is similarly based on the macro-economic factors that historically impact gold returns. These include the opportunity cost of holding gold (real interest rates); supply and demand; inflation (gold as a real asset tends to act as an inflation hedge); safe haven demand (during periods of high financial stress, demand for gold tends to increase); and momentum.

    The analysis behind our fixed income views:In general, when formulating our fixed income views, we put more weight on the Valuations bucket than on either the Economics or Risk / sentiment buckets.

    Valuations: We focus on discounted risk-adjusted cash flows relative to market prices. When a sector exhibits market prices well above what our model sees as fair, we assign the sector a -; we assign a + when the opposite is true.

    Economics: In general, when the overall economic environment (as measured by basic economic and/or aggregate balance-sheet fundamentals) is particularly favorable for a given fixed income sector, we assign a +; we assign a - when the opposite is true.

    Risk / sentiment: When a sector has exhibited strong positive returns/risk appetite (as measured by trailing returns) over the previous several months, we score it a +; we assign a - when the opposite is true.

    Momentum: An asset with a relatively good return performance within the previous year is assigned a +; an asset with relatively poor returns is assigned a -.

    appendIx

  • 2 0 1 5 m a R k E T O U T L O O k [ 1 1 ]

    l e t U S k n o w

    How do you use this market commentary and do you find it useful? Please share your feedback and any questions or concerns you have at [email protected].

    You also can find the latest market commentary from the Investment Strategy Group at BlackRockblog.com, BlackRock.com and iShares.com.

    Risk appetite Index Investor sentiment has weakened further since our last Investment Directions update amid concerns over the growth outlook outside the United States, the future path of Fed policy and recent turmoil in the commodity market. Global growth remains uneven: Europe, Japan and China struggle, while the U.S. economy shows definite signs of improvement. Meanwhile, the spread between low-quality and high-quality U.S. corporate debt has widened for the fifth consecutive month as fixed income volatility has inched up.

    RISk aPPETITE DIaL

    Less

    Ris

    k

    more R

    isk

    last month

    ContributorsRuss koesterich, CFa, is the Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock, and Chief Global Investment Strategist for iShares. He is a founding member of the BlackRock Investment Institute, delivering BlackRocks insights on global investment issues.

    Nelli Oster, PhD, is a Global Investment Strategist for BlackRock, where her responsibilities include developing the tactical country, sector and asset allocation models.

    Heidi Richardson is a Global Investment Strategist for BlackRock, where her responsibilities include relating the Investment Strategy Teams research and investment views to key institutional and financial advisor clients.

    kurt Reiman is a Global Investment Strategist for BlackRock, where his responsibilities include relating the Investment Strategy Teams research and investment views to key institutional and financial advisor clients.

    matt Tucker, CFa, is the Head of north American Fixed Income iShares Strategy within BlackRocks Fixed Income Portfolio Management team.

    Stephen Laipply is a Product Strategist for BlackRocks Model-Based Fixed Income Portfolio Management Group.

    Terry Simpson, CFa, is a Global Investment Strategist for BlackRock, where his responsibilities include relating the Investment Strategy Teams research and investment views to key institutional and financial advisor clients.

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There may be less information on the financial condition of municipal issuers than for public corporations. The market for municipal bonds may be less liquid than for taxable bonds. Some investors may be subject to federal or state income taxes or the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Capital gains distributions, if any, are taxable. Noninvestment-grade debt securities (high-yield/junk bonds) may be subject to greater market fluctuations, risk of default or loss of income and principal than higher-rated securities. An investment in the Fund(s) is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency and its return and yield will fluctuate with market conditions.The iShares Funds are not sponsored, endorsed, issued, sold or promoted by Markit Indices Limited, MSCI Inc., or S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. None of these companies make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in the Funds. BlackRock is not affiliated with the companies listed above. Index data related to the underlying indexes is provided by the respective companies above.The iShares Funds and BlackRock mutual funds that are registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (Funds) are distributed in the U.S. by BlackRock Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, BlackRock).This material is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of any fund (nor shall any such shares be offered or sold to any person) in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of that jurisdiction.In Latin America: FoR InSTITuTIonAL And PRoFeSSIonAL InveSToRS onLy (noT FoR PubLIC dISTRIbuTIon)It is possible that some or all of the funds mentioned or inferred to in this material have not been registered with the securities regulator of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay or any other securities regulator in any Latin American country, and thus, might not be publicly offered within any such country. The securities regulators of such countries have not confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. No information discussed herein can be provided to the general public in Latin America. In Hong Kong, this information is issued by BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited . This material is for distribution to Professional Investors (as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap.571 of the laws of Hong Kong)) and should not be relied upon by any other persons. In Singapore, this document is issued by BlackRock (Singapore) Limited (company registration number: 200010143N) for institutional investors only. For distribution in Korea and Taiwan for Institutional Investors only (or professional clients, as such term may apply in local jurisdictions). This document is for distribution to professional and institutional investors only and should not be relied upon by any other persons. This document is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation of any securities or BlackRock funds in any jurisdiction in which such solicitation is unlawful or to any person to whom it is unlawful. Moreover, it neither constitutes an offer to enter into an investment agreement with the recipient of this document nor an

    invitation to respond to it by making an offer to enter into an investment agreement. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. There are risks associated with investing, including loss of principal. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to fluctuate. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest in any BlackRock fund and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer. Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy. This document contains general information only and does not take into account an individuals circumstances and consideration should be given to talking to a financial or other professional adviser before making an investment decision. You are reminded to refer to the relevant prospectus for specific risk considerations which are available from BlackRock websites. BlackRock is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc., or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks, servicemarks or registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners. 2014 BlackRock Inc. All rights reserved.notice to residents in Australia:FoR WHoLeSALe CLIenTS And PRoFeSSIonAL InveSToRS onLy noT FoR PubLIC dISTRIbuTIonIssued in Australia by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN 13 006 165 975, AFSL 230523 (BIMAL) to institutional investors only. iShares exchange traded funds (ETFs) that are made available in Australia are issued by BIMAL, iShares, Inc. ARBN 125 632 279 and iShares Trust ARBN 125 632 411. BIMAL is the local agent and intermediary for iShares ETFs that are issued by iShares, Inc. and iShares Trust. BIMAL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of BlackRock, Inc. (collectively BlackRock). A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or prospectus for each iShares ETF that is offered in Australia is available at iShares.com.au. You should read the PDS or prospectus and consider whether an iShares ETF is appropriate for you before deciding to invest. iShares securities trade on ASX at market price (not, net asset value (NAV)). iShares securities may only be redeemed directly by persons called Authorised Participants.notice to investors in new Zealand: FoR WHoLeSALe CLIenTS onLy noT FoR PubLIC dISTRIbuTIonThis material is being distributed in New Zealand by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN 13 006 165 975, AFSL 230523 (blackRock). In New Zealand, this information is provided for registered financial service providers and other wholesale clients only in that capacity, and is not provided for New Zealand retail clients as defined under the Financial Advisers Act 2008. BlackRock does not offer interests in iShares to the public in New Zealand, and this material does not constitute or relate to such an offer. Before investing in an iShares exchange traded fund, you should carefully consider whether such products are appropriate for you, read the applicable prospectus or product disclosure statement available at iShares.com.au and consult an investment adviser. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investing involves risk including loss of principal. No guarantee as to the capital value of investments nor future returns is made by BlackRock or any company in the BlackRock group. Recipients of this document must not distribute copies of the document to third parties. This information is indicative, subject to change, and has been prepared for informational or educational purposes only. No warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any way for errors or omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock. No representation or guarantee whatsoever, express or implied, is made to any person regarding this information. This information is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account any individuals objectives, financial situation, or needs. You should seek independent professional legal, financial, taxation, and/or other professional advice before making an investment decision regarding the iShares funds. An iShares fund is not sponsored, endorsed, issued, sold or promoted by the provider of the index which a particular iShares fund seeks to track. No index provider makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in the iShares funds.2014 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights reserved. bLACKRoCK, iSHAReS and So WHAT do I do WITH My Money are registered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. in the United States and elsewhere. All other marks are the property of their respective owners.