investment advisory group, market navigator€¦ · fixed income us large cap equity 6.75% 15.2%...

Market Navigator

Securities and Insurance Products and Servicesbull Are Not FDIC or any other Government Agency Insuredbull Are Not Bank Guaranteedbull May Lose Value

M a y2 0 2 0

from the Investment Advisory GroupSunTrust Advisory Services Inc

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Monthly Letter

Asset Class Returns

House Views

1 HOUSE VIEWS 3 EQUITIES

4 F IXED INCOMEUS amp Global Snapshots

2 ECONOMY

Bear vs Bull Case

Recurring amp Topical Charts



House Views

MONTHLYLETTER

hellipAfter the very favorable riskreward environment we discussed near the market lows we view the current short-term outlook as more mixed Still we see better relative value in stocks on a longer-term basis

ldquo

After the sharpest decline from a record high to a bear market stocks continued to roar back in April Stocks posted their best monthly return since 1987 Similarly credit markets which we discussed as an opportunity last month posted strong gains

At first glance the robust capital gains seem divorced from the dismal economic trends and headlines of the past month The US economy reported its weakest quarter of growth since the financial crisis and the outlook for the second quarter is expected to be the worst since quarterly data became available in 1947 Offsetting this unprecedented shock to the economy is a fiscal and monetary response that has been equally unprecedented in the size and speed of its implementation The 2008 financial crisis still so fresh in everyonersquos mind is a positive insofar as the experience undoubtedly contributed to the swiftness of the governmentrsquos response Markets were also buoyed by tentative signs that the coronavirus infection curve is showing signs of flattening and optimism surrounding new therapeutic treatments

From an economic perspective this could be perhaps one of the sharpest but also one of the shortest recessions in US history Given stocks have bottomed five months prior to the end of recessions on average the market is now pricing in an increased likelihood that economic activity begins to improve albeit from a very depressed level sometime during the summer The next test will be the gradual reopening of the economy and this is likely to be uneven and met with fits and starts for both the economy and markets

After the very favorable riskreward environment we discussed near the market lows we view the current short-term outlook as more mixed Still we see better relative value in stocks on a longer-term basis Accordingly we favor an averaging-in approach for investors underweight equities and becoming more aggressive on pullbacks For investors who contemplated selling at the recent low now that the market has seen a rebound this is also a good time to revisit asset allocations to ensure consistency with goals and risk tolerance

From a portfolio perspective we see the US as best positioned to navigate the current uncertainty International markets remain cheap but are in a fragile positon given weaker economic trends and a less coordinated response The backlash against Chinarsquos handling of the coronavirus outbreak is growing and gaining traction not only in the US but in Europe as well and we have become incrementally more negative on emerging markets Interest rates are set to stay low in the near term and we maintain an up-in-quality focus within fixed income The opportunity in credit has diminished but we still see some relative opportunity in investment grade and high yield corporate bonds for investors with a higher risk tolerance

Warmly

Keith Lerner CFA CMTChief Market Strategist

Asset Class Returns Through April 2020

Data Source SunTrust IAG FactSet Data as of 43020Past performance does not guarantee future resultsReturn values based on indices by MSCI SampP FTSE Russell Bloomberg HFR JP Morgan Please see disclosure page for index definitionsAn investment cannot be directly made into an index

107

128

65

92

142

127

88

18

06

06

52

-07

38

14

-15

29

Global (MSCI ACWI)

US Large Cap (SampP 500)

International Developed (MSCI EAFE USD)

Emerging Markets (MSCI EM USD)

US Mid Cap (SampP MidCap)

US Small Cap (SampP Small Cap)

Global Real Estate (FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs)

US Core Bonds (Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate)

US Mortgage-Backed (Bloomberg Barclays US MBS Index)

Governments (Bloomberg Barclays US Government)

Corporates (Bloomberg Barclays US Agg IG Corporate)

Intermediate Municipal (Bloomberg Barclays Municipal 1-15 Year)

High Yield (BofAML High Yield Master)

International Developed (ICE BofAML Global Government xUS)

Bloomberg Commodity Index

HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index

MTD ()-129

-93

-178

-166

-197

-241

-167

50

35

88

14

-12

-98

04

-245

-42

Global (MSCI ACWI)











Intermediate Municipal (Bloomberg Barclays Municipal 1-15Year)


International Developed (ICE BofAML Global Government x US)



YTD ()-50

09

-113

-120

-149

-196

-83

108

78

141

99

24

-53

44

NA

-232

08

Global (MSCI ACWI)






US Real Estate (FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs)

US Core Bonds (Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate)



Corporates (Bloomberg Barclays US IG Corporate)


High Yield (ICE BofA High Yield Master)

International Developed (ICE BofA Global Government x US)



1 Year ()

Fixed Income

Equity

Non-Traditional

For domestic use onlyPast performance does not guarantee future results Keep in mind that investing involves risk The value of your investment will fluctuate over time and you may gain or lose moneyIn this document we express our high-level investment strategy views without portfolio context constraints We aim to represent relative opportunities within each broader asset class This allows us to signal what we are watching and where things are changing at the margin within positions that may differ from our asset allocation guidance and Strategy Portfolios Long-term expected risk return and correlation statistics are derived from the Portfolio amp Market Strategy teamrsquos capital market assumptions process and are not guaranteed Secular trends such as demographics global debt inflation etc are initially assessed to determine the impact on global markets over the next decade With an understanding of the current stage of the business cycle a combination of quantitative and fundamental techniques is used to further analyze factors that include but are not limited to (1) the outlook for asset class return drivers (2) the probability of sustained returns (3) absolute and relative valuation measures (4) the impact of economic drivers on asset class assumptions and (5) changes in investor sentiment and liquidity Capital market assumptions are reviewed andor modified at least once a year

Asset Class View Forecasts amp Valuation

Since our last publication of House Views we have downgraded our view on emerging markets (EM) Given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and its effect on global growth as well as rising USChina tensions EM is likely to continue to face significant headwinds With the great uncertainty in near-term earnings we have temporarily suspended our targeted forward PE range which is less useful in the current backdrop

Investment and Insurance Products bullAre not FDIC or any other Government Agency Insured bullAre not Bank Guaranteed bullMay Lose Value

May 4 2020

Asset Classes EquityEquity Global Equity 675 168Fixed Income US Large Cap Equity 675 152Commodities US Small Cap Equity 750 201Cash Intl Developed Markets Equity 650 185

Intl Developed Markets Small Cap 700 192Global Equity Emerging Markets Equity 725 244US Large Cap US Mid Cap Fixed IncomeUS Small Cap Intermediate-Term Municipals 225 35International Developed Markets US Core Taxable Bonds 250 33Intl Developed Markets Small Caps US Government Bonds 200 39Emerging Markets (EM) US IG Corporate Bonds 350 60Growth amp Value Style US HY Corporate Bonds 500 100

US Fixed Income Key IAG 2020 ForecastsUS Government 2020 Global GDP ForecastUS Mortgage-Backed Securities US GDP RangeUS Investment Grade Corporate (IG) Year-End Fed Funds Rate RangeUS High Yield Corporates (HY) 10-Yr US Treasury YieldFloating-Rate Bank Loans SampP 500 12-Month Forward EPSDuration Bloomberg Consensus FactSet Estimates

Expected

Return

Expected

Risk

$14522

Less

Attractive

More

Attractive

-15-54 - 00

000 - 025025 - 150

Less

Attractive

More

Attractive

Tactical Outlook (3-12 Months) Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (10 Yr)

Less

Attractive

More

Attractive

Expected

Return

Expected

Risk

Global Equity Market ValuationCurrent Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio10-Year Average PE Ratio10-Year High PE Ratio10-Year Low PE Ratio

SampP 500 MSCI ACWI MSCI EAFE MSCI EM203x 166x 143x 122x

110x205x 173x 163x 135x150x 140x 132x

100x 96x 91x 82x

USE THIS ASSET ALLOCATION

Intl Dev Small Caps


Intl Dev Small Caps

Economy

Global Snapshot from the Investment Advisory Group

D E V E L O P E D M A R K E T S

U S The COVID-19 induced US recession clearly began in March The speed and size of the US monetary and fiscal response has been unprecedented more than double the size of the Great Financial Crisis program and almost concurrent with the downturnrsquos start This should help blunt the downside Expect follow-on programs albeit smaller than the CARES Act

E U R O Z O N E EU leaders failed to reach an agreement for a fiscal stimulus package that would allow risk-sharing between member countries Spainrsquos proposal that involved perpetual bonds (with no maturity date) failed to get traction The European Central Bank is expected to increase monetary stimulus and a range of available financing vehicles

G E R M A N Y After five weeks of the shutdown Germany started reopening its economy Even with massive fiscal stimulus to the tune of 20 of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) including loan guarantees Germanyrsquos economy is at risk of shrinking by 10 in 2020

J A PA N The Bank of Japan expanded monetary stimulus by quadrupling commercial paper and corporate bond purchases The bank also removed its self-imposed limits on government bond purchases According to the central bank even with expanded monetary stimulus Japanrsquos economy is expected to shrink by 5 with inflation falling back into negative territory in 2020

E M E R G I N G M A R K E T S

C H I N A The Chinese economy shrank 68 in Q1 2020 the first drop in quarterly economic activity in the last four decades Most COVID-19 restrictions have been lifted to restart the economy The lack of demand for Chinese goods from Western countries resulting from the virus is expected to hit the Chinese economy in the second half of 2020

B R A Z I L A political crisis is brewing in Brazil on top of the pandemic-related uncertainty High profile Justice Minister Sergio Mororsquos resignation has caused a significant drop in the Brazilian currency and other Brazilian assets

M E X I C O The economy of Mexico is expected to be one of the hardest hit by the COVID-19 crisis with its economy connected to US manufacturing tourism and workersrsquo remittances originating from the US

A R G E N T I N A Argentina is expected to enter a ninth sovereign default in May after failing to make a bond payment to international investors and starting the clock for a 30-day grace period The Argentinian government made an offer to international bondholders that will suspend all debt obligations for three years offered reduced coupon payments and a 54 reduction in the face value of the outstanding debt

G L O B A L O U T L O O K

The global economy is expected to experience its worst recession since the Great Depression The demand shocks due to social distancing lockdowns and quarantine efforts are significant and visible The supply shocks that have just started with food processing factories are adding fuel to current uncertainties Central banks deployed an unprecedented amount of monetary stimulus and countries with fiscal room like the US UK Germany Canada or Japan implemented a massive amount of fiscal stimulus Their collective actions will provide a robust economic impetus when a cure or vaccine becomes available

For the first year since 2009 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a negative global economic growth rate of -30 for 2020 A robust subsequent recovery is expected in 2021 at 58 assuming successful containment efforts or a readily available vaccine or cure for COVID-19

There are still risks to the IMFrsquos projections Its assumptions for the European economic recession are milder than the consensus estimates Emerging market economies tied to energy and commodities like Russia or Saudi Arabia are open to risks for a steeper forecast downgrade

55 56

30

-01

54

43

35 35 36 35 3439

36

29

-30

58

-40

-30

-20

-10

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

IMF World GDP Growth Rate ()

Data Source SunTrust IAG International Monetary Fund

IMF World Economic Growth Projections

Forecast

Newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 flat-lined in many regions but total cases have reached over 3 million and known deaths related to the virus have reached over 200000

Many countries are seeing accelerating death tolls especially countries in emerging markets

The US the country with the highest number of confirmed cases accounts for nearly one-third of global daily deaths New cases have begun to plateau albeit at a higher level than previously projected

Data Source SunTrust IAG CDC WHO Worldometercom data through April 29 2020

Trajectory of COVID-19 Cases By Select Countries

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69Days Since 100th Case

Covid-19 Cases by Select Countries

US Italy Spain France Singapore S Korea Canada Japan

US Economic Snapshot from the Investment Advisory Group

I N D I C AT O R T R E N D W H AT W E rsquo R E W AT C H I N G

US Economy Incoming US economic data largely reflects the COVID-19 lockdowns A US recession is our base case with most of the pain concentrated in the first half of 2020 while the recovery starts in the second half as the economy gradually reopens

Consumer Spending Overall spending has declined though now bifurcated into essential such as grocery and medical-related spending that has spiked higher and non-essential which collapsed when stores closed

Residential Housing COVID-19 lockdowns have halted home-selling activity there will be a flurry of pent up existing home sales activity once courthouses reopen but that will likely be temporary

Business Spending Business spending aside from aircraft remained resilient through March as essential businesses scrambled to stay open however many crude oil projects will stop due to the oil price crash

Interest Rates The Fed cutting rates to zero and the unlimited bond-buying program (quantitative easing) should ease financial conditions and debt servicing for businesses and consumers through the downturn

Manufacturing Global COVID-19 lockdowns have negatively impacted supply chains worldwide which will likely persist for several months beyond when countries and US states reopen

Inflation Recessionary forces particularly within housing such as rents and home prices and the collapse in oil prices will pull down consumer and wholesale prices

Employment (Jobs) Government stimulus such as the CARES Act and payroll protection program should help but over 30 million jobless claims in 6 weeks will lead to a massive spike in the unemployment rate

pPositive qNegative DNeutral Mixed

V-Shaped(Quick Downturn

amp Snapback)

U-Shaped(Brief Recession Slower Recovery)

L- or W-Shaped(Longer Recession

Sluggish Return)

Public Health

bull Perfect adherence to stay-at-home bans

bull Minimal disruption of health care system

bull Fast emergence of treatment and vaccine

bull Fast ramp up of critical medical equipment

bull General obedience of social distancing

bull Excellent health care outcome ldquobend the curverdquo

bull Emergence of treatment or vaccine within 6 months

bull Relatively quick ramp up of critical medical equipment

bull Ignoring of social distancingbull Hospitals overwhelmedbull Boomerang reinfections when

bans liftedbull No treatment or vaccine and

virus mutation bull Insufficient supply of critical

medical equipment

Monetary amp Fiscal Policy

Actions

There has already been massive monetary (Federal Reserve) and fiscal (Congress) action in both scale (as of GDP) and speed (concurrent with the onset of the recession)―more than double what was done during the Great Financial Crisis also likely to see follow-on actions albeit smaller by both in the coming months to support the economy

Economy

bull 1Q20 and 2Q20 as the only quarters of contracting US GDP

bull Activity rebounds quicklybull Unemployment rate stays

under 7

bull US GDP contracts for 3quarters (1Q20 and 2Q20 and part of 3Q)

bull Activity recovers limited consumer behavior changes

bull Jump in unemployment rate to 15

bull US GDP contracts for more than 4 quarters coupled with global sluggishness

bull Dramatic changes in consumer behavior

bull Sustained spike in unemployment rate to 20

Source SunTrust IAG Gross domestic product (GDP)

Possible US Economic Scenarios

Our Base Case Our Worst CaseOur Best Case

Given the tremendous amount of uncertainty there is a wide range of possible economic results The current median consensus projects a sharp slowdown concentrated in the second quarter of 2020 with improvement in the third and fourth quarters

For context the worst single quarter since the end of World War II was -10 which occurred in the first quarter of 1958 during the 1957-1958 recession

-273

90 69

-48

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Median Consensus

Actual Results

Data Source SunTrust IAG Bloomberg Consensus as of May 1 2020

US Economy Wide Range of Potential Outcomes

US governors are beginning the process of reopening following roughly six weeks under stay-at-home orders Most states will be using a phased approach to gradually reopen

By mid-May more than half of the US population will be open or partially open

0

25

50

75

100

23-M

ar

30-M

ar

6-Ap

r

13-A

pr

20-A

pr

27-A

pr

4-M

ay

11-M

ay

18-M

ay

25-M

ay

1-Ju

n

8-Ju

n

15-J

un

US Population Under Stay-At-Home Orders

Ban Lifting TBD

Partial Reopen

Full Stay-At-HomeBan

Sources SunTrust IAG Census Bureau News Reports (NY Times Politico) as of April 27 2020

US Economy More Than Half of Americans Will Be Free to Resume Some Activities by Mid-May

Given that consumers accounts for about 70 of US economic activity the pace of their return is key to the speed of the recovery

Recent polling suggests that most Americans are willing to return to going to dinner or the office fairly quickly However there appears to be more reluctance to resume travel-related and large social gatherings or sporting events within the first few months

0

20

40

60

80

100

Stay at Hotel Fly on a Plane Go to Dinner Go to SportingEvent

HostAttendLarge Social

Gathering

Go to the Office

Once the government provides information that the spread of the virus is flattening how long will it take you to do each of the following

Within 30 Days Within 3 Months Within 6 Months Within 1 Year

Data Source SunTrust IAG Harris Poll taken between April 18 and April 20 2020

US Economy When Will Consumers Return

02 03

33

6966

52

44

38

US Initial Jobless Claims (in millions)

Job Data Worsens But Initial Claims PeakedAll US economic data will collapse especially job data reflecting the COVID-19 lockdowns However it appears that initial jobless claims peaked at the end of March before the government-assistance programs were available

New York(175789)

California(730283)

Michigan(307242)

Pennsylvania(273395)

Ohio(183528)

Georgia(125314)

New Jersey(143819)

Illinois(119796)

Florida(74205)

Texas(60968)

1

Change from Peak in Initial Jobless Claims Top 10 States

Data Source SunTrust IAG Bloomberg Data through April 25 2020 Top 10 states in terms of number of initial claims peak relative to each statesrsquo respective peak which varies by state

The $20 trillion fiscal plan known as the CARES Act is more than double the fiscal plan enacted during the Great Financial Crisis on a dollar basis

More importantly this time around the stimulus is almost concurrent with the onset of the recession versus taking about 10 months to pass during the financial crisis of 2008

$787 Billion

$20 Trillion

54

92

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

$3000

Great Financial Crisis (2007-2009) Current

US Fiscal Package Comparison Dwarfs Financial Crisis Fiscal Stimulus Percentage of GDP

Data Source SunTrust IAG Bureau of Economic Analysis Congressional Budget Office The CARES Act is the Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security Act

US Fiscal Response Extraordinary in Size amp Speed

Unemployment insurance benefits have sharply increased as a result of the recently-passed fiscal stimulus bill known as the CARES Act The data indicates many industries will see close to a full replacement of income for workers using unemployment insurance

However this is for cash wages only For example many restaurant workers do not receive the federal minimum wage of $725 per hour Moreover minimum wage laws differ greatly by state and some minimum wage provisions do not apply to tipped employees in many states

Still the CARES Act provides a much needed buffer to many workers

0

50

100

150

200

250

Unemployment Insurance (UI) Benefits as a Percentage of Average Weekly Earnings by Industry

Pre-2020 UI Benefits Current with CARES Act

Source Renaissance Macro Research (Renmac) SunTrust IAG Haver Percentage of average weekly earnings per industry The CARES Act is the Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security Act

Income Replacement Is Key Feature of CARES Act

17

8

15

9 10

15

2119

5 5

3330

34

14 15

US Eurozone Japan UK China

Major Countries Monetary amp Fiscal Stimulus as of GDP

Central BankLiquidity Injection

Govt FiscalStimulus

CombinedStimulus

Aggressive and unprecedented fiscal and monetary action is occurring around the globe Fiscal and monetary support cannot undo the economic impact of this health crisis but it can help blunt the economic downside

Source Cornerstone Macro SunTrust IAG

Global Fiscal amp Monetary Response Huge

Equities

After the sharp market snapback the near-term riskreward has become mixed However massive stimulus and the gradual reopening of businesses should help the economy find a bottom over the coming months Equities still appear favorable relative to most other assets on a 12-month and longer-term basis

Data Source SunTrust IAG

Stock Market Outlook Bear Versus Bull Case

BEAR CASE V S BULL CASEEconomy is in recession Markets tend to bottom well before a recession is over

and economy expected to trough this summer

Earnings have much more downside Markets already expect a large earnings decline

Long-term technical trends still down Sentiment indicators and investor positioning remain depressed which is a positive from a contrarian view

Uncertainty is high Unprecedented stimulus helping to reduce outlier risk

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)

Trading Days From Peak to Trough

Magnitude amp Duration of Major SampP DeclinesSince 1950

1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020

Source Strategas SunTrust IAG Bloomberg

Coronavirus Shock Led to a Bear Market at a Record Pace Snapback Has Also Been Sharp

2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median

SampP 500 Returns Around Recession

Peak to Trough Decline 1-Year Later From Trough 2-Years Later From Trough

With a peak-to-trough decline of 34 stocks were pricing in a recession at the March low Stocks have bottomed five months on average prior to the end of the recession and the subsequent rebounds tend to be sharp Recent market action is consistent with our base case view that economic activity should find a trough later this summer

Past performance does not guarantee future resultsData Source SunTrust IAG FactSet NBER

Stocks Were Pricing In a Recession at March Low

Beyond stimulus a key reason the SampP 500 has held up despite weak economic data is sector composition The SampP 500 has a much greater weighting to growth and defensive sectors these sectors are holding up better on a price and earnings basis relative to cyclical areas that are down more but have a smaller weight in the index

Sectors include mix of growth defense andor cyclical exposureData Source SunTrust IAG Bloomberg

Making Sense of Perceived Disconnect Between Equity Market and Economy

SampP 500 Sector

SampP 500Sector Weight

Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS

Growth amp Defensive SectorsTechnology 26 -13 -5Health Care 15 -7 -3Communication Services 11 -13 -12Consumer Staples 8 -11 -3Utilities 3 -21 0Average -13 -5

Cyclical Sectors Financials 11 -30 -30Industrials 8 -27 -31Energy 3 -44 -97Materials 2 -18 -13Average -30 -43

OtherConsumer Discretionary 10 -14 -29Real Estate 3 -22 -5Average -18 -17

SampP 500 Sector Weightings

GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13

The equity risk premium (ERP) indicates stocks remain attractive on a relative basis Even if we assume SampP 500 forward earnings are reduced by 20 from current estimates the ERP would remain well above the 300 level that has historically been consistent with positive 12-month average returns

47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100

-100 to 0 0 to 100 100 to 200200 to 300 GreaterThan 300

Average 12-Month Forward SampP 500 Returns by ERP Tranche (1960-Current)

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20

SampP 500 Equity Risk PremiumEarnings Yield Minus 10-Year Treasury Yield

Past performance does not guarantee future results The equity risk premium (ERP) compares the earnings yield of stocks (inverse of the PE ratio) to the 10-year US Treasury yield ERP is quantified in basis points (bps) One basis point = 001Source Strategas SunTrust IAG

Stocks Attractive Relative to Bonds and Already Discounting Lower Earnings

Current

Average = 62

Stocks More Attractive

Stocks Less Attractive

454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16

SampP 500 2016

The typical pattern following past sharp market declines is a snapback rally which then transitions to a volatile trading range The unprecedented stimulus actions greatly reduce the probability of a retest of the March low

Past performance does not guarantee future resultsData Source SunTrust IAG FactSet

After Shock Periods Volatility Tends to Stay High

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec

SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12

SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15

SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500

50-Day Moving AverageResistance Band 2850-3025

The SampP 500 is facing a band of potential resistance in roughly the 2850-3025 range as investors who were in a losing position seek to use the rebound to reduce positions Conversely markets should be well supported on any pullbacks toward the 2450-2600 range Investors who had excess cash andor were looking for a retest of the recent low were likely caught off guard by the speed of the market rally and many will be anxious to deploy cash on any pullback

Data Source SunTrust IAG FactSet

Technical Perspective Transitioning to a Range

200-Day Moving Average

Support Band 2450-2600

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500

Past performance does not guarantee future resultsData Source SunTrust IAG AAII FactSet

Investor Sentiment Remains Depressed a Positive From a Contrarian Standpoint

10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears

Despite the sharp rally in stocks the percentage of retail investors who are bearish reached a seven-year high in late April This suggests investors remain skeptical and expectations are low a positive from a contrarian standpoint

SampP 500 Time to Recover Previous Peak Following Bear Markets

Date of Peak Date of Trough

Duration of Decline (Months)

Price Decline

Date Market Reclaimed

Peak

Months to ReclaimPrior Peak

(Measured From Prior High)


(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28

Bear markets and the subsequent recoveries have varied If it took the SampP 500 the historical median of 26 months to reclaim its peak that would equate to an average annualized compound price return of 72 (this would be higher with dividends) from Aprilrsquos closing price


Time It Has Taken for Stocks to Reclaim Prior Peak Following Bear Market

75

84 88

95 100

Rolling 1-Year Basis Rolling 3-Year Basis Rolling 5-Year Basis Rolling 10-Year Basis Rolling 20-Year Basis

of Time US Stocks Have Positive Return(1926 ndash Present)

Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future ResultsData Source SunTrust IAG Morningstar data as of 4302020US Stocks Represented by the IA SBBI US Large Stock Total Return Index

Stocks Tend to Rise Over Longer Time Horizons

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020

Global EarningsIndexed at 100 as of 12312017

US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE

Regional Valuations amp Earnings

We hold a US equity bias and expect the US to maintain a premium valuation relative to the globe US profits were stronger relative to other regions prior to the decline and should rebound quicker given US stocksrsquo blue chip bias and sector composition geared more toward defensive and growth-oriented areas such as tech and healthcare

197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM

Current Forward PE and Range Since 2003

Average Current

Data Source SunTrust IAG FactSet MSCIPast performance does not guarantee future resultsEarnings are next twelve months earnings in local currencyUS = MSCI USA Japan = MSCI Japan EAFE = MSCI EAFE EM = MSCI EM UK = MSCI UK Europe = MSCI EM

We maintain a US equity bias given the uneven and elongated global economic recovery we envision

The US tends to have larger allocations to growth sectors such as technology healthcare and communications Conversely international developed markets have low tech exposure and heavier weightings in value sectors such as financials and industrials Emerging markets also have large financial weightings as well as greater exposure to materials and energy

50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK

International Developed Markets

Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US

Cyclical ExposureFinancials Industrial Energy amp Materials

Combined Sector Weight

Data Source SunTrust IAG MSCISector weights as of March 31 2020US = MSCI USA China = MSCI China Japan = MSCI Japan Germany = MSCI Germany Emerging Markets = MSCI EM International Developed Markets = MSCI EAFE UK = MSCI UKPast performance does not guarantee future results

US Markets More Defensive than Global Markets

Near-term global economic trends remain weak and long-term activity will be weighed down by slowing demographics trends higher debt levels and the transition to more of a service economy

While we expect to see sharp cyclical periods of value outperformance as we saw in late April and tactical opportunities investors are likely to continue to pay a premium for companies that can produce strong sales and earnings growth

5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Large Growth Relative to Value

Data Source MorningstarFama-French Growth amp Value return series used from August 1927 through December 1978 thereafter Russell 1000 Growth amp Value series used

Growthrsquos Outperformance Appears Less Extended Relative to Value From a Long-Term Perspective

We hold a large cap bias as these companies should navigate the current backdrop better given stronger balance sheets and profitability trends However the underperformance of small caps has moved to the greatest extreme since 2000 thus we still advocate a small cap position as a great amount of bad news is already priced into shares

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20

Small Cap Minus Large Cap Returns 6 Month Rolling Performance

Small Cap Outperforming

0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20

Percent of Non-EarnersLarge Caps vs Small Caps

Source Strategas SunTrust IAG gray shading represents recessionsLarge Cap = Russell 1000 Small Cap = Russell 2000

Maintain Large Cap Bias but Small Capsrsquo Underperformance at Extreme

Small Cap Underperforming

Average

Small Caps

Large Caps

Following the sharp market decline we have seen sharp snapback rallies in some of the more cyclical value-focused areas which were hit the hardest However we see more sustainable long-term leadership in growth areas such as technology and healthcare

Data Source SunTrust IAG FactSet A rising line denotes improving sector performance relative to the SampP 500 and vice versa Past performance does not guarantee future results

US Sector Relative Price Trends

95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20

Communications Services

85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20

Consumer Discretionary

758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate

Cyclical Sectors Defensive Sectors

Fixed Income

US Treasury yields remain at historically low levels The Federal Reserversquos (Fed) zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) will remain in place for the foreseeable future and will anchor short rates The global economic full-stop disinflationary pressures and robust demand for quality assets will continue to suppress intermediate and long US yields in the months ahead

Data Source SunTrust IAG Bloomberg

10-Year US Treasury Yield

399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


The US Treasury curve held relatively steady in April Longer-duration fixed income slightly outperformed the front end of the curve which was anchored at near-zero levels by the Fedrsquos ultra-accommodative rate setting As US economic activity slowly (and unevenly) resumes over the next several months we expect to see US rate volatility rise and the curve steepen modestly


US Treasury Yield Curve

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr

US Yield Curve Comparison

April 30 2020

March 31 2020

While US Treasury yields are near their lowest levels in history they still offer a positive yield which is attractive relative to other highly-rated sovereigns sporting negative yields such as those from Germany Denmark and Switzerland

$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Foreign Holdings of US Treasuries Are Rising

US 10-Year Treasury Yield (l-axis)

Foreign Holdings of US Treasury Securities (r-axis)

Data Source SunTrust IAG Haver FactSet foreign holdings of US Treasury securities as of 22020

US Treasuries Remain Safe Haven Asset Choice

The collapse in consumer demand and tumbling oil prices fueled a sharp drop in inflation expectations Fiscal and monetary stimulus has helped inflation expectations rebound from the lows

We expect inflation to remain relatively modest near term given our expectation for a gradual economic recovery a high unemployment rate and a consumer savings rate that is likely to remain higher after the crisis

Data Source SunTrust IAG BloombergThe breakeven is the difference in yield between a nominal Treasury and the same maturity Treasury inflation-protected security and shows the implied inflation expectation over the maturity period

US Inflation Expectations Bouncing from Depressed Levels but Should Remain Relatively Low

-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200

Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20

2- 5- amp 10-Year US Breakevens (BE)

2 Year BE 5 Year BE 10 Year BE

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur

Current Yield vs 10-Year Range

Range Current Yield

While the opportunity has diminished from last month we see relative value in investment grade and high yield corporate bonds where there is a measure of support from the Fed

Data Source SunTrust IAG FactSet BofA yield to worst shown except for preferreds (yield to maturity) and convertibles (current yield)US 10-Yr Treasury = Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Bellwethers (10 Yr) US Core Taxable = Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Municipals = Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond 1-15 Year US Corporates = Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate IG MBS = Bloomberg Barclays US MBS Intl Dev Mkts = ICE BofA Global Government ex US (USD Unhedged) HY Corp = ICE BofA US High Yield HY Muni = Bloomberg Barclays Municipal High Yield Preferreds = ICE BofA Fixed Rate Preferred Convertibles = ICE BofA US Convertible EM Hard Cur = JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified EM Loc Cur = JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Past performance does not guarantee future results

Relative Value in Fixed Income

High Quality Higher Risk

The Fedrsquos unlimited purchases of US Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have pushed its balance sheet to all-time highs and improved market functioning The Fedrsquos corporate and municipal lending facilities are in their nascent stages but will become a larger proportion of the central bankrsquos portfolio composition


Fed Balance Sheet Moves to a Record amp Composition Set to Broaden

$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020

US Federal Reserve Balance Sheet ($ Trillion)

US Treasury Securities Mortgage-Backed Securities Loans Other

Fed intervention that began in late March supported further investment grade and high yield corporate spread tightening in April While the buying opportunity we highlighted over the past two months has diminished somewhat spreads remain elevated on a historical basis

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

IG and HY Corporate Credit Spreads

IG Corporate HY Corporate

Data Source SunTrust IAG BloombergUS Corporate = Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate IG HY Corporate = Bloomberg Barclays US High Yield Corporate

Corporate Credit Spreads Have Tightened Sharply but Are Still Attractive on a Relative Basis

$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized

Investment Grade Corporate Bond Issuance (in Trillions)

As US companies scramble for liquidity cushions to help ride out the pandemic investment grade corporate bond issuance has exploded in 2020 At its current pace 2020rsquos new supply could double the previous record set in 2017 Thus far the large supply is being met easily by investor demand


Fed Intervention Aids Supply and Demand of Investment Grade Corporates

After rallying in early April municipals fell relative to their taxable counterparts Ongoing debates on fiscal support coupled with a solid supply of new issuance weighed on the market We are focused on strong state general obligation bonds and essential revenue bonds such as water sewer and power

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1 Year 3 Year 7 Year 10 Year 20 Year

Muni Yields as a of US Treasury Yieldsat Different Maturities

4302019 12312019 4302020

Data Source SunTrust IAG Bloomberg Interest income may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax Other state and local taxes may apply

Muni Relative Valuations Very Attractive but Headwinds Persist

CONTRIBUTORS

Chief Market Strategist Managing DirectorPortfolio amp Market Strategy

KEITH LERNER CFA CMT

Director US Macro Strategist Portfolio amp Market Strategy

MICHAEL SKORDELES AIF

Director Global Macro Strategist Portfolio amp Market Strategy

EYLEMSENYUZ

Director Portfolio amp Market Strategy

SABRINA BOWENS-RICHARD CFA CAIA

Managing Director Fixed Income Strategies

ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA

Head of Fixed Income Strategy amp Services BBampT Scott amp Stringfellow

CHIP HUGHEY CFA


SHELLY SIMPSON CFA CAIA

IAG Associate Portfolio amp Market Strategy

DYLANKASE CFA

Chief Wealth Market Strategist BBampT Wealth

JEFF TERRELL CFA

Research Analyst Portfolio amp Market Strategy

EMILYNOVICK CFA CFPreg

INVESTMENT ADVISORY GROUP

Oliver Merten CFA CFPreg

Managing DirectorErin HoganManager

Adam White CFASr Research Analyst

Charles EastSr Research Analyst

Scott Yuschak CFASr Research Analyst

Aki Pampush CFAManaging Director

W Moultrie Dotterer CFAManaging Director BBampT Scott amp Stringfellow

Charles ReddingEquity Product Manager BBampT Scott amp Stringfellow

Stephen Davenport CFADirector Derivatives

Vernon Plack CFA CMTDir Of Private Client Research BBampT Scott amp Stringfellow

John HolecekAssociate

Andrew Richman CTFAManaging Director

Chip Hughey CFAHead of Fixed Income and Strategy Services BBampT Scott amp Stringfellow

Shelly Simpson CFA CAIADirector

Sabrina Bowens-Richard CFA CAIA Director

Emily Novick CFA CFPreg

Research Analyst

Mike Skordeles AIFreg

Director US Macro Strategist

Eylem SenyuzDirector Global Macro Strategist

Dylan Kase CFAAssociate


Jeff Terrell CFASenior Vice President Chief Wealth Market Strategist BBampT Wealth

PORTFOLIO amp MARKET STRATEGY

EQUITY amp DERIVATIVES STRATEGIES

Spencer BoggessManaging Director

Len LebovDirector

Mohan BadgujarDirector

Sejal PatelDirector

Haley LawsonAssociate

Ryan Taylor CFA CAIAAssociate

Noah Harris CFADirector

Colin Fox CTFAAssociate

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS RESEARCH

Ric Mayfield CFA CAIAManaging Director

Tracey DevineDirector

Chris Hett CFAResearch Analyst

Alison Majors CFA CFPreg

Director

Diane SchmidtResearch Analyst

Kelly Frohsin CIMAreg CFPreg

Director

Thomas TomanResearch Analyst

Benardo RichardsonAssociate

TRADITIONAL MANAGER EVALUATION

Ravi UgaleManaging Director

Will RepathDirector

PRIVATE EQUITY amp CREDIT RESEARCH

INVESTMENT COMMUNICATIONS

Ernest Dawal Jr CFAChief Investment Officer

FIXED INCOME STRATEGIES

Garrett DavisAssociate

Glenn Dellinger CFAAnalyst

Zachary NataleTrader

Wayne M Pettway CFADirector

Stephen Freilich CFADirector

Rich Petruzzo CFAPortfolio Trader

John GangiPortfolio Trader

Important DisclosuresThis material was provided by SunTrust Private Wealth Management for use by BBampT Sterling AdvisorsAdvisory managed account programs entail risks including possible loss of principal and may not be suitable for all investors Please speak to your advisor to request a firm brochure which includes program details including risks fees and expensesInternational investments are subject to special risks such as political unrest economic instability and currency fluctuations Emerging Markets Investing in the securities of such companies and countries involves certain considerations not usually associated with investing in developed countries including unstable political and economic conditions adverse geopolitical developments price volatility lack of liquidity and fluctuations in currency exchange rateSunTrust Private Wealth Management is a marketing name used by Truist Financial Corporation and the following affiliates Banking products and services including loans and deposit accounts are provided by SunTrust Bank and Branch Banking and Trust Company both now Truist Bank Member FDIC Trust and investment management services are provided by SunTrust Bank and Branch Banking and Trust Company both now Truist Bank and SunTrust Delaware Trust Company Securities brokerage accounts and or insurance (including annuities) are offered by SunTrust Investment Services Inc BBampT Securities LLC and PJ Robb Variable Corp which are SEC registered broker-dealers members FINRA SIPC and a licensed insurance agency where applicable Investment advisory services are offered by SunTrust Advisory Services Inc GFO Advisory Services LLC BBampT Securities LLC Sterling Capital Management LLC Precept Advisory Group LLC and BBampT Institutional Investment Advisors Inc each SEC registered investment advisers BBampT Sterling Advisors BBampT Investments and BBampT Scott amp Stringfellow are divisions of BBampT Securities LLC Mutual fund products are advised by Sterling Capital Management LLCWhile this information is believed to be accurate SunTrust Banks Inc now Truist Financial Corporation including its affiliates does not guarantee the accuracy completeness or timeliness of or otherwise endorse these analyses or market dataThe opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable but Truist Financial Corporation makes no representation or guarantee as to their timeliness accuracy or completeness or for their fitness for any particular purpose The information contained herein does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security company or industry involved This material is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security Opinions and information expressed herein are subject to change without notice STIS andor its affiliates including your Advisor may have issued materials that are inconsistent with or may reach different conclusions than those represented in this commentary and all opinions and information are believed to be reflective of judgments and opinions as of the date that material was originally published STIS is under no obligation to ensure that other materials are brought to the attention of any recipient of this commentary Comments regarding tax implications are informational only Truist and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice You should consult your individual tax or legal professional beforetaking any action that may have tax or legal consequencesInvestments involve risk and an investor may incur either profits or losses Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance STISSTAS shall accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this material nor shall STISSTAS treat any recipient of this material as a customer or client simply by virtue of the receipt of this material The information herein is for persons residing in the United States of America only and is not intended for any person in any other jurisdiction Investors may be prohibited in certain states from purchasing some over-the-counter securities mentioned herein The information contained in this material is produced and copyrighted by Truist Financial Corporation and any unauthorized use duplication redistribution or disclosure is prohibited by law STISSTASrsquos officers employees agents andor affiliates may have positions in securities options rights or warrants mentioned or discussed in this materialAsset classes are represented by the following indexes An investment cannot be made directly into an index SampP 500 Index is comprised of 500 widely-held securities considered to be representative of the stock market in generalEquity is represented by the MSCI ACWI captures large and mid cap representation across 23 Developed Markets (DM) and 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries With 2757 constituents the index covers approximately 85 of the global investable equity opportunity set Fixed Income is represented by the Barclays Aggregate Index The index measures the performance of the US investment grade bond market The index invests in a wide spectrum of public investment-grade taxable fixed income securities in the United States ndash including government corporate and international dollar-denominated bonds as well as mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities all with maturities of more than 1 year Commodities are represented by the Bloomberg Commodity Index which is a composition of futures contracts on physical commodities It currently includes a diversified mix of commodities in five sectors including energy agriculture industrial metals precious metals and livestock The weightings of the commodities are calculated in accordance with rules that ensure that the relative proportion of each of the underlying individual commodities reflects its global economic significance and market liquidity Cash is represented by the ICE BofAML US Treasury Bill 3 Month Index which is a subset of the ICE BofAML 0-1 Year US Treasury Index including all securities with a remaining term to final maturity less than 3 months US Large Cap Equity is represented by the SampP 500 Index which is an unmanaged index comprised of 500 widely-held securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general US Mid Cap is represented by the SampP MidCap 400reg provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies The index which is distinct from the large-cap SampP 500reg measures the performance of mid-sized companies reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment

Important DisclosuresUS Small Cap Core Equity is represented by the Russell 2000 Index which is a measure of the performance of the small-cap segment of the US equity universe The Russell 2000 is a subset of the Russell 3000reg Index representing approximately 10 of the total market capitalization of that index It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membershipInternational Developed Markets is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index is an equity index which captures large and mid cap representation across 21 Developed Markets countries around the world excluding the US and Canada With 921 constituents the index covers approximately 85 of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country Emerging Markets is represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid cap representation across 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries With 1125 constituents the index covers approximately 85 of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country Growth is represented by the Russell 1000reg Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000reg Index companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values Value is represented by the Russell 1000reg Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000reg Index companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values US Government Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays US Government Index which is an unmanaged index comprised of all publicly issued non-convertible domestic debt of the US government or any agency thereof or any quasi-federal corporation and of corporate debt guaranteed by the US government US Mortgage-Backed Securities are represented by the US Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Index which covers agency mortgage-backed pass-through securities (both fixed-rate and hybrid ARM) issued by Ginnie Mae (GNMA) Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FHLMC) US Investment Grade Corporate Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Investment Grade Index which is an unmanaged index consisting of publicly issued US Corporate and specified foreign debentures and secured notes that are rated investment grade (Baa3BBB- or higher) by at least two ratings agencies have at least one year to final maturity and have at least $250 million par amount outstanding US High Yield Corp is represented by the ICE BofAML US High Yield Index tracks the performance of below investment grade but not in default US dollar denominated corporate bonds publicly issued in the US domestic market and includes issues with a credit rating of BBB or below as rated by Moodyrsquos and SampP Floating Rate Bank Loans are represented by the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index The index represents tradable senior-secured US-dollar-denominated non-investment-grade loans Global Equity is represented by the MSCI All World Country (ACWI) Index which is defined as a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets The MSCI ACWI Index consists of 48 country indices comprising 24 developed markets countries and 24 emerging markets countries Emerging Markets Equity is represented by the MSCI EM Index which is defined as a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets countries Intermediate Term Municipal Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Blend 1-15 Year (1-17 Yr) is an unmanaged index of municipal bonds with a minimum credit rating of at least Baa issued as part of a deal of at least $50 million that have a maturity value of at least $5 million and a maturity range of 12 to 17 years US Core Taxable Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade US dollar-denominated fixed-rate taxable bond market The index includes Treasuries government-related and corporate securities MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs) ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency) US Government Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays US Government Index which is an unmanaged index comprised of all publicly issued non-convertible domestic debt of the US government or any agency thereof or any quasi-federal corporation and of corporate debt guaranteed by the US government US IG Corporate Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Bond Index measures the investment grade fixed-rate taxable corporate bond market It includes USD denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-US industrial utility and financial issuers US High Yield Corporate Bonds are represented by the ICE BofAML US HY Master Index which is an index that tracks US dollar denominated debt below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market

Important DisclosuresSampP 500 Information Technology Index ndash a capitalization-weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the SampP 500 that are classified as members of the information technology sector based on GICSreg classificationSampP 500 Financials Index ndash a capitalization weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the SampP 500 that are classified as members of the financials sector based on GICSreg classificationSampP 500 Energy Index ndash a capitalization weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the SampP 500 that are classified as members of the energy sector based on GICSreg classificationSampP 500 Materials Index ndash a capitalization weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the SampP 500 that are classified as members of the materials sector based on GICSreg classificationSampP 500 Industrials Index ndash a capitalization weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the SampP 500 that are classified as members of the industrials sector based on GICSreg classificationSampP 500 Consumer Discretionary Index ndash a capitalization weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the SampP 500 that are classified as members of the consumer discretionary sector based on GICSreg classificationSampP 500 Communication Services Index ndash a capitalization weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the SampP 500 that are classified as members of the communication services sector based on GICSreg classificationSampP 500 Utilities Index ndash a capitalization weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the SampP 500 that are classified as members of the utilities sector based on GICSreg classificationSampP 500 Consumer Staples Index ndash a capitalization weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the SampP 500 that are classified as members of the consumer staples sector based on GICSreg classificationSampP 500 Health Care Index ndash a capitalization weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the SampP 500 that are classified as members of the health care sector based on GICSreg classificationSampP 500 Real Estate Index ndash a capitalization weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the SampP 500 that are classified as members of the real estate sector based on GICSreg classification

copy2020 Truist Financial Corporation BBampT SunTrustreg the SunTrust logo and Truist are service marks of Truist Financial Corporation All rights reserved

CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11





Job Data Worsens But Initial Claims Peaked




Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47

Important Disclosures




Less Attractive More Attractive Expected Return Expected Risk

Asset Classes Equity Global Equity Market Valuation SampP 500 MSCI ACWI MSCI EAFE MSCI EM

Equity l Global Equity 675 168 Current Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio 203x 166x 143x 122x

Fixed Income l US Large Cap Equity 675 152 10-Year Average PE Ratio 150x 140x 132x 110x

Commodities l US Small Cap Equity 750 201 10-Year High PE Ratio 205x 173x 163x 135x

Cash l Intl Developed Markets Equity 650 185 10-Year Low PE Ratio 100x 96x 91x 82x

Less Attractive More Attractive Intl Developed Markets Small Cap 700 192

Global Equity Emerging Markets Equity 725 244

US Large Cap l Expected Return Expected Risk

US Mid Cap l Fixed Income

US Small Cap l Intermediate-Term Municipals 225 35

International Developed Markets l US Core Taxable Bonds 250 33

Intl Developed Markets Small Caps l US Government Bonds 200 39

Emerging Markets (EM) l US IG Corporate Bonds 350 60

Growth amp Value Style l US HY Corporate Bonds 500 100

Less Attractive More Attractive

US Fixed Income Key IAG 2020 Forecasts

US Government l 2020 Global GDP Forecast -15 `

US Mortgage-Backed Securities l US GDP Range -54 - 00

US Investment Grade Corporate (IG) l Year-End Fed Funds Rate Range 000 - 025

US High Yield Corporates (HY) l 10-Yr US Treasury Yield 025 - 150

Floating-Rate Bank Loans l SampP 500 12-Month Forward EPS $14522

Duration l Bloomberg Consensus FactSet Estimates

Tactical Positioning (3-12 Months) Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions (10 Yr)







Less Attractive More Attractive Emerging Markets Equity 725 244

Global Equity Expected Return Expected Risk

US Large Cap l Fixed Income

US Mid Cap l Intermediate-Term Municipals 225 35

US Small Cap l US Core Taxable Bonds 250 33

International Developed Markets l US Government Bonds 200 39




US Fixed Income Key 2019 Forecasts

US Government l 2019 Global GDP Consensus Forecast 31

US Mortgage-Backed Securities l IAG Forecast US GDP Range 230 - 240

US Investment Grade Corporate (IG) l IAG Forecast Fed Funds Rate Range 150 - 175

US High Yield Corporates (HY) l IAG Forecast 10-Yr US Treasury Yield 150 - 200

Floating-Rate Bank Loans l SampP 500 PE Ratio Range 15x - 18x

Duration l SampP 500 12-Month Forward EPS $1770

Bloomberg Consensus FactSet Estimates

















































TABLE OF CONTENTS

Monthly Letter

Asset Class Returns

House Views

1 HOUSE VIEWS 3 EQUITIES

4 F IXED INCOMEUS amp Global Snapshots

2 ECONOMY

Bear vs Bull Case




House Views

MONTHLYLETTER


ldquo






Warmly




107

128

65

92

142

127

88

18

06

06

52

-07

38

14

-15

29

Global (MSCI ACWI)
















MTD ()-129

-93

-178

-166

-197

-241

-167

50

35

88

14

-12

-98

04

-245

-42

Global (MSCI ACWI)
















YTD ()-50

09

-113

-120

-149

-196

-83

108

78

141

99

24

-53

44

NA

-232

08

Global (MSCI ACWI)
















1 Year ()

Fixed Income

Equity

Non-Traditional





May 4 2020




Expected

Return

Expected

Risk

$14522

Less

Attractive

More

Attractive

-15-54 - 00

000 - 025025 - 150

Less

Attractive

More

Attractive


Less

Attractive

More

Attractive

Expected

Return

Expected

Risk



110x205x 173x 163x 135x150x 140x 132x

100x 96x 91x 82x


Intl Dev Small Caps


Intl Dev Small Caps

Economy
















55 56

30

-01

54

43

35 35 36 35 3439

36

29

-30

58

-40

-30

-20

-10

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21




Forecast






100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000
















amp Snapback)



Sluggish Return)

Public Health












medical equipment


Actions


Economy



under 7












-273

90 69

-48

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Median Consensus

Actual Results





0

25

50

75

100

23-M

ar

30-M

ar

6-Ap

r

13-A

pr

20-A

pr

27-A

pr

4-M

ay

11-M

ay

18-M

ay

25-M

ay

1-Ju

n

8-Ju

n

15-J

un


Ban Lifting TBD

Partial Reopen






0

20

40

60

80

100



Gathering

Go to the Office





02 03

33

6966

52

44

38



New York(175789)

California(730283)

Michigan(307242)


Ohio(183528)

Georgia(125314)

New Jersey(143819)

Illinois(119796)

Florida(74205)

Texas(60968)

1





$787 Billion

$20 Trillion

54

92

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

$3000








0

50

100

150

200

250





17

8

15

9 10

15

2119

5 5

3330

34

14 15




Govt FiscalStimulus

CombinedStimulus




Equities









40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47




































































































House Views

MONTHLYLETTER


ldquo






Warmly




107

128

65

92

142

127

88

18

06

06

52

-07

38

14

-15

29

Global (MSCI ACWI)
















MTD ()-129

-93

-178

-166

-197

-241

-167

50

35

88

14

-12

-98

04

-245

-42

Global (MSCI ACWI)
















YTD ()-50

09

-113

-120

-149

-196

-83

108

78

141

99

24

-53

44

NA

-232

08

Global (MSCI ACWI)
















1 Year ()

Fixed Income

Equity

Non-Traditional





May 4 2020




Expected

Return

Expected

Risk

$14522

Less

Attractive

More

Attractive

-15-54 - 00

000 - 025025 - 150

Less

Attractive

More

Attractive


Less

Attractive

More

Attractive

Expected

Return

Expected

Risk



110x205x 173x 163x 135x150x 140x 132x

100x 96x 91x 82x


Intl Dev Small Caps


Intl Dev Small Caps

Economy
















55 56

30

-01

54

43

35 35 36 35 3439

36

29

-30

58

-40

-30

-20

-10

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21




Forecast






100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000
















amp Snapback)



Sluggish Return)

Public Health












medical equipment


Actions


Economy



under 7












-273

90 69

-48

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Median Consensus

Actual Results





0

25

50

75

100

23-M

ar

30-M

ar

6-Ap

r

13-A

pr

20-A

pr

27-A

pr

4-M

ay

11-M

ay

18-M

ay

25-M

ay

1-Ju

n

8-Ju

n

15-J

un


Ban Lifting TBD

Partial Reopen






0

20

40

60

80

100



Gathering

Go to the Office





02 03

33

6966

52

44

38



New York(175789)

California(730283)

Michigan(307242)


Ohio(183528)

Georgia(125314)

New Jersey(143819)

Illinois(119796)

Florida(74205)

Texas(60968)

1





$787 Billion

$20 Trillion

54

92

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

$3000








0

50

100

150

200

250





17

8

15

9 10

15

2119

5 5

3330

34

14 15




Govt FiscalStimulus

CombinedStimulus




Equities









40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47




































































































MONTHLYLETTER


ldquo






Warmly




107

128

65

92

142

127

88

18

06

06

52

-07

38

14

-15

29

Global (MSCI ACWI)
















MTD ()-129

-93

-178

-166

-197

-241

-167

50

35

88

14

-12

-98

04

-245

-42

Global (MSCI ACWI)
















YTD ()-50

09

-113

-120

-149

-196

-83

108

78

141

99

24

-53

44

NA

-232

08

Global (MSCI ACWI)
















1 Year ()

Fixed Income

Equity

Non-Traditional





May 4 2020




Expected

Return

Expected

Risk

$14522

Less

Attractive

More

Attractive

-15-54 - 00

000 - 025025 - 150

Less

Attractive

More

Attractive


Less

Attractive

More

Attractive

Expected

Return

Expected

Risk



110x205x 173x 163x 135x150x 140x 132x

100x 96x 91x 82x


Intl Dev Small Caps


Intl Dev Small Caps

Economy
















55 56

30

-01

54

43

35 35 36 35 3439

36

29

-30

58

-40

-30

-20

-10

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21




Forecast






100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000
















amp Snapback)



Sluggish Return)

Public Health












medical equipment


Actions


Economy



under 7












-273

90 69

-48

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Median Consensus

Actual Results





0

25

50

75

100

23-M

ar

30-M

ar

6-Ap

r

13-A

pr

20-A

pr

27-A

pr

4-M

ay

11-M

ay

18-M

ay

25-M

ay

1-Ju

n

8-Ju

n

15-J

un


Ban Lifting TBD

Partial Reopen






0

20

40

60

80

100



Gathering

Go to the Office





02 03

33

6966

52

44

38



New York(175789)

California(730283)

Michigan(307242)


Ohio(183528)

Georgia(125314)

New Jersey(143819)

Illinois(119796)

Florida(74205)

Texas(60968)

1





$787 Billion

$20 Trillion

54

92

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

$3000








0

50

100

150

200

250





17

8

15

9 10

15

2119

5 5

3330

34

14 15




Govt FiscalStimulus

CombinedStimulus




Equities









40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47






































































































107

128

65

92

142

127

88

18

06

06

52

-07

38

14

-15

29

Global (MSCI ACWI)
















MTD ()-129

-93

-178

-166

-197

-241

-167

50

35

88

14

-12

-98

04

-245

-42

Global (MSCI ACWI)
















YTD ()-50

09

-113

-120

-149

-196

-83

108

78

141

99

24

-53

44

NA

-232

08

Global (MSCI ACWI)
















1 Year ()

Fixed Income

Equity

Non-Traditional





May 4 2020




Expected

Return

Expected

Risk

$14522

Less

Attractive

More

Attractive

-15-54 - 00

000 - 025025 - 150

Less

Attractive

More

Attractive


Less

Attractive

More

Attractive

Expected

Return

Expected

Risk



110x205x 173x 163x 135x150x 140x 132x

100x 96x 91x 82x


Intl Dev Small Caps


Intl Dev Small Caps

Economy
















55 56

30

-01

54

43

35 35 36 35 3439

36

29

-30

58

-40

-30

-20

-10

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21




Forecast






100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000
















amp Snapback)



Sluggish Return)

Public Health












medical equipment


Actions


Economy



under 7












-273

90 69

-48

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Median Consensus

Actual Results





0

25

50

75

100

23-M

ar

30-M

ar

6-Ap

r

13-A

pr

20-A

pr

27-A

pr

4-M

ay

11-M

ay

18-M

ay

25-M

ay

1-Ju

n

8-Ju

n

15-J

un


Ban Lifting TBD

Partial Reopen






0

20

40

60

80

100



Gathering

Go to the Office





02 03

33

6966

52

44

38



New York(175789)

California(730283)

Michigan(307242)


Ohio(183528)

Georgia(125314)

New Jersey(143819)

Illinois(119796)

Florida(74205)

Texas(60968)

1





$787 Billion

$20 Trillion

54

92

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

$3000








0

50

100

150

200

250





17

8

15

9 10

15

2119

5 5

3330

34

14 15




Govt FiscalStimulus

CombinedStimulus




Equities









40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47








































































































May 4 2020




Expected

Return

Expected

Risk

$14522

Less

Attractive

More

Attractive

-15-54 - 00

000 - 025025 - 150

Less

Attractive

More

Attractive


Less

Attractive

More

Attractive

Expected

Return

Expected

Risk



110x205x 173x 163x 135x150x 140x 132x

100x 96x 91x 82x


Intl Dev Small Caps


Intl Dev Small Caps

Economy
















55 56

30

-01

54

43

35 35 36 35 3439

36

29

-30

58

-40

-30

-20

-10

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21




Forecast






100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000
















amp Snapback)



Sluggish Return)

Public Health












medical equipment


Actions


Economy



under 7












-273

90 69

-48

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Median Consensus

Actual Results





0

25

50

75

100

23-M

ar

30-M

ar

6-Ap

r

13-A

pr

20-A

pr

27-A

pr

4-M

ay

11-M

ay

18-M

ay

25-M

ay

1-Ju

n

8-Ju

n

15-J

un


Ban Lifting TBD

Partial Reopen






0

20

40

60

80

100



Gathering

Go to the Office





02 03

33

6966

52

44

38



New York(175789)

California(730283)

Michigan(307242)


Ohio(183528)

Georgia(125314)

New Jersey(143819)

Illinois(119796)

Florida(74205)

Texas(60968)

1





$787 Billion

$20 Trillion

54

92

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

$3000








0

50

100

150

200

250





17

8

15

9 10

15

2119

5 5

3330

34

14 15




Govt FiscalStimulus

CombinedStimulus




Equities









40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47




































































































Economy
















55 56

30

-01

54

43

35 35 36 35 3439

36

29

-30

58

-40

-30

-20

-10

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21




Forecast






100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000
















amp Snapback)



Sluggish Return)

Public Health












medical equipment


Actions


Economy



under 7












-273

90 69

-48

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Median Consensus

Actual Results





0

25

50

75

100

23-M

ar

30-M

ar

6-Ap

r

13-A

pr

20-A

pr

27-A

pr

4-M

ay

11-M

ay

18-M

ay

25-M

ay

1-Ju

n

8-Ju

n

15-J

un


Ban Lifting TBD

Partial Reopen






0

20

40

60

80

100



Gathering

Go to the Office





02 03

33

6966

52

44

38



New York(175789)

California(730283)

Michigan(307242)


Ohio(183528)

Georgia(125314)

New Jersey(143819)

Illinois(119796)

Florida(74205)

Texas(60968)

1





$787 Billion

$20 Trillion

54

92

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

$3000








0

50

100

150

200

250





17

8

15

9 10

15

2119

5 5

3330

34

14 15




Govt FiscalStimulus

CombinedStimulus




Equities









40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47



















55 56

30

-01

54

43

35 35 36 35 3439

36

29

-30

58

-40

-30

-20

-10

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21




Forecast






100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000
















amp Snapback)



Sluggish Return)

Public Health












medical equipment


Actions


Economy



under 7












-273

90 69

-48

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Median Consensus

Actual Results





0

25

50

75

100

23-M

ar

30-M

ar

6-Ap

r

13-A

pr

20-A

pr

27-A

pr

4-M

ay

11-M

ay

18-M

ay

25-M

ay

1-Ju

n

8-Ju

n

15-J

un


Ban Lifting TBD

Partial Reopen






0

20

40

60

80

100



Gathering

Go to the Office





02 03

33

6966

52

44

38



New York(175789)

California(730283)

Michigan(307242)


Ohio(183528)

Georgia(125314)

New Jersey(143819)

Illinois(119796)

Florida(74205)

Texas(60968)

1





$787 Billion

$20 Trillion

54

92

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

$3000








0

50

100

150

200

250





17

8

15

9 10

15

2119

5 5

3330

34

14 15




Govt FiscalStimulus

CombinedStimulus




Equities









40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47









100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000
















amp Snapback)



Sluggish Return)

Public Health












medical equipment


Actions


Economy



under 7












-273

90 69

-48

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Median Consensus

Actual Results





0

25

50

75

100

23-M

ar

30-M

ar

6-Ap

r

13-A

pr

20-A

pr

27-A

pr

4-M

ay

11-M

ay

18-M

ay

25-M

ay

1-Ju

n

8-Ju

n

15-J

un


Ban Lifting TBD

Partial Reopen






0

20

40

60

80

100



Gathering

Go to the Office





02 03

33

6966

52

44

38



New York(175789)

California(730283)

Michigan(307242)


Ohio(183528)

Georgia(125314)

New Jersey(143819)

Illinois(119796)

Florida(74205)

Texas(60968)

1





$787 Billion

$20 Trillion

54

92

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

$3000








0

50

100

150

200

250





17

8

15

9 10

15

2119

5 5

3330

34

14 15




Govt FiscalStimulus

CombinedStimulus




Equities









40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47
















amp Snapback)



Sluggish Return)

Public Health












medical equipment


Actions


Economy



under 7












-273

90 69

-48

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Median Consensus

Actual Results





0

25

50

75

100

23-M

ar

30-M

ar

6-Ap

r

13-A

pr

20-A

pr

27-A

pr

4-M

ay

11-M

ay

18-M

ay

25-M

ay

1-Ju

n

8-Ju

n

15-J

un


Ban Lifting TBD

Partial Reopen






0

20

40

60

80

100



Gathering

Go to the Office





02 03

33

6966

52

44

38



New York(175789)

California(730283)

Michigan(307242)


Ohio(183528)

Georgia(125314)

New Jersey(143819)

Illinois(119796)

Florida(74205)

Texas(60968)

1





$787 Billion

$20 Trillion

54

92

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

$3000








0

50

100

150

200

250





17

8

15

9 10

15

2119

5 5

3330

34

14 15




Govt FiscalStimulus

CombinedStimulus




Equities









40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47






-273

90 69

-48

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Median Consensus

Actual Results





0

25

50

75

100

23-M

ar

30-M

ar

6-Ap

r

13-A

pr

20-A

pr

27-A

pr

4-M

ay

11-M

ay

18-M

ay

25-M

ay

1-Ju

n

8-Ju

n

15-J

un


Ban Lifting TBD

Partial Reopen






0

20

40

60

80

100



Gathering

Go to the Office





02 03

33

6966

52

44

38



New York(175789)

California(730283)

Michigan(307242)


Ohio(183528)

Georgia(125314)

New Jersey(143819)

Illinois(119796)

Florida(74205)

Texas(60968)

1





$787 Billion

$20 Trillion

54

92

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

$3000








0

50

100

150

200

250





17

8

15

9 10

15

2119

5 5

3330

34

14 15




Govt FiscalStimulus

CombinedStimulus




Equities









40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47






0

25

50

75

100

23-M

ar

30-M

ar

6-Ap

r

13-A

pr

20-A

pr

27-A

pr

4-M

ay

11-M

ay

18-M

ay

25-M

ay

1-Ju

n

8-Ju

n

15-J

un


Ban Lifting TBD

Partial Reopen






0

20

40

60

80

100



Gathering

Go to the Office





02 03

33

6966

52

44

38



New York(175789)

California(730283)

Michigan(307242)


Ohio(183528)

Georgia(125314)

New Jersey(143819)

Illinois(119796)

Florida(74205)

Texas(60968)

1





$787 Billion

$20 Trillion

54

92

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

$3000








0

50

100

150

200

250





17

8

15

9 10

15

2119

5 5

3330

34

14 15




Govt FiscalStimulus

CombinedStimulus




Equities









40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47






0

20

40

60

80

100



Gathering

Go to the Office





02 03

33

6966

52

44

38



New York(175789)

California(730283)

Michigan(307242)


Ohio(183528)

Georgia(125314)

New Jersey(143819)

Illinois(119796)

Florida(74205)

Texas(60968)

1





$787 Billion

$20 Trillion

54

92

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

$3000








0

50

100

150

200

250





17

8

15

9 10

15

2119

5 5

3330

34

14 15




Govt FiscalStimulus

CombinedStimulus




Equities









40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47




02 03

33

6966

52

44

38



New York(175789)

California(730283)

Michigan(307242)


Ohio(183528)

Georgia(125314)

New Jersey(143819)

Illinois(119796)

Florida(74205)

Texas(60968)

1





$787 Billion

$20 Trillion

54

92

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

$3000








0

50

100

150

200

250





17

8

15

9 10

15

2119

5 5

3330

34

14 15




Govt FiscalStimulus

CombinedStimulus




Equities









40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47






$787 Billion

$20 Trillion

54

92

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

$3000








0

50

100

150

200

250





17

8

15

9 10

15

2119

5 5

3330

34

14 15




Govt FiscalStimulus

CombinedStimulus




Equities









40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47







0

50

100

150

200

250





17

8

15

9 10

15

2119

5 5

3330

34

14 15




Govt FiscalStimulus

CombinedStimulus




Equities









40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47




17

8

15

9 10

15

2119

5 5

3330

34

14 15




Govt FiscalStimulus

CombinedStimulus




Equities









40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47




Equities









40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47












40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Perfo

rman

ce (I

ndex

ed to

100

)



1961 1966 1968 1973 1980 1987 2000 2007 2020



2020 1987

2007

1973 2000

-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47




-21 -15 -21 -14

-36-48

-17-27 -20

-37

-57

-28 -21

40 39 32 3145 38 37

58

29

-14

68

37 38

63

98

45

5

5669

15

59

37

6

93

50 56

Nov-48 -Oct-49

Jul-53 -May-54

Aug-57 -Apr-58

Apr-60 -Feb-61

Dec-69 -Nov-70

Nov-73 -Mar-75

Jan-80 -Jul-80

Jul-81 -Nov-82

Jul-90 -Mar-91

Mar-01 -Nov-01

Dec-07 -Jun-09

Average Median









SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47







SampP 500 Sector


Below52-Week

High

1 Month Change in

Forward EPS





GrowthDefensive

63

Cyclical 24

Other 13


47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47





47

107

76

50 52

114

129

Less Than-200

-200 to -100



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20




Current

Average = 62



454

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47




1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300


SampP 500 2016




900

1000

1100

1200

1300


SampP 500 2010

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


SampP 500 2011

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200


SampP 500 2015

2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47




2000

2500

3000

3500

2018 2019 2020

SampP 500







1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47




1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SampP 500



10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20

AAII Bears





Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47







Price Decline


Peak




(Measured From Low)

Aug-56 Oct-57 15 -22 Sep-58 26 11

Dec-61 Jun-62 7 -28 Sep-63 21 14

Feb-66 Oct-66 8 -22 May-67 15 7

Nov-68 May-70 18 -36 Mar-72 40 22

Jan-73 Oct-74 21 -48 Jul-80 91 70

Nov-80 Aug-82 21 -27 Nov-82 24 3

Aug-87 Dec-87 3 -34 Jul-89 23 20

Mar-00 Oct-02 31 -49 May-07 87 56

Oct-07 Mar-09 17 -57 Mar-13 67 49

Feb-20 Mar-20 1 -34

Median 17 -34 26 20

Average 16 -36 44 28




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47




75

84 88

95 100





80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47




80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2019 2020


US EAFE UK Japan EM

US

EMJapan

UK

EAFE



197

143

131 134122

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

US EAFE UK Japan EM


Average Current




50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47






50

41

39

37

35

30

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK


Emerging Markets

Germany

Japan

China

US







5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47






5

20

80

320

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47





-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

90 95 00 05 10 15 20



0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

90 95 00 05 10 15 20





Average

Small Caps

Large Caps




95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47







95

105

115

125

19 20

Technology

95

100

105

110

19 20


85

95

105

19 20

Materials

90

100

110

120

19 20

Consumer Staples

406080

100

19 20

Energy

758595

105

19 20

Industrials

90100110120

19 20

Health Care

8595

105115

19 20

Utilities

85

95

105

19 20


758595

105

19 20

Financials

8090

100110120

19 20

Real Estate


Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47




Fixed Income




399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47







399

139

303

136

324

054

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47







00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

3Mo

1Yr

2Yr

3Yr

5Yr

7Yr

10Yr

30Yr


April 30 2020

March 31 2020


$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47





$50T

$55T

$60T

$65T

$70T

$75T

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020










-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47








-100

-050

000

050

100

150

200




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

US 1

0-Yr

Tre

asur

y

US C

ore

Taxa

ble

Mun

is

IG C

orp

MBS

Intl

Dev

Mrk

ts

HY

Corp

HY

Mun

i

Pref

erre

ds

Conv

ertib

les

EM H

ard

Cur

EM L

oc C

ur


Range Current Yield








$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47







$00

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

12312019 01312020 02292020 3312020 4302020




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47





0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47




$00

$05

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2020Annualized






0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47





0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500



4302019 12312019 4302020



CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47




CONTRIBUTORS






EYLEMSENYUZ




ANDREWRICHMAN CTFA


CHIP HUGHEY CFA




DYLANKASE CFA


JEFF TERRELL CFA




















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47





















Research Analyst










Len LebovDirector


Sejal PatelDirector










Director



Director





Will RepathDirector
















CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47








CN 2020-0808 EXP 12-2020

Slide Number 1

Slide Number 2

House Views

Slide Number 4



Economy

Slide Number 8



Slide Number 11









Equities
















Fixed Income










Slide Number 46

Slide Number 47




investment advisory group, market navigator€¦ · fixed income us large cap equity 6.75% 15.2%...

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