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Investing in Crop Agriculture in Bangladesh for

Higher Growth and Productivity, andAdaptation to Climate Change

M. Asaduzzaman, BIDSClaudia Ringler, IFPRIJames Thurlow, IFPRIShafiqul Alam, MoA

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The Present Context of Agricultural Growth

• Crop agriculture – main driving force behind ag growth

• Rice predominates – dry period, irrigated boro rice mainstay; part wet period/part dry aman second most important – but prone to damage

• Limited crop diversification• Soil degradation a major problem• Some areas still relatively less exploited for crop

cultivation e.g., SW bangladesh• Heavy dependence on ground water irrigation –

costly in financial and budgetary as well as environmental terms

• Risk-minimising institutional mechanisms such as insurance not developed

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Fluctuations in Boro and Aman Annual Output

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1978-79

1980-81

1982-83

1984-85

1986-87

1988-89

1990-91

1992-93

1994-95

1996-97

1998-99

2000-01

2002-03

2004-05

2006-07

2008-09

Perce

nt ch

ange

year

on ye

ar

Total-p Aman-p Boro-p

Both boro & aman output volatile; aman fluctuation mainly negative & boro mostly positive; boro upswings follow aman downswings

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Losses in Agricultural GDP due to Climatic Factors Now and in Future

Cost of present climate variability - 7.4% output/yr mainly due to lower boro output. SWB to be worst affected.Future CC lowers output further by nearly 4%/yr.GDP loss - US$ 26 bn for ag & US$ 121 for national over 2005-50 due present variability. CC to add more losses of US$7.7 and 26 bn.

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Investment Trends in R&D, Extension and Marketing

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Millio

n Tak

a

ALL NOMINAL ALL REAL

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1999-2000

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

Mn Ta

ka

DAM-N DAM-R DAE-N DAE-R

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Future Challenges

• Raise output at – In face of increasing population– Continuously smaller and degraded land

and other resource base such as water– Climate change impacts– While lowering costs of production– Increasingly smaller holdings and other

changes such as feminisation

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Future Strategy for Growth• Sabilise & raise aman yield to move from

boro to aman as far as practicable over time• Raise water use efficiency• Lessen ground water dependence &

encourage use of surface water • Exploit potentials elsewhere in country,

specifically SW BD • Crop diversification and specialisation• Integrated water management through River

basin development in inland and Tidal basin development in coast particularly SW BD to provide over-all planning framework

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Specific Investment Area 1• Integrated water management plan within

framework of River Basin, and Tidal basin development – may easily accommodate Government’s river bed flow maintenance programme

• Both structural and non-structural measures necessary – must be people-centric

• Immediate need is to invest in rehabilitation of the dysfunctional polders and embankments in the South West to reclaim temporarily lost crop land and hedge against storm surges and salinity intrusion

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Specific Investment Areas 2• R&D – aim to maintain productivity by

developing varieties of and agronomic practices for crops

• Future varieties to tolerate drought, salinity, submergence, moderate storm; be of shorter maturity;

• Research station in each old district for more ecology-specific varieties;

• Emphasis on biotechnology and related investments – more gene banks;

• Tertiary ag education and training for scaling up human resource quantity and quality.

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Specific Investment Areas 3• Extension

– Extension system needs thorough overhauling to cater to farmers’ demand

– Programmes for strengthening NARS-Extension linkage

– More training schools with better quality training with trainers training schools at quality assured public institutions

– Scaling up human resources for specialised services

– Whole seed system to be revamped - scale up quality seed programmes – more seed storage facilities

• Marketing – discussed in other paper

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Specific Investment Areas 4

• Adaptation to Climate Change Impact – Not much new areas of investment as

adaptation will be similar to the strategy above – but with more urgency of action

– One or two new areas of investment such as long-range weather, flood forecasting and warning necessary; crop insurance to be emphasised

– Part of BCCSAP 2009 approved by Government

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Nature of Future Technology, Extension and Marketing Services

• Not so much an investment issue but the type of planning that may be necessary to adjust to– Increasingly smaller holdings – Implications of feminisation such as stress

on home-based or field crops; technology demanding less manual labour; what implications for extension or marketing services? The issue is not simply of women farmers (as in cross cutting paper) but women as farmers.

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THANK YOU