Investigating the Volume and Structure of Alcohol Consumption and their Impact on Life

Expectancy in Russian RegionsTatiana Kossova, PhD in Economics,Elena Kossova, PhD in Mathematics,

Maria Sheluntcova, PhD in Economics

National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015

www.hse.ru

This paper is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of

Economics (HSE)

National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015

Consumption of alcohol in Russian regions

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What macroeconomic factors influence alcohol consumption in

Russian regions?

The priority of the government policy is to reduce alcohol

consumption

The volume and structure of alcohol

consumption continue to change

National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015

Literature review

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Regional differences in alcohol consumption• Paper of Bränström & Andréasson (2008) for Sweden; Benčević-

Striehlet et al (2009) for Croatia; Ogwang & Cho (2009) for Canada, etc.

Macroeconomic factors influence alcohol consumption• Per capita income: paper of Chaix & Chauvin (2003) for France,

Ogwang & Cho (2009) for Canada, etc.• Unemployment: paper of Herzfeld et al (2014) for Russia,

Ogwang & Cho (2009) for Canada, Schnuerer et al (2013) for Germany, etc.

• Urbanization: paper of Klein & Pittman (1993) for the US, Schnuerer et al (2013) for Germany, Herzfeld et al (2014) for Russia, etc.

National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015

Alcohol consumption and life expectancy in Russia

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Life expectancy gap between Russia and Western countries remains substantial

largely due to alcohol abuse in Russia

(Shkolnikov et al., 2013)

At least 1/3 of all deaths in Russia are directly or indirectly

associated with alcohol intake (Pridemore 2008;

Popov 2009)

Regions substantially differ from each other

on the volume of alcohol consumption and life expectancy

indicators

What is the relationship between alcohol consumption and mortality from external causes as well as life

expectancy in Russia?

National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015

Per capita consumption of alcoholic beverages in 2008 - 2012

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National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015

Model specification and data

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• is the annual consumption (in litres) per-capita of a particular alcoholic beverage k in the i-th region in year t (i=1,...,78; t = 2008, 2009,..., 2012).

• The variables (s=1,...,7) represent macroeconomic determinants in the i-th regions in year t.Fixed effects panel regressions for absolute alcohol, vodka, beer, wine, for cognac and champagne together with sparkling wine.

Data source is the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia.

National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015

Macroeconomic factors

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•Income per-capita (rubles)

•Per-capita consumption of electricity (thousands kWh)

•Provision with computers per 100 households

Economic development

and living standards

•Population size (thousands)

•Degree of urbanization (%)

Degree of urbanization

•Unemployment rate (%)

•Gini coefficient

Level of social tension

National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015

Estimation results

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VARIABLES Ln(vodka) Ln(beer) Ln(wine)Ln(income_min) -0.130 0.252** -0.191*

(0.0941) (0.107) (0.112)Ln(energy_consumption) 0.288*** 0.580*** 0.271**

(0.0833) (0.112) (0.117)Ln(computers) -0.126***

(0.0339)Urbanization_rate 0.0188*** 0.0604***

(0.00659) (0.00951)1/population 0.380***

(0.0893) Unemployment_rate -0.00831 0.0207***

(0.00542) (0.00598)Unempl_rate *(year-2008) -0.00532*** -0.00427***

(0.000650) (0.000914)Gini_coefficient 2.375**

(1.059) Constant -0.685 3.604*** -2.721***

(0.613) (0.242) (0.732)Observations 390 390 390R-squared 0.314 0.115 0.207

National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015

Life expectancy for men and women in Russia

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

1020304050607080

Life expectancy (men) Life expectancy (women)

Data source is the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia

National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015

Estimation results

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VARIABLES Ln(death) Ln(life_men) Ln(life_women)Ln(alcohol) 0.334*** -0.0346* -0.0219*

(0.101) (0.0198) (0.0116)

Ln(income_min) -0.286*** 0.0348*** 0.0152**

(0.0785) (0.0122) (0.00671)

Ln(computers) 0.0204*** 0.0106*** (0.00457) (0.00284)

Ln(meat) 0.0374** (0.0173)

Ln(sugar) 0.0370** (0.0154)

Ln(Unemployment_rate) 0.0345* -0.00346*(0.0204) (0.00184)

Ln(Unemployment_rate*(year-2008)) -0.0199*** 0.00256*** 0.00171***

(0.00208) (0.000407) (0.000234)

Gini_coefficient 2.215*** -0.235** -0.144**(0.795) (0.117) (0.0677)

Constant 3.836*** 3.874*** 4.350***(0.309) (0.111) (0.0373)

R-squared 0,57 0,75 0,78

National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015

Conclusions on the volume & structure of alcohol consumption in Russia

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There is the general trend of reduction of alcohol consumption in Russia as a whole over 2008 - 2012

Vodka and beer are main alcoholic beverages consumed in Russia

The North of the European part of Russia and the Far East that are characterized by problem drinking

National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015

Conclusions on macroeconomic factors

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Regions’ welfare & alcohol consumption: positive correlation

The unemployment rate affects the consumption of different types of alcoholic beverages in a different way

Urbanization & alcohol consumption: positive correlation. Sparsely populated regions are characterized by higher alcohol consumption

National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015

Conclusions on alcohol consumption & life expectancy in Russia

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We confirm positive relationship between alcohol consumption and mortality from external causes in Russian regions

The average life expectancy, other things being equal, is lower in regions where alcohol consumption is high. This effect is stronger for men than for women