inverse relationships between nao and calanus finmarchicus...

Inverse Relationships Between NAO and Calanus Finmarchicus Populations

in the Western N. Atlantic (Gulf of Maine) and the Eastern N.Atlantic

(North Sea)

A.Conversi1, S.Piontkovski1, S.Hameed1, P. Licandro2, F. Ibanez2, S. Vignudelli3

1 MSRC, State University of New York at Stony Brook, USA 2 Observatoire Oceanologique, Villefranche-Sur-Mer, France3 CNR, Istituto Elaborazione Informazione, Pisa, Italy

[email protected]

The Continuous Plankton Recorder, SST, and the North Atlantic Oscillation index are used to study the temporal dynamics over 30 years of the Calanus finmarchicus. In the Gulf of Maine the NAO index is positively correlated to the winter SST, leading it by two years, and SST is positively correlated with Calanus finmarchicus (leading it by two years). Three major components of temporal dynamics in Calanus abundance are analyzed: seasonal cycle, interannual, and interdecadal variability. They all indicate a POSITIVE relationship with the NAO. C.f. abundance and NAO index are positively cross-correlated, with NAO leading by four years. The seasonal cycle of C. finmarchicus abundance becomes more pronounced, showing higher overall abundance, during high NAO years. This relationship is opposite to that found between NAO and Calanus finmarchicus in the eastern North Atlantic (Fromentin and Planque, 1996). The comparison of the interannual variations of Calanus finmarchicus in the eastern and western Atlantic shows a remarkable inverse phase relationship: when one species increases in the Gulf of Maine, it decreases in the North Sea, and viceversa. These results suggest that large scale physical/climatological factors dominate the interannual variability of this species: local factors, such as predation or food availability, cannot in fact sustain a decadal phase association across the ocean

Abstract

Contribute to the understanding of the relationship between plankton and climate variations Questions:

• What is the relationship between Calanus finmarchicus (C.f.) in the Gulf of Maine (GOM) and the NAO index?• How does it compare with the relationships found in the North Sea (area A2 in Fig.1)?

Purpose of the research(a US-Globec, Georges Bank study)

photo from http://calanus.nfh.no

Zooplankton – C.f. c.5-6 abundance. Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) data [ln (counts/10n.miles)]: continuous (night and day) horizontal tows at 10 m depth, by merchant and ocean weather ships along regular routes. GOM data from NOAA-Narragansett. North Sea data from SAHFOS. Same methodology.

GOM SST (°C): from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data set.

NAO index: Sea level pressure (mB) from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data set. Index calculated as the difference between the Azores Islands region (Ponta Delgadas) and the Icelandic region (Akureyri)Period utilized 1961-1991, monthly.

The Data

Fig. 1. Location of sampling areas

Results 1 – C.fin. in GOM and NAOWe found a positive relationship between Calanus f. abundance in the GOM and the NAO index at several scales: §Seasonal: C.f. abundance is overall higher and the seasonal cycle is more defined during years with higher NAO index (Fig.2) §Multidecadal: an increasing trend in C.f. abundance accompanies the well known increase in the NAO index (and in GOM SST temperature) of the same period (Fig.3)§Interannual (detrended values): higher than usual NAO fluctuations are significantly correlated with higher than usual SST 2 years later, and higher than usual C.f. abundance 4 years later (Fig.4)About 58% of the total variance of the C.f. summer abundance residuals can be calculated from 3 physical parameters: winter SST, summer SST and NAO (Fig.5)

Fig.2. Calanus f. annual cycle (GOM) vs. NAOA

bund

ance

(lo

g)

0

1

2

3

4

1 3 5 7 9 11

c

0

1

2

3

4

1 3 5 7 9 11

b

Months

0

1

2

3

4

1 3 5 7 9 11

30 year average HIGH NAO years average LOW NAO years aver.

HIGH NAO years:1961, 73, 74, 81, 83, 84, 89, 90; LOW NAO years: 1963, 64, 65, 66, 69, 77, 78, 79

(Conversi et al., 2001, in press)

Fig.3. Trends in GOM, 1961-1991

Top to bottom: SST (C), C.f. (log10 (#/100m3)), NAO index.


R2 = 0.391

R2 = 0.393

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91

SST

Calanus f.

R2 = 0.202

-8

-3

2

61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91

NAO

Fig.4. Cross-Correlations in GOM: NAO, SST, Calanus f.

§ NAO index fluctuations precede winter SST by 2 years

§ Winter SST precedes C.fin.summer abundance changes by 2 years

§ NAO index precedes summer C.f. by 4 years

§ All positive relations: higher NAO corresponds to higher SST and higher C.f. abundance(analysis on detrended data)

Cross-Correlation Function(a) First : NAO Index (detrended)Lagged: Winter SST (detrended)

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6

LAG

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

r = 0.47

(b) First : Winter SST (detrended)Lagged: Calanus finmarchicus summer abundance

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

r = 0.62

(c) First : NAO Index (detrended)Lagged: Calanus finmarchicus summer abundance

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

r = 0.50


Fig.5. Calculating Calanus finmarchicus summer variations

Regression equation (r=0.76, p<0.01):

C= -0.16 + 0.37 SSTW2 - 0.30 SSTS + -0.10 NAO2

C is Calanus abundance in summer; SSTW2 is the winter SST of two years earlier; SSTS is the same summer SST, and NAO2 is the NAO index of two years earlier. Detrended series.

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

79

81

83

85

87

89

91

Observed Calculated


Results 2 – C.finmarchicus inter-Atlantic comparison

The Eigen Vector Filtering (EVF) method, modified for application to time series with missing data (Ibanez and Conversi, Licandro et al, submitted), has been applied to C.f. series in the GOM and in the North Sea.

The filtered series indicate that the interannual variations of the copepod’s abundance on the opposite side of the ocean are not independent: when one species increases in the Gulf of Maine, it decreases in the North Sea, and viceversa (Fig. 6).

Fig. 6. Interannual variations of Fig. 6. Interannual variations of Calanus f.Calanus f. in western (GOM) in western (GOM) and eastern (northern North Sea) Atlanticand eastern (northern North Sea) Atlantic

The correlation between the filtered series (period 78-90 only) is r = - 0.48 after detrending (r = - 0.66 before detrending)

First Principal Components of Calanus finmarchicus, 1961-1990, monthly data

0

1

2

3

4

561 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89

F1

(ln

(#/1

0 n.

mile

s)) Gulf of Maine

North Sea (A2)

The analyses of C.f. show that this species’ fluctuations are dominated by interannual variability (Licandro et al, submitted). The analyses of C.f. interannual variations in the GOM indicate a positive relationship with the NAO at several scales in this area (Conversi et al, in press). This relationship is opposite to that found in the eastern North Atlantic (Fromentin and Planque, 1996). The transatlantic comparison (GOM vs. N. Sea) shown here confirms these differences, showing a remarkableinverse relationship between the interannual variations of this species across Atlantic. Such a long-distance association suggests that large scale physical/climatological factors dominate the interannual variability of this species: local factors, such as predation or food availability, cannot in fact sustain a decadal phase association across the ocean. Possible mechanisms to explain this association include NAO-induced large scale changes in the Labrador Sea (Greene and A. J. Pershing,

2001) and Gulf Stream transport and latitude (Taylor and J. A. Stephens, 1998), which favor in one side (and disfavor in the other) C.f. abundance.

Conclusions

ReferencesConversi A., S. Piontkovski and S. Hameed (in press). “Seasonal and interannual dynamics of Calanus finmarchicus in the Gulf of Maine (Northeastern US shelf) with reference to the North Atlantic Oscillation”. Deep Sea Research, 48 (1-3): 519-539, 2001.

Fromentin J. M. and B. Planque. Calanus and environment in the eastern North Atlantic. II. Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on C. finmarchicus and C.helgolandicus. Mar.Ecol.Prog.Ser. 134:111-118, 1996.

Greene H. and A. J. Pershing (in press). The response of Calanus finmarchicuspopulations to climate variability in the Northwest Atlantic: Basin-scale forcing associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Deep-Sea Research, 2001.

Ibanez F. and A. Conversi (submitted). “Prediction of missing values and detection of ‘exceptional events:’ a single algorithm”. Submitted to Oceanologica Acta (June 2000).

Licandro P., A. Conversi and F. Ibanez (submitted). “Time series analysis of interrupted long-term data set (1961-1991) of zooplankton abundance in the Gulf of Maine (Northern Atlantic, USA)”. Submitted to Oceanologica Acta (April 2000).

Taylor A. H. and J. A. Stephens. The North Atlantic Oscillation and the latitude of the Gulf Stream. Tellus 50A:134-142, 1998.

National Science Foundation

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Sciences

Kenneth Sherman (NOAA)

Jack Jossi (NOAA)

Chris Reid (SAHFOS)

Acknowledgements

Seguono extra slides (non usate)


Raw data in GOM and North Sea

0

2

4

6

8

61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89

ln (

#/10

n.m

iles)

F1 GOM (12) Cal.fin GOM F1 A2 Cal.fin.A2


Firs t Principal Components (EVF) of Calanus finmarchicus, 1961-1991, monthly data

0.50

1.50

2.50

3.50

4.50

61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89

months

F1 (l

n (#

/10n

.mile

s))

Gulf of Ma ine

UK-a2

The correlation between the filtered series (period 78-90 only) is r = - 0.48 after detrending (r = - 0.66 before detrending)

inverse relationships between nao and calanus finmarchicus...

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