introduction to project management session 3. programme session ii review homework discussion...

Introduction to Project Management session 3

ProgrammeSession II Review

Homework Discussion

Introduction to Work Breakdown Network Diagrams

Critical Path Analysis

Gantt Charts

Summary and Close

Risk Analysis

A Brief Review

External EnvironmentThings outside of the projects direct control that may result in its failure, but can be identified and monitored via a watching brief, i.e. fire, flood, famine, pestilence, war and global economic meltdown!

Internal Environment:Those that can occur as part of the project itself - something can usually be done about these

Internal / External Risks

Risk Likelihood / Impact

• How likely is the risk?– Low, Medium, High– Or Extremely Unlikely (will happen once in a

blue moon), Unlikely, Medium, Likely. Extremely Likely (it’s going to happen)

Influence and Control

• Simple list of what you can and cannot influence and control

Risk Likelihood / Impact

• What would be the impact on the project?– Low, Medium, High

– Or Very Low (no real impact), Low, Medium, High, Very High (catastrophic)

Constraint Risks• Product risk

– A risk that prevents you from meeting the product (project) specification

• Schedule risk– A risk that prevents project element from being

completed on time

• Resource risk– A risk that prevents enough or appropriate resources

from being available to complete a project element

Boston Chart

High RiskLow Return

High RiskHigh Return

Low RiskHigh Return

Low RiskLow Return

Project Familiarity

Both task and setting familiar

SHOULD BE OK

Task familiar

Setting unfamiliar

Task Unfamiliar

Setting Familiar

Task Unfamiliar

Setting unfamiliar

BE WARY!

Do you still want to undertake the project?

Homework Self Study Discussion

You:• Reviewed your QUAD chart• Produced a Stakeholder Analysis• Produced a Risk Assessment

(or you should have…).

Is your QUAD chart now more precise?

Have you assessed all risks?

Have you considered all potential stakeholders?

Tool & Technique Work Breakdown Structures

Planning the Do - The Work Plan

Remember our Project Life Cycle

• Evaluation Phase (The Wrap-up)

DO

PLAN

REVIEW

• Conception Phase (The Idea)

• Definition Phase (The Plan)

• Initiation Phase (The Team)

• Implementation Phase (The Work)

Motivation for a Work Plan• Helps you to understand what needs to be done• Helps others understand what needs to be done• Ensures that a task is not missed• Ensures that a task is not duplicated• Provides contingency should a key supporter be:

– Taken off project– Long term ill– Resign– Get run down by a no 43 bus and die

“The Devil is in the Detail”

• Need enough detail for any given activity to be able to:– Accurately estimate resources needed– Accurately estimate the time required– Assign the activity to someone else

• Too little detail will result in poor estimates• Too much detail is a waste of planning time

“The Devil is in the Detail”

• Identifying the appropriate level of detail– largely a question of experience– best to ask an expert (i.e the person performing

the activity, not someone who used to do it 5 years ago, or the manager who doesn’t do it but thinks they are an expert).

For a New Project

• Identify tasks by – asking others / through consultation– borrowing information from similar projects

• Be prepared to get it wrong and learn– this is one of the reasons why we have post-project

evaluation.– Even experienced project mangers get it wrong;

remember the London Dome, the Wembley stadium, the London Millenium Bridge….

The Jigsaw puzzle model

Consider a jigsaw puzzle

it may comprise many jumbled pieces

there may only be a few pieces

you might only have one piece and need to find the others?

you may have a nearly completed picture picture & just need to add a few pieces

it may be complete and look like this

or could look like this

Your project is a jigsaw

• You might have a complete picture

• You might have all the pieces

• You might know where to fit them and the sequence in which to fit them

• Or you might not….

Tool & Technique 10 Work Breakdown Structure

ELEMENTS

• So your task is to identify what level of detail you have for your puzzle.

• You will need to do this with your team of people.

• How accurately you do this could determine the success, or otherwise, of the project

Breaking the puzzle down into manageable pieces

• Called a ‘work breakdown’ structure

• There is a ‘bottom up approach’ and a ‘top down approach’

Methods for Developing a Work Breakdown Structure

• Bottom-up approach (using Brainstorming)• This is the most appropriate method for projects

involving untested methods and approaches OR where team members have not performed similar projects before

• Brainstorm to generate all activities you can think of that will have to be done.

• Then group them into categories

Remember the Traditional Cooked Breakfast Project?

Group work TASK 1: Developing a Work Breakdown Structure

Bottom Up Approach

• Brainstorm and write any and all activities that you think need to be performed for the Proper Cooked English Breakfast (PCEB) project on post-it notes or small cards.

Do not worry about overlap or level of detail at this stage.– Do not discuss task wording or details– Do not judge– Write everything down

Group work TASK 2: Developing a WorkBreakdown Structure (Bottom-Up)

• Study the post-its or cards and group the activities into a few major categories with common characteristics.– These will be your work assignments (elements)

• Can any activities within an element be grouped into a number of subtasks?

• Note this process is sometimes referred to as the Crawford Slip method.

Methods for Developing a Work Breakdown Structure II

Top-down approach

• Better suited to projects with which you or others are familiar

• Start at the top level (the finished project) and systematically develop increasing levels of detail for all activities

Group work TASK 3: Developing a Work Breakdown Structure (Top-down)

• Consider the finished project and work backwards.

• Use a top-down approach to determine any activities that might have been missed– There might not be any for a project of this size? ?

General rule for breaking down your work

• No Gaps: All work for a given task must be encompassed in its sub-tasks

• No Overlaps: The same work should not be included in more than one sub-task.

Gantt Chart

• If we were to cut the length of each post it note or card to scale and lay them out from start to finish then we basically have a Gantt Chart.

• The Gantt chart is one of the project manager’s tools for scheduling

The Gantt Chart - example

Time (s)Switch stove on

Break eggs

Cook sausages

Fry eggs

Pour WaterSlice + dice salad

Get cutleryLay table SLACK - SLACK - SLACK - SLACK

Place Pot on TrayServebreakfast served

Gantt Chart

• Named after its originator Henry Gantt.

• A Gantt chart is a bar graph which illustrates on a timeline when each activity will start, finish and end.

• It’s a pictorial representation of each stage of the project showing individual tasks subdivided into work units according to the length of time they will take.

Gantt Chart - How to

• A graph• Time on the horizontal axis• Each task (preferably in sequence) is listed

on the vertical axis

• Micrsoft office assistance available athttp://office.microsoft.com/en-gb/products/

results.aspx?qu=gannt+chart&sc=9

TIME - Project Time

?

?

Time – project time

The total time needed to perform a group or set of activities depends on 2 things:

1 DURATION – how long each activity will take,

2 SEQUENCE – the order in which you perform the activities.

Project time

Note that SEQUENCE might be determined by:

• the project

• you the project manager

• the customer/client

• all of the above

A question ?

• How long will a project consisting of 12 activities, which each take one week, take?A 1 weekB 12 weeks

B1 exactly 12 weeks B2 just slightly over 12 weeks

C 6 weeksD don’t know

The answer ?

• A 1 week might be correct if we can do all 12 activities at the same time and have the resources to do so.

• B 12 weeks (exactly or just over) might be correct if we have to do all the activities in sequence.

• C 6 weeks might be correct if we can do activity 1&2 together, 3&4 together, 5&6 together, etc.

• D don’t know - correct! We don’t know as we have insufficient information at the moment.

Tool & Technique The Network Diagram

• Note when people who aren’t project managers think of project management techniques they usually only think of Network diagrams and the Gantt chart.

• They are important tools, but, as we have seen so far, they are not the only tool.

Tool & Technique The Network Diagram

The Network diagram is a flow-chart that illustrates;

• Dependencies between tasks

• The order in which tasks will be performed

Network Diagrams

– Event - sometimes called a milestone (e.g. “design begins”, “draft report approved”)

– Activity - work required to move from one event to another

– Span time - the actual project time required to complete an activity

Network Diagrams (aka Dependency Diagram aka Precedence Diagram)

• Events – take no time and consume no resources – they occur instantaneously

• Activity – takes time and consumes resource

• Span time - the actual time required to complete an activity within the project (aka duration or elapsed time)

Span Time

But before we can consider a Network diagram we need to know about Span time

Estimating time within a project is one of most difficult things to do

Span Time

• Span time is actual project time – its duration.That is the time it takes to do something within the project.

• For example an activity which takes 1week of project time with 1 person doing it may take 3 days of project time if 2 people do it.

• Or it may still take 1 week as the activity may use a process using a special glue which needs 72 hours to set.

Span time varies – typically depending on

• Resources• people, • £funds, • equipment, • technology, • environment, • time• supplier delivery times,• etc.

Span time varies

• Many things may affect an activity’s span time – some will be under your control….and some will not.

• One of the project manager’s most difficult jobs is to correctly and accurately calculate/estimate an activity’s span time – always keeping an eye on reducing it if this reduces the overall project duration.

Span time and work effort

• Span time is not the same as work effort. • Work effort = the no. of hours it would take a

person to do the activity.• Example – 4 people work 5 days to complete an

activity; the span time is 5 days, the work effort is 20 person days.

• Example – 2 people work 10 days to complete the same activity; the work effort is still 20 person days; but the span time is now 10 days.

Span time – an example

• You need to test run new software, you estimate this will take 24 hours on a computer. If you are only allowed access to the computer for 6 hours per day, then the span time is 4 working days.

• If you want to halve the span time, then doubling, or tripling, the number of people working on it would have no effect; but getting access to the computer for 12 hours per day would. The span time has now been halved to 2 working days (not necessarily 2 consecutive days).

Span time

• The project manager needs to decide and be consistent as to whether his/her project’s span time is calculated according to actual real life working days or consecutive days.

• Do you include weekends, bank holidays, a 5% allowance for sick leave ??

Working out span time

• Need to take account of actual working hours and practice

• Example - An activity taking 24 hours will have a span time of 3 working days if an 9.5 hour day is worked with a 1 hour lunch break and a 15 minute break morning & afternoon with the assumption that people do nothing else other than work on the project.

• Or it could have a span time of 6 working days if the working day is 4 hours with no breaks.

Working out span time

• It takes experience and practice.

• It’s easy to underestimate how long something will take.

• It’s easy to assume a team member will spend 100% of their time doing something – in reality this very rarely occurs.

Other difficulties with estimating time

• Hofstadter's Law • Hofstadter's Law is a statement of the difficulty of

accurately estimating the amount of time it will take to complete tasks of any substantial complexity.

• It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take Hofstadter's Law into account.

• source1999 20th aniveersary edition of Godel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid


• Optimism bias - the demonstrated systematic tendency for people to be over-optimistic about the outcome of planned actions.

• This includes over-estimating the likelihood of positive events and under-estimating the likelihood of negative events.


• The planning fallacy - the tendency to underestimate task-completion times. Lovallo and Kahneman (2003) expanded the planning fallacy from being the tendency to underestimate task-completion times to being the tendency to underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future actions and at the same time overestimate the benefits of the same actions.

• According to this definition, the planning fallacy results in not only time overruns, but also cost overuns and benefit shortfalls.


• Unforeseen delays planning fallacy

• The problem with unforeseen delays is that you can’t foresee them! When people ask for a realistic estimate how long something will take they envision everything going exactly as planned, with no unexpected delays or unforeseen catastrophes

• Possibly therefore the trick is to plan in less detail. Elizier Yudkowsky (Oxford University blog overcomingbias.com identifies that one way is to ask yourself broadly how long it’s taken to do something similar in the past

• “You'll get back an answer that sounds hideously long, and clearly reflects no understanding of the special reasons why this particular task will take less time. This answer is true. Deal with it.”

Network Diagrams

Network Diagrams

(aka Dependency Diagram)

A network diagram in activity-in-the-box format is sometimes called a Precedence Diagram

Tool & Technique 12 Activity-in-the-Box Network or Precedence Diagrams

START

Activity 1t1 = 5

Activity 2t2 = 1

Activity 5t5 = 2

END

Activity 3t3 = 1

Activity 4t4 = 3

All inputs to an activity box must have been completed before it can begin.

E.g. Activity 1 and 4 must be completed before 5 can commence. Total minimum time is 7

Remember

• Events – take no time and consume no resources – they occur instantaneously

• Activity – takes time and consumes resource

• Span time - the actual time required to complete an activity within the project (aka duration or elapsed time)

EXAMPLE Activities & Events

An activity– Time T=5

An Event– Time T= 0

(Remember, events take no time)

An Activity and an event– Time T= 5

Write report

Finished report

approved

Hand in finished report

The 2 rules of network diagrams

• Rule 1 After you finish an activity or reach an event you can proceed to the next activity or event as indicated by the arrow(s) leaving that activity or event.

• Rule 2 To be able to start an activity or reach an event you must complete all activities and reach all events from which arrows entering that activity or event emanate.

Group work TASK 4: Network Diagram

• Consider one of the tasks, (e.g. “Make Tea” in our breakfast project).– Check to see if you have identified all sub-tasks– Place post it notes on large sheet and attempt to

create a network diagram– Assign estimates of the time required to perform

each sub-task

Example Activity-in-the-Box Network Diagram (Making the Tea)

START FillKettle

Switch Kettle On

Boil Water(Initial) Scold Pot Put

Tea-bag In

Re-Boil

PourWater

Place PotOn Tray

ServeENDTEA

SERVED

Put MilkIn Jug

Put SugarIn Bowl Get Tray Put Milk, Sugar,

Cup & Saucer on Tray

10s 3s 180s 10s 5s

10s

15s 5s

15s 15s 10s 10s 20s

Critical Path Analysis !

The next area we will look at – Critical Path Analysis and Slack time is often considered by people to be the most difficult part of project management.

• It is logical, but appears difficult at first. • If you use Microsoft project software then it will

‘do’ all the following for you. But it’s important to know how to do it so that you can understand what the software is actually doing.

Some definitions

• Critical Path – a sequence of activities in your project that takes the longest time to complete.

• Slack Time – the maximum amount of time that you can delay an activity and still finish your project on time.

• Non Critical Path – a sequence of activities that you can delay by some amount & still finish you project in the shortest possible time.

Tool and Technique Critical Path Analysis

• Critical Path Analysis is the process of identifying the sequence of activities in your network diagram that takes the longest time to complete.

• The length of the critical path defines how long your project will take to complete. That is then the SHORTEST possible time your project will take.

Example of a Network Diagram(Activity in the box or Precedence)

STARTT=0

Activity 1T = 5

Activity 2T = 1

Activity 5T = 2

ENDT=7

Activity 3T = 1

Activity 4T = 3

Critical Path is red. Time T is in weeks

The Forward PassA start-to-finish analysis

Determining critical paths, non critical paths, & earliest start and finish dates

Using ‘the forward pass’ a start-to-finish analysisRefer to the handout of the Network diagram

The 2 rules of Network diagrams…

• Rule 1 After you finish an activity or reach an event you can proceed to the next activity or event as indicated by the arrow(s) leaving that activity or event.

• Rule 2 To be able to start an activity or reach an event you must complete all activities and reach all events from which arrows entering that activity or event emanate.

Determining critical paths, non critical paths, and earliest start and finish dates.

Consider the diagram’s upper path – activities 1 & 2 • Rule 1 says you can start on activity 1 the moment the

project starts.• So the earliest you can finish activity 1 is the end of week

5 (you add it’s span time of 5 to it’s earliest start time of 0, to arrive at week 5).

• Rule 2 says the earliest you can start activity 2 is the beginning of week 6 (as the arrow from activity 1 is the only 1 entering activity 2).

• So the earliest you can finish activity 2 is the end of week 6.

The Forward Pass A start-to-finish analysis

Determining critical paths, non critical paths, and earliest start and finish dates.

Consider the diagram’s lower path – activities 3, 4, 5.• The earliest you can start activity 3 is the moment the project

starts.• The earliest you can finish activity 3 is the end of week 1.• The earliest you can start activity 4 is the beginning of week 2.• The earliest you can finish activity 4 is the end of week 4.• BUT, according to rule 2, the two arrows entering activity 5

mean that you cannot start activity 5 until BOTH activities 1 & 4 are finished. Even though you can finish 4 by end of week 4, you cannot finish 1 until end of week 5. SO the earliest you can start 5 is the beginning of week 6.

A guideline

• This illustrates a general guideline:

If 2 or more activities lead to the same activity, then the earliest date which you can start that activity is equal to the latest of the earliest finish dates for these 2 or more activities.

The Forward PassDetermining critical paths, non critical paths,

and earliest start and finish dates

• Earliest finish date for 4 is week 4.

• Earliest finish date for 1 is week 5.

• SO, the earliest you can start 5 is beginning of week 6.

• Earliest you can finish 5 is end of week 7.

• Earliest you can finish 2 is end of week 6.

SO, the earliest you can finish the entire project & reach the event ‘end’ is the end of week 7.

What have we just found out?We now know that:

• The length of the project is 7 weeks – the shortest time in which it can be completed.

• There is one critical path, it takes 7 weeks, it includes: the event ‘start’, activity 1, activity 5, the event ‘end’.

• Activities 2, 3, 4 are not critical paths.

Back to our example of a Precedence Network Diagram

STARTT=0

Activity 1T = 5

Activity 2T = 1

Activity 5T = 2

ENDT=7

Activity 3T = 1

Activity 4T = 3

Critical Path is red. Time T is in weeks

The backward passA finish-to-start analysis

Determining slack times and earliest start and finish dates

Using ‘the backward pass’

a finish-to-start analysis

The Backward PassA finish-to-start analysis


• We know from our start-to-finish or forward pass analysis that it takes 7 weeks to reach the event ‘end’.

BUT, rule 2 ( To be able to start an activity or reach an event you must complete all activities and reach all events from which arrows entering that activity or event emanate).

says that we cannot reach the event ‘end’ until both activities 2 & 5 are completed. SO, if we want to finish by the end of week 7, the latest we can finish 2 & 5 is the end of week 7.



Consider the diagram’s lower path – activities 3, 4, 5.

• You must start 5 by the beginning of week 6, at the latest, if you want to finish by end of week 7.

• Rule 2 says you can’t start 5 until you finish 1 & 4. SO, you must finish 1 & 4 by the beginning of week 6 at the latest. MEANING, you must start 4 by the beginning of week 3.

• You must finish 3 before you can start 4, THEREFORE you must finish 3 by the end of week 2,

• which means that you must start 3 by the end of week 2.



Now consider the diagram’s upper path.• You must start activity 2 by the beginning of week 7.

• You cannot start 2 until you finish activity 1. SO, you must finish 1 by the end of week 6.

• You must finish 1 by end of week 5 in order to start activity 5 at the beginning of week 6, and by the end of week 6 to allow work on activity 2 to start at the beginning of week 7. Finishing activity 1 by end of week 5 will satisfy both requirements.

Another guideline

• This illustrates another general guideline

If two or more arrows leave from the same event or activity, the latest date by which you must finish the activity, or reach the event, is the earliest of the latest dates by which you must start the activities or reach the events to which these arrows lead.

Confused….

• Don’t worry; most people find it confusing at first. It takes a little time for it to fully sink in.

• Spend time after this session reviewing the handouts to help you understand the process.

Back to our cup of tea…

Tool & Technique 14 Critical Path Analysis

(for Making the Tea)

START FillKettle

Switch Kettle On


Tea-bag In

Re-Boil

PourWater

Place PotOn Tray

ServeENDTEA

SERVED

Put MilkIn Jug



10s 3s 180s 10s 5s

10s

15s 5s

15s 15s 10s 10s 20s

TOTAL TIME = TIME ON CRITICAL PATH = 253 secsCritical Path

Group work TASK 5: Network Diagram - Identifying the Critical Path

• Can you identify the critical path in your network diagram?– Highlight it in red– Calculate the time-span of the critical path– Do you have any slack in your project?

Slack time – the maximum amount of time that you can delay an activity and still finish your project in the shortest possible time

But what if we alter one (or more) of the factors?

• Essentially this is why Network diagrams are essential for project management. They allow us to change one of the variables and see what affect it has on the whole project.

• Microsoft Project software does it all for you at the press of a button


• We can alter time the time constraint.

Change in Time constraint

• The hotel manager has decided that the tea must be made more rapidly.

• How can this be done?

• A super-kettle is purchased that can boil water in 10 seconds!

Tool & Technique 14 Critical Path Analysis

(for Making the Tea)

START FillKettle

Switch Kettle On


Tea-bag In

Re-Boil

PourWater

Place PotOn Tray

ServeENDTEA

SERVED

Put MilkIn Jug



10s 3s 180s 10s 5s

10s

15s 5s

15s 15s 10s 10s 20s


Effect of Resource ChangesNew Technology!

START FillKettle

Switch Kettle On


Tea-bag In

Re-Boil

PourWater

Place PotOn Tray

ServeENDTEA

SERVED

Put MilkIn Jug



10s 3s 10s 10s 5s

1s

15s 5s

15s 15s 10s 10s 20s

TOTAL TIME = TIME ON CRITICAL PATH = 83 secsStrictly speaking this would not work with a single person due to the overlap in activitiesCritical Path

Resource Change

Gantt Chart - 2Super Kettle

Time (s)Fill Kettle 10Switch Kettle On 3Boil Water (Initial) 10Scold Pot 10Put Tea Bag in Pot 5Re-boil 1Pour Water 15Place Pot on Tray 5Put Milk in Jug 15Put Sugar in Bowl 15Get Tray 10Place Milk, Sugar, Cup & Saucer on Tray10Serve 20Tea has been servedSTART-FINISH TIME 83

Strictly speaking this would not work with a single person due to the overlap in activities

Cost-Benefit

• The time saved was 170 seconds• However, the new super-kettle set you back a

princely £200• Is the investment worth it to improve on changes

in time constraint?• If those 170 seconds saved represented an early

finish bonus worth £300 then the investment would be worth it.

• And once you have bought it it can be used over and over again.


• We can take on another member of staff.

Effect of Resource Changessuper kettle!

START FillKettle

Switch Kettle On


Tea-bag In

Re-Boil

PourWater

Place PotOn Tray

ServeENDTEA

SERVED

Put MilkIn Jug



10s 3s 10s 10s 5s

1s

15s 5s

15s 15s 10s 10s 20s


Resource Change

Effect of Resource ChangesAnother pair of hands and super kettle!

START FillKettle

Switch Kettle On


Tea-bag In

Re-Boil

PourWater

Place PotOn Tray

ServeENDTEA

SERVED

Put MilkIn Jug



10s 3s 10s 10s 5s

1s

15s 5s

15s 15s 10s 10s 20s

TOTAL TIME = TIME ON CRITICAL PATH = 78 secs = only 5s savedPerson B

Person A

Critical Path

Cost vs Benefit ?

• So it’s probably not worth employing another member of staff once we have bought our super kettle if we only save a further 5 seconds

Gantt Chart - 3Another pair of hands

Time (s)Fill Kettle 10Switch Kettle On 3Boil Water (Initial) 10Scold Pot 10Put Tea Bag in Pot 5Re-boil 1Pour Water 15Place Pot on Tray 5Put Milk in Jug 15Put Sugar in Bowl 15Get Tray 10Place Milk, Sugar, Cup & Saucer on Tray10Serve 20Tea has been servedSTART-FINISH TIME 78

What Have We Done?• Reviewed risk analysis• Introduced work breakdown structures and methods

for their generation– had a go at the bottom-up approach

• Described network diagrams– activity-in-box diagrams– critical paths, the forward pass, the backward pass– effects of resource changes

• Gantt charts– Slack time

Homework Self study

• 1 Review your Stakeholder Analysis, ask for other people’s opinions and feedback. Keep a copy of the original and then produce a modified version which is more accurate.

• 2 Review and amend if required your Risk Analysis or produce one using the advanced risk analysis grid. Keep a copy of the original.

• 3 Produce a Network diagram and/or a Gantt chart for either the whole project, or a section of it.

• Read through today’s handouts. Check you understand it. www.hull.ac.uk/workbasedlearning/

introduction to project management session 3. programme session ii review homework discussion...

Documents

project slide

work slide

approach slide

control slide

project element slide

close slide

work plan slide

high catastrophic slide