introduction to investing brought to you by: online share trading presented by: simon pateman brown

Introduction to investing

Brought to you by:

Online Share Trading

Presented by:

Simon Pateman Brown

2

“You don’t have to be wealthy to invest.

But you do have to invest to be wealthy.”

Warren Buffett

(Richest person in the world

US$62billion)

3

Why are we providing free education?

• A study found that people do not invest in shares when they do not understand them

• An educated investor is more likely to be a successful investor and hence a long term investor

• We want our clients to be successful so that they continue to invest with us

• If you lose money you stop investing and we lose you as a client!

• The more people invest with us the lower the fees can be

– Our brokerage fees have fallen over the last 5 years

4

Educate yourself!

Name Duration Cost When

Introduction to investing 5 hours Free Saturday morning

How to use the website 2 hours Free Mid-week evening

Investing using fundamentals 1.5 hours Free Mid-week evening

Technical analysis (Part 1) 5 hours Free Saturday morning

Company announcements & fundamentals 5 hours Free Saturday morning

Market truths and trading skills 1.5 hour Free Mid-week evening

Introduction to share installments 1 hour Free Mid-week evening

Half day detailed warrants course 4 hours Free Saturday morning

Technical analysis (Part 2) 5 hours Free Saturday morning

Futures (single stock & currency) 1.5 hours Free Mid-week evening

Market outlook (6 to 12 month view) 1.5 hours Free Mid-week evening

5

Who is the course aimed at?

6

Who is the course aimed at?

• Wide appeal.

• Novice investor.

• Some one new to the share market.

• Review or recap on the basics.

7

What is investing?

8

Introduction to share investments

• Investing in the share market is not a pastime, is must be taken seriously. Investors require an education and the tools before they can hope for any measure of success.

• There are no magic formulas or Holy Grails to becoming rich investing in shares, but through education, you will be in the driving seat regarding your financial freedom.

9

The general misconception

• Misinformation regarding the share market.

– “My friend Richard made a killing in ABC company, and now he’s got another hot tip!!”.

– "Watch out, with shares-you can lose your shirt in a matter of days!“.

• Get rich quick mentality.

– e.g. The amazing dotcom market in the late 90’s Didata.

• Shares can (and do) create massive amounts of wealth, but they aren't without risks.

– The key to protecting yourself in the share market is to understand where you are putting your money.

10

Investing and Returns

• What is investing?

– Putting your money to work for you.

– Investing is more than simply hoping that luck is on your side (Gambling).

– Successful investing is committing capital only if there is a reasonable expectation of profit.

• Why Invest?

– Financial security.

• What do you invest in?

– What are your average returns?

– What are the fees that you are paying?

11

Risk vs. Return

12

Risk

• Investing is all about managing risk.

• Types of risks

– Business risk

– Financial risk

– Liquidity risk

– Exchange rate risk

– Country / Political risk

• Portfolio risk

• Psychological risk

• Neglect

13

How is risk managed

Diversification is a technique that reduces risk by allocating investments among various financial instruments,

industries and other categories.

• "Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket.”.

• Move to five shares.

14

JSE investments: Risk vs. Return

Futures

Warrants

Share instalments

Small caps shares

Blue chip shares

Cash / Fixed deposits

Incr

easi

ng ri

sk o

f los

s of

cap

ital

Incr

easi

ng p

oten

tial f

or c

apita

l app

reci

atio

nIncreasing risk of loss of purchasing pow

er

Increasing safety of capital

Start here

15

What is a reasonable return?

• Return must compensate for:

– Time value of money during investment period

– The expected rate of inflation

– Risk in the business

– Market return (beat the market or buy Satrix40)

• Buy the winning stock in the winning sector

16

Why the share market?

17


Source: JPMorgan

20-Year average return 1988-2007

20.1

16.3

18.917.3

8.4

11.910.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

Equties Ownmortage

Property unittrusts

Bonds Inflation Fixeddeposit

Krugerrands

18


• Over a long period of time, shares generally outperform any other type of investment & often experience extreme returns.

• Different types of strategies:

– Growth (reinvests profits to grow the business)

– Income (distributes most of profits as dividends)

– Speculating (short term buy/sell)

– Buy and hold

• Liquidity (speed of sale or purchase)

• Accessibility

• You’re in control

19


• An investment of R5000 in Standard Bank in 1990 when the share price was R1.77. Jan 08 it was R126, Jun 08 R75 now worth R211k, a return of over 4,220% excluding dividends (386c in 2007).

• Note that one can also experience extreme losses e.g. Didata.

18 September 1995 R3.2018 September 1999 R23.8018 September 2000 R69.6018 September 2001 R10.7018 September 2002 R2.4018 September 2007 R8.01

20

Before you start investing

21

Develop an investment strategy

• INTENT

• What stage of life are you at?

– Young

– Married with children

– Retirement

• What knowledge stage are you at?

• What’s your style? “Know thyself”

– What is your risk profile and risk tolerance?

– Being able to master risk is being able to master the markets

• Success depends on ensuring that your investment strategy fits your personal characteristics.

• What is your investment time frame?

• Invest, buy & hold or speculate?

22

Investment policy

• What are the real risks of an adverse financial outcome, especially in the short term?

• What probable emotional reaction will I have to an adverse financial outcome?

• How knowledgeable am I about investments and the share market?

• What other capital or income source do I have? How important is this part of the portfolio to my overall financial position?

• What, if any legal restriction maybe applicable to my investment needs?

• What, if any unanticipated consequence of interim fluctuation in portfolio value.

• Don’t risk more then you can afford to loose

23

Common Mistakes

• No investment strategy

• Investing in individual shares instead of in a diversified portfolio of securities.

• Investing in shares instead of in companies.

• Buying high and selling low.

• Churning your investments.

• Acting on “tips” and “sound bites”.

• Paying too much in fees and commissions.

• Decision-making by tax avoidance.

• Unrealistic expectations.

• Neglect.

• Not knowing your real tolerance for risk.

• Averaging down.

24

The mechanics of the share market

25

What is a share?

• Your “share” of a company you have invested in.

• If a company does well (is growing its profits) then its share price should rise.

• Likewise if a company is not doing well (is making losses) then its share price should fall.

• You can profit from share price movements and share income (dividends).

• You have a right to your say.

26

What is a share market?

• Like any other market.

• Requires buyers and sellers.

• Shares are bought or sold when buyers and sellers agree on a price.

27

JSE Over the last 45 years

•Logarithmic scale•Excluding dividends

28

Different types of shares• Ordinary shares.

• Preference shares & Retail notes (bonds).

• Exchange Traded Funds (EFT).– Satrix

– DB x-trackers

– NewGold

– PropTrax

• Derivatives.– Options (Warrants (calls & puts), Share Instalments)

– Futures (Single Stock Futures and Currency futures)

– Contract for difference - CFD

29

Shares vs. Other investments

JSE share type Alternate

investment

JSE advantage

Ordinary shares Owning a business Liquidity and costs

Property unit trust Owning property Costs and liquidity

Satrix Unit trust Costs

DB x-trackers Off-shore unit trusts Foreign allowance

and exchange ratePreference shares

and retail notes

Fixed deposits Liquidity and better rates (does not track

normal share)New Gold Gold/ Kruger rands Physical storage and

liquidity

30

Share categories

• Income shares.

– companies which pay large dividends.

• Blue chip shares.

– Issued by companies with long histories of growth and stability.

• Growth shares.

– Issued by entrepreneurial companies experiencing a faster rate of growth.

• Cyclical shares.

– Issued by companies that are affected by general economic trends.

• Defensive shares.

– The opposite of cyclical shares.

31

Different types of market

• Primary market.

– New issues of ordinary and preference shares are sold by companies to the public to raise new capital.

– Initial public offering (IPO).

– e.g. Pick ’n Pay may issue shares to grow the number of supermarkets it has.

• Secondary market.

– This is what people are talking about when they refer to the “share market" .

– Allow trading in issued shares in the market.

32

Characteristics of a good share market

• High liquidity.

• Timely and accurate information.

• Price continuity.

• Low transaction costs.

• JSE meets all the above mentioned criteria.

33

What are share indices?

• “The market performed well today” – what do they mean when they refer to the “market”?

• An index is a way of measuring the performance of a selection of shares across the market.

• When an index is up it means that on balance the share price of most of the shares in that index have increased that day. If the index is down then on balance most share prices of the shares on the market have decreased that day.

• Indices can be used as market barometers for the market as a whole.

Examples of well know indices are:

All Share

Nikkei

FTSE-100

Dow Jones

30 323

12 433

5 693

12 100

+87.1

+387.7

+56.5

+25.9

34

What determines a share price?

• Supply and demand.

• Market Issues.

– Overseas markets.

– Interest rates and inflation.

– The economy.

– Government policy.

• Company issues.

– Earnings prospects.

– Management.

– Strategic initiatives.

– Competitive environment.

35

How to make money in the stock market

You can make money with shares in two ways:

• Buying a share at a low price and selling that share at a higher price at a future date This is referred to as capital growth.

– e.g. buying Sanlam on 02 Jan 2007 for R19.00 per share and selling on 02 Jan 2008 for R22.81. A profit of R3.81 per share or a return of 20% over that period of time.

• From dividends received from a share. This is referred to as income.

• Growth and income are usually mutually exclusive.

36

What is a dividend?

• Dividends can be seen to be like tax free interest earned on the share.

• Dividends are distributions of a companies’ earnings to shareholders. The dividend earned on shares depends on the profits earned by the company and payment is decided by the company.

• The return that you receive from dividends can be expressed as % and is referred to as the dividend yield.

37

Dividend Yield

• The return that you receive from dividends can be expressed as % and is referred to as the dividend yield (like interest).

• Dividend Yield =

• Represents annual income from the share.

• Different for different types of shares.

• Income stocks DY 3-8, growth stocks DY 0-3.

Dividend per sharePrice per share X 100

38

The Dividend Yield - Example

• If you purchased Sanlam on 02 Jan 2007 at R19.00 you would have received a divided payment of R0.77 per share. This is a return of 4% per share (R0.77 / R19.00 = 4%)

– e.g. Sanlam paid a dividend of 77c in 2007, which is a 4% tax free yield

39

Choosing companies to invest in

40

Choosing companies to invest in

• Would you do business with them?

• General long term prospects.

– Will they be around in five years (or even better forever)?

• Do you know a bit about the business?

• Start with names you know and trust.

• Sound management.

• Financial strength and capital structure.

• Strong companies in strong sectors.

41

Methods used to chose companies

• Fundamental analysis

– Involves looking at any data, besides the trading patterns of the share itself, that can be expected to impact the price or perceived value of a share.

• Technical analysis

– A method of evaluating shares by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume.

42

Put another way

• “The story”- what the company does & what its outlook is (e.g. Pick ’n Pay is a supermarket chain. The outlook could be good for the economy and hence for personal spending could lead to more purchases at Pick ’n Pay hence the profits could be up and hence the share price could go up as well).

• “The numbers” – review the financial statements of the company to see how healthy it is (Look at the income statement to see the profitability of Pick ’n Pay. Look at the balance sheet to see how financially secure it is). Look at the Price Earnings (PE) Ratio.

• “The picture” – look at the history of the companies share price in a price chart (e.g. look at the past performance to see if the share is rising or falling, what is its trend?).

Fu

nd

amen

tal

An

alys

isT

ech

nic

al

An

aly

sis

43

Fundamental analysis

44

The story (eg Pick ’n Pay)

From the Standard Online Share

Trading Website

45

The numbers (e.g. Pick ’n Pay)

From the Standard Online Share Trading

Website

46

Share Price vs. Value

• Company A is worth R1m

• Issues 100,000 shares

• Each share is worth R10

• Company B is worth R1m

• Issues 10,000 shares

• Each share is worth R100

• Which company is cheap based on price?

• Share price alone does not always tell the full story.

• P/E ratio will be used to explain the concept of price vs. value.

• A 10% rise in Company A , is the same as a 10% rise in Company B.

• Price per share is not the same as amount invested.

47

The Price earnings ratio (P/E)

• PE ratio is one of the most widely regarded barometers of a company’s value.

• It establishes a direct relationship between the profitability of a company’s operations (EPS or the earnings per share) and the share price.

P/E ratio = price of share

(EPS)

• It allows you to compare one share to another within the same sector.

• If Pick ’n Pay has a share price of R36.00 and Spar has a share price of R60.00 which one would you buy? PE helps you.

48

The importance of the P/E Ratio

• Is this stock expensive?

– MNO & Co has a net profit (EPS) of R2000 for the year

– Asking price is R100 000

– P/E = R100 000

R2 000

=50

• Is this stock cheap?

– ABC & Co has a net profit (EPS) of R2000 for the year


– P/E = R12 000

R2 000

=6

• This means that the business would pay for itself in 6 years instead of 50, which is much more of a sane purchase!

• Income stocks P/E10-15, growth stocks P/E 20-30.

49

The importance of the P/E Ratio

– ABC & Co has a net profit (EPS) of R2000 for the year


– P/E = R12 000

R2 000

=6

– XYZ & Co has a net profit (EPS) of R6000 for the year


– P/E = R24 000

R6 000

=4

50

Fundamental analysis

Growth

Income

Dividend Yield

Pri

ce/e

arn

ing

s

Uses key financial indicators to analyse company performance.

51

Price Earnings Ratio: where do you get it?

• Our website makes it easy by giving you the PE ratios.

• You simply need to understand what it means.

Pick ’n Pay @ R36 Spar @ R60

52

Using the website

53

Using the website

• The return that you receive from dividends can b

54

Technical analysis

55

The Picture (e.g. Pick ’n Pay)

From the Standard Online Share Trading

Website

56

Three core concepts of technical analysis

• The market discounts everything.

• Price moves in trends.

• History tends to repeat itself.

57

Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis

Charts Financial Statements

Short term long-term

Trading Investing

Focuses on what actually happens in the market

Focuses on what ought to happen in the market

Both have their place, up to the individual how/which to use.

58

Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis

Charts are based on market action

involving:

–Price

–Volume

–Time

Factors involved in price analysis:

–Supply and demand

–Seasonal cycles

–Weather

–Government policy

–Company policy and management

59

In Practice

• One major advantage of technical analysis is that experienced analysts can follow many markets and market instruments, whereas the fundamental analyst needs to know a particular market intimately.

• Use fundamentals to choose and technical's for timing.

60

Confirmation

61

The website (e.g. Pick ’n Pay)

We help you by providing a research report that covers:

• the numbers

• the story

• the picture

From the Standard Bank Online Share Trading Website

62

Profile Consensus forecast

63

Buying and selling shares

64


Top down approach

• Select strong markets

• Select strong sectors within those markets

• Select strong stocks within that sector

65


• Decide what you want to do and capital out lay (quantity).

• Place an order

– Limit price or market price

– Life of trade

• Establish exit strategy

• Start feeling like an owner.

66

What Type Of Order Do I Place?Price:

• Market order – requires immediate execution of the trade at the best possible price available at that time.

Be careful using these orders particularly for warrants as the market can move overnight.

• Limit order– A limit order is an order to buy or sell a predetermined amount of shares at a specified

price or better. Note that a limit order may match over multiple days and hence incur multiple fees.

Life:

• Day order – An order that expires at the end of the business day if it has not been filled.

• Good Till Cancelled (GTC)– An order either to buy or sell a security that remains in effect until the customer cancels

the order or alternatively until it is executed by the broker (valid for 1 month).

Special orders:

• Stop loss– A order that trades after a specific level has been reached (fixed or trailing - valid for 1

months).

67

What Type Of Order Do I Place?

An “at market” order would be purchased at R30.60 for a maximum of 661 shares.

A “limit” order could be placed at say R30.55 and become the best bid to buy.

68

Limit order

69

Market Depth

Bid to Buy Offer to Sell

Number Quantity Price Price Quantity Number

2 200 400 402 600 3

3 450 399 403 2000 5

1 150 398 404 800 4

4 700 397 406 500 1

6 950 396 407 1000 2

70

Market Depth



2 200 400 402 600 3

3 450 399 403 2000 5

1 150 398 404 800 4

4 700 397 406 500 1

6 950 396 407 1000 2

Price (in cents) – Time Priority

Increasing Price Decreasing Price

71

Market Depth



2 200 400 402 600 3

3 450 399 403 2000 5

1 150 398 404 800 4

4 700 397 406 500 1

6 950 396 407 1000 2

Number of individual orders

Total number of shares to be sold

Total number of shares to be bought

72

Market Depth - expand



1 100 400 402 200 1

1 100 400 402 300 1

3 450 399 402 100 1

1 150 398 403 2000 5

4 700 397 404 800 4

73

Market Depth – new order



1 500 402 402 600 3

2 200 400 403 2000 5

3 450 399 404 800 4

1 150 398 406 500 1

4 700 397 407 1000 2

6 950 396

74

Market Depth – left over



2 200 400 402 100 1

3 450 399 403 2000 5

1 150 398 404 800 4

4 700 397 406 500 1

6 950 396 407 1000 2

75

Market Depth – new order



1 1000 402 402 100 3

2 200 400 403 2000 5

3 450 399 404 800 4

1 150 398 406 500 1

4 700 397 407 1000 2

76

Market Depth – partial match



1 900 402 403 2000 5

2 200 400 404 800 4

3 450 399 406 500 1

1 150 398 407 1000 2

4 700 397

77

At market order

78

Market Depth



1 900 402 403 2000 5

2 200 400 404 800 4

3 450 399 406 500 1

1 150 398 407 5000 2

4 700 397 408 500 1

79

Market Depth



1 5000 @ market 403 2000 5

1 900 402 404 800 4

2 200 400 406 500 1

3 450 399 407 5000 2

1 150 398 408 500 1

80

Market Depth



1 5000 @ market 403 2000 5

1 900 402 404 800 4

2 200 400 406 500 1

3 450 399 407 5000 2

1 150 398 408 500 1

81

Market Depth



1 3000 @ market 404 800 4

1 900 402 406 500 1

2 200 400 407 5000 2

3 450 399 408 500 1

1 150 398 410 50 1

82

Market Depth



1 2200 @ market 406 500 1

1 900 402 407 5000 2

2 200 400 408 500 1

3 450 399 410 50 1

1 150 398 413 500 5

83

Market Depth



1 1700 @ market 407 5000 2

1 900 402 408 500 1

2 200 400 410 50 1

3 450 399 413 500 5

1 150 398 414 200 1

84

Market Depth



1 900 402 407 3300 2

2 200 400 408 500 1

3 450 399 410 50 1

1 150 398 413 500 5

4 700 397 414 200 1

85

At market order – final price

• Average price paid

• Brokerage will be charged based on a single transition.

Price Quantity Total403 2000 8,060

404 800 3,232

406 500 2,030

407 1700 6,919

Total 5000 20,241

Average Price = 405c

86

Stop Loss

87

Possible outcomes in the share market

0

-

+

Small Profit

Small Loss

Break Even

BIG LOSS

BIG PROFIT

Use a Stop Loss to Avoid

Big Losses

Make sure you do not lose money and you are half way there!

88

Stop Loss Notification

89

Types of stop losses

• An initial stop is designed to protect your capital.

• A breakeven stop will help lock in a no-loss trade.

• Trailing stops are designed to protect your profit.

• Determine style of stop loss

• Know your intent

• Volatility

• Previous lows

90

Fixed stop loss illustration

91

Trailing stop loss illustration

92

How the stop loss is executed

• Works on the last traded price, not bid and offer

• Market may move overnight

• Example

– Trigger 402c

– Lowest trade price acceptable: 399c

– Order quantity : 2000

93

Stop loss order execution



1 900 402 399 2000 1

2 200 400 408 500 1

3 900 399 410 50 1

1 150 398 413 500 5

4 700 397 414 200 1

94

Costs

95

Projected costs of shares 10,000.00R Uncertificated Securities Tax @ 0.25% 25.00R

STRATE Fees 10.92R Investor Protection Levy 0.03R

Brokerage 70.00R VAT on Charges 11.33R

Total Trading Costs 117.28R

Costs as a % 1.17%

Online Share Trading Costs

• Brokerage is charged at 0.6% of the trade with a minimum fee of R70 plus statutory taxes.

• Monthly fees of R50.00 (incl VAT). This fee waived if you trade 3 or more times in a month.

Worked Example

96

Impact of costs on your investments

20 Year Returns on a lump sum R100,000 investment

R -

R 200,000

R 400,000

R 600,000

R 800,000

R 1,000,000

R 1,200,000

R 1,400,000

R 1,600,000

R 1,800,000

Time

Valu

e o

f In

vestm

en

t

Investment A: Lump sum R100,000 (Initial brokerageat 0.6% plus taxes, 15% growth pa with R50 monthlyfee) e.g. Online Broker - share investment R 99,053

Investment B: Lump sum R100,000 (15% growth pawith 5% upfront fees and annual management fee of2%) e.g. a managed investment R 95,000

A - R1,559,694

B - R1,271,699

Difference of R288K in returns

97

Lessons from the Masters

98

Warren Buffet

Chairman Berkshire Hathaway

• If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.

• Rule No1: Never lose money Rule No2: Never forget rule No1.

• Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.

• Key lesson : Stop loss, education

99

John (Jack) Bogle

Founder and Chairman of The Vanguard Group

If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks.

• Key lesson : Stop loss, know your risk profile

100

Peter Lynch

Former fund manager, today he is vice-chairman of Fidelity

Go for a business that any idiot can run - because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it.

• Key lesson : Know the companies you are investing in.

101

George Soros

Founder of Soros Fund Management

It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how

much you lose when you're wrong.

• Key lesson : Stop loss

102

John Templeton

Founder of the Templeton Group

The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to

sell.

• Key lesson : Be contrarian.

103

Benjamin Graham

“father of value investing”

To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is

harder than it looks.

• Key lesson : Do your home work.

104

Benjamin Graham

“father of value investing”

Intelligent investment is more a matter of mental approach than it is of techniques.

A sound mental approach toward share fluctuations is a touchstone of all successful investment under present-

day conditions .

• Key lesson : Don’t be emotional.

105

Summary

106

Summary

• Investing in the share market makes sense.

• Good companies perform in the long term.

• Jargon can be overcome.

• Research before you buy.

• Buying and selling share is easy.

• Move towards 5 stocks quickly.

107

Next Steps?

108

Attend How to use the website

presentation

All courses can be booked online

109

Subscribe to the Daily Standard

110

Explore the website – Site map

111

Disclaimer

• The information and opinions stated in this document are of a general nature, have been prepared solely for information purposes and do not constitute any advice or recommendation to conclude any transaction or enter into any agreement. It is strongly recommended that every recipient seek appropriate professional advice before acting on any information contained herein. Whilst every care has been taken in preparing this document, no representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or representations. All information contained herein is subject to change after publication at any time without notice. The past performance of any investment product is not an indication of future performance. Online Share Trading is operated by Standard Financial Markets Proprietary Limited Reg. No. 1972/008305/07, a subsidiary of the Standard Bank

Group Limited and authorised user of the JSE Limited.

introduction to investing brought to you by: online share trading presented by: simon pateman brown

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