introduction to fleet planning bruce...
TRANSCRIPT
Introduction to Fleet Planning Bruce Tecklenburg
Network, Fleet and Schedule
Strategic Planning
Module 7: 31 March 2015
Istanbul Technical University
Air Transportation Management
M.Sc. Program
2
Lecture Outline
World Airline Fleets
Commercial Aircraft Manufacturers
Airline Fleet Sizes, Average Seats and Age
Passenger Aircraft Market Categories
Evolution of aircraft types by size and range
Overview of current commercial aircraft types
Narrow-body jet aircraft
Wide-body jet aircraft
Aircraft Orders and Fleet Plans
Current orders by region, type and manufacturer
Focus on emerging global carriers
Turkish Airlines: Orders and fleet outlook
3
FLEET PLANNING
Fleet composition is a long-term strategic decision
Fleet is the total number of aircraft that an airline operates, as well as
the specific aircraft types that comprise the total fleet.
Each aircraft type has different technical performance characteristics
(e.g., payload capacity and “range”)
Affects financial position, operating costs, and especially the ability to
serve specific routes.
Large capital investment with a long-term horizon:
US $50-60 million for narrow-body 150-seat airplane
$180+ million for mid-size (220-300 seats) long-range Boeing 787
$300+ million for largest Airbus A380 (400-550 seats)
Depreciation impacts on balance sheet last 10-15 years
Some aircraft have been operated economically for 30+ years
4
Commercial Aircraft Manufacturers
Boeing (USA)
Largest producer of commercial (and military) aircraft
Acquired McDonnell-Douglas Aircraft in 1997
Airbus (Europe)
Launched as a consortium owned by several European countries in
1967, now publicly traded as “Airbus Group”
Shares most of larger airplane (125+ seat) market with Boeing
Embraer (Brazil)
Developed small regional jets, now focusing on “E-jets” with 75-110
seats
Bombardier (Canada)
Turboprops; also shifting focus from 50-seat regional jets to larger “C-
jets”
5
Airline Fleets – U.S. Airline Fleets are
Substantially Larger
Source: Airline Business Top 200 Airlines Traffic 2013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
TOTA
L A
IRCR
AFT
6
Average Aircraft Size by Region
Courtesy: Kamala Shetty, MIT; Data Source: OAG - Oct. 2010
Predominantly Widebody
Large numbers of
regional aircraft
Turboprop
“Island Hoppers”
7
Average World Wide Fleet Ages
Courtesy: Prof. R. J. Hansman
Data Source: airliners.net, 2014
8
Passenger Aircraft Categories
Commercial aircraft are most commonly defined by their range
and size:
The “range” is the maximum distance that it can fly without stopping for
additional fuel, while still carrying a reasonable payload of passengers
and/or cargo.
The “size” of an aircraft can be represented by measures such as its
weight, its seating or cargo capacity, as indicators of the amount of
payload that it can carry.
Broad categories such as “small, short-haul” or “large, long-
haul” aircraft can include several different aircraft types by
different manufacturers.
Aircraft with similar capabilities are regarded as “competitors” in the
airline’s fleet planning decisions.
For example, the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737-800 are competing
aircraft types, as they are both new generation aircraft with
approximately 160 seats with similar range capabilities.
9
Aircraft Categories - Trends
Historically, largest aircraft were designed for routes with the longest flight distances.
Relationship between aircraft size and range was almost linear.
Airlines wishing to serve a very long-haul non-stop route had to acquire the Boeing 747.
Airlines now have a much wider choice of products by range and capacity in each category:
Range of new aircraft in the “small” category (100-150 seats) has increased dramatically.
US transcontinental routes are now being flown with Boeing 737NG and Airbus 320 series aircraft.
Sizes of new “long-range” aircraft have decreased substantially.
Airlines serve certain lower-demand long-haul non-stop international routes with Boeing 757 (180 seats) e.g., Newark to Lisbon, and Los Angeles to Maui (Hawaii).
10
A318
A319neo
A320
A321
717
737-600
737-700
737-800
737-900ER
757-200
757-300
E135
E145
E170
E175
E190
E195
CRJ-200
CRJ-700
CRJ-900
C110
C130
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
SE
AT
ING
CA
PA
CIT
Y
RANGE (KM)
Narrow-body Jet Aircraft
Newest Aircraft Types in Green
Adapted from: Belobaba et al (2009)
A321neo
737-9 MAX
737-8 MAX
A320neo
737-7 MAX A320
11
Bombardier CRJ 200/700/900/1000
CRJ-200 CRJ-700
CRJ-900 CRJ-1000
12
Embraer E170/E175/E190/E195
E-170 E-175
E-190 E-195
13
Boeing 737NG “Next Generation”
737-700
737-800
737-900ER
14
Airbus 320 Family
A320
A319
A321
15
Boeing 757 (Out of Production)
757-200W 757-300
16
New Single-Aisle Developments
Bombardier C-Series Embraer E2 Family
Boeing 737MAX
Airbus A320neo
17
A350-900
A330-200
A330-300
A340-200
A340-300 A340-500
A340-600
A380-800
747-8
747-400
767-200ER
767-300ER
767-400ER
777-200 777-200ER
777-200LR
777-300 777-300ER
787-8
787-9
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 16000 17000 18000
SE
AT
ING
CA
PA
CIT
Y
RANGE (KM)
Wide-body Jet Aircraft
Newest Aircraft Types in Green
Adapted from: Belobaba et al (2009)
787-10 A350-1000
777-8X
777-9X
18
Boeing 767
767-200 (Out of Production)
767-300ER
767-400ER
19
Airbus A330 / A340
A330-200 A330-300
A340-300 A340-600
A330-300
20
Boeing 787 Dreamliner
787-8 Dreamliner
787-9 Dreamliner
21
Boeing 777
777-200ER
777-300ER
777F
22
Boeing 747
747F
747-400
747-8 Intercontinental
23
Airbus 380
24
New Twin-Aisle Developments
A330neo A350 Family
787-10 Dreamliner
777-8X
777-9X
25
Source: Ascend, March 2015
Jet Aircraft Orders by Region
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Africa Asia-Pacific Europe LatinAm/Carib
Middle East NorthAmerica
Unidentified
Twin-Aisle
Single-Aisle
26
Aircraft Orders by Manufacturer and Type
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
A320 A330 A350 A380 737 747 767 777 787
Source: Ascend, March 2015
Airbus Boeing
27
Emerging carriers have over 800 aircraft
on order; ¾ are for wide-body aircraft
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
A320 A330 A350 A380 737 777 777X 787
Emirates Etihad Qatar Turkish
Source: Ascend, March 2015
28
Turkish Airlines Passenger Fleet (2015)
Airbus A320:
• A319: 14
• A320: 33
• A321: 43
Airbus A330:
• A330-200: 16
• A330-300: 18
Airbus A340:
• A340-300: 6
Boeing 777:
• 777-300ER: 16
Boeing 737NG:
• 737-700: 3
• 737-800: 68
• 737-900ER: 10 Source: Ascend Feb 2015, Excludes wet-leases and subsidiaries
29
Fleet Outlook (2015 - 2021):
Turkish Airlines
Conceptual THY Fleet Plan
2021 Average
In Service On Order 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total Seats/AC
A319 14 14 128
A320 33 33 152
A321 43 25 13 10 2 68 172
A321neo 72 4 16 17 23 12 72 172
A330-200 16 16 242
A330-300 18 12 9 3 30 277
A340-300 6 (3) (3) 0 270
737-700 3 (3) 0 143
737-800 68 20 20 (6) (11) (5) (2) 64 166
737-900ER 10 5 5 15 151
737-8 MAX 55 20 15 20 55 166
737-9 MAX 10 5 5 10 151
777-300ER 16 16 6 7 3 32 326
227 215 30 34 9 30 26 43 10 409
737 Family
777
Total
Fleet Entry / Exit by Year
Airbus
A320 Family
A330
A340
Boeing
30
Fleet Forecast (2021): Turkish Airlines
Airbus A320:
• A319: 14
• A320: 33
• A321: 68
• A321neo: 72
Airbus A330:
• A330-200: 16
• A330-300: 30
Boeing 777:
• 777-300ER: 32
Boeing 737:
• 737-800: 64
• 737-900: 15
• 737MAX: 65
31
Fleet Operating Outlook (2014 - 2021):
Turkish Airlines
Aircraft
Seats Deps/Day Ave. Stage Length Fleet Departures ASKs Fleet Departures ASKs Departures ASKs
Airbus
A319 128 6.2 1,085 14 31,599 4,418,266,617 14 31,599 4,418,266,617
A320 152 5.0 1,258 33 60,717 12,001,582,985 33 60,717 12,001,582,985
A321 172 4.4 1,686 43 69,420 21,278,417,267 68 109,780 21,278,417,267
A321neo 172 4.4 1,686 72 116,238 33,698,309,453
A330-200 242 1.4 2,748 16 8,083 5,604,948,833 16 8,083 5,604,948,833
A330-300 277 2.7 4,729 18 17,586 23,689,686,276 30 29,310 38,391,434,076
A340-300 270 1.8 5,137 6 3,871 5,370,927,937 0 - -
Boeing
737-700 143 5.7 1,112 3 6,218 857,021,015 0 - -
737-800 166 4.1 1,386 68 102,868 22,555,215,003 64 96,817 22,278,283,978
737-900ER 151 3.2 3,018 10 11,565 5,270,931,209 15 17,348 7,906,396,814
737-8 MAX 166 4.1 1,386 55 83,202 19,145,400,293
737-9 MAX 151 3.2 3,018 10 11,565 5,270,931,209
777-300ER 326 1.3 7,702 16 7,550 19,694,856,664 32 15,100 37,914,449,512
Total 227 319,477 120,741,853,806 409 579,759 207,908,421,037 81% 72%
100%
-100%
67%
-100%
-6%
50%
2021 Change
0%
0%
58%
Operating Peformance 2014