introduction to climate change...
TRANSCRIPT
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Introduction to Climate Change Science Part 1 of 2 (part 2 is solutions)
King County Department of Natural Resources and Parks
Matt Kuharic Senior Climate Change Specialist http://www.kingcounty.gov/climate [email protected]
(206) 296-8738
Draft of 2/7/2011
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This presentation provides a brief overview and introduction of a complicated and important topic; key references to learn more are provided here. For a more comprehensive list visit: http://www.kingcounty.gov/environment/climate/climate-change-resources.aspx
King County government relies on peer reviewed scientific research and analysis from academic and government scientists about the causes and impacts of climate change.
The University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (CIG) is an interdisciplinary research group studying the impacts of natural climate variability and climate change on the Pacific Northwest. Through research and interaction with regional stakeholders, the CIG works to increase the resilience of the Pacific Northwest to fluctuations in climate. The CIG's research focuses on four key sectors: water resources, aquatic ecosystems, forests, and coasts. Available: http://cses.washington.edu/cig/
The United State Environmental Protection Agency provides information on climate change for communities, individuals, businesses, states, localities and governments. Available: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/
The Washington State Department of Ecology is an excellent resource for information on: climate change science, Washington state impacts, and state and regional solutions. Available: http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/
How to Learn More – Climate Science
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Presentation Overview - Climate Science Basics - Climate Change Basics - Predicting Future Climate - Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest - Select Local Climate Change Impacts
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Climate Science Basics - Climate vs. Weather - Greenhouse Gases - Greenhouse Effect
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“Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.”
OR
"You pick your vacation destination based on the climate, but pack your suitcase based on the
weather."
Individual weather events do not prove (or disprove) climate change.
Weather vs. Climate: What's the Difference? Learn more: http://cses.washington.edu/cig/pnwc/weathervsclimate.shtml
6 Learn more about the greenhouse effect! Earth Guide at the Scripps Oceanographic Institute http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/climatechange1/02_1.shtml
Earth’s Greenhouse Effect
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Most Important Greenhouse Gases
Source: U.S. EPA 2005
GHGs Source Examples Water: H2O Oceans, rivers, plants, soil Carbon Dioxide: CO2 Combustion of fossil fuels, plant
respiration, oceans, volcanoes Methane: CH4 Mining operations, combustion,
animals, wetlands, landfills Other GHGs : Nitrous oxide (N2O), Ozone (near surface),
Learn more about GHGs: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/index.html
http://www.for.gov.bc.ca
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Climate Change Basics - Past Climate Change - Recent Observations
- GHG Concentrations - PNW Climate
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Past Climate Change
King Street Center
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?
390
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http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=16954
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations
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2010 Warmest and Wettest on Record
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Average annual temperature increased +1.5°F in the PNW during the 20th century
3.6 °F 2.7 °F 1.8 °F 0.9 °F
Cooler Warmer
Mote 2003(a), updated
Temperature Trends (°F per century), since 1920
Key Trends in PNW Climate
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Average annual temperature increased +1.5°F in the PNW during the 20th century
Key Trends in PNW Climate
April 1 snowpack decreased, with losses of 30-60% at many individual stations in the PNW (1950-2000)
Decrease Increase
Mote, P.W. 2003.
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Nearly every glacier in the Cascades and
Olympics has retreated during the past 50-150
years
Photos courtesy of Dr. Ed Josberger, USGS Glacier Group, Tacoma, WA
South Cascade Glacier, 1979 (top)
and 2000 (right)
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Climate Change and King County Rivers
Frequency of trend direction and relative evidence of trends over the period 1962-2008.
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Predicting Future Climate
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Natural and human drivers of climate change
• Solar activity • Volcanic activity • Surface reflectivity • Aerosol concentrations • Greenhouse gas concentrations
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Natural forcing only Human forcing only
Natural and human forcing
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Year to Year Climate Variability La Nina 2010-2011
vs. El Nino 2004-2005
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Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest
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Select Climate Change Impacts - “Other” PNW Impacts - Salmon - Sea Level Rise - Forest and Ecosystem Impacts - Flooding - Diverse Specific Impacts – Parks Division Examples
See also the Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment: http://cses.washington.edu/cig/files/waccia/wacciaexecsummary.pdf
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• Higher winter streamflow • Lower summer streamflow • Decreased water for irrigation, fish, summertime hydropower production • Increased conflict over water • Increased urban demand for water • Potential for extinction of local biodiversity • Increased landslides due to increased winter rainfall • Increased coastal erosion
Early snowmelt;
lower+warmer summer/fall
flows
Floods, warmer temps
Warmer, more stratified, but
upwelling?
Warmer, lower streamflow
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• The average area burned in 2080 is equivalent to the highest one or two fire years in the observed record.
• The BC Ministry of forests predicts mountain pine beetles will kill 80% of Lodgepole Pine forests by 2013.
• ClimaHcally suitable habitat for Douglas-‐fir declines by 2060, even in western Washington.
• Changes in invasive species regimes
LiNell et al. 2009
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• Increase in risk of winter flooding and combined sewer overflows in low- and mid-elevation basins – re: projected shift in
precipitation type, projected increase in precipitation
• Changes in urban flooding less clear – re: importance of freq. and
intensity of storm events rather than changes in avg. conditions
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• Longer summer recreational seasons
• Decreased summer water availability
• Changes in plant and animal species
• Severe weather impacts