1. Statistic analysis of the changes of selected demographic phenomena in Poland in the years 1989-2013

2. Establishing correlation between fertility and affluence of Poles.

THE AIM OF WORK

The poster was prepared on the basis of statistical data derived from national censuses, population records and registration statistics – presented by Central Statistical Office. Factors used: total fertility rate (TFR) – the average number of children born by women of childbearing age; the rate of natural increase (RNI) – the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate; gross domestic product per capita (GDP) – which represents the level of the prosperity in the state; age of women giving birth and education of Poles. Diagrams with gathered material were prepared in Microsoft Excel 2013. Descriptive data method and graphic data presentation were used for analysis.

Poland in the years 1989-2014 by Central Statistical Office, Warsaw, 2014; Information and statistical studies by Central Statistical Office, Warsaw, 2014; International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, 2015; http://stat.gov.pl/obszary-tematyczne/ludnosc/ludnosc/struktura-ludnosc,16,1.html; Graphic comes from: http://www.zb.eco.pl/bzb/27/demograf.htm, http://itvpiaseczno.pl/artykul/demografia-piaseczna-2015/47474, http://pl.freepik.com/darmowe-wektory/ludzie-w-ruchu_782953.htm

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Demography –the study of the size of human populations including the rate of natural increase, migrations and structure of sex, age, occupation, ethnicity and religion. It also concerns the description of changes in the size of population, its structure and density, in its both aspects: historic and prognostic.

INTRODUCTION

• The demographic changes caused the displacement of supreme level of women’s fertility from the age group 20-24 to the age group 25-29. As a consequence, women’s fertility in the age group 30-34 has increased significantly.

• The young generation of Poles primarily decides to get certain level of education and economic stability; only then (being about 30 years old), they choose to start a family and enlarge it subsequently.

• The low birth rate does not guarantee generation renewal. It is generally considered that the rate of the fertility between 2.10-2.15 ensures the simple succession of generations; whereas in Poland in the analyzed period, the rate is far below 2.

• Along with the progressing increase in the affluence and demographic changes, the level of education of Polish population grows; whereas the fertility rate decreases along with the number of births.

CONCLUSIONS

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Live births in thousands Deaths in thousands

MATERIALS AND METHODS

RESULTS

Analysis of the graph (Fig. 1) clearly shows the decrease of population growth throughout the whole analyzed period. Levelling the birth rate and the death rate occurs in 1999. The rate of natural decrease appears in the years 2001-2005 and the highest is in the year 2013.

population in thous.

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

15-19 lat 20-24 lat 25-29 lat 30-34 lat

35-39 lat 40-44 lat 45-49 lat

Years

population in thous.

The analyzed period – from 1989 – shows the constant and clear decrease of women fertility in the age groups 20-24 and 25-29 (Fig. 2). Simultaneously, the number of births increases in the age groups 30-34 and 35-39.

The number of citizens with higher education considerably increases (Fig. 3), whereas the number of people with vocational training decreases. In 2013, the number of university students has increased tenfold compared to 1989. The number of people with general secondary and post-secondary education has also incresed in the analyzed period.

Due to the diagram (Fig. 4), Poles buy bigger flats, and starting from the year 2000 they buy more of them. It mainly indicates the improvement in the standard of living.

tys.

The synthetic picture of economic success constitutes in the increase of GDP per capita (Fig. 5 and Tab. 1). Starting from the beginning of the analyzed period this rate has risen by almost 250%. The rate of fertility has another trend; in 2013 it decreased by 39% reaching 1.26, compared to the beginning of the analyzed period.

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

1

1,4

1,8

2,2

4500

11500

18500

25500

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

PKB per capita (USD) (oś lewa) Współczynnik dzietności (oś prawa)

Years

Type of index/Years Tab. 1. Total fertility rate and GDP per capita in the years 1989-2013

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Total fertility rate 2,063 1,976 1,767 1,554 1,468 1,373 1,315 1,222 1,243 1,306 1,398 1,297 1,256

GDP per capita (USD) 6847 5257 6933 8102 9532 10727 11968 13033 15065 18171 19906 22384 23925

Years

USD

lata

years

years

years

years

years

years

years

GDP per capita (USD) (left axis)

142,2

101,4

77,3

117,7

142 143

77,2 80,1

91

104,1 103,3 104,6

70

90

110

130

150

70

90

110

130

150

1989-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2013

flats in thousands (left axis) usable floor space in m2 (right axis)

The rate of natural increase The rate of

natural decrease

The rate of natural increase The rate of

natural decrease

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

0 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550

Vocational training General secondary and post-secondary Higher education

Years

pupulation in thous.

Years

thous.

Total fertility rate (right axis)