SECTION - 3

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONSAND INTERNAL SECURITY

TOPICS

How close are Iran and the US to war? ........................................................................6

Changes in NATO and security infrastructure ..............................................................9

Generalized System of Preference (GSP) ..................................................................11

Civic unrest across the world ..................................................................................13

India-Pakistan Relations after the abrogation of Article 370 ........................................15

India – Iran relations .............................................................................................17

West Asia Politics and Confl icts ..............................................................................19

Illegal Migration in India ........................................................................................25

In numbers and dimensions, the global refugee crisis ................................................29and India’s refugee saga, from 1947 to 2017

Multi-Track Diplomacy ..........................................................................................32

RCEP: India refused to bite the bullet .......................................................................35

Counter-terrorism Infrastructure in India ..................................................................38

An Appraisal of the Red Corridor .............................................................................40

India’s National Security – Challenges and Priorities ..................................................43

The Crisis in Hong Kong: What to Know ...................................................................46

India-Israel relations and Middle East – Dynamism and Realism ..................................49

‘Changing contours of India’s Soft Power Diplomacy’ .................................................51

US-China Trade War – Implications and Opportunities for India ...................................54

South China Sea – Confl ict, Issues, Problems and challenges .....................................57

India-China Relations ...........................................................................................60

Afghan Peace Process ..........................................................................................63

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How close are Iran and the US to war?

Debates

Following the assassination of Major GeneralQassemSoleimani, President Donald Trump tweeted on Saturday that “If Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets in retaliation, the US would target 52 sites in Iran, some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture”.

BACKGROUNDIran is home to one of the world’s oldest civilisations dating back to 10,000 BC. Its rich heritage and culture is an amalgam of Arab, Persian, Turkish and South Asian cultures.Twenty-four Iranian sites are on UNESCO’s World Heritage List, two of which are natural sites and the rest cultural sites.Among the main World Heritage Sites in Iran are the MeidanEmam and Masjed-e-Jame in Isfahan; the Golestan Palace in the historic heart of Tehran; Pasargadae and Persepolis, capitals of the Achaemenid Empire, founded by Cyrus II and Darius I in the 6thcentury BC; and the archaeological site of Takht-e Soleyman, which has the remains of an ancient Zoroastrian sanctuary.

ANALYSIS

What is the problem with targeting cultural heritage?Following the unparalleled destruction of cultural heritage in World War II, the nations of the world adopted at The Hague in 1954, The Convention for the Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Confl ict.The Rome Statute of 1998 , the founding treaty of the International Criminal Court, describes as a “war crime” any intentional attack against a historical monument, or a building dedicated to religion, education, art, or science.Article 8 of the Rome Statute deals with war crimes.

Article 8(2)(b)(ii) says war crimes include “intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects, that is, objects which are not military objectives”8(2)(b)(ix) mentions “intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military objectives”.

When has cultural property been targeted earlier? During the Siege of Dubrovnik in 1991-92 by the Yugoslav People’s Army, the old town of Dubrovnik in Croatia was targeted in an attempt to wipe out Croatian history and cultural heritage.In 2001, the Taliban destroyed statutes of the Buddha that had been carved into sandstone cliffs in Bamiyan, Afghanistan.In 2006, the UN and the Cambodian government established the Khmer Rouge Tribunal to prosecute the destruction of Cambodia’s cultural assets that included mosques, churches and temples along with other sites of cultural signifi cance.Between 2014 and 2017, the Islamic State destroyed several places of religious and cultural signifi cance.In 2015, the IS captured and destroyed the ancient Syrian city of Palmyra, a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

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US-Iran crisis is pushing India to clarify its standIt is very likely that India is now taking the side of the US against Iran, with the blessings of Israel and Saudi Arabia which is becoming an important partner and investor along with the UAE. In this context, Iran may turn to China more actively.

This US-Pakistan rapprochement is not the only bad consequence that this new crisis in the Middle East may have for India.

Economic sanctions on Iraq will have a major impact on the Indian economy. Iraq continues to be India’s top crude oil supplier and any US-led economic sanctions will force India to look for alternative oil suppliers, as in the case of Iran.

This will substantially increase the costs associated with purchase of crude oil for India and the country’s dependence vis-à-vis the UAE, Saudi Arabia and the US, to which India has already turned, to make up for the anti-Iran sanctions.

India cannot afford to take sides. Energy supplies and the safety and security of its vast diaspora in the Gulf are of utmost importance.

India has a substantial Shia population too, with sympathy for Iran.

What is Iran nuclear deal?It is deal between Iran and six major powers – US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany and European Union signed in 2015, under which Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program in return for the relief from the US and other economic sanctions.

Limitations imposed on Iran:

Iran could only maintain a stockpile of 300 kilograms of low-enriched uranium, compared to the 100,000 kilograms of higher-enriched uranium it once had.

It could enrich uranium to 3.67 percent, which can be used to fuel a reactor but was far below the 90 percent needed to produce a weapon.

The deal limited the number of centrifuges Iran can run and restricted it to an older, slower model.

It asks Iran to reconfi gure a heavy-water reactor so it couldn’t produce plutonium and to convert its Fordo enrichment site into a research centre.

Under it, Iran granted more access to International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and allowed it to inspect other sites.

Benefi ts given to Iran:

In exchange, world powers lifted the economic sanctions that had kept Iran away from international banking and the global oil trade.

It allowed Iran to make purchases of commercial aircraft and reach other business deals.

It also unfroze billions of dollars Iran had overseas.

Why has the US pulled out of Iran nuclear deal and re-imposed sanctions?The deal has a provision that fi fteen years after the deal, restrictions on Iran’s uranium enrichment and stockpile size will end.

The US argued it allows Iran to build a bomb after it expires, something Iran had explicitly promised in the accord not to do.

In theory, Iran could have an array of advanced centrifuges ready for use, the limits on its stockpile would be gone, and it could then throw itself wholeheartedly into producing highly-enriched uranium.

The US withdrew from the deal in October 2018, and revived a range of sanctions against the countries buying oil from Iran.

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Why were waivers given?The US, however, granted a six-month waiver from sanctions to eight countries - China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy, and Greece.

Waivers were given to these countries to give them fl exibility and time to end their dependence on Iranian oil imports.

These countries had showed that they have made important moves toward reducing Iranian oil imports to zero.

What are the consequences of sanctions?International trade : Imposition of sanctions would hinder international companies working in Iran as they could not access US market for their business activities.

Oil prices : US sanctions would reduce Iran’s oil exports and put pressure on global markets resulting in rising oil prices. Further in response, Iran has threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint for Persian Gulf producers, a third of the world oil passes through it. This will further reduce the oil supply to the world.

Nuclear threat : Sanctions would prompt Iran to restart its nuclear programme. It will also affect the denuclearisation efforts taken so far.

West Asia : The sanctions would aggravate the already existing instability in West Asia. It will further bitter the Iran-Israel and Iran-Saudi Arabia relations.

What are the consequences on India?Iran in 2017-18 was India’s third-largest supplier after Iraq and Saudi Arabia and meets about 10 per cent of total needs. The sanctions will signifi cantly reduce the crude supply to India.

The substitute crude suppliers — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Nigeria and the US — do not offer the attractive options that Iran does, including 60-day credit, and free insurance and shipping. The challenge is to secure an alternative supplier at competitive terms in an already tightening global situation.

Current account defi cit : Higher crude oil prices will widen the trade defi cit and current account defi cit, given that the value of imports goes up with crude oil, and that the quantity imported tends to be sticky in general.

Rupee : The currency could be impacted if the trade and current account defi cits were to widen. An increase in the import bill will tend to put pressure on the rupee.

Infl ation : There could be signifi cant impact on infl ation, given how crude oil prices move and the extent to which the government allows the pass-through to the consumer.

Fiscal impact : There could be a two-pronged impact on government fi nances — both on the revenue side and on the expenditure side. On the revenue side, higher oil prices mean more revenue for the states as tax is a percentage of base prices. The expenditure impact would primarily be on account of fuel subsidy outlays-the government has to allocate more funds for subsidy.

WAY FORWARDIndia should make all efforts for a second waiver, keeping in view the close strategic partnership and the new role New Delhi is acquiring in the India-Pacifi c as a counter-balancing power vis-a-vis China.

Indian refi ners should increase their planned purchases from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Mexico, and even the US to make up for the loss of Iranian oil.

India should diversify its source of energy from oil to liquefi ed natural gas and renewable sources like- solar energy, wing energy, hydro power and geothermal energy.

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Changes in NATO and security infrastructure

Debates

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is in a state of transition. The direction of its development has changed, simultaneously with a change in Europe’s attitude toward all the organizations born of the cold war.

Signifi cance of NATOCollective defence : The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was founded in 1949 and is a group of 29 countries from Europe and North America that exists to protect the people and territory of its members. The Alliance is founded on the principle of ‘collective defence,’ meaning that if one NATO Ally is attacked, then all NATO Allies are attacked.Managing crises around the world : Promoting stability in our neighbourhood and protecting our people at home can sometimes mean taking action further afi eld. NATO has also helped to prevent piracy off the Horn of Africa and, since 2016, has helped address the refugee and migrant crisis in Europe.Fighting Terrorism : NATO plays an important role in fi ghting terrorism, contributing 16,000 NATO troops to train local forces in Afghanistan. NATO is also a full member of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS.Troops and Equipment : Whenever NATO carries out a mission, individual Allies commit troops and equipment to be placed under a unifi ed NATO command. These become known as “NATO forces.”NATO’s Command Structure : With so many countries working together, having a clear chain of command is vital. Military and civilian personnel from all member states work together every day within NATO’s ‘Command Structure.’NATO funding : Every NATO country contributes to the costs of running the Alliance. By far the Allies’ biggest contribution comes in the form of taking part in NATO-led missions and operations.NATO funding : Every NATO country contributes to the costs of running the Alliance. By far the Allies’ biggest contribution comes in the form of taking part in NATO-led missions and operations.Cyber Defence : Cyber-attacks are becoming more common, sophisticated and damaging, making cyber defence a top priority for NATO. In fact, NATO now recognises cyberspace as an ‘operational domain’ – just as land, sea or air. NATO helps Allies to boost their cyber defences by sharing information about threats, investing in education and training, and through exercises. NATO also has cyber defence experts that can be sent to help Allies under attack.

Issue 1: objectiveOne of the main issues is that the institution is not set up to deal with the current geopolitical landscape.

Creation and expansion of NATO NATO was created in the aftermath of World War II with the overall aim to protect its members against any threats posed by the Soviet Union. NATO started as a largely political alliance, which changed quickly after the Soviets tested an atomic bomb in 1949, as well as after the Korean War broke out in 1950. The US, Canada, Belgium, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal and the United Kingdom signed the initial treaty on April 4, 1949. NATO has grown from the original 12 countries to an alliance of 29. Several other nations are in membership negotiations.

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Current member countries and the year they joined NATO: Albania (2009), Belgium (1949), Bulgaria (2004), Canada (1949), Croatia (2009), Czech Republic (1999), Denmark (1949), Estonia (2004), France (1949), Germany (1955), Greece (1952), Hungary (1999), Iceland (1949), Italy (1949), Latvia (2004), Lithuania (2004), Luxembourg (1949), Montenegro (2017), Netherlands (1949), Norway (1949), Poland (1999), Portugal (1949), Romania (2004), Slovakia (2004), Slovenia (2004), Spain (1982), Turkey (1952), UK (1949) and US (1949). A key provision of the treaty, the so-called Article 5, states that if one member of the alliance is attacked in Europe or North America, it is to be considered an attack on all members. That effectively put Western Europe under the “nuclear umbrella” of the US.

But the rise of the world’s second-largest economy, China, has posed new challenges to the West and trade and political tensions between Beijing and Washington have come to the fore in the last two years. The disagreements have involved the tech sector with the U.S. taking steps to ban the Chinese fi rm Huawei from selling its technology in the United States.

As the Chinese model will be the main competitor to liberal democracy, a key question will be how the Allies handle the rise of China. It is not a question of seeing China as the next military threat but how best to understand it and engage it.

Issue 2: fundingAll NATO allies agreed to move towards spending two percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on defence by 2024, but in 2019 Berlin announced that its own fi gure was set to fall in the coming years, from 1.37 percent in 2020 to just 1.25 percent in 2023. German Chancellor Angela Merkel had earlier pledged to spend 1.5 percent by 2024.

In 2018, only seven of NATO’s 29 member states hit the two-percent target. Trump has criticized his NATO allies on different occasions for not respecting the 2% of GDP (gross domestic product) contribution rule. At the same time, some European leaders have grown hesitant to the U.S.′ commitment to the organization, given the president’s “America fi rst policy”.

Issue – 3: Aggressive and resurgent Russia under PutinRussian President Vladimir Putin warned NATO against cultivating closer ties with Ukraine and Georgia - which share a border with Russia - saying such a policy was irresponsible and would have unspecifi ed consequences for the alliance.

Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014 and its intervention in Syria’s war in 2015 have already refl ected NATO in weak state.

Russia is also sowing discord in the NATO alliance by selling to NATO member Turkey the S-400 air defence system. The US has halted delivery of equipment related to its F-35 fi ghter jets to Turkey over its S-400 plans.

WAY FORWARD:

One of NATO’s biggest success stories, since the end of the Cold War, has been to induce around 40 other countries to form structured partnerships with it. These have been based on mutual benefi t. Partners have contributed troops to NATO-led operations, while having access to a multinational forum to exchange views and develop practical cooperation on shared security concerns. Partnering with Allies has made their own role in international security more substantive. Interoperability has been as much intellectual as military and practical. Partners have been attracted to the Atlantic Alliance as a community of democracies, while strengthening NATO’s legitimacy in the United Nations and the wider world. In short, a win-win outcome. But this is now in danger of being lost as the Alliance’s priorities shift and the focus swings back to collective defence.

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Generalized System of Preference (GSP)

Debates

A group of 25 infl uential American lawmakers has urged the US Trade Representative (USTR) not to terminate the GSP programme with India after the expiry of the 60-day notice.

They urged to continue negotiating the deal as it protects and promotes jobs that rely on trade both imports and exports with India.

Further, it has been said that, American companies that rely on duty-free treatment for India under the GSP will pay hundreds of millions of dollars annually in new taxes. In the past, even temporary lapses in such benefi ts have caused companies to lay off workers, cut salaries and benefi ts, and delay or cancel job-creating investments in the United States.

ABOUT:India has been the largest benefi ciary of this US GSP programme.

In retaliation to US removing India from the list of GSP benefi ciaries, it has proposed higher tariffs on high- value US goods.

But it has — for an unprecedented seventh time — postponed these proposed higher tariffs on high-value goods from Washington, hoping to get a reversal on the US position.

The government has decided to extend the deadline one last time as it awaits a fi nal confi rmation from the US, set to come in the form of a presidential decree.

BACKGROUND:The US last year announced that it will review the eligibility criteria of India currently benefi ted under the GSP.

US President Trump in a letter to Congress had said that India’s termination from GSP follows its failure to provide the United States with assurances that it will provide equitable and reasonable access to its markets in numerous sectors.

Hence, on March 4, President Donald Trump announced that the US intends to terminate India’s designations as a benefi ciary developing country under the GSP programme.

The USTR through a simple notifi cation in federal register can formally terminate GSP benefi ts to India.

ANALYSIS

What is Generalized System of Preference (GSP)?It is the largest and oldest United States trade preference program to provide opportunities for many of the world’s poorest countries to use trade to grow their economies and climb out of poverty.

It is designed to promote economic development by allowing duty-free entry for thousands of products from 120 designated benefi ciary countries and territories.

It was established by the Trade Act of 1974.

Besides India, some other benefi ciaries are- China, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan.

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Why was it introduced?It promotes economic growth and development in the developing world.

It promotes sustainable development in benefi ciary countries by helping these countries to increase and diversify their trade with the United States. The program provides additional benefi ts for products from least developed countries.

The US also benefi ts from this programme as it moves GSP imports from the docks to the US consumers, farmers, and manufacturers. It supports tens of thousands of jobs in the US.

The other benefi t is that GSP boosts American competitiveness by reducing the costs of imported inputs used by U.S. companies to manufacture goods in the United States.

The GSP is important to U.S. small businesses, many of which rely on the programmes’ duty savings to stay competitive.

The program also supports progress by benefi ciary countries in affording worker rights to their people, in enforcing intellectual property rights, and in supporting the rule of law.

Why is the USA removing India from its list of GSP benefi ciaries?The US conducts periodic reviews of the programme. The review for India, taken up last year, focussed on whether it is meeting the eligibility criterion that requires a GSP benefi ciary country to assure the U.S. that it will provide equitable and reasonable access to its market.

The Trade Representative accepted two petitions asserting that India did not meet the criterion: one from the National Milk Producers Federation and the U.S. Dairy Export Council, and the other from the Advanced Medical Technology Association.

India wants dairy products, which could form part of religious worship, certifi ed that they were only derived from animals that have not been fed food containing internal organs. Other exporters such as EU nations and New Zealand certify their products, but the U.S. has so far not done so.

Second, India has recently placed a cap on the prices of medical devices, like stents, that impacts U.S. exports of such devices.

Hence, as India is not providing equal access of its market to some US products, it is considering removing India from its list of GSP benefi ciaries.

What will be the impact of this termination of GSP on India?Some of the Indian export industries may not feel the pinch of the GSP removal for India by the U.S because the loss for the industry amounts to about 190millionoftotal5.6 billion exports, falling under the GSP category, which is a small percentage.

But specifi c sectors, such as gems and jewellery, leather, and processed foods will lose the benefi ts of the programme.

Producers from sectors may be able to bear 2-3% of the loss from the change, but not more. The loss, in export in these sectors like some kinds of rice, may even exceed 10%. Hence, it will impact their business.

The landed price of goods from India will now be higher than it was when GSP was in force. Hence, consumers of those products in the U.S. would gravitate to exporters that enjoy the GSP benefi ts and hence are able to offer lower prices. The customers of Indian product will get diverted to other nation and it is diffi cult to get back a customer that a competitor takes away.

The most potential competitor is China. Several specifi c products, such as bulk industrial bags, footwear, and plastics are likely to become less competitive against Chinese products without the GSP benefi ts. For instance, India and China are the two major suppliers of these FIBC bags to the USA, commanding an almost equal share of the market. Without GSP benefi ts, exported industrial bags will become less competitive vis-à-vis China, allowing the Chinese to increase their market share.

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WAY FORWARD:The basic philosophy behind GSP was to provide duty free imports to US from developing countries. India is still a developing country, hence, USTR should continue to include India in this programme which is in line with its founding principle.The US should certify its dairy products. This is not something which is new neither it is something which is diffi cult to do. Some European countries and New Zealand are already certifying their dairy products. This certifi cation will not cause any loss to the exporters of the US, but it will only increase their business and profi ts.The issue of cap on costlier medical devices is reasonable seeing the poverty in India. However, India can allow costlier imports as the rich in India can afford it. Though this step will not benefi t the larger chunk of population constituted by the middle and lower class.Lastly, if India is removed from the GSP programme, the government should offer fi scal help to the affected sectors. This will save lay-offs and salary cuts for Indian employees.

Civic unrest across the world

Debates

Civic unrest can be defi ned as mobilization of common citizens of a nation generally against some policies/actions of the incumbent government which is creating discontent among the common people of that nation.

The civil unrest is both good and bad for the democratic order of nation and world. It is good as it enhances the accountability of the government through informed and aware citizenry progressing towards good governance and bad because sometimes violent nature of the protest lead to loss of life and property of nation leading to disruption of trade and economy throughout the world threatening the very nature of elected government which came into power through democratic process.

Analyzing recent civic unrest throughout the world:HONGKONG: Hong Kong is a semi-autonomous territory of China referred to as special administered region of China, which it got from UK in 1997, through which it gets special privileges like its own currency, passport for citizens, their own immigration agencies, etc.

The recent protest was against the extradition bill proposed by China, whereby it could extradite people from Hong Kong to China facing some charge of offence. This was perceived as a threat to the autonomy of Hong Kong by common people who came on roads against such draconian bill, which was fi nally withdrawn by the government.

Iran: Facing economic sanctions from USA, the nation is into economic turmoil due to collapse of economy and rising infl ation leading to unrest among common people.

The scrapping of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action by USA and subsequent clashes with USA after the death of QassemSuleimani has further aggravated the discontentment among common people.Iran’s elected government under the guidance of cleric Ayatollah Ali Khomeini now has multiple challenges of uplifting the economy, tackling US pressure, maintaining international ties and resurrecting its nuclear program.

France: France faced worst civil unrest since last 50 years popularly known as the Yellow vest movement.It was led by right wing supporters which protested against increase in price of petrol and diesel meant to push people towards environment friendly vehicles.

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The protest against environment friendly move was just a triggering point culminated along with issues like Xenophobia (due to immigrants), abortion laws, etc., supported by far right ideology.

Chile: The major reason for the unrest was high income inequality in the nation.Chile’s economy runs majorly on its copper mines owned by few and the masses remain poor. The immediate cause of protest was hike in fares of public transport to augment government treasury which was a direct burden on common people.

Indonesia:The people of Papua residing on eastern sides of island archipelago are demanding independence from Indonesia based on ethic, cultural and religious differences. The immediate incident was killing of 16 Indonesian people, which led to suppression by Indonesian government.Venezuela: Venezuela’s economy runs majorly on its oil exports. However, due to sanctions imposed by USA on political grounds, the economy of Venezuela started collapsing leading to conditions of hyperinfl ation and devaluation of currency to extreme limits. This economic collapse led to civic unrest among the common people against the incumbent President, Nicolas Maduro.Similarly, there were civic unrest earlier in West Asia(Arab Spring) and other nations.

Major reasons of the protests:Policies of government not coherent with the demand of common people and appear majorly supportive of elites but suppressant of masses, e.g., Chile, Arab Spring.Draconian initiatives whereby people feel stripped off their rights and being coerced into stringent policies- e.g. Protests in Hong KongTrade Wars leading to decline of global trade affecting the economy of nations leading to unrest among common people.Coercive international practices being pursued by dominant international players like USA in pursuance of its policies e.g. role of USA in Iran and Venezuela and counter measures taken by China and Russia.Domino effect among the people due to increased awareness and internet penetration. Rising global income inequality. Secessionist tendency e.g. Indonesia.

Effect on India:Despite being largest and a strong democratic nation, civic unrest is not new to the nation. India has witnessed major civic unrest in the form of movements like Narmada BachaoAndolan, Chipko movement, SaptaKranti, India against corruption led by Anna Hazare, etc. Recently, a major civic unrest is being witnessed in the form of protest against Citizenship Amendment Act and National Register for citizens. This has questioned the major elements like balance of power in democratic structure, role of media and social media in the related issue, uprightness of institutions like judiciary and the role of executive in policy implementation.

What should India do:Democracy is about listening to the faintest of the faint voice. It is about doing away with majoritarianism through the proactive role of institutions of democracy. The elected government should ensure that while pursuing its policies, the poor and marginalized doesn’t suffer so that the major ethos of our constitution like secularism, liberty, equality and fraternity do not get compromised. Democracy implies power in the hands of people and our government should ensure that ‘we the people’ remain true power holder. The government could:

Go through feedback from the people on the bills and Acts concerned with civic unrest. Ask for advice from major civil societies and private players who are getting involved and affected through the government policies.Ensure that independence of institutions is maintained for scrutiny of the policy e.g. the independence of the Supreme Court.

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Amend undesirable clauses if they appear anti-democratic. For the issues like separatism which surface in Northeast regions and Kashmir, lessons could be learnt from Indonesia of do’s and don’ts.

What should world do:The role of institutions like United Nation becomes important in mediation, whereby the government/external nation could be persuaded for a desired role. For example, the role of USA in the political situation of Iran and Venezuela could be checked.Trade war and its ill effects affecting the economy of nations and regions could be resolved for larger global interests by bringing major rivals on a common table. Role of organizations like G-20 and WTO could be institutional in this.Accountability of the nations could be ensured by making them answerable on common global platforms like BRICS, OECD, SCO, etc.

India-Pakistan Relations after the abrogation of Article 370

Debates

Pakistan’s leadership has “limited options” to respond to India’s decision on Jammu and Kashmir as many analysts view that Islamabad has “little credibility” on the issue given its long history of covertly supporting militant groups there, according to a US Congressional report. The Government of India removed the special status for Jammu and Kashmir by abrogating Article 370.

BACKGROUND:It was after the Indian independence that ‘Instrument of Accession” was signed between Government of India and Maharaja Hari Singh, which also incorporated Article 370 in the Indian Constitution, accounting for temporary special privileges for the State of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan attempted to raise the Kashmir issue in international forums like United Nation trying to build pressure on India but nothing fruitful to avail.Shimla agreement: It was after 1971 India-Pakistan war that India forced Pakistan to agree on “Kashmir will be solely a bilateral issue between the two nations and no third party will be entertained in dispute resolution”.

Equations after the abrogation of Article 370 by India:Pakistan’s immediate response: “As a party to this international dispute, Pakistan will exercise all possible options to counter the illegal steps”. The statement itself shows the aggressive stance of Pakistan on the issue. It immediately announced the partial closure of airspace for India, downgrading of diplomatic ties with India, observing 15th August as Black Day. The three major factors that could determine the relations between the two nations are:

The length of India’s lockdown and subsequent protests: As the lockdown is lifted, what would be the intensity of protest by masses and reactions by militant outfi ts allegedly getting support from Pakistan.Pakistan’s diplomatic attempts to win global support for its position on Kashmir. Motivation for Pakistan to avoid being blacklisted by Financial Action Task Force: Since Pakistan is undergoing economic crisis with GDP growth around 3.3% and it has asked for $6 billion fi nancial support from IMF, being blacklisted from FATF could further its woes.

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Overall the relations could be categorized into following 4 categories:Trade relations Diplomatic relations Security issues Miscellaneous

Trade relations:The India-Pakistan offi cial bilateral trade was worth about $2.56 billion in 2018-19. India’s major exports are chemicals and textiles mainly operating through sea route while major imports are vegetable fats and oils and minerals operating mainly through land route via Wagah-Attari border. MFN was already taken away from Pakistan and after recent development, the bilateral trade has dropped down to around $570 million (Source: Bureau for Research on Industry and Economic Fundamentals). Traders on both the sides are suffering heavily.While Indian economy would have nominal impact, Pakistan would be impacted heavily with the reasons being:

Pakistan sells 1.86% of its total exports to India while for India, it accounts for merely 0.6%. India’s GDP is nearly 10 times to that of Pakistan with better growth rate impacting it with less intensity. Pakistan nearly exports fi nished products while India exports raw materials for industries impacting Pakistan’s business.

Closing the trade ties takes only one small step while building them takes very long.

Diplomatic relations:Pakistan raised the issue on international platforms like United Nation and European Union whose response was as follows:

European Union: Both nations should reopen dialogue which is crucial to de-escalate tensions in Jammu and Kashmir.United Nation: Dialogue could help resolve the issue.Pakistan is trying to earn trust and support from international community while India enjoys more favorability at world stage. A rising power with growing economy and large population, India offers attractive partnerships and marketing opportunities. Unsurprisingly, most foreign governments sided with India viewing Kashmir as an internal matter or bilateral dispute with exception of China due to its claim on some territory of Ladakh.

SECURITY ISSUE:With growing discontentment in the Kashmir valley, there could be threat of militant uprising with support from Pakistan and regional instability in Afghanistan. The way ahead for India could be in terms of De-radicalization initiatives, strengthening surveillance and monitoring initiatives along with intelligence and border management. Integrated Border Management System could be of help here.

Miscellaneous issues:Ban on all cultural exchanges by Pakistan like movies, arts and dramas. Closing of airspace partially. Downgrading diplomatic ties. Indus Water Treaty could be affected if India decides to utilize its share of water of Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers.Banning of Samjhauta express, Thar express and Lahore-Delhi Dosti bus service.

For too long India had adopted a defensive approach on Kashmir, accepting the talks on the “outstanding issue” of Jammu and Kashmir, tolerating terrorism in order to keep the bilateral dialogue alive. Now that Kashmir’s internal status in India has been radically changed and it has become a Union territory, the basis of bilateral dialogue with Pakistan has disappeared. For India, there is now no “outstanding issue of Kashmir” except

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India’s claim on PoK. Thus focus of talks for India has changed from Jammu and Kashmir to Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.

As per the United Nation, Article 370 doesn’t fi gure in any UN resolution on Kashmir. It was inserted in the Indian Constitution in 1954 unilaterally by India, many years after the UN resolutions on J&K and thus, it can be unilaterally removed. UNSC would not take cognizance of any Pakistan complaint.

India – Iran relations

Debates

One of the most diffi cult tasks that the Indian foreign policy-makers has been facing on and off is to balance their relations with Iran, while enhancing their proximity with the global superpower, the United States.

ABOUT:

Present advice of the U.S. administration to the oil importing countries to stop all oil purchases from Iran is defi nitely not good news for New Delhi.

Iran was until 2006 India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil. But it dropped to number seven by the end of 2013-14 importing only 6 per cent.

However, India continues to be Iran’s second-largest buyer, next only to China. In terms of quantity, India’s imports came down from 27.14 million tonnes in 2016-17 to 17.62 million tonnes during 2018-2019.

More than oil, the current diplomatic tussle gives an opportunity to analyze the criticality of:

How to re-balance and stick to long term policy alignments in the wake of USA’s shifting stance?

Can USA guarantee stability in oil supply and price levels post departure of Iran’s oil from the market?

Who would ‘tame’ OPEC’s hegemony and why?

If not Iran, where else will India go to access Central Asia?

BACKGROUND:

India’s indifferent relations with China and Pakistan mean that Iran provides the only access to the untapped markets of Afghanistan and Central Asia for Indian goods, as well as India’s only option for tapping the vast untapped energy and other mineral resources of the region.

Iran also provides India the shortest access to the vast energy resources of the Caspian basin and the Caucasus region.

The growing Indian economy not only requires the vast untapped markets of the central Eurasian landmass, but also needs newer sources of energy supplies.

For fi ve centuries prior to the British rule, the Persian language was the second language in most of South Asia. It became the language of the elite in many princely states and the medium for higher education.

The Urdu language, which is the offi cial language of Pakistan and is spoken widely across India and other countries in South Asia, is written in the Persian script and is deeply infl uenced by the Persian language. There are similarities between the oldest Indian scriptures, the Vedas, and the Iranian Avesta.

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ANALYSIS

Criticality of the Civilizational links:Iran has come to symbolise the aspirations of Shias worldwide. Accordingly, in India, there is strong support for the Iranian viewpoint amongst the Shia clergy as well as the masses.In cities like Lucknow, this pro-Iran sentiment is clearly discernable to any observer. There are approximately 25 million Shias in India, who visit various places of pilgrimage in Iran and look up to Iran and the Iranian clergy for spiritual guidance.Besides Shias, the miniscule but economically signifi cant Parsi (Zoroastrian) population of India has its centres of pilgrimage in Iran. It also has a small Zoroastrian minority still living there, with whom Indian Parsees have emotional bondsOne of the oldest continuously inhabited civilizations, it forms a bridge between the Semitic world and the Indo-Aryan civilization of South Asia and has had strong historical linkages with the Indian civilization.Despite strong convergence, Indo-Iran relations in recent times have been affected by Iranian relations with the US.The identifi cation of Shiite masses with Iran allows it a signifi cant role in Afghanistan, which not only is a neighbouring country, but also has a substantial Shia population.

Geo-economic signifi cance of Iran:The main contributory factor to Iran’s signifi cance continues to be its huge hydrocarbon resource, which contributes to 80 per cent of its exports.Moreover, Iran’s energy resources have gained further signifi cance with the depletion of energy resources in other oil producing states.From India’s point of view, Iran’s energy resources provide one of the closest and cheapest energy resources available to fuel India’s growth.Accordingly, India has been looking at the North South Transport Corridor and Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline to resolve its energy shortages.The IPI was proposed as a pipeline that would transport 36 billion cubic metres of gas every year from Bandar Abbas to Calcutta. Of this, 70 per cent gas was meant for India while 10 and 20 percent were meant for Iran and Pakistan respectively.Despite huge oil reserves, Iran lacks adequate refi ning capacity and as against an annual consumption of 64.5 million litres of petrol, its refi neries can refi ne only 43 million litres, which forces it to import approximately one-third of its consumption.Iran has been a major destination for the products of some Indian refi neries in the private sector, which are unable to market their products locally as the petroleum products are subsidised by the government.

Strait of Hormuz dilemma:One of the most signifi cant capabilities of Iran is its ability to disrupt maritime access to the Persian Gulf through the narrow Strait of Hormuz.The disruption of oil and gas production or its transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, would lead to a big spurt in the prices of oil and gas, which, in all probability, would create a major global economic crisis.Even if the strait is not closed, any confl ict in the region could increase the global oil prices drastically.

Iran factor can infl uence remittance earning:Iran has the capability to create disturbances in any of the Persian Gulf states. The presence of a substantive Shia population in most of these states further increases Iran’s leverage.There is a huge Indian Diaspora in these states and a major source of foreign exchange earnings for India isthe remittances sent by overseas Indians. In fact, India tops the global list of countries receiving remittances.

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But, is it all bonhomie?The issue that has drawn maximum attention on Iran in recent times is its attempt to set up a uranium enrichment facility. It does not serve India’s interests to have another nuclear state in its vicinity. Iran’s bomb may lead to an arms race in the Gulf.

Despite the recent bonhomie between India and Iran, successive Iranian regimes have, by and large, taken an anti-India stance on Kashmir. Iran had provided material support to Pakistan during both the 1965 and 1971 Wars.

Anyhow, Iran is geo-politically important for India:Iran’s signifi cance for India as gateway to Eurasia, its growing role and levers in West Asia and Afghanistan make it diffi cult for India to abandon Iran under the U.S pressure.

Regionally, India needs Iran both for its connectivity projects INSTC and Chabahar, support and engagement in Afghanistan and its cooperation to maintain balanced ties with China, Pakistan and Russia.

Summing up:To conclude, it would not be incorrect to state that Iran’s unique geography, its population and nature have bestowed upon it a unique strategic signifi cance, making it one of the important players in the global arena.

From India’s perspective, good relations with Iran are an essential imperative for India’s sustained growth and development.

Its energy resources could easily speed up India’s growth and its landmass could provide Indian manufacturers’ access to Central Asia and the Caucasus.

On the other hand, Iran’s nuclear weapons programme does pose a threat to regional and global peace. It could also irrevocably disturb the balance of power in the geo-strategically signifi cant Persian Gulf.

Any disturbance in the region could adversely affect India’s economic well-being. The recent accord between the West and Iran has given diplomacy a chance.

West Asia Politics and Conflicts

Debates

The regional dynamics of West Asia is rapidly changing. Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey are contending each other’s views and are divided on the basis of their deep vested interests. Recently, United States announced its pull-out from Syria. The complicated and multifaceted nature of West Asia politics and confl ict has roots in the region’s history, which warrants an in-depth assessment.

BACKGROUND:Strategic location: Geopolitically, West Asia occupies an important position in international relations due to its geographical location and proximity to continents and countries –

South Asia, China, Central Asia, Europe, and Africa. Trade routes and birthplace of Abrahamic religions: The region is strategically signifi cant due to its enormous energy resources, trade route links to different parts of the world and for fact that it is the place of origin for the Abrahamic religions.

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Energy resources: It is the world largest oil-producing region accounting for 34% of world production, 45% of crude oil exports and 48% of oil proven reserves.

All powers seek a stake in the affairs of the region due to the abundance of natural resources. Instability and confl icts : It is also a region plagued with instability largely due to the involvement of external forces, and sometimes due to internal confl icts.Geography: West Asia is the westernmost sub region of Asia. It includes Anatolia, the Arabian Peninsula, Iran, the Levant, Mesopotamia, the Sinai Peninsula, and Trans-caucasia.

The region is considered to be separated from Africa by the Isthmus of Suez, and separated from Europe by the waterways of Turkish Straits and the drainage divide of the Caucasus Mountains.

Population: 20 countries are located fully or partly in Western Asia, out of which 13 are part of the Arab world.

The most populous countries in Western Asia are Turkey (partly in Southeast Europe), Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen.The total population of Western Asia is estimated to be 300 million (as of 2015).

ANALYSIS

Political history of the region – A time lineMcMahon–Hussein Correspondence 1915 –16: Under this correspondence, the Britain offered Arabs across the Middle East self-rule in exchange for their aid in defeating the Ottoman Empire during the First World War.Sykes-Picot Agreement 1916: Britain and France sign a secret pact outlining their spheres of control in Middle East after the First World War. Palestine is designated for international administration pending consultations with Russia and other powers. The agreement is seen by Arabs as a betrayal of the Hussein-McMahon correspondence.Balfour Declaration 1917: It was a public statement issued by the British government during the First World War announcing support for the establishment of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine, then an Ottoman region with a small minority Jewish population.

Later in the period, many Jews arrived in Palestine. Arab-Israeli wars: After the arrival of Jews, many wars took place between the Arab and Israeli coalitions, in which sides were often changed depending on changing scenarios.

The Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), which would later play a signifi cant role in Arab politics, was founded in Cairo by the Arab League in 1964.In 1967, Israeli strikes against Egypt and Syria launched the Six Day War. Israel has occupied the West Bank, Arab East Jerusalem, and Syria’s Golan Heights ever since.The Yom Kippur War of 1973 was also one of the Arab-Israeli wars.

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Camp David Accor d 1979: In 1956, Egypt nationalised the Suez Canal and took control over the Sinai Peninsula. This led to further confrontation between Egypt and Israel.

Finally, in 1979, a peace deal was reached between Egypt and Israel through the Camp David Accord. Egypt became the fi rst Arab country to recognise Israel.Following Egypt’s peace agreement with Israel, Arab League suspended Egypt’s membership to the league.

Iranian Revolution 1979: The Iranian Revolution was a series of events that involved overthrow of the last monarch of Iran, and replacement of his government with an Islamic republic under Ayatollah Rohullah Khomeini, a leader of one of the factions in the revolt.

This movement against the United States-backed monarchy in Iran was supported by various leftist and Islamist organizations and student movements.Since the establishment of Iran as an Islamic Republic, governments of United States and Iran have been at odds.Iran is also the largest Shia majority country in the Arab region, which often brings it at odds with Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states in the region.

First Intifada1987: The First Intifada (uprising) was a Palestinian uprising against the Israeli occupation of West Bank and Gaza. The uprising lasted from December 1987 until the Madrid Conference in 1991, though some date its conclusion to 1993, with the signing of the Oslo Accords.

It is during this time that Hamas was created from the Gaza wing of Muslim Brotherhood.Muslim Brotherhood was a Sunni Islamist religious, political, and social movement founded in Egypt in 1928.

Iraq–Iran war, 1980 – 88: Iraq invaded Iran in 1980 because it was worried that the 1979 Iranian Revolution would cause Iraq’s Shi’ite majority to rebel against its Ba’athist Sunni government, led by Saddam Hussein. Roots of the war also lay in a number of territorial and political disputes between Iraq and Iran.

Iraq wanted to seize control of the oil-rich Iranian border region of Khūzestān.Iraq also wanted to assert its sovereignty over both banks of Shaṭṭ al-ʿArab (ArvandRud), which formed a historical border between the two countries.Iraq’s war effort were openly fi nanced by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other neighbouring Arab states and was tacitly supported by US and Soviet Union, while Iran’s only major allies were Syria and Libya.Iraq was said to have used Chemical weapons in the war, while Iran counter attacked using revolutionary militia (Revolutionary Guards).Iraq made many attempts to sue for peace, but it was fi nally in 1988 when Iran accepted the UN-brokered ceasefi re.

Iraq invades Kuwait 1990: Kuwait became an independent nation in 1961, a move that the Iraqi government did not support. Iraq claimed that Kuwait was created by British imperialism and it was actually an extension of Iraq.

Kuwait fi nanced Iraq’s war on Iran: Fearing Iranian Revolution would move within its borders, Kuwait provided fi nancial support to Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War. Later, Iraq was unable to repay Kuwait and asked for loan forgiveness which the country denied. Kuwait did not reduce oil production: Iraq-Kuwait relations were also strained because Kuwait did not comply with Iraq’s suggestion of reducing its oil production in order to increase prices. Furthermore, Iraq accused Kuwait of slant-drilling in the Rumaila fi eld in Iraq. This fi nally culminated into Iraq’s attack on Kuwait in 1990. Operation Desert Storm , an international coalition, led primarily by the US forces, launched air strikes and ground invasion into Iraq. The Iraqi military was unable to defend itself. The US established an air base within the country.Confl ict ended through a formal resolutionpassed by the UNSC in 1991. Since then, the US has maintained a military presence in Kuwait.

Middle-East peace Conference and Oslo Declaration: In 1991, Israeli, Syrian, Lebanese, Jordanian and Palestinian delegations attend the Middle East peace conference, which opens dialogues on Arab-Israeli and Israeli-Palestinian relations.

In the Oslo Declaration of Principles 1993, PLO and Israel agree to recognise each other.

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In 1995, an Interim agreement on the future of Israeli-occupied Gaza and West Bank was signed by Israel and the PLO. This agreement recognised the formation of a Palestinian Interim Self-Government Authority - an elected council.

Second Intifada 2000: Over a period of time, many instances happened that stalled reaching of a “fi nal status” agreement between Israel and Palestine at the 2000 Camp David Summit of which US was also a part.

Ariel Sharon’s visit: Finally, Second Intifada began in 2000 when Palestinians rioted after Ariel Sharon, of the Likud party in Israel, visited the contended site of Temple Mount (Noble Sanctuary) in Jerusalem. In 2005, leaders from Israel, Palestinian Authority (PA), Jordan and Egypt met in Sharm-el-Sheikh to discuss ways towards ending the four year intifada. Fatah and Hamas confl ict: 2006 was witness to an inside confl ict between the two main Palestinian political parties, Fatah and Hamas, resulting in split of PA in 2007. The reconciliation process and unifi cation of Hamas and Fatah administrations remains un-fi nalized even today.

Lebanon war 2006: In 2006, Hezbollah conducted a cross-border raid on Israeli border towns. This led to confl icts between the two nations, with unprecedented Iranian military support to Hezbollah. Later in the year, a UN-brokered ceasefi re was reached.

HezbollahHezbollah is a Shia Islamist political party and militant group based in Lebanon. It was founded in the early 1980s as part of an Iranian effort to aggregate a variety of militant Lebanese Shia groups into a unifi ed organization. Hezbollah acts as a proxy for Iran in the on-going Iran–Israel proxy confl ict. Iran also supported Hezbollah during the South Lebanon confl ict (1985–2000).

Arab Spring – Arab Spring 2.0Tunisian Revolution 2010: Also called the Jasmine Revolution, this was a campaign of civil resistance. It led to the ousting of long-time president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011. It eventually led to a thorough democratisation of the country.

The effect of Tunisian Revolution spread strongly to fi ve other countries: Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain; where either the regime was toppled or major uprisings or social violence took place, including riots, civil wars or insurgencies.

Egyptian revolution 2011: In 2011, a mass protest movement took place in Egypt which ultimately forced long time president Hosni Mubarak from offi ce. After this, a political crisis ensued, with Supreme Council of the Armed Forces taking control of the country until after a series of popular elections, Muslim Brotherhood came to power in 2012.

However, disputes between elected Islamist president Mohamed Morsi and secularists continued until Morsi was overthrown in 2013.Abdel Fattah el-Sisi , who announced the overthrow of Morsi, won the 2014 elections with a landslide victory and became the president of Egypt.

Yemeni crisis: Yemeni Crisis began with the 2011–12 revolution against President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had led Yemen for more than three decades. The opposition groups charged Saleh with fi nancial corruption and criticized him for being backed by Saudi Arabia and United States. After a mediated agreement between the Yemeni government and opposition groups, President Saleh left offi ce in 2012, and former vice president, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi acquired offi ce.

However, the new government struggled to unite the fractious political landscape of the country, especially facing threats from the Houthi rebels.Changing stance of Houthi rebels: Houthis were initially one among the many oppositions groups against President Saleh, but later in 2014-15, with Saleh’s help, Houthis announced the fall of President Hadi’s government and took control of most northern parts of Yemen. Later Houthis also executed Saleh on charges of treason.Houthis in power but not recognised: Since then, Houthi’s are in power and enjoy support. But they have been resisting Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen (with intelligence and logistical support of the US), which doesn’t recognise the Houthi government and seeks to restore previous government to power. Houthis are supported by Iran in their fi ght against the Saudi coalition.

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This confl ict for power between the two factions has led to the on-going Yemeni civil war.

Houthi RebelsThe Houthi movement is an Islamic, political and armed movement that emerged in 1990s from the Sa'dah region in northern Yemen. The movement acquired its name because its founder is from the Houthi tribe. They are of Zaidi sect, which is a sub-sect under the Shia sect of Islam.

Iraqi civil war: In 2014 the Iraqi insurgency escalated into a civil war. The insurgency was a direct continuation of events following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. At the time of insurgency, Iraq was led by a Shia-led government which was constantly under attack by Sunni militant groups who targeted Iraq’s majority Shia population to undermine confi dence in the Shia-led government.

Rise of ISIS: In 2014, the insurgency escalated dramatically following the conquest of Mosul and major areas in northern Iraq by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a Salafi jihadist militant group and an unrecognised proto-state that follows a fundamentalist, Wahhabi doctrine of Sunni Islam.Extension of confl ict: After this, in 2014, the confl ict merged with the Syrian Civil War, and became a far deadlier confl ict. At its height, ISIS held large parts of Iraqi territory. This resulted in forced resignation of the then Iraqi Prime Minister. Yazidi genocide by ISIS: ISIS is also the perpetrator ofgenocide of Yazidis in Iraq. This genocide led to expulsion, fl ight and effective exile of Yazidis from their ancestral lands in Northern Iraq whose women and girls were forced into sexual slavery by ISIS and whose men were killed by thousands. They were also subjected to forced conversions.Controlling ISIS: Finally, United States, along with Canada, Iran, Russia and many other countries launched massive air and ground combat operations to control ISIS. Iraqi Security Forces was provided military and logistical support for this purpose. The civil war ended when victory over ISIS was fi nally announced in 2017.Insurgency starting 2017: After ISIS lost territorial control in the Iraqi civil war began another round of Iraqi insurgency starting late 2017. Several revel groups, including ISIS and White Flags have since then been fi ghting the Iraqi military (backed by US).(Note: A combined force of troops from US, UK, Australia and Poland invaded Iraq in 2003 with an aim to end Saddam Hussein’s support for terrorism, whom they claimed, had armed Iraq with chemical weapons of mass destruction.)

YazidisYazidis are an endogamous, mostly Kurmanji-speaking group of predominantly Kurdish ethnicity, indigenous to Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. Yazidi practices have roots tracing back to the ancient Mesopotamian religions, but it has mixed elements of Christianity (baptism), Islam (circumcision) and Zoroastrianism (reverence of fi re as a manifestation from God). Yazidis have been denounced as infi dels by fundamentalists like Al-Qaida and ISIS. Despite many years of oppression and attempts to exterminate them, Yazidis have kept alive their syncretic religion for centuries.

Syrian civil war: The unrest in Syria started as part of a wider wave of the Arab Spring. It began in 2011 out of discontent with the Syrian Ba’athist government with protests demanding President Bashar al Assad’s removal; protesters were violently suppressed.

The on-going confl ict in Syria is the second deadliest of the 21st century and widely described as a series of overlapping proxy wars between the regional and world powers, primarily between US and Russia, as well as between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The war is fought between several factions.

Proxy wars between regional heavyweightsSaudi Arabia – Iran: Saudi Arabia is the major Sunni power in the region, Iran is the major Shia power, and both represent a fairly extreme version of their respective sects. While Saudi Arabia is theultra-conservative Wahhabi monarchy, Iran is a theocratic near-autocracy.Even though they don’t engage in direct confl ict, they fi ght elsewhere, through supporting opposing sides in nearby confl icts, including the civil wars in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq.

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Battle for energy resources exacerbates the situation—Saudi Arabia has the largest oil reserves of any nation, and advocates for moderate prices, while Iran’s economic situation dictates that they pursue higher prices worldwide for more immediate gain.No diplomatic ties: Iranian revolution of 1979 had threatened Saudi’s infl uence over the region and it later supported Iraq’s invasion of Iran. A 2016 attack on Saudi embassy in Teheran closed all diplomatic ties. United States factor: United States has always been Saudi Arabia’s secure ally, where it also has several military bases. United States’ concern with Iran is its ability to produce nuclear weapons. But after America’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy, its lessening reliance on Saudi oil, and potential rapprochement with Iran, Saudi foreign policy had become more assertive.Isolating Iran : In 2015, Saudi Arabia formed the intergovernmental Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT) with the stated goal of combating terrorism. But this coalition excluded Shia-led Iran, Iraq, and Syria; mostly seen as Saudi effort to isolate Iran.Isolating nations engaging with Iran: In 2017, Saudi Arabia imposed a blockade on Qatar, principally to punish it for its cordial relationship with Iran.Houthi rebels: Saudi Arabia, US, and Hadi’s Yemeni government have repeatedly accused Iran of supporting Yemen’s Houthi rebels with money and arms.Iran’s Shia crescent: Iran has tried to take advantage of regional instability by expanding its presence in the Shia crescent and creating a land corridor of infl uence stretching from Iraq to Lebanon, done in part by supporting Shia militias in the war against ISIS.

Saudi Arabia – Turkey: Turkey and Saudi Arabia always shared an uneasy relationship. Saudi is wary of was Turkey’s constitutionalism and moderate Islam as it directly challenges Saudis’ absolutist Islamism. After recent rise of Saudi’s Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman and adoption of aggressive foreign policies fl aunting Saudi power, Turkish anxiety is that Saudis intend to dominate the Arab world to the exclusion not only of Iran but of Turkey as well.

Turkey has long conceived itself not just a bridge between Asia and Europe but also a central player in regional and global affairs.Turkey support for Arab Spring : During the 2011 Arab Spring, Turkey enthusiastically welcomed the overthrow of authoritarian governments, while Saudi regime, feeling vulnerable itself, strongly opposed it.Opposing stand in Egypt: During the Egyptian crisis, Turkey has supported President Morsi who belonged to the Muslim Brotherhood and represented a constitutionalist Islamist model like Turkey. Saudis however, embraced General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and granted him aid. United States factor: United States’ increasing Saudi importance, and its growing differences with Turkey in the approach towards Syrian Kurds, also sent a signal that Saudi Arabia is the kingpin of America’s policy toward West Asia.Qatar factor: Qatar also has close relations with Turkey and hosts a Turkish military base. The Emir of Qatar had sent a contingent of soldiers to provide security to Mr.Erdoğan during his failed military coup in 2016. Saudi Arabia has not taken this relationshipwell.Jamal Khashoggi case: Saudi dissident, journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s, murder in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, exposed the brutal nature of Saudi regime. Turkey used the Khashoggi murder to sharpen the battle lines with Saudi Arabia.

The Israel FactorIsrael is a Jewish state, and a huge American ally, in the midst of a Muslim region. Israel’s relationship with any Arab country comes down to whether or not they support the Palestinian independence movements.Opposition: Currently, Israel is not even recognized as a country by, and has no offi cial diplomatic relations with, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the U.A.E.Support: Israel has its strongest regional alliance with Egypt. It has a peace treaty and a $500 million natural gas supply deal with Jordan. It trades with Qatar (even though Qatar has been accused of supporting Hamas). And it maintains a back-channel relationship with Saudi Arabia.Political enemies: Israel’s primary political enemies are groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.

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CONCLUSIONWest Asia politics and confl icts is a complicated and multifaceted affair. The dynamics of West Asia politics keep changing and must be viewed through an appropriate historical lens. It cannot be viewed independent of the international players in the region. Presently, the Syrian confl ict is the hotspot of West Asia politics. It can be best understood only after a thorough understanding of the many other facets of the region and its history.

Illegal Migration in India

Debates

A petition was fi led by two Rohingya men against the government’s proposed move to deport their 40,000-strong community back to their native land of Myanmar. In this backdrop, the Supreme Court is now examining, whether the illegal immigrants can even be considered for ‘refugee’ status or not.

BACKGROUNDIndia is often described as a land of migrants, which over centuries, has attracted streams of immigrants from different races and cultures and assimilated them to build a composite civilisation.India has been witnessing immigration since independence. People who have faced religious and political persecution, economic and social discrimination, cultural repression and curbs on personal freedom have made India their home.Many others have entered India to escape abject poverty and economic stagnation in their country, and to build a better future for themselves. Of all kinds of migration, illegal migration has become the most volatile and contentious issue in Indian polity today because of the socio-political confl icts it has brought in its wake. Illegal migration comprises of people across national borders in a way that violates the immigration laws of the destination country.Despite such unabated illegal migration from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and other bordering countries, there are no authentic offi cial statistics to ascertain the actual number of illegal migrants in India. Nonetheless, the Government of India has periodically provided statistics on the estimated number of illegal migrants in India. In 2004, the Union Minister of State for Home told Parliament that the country had 1.2 crore illegal immigrants. Currently, India is home to over two crore illegal migrants.

Understanding Refugee, Asylum – Seeker and Migrant

RefugeeRefugees are persons who are outside their country of origin for reasons of feared persecution, confl ict, generalized violence, or other circumstances that have seriously disturbed public order and, as a result, require international protection. The refugee defi nition can be found in the 1951 Convention and regional refugee instruments, as well as UNHCR’s Statute.

MigrantWhile there is no formal legal defi nition of an international migrant, most experts agree that an international migrant is someone who changes his or her country of usual residence, irrespective of the reason for migration or legal status. Generally, a distinction is made between short-term or temporary migration, covering movements with a duration between three and 12 months, and long-term or permanent migration, referring to a change of country of residence for a duration of one year or more.

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Asylum-seeker

An asylum-seeker is a person who has left their country and is seeking protection from persecution and serious human rights violations in another country, but who hasn’t yet been legally recognized as a refugee and is waiting to receive a decision on their asylum claim. Seeking asylum is a human right. This means everyone should be allowed to enter another country to seek asylum.

Pattern of Illegal Migration since Post-Independence

The independence of the country in 1947 was preceded by intense violence between the Hindus and the Muslims, and led to the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into two dominions–India and Pakistan– on religious grounds. Creation of India and Pakistan meant that the movement of people which was hitherto taking place between two provinces and was legal became movement between countries and was therefore illegal.

The riots of 1964 and the India–Pakistan War of 1965 yet again resulted in the out-migration of large numbers of Hindus from East Pakistan.

Then, the genocide perpetrated by the military junta in East Pakistan and the subsequent War of Liberation in 1971 triggered unrelenting migration into Assam, Tripura, West Bengal and other North Eastern Countries.

The Rohingya, Muslims from Rakhine province on Myanmar’s western coast, started arriving in sizeable numbers in India’s Northeast in late 2011 following stepped-up persecution by the Myanmar armed forces. As per Home Ministry data, there are more than 14,000 UNHCR-registered Rohingya in India. However, security agencies estimate the number of Rohingya living illegally in India at 40,000.

Reasons for Illegal Migration in India

Political Factors

Political factors have been one of the major reasons in forcing the Bangladeshi Hindus out of the country and into India. The riots of 1964 and the India–Pakistan War of 1965 yet again resulted in the out-migration of large numbers of Hindus from East Pakistan.

Another massive out-migration from East Pakistan was triggered in 1971 when the Pakistani military establishment tried to suppress Bengali nationalism through brutal military force.

Religious Discrimination

In Bangladesh, the already discriminatory land laws were further manipulated by vested interest groups and corrupt administrators to dispossess and alienate the Hindus from their own land and property.

Religion has a particular effect in the case of the Rohingya Crisis. The so-called War on Terror—waged primarily against Muslims around the world—has made it easier for Myanmar’s elites to label the Rohingya as terrorists.

The Rohingya Army’s attacks on government targets further validated many citizens’ belief that Islam is inherently violent and poses an existential threat to Buddhism, Myanmar’s majority religion.

Growing Population

Growing population creates greater demands on resources such as land, food, energy, water and forest products, and their consequent overuse results in deterioration of quality.

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This process, in turn, encourages inequality in resource distribution among the rich and poor as the rich corner them and deny the poor their share.

Stagnant Economic Growth and Lack of Employment Industrialisation in India’s neighbouring countries has not been able to keep pace with the growing labour force and as a result, the unemployment rate is declining.

The working-age people who are unable to fi nd jobs in the country look outside for employment opportunities.

Facilitating Factors Porous Borders : India shares long and porous international border with Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan. The border traverses a range of natural and cultural landscapes, which pose a challenge to its effective management.

Ethnicity : The ethnic composition of the people is similar on both sides of the borders and it is quite diffi cult to differentiate between the citizens of India and other countries.

Fertile Land : The fl at and fertile land along the border supports dense human settlements right up to the border. There are many villages located right along the borders.

Social network : The social networks established between the old immigrants and new immigrants over decades are extremely vital for the clandestine movement of people across the border.

Corruption by Security Personnel : The border-guarding personnel often collude with the smugglers and touts for economic benefi ts. The Army personnel have been notorious for demanding money from migrants to look the other way when these undocumented migrants cross the international border.

Political patronage : Political parties have always exploited the vulnerability of the illegal migrants for their own vested interests and benefi ts. The main reason that the political parties protect the illegal migrants is that they consider the illegal migrants as potential vote banks.

Legal Framework in IndiaArticle 51 states that the state shall endeavour to foster respect for international law and treaty obligations in the dealings of organized people with one another.

As the Citizenship Act 1955, an illegal immigrant can be:

Foreign national who enters India on valid travel documents and stays beyond their validity, or

Foreign national who enters without valid travel documents.

The Foreigners Act, 1946, gives the central government the right to deport a foreign national.

India is not a signatory to the 1951 United Nations Convention and 1967 Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees, and it does not currently have a national law on refugees.

While law and order is a State subject under the Indian Constitution, international relations and international borders are under the exclusive purview of the Union government. This has resulted in a variety of agencies, both of the Central as well as the State governments, having to deal with refugee matters connected with law enforcement.

In 2011, the Union government circulated to all states and Union Territories a Standard Operating Procedure to deal with foreign nationals who claimed to be refugees.

So, in a nutshell, India does not have on its statute book a specifi c and separate law to govern refugees.

Impact of Illegal Migration in IndiaSuch a huge infl ux of illegal migrants has had grave consequences on the socio-cultural, economic and political life of the receiving states.

Clashes due to Insecurity : Illegal migration has resulted in periodic clashes between the citizens of India and migrants, leading to their loss of life and property, and thereby violating their constitutional rights.

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Political Instability : Confl ict over scarce resources, economic opportunities and cultural dominance ensues between the locals and migrants, along with the resultant political instability caused by the mobilisation of popular perception against the migrants by the elites to grab political power.Disturbance in Law and Order : The rule of law and integrity of the country are undermined by the illegal migrants who are engaged in illegal and anti-national activities, such as entering the country clandestinely, fraudulently acquiring identity cards, exercising voting rights in India and resorting to trans-border smuggling and other crimes.Rise of Militancy : The persistent attacks against the Muslims perceived as illegal migrants in Assam has given way to radicalisation within certain sections of the Muslim community with the formation of militant organisations, such as the Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA).Human traffi cking : In the recent decades, traffi cking of women and human smuggling have become quite rampant across the borders. Poverty and hunger forces either the parents to sell the girls to traffi ckers or the girls themselves leave home and fall prey to traffi ckers.

Response by the GovernmentSince the threats and challenges to the stability and security of the country as a result of illegal migration were varied, the state response to them was also a mix of targeted interventions.

The Land Acquisition Acts : The Government reserved lands for the tribals by creating tribal belts and blocks through land revenue acts, but, initiative hardly addressed the problem of land alienation amongst the tribals as the lands earmarked for them were in remote and barren areas.NRC in Assam : A National Register of Citizens (NRC), containing information for each individual such as the father’s name or husband’s name, nationality, sex, age, means of livelihood, was prepared by the Assam government in 1951. The NRC was aimed to help identify and verify genuine Indian citizens and repatriate foreigners. Now, the Assam government has recently released the updated version of NRC.The Foreigner’s Tribunals of 1964 : These tribunals had the power to take up cases to decide whether a person is foreigner or not, as specifi ed in the Foreigners Act of 1946. Recently, the Assam government has decided to establish 200 Foreigners’ Tribunals (FTs) for handling cases of people to be excluded from the fi nal National Register of Citizens (NRC).Operation Push Back : It called for forcible deportation of illegal migrants in India. The fundamental objective of “Operation Push Back” was to deter any potential Bangladeshi migrant from illegally crossing the border and settling in India.Tighter Border Controls : Indian government implemented a series of schemes, such as augmenting the manpower of the border-guarding force, increasing the number of border outposts along the border, constructing fences and issuance of multiple identity cards to border population.The India–Bangladesh Border Fence : Fences or barriers are described as “fortifi ed boundaries” and are constructed for enhanced border controls. India is perhaps the fi rst country which has built a border fence to prevent illegal migration.Multipurpose Identity Card: In 2010, Aadhar Project was launched to provide a unique identity number to each resident of India and the Unique Identifi cation. Authority of India (UIDAI) was set up to implement the project, which has, till now has generated 19.67 crore Aadhar numbers.Amendment to Citizenship Act : The Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2016 aims to provide citizenship to those who had been forced to seek shelter in India because of religious persecution or fear of persecution in their home countries. They are primarily Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists, Parsis and Christians from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTSRIIN of Nagaland : Recently, the Nagaland Government is implementing a localised version of NRC, the Register of Indigenous Inhabitants of Nagaland (RIIN). The aim behind this move is to prevent outsiders from acquiring fake indigenous inhabitant certifi cates for seeking jobs and be benefi ciaries of government schemes.

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Demand by Karnataka : Recently, demands are being raised to extend the National Register of Citizens (NRC) to Karnataka because illegal immigrants from Bangladesh had become a security threat to Bangalore and the entire State.

Way ForwardEven though India is not a signatory to the 1951 Convention on refugees and also the 1967 Protocol, it is a signatory to a number of United Nations and World Conventions on Human Rights, refugee issues and related matters. Hence its obligations in regard to refugees arise out of the latter. India has also voted affi rmatively to adopt the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which affi rms rights for all persons, citizens and non- citizens alike.

In numbers and dimensions, the global refugee crisis and India’s refugee saga,

from 1947 to 2017

Debates

The fi rst Global Refugee Forum (GRF) was held in Geneva, Switzerland, jointly hosted by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the United Nations Refugee Agency, and the Government of Switzerland.

Background/Outcomes of the reportGlobally, more than two-thirds of all refugees come from fi ve countries: Syria (6.7 million), Afghanistan (2.7 million), South Sudan (2.3 million), Myanmar (1.1 million), and Somalia (0.9 million).

According to the UN, by the end of 2018, there were around 70.8 million people around the world who had left their home countries because of confl ict and persecution. Of these 70.8 million, roughly 30 million are refugees.

Countries in the developed regions host 16 per cent of refugees; one-third of the refugee population (6.7 million people) are in the Least Developed Countries.

The largest host countries are Turkey (3.7 million), Pakistan (1.4 million), Uganda (1.2 million), Sudan (1.1 million), and Germany (1.1 million).

According to the UN’s Global Trends report, there are 37,000 new displacements every day.

In 2018, 13.6 million people were newly displaced due to confl ict and or persecution.

Who is a refugee?The UN defi nes refugees as those individuals that have fl ed their own countries because of persecution, war or violence.

“A refugee has a well-founded fear of persecution for reasons of race, religion, nationality, political opinion or membership in a particular social group. Most likely, they cannot return home or are afraid to do so. War and ethnic, tribal and religious violence are leading causes of refugees fl eeing their countries”.

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Refugees are defi ned and protected in international law. The 1951 Refugee Convention is a key legal document and defi nes a refugee as: “someone who is unable or unwilling to return to their country of origin owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion.”

Who is an internally displaced person?An internally displaced person (IDP) is a person who has been forced to fl ee his or her home for the same reason as a refugee, but remains in his or her own country and has not crossed an international border. Unlike refugees, IDPs are not protected by international law or eligible to receive many types of aid.

Current refugee crises across the globeIn Burundi in East Africa, a humanitarian crisis is unfolding. Economic decline, outbreak of disease, and food insecurity have led to displacements within and outside the country to neighbouring countries including Rwanda, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania.

An estimated 5.6 million people from Syria have left the country since 2011, seeking refuge in neighbouring Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan among other countries.

Turkey hosts the largest number of Syrian refugees at roughly 3.3 million. According to UNHCR, the majority of the Syrians in neighbouring countries live in the urban areas, while roughly 8 per cent live in refugee camps.

Rohingya Muslims of Myanmar fl ed the country after violence broke out in the country’s Rakhine state. An estimated 6.7 lakh crossed over to neighbouring Bangladesh.

Other countries and regions facing a refugee situation include Europe, Yemen, Central America, Africa, South Sudan, Venezuela, DR Congo, and Nigeria.

Current Refugee situation in IndiaIndia does not have a separate statute for refugees, and until now has been dealing with refugees on a case- by-case basis.

India is not a signatory to the 1951 Convention on Refugees or the 1967 Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees.

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Union government circulated to all states and Union Territories a Standard Operating Procedure to deal with foreign nationals who claimed to be refugees.

Rohingya started to arrive in India’s northeast following stepped-up persecution by the Myanmarese armed forces.

Rohingya presence in the country has serious national security ramifi cations and it poses national security threats.

There is a serious possibility of eruption of violence against Buddhists who are Indian citizens and who stay on Indian soil by radicalised Rohingyas.

India’s refugee saga, from 1947 to 2017In the seven decades since it became an independent country, India has seen and largely welcomed waves of migrants fl eeing confl ict in neighbouring nations.

Indo-Pakistan partition period : It started with Partition itself, though people who crossed over the newly formed boundaries between India and Pakistan—by choice or forcibly—didn’t lose their nationalities; they were still forced to live the lives of a refugee. Refugee camps across north India served as homes for those who had borne the brunt of Partition.

Tibetan refugee : The next major movement of refugees towards India happened almost a decade after Partition, in 1959, when the Dalai Lama, along with more than 100,000 followers, fl ed Tibet and came to India seeking political asylum. Granting asylum to them on humanitarian grounds proved costly to India, As a result, Sino-Indian relations took a major hit. Border issues between the two countries, and Chinese encroachment on Indian Territory, began to crop up with greater frequency.

The Bangladeshi refugee : The next major refugee crisis happened during Bangladesh’s war of independence in 1971, when millions of refugees migrated from the country to India, fl eeing the confl ict between the Pakistani army and Bangladeshi forces. This led to a sudden spike in population in states bordering Bangladesh. According to some estimates, more than 10 million Bangladeshi refugees escaped in 1971 and took shelter in India.

The Sri Lankan Tamil refugees : Another sizeable group of refugees in India comprises Sri Lankan Tamils who abandoned the island nation in the wake of active discriminatory policies by successive Sri Lankan governments, events like the Black July Riots of 1983, and the bloody Sri Lankan civil war. Mostly these refugees, who number over a million, settled in the state of Tamil Nadu.

The Afghan refugees : While not one of the larger refugee groups in the country, a number of Afghans also took shelter in India after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Small groups of Afghan refugees kept coming to India in subsequent years. These refugees are mostly concentrated in and around Delhi, and have largely established spaces for themselves.

The Rohingya refugees : 40,000 Rohingya Muslims escaped Myanmar to take shelter in India. However, India has categorized the Rohingya as illegal immigrants and a security threat, siding with the Burmese government. The Indian government has stated that the principle of non-refoulement, or of not forcing refugees to return to their country of origin, does not apply to India principally as it is not a signatory to the 1951 refugees convention.

The Chakma and Hejong refugees : Many from the Chakma and Hajong communities—who once lived in the Chittagong hill tracts, most of which are located in Bangladesh—have been living as refugees in India for more than fi ve decades, mostly in the North-East and West Bengal. According to the 2011 census, 47,471 Chakmas live in Arunachal Pradesh alone.

New York Declaration for Refugees and MigrantsAdopted at UNGA The declaration expresses the political will of world leaders to protect the rights of refugees and migrants to save lives and share responsibility for large movements on a global scale.

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Some Consequences The refugees also have an impact on the economy and society of their host nations. Large number of refugees can have a devastation impact on the host nation. Large number of refugees actually loses their lives while trying to reach different countries which might take them.They could be used by terrorist organisations, sex or slave trade etc., thus denial of basic human rights, disruption of global peace.It is often seen that immigrants are exploited for their cheap labour. Immigration sometimes also becomes social or political issue; racism is used to exploit feelings or as an excuse for current woes of the local population.

Multi-Track Diplomacy

Debates

The UAE is fast becoming an exceptional case study in international relations and diplomacy, showcasing how a ‘small’ country can punch above its weight by shaping a dynamic foreign policy vision. In its back-drop, UAE is helping India and Pakistan in easing the tensions through the multi-track diplomacy mechanism.

BACKGROUNDMulti-track diplomacy is an abstract way to view the process of international peacemaking as a living system. In multi-track diplomacy, all sectors of society are important and need to be involved, supported, listened to, and trained in a shared language of dialogue, confl ict resolution, and peace building in order to prevent or end violent confl ict. It is an entanglement of interconnected activities, individuals, institutions, and communities that operate together for world at peace.Aim: To show that there are different types of actors that perform complementary roles in peacemaking.

ANALYSIS

Why Multi-Track Diplomacy is needed?In the last decade, the international community has been faced with more guerrilla warfare, attempts at secession and other types of intra-state violence. The traditional practices of diplomacy (formal meetings between offi cial representatives of states) are ill-equipped to deal with these challenges.The tension between India and Pakistan can be eased by employing multi-track diplomacy. Oslo agreement is the product of multi-track diplomacy.m

Structure of Multi-Track DiplomacyMulti-Track Diplomacy consists of nine complementary ‘tracks’. These are:

governments

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professional organisations the business community private citizens training, research and educational institutions activists church organisations funding media

Nine Tracks of Multi-Track Diplomacy

Track One: Government, Offi cial DiplomacyTrack One sets most of the agenda in the fi eld and has leadership and authority over the peacemaking systems at the offi cial level. Most political peace-building (the making of political agreements, decisions regarding use of force) is done by this track.An issue for this track is that it tends to be elitist and thus hard to reach. It often shuts itself out from expertise and alternative voices in the fi eld, such as NGOs, specialist groups, identity groups, formal and informal citizen groups. It is male dominated. Track One negotiators should be more prepared for dealing with this through multi-lateral negotiation skills training.Examples of Track One organisations: States, offi cial diplomats, the military, government-run development programs (Governmental Organisations), Inter-governmental organisations such as the UN, UNESCO, NATO, the EU, the OSCE, the WEU, The World Bank, The IMF, the FAO etc.

Track Two: Nongovernmental/Professional and Peacemaking through Confl ict Resolution.

This is the fi eld of professional non-governmental actors and organisations that try to manage, prevent and analyse confl ict. They come from vastly different backgrounds. Individuals and organisations in this track do mediation, consulting, problem-solving workshops, conferences etc.The single biggest challenge for this track is money. Funders are often looking for product, but confl ict resolution specialists are often focused on nurturing a process. Examples are: Search for Common Ground (Confl ict Resolution), The Institute for Multi-Track Diplomacy, Pax Christi, Life and Peace Institute.Other professional organisations without a clear confl ict resolution agenda are also included in this track like: Doctors Without Borders (MSF), the Red Cross, Oxfam, Novib and other Development Organisations.

9) Communication/Media 1) Government

8) Funding2) Non-government/Professional

7) Religion 3) Business

6) Activism 4) PrivateCitizn5) Research,

Training and Education

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Track Three: Business, or Peacemaking trough CommerceThis is the business world with its potential for peace-building through commerce. The traditional business community is profi t-oriented, competitive and conservative. But lately the business community has recognised that peacemaking activities can create more stable environments for business and safety for its employees.Issues for the business community often include environmental responsibility and social responsibility for the countries in which it operates: How to balance profi tability with responsibility.

Track Four: Private Citizens or Peacemaking through personal involvementThis includes all attempts by private citizens to do peace-building. This could be through citizen diplomacy (exchange programs), voluntary organisations and development programs, advocacy or special interests groups, professional interest groups and democracy-building organisations.This track often includes a wide range of NGOs, local and international. These individuals have a tremendous amount of knowledge of what happens on the ground, although they often have diffi culty fi nding connections with the rest of the peacebuilding system.

Track Five: Research, Training, and Education or Peacemaking trough LearningThis includes research,

academic departments, research institutes and think-tanks Training, transfer of practitioner skills such as: mediation, negotiation, confl ict resolution, third party facilitationEducation, from kindergarten to Ph.D. programs

One of the issues of this track is how to produce and transfer relevant information for practical use in confl icts.

Track Six: Activism, or Peacemaking through AdvocacyThis track involves environmental and peace activism from disarmament to human rights and socio-economic justice issues. People involved in this track often try to change attitudes, policies or institutions. Most of their work is stated in terms of opposition to certain situations.Often organisations in Track Six are one topic oriented, like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch in regards to Justice and Human Rights.An argument could be made for placing Amnesty International under track 2 as well. These organisations engage in a whole range of activities: education, advocacy, organising, supporting, witnessing and protesting. Issues for this track include small NGOs relative lack of power, their reputation as ‘peaceniks’ and way of often defi ning themselves as ‘anti’ this or that, as opposed to constructive involvement.

Track Seven: Religion, or Peacemaking through Faith in Action.This includes the efforts of religiously based communities and their efforts to make peace, from small church groups to larger religious communities of different denominations. In many places they are involved in reconciliation processes with a long-term commitment and thus are very well placed as contacts and confi dants of confl icting parties.

Track Eight: Funding or Peacemaking through Providing Resources.These are the organisations that provide the fi nancial support for many of the activities that take place on the other tracks, which is a persistent problem. Many funding organisations look for measurable results within a limited amount of time (typical funding cycles are 2-3 years), which can be too little time in many peace-building processes.

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Track Nine: Communication and the Media, or Peacemaking through InformationThis is the realm where public opinion formation takes place through TV, radio, printed media etc. This track informs the public and engages it in issues of confl ict and peace.One of the problems related to this fi eld is that the media has a preference for ‘bad news’ above ‘good news’. A successful attempt at preventing an outbreak of confl ict, for example the preventive diplomacy between India and Pakistan over Kashmir issue is often not considered ‘news’ and thus receive criticism in India.

Case-Study – Multi-Track DiplomacyAn example of Multi-Track Peacebuilding is the secret Oslo negotiations between the PLO (Track One) and the Israeli Government (Track One). In the start-up of this process there was co-operation between private citizens (Track Four), Ron Pundik and YaerHirshfeld, with FAFO (Norwegian Institute for Applied Social Science) (Track Five). They in turn had close contact with the Norwegian Foreign Ministry who were in contact with the State Department of the USA (both Track One). Because the contacts were facilitated by FAFO, the parties could deny having offi cial contacts and make progress in a way that was not deemed possible with offi cial (only track one) diplomacy.The short lines of communication between the Norwegian Foreign Ministry and the different NGOs have made Norwegian involvement in peace-building efforts remarkably successful. It is a very good example of multi-track diplomacy.Of course, depending on the circumstances of a particular confl ict, different tracks can be involved in peace-building effort. In some confl icts, it can be people from churches (track 7) that act as intermediaries between the confl ict parties, if other third parties do not have a chance of playing this role.

CONCLUSIONMulti-track Diplomacy uses a holistic and participatory approach to assess the key variables in deep-rooted confl icts and post-confl ict settings. It is focused on identifying and understanding the causes of confl ict within a nation. It promotes the breaking down of stereotypes and other barriers to peace by providing confl icting groups with the following skills:

Transforming the view/perception of the adversary Developing mutual understanding between confl icting parties Building trust between adversaries Reconciling past grievances Negotiation Creating cultural awareness

RCEP: India refused to bite the bullet

Debates

Recently, India refused to join RCEP in ASEAN summit in Bangkok.

BACKGROUNDThe Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between the ten member states of ASEAN (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) and its fi ve (formerly six) FTA partners (China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand).

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In November 2019, India, the sixth FTA partner, decided to opt out of the pact. In light of India’s departure, China announced that India is welcome to join the RCEP whenever it’s ready.

RCEP negotiations were formally launched in November 2012 at the ASEAN Summit in Cambodia. In 2017, the 16 prospective signatories accounted for a population of 3.4 billion people with a total Gross Domestic Product (GDP, PPP) of $49.5 trillion, approximately 39 percent of the world’s GDP.

ANALYSIS

Why did India opt out of RCEP?

India chose to opt out of RCEP because of following reasons:

Economic Slowdown The Indian economy is passing through a rough patch as the rate of GDP growth has been slowing down for fi ve consecutive quarters, that is, since January-March 2018.

Combined with the aftereffects of the demonetization move in November 2016, the GST rollout proved to be a double-disrupter of the economy, which is yet to fully come to terms with these two key decisions.

As the industry is reeling under pressure and the government is grappling to deal with the domestic economic situation, a massive free trade pact like RCEP would have exposed the Indian businesses and agriculture to unequal competition from countries which are lurking like giant sharks in the export arena.

Trade Defi cit India, as a whole, is a ‘bad’ business entity. It has massive trade defi cits with almost all economic powerhouses of the world. Of the 15 RCEP countries, India has serious trade defi cits with at least 11.

India’s trade defi cit with these countries has almost doubled in the last fi ve-six years - from $54 billion in 2013-14 to $105 billion in 2018-19. Given the export-import equation with the bloc, a free trade agreement with the grouping would have increased it further.

At present, India ships 20 per cent of all its exports to the RCEP countries and receives 35 per cent of all imports from them. China is the ringmaster of this export-import circuit. It is the largest exporter to almost all countries of the group, including India. Of India’s $105 billion trade defi cit with RCEP countries, China accounts for $53 billion.

The widening trade defi cit would empty foreign exchange reserve of India at a faster rate. And, a depleting foreign reserve is never good for any economy and is least desirable for one trying to recover from an already disrupted situation.

Industries and Farmers RCEP was one of those pacts that was opposed by both the industry and farmers alike. Manufacturing sector in India is in crisis. The sector has seen contraction in recent months. Manufacturing output grew at its slowest pace since last two years.

Services sector is also not doing well, of late. China and ASEAN countries have robust service sector, and a free entry to these players may damage the lone saviour of Indian economy in these times of crisis.

In agriculture, domestic players dealing in dairy products, spices -- chiefl y pepper and cardamom, rubber, and coconut would face dumping from the South Asian spice majors. Sri Lanka is already giving a tough time to Indian spice growers.

Vietnam and Indonesia have very cheap rubber to export. Australia and New Zealand are waiting for a free access to India for their dairy products. Indian businesses would be hit hard as RCEP does not offer enough protection to them.

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FTAs have not benefi tted India The NITI Aayog, in 2017, in its report pointed out that free trade agreements have not worked well for India. It analysed multiple free trade agreements that India signed in the past decade. Among those were FTA with Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea.The NITI Aayog analysis showed that import from FTA countries increased while export to these destinations did not match up. Even India’s export to FTA countries did not outperform its overall export growth. The NITI Aayog found that FTA utilisation by India has been abysmally low between 5 and 25 per cent.

China’s Gameplan Finally, RCEP has come up as a Chinese gameplan to save its manufacturing industries from crumbling under their own weight and the ongoing trade war with USA. Several industrial players in India red-fl agged the Chinese agenda of fl ooding the Indian market using the RCEP countries as a connecting network.

Not Joining RCEP will also hurt Indian EconomyWhile the fears of cheap import surges hurting our dairy and agriculture sectors have been abated for the time being, the decision does nothing to enhance the competitiveness of our domestic industries or to make them ready for global competition. The decision to not join RCEP also does nothing to bolster our ‘Act East’ and ‘Act Far East’ policies. Instead, our status quoist approach has provided a fi llip to a growing rhetoric of protectionism.

China has already covered most markets united under RCEP umbrella. The above mentioned NITI Aayog report pointed out that China has changed the trade equation with the ASEAN countries after inking ACFTA - standing for ASEAN-China free trade agreement - in 2010.ASEAN-6 (Indonesia, Malaysia,Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) had a trade surplus of $53 billion in 2010 which turned into a trade defi cit of $54 billion in 2016.India, with its 1.3 billion population, offers the biggest free access market to the Chinese companies that are feeling the pinch of US-China trade war with Donald Trump administration taking on the manufacturing giant in the past one-and-a-half years.China needs greater access to Indian market to sustain its manufacturing industries. A failure to fi nd a market will have cascading effect on Chinese economy and President Xi Jinping’s global ambitions. In Bangkog, PM Modi just refused to be a willing dumping ground of China’s trade imperialism.India wanted a key clause to be included in the RCEP pact for auto-trigger mechanism as a shield against sudden and signifi cant import surge from countries (read China). The RCEP covers trade in goods and services, and also investments, economic-technical cooperation, competition and intellectual property rights.

Benefi ts for India of Joining RCEPIt can boost India’s inward and outward foreign direct investment, particularly export-oriented FDI. It would also facilitate India’s MSMEs to effectively integrate into the regional value and supply chains. It presents a decisive platform for India which could enhance strategic and economic status in the Asia-Pacifi c region and can complement its Act East Policy.It can augment India’s existing free trade agreements with the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN).

It can address challenges emanating from implementation concerns vis-à-vis overlapping agreements of ASEAN.The RCEP would help India streamline the rules and regulations of doing trade, which will reduce trade costs.India enjoys a comparative advantage in the services sector such as information and communication technology, healthcare, and education services etc. Thus, RCEP will create opportunities for Indian companies to access new markets.

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Way ForwardAn opportunity to negotiate a better deal still exists, as India has a year to negotiate and be part of RCEP. The assumption that the world will bend to our demands given the size of our market doesn’t hold good any more. We need to put our house in order to take on global competition and benefi t from export opportunities that external markets offer, and such multilateral agreements create.

Counter-terrorism Infrastructure in India

Debates

On February 13, Suicide bomber targets security convoy in Kabul. At least 12 killed, six wounded in a Taliban ambush that hit a convoy of security personnel in Kabul.

On February 14, 40 CRPF personnel were killed in Pulwama in Jammu and Kashmir when a convoy in which they were travelling was attacked by a Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) suicide bomber, who rammed his explosives-laden vehicle into one of the convoy’s buses on the Srinagar-Jammu highway.

On March 15, as many as 49 people were killed and many injured in shooting in two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand. Gunmen live-streamed the shooting in social media.

ANALYSISTerrorism in India: Terrorism in India can be classifi ed into 4 categories:Jammu and Kashmir militancy: After losing the initial battle in 1947 and later the wars of 1965 and 1971, Pakistan resorted to the tactics of low intensity warfare as it realised that it could not win over India in a full scale direct war. It is actively supporting separatists and militant insurgency in Kashmir Valley since late eighties.Insurgency in North-East: There are more than 100 tribal groups in the entire north-east region. The policies of Britishers resulted in their isolation from the rest of India. Currently there are a number of militant outfi ts having diverse demands- checking illegal immigration from Bangladesh, separate statehood, secession.Left Wing extremism (Naxalism): Originated from Naxalbari village in Darjeeling district of West Bengal. It has spread to Bihar, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. It aims to capture political power through armed struggle to install the so called people’s government.Hinterland terrorism: The terrorist activities that have been taking place all across India. Examples: Militancy in Punjab in eighties, 1993 Bombay serial blasts, Parliament attack (New Delhi) in 2001, Akshardham Temple (Gujarat) attack in 2002, Mumbai Attacks in 2008, Pathankot attack (Punjab) in 2016.

Reasons for spread of terrorism: Indoctrination: The religious belief has become a key means of indoctrinating and training would-be terrorists. Extremists use websites and social media to recruit and radicalise individuals through videos and propaganda. Suicide terrorism, self-sacrifi ce, or martyrdom has been organized and perpetrated by groups with religious motivations.

Technology: Sophisticated means of communication- electronic media, print media, social media, and internet helps in faster promotion of terrorist ideology and hate campaign across international borders. Websites and social media messages are used to provide advice and instructions on how to plan and prepare for attacks, acting as a “virtual training camp” or ideas forum. Other technologies available to conduct acts of terror are mobile phones, satellite phones and GPS systems.

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Feeling of alienation and deprivation among the local people, violation of human rights, abuse of dignity of life, disconnect with mainstream communities, discontent against government.Porosity of border with neighbouring countries- Bangladesh, Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal. Some of it is due to diffi cult terrain and some are due to bilateral arrangements between the governments.Evasion of land ceiling laws, non-regularization of traditional land rights, land acquisition without appropriate compensation and rehabilitation, disruption of age old tribal-forest relationship.Links between terrorism and organised crime to earn easy money. Easy availability of arms and ammunition.Developmental defi cit: Unemployed and poor youths with high aspiration become the victim of trap set by the terrorist groups who lure them with short term gains of money, food, clothes, shelter and in return ask them to execute terrorist acts like- suicide car bombing.

Institutional framework to tackle terrorism: National Investigation Agency (NIA) is a central agency established by Government to combat terror in India. It acts as the Central Counter Terrorism Law Enforcement Agency. The agency is empowered to deal with terror related crimes across states without special permission from the states. It came into existence with the enactment of the National Investigation Agency Act 2008 by the Parliament of India on 31 December 2008. NIA was created after the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks as need for a central agency to combat terrorism was realised.NATGRID (National Intelligence Grid) is an intelligence sharing network that collates data from the standalone databases of the various agencies and ministries of the government. It is a counter terrorism measure that collects and collates a host of information from government databases including tax and bank account details, credit card transactions, visa and immigration records and itineraries of rail and air travel.National Security Guard (NSG) is a Special Forces unit under the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA). It was raised in 1984, following Operation Blue Star and the assassination of Indira Gandhi for combating terrorist activities with a view to protect states against internal disturbances.Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) is a special police force raised to combat terror. It is set up in several states - Maharashtra, Gujarat, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Bihar.

Legal framework to tackle terrorism: Terrorist and Disruptive Activities (Prevention) Act : Commonly known as TADA, was anti-terrorism law which was in force between 1985 and 1995 under the background of the Punjab insurgency and was applied to whole of India. It came into effect on 23 May 1985. It was renewed in 1989, 1991 and 1993 before being allowed to lapse in 1995 due to increasing unpopularity after widespread allegations of abuse.Prevention of Terrorism Act, 2002 (POTA) : It was an Act passed by the Parliament in 2002, with the objective of strengthening anti-terrorism operations. The Act was enacted due to several terrorist attacks that were being carried out in India and especially in response to the attack on the Parliament. The Act replaced the Prevention of Terrorism Ordinance (POTO) of 2001 and the Terrorist and Disruptive Activities (Prevention) Act. The Act was repealed in 2004 by government.At present, the legislations in force to check terrorism in India are the National Security Act, 1980 and the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, 1967.National Security Act, 1980 : The National Security Act is a stringent law that allows preventive detention for months, if authorities are satisfi ed that a person is a threat to national security or law and order.The grounds for preventive detention of a person include:

Acting in any manner prejudicial to the defence of India, the relations of India with foreign powers, or the security of India.Regulating the continued presence of any foreigner in India or with a view to making arrangements for his expulsion from India.Preventing them from acting in any manner prejudicial to the security of the State or from acting in any manner prejudicial to the maintenance of public order or from acting in any manner prejudicial to the maintenance of supplies and services essential to the community it is necessary so to do.

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Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, 1967 : Aimed at effective prevention of unlawful activities associations in India. Its main objective is to make powers available for dealing with activities directed against the integrity and sovereignty of India.

Way forward:A comprehensive approach is needed to tackle the terrorism. It requires effort from all stakeholders- government, security agencies, civil society and media.

Political: National interest should be supreme. It should be up and above the vote bank politics. All political parties should come forward together to take a call to combat terrorism in all its forms.Legal: we need to have very stringent laws against terrorism and fast track courts which can deliver judgement within 3-4 months.Police: Strengthening the state police by enhancing their training capabilities and providing them with modern equipment for surveillance, investigation and operation.Media: the media often indulges in needless debates on such issues which are of importance from point of view of national security. In a democracy, debate is always welcome but on some issues, the media should take a more dispassionate view.Public: the general public needs to be educated about the evil designs of our neighbouring countries. Both the majority and minority communities should promote interreligious harmony and work together for peace.

An Appraisal of the Red Corridor

Debates

Special Secretary at the Chief Minister’s Offi ce Ramakant Singh has instructed to pay scholarship in a week under the skill development scheme in the Left Wing Extremism affected districts to the ITI-trained students.

BACKGROUNDLeft Wing Extremism (LWE) is recognised as one of the most serious threats, not only to India’s internal security but indeed to the very basic values of the democratic, pluralistic political order enshrined in our ConstitutionSince 1967, when the movement started in a few ‘Parganas’ in West Bengal, it has gradually spread its tentacles into nearly 90 districts in nine states.Over the past 51 years, the armed activists of the movement have accounted for widespread death and destruction.Later, over the decades that followed, the movement assumed alarming proportions, Threatening peace and security over a vast stretch of land spread across 10 states, described as ‘Red Corridor’.

ANALYSIS

The Naxalite movement prominently focuses on major issues like: Reallocation of land resources;

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Ensuring minimum wages for the labour working in the farms; Running a parallel government and impose tax and penalties; Run parallel Kangaroo Courts; Destruction of government property and abduct its offi cials; Attacks on police and law enforcing machinery; Enforce its own social code of conduct

Current Status Over the years, at the peak of the LWE movement, nearly 40 per cent of India’s land mass, covering approximately 35 per cent of its population, was affected.According to a recent security review by the Ministry of Home Affairs, (MHA), violence in LWE affected region is now spans 90 districts across 10 states.In 2017, a total of 263 fatal casualties were recorded and 1888 CPI-Maoists cadres were arrested, which is the highest till now.The state-wide classifi cation of the most affected districts is as below.

LWE Most Affectd Districts

1 Andhra Preadesh (1) Vishakhapatnam

2 Bihar (4) Aurangabad, Gaya, Jammui Lakhisarai

3 Chhattisgarh (8) Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur, Rajnandangao, Sukma

4 Jharkhand (13) Bokar, Chakra, Garhwa, Giridih, Gumla, Harzaribagh, Khunti, Latehar, Lohardaga, Palamu, Ranchi, Simdega, West Singhbhum.

5 Maharashtra (1) Gadchiroli

6 Odisha (2) Karaput, Malkangiri

7 Telangana (1) Bhdradri-Kothagudem

Mobilisation of LWE Supporters in Urban AreasConcurrently, even when the LWE movement is under intense pressure, because of a combination of proactive security and effective development measures, a steady rise in pro-Naxal activities in urban India is being observed.The recent trend of strong coordination between parent organisations like the CPI-Maoists and other like- minded organisations is being refl ected in the various programmes carried out by these organisations, against the alleged state violence and for protection of democratic rights like displacement of local communities.It remained the main rationale for mobilisation for civil society organisations like the NiyamgiriSurakshaSamitee, actively agitating in the Niyamgiri Hills area and the Jharkhand VisthapanVirodhi Jan VikasAndolan, a front of CPI-M agitating against amendments to the Chhotanagpur and SanthalPargana Tenancy Acts. In this backdrop, a systematic approach was initiated by the CPI-M to mobilise resources and achieve the following objectives through urban mobilisation, taking advantage of their anonymity in the urban centres.

Mobilise masses and strengthen organisational structures – Under this programme, the Maoists mainly targeted students, workers, middle-class employees, and focused on social issues like women’s rights, the grievances of Dalits, and religious minorities and politicised issues in accordance with the communist ideology.Develop a United Front – Another component of the above strategy was to unify like-minded organisations of workers, students from urban localities, organisations opposing globalisation, etc and to consolidate them.

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Military Task – The military wings of CPI-M, PGI and PLGA, were to carry out the military tasks in the rural and least developed regions of the country while the urban Naxals were to complement their efforts by recruiting cadres and sending them into the countryside, infi ltrating ‘enemy’ ranks, creating unions in crucial industries, sabotaging actions with the support of armed cadres, arranging fi nancial and logistical support for armed cadres hiding in the remote localities.

Government of India’s Approach

Review Mechanism: For effective implementation of the NPAP, the MHA established a robust mechanism under which timely reviews are conducted and policies and strategies are amended or fi ne-tuned.

SAMADHAN-A Comprehensive Policy Tool: an integrated strategy through which LWE can be countered with full force and competence. This is a compilation of short term and long-term policies formulated at different levels.

Tracking Flow of Weapons: Real-time technical intelligence plays a decisive role in any proactive counter-insurgency force and its timely receipt defi nes the strength of that force. In developing these capabilities, the MHA has deployed at least one Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) or Mini-UAV for each CAPF battalions. More helicopter support is provided for CAPFs to rush in supplies and reinforcements.

Tracking Finances: Apart from robust kinetic measures, a pre-emptive approach warrants limiting the resources of LWE movement and its cadres through effective coordination and thorough investigation.

Multi-agency Approach: the Ministry of Home Affairs has set up a Multi-Disciplinary Group (MDG) comprising offi cers from the Intelligence Bureau (IB), Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), Enforcement Directorate, Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI), NIA, Central Board of Direct Taxation (CBDT), CRPF and the state police as well as their Special Branches, Criminal Investigation Departments (CIDs) and other state units. This group is utilised by the MHA as a forum for evolving a well-coordinated approach for handling prolonged national security challenges.

Bastariya Battalion: the CRPF has decided to enhance local representation in its combat layout deployed in the Bastar area to provide the ‘Bastariya’ youth better avenues of employment under its Civic Action Programme.

Development Initiatives by Government of India

Road Connectivity Schemes: The Road Requirement Plan is being implemented by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways with the objective of better connectivity in 34 LWE affected districts of nine states.

Data Connectivity: The Department of Telecom is proactively implementing schemes for better data connectivity of LWE affected states with the rest of the country. These efforts are yielding constructive results, helping the security forces with better data connectivity for executing counter-insurgency operations successfully.

Electrifi cation Initiatives in LWE Districts: The Ministry of Power has proactively started the electrifi cation of the villages in the LWE affected districts under DeenDayalUpadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana (DDUGJY).

Employment Initiatives: Along with several infrastructural schemes, the Government of India is also executing several schemes under the PradhanMantriKaushalVikasYojna (PMKVY) that are empowering the citizens with the required skill sets to earn their livelihood. Under this programme 47 Industrial Training Institutes (ITIs) and 68 Skill Development Centres (SDCs) are to be established.

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Cycles of development and Extremism

WAY FORWARDEnsuring effective governance for the well-being of the affected sections of the population. Transforming the state police into an effective counterinsurgency force. Timely execution and completion of development schemes. Further, the states can also improve governance by playing a constructive role in: Suggesting specifi c, actionable interventions in existing schemes which are being run by the Central Government in the state.Encouraging civil society and youth to act in a constructive way rather than resorting to mere right based agitations.Unleashing the competitive spirit among all stakeholders. Timely sharing of information on district-specifi c issues.

India’s National Security – Challenges and Priorities

Debates

India continues to face many complex threats and challenges to its national security, a few of which are predictable and well-defi ned.

BACKGROUNDOver the years, we have entered into an era of complex and uncertain threats and challenges, due to dynamic changes in the geo-politico-economic landscape and revolutionary changes in technology.

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These threats include traditional, non-traditional, cyber, information, space, chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and propaganda.In order to ascertain the preparedness of our defence forces, it would be prudent to analyse it both from threat and capability-centric points of view.

ANALYSIS

Security threats and challenges: Dichotomy of thought: The thought process of uniformed personnel and civilian research scholars towards national security challenges is completely different.

Uniformed personnel: They perceive national security challenges as well-defi ned external or internal threats or the challenges of hybrid warfare in the future and mostly ignore non-traditional threats.Civilian Research scholars: They have thought-provoking perceptions towards security challenges like:

Lack of education among masses leading to the election of non-suitable leaders having no vision on national security;The triangle formed by the huge youth population, unemployment among the youth and threat to food security is a deadly recipe detrimental to national security;Lack of social cohesion and harmony, dilution in the integrity of institutions, the polarisation of people along the lines of religion, caste and region, and non-inclusive growth pose a potent threat and challenge to national security.

External Threats and Challenges: Two neighbours of India— China and Pakistan—are not just the principal source of its external security threats, but are also nuclear-armed states who share a deep friendship.The territorial disputes and external threats on our sub-continent are a result of its unique geostrategic location, its neighbourhood, its history and the Partition.Security of India’s long and porous coastline, offshore islands, exclusive economic Zone and sea lines of communications in the Indian Ocean require a high level of surveillance, situational awareness, rapid response capability, and synergy between all enforcement agencies to provide effective maritime security.Detailed examination of the economic and security implications of CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor), Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the 21st-century Maritime silk road on India and the region is required.

Internal Threats and Challenges: Huge diversity in geographical regions, ethnicity, religions, and languages coupled with social discrimination, inequality in human development indices (HDI), lack of inclusive growth, the polarisation of population-based on religion and caste, and mass unemployment among the youth makes India vulnerable to internal armed confl icts.The aim of the armed confl icts like Naga insurgency, Bodoland army, , in India is primarily to capture political power or seek separation or secession or greater autonomy. We have been more successful in confl ict-management and not confl ict-resolution.Internal security is a function of political morality, responsiveness of the governance system, integrity of institutions, social cohesion, the status of the economy, wealth distribution in the population, and social justice. India is suffering from dysfunctional institutions, which further add to the problems in the internal security environment.Pakistan has continued to indulge in proxy-war-cum-cross-border-terrorism in J&K with a view to destabilising India, which poses a serious threat to India’s internal security.

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Dynamics of Limited Confl ict

Considering the geo-political-economic-strategic environment with nuclear-armed states, the probability of a total war appears less likely.

However, given our unresolved border disputes with our neighbours, history of our earlier confl icts, and the continued proxy war-cum-cross-border terrorism from Pakistan, the probability of limited confl icts or border skirmishes, with irregular, information and asymmetric threats would always remain high.

Such confl icts would have the potential to spill over to a larger area/region.

Economic Cost of Violence refers to the direct and indirect costs incurred in preventing, containing, and dealing with the consequences of violence. The economic cost of violence to India has been 9% of its GDP.

Way forwardBuild an effective military deterrence

India needs to progressively improve its military capabilities in conventional as well as non-conventional war-fi ghting mechanisms, soft power and demonstrated power.

Military deterrence needs to be backed by comprehensive national power: political will, strong economy, social cohesion, vibrant industrial base, supportive public information system, and strong technology and innovation culture.

Integration and Jointness

The future confl icts would be short, intense, multi-dimensional and hybrid in nature and straddle land, sea, air, space, and cyber and information domains.

Therefore, we will not have the luxury of delayed decision-making, delayed mobilisation and delayed application of forces.

Integrated organisations would certainly help us become effective operationally, with the ability to ensure synergistic application of all available resources for that operation in the very limited window of opportunity.

Defence Industry and Capability

There is a need to holistically and pragmatically review the existing system of defence production in India, with a greater focus to boost indigenous manufacturing to achieve self-reliance with quality products.

To produce state-of-the-art weapon systems in India, innovation has to be accorded with a very high priority and private sector participation needs to be enhanced, with substantial investment in R&D to revolutionise our industry.

Border Management Strategy

The aim of border management strategy should be to effectively maintain the territorial integrity of the borders and to take care of the multifaceted threats and challenges along each border.

Besides utilising technology to manage borders (smart management), there is a need to have clarity in responsibility, command and control, authority and accountability for each border, more importantly, the borders under dispute.

Cyber and Space Domains: While looking at the offensive aspects of cyber-warfare, it is important to fi rst take actions to protect our networks from cyber-attacks. The militarization of space is yet another dimension that needs to be explored for military purposes.

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CONCLUSIONIndia has to use all instruments of its national power—political, economic, diplomatic, military, social, technological, psychological, cultural—in a coordinated manner to address its security concerns. This can happen only if we put an end to turf wars between different elements of national power, and look at the national security with a national outlook.

The Crisis in Hong Kong: What to Know

Debates

Protests continue in Hong Kong which started against a controversial extradition bill that Hong Kongers fear will erode freedom in the semi-autonomous territory.

BACKGROUNDHong Kong was a British colony from 1841 when China ceded the island to the British after the First Opium War - which had erupted over British traders smuggling opium into China.Britain handed Hong Kong back to China in 1997 as a ‘special administrative region’ . The territory has been ruled under the ‘one country, two systems’ formula agreed by then U.K. and Chinese leaders. Hong Kong citizens have more autonomy and freedom than mainland Chinese, but the elective process is still partly controlled by China.At present, Hong Kong residents can only vote for pre-approved political candidates under Chinese law, making it impossible for a critic of Beijing to get on the ballot.

Immediate Cause Behind protests - The Extradition Bill proposed by Chief Executive The extradition bill introduced by chief executive Carrie Lam if enacted would allow local authorities to detain and extradite criminal fugitives who are wanted in territories with which Hong Kong does not have extradition agreements, including Taiwan and mainland China.Critics fear bill will compromise Hong Kong’s judicial system and prove the ‘death knell’ of ‘one country, two systems’.Other major belief among the Hong Kongers behind the protest is that since 1997 (since Hong Kong got the special autonomous status), China is consistently trying to erode the principle of one country, two systems.

ANALYSIS

Need for Extradition Law The Hong Kong administration fi rst proposed the changes in February citing the case of local man who was wanted for the suspected murder of his pregnant girlfriend while the two were on holiday in Taiwan.Offi cials said he could not be sent back to Taiwan for trial because there was no formal extradition agreement between the two territories.Hong Kong’s extradition arrangements are laid out in the Foreign Offenders Ordinance, which was negotiated in 1997 when the UK returned the territory to China.Taiwan, Macau and the mainland China were not included in that agreement in what the Hong Kong Bar Association says was a “deliberate decision” on the part of the legislature given the “fundamentally different criminal justice system operating in the mainland”.

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What are the Proposed Amendments?Hong Kong currently has bilateral extradition treaties with 20 countries including the UK, the US and Singapore but the amendments put forward by the administration are being framed as a way to enable the sending of suspected offenders to places with which the territory has no formal extradition agreement on a case-by-case or one-off basis.

Under the proposals, the chief executive, who is not elected but chosen by an election committee accountable to China, would have the authority to decide any request.

It is to be noted that Chief Executive of Hong Kong could be considered as an agent of Mainland China.

The 70-member assembly (elected) or Legco would have no role in the process.

What are people’s concerns?Rights and Freedoms of Citizens: Article 4 of the Basic Law, the mini-constitution which governs post-colonial Hong Kong, promises to “safeguard the rights and freedoms of the residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and of other persons in the Region in accordance with law”. The extradition bill is against Article 4 of the Basic law.

Judicial independence: People in Hong Kong have been particularly sensitive to issues involving judicial independence, which is seen as guaranteeing a measure of protection from the government. This bill not only ‘erodes’ those protections. It places protection of those rights within the hands of unelected bureaucrats who have so far manifested a rather poor record of being able or willing to resist pressure from Beijing. The deepening trade war between the US and China has also put the mainland’s judicial system which is said to have a near 100 percent conviction rate, under the spotlight.

Protection of ‘one country, two systems’: Hong Kong was returned to China under the concept of “one country, two systems”.

Demands of ProtestersChief Executive Carrie Lam fi rst suspended the bill but fi nally scrapped it in the wake of mass protests. Even after declaring the extradition bill dead the repeated street protests and mass demonstrations have confronted Hong Kong with a major political crisis. The protesters have presented fi ve demands before the chief executive:

Withdraw the extradition bill

Leader Carrie Lam to step down

Inquiry into police excesses

Release the arrested protestors

Greater democratic freedoms

Consequences

Economic Consequences Hong Kong as the fi nancial centre, a travel hub and a world city, foreign governments have a legitimate interest in seeing the city safe and its business environment robust.

While mainland China is Hong Kong’s most important trading partner and the economy is already showing signs of hurting as a result of the protests.

Companies have already reported serious consequences from the disruption including loss of revenue, disrupted supply chains and shelved investments.

Shutting down of Hong Kong’s International Airport led to the cancellation of more than 1000 fl ights creating a huge loss to the economy.

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Colour RevolutionColour revolutions are externally fuelled acts with a clear goal to infl uence the internal affairs that destabilise economy, confl ict with the law and represent a new form of warfare.Participants in the colour revolutions often use nonviolent resistance. Such methods as demonstrations, strikes and interventions have been intended protest against governments seen as corrupt and/or authoritarian and to advocate democracy and they have also created strong pressure for change. These movements generally adopted a specifi c colour or fl ower as their symbol. The colour revolutions are notable for the important role of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and particularly student activists in organising creative non-violent resistance.

Political Crisis

It is said that the protests have clear features of a color revolution and their goal is to paralyze the territory’s government, seize the power for governing the Special Administrative Region and make “one country, two systems” an empty concept.

International Reactions

Foreign nations and visiting heads of state have expressed concerns that they do not just see IT as an internal affair of Hong Kong and the mainland China but an international issue. US lawmakers reintroduced a bill in Congress to assess the autonomy of Hong Kong year to year. The crisis in Hong Kong has given ammunition to escalate US-China trade war.

China’s Stand

China has said it played no part in Hong Kong’s decision to amend its extradition law but it supports the initiative.

Initially, China overlooked the protests but when the protests intensifi ed it said that the protests are showing signs of ‘colour revolution’.

India’s Concerns

India is also a stakeholder in the issues because Hong Kong is home to India’s wealthy business community.

The Indian startups backed by global investment giants of the likes of Alibaba, SoftBank, Tencent and Sequoia Capital, such as Paytm, OYO and Ola, have started to expand their businesses in Hong Kong.

CONCLUSION

It is not the fi rst time that the Hong Kongers are on streets to protest against the attempts made by Mainland China to erode the special status. But this time, mass protests and demonstrations are unprecedented and continue even after the scrapping of the extradition bill against which the protests started. There is also a possibility of western vested interest behind the colour revolutions in Hong Kong.

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India-Israel relations and Middle East – Dynamism and Realism

Debates

A June 6, 2019 vote in the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) on a decision introduced by Israel that objected to granting a Palestinian NGO named Shahed (‘Witness’) a consultative status at the ECOSOC, attracted widespread attention.

India voted in favor of the decision proposed by Israel to deny the observer status to Shahed.

Many in the diplomatic circles considered this move unprecedented, “rare”, and that this vote could be the fi rst sign of a gradual dilution of India’s “decades-old position on the two-state theory”.

ABOUT: This vote should be interpreted as important signaling from the part of Indian diplomacy. India had abstained at ECOSOC vote in 2015 on authorizing the application of another Palestinian NGO for consultative status.

One needs to look at the broader historical and institutional context of this recent decision to assess its long-term signifi cance for India’s ties with Israel and Palestine.

Over the last fi ve years, India had already broken with its previous systematic voting stance on issues connected to Israel-Palestine by already abstaining on votes against Israel at the UNGA, UNHRC and at the UNESCO.

But the shift is not un-principled. The fact that, amid all the regional tensions, Indian migrants in the GCC countries alone generated remittances worth $40 billion in 2018 highlights the need for India to stabilize its interests in the region.

India supported a UNGA vote against Donald Trump’s unilateral declaration of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, judging that this decision went against international law and past UN Security Council resolutions.

BACKGROUND:

Two-state solution:The “two-state solution” would create an independent Israel and Palestine, and is the mainstream approach to resolving the confl ict.

The idea is that Israelis and Palestinians want to run their countries differently; Israelis want a Jewish state, and Palestinians want a Palestinian one.

The geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East have been changing in an unprecedented manner over the past few years.

The present article tries to examine India’s initiatives in the region in the context of the emerging regional geo-strategic landscape.

ANALYSISOne needs to understand India’s West Asia policy as a careful and constant balancing exercise rather than to discern possible tilts and realignments with specifi c countries or blocs in the region.

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Given the web of strategic linkages crisscrossing Eurasia, several regional and major powers have sought to increase their presence and infl uence in the region.Although their level of engagement has varied over the years yet their power rivalry and competition assume even greater signifi cance due to Russia’s ongoing confrontation with the ‘West’.As in the case of India’s careful balancing exercise in the dispute between the GCC and Iran, one should expect India to maintain a fl exible position and to refrain from rigid rhetorical and policy commitments.The situation in West Asia is currently in fl ux and that India has been one of the rare extra-regional actors to have cultivated substantial ties with most relevant actors in the region.West Asia has been a sensitive and confl ict prone region, especially since the early 20th century with the discovery of oil. It was also an enduring space for confl ict during the Cold War. More recently, the phenomenon of the “Arab Spring” added another dimension to the existing geopolitical challenges in the region.The relationship between the two crucial regional players—Saudi Arabia and Iran—has worsened, making the situation even more complex. There have been allegations of Saudi-Iran proxy wars taking place in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.The increasing Iranian activism in the region and its rising capability, along with rapprochement with the West, has alarmed the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states thus inhibiting the chances of any dialogue between the two sides. Intra GCC tensions have also surfaced in recent times.The escalation of confl ict in West Asia has created anxiety among major oil importers in Asia, particularly India, China, Japan and South Korea.These Asian economic giants are heavily dependent upon the energy supplies from the Gulf region. There has been a concern among the Asian oil importers over the possibility of disruption in production and supplies of oil and gas in the face of growing unrest in the region.

India’s interests are intertwined with the region: India has huge political, economic and security interests in the region. India’s bilateral trade with the region is around US$ 172 billion.Not only is it heavily dependent on the region for energy supplies, there are over seven million Indian nationals living and working in the region.Their safety is a concern for India. The rise of terrorism and extremism in the region, particularly the ISIS, is also a security challenge for India.Thus, India is naturally concerned about the developments in the region which she refers to as her ‘extended neighborhood’.

West Asian Turmoil and Implications for India With the issue of climate change becoming an important factor in the energy policies of several countries, the demand for oil from many of the developed countries began tapering off, being replaced by gas, which is a cleaner fuel.By the mid-2000s, demand for gas was seen as the fastest growing of the fossil fuels in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, with Japan being the largest consumer of gas among the Asian countries.As a result, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states who had been unwilling to pay Qatar its asking price for gas, led Doha to seek export markets beyond the region, where it secured much higher prices on long-term bilateral contracts.

Foreign ‘balancing’ policy India has sought to translate its engagement with the world to promote its internal development, and in turn pin this growth to strengthen its position in the international system.The four mainstays of Civilizational ethos shaping India’s strategic intent - realism, co-existence, cooperation and partnership – highlight a more nuanced Indian approach.The emphasis on realism indicates the nuanced shift in ideology from non-alignment of the past, while retaining its core values.

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Similarly, coexistence and cooperation with neighbors highlight the compelling logic of geography to build a stable neighborhood for creating an environment of building stronger trade and economic linkages.This implies achieving peace and sustainable development in the region infl icted with instability and security challenges through building economic inter-dependence.

The underpinning strategy and way forward: One of the most important pillars for India’s great power aspiration is widened strategic infl uence. New Delhi has to increase the bandwidth of its foreign policy and fi nd more areas of mutual interest and strategic convergence in the Middle East without disrupting the balanceit has created in the region in terms of both bilateral and multilateral engagements.So far India has been engaging with Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Israel simultaneously without making any political comments that could affect any bilateral engagements.Maintaining a close relationship with the Sunni monarchs of the Arab world without disrupting the relationship with Iran, and refraining from getting politically involved in any confl ict in the region, could be seen as continuity in terms of India’s engagement with the Middle East.However, there have also been major changes in the form of deepening strategic partnerships and accelerated economic and trade ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia in recent years.The much hackneyed “balancing” policy of New Delhi in the region has so far made sure that India sets its priorities to ensure energy security and accelerate economic ties in the region.Nevertheless, the sectarian-based confl icts and the proxy wars that constantly weaken the Middle East’s security and stability make it extremely complex for India to stabilize its interests in the region, much less venture into new domains of engagements.

‘Changing contours of India’s Soft Power Diplomacy’

Debates

In recent times, India has unleashed its true potential and maintained a strong focus for its use as an instrument of public diplomacy. The article aims to analyse the increasing importance of soft power and how it has shaped India’s foreign policy and behaviour.

BACKGROUND: India’s soft power is strong, and it has been so, long before such a concept was made famous by American political scientist Joseph Nye (an American political scientist) in 1990. For centuries, India’s soft power was already being recognised in many parts of the world, where people learned about and accessed the arts and culture of one of the world’s oldest civilisations. But the most important time, is the past decade when India has increased its use of soft power in a more systematic way. Several initiatives have been launched to push India to the forefront of the international community, including:

the creation of a public diplomacy division within the Ministry of External Affairs in 2006 the worldwide expansion of the Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR)

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the Ministry of Tourism’s ’Incredible India’ campaign the work of the Ministry for Overseas Indians the promotion of business and trade the current government’s diplomatic efforts

These collaborative efforts have not only helped emphasise the social and cultural assets of India abroad, but they also support the country’s major foreign-policy initiatives. In the last few years, the government is focusing on four specifi c soft power assets of India for achieving diplomatic successes and furthering the country’s national interests:

Buddhism Diaspora Yoga economic leverage

ANALYSIS:

Soft power: An instrument of public diplomacy ‘Soft power’ refers to the ability to persuade others to do something using neither force nor coercion (Joseph Nye). While conventional, hard power relies on the State’s military and economic resources, soft power works on persuasion, aiming at furthering a country’s ‘attractiveness’. It is based on three main categories of a country’s resources: Culture political values foreign policies Soft power is mostly based on intangibles such as the power of example. E.g. Yoga, Buddhism, movies, music, spirituality etc. Today, most countries use a combination of soft power and hard power, together called ‘smart power’.

Why is it so signifi cant? Soft power enables a change of behaviour in others, without competition or confl ict, by using persuasion and attraction. Soft power can, no doubt, play a vital role in producing benevolence.It has the capacity to infl uence broader international audiences at large, in shaping the perceptions about the legitimacy and infl uencing environment of the permissive boundaries in which economic and military power is used. Even in the ancient time’s scholars like Kautilya and Kamandak had advocated the use of soft power for achieving progress in state affairs. A country’s soft power infl uence rests on how effectively it uses resources of culture, values, and economic policies.Soft power is power and at times, it is more powerful than hard power.

The true picture of soft power in India: As the world’s largest democracy that is also home to the world’s largest number of impoverished people, India is variously described as a model of soft power or a country that makes remarkably poor use of it. For some, its rich culture and democracy stand in contrast to other authoritarian and revisionist great powers, and indeed many Indian leaders speak positively about the country’s soft power potential. By contrast, as implied by its absence from The Soft Power 30 Index, India evidently does not yet benefi t as much from international awareness, positive associations or investments in cultural diplomacy as many other countries.

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In reality, the picture is mixed. Indeed, there are many ways in which India fares poorly in terms of elements of national attraction. It has a widespread (and often justifi ed) reputation for corruption, endemic poverty and hostility to business. Reports in the international media of pollution in urban areas, child labour and violence against women have also detracted expatriates, tourists, business people and other visitors. At the same time, India’s associations have started to change over the past quarter-century from a land of poverty and Mother Theresa to a source of software programmers and techies.

Challenges: Poor digital penetration & technologies: Though India may be home to more top 30 unicorns (billion-dollar start-ups) than any country (other than the United States and China), its digital penetration remains low, with millions of its population still without access to electricity, and basic digital technologies. Poor cultural diffusion: Second, India rates badly on any measure of state-driven cultural diffusion rather than the more organic and natural private sector and citizen-led efforts.

Though most Indian cultural diffusion to overseas audiences—from yoga to Bollywood—has occurred.The Indian government has is also promoting the study of Hindi abroad in large part because of its linguistic diversity at home.

Poor tourism story: India has a high number of UNESCO World Heritage sites, but still fares poorly on tourism and education on a per capita basis.Lack of infrastructure for cultural development: India was plagued by impoverishment, missing out on positive associations, coupled with lack of investment in cultural diplomacy, a reputation of deep-rooted corruption, hostile business environment, red-tapism, lack of infrastructure and severe pollution in urban areas.Brain drain: There are Indian contributions that are not necessarily associated with the country. E.g.- the export of India’s largest car manufacturer Tata Motors is Jaguar Land Rover, manufactured primarily in Britain and Buddhism.

Looking at the positive side:In recent years, dynamism and policy changes have reshaped India’s perceptions in the outside world. The Government has made concerted efforts to connect with the infl uential Indian Diaspora in all countries. The recent developments in this way can be learnt from the following:

A separate ministry for Indian Diaspora: A separate revitalized ministry was established to address the concerns of the outside Diaspora and re-establish their Indian connect so as to make them active participants in the extension of the country’s goodwill and infl uence. Maintaining Indian legacy: The government was also successful in projecting yoga and Ayurveda as quintessentially Indian legacy. Recognition by UN of June 21, as International Yoga Day on the insistence of Indian government has been a step in the right direction. Alliances with neighbours: Extension of the line of credit to its neighbours including Russia has helped cement new mutually benefi cial alliances in tune with India’s policy of having collaborative, soft diplomacy.Resolving contentious issues: India has further deepened its strategic relationship with the US, improved relations with SAARC countries except for Pakistan, and improved its relations with UAE and Saudi Arabia. Even with China, efforts have been to fi nd common grounds of mutual convergence and fi nd solutions to resolve contentious issues.Alliances with strong platforms: New alliances in the formation of Quad, active role in BRICS, ASEAN, IBSA, G-4 are all indicators of a newly assertive and confi dent India. Emerging as a crusader of environment protection : India has also projected itself as a crusader of environment protection and taken a strong stance against climate change.

With India focussing on domestic economic goals, strategic ties with the US, strengthening relations with all major powers including China and moving away from a Pak centric approach are all policy changes in line with it seeking a much larger, relevant position at the world stage.

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THE ROAD AHEAD:India, a large democracy with a rich culture and a modicum of principle in its international engagement, the country has often benefi ted in tangible ways from its soft power. Today, India is building upon a range of ongoing political and diplomatic efforts, from unveiling its ‘Incredible India’ tourism campaign, getting International Yoga D recognized by the United Nations, Make in India initiative, improving its ease of doing business ranking, it can be expected that India soft power are going to gradually grow in the coming times.

US-China Trade War – Implications and Opportunities for India

Debates

Recently a study by the UN trade and investment body has said that India has emerged as a winner amidst the US-China trade war.

BACKGROUNDAccording to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospect, the global economy has slowed to its lowest pace in three years because international trade and investment have been weaker than expected. International trade has been severely affected by the trade war between the US and China.

Over the course of 2018, the US administration started implementing a series of trade measures to curtail imports, fi rst targeting specifi c products (steel, aluminum, solar panels and washing machines) and then specifi cally targeting imports from China.

In the early summer 2018, US and China raised tariffs on about $50 billion worth of each other′s goods. This escalated further in September 2018 when the US introduced an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, to which China retaliated by imposing tariffs on imports from the US worth an additional $60 billion.

In June 2019, the US increased the tariffs further, to 25%. China responded by raising the tariffs on a subset of products that were already subject to tariffs. In September 2019, the US imposed 15% tariffs on a large subset of the remaining $300 billion worth of imports from China not yet subject to tariffs.

India gained about $755 million in additional exports, mainly of chemicals, metals and ore, to the US in the fi rst half of 2019 due to the trade diversion effects of Washington’s tariff war with China, according to a study by the UN trade and investment body.

ANALYSISTrade war is a subset of Trade Protectionism.

It is a confl ict between two or more nations regarding trade tariff imposition on each other’s goods.

A trade war is usually initiated when a nation imposes tariffs or quotas on imports and foreign countries retaliate with similar forms of trade protectionism. As it escalates, a trade war reduces international trade.

A trade war starts when a nation attempts to protect a domestic industry and create jobs. In the short run, it may work. But in the long run, a trade war costs jobs and depresses economic growth (by suppressing demand for goods as they become expensive) for all countries involved.

It also triggers infl ation when tariffs increase the prices of imports.

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ADVANTAGES

Four Methods of Trade ProtectionismOne way is to enact tariffs that tax imports. That immediately raises the price of the imported goods. They become less competitive when compared to local goods. This method works best for countries with a lot of imports, such as the United States.A second way of protecting trade is when the government subsidizes local industries. This makes the products cheaper even when shipped overseas. Subsidies work even better than tariffs. This method works best for countries that rely mainly on exports.A third method is to impose quotas on imported goods. This method is more effective than the fi rst two. No matter how low a foreign country sets the price through subsidies, it cannot ship more goods.Fourth type of trade protectionism is subtle. It is a deliberate attempt by a country to lower its currency value. This would make its exports cheaper and more competitive. This method can result in retaliation and start a currency war.

Criticism of US ActionOn January 22, 2018, US imposed tariffs and quotas on imported Chinese solar panels and washing machines. China is a world leader in solar equipment manufacturing. The World Trade Organization ruled that the United States acted unfairly in levying the tariff.The head of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said Trump's trade war could cost 2.6 million U.S. jobs. Eight countries have fi led formal complaints with the World Trade Organization. Many of these countries, like Canada, India, and the European Union, are allies. The countries have argued that the US cannot justify the tariffs on the basis of national security.

Imposing tariffs protects the economy from foreign competitors. This provides the new companies time to develop their own competitive advantages.

Protectionism also temporarily creates jobs for domestic workers.

The protection of tariffs, quotas, or subsidies allows domestic companies to hire locally.

However, these benefi ts end once other countries retaliate by erecting their own protectionist measures.

DISADVANTAGES

In the long term, trade protectionism weakens the industry. Without competition, companies within the industry have no need to innovate.

Eventually, the domestic product declines in quality and becomes more expensive than what foreign competitors produce.

Increasing protectionism can further slow down economic growth (weak consumer demand owing to infl ation). It would cause more layoffs, not fewer.

If the country closes its borders, other countries will do the same. This could cause layoffs among the workers who owe their jobs to exports.

Trade war in the long term would hamper global economy due to reduced trade volumes among nations. The IMF noted that the US-China trade tension was one factor that contributed to a “signifi cantly weakened global expansion” in 2018, as it cut its global growth forecast for 2019.

The trade tensions could result in an increasingly fragmented global trading framework, weakening the rules- based system that has underpinned global growth, particularly in Asia, over the past several decades.

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Implications

Sharp decline in bilateral trade: Higher prices for Chinese consumers, losses for US exporters and trade gains for other countries. Of the 35billionChineseexportlossesintheUSmarket,about35billionChineseexportlossesintheUSmarket,about 21 billion (or 62%) was diverted to other countries, while the remainder of $14 billion was either lost or captured by the US producers.

Higher prices for consumers: Tariffs imposed by the United States on China are economically hurting both countries and consumers in the US and China. The analysis shows that US tariffs caused a 25% export loss, infl icting a $35 billion blow to Chinese exports in the US market for tariffed goods in the fi rst half of 2019

Trade diversion effects: Increased imports from countries not directly involved in the trade war. The trade diversion effects of the US-China tariff war for the fi rst half of 2019 at about 21billion, implying that the amount of net trade losses corresponds to about 14 billion.These trade diversion effects have brought substantial benefi ts for Taiwan (province of China), Mexico, and the European Union.Trade diversion benefi ts to Korea, Canada and India were smaller but still substantial, ranging from 0.9 billion to 1.5 billionThe US tariffs on China resulted in India gaining $55 million in additional exports to the US in the fi rst half of 2019 by selling more chemicals $243 million, metals and ore $181million, electrical machinery $83 million and various machinery $68 million as well as increased exports in areas such as agri-food, furniture, offi ce machinery, precision instruments, textiles and apparel and transport equipment

OPPORTUNITIESIndia has an increasingly widening trade gap with China. Ongoing trade war may be an opportunity for India to reduce it signifi cantly.India can export the surplus agricultural products such as soybean to China after decrease in the export from USA.India can become China’s software industry partner, as it looks to replace the US hegemony of technology companies. India needs some strong pegs to pitch to China, and India’s software industry is capable of graduating to a higher level.Growing trade tensions between China and the US could enhance the fl ow of Chinese investment towards India.India can explore opportunities to export the demands of goods by the US after restricted entry of Chinese goods in the US economy. Of the $300 billion in Chinese exports that are subject to US tariffs, only about 6% will be picked up by fi rms in the US, according to a report released by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Here, India can be benefi ted along with other nations.India may be able to increase its exports in textile, garments and gems and jewellery to US if Chinese exports to the US slow down.

CONCERNSAmerica has a trade defi cit with every nation of the G7 grouping and that defi cit has been increasing each year. With India, the US has a trade defi cit of $21.3 billion, which on the contrary is a trade surplus (FOREX earning) for India, which is at risk due to the ongoing trade war.US wants duty reduction from India in Harley Davidson bikes, stents, knee implants and medical devices and dairy and poultry products among others. India has already reduced duty on high powered bikes to 50% from 75%. However, further pressure for duty reduction can affect the domestic production.

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India should remain cautious of China’s intention of dumping its overproduction of steel and aluminium due to restrictions imposed by the US.

The rising price of oil threatens to widen India’s current account defi cit, impacting India’s macroeconomic stability.

India’s already struggling currency may further decline in value due to the ongoing trade war.

CONCLUSIONEven though it is a lengthy and time consuming process, the settlement of disputes through international conventions and rules is the need of the hour.

WTO dispute settlement resolution mechanism should be approached instead of unilateral decisions. The benefi t of the WTO process is that it prevents the damaging consequences of trade protectionism. Nations can resolve their disputes through WTO instead of raising tariffs.

India can derive maximum benefi ts of the opportunities created by the ongoing trade war between the US and China. However, it should remain careful and prepare for the challenges arising out of the trade war.

South China Sea – Conflict, Issues, Problems and challenges

Debates

Recently, Indian Ocean Conference (IOC) in Maldives discussed South China disputes.

BACKGROUNDThe South China Sea, one of the world’s busiest waterways, is subject to several overlapping territorial disputes involving China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei.

The confl ict has remained unresolved for decades but has emerged as a fl ashpoint in China-US relations in Asia.

Beijing outlines the area it claims in the South China Sea with a nine-dash line, rather than a continuous border. Various other claimants have sought a clearer delineation of its claims from offi cials. Mainland China occupied the Paracel Islands following the battle of the Paracel Islands in 1974. In the Spratly Islands, it has occupied six features since 1988 and Mischief Reef since late 1994/early 1995.

In 2018, the entry of an American destroyer into waters within 12 nautical miles of an island over which Beijing has claimed sovereignty is certain to draw international attention again to the rapid military build-up by the Chinese in the South China Sea

At Indian Ocean Conference (IOC) in Maldives the US Ambassador to South Korea attacked China for illegally building artifi cial islands and militarising them in the South China Sea to which China responded by saying that it has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands (Spratly Islands) and the adjacent waters of the sea.

Analysts say the likelihood of the sea becoming the main theatre of Sino-US tension as Washington galvanises allies and friendly countries to do more to challenge Beijing in the waters – in particular, by conducting FONOPs (Freedom of Navigation Operations).

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TIMELINE1994 – The Convention on the Law of the Sea went into effect. The United States called this treaty the “Law of the Sea Convention.”

1997 – Beijing shared the fi rst rendering of its “Nine-dash Line” extending roughly 1,118 miles from Hainan Island to waters off equatorial Borneo under China’s historical claim of having it in the past.

2002 – ASEAN and China signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. 2009 – China issued two diplomatic notes that appear to claim a majority of the South China Sea. 2013 – The Philippines challenged China’s claims of historic rights and other actions in an arbitration case under the Law of the Sea Convention.2014 - The deployment of a Chinese drilling rig in waters near the Paracel Islands led to several confrontations between Vietnamese and Chinese ships and provoked protests in Vietnam. Later Beijing started building military installations. China has also established a new city on one of the islands – Sansha on Woody Island – in turn leading to an increased Chinese tourism.2016 – The Arbitration Tribunal ruled in favor of the Philippines and rejected China’s maritime claims that go beyond the entitlements set out in the Convention. However, Beijing rejected the ruling and described it has having “no binding force”.

ANALYSIS

What is the confl ict about?The Philippines, Vietnam, China, Brunei, Taiwan and Malaysia hold different, sometimes overlapping, territorial claims over the sea, based on various accounts of history and geography.China claims more than 80 per cent, while Vietnam claims sovereignty over the Paracel Islands and the Spratly Islands.The Philippines asserts ownership of the Spratly archipelago and the Scarborough Shoal, while Brunei and Malaysia have claimed sovereignty over southern parts of the sea and some of Spratly Islands.Over the years, the claimants have seized control of a raft of sea features, including rocks, islands and low-tide elevations.China‘s “nine-dash line” is a geographical marker used to assert its claim. It stretches as far as 2,000km from the Chinese mainland, reaching waters close to Indonesia and Malaysia. It is violative of the principle of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ)The stalled negotiations between China and ASEAN made headway on Code of Conduct as four of the ASEAN nations also made territorial claims on the disputed waters which adds to the problem with already non-negotiable behavior of China.

Why is it important?The South China Sea is a key commercial thoroughfare connecting Asia with Europe and Africa, and its seabed is rich with natural resources. One third of global shipping, or a total of US$3.37 trillion of international trade, passes through the South China Sea.About 80 per cent of China’s oil imports arrive via the Strait of Malacca, in Indonesia, and then sail across the South China Sea to reach China.The sea is also believed to contain major reserves of natural resources, such as natural gas and oil. The US Energy Information Administration estimates the area contains at least 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Other estimates are as high as 22 billion barrels of oil and 290 trillion cubic feet of gas.The South China Sea also accounts for 10 per cent of the world’s fi sheries, making it a key source of food for hundreds of millions of people.

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What role does the US play in the dispute?The US has wide-ranging security commitments in East Asia, and is allied with several of the countries bordering the South China Sea, such as the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam.

Furthermore, the South China Sea is a vital trade route in the global supply chain, used by American companies who produce goods in the region.

Although the US does not offi cially align with any of the claimants, it has conducted Freedom of Navigation operations, designed to challenge what Washington considers excessive claims and grant the free passage of commercial ships in its waters.

During the summer of 2018, British and French forces conducted similar operations in the disputed waters.

Is there any resolution in sight?Southeast Asian nations have traditionally rejected looking for a bilateral solution with China, the region’s main economic and military power. Despite this, one year after the landmark ruling against China’s territorial claims, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte agreed to solve the dispute with China through bilateral talks.

Similarly, Vietnam, the most outspoken critic of China, has softened its stance. In April 2018, the government said it would be willing to hold talks with China to resolve disputes in the area “in accordance with international law”.

ASEAN has been working with China on an offi cial code of conduct to avoid clashes in the disputed waters. A binding agreement has been discussed for years to little avail but in August 2018 it was revealed all the parties had agreed on a single draft negotiating text.

CHALLENGESChina’s behavior of negligence, denial and the sense of superiority while overlooking international laws and regulations like the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Along with China’s bullying tactics, North Korea’s provocative behaviour has attracted US aircrafts in the already troubled waters. The growth of military vessels and planes in the area makes it more challenging to handle.

Undefi ned geographic scope of the South China Sea; disagreement over dispute settlement mechanisms; different approaches to confl ict management (self-restraint, mutual trust, and confi dence building); and the undefi ned legal status of the Code of Conduct (COC) add to it.

The different histories of distant, largely uninhabited archipelagos of the sea make the matter more complicated and multifaceted.

ACHIEVEMENTSThe members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China engaged in discussions on a potential COC to manage the South China Sea maritime and territorial disputes for a very long time and fi nally settled for a non-binding Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) in 2002. In 2005, the fi rst draft of guidelines to implement the DOC was drawn up, but not adopted until 2011. However, problems still linger so a plan for more robust policies is needed.

After the consultations of 2016, in 2017 ASEAN and China adopted a bare-bone framework for the COC.

SUGGESTIONSNew arbitration processes to bring necessary mediation, facilitation and binding resolution mechanism which can move the military dispute to border management and to joint development fi nally.

Adopting the concept of joint development zones, which resolves the territorial disputes and allows to pursuit of joint commercial activities, environmental protection, disaster relief and humanitarian perspective and counter-piracy control.

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International disputes should be settled by peaceful means in line with international laws on the principle of safeguarding maritime security, navigation and over fl ight rights and freedoms.

India’s Stand on South China Sea IssueIn a Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia-Pacifi c and the Indian Ocean Region, India and the USA talked about ensuring freedom of navigation and resolving disputes according to UNCLOS referring to the South China Sea but after Philippines won the arbitration award in its favour in 2016, India has clearly separated itself from the dispute.

New Delhi has not conducted any defence cooperation, navigational patrols and naval exercises with the claimant states in the South China Sea (only recently it conducted a naval exercise with Vietnam).

After the recent development of affairs with Japan and Russia, it might appear that India wants to raise its strategic presence in the South China Sea but it is not so. Firstly, because India is not a party to the maritime territorial disputes in the region and does not want to interfere. Secondly, India wants to preserve its “Wuhan Consensus” with China, in which both nations respect each other’s spheres of infl uence in their adjacent water bodies.

WAY FORWARD

Forming an overarching authority like NATO or European Union (EU) with China as a member, in Asia to settle grievances and specifi cally fi nd solutions to Asian problems, might help resolve disputes like this.

The sense of power of China needs to be checked so that it abides by the intergovernmental and international agreements and conventions.

Peaceful bilateral or multilateral talks and negotiations can be used because aggression or war is not a solution to this or any problem at all.

India-China Relations

Debates

Recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited India for the second Informal Summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

BACKGROUND

India and China both the countries started off on cordial note post-independence with signing of Panchsheel. However the relations turned cold post 1962 war which created mistrust between the two countries since then.

India-China relationship is dotted with competition, cooperation, and discord. In 2017 these played out in India’s critique of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), India’s entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the dramatic crisis in Doklam, the acceleration of multilateral cooperation in the BRICS and attempts to foster economic engagement.

Both the countries have similar attributes and problems including large population, huge rural-urban divide, rising economy and confl ict with neighbours.

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ANALYSIS

Cooperation

Economic Relations Trade:

The India-China bilateral trade reached $84.44 billion in 2017.India has emerged as the seventh largest export destination for Chinese products and the 24th largest exporter to China.India’s top exports to China include diamonds, cotton yarn, iron ore, copper and organic chemicals.India imports electrical machinery and equipment, fertilizer, antibiotics and organic compounds.The trade defi cit had crossed $52 billion in 2017. India has been pressing China to open IT and Pharmaceutical sectors for Indian fi rms to reduce the massive trade defi cit.

Investment and Banking: Seven Indian Banks have opened branches in China. Chinese bank and ICBC have opened branches in India.Cumulative Chinese investment in India till March 2017 stood at US$ 4.91 billion. The cumulative Indian investment in China till March 2017 reached US$ 705 million.

E-business visa: More recently, in April 2017, e-business visa has been introduced to encourage more number of business people from China travelling to India. It will give push to the trade and business cooperation.Dialogue Mechanisms: The India-China Economic and Commercial Relations are shaped through various dialogue mechanism:

Joint Economic Group led by the Commerce Ministers of both sidesStrategic Economic Dialogues led by the Vice Chairman of NITI Ayog and the Chairman of National Development and Reform Commission of ChinaNITI Ayog and the Development Research Center Dialogue and the Financial Dialogue led by Secretary Department of Economic Affairs of India and Vice Minister, Ministry of Finance of PRC.

Cultural relations India-China cultural exchanges date back to many centuries and there is some evidence that conceptual and linguistic exchanges existed in 1500-1000 B.C. between the Shang-Zhou civilization and the ancient Vedic civilization.During fi rst, second and third centuries A.D. several Buddhist pilgrims and scholars travelled to China on the historic “silk route”.As a mark of the historical civilizational contact between India and China, India constructed a Buddhist temple in Luoyang, Henan Province, inside the White Horse Temple complex which was said to have been built in honour of the Indian monks KashyapaMatanga and Dharmaratna.Yoga is becoming increasingly popular in China . China was one of the co-sponsors to the UN resolution designating June 21 as the International Day of Yoga.Indian Bollywood movies were popular in China in the 1960s and 1970s and the popularity is being rekindled in recent times again. India and China have entered into an agreement on co-production of movies, the fi rst of which based on the life of the monk XuanZang hit the theaters in 2016.

Education Relation India and China signed Education Exchange Programme (EEP) in 2006, which is an umbrella agreement for educational cooperation between the two countries. Under this agreement, government scholarships are awarded to 25 students, by both sides, in recognized institutions of higher learning in each other’s country.

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Chinese students are also annually awarded scholarships to study Hindi at the Kendriya Hindi Sansthan, Agra to learn HindiBRICS Network University and BRICS Think Tank Council are institutional networks for engaging with each other in education research and innovation.

Indian Diaspora In chinaThe Indian community in China is growing. Present estimates put the community strength to around 35,500. A major part of this comprises of students (over 18000), who are pursuing courses in various universities in China.A number of Indians and PIOs are also working as professionals with various multinational and Indian companies.Indian diaspora will help in further strengthening our ties with China.

Mutual Interests of India and ChinaBoth are members of BRICS, which is now establishing a formal lending arm, the New Development Bank. India is a founding member of the China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. China welcomed India’s full membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, anEurasian political, economic, and security alliance.Both countries have advocated democratization of international institutions such as World Bank, IMF, etc. China and India have similar stand during WTO negotiations. China and India, being the main targets of criticism by the US and its friends, have so far successfully coordinated their strategies in the environmental summits

Major irritantsTrade imbalance is skewed in China’s favour viz. $52 billion when total trade volume was of the value of $84.44 billion in 2017Border Disputes – India and China share about 3,488-km long border which is yet to be fully delineated. The skirmishes between the security forces of the two countries in Dokhlam, Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh are common in this disputed state of borders.India supports a Tibetan govt. in exile formed by Dalai Lama which is unacceptable to china. China recently opposed to the Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh, particularly Tawang, which it considers as Southern Tibet. On recent Visit of President Xi Jinping, Tibetian leaders in India were arrested.China began the practice of issuing stapled visa to residents of Arunachal Pradesh and Pakistan occupied Jammu & Kashmir, though it stopped it for PoK but continues for AP.China has an undeclared policy of String of Pearls to encircle India, which involves building of ports and naval bases around India’s maritime reaches. While India has been trying to develop closer arrangements with the countries surrounding China viz. Japan, South Korea & Vietnam.China has been building dams in Tibet part of Brahmaputra. India has objected but there has been no formal treaty over sharing of the Brahmaputra water.China has been blocking India’s entry to NSG & has also blocked India’s attempt at the UN for sanctions against Jash-e-Mohammad chief MasoodAzhar many times but fi nally MasoodAzhar was put on UN blacklist.India considers building of the CPEC as China’s interference in India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

India’s Three-Pronged Strategy towards ChinaThe fi rst prong is to engage in bilateral and multilateral forums such as BRICS, SCO and the Russia-India-China trilateral, in order to maintain overall stability, deepen economic ties, and foster diplomatic cooperation on regional and international issues.India has also sustained efforts to enhance its military and deterrent capabilities as the second prong of policy.

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There is an emerging third prongin India’s China policy in the form of new external balancing effort. The evolution of India-US relations in particular but also of India’s relationships with Japan and Australia as well as the quadrilateral cooperation among them indicates a growing convergence in their views regarding stability in the Indo-Pacifi c region particularly with respect to China’s intentions in laying territorial claims to more than 80 per cent of the South China Sea as well as to the sovereign territories of India and Japan.

WAY FORWARDNecessary to build up economic and security capabilities and begin to close the power gap with China. India’s foreign policy formulations on China and Pakistan need no longer be considered as separate instead one hyphenated strategic entity.Time for India to join hands with Japan, US and EU to promote alternatives to Chinese economic exploitation.India should aggressively pursue ‘Cotton Route’, Project Mausam and Spice Route to strengthen economic ties between countries in the Indian Ocean rim.Bring into action planned strategic Asia Africa Growth Corridor with the help of Japan. Quad Grouping should be made more effective to play important role in the Indian ocean security. Wuhan and Mamalapuram like summits should continue to ease the tension between India and China.

Afghan Peace Process

Debates

Afghanistan’s High Peace Council Secretary and President Ashraf Ghani’s Special Envoy Mohammad UmerDaudzai recently visited India.

Speaking at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), Daudzai said that India’s role is ‘key’ to the peace in Afghanistan.

Also, India recently handed over two Mi-24 attack helicopters to Afghanistan. These helicopters are a replacement for the four attack helicopters gifted by India to Afghanistan in 2015.

BACKGROUND:There has been a continued 25 years of civil war in Afghanistan. An Afghanistan force and Taliban confl ict has been sustained during this long time and damage social and economic life make peace elusive for Afghanistan.International efforts especially by US and NATO countries have been failed. They have spent hundreds of billion dollar and army services but no avail.However, today progress towards a peace process is increasingly seen as central to securing a just and stable future. At reconciliation meet in November 2018 by afghan authorities, India was present and the fi rst time all stakeholders were present in the same room.

ANALYSIS

Role of USA in Afghan Peace Process:S. and Taliban negotiators have concluded a draft peace framework. This draft framework was built on years of direct and indirect talks between the two parties.

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Under the framework, the Taliban would be required to deny safe haven to international terrorist groups like al-Qaida and the self-proclaimed Islamic State, has to enter into direct talks with Afghan government and also agree to declare ceasefi re.In exchange, the United States would withdraw forces from Afghanistan within eighteen months of a fi nal agreement.

Contribution of other countries in the process:The effort to achieve this draft peace framework was made possible with the help of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar at various stages.Yet the framework does not make clear what role regional states will play in achieving a fi nal settlement. Just as regional competition fuelled Afghanistan’s long war, regional states have a role to play in resolving it.

Pakistan:Pakistan has been a central participant in all phases of Afghanistan’s long war. The US promised to pursue a pressure strategy aimed at punishing Pakistan for its malign behaviour, including by allowing Taliban leaders and fi ghters to freely live and organize from its territory.But Pakistani civilian and military leaders feel optimistic about the current draft framework, as its pursuit delayed the escalation of this pressure campaign.The best-case scenario for Pakistan is likely a narrow agreement that does not force it to take responsibility for its past actions in Afghanistan.

China:China’s interests in Afghanistan are most closely aligned with Pakistan, although Beijing’s concerns about violent extremism and terrorism are out of step with Pakistani behaviour.S. and Chinese diplomats have worked together to support an Afghan peace process, and Beijing will want to be involved enough to account for its counterterrorism and border security concerns.China has much to offer in terms of inducements to support a peace agreement in Afghanistan, particularly economically through Belt and Road Initiative investments in Pakistan (the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) or Central Asia (the Silk Road Economic Belt).

RussiaRussia hosted a second round of Taliban talks in February 2019 without participation of Afghan government. These talks risk easing pressure on the Taliban and further bolstering its standing, but could be leveraged to help the U.S. diplomatic effort.The U.S. and Afghan governments should fi nd ways to take advantage of Moscow’s efforts and show up to any Russia-hosted talks, even if only to deny the Taliban an uncontested boon.

IndiaWith limited options of intervention in Afghanistan, India is playing a role of a responsible democratic country and a true friend and neighbour to the Afghanistan.Indian is engaged with Afghanistan by following ways: Developing social infrastructure as hospitals, schools; Public infrastructure such as Salma dam, and parliament building ; Humanitarian assistance such as medical missions; Training of military offi cer and soldiers; Military warfare such as military helicopters and repairing the old soviet era helicopters.

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India is likely concerned that any deal that could introduce the Taliban back into the Afghan government could dilute its political infl uence in Afghanistan.India’s hedge toward Iran, by investing in the construction of the Chabahar port (the only Iranian port with direct access to the Indian Ocean), could pave the way for a continuing economic role.But India would probably see a peace agreement, particularly one championed by Pakistan, as a short-term setback to its interests in Afghanistan.

Afghan as an elusive benefi t for India:Afghanistan is a gateway for the north-south corridor for India. Afghan have a rich source of oil can help India to full fi ll their demand. India developed Chahbar port to increase import and export with Afghan and counter Pakistan in West Sea. Elusive peace in afghan can help India project of TAPI. Help India to overcome china one-road-one-belt initiatives.

Effect on India if Taliban comes to power:Pakistan will gain huge strategic infl uence and India will lose the same. India’s access to central India will get affected. After conquering Afghanistan Taliban may turn towards India to increase terror activities. Pakistan will then focus on Indian border only. As China has also raised its stakes it will use it against India.

Reasons for India to be part of reconciliation process with the Taliban:Regional Stability: Security and Stability are foundations over which development can be built on. Peaceful neighbourhood and trouble free regional climate will provide space for the regimes to focus more on development as threats of violence by Taliban’s in the region will be minimized.Counter China and Pakistan’s vested interests: India should play a considerable role through Quadrilateral group plus 2 talks to thwart the efforts of china to place puppet regimes which can play according to their own vested interests. This can be counterproductive for India’s aspirations and concerns.Connectivity with Central Asia: India’s trade with Central Asia and reaping benefi ts from the enhanced connectivity will be largely dependent on Afghanistan’s domestic environment. A peaceful and cooperative Afghanistan will be a key pin in India’s central Asia policy. The latest trilateral transit agreement between India. Iran and Afghanistan is a signifi cant step in this direction.TAPI for Energy security: Violence free Afghanistan is desideratum for fi nishing the project of TAPI and sustaining the benefi ts from it through energy supplies from Turkmenistan.Gateway to “Link west” policy: Afghanistan will act as a gateway to India’s increasing rigour on its west Asia policy.Minerals of Afghanistan: The cost of access to minerals will be minimum and helpful in expanding the production of Indian Industries.

WAY FORWARD:India needs to make stands tougher on Afghan issues. India needs to take other stake holders such as Russia and Iran together and make their stand clear.India should be more vocal to USA that leaving Taliban unfi nished will leave the region in same or even worse state as it was earlier. Complete surrender of Taliban is good for USA’s and region security.India needs to use soft Image as weapon and it should highlight that Afghan people voice is most important so instead of handing power to any form of government US should try to stabilise region.

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It is a truth of U.S. policy on Afghanistan that there is no military solution to the confl ict. But instead of putting the full power and resources of the United States behind a diplomatic push, successive administrations have chosen to put the military mission fi rst. They have often deployed just enough resources to have an effect on the ground, while minimizing attention from increasingly weary constituents in the United States. It is long past time for a different approach.The U.S.-Taliban draft framework is exactly the type of high-stakes diplomacy needed to end Afghanistan’s long war, or even just the U.S. period of that confl ict, which is the longest war in U.S. history.

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