International Society for Child Indicators (ISCI)

Inaugural Conference

June 26-28

Chicago, Illinois USASponsored by:

Annie E. Casey FoundationChapin Hall Center for Children at the University of Chicago

Childwatch InternationalFoundation for Child Development

Institute for Family and Neighborhood Life, Clemson UniversityPaul Baerwald School of Social Work and Social Welfare, The Hebrew

University of JerusalemSpringer Academic Publishers

Chicago Children and Youth 1990-2010:

Changing Population Trends

Goals• To provide Chicago leaders with

accurate annual estimates of early childhood program target population size in the 77 Chicago Community Areas

• To forecast population size changes through 2010

• To understand changing characteristics of children in Chicago

• To better understand possible mismatches between the size of target populations and the number of program slots

Data sources used in the study

• 1990 and 2000 Census, U.S. Census Bureau;

• 1990-2005 Cook County population estimates, U.S. Census Bureau;

• U.S. Census Bureau 1995-2003 age 5-17 poverty estimates for the Chicago Public Schools;

• Chicago Public Schools enrollment data;

• Illinois Workforce Information Center Cook County unemployment data for 1990-2006;

• Aggregate food stamp population 1990-2004

Major Points - I

• Fewer around the loop• More in southwest and northwest• Southeast side is growing• More Hispanic children is driving

change• Poor children spread across Chicago

Major Points - II

• More services in some communities compared to others

• Schools are being opened close to where the population is growing

• Head Start has good coverage in the poorest communities in Chicago

• State Pre-K has better coverage on the northwest and southeast sides

• Child care resources and After School programs reflect the way the population was in the mid 1990’s.

•losing about 6 percent of their population every year since 1990

•Grand Boulevard

•Washington Park

•Douglas

•New West Side

•West Town

•Uptown

•Riverside

•growing at an average rate of 6 percent every year since 1990

• West Lawn

• Archer Heights

• Brighton Park

•10 percent per year from 1990 to 1995, but then about 3 percent per year since

•Belmont-Cragin

•Montclare

•Avondale

•Loop

•West Elson

•Gage Park

•about 2 percent per year since 1990

•Northwest

•Southwest

•Southeast

Did not growor decline

Hispanic child population

• Of the 29 communities that have large growth over the past 15 years, 27 have had increases in their Hispanic 0-17 population.

• Those community areas with the largest overall growth have seen the largest growth in the Hispanic population

• We project that late in this decade that Hispanic 0-17 year olds will be the largest group in the city, surpassing African-American children.

Next steps

• Expand estimates and forecasts to region

• Understand the multiple program use in early childhood

• Available at www.chapinhall.org