International policy frameworks and architectures on climate change

Katharine Vincent

Background to an agreement on climate change•In the late 1980s scientists brought climate change to attention of policy-makers in US•WMO and UNEP established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1988•Publication of the first assessment report led the UNGA to consider a framework convention (UNFCCC)

UNFCCC

•Signed in 1992 at the Rio Earth Summit by practically every state (including the US)

•Commits countries to working together to address the issue of climate change BUT it has no binding targets or obligations – they come in the form of protocols to the framework convention

Kyoto Protocol

•Signed at Kyoto, Japan in 1997•Commits developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 8-12% on 1990 levels by 2008-2012•There are no commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for developing countries (note this is why the US does not support Kyoto)

Kyoto Protocol 2

•To enter into force, the protocol had to be ratified by a certain number of countries making up a certain % of the 1990 greenhouse gas emissions •The US is the biggest emitter and withdrew in 2001 – so it was thought the Protocol would never come into force

How does the Kyoto Protocol work?To help countries meet their targets there are several flexible mechanisms within the Kyoto protocol:

• joint implementation (where developed countries can fund projects in transition countries to improve energy efficiency etc, and have the carbon reductions offset against their targets)•clean development mechanism (essentially the same thing but in developing countries)•emissions trading (carbon trading), e.g. EU ETS

The negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol•Took 5 years after signing the UNFCCC for the first Protocol to be negotiated•Took 8 years after signing the first Protocol for it to be ratified and come into force•Primarily nation states, but several groupings (EU, G77, OPEC, the Umbrella Group)•Negotiations take place at annual Conferences of the Parties (meetings of signatories to the UNFCCC) – and now also Members of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol

COP/MOP historyCOP-1 (1995) – Berlin, GermanyCOP-2 (1996) – Geneva, SwitzerlandCOP-3 (1997) – Kyoto, JapanCOP-4 (1998) – Buenos Aires, ArgentinaCOP-5 (1999) – Bonn, GermanyCOP-6 (2000) – The Hague, NetherlandsCOP-6.5 (2001) – Bonn, GermanyCOP-7 (2001) – Marrakech, MoroccoCOP-8 (2002) – New Delhi, IndiaCOP-9 (2003) – Milan, ItalyCOP-10 (2004) – Buenos Aires, ArgentinaCOP-11/MOP-1 (2005) – Montreal, CanadaCOP-12/MOP-2 (2006) – Nairobi, KenyaCOP-13/MOP-3 (2007) – Bali, Indonesia

Who attends the COP/MOP?•National government delegations who work in their own interests and that of any coalitions to which they belong (DEAT leads the South African delegation)•NGOs and interest groups (CAN as an epistemic community)•Business (can form an effective obstacle)

What is negotiated at the COP/MOP?•The rules of operation of the law, e.g.

•compliance and penalties for non-compliance•technology transfer•carbon sinks•financial support for adaptation

Often polarised into developed country/mitigation issues and developing country/adaptation issues

Beyond the COP/MOP?•International Secretariat of the UNFCCC is situated in Bonn, Germany•Responsible for assisting with reporting requirements, e.g. National Communications (reports on status of GHG emissions by sector etc) and National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPAs)•Intermediate technical meetings (Subsidiary Body on Information-SBI and Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technological Advice-SBSTA)

Is the Kyoto Protocol a success?•In terms of climate change – no! Reductions are too small after sinks were incorporated after COP-6.5 (the 2003 UK Energy White Paper says that we need to reduce emissions by 60% by 2050 to stop dangerous climate change)

•In terms of global environmental governance – yes! (for so many countries to negotiate international environmental law is a first)

What will happen post-2012?

•Bali roadmap outlines 2 year process to finalise the post-2012 regime

-based on “nationally appropriate” mitigation options by developing countries

•Continue with Kyoto? Expand Kyoto? Modify Kyoto based on carbon pricing? Focus on adaptation?

Alternative regimes 1

•Washington Declaration (signed 2007)-Global cap-and-trade system to be in operation by 2009-supported by Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, UK, US, Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa

Alternative regimes 2

•The G8 leaders in June 2007 agreed to aim to half greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, with the specifics to be worked out by environment ministers and to include the big-emitting developing countries

Alternative regimes 3

•The Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate

-to encourage projects aimed at clean energy capacity; has no enforcement mechanism-supported by Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and the US

Africa and the UNFCCC•Most states are signatories to the UNFCCC•Most states are signatories to the Kyoto Protocol

-no reduction commitments under Kyoto first commitment period, highly likely South Africa will have a reduction commitment under Kyoto second commitment period

•Benefits from the flexible mechanisms (CDM) – over 80% of CDM projects in Africa are in South Africa

Sources of further information•UNFCCC website

http://unfccc.int

•Earth Negotiations Bulletin (reporting service covering negotiations – COP/MOPs and SBI/SBSTA meetings)

http://www.iisd.ca/enbvol/enb-background.htm