international museum membership conference · your donor and member data to inform your marketing...
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1Cover Page
International Museum Membership Conference:How Cutting-Edge Data Analytics Can Revolutionize Your Membership ProgramPresented November 9, 2015
Avalon Consulting Group, Inc.All rights reserved, 2015Avalonconsulting.net
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Here with you today…
David Saunders – Director of Membership – National Museum of the American Indian
NMAI is committed to advancing the knowledge and understanding of the Native cultures of the Western Hemisphere, past, present, and future, through partnership with Native people and others. The museum works to support the continuance of culture, traditional values, and transitions in contemporary Native life.
Edison Wato – Director of Membership – National Museum of African American History and Culture
The National Museum of African American History and Culture will be a place where all Americans can learn about the richness and diversity of the African American experience, what it means to their lives and how it helped us shape this nation. A place that transcends the boundaries of race and culture that divide us, and becomes a lens into a story that unites us all. Scheduled to open in fall 2016, the museum is under construction on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., on a five-acre tract adjacent to the Washington Monument.
Allison Porter – President – Avalon Consulting Group Avalon is a full-service direct marketing fundraising agency. Since 1997, Avalon has
helped our clients raise millions of dollars to achieve their visions for a better world—while building relationships with people who share their passion and support their important causes.
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In today’s session…
Through actual examples, learn critical ways to view your donor and member
data to inform your marketing strategy.
Learn how to recognize how underlying trends
have changed over time, and how they vary by
organization and strategy.
Identify key metrics and performance indicators
that are relevant for comparison, and what
those comparisons tell you about the health of your file.
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What are key performance trends?
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Comparing key metrics and critical analytical views will give you a deeper view into the health, future performance, and potential of your member file.
Retention List return on investment
File composition
File trajectory and impact of
acquisition
Member value
Cross channel analysis
Major donor pipeline
Metrics should be compared over time, and to other organizations, when evaluating their significance.
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Case Studies
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National Museum of the American Indian
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Situational Analysis:
• Membership program established in 1991 as part of the museum’s capital campaign to open the Cultural Resources Center andthe Museum on the National Mall.
• The museum opened in Sept 2004.• Current membership of 40,000 households
nationwide.• 70% of members live outside the DC and NYC
metropolitan areas.• Members and revenue increased dramatically
through the opening of the museum, and then experienced a sharp decline. NMAI has been hard at work to stabilize the program since this time.
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$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Thou
sand
s
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
After the museum opening, NMAI experienced a decline in revenue both due to the event and a decrease in acquisition investment. Also, effects of 9/11 on DM industry.
• This view shows the impact of acquisition year over year.
Museum Opening
Key Trend #1:
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
New Joins
Direct Mail Web Email
Reinvestment
After reduced acquisition, NMAI strategically reinvested in direct mail to rebuild the file.
Key Trend #3:
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This investment has paid off – revenue has started to grow after years of decline.
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mill
ions
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Join Year
Growth: 8% Growth: 2%
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Key Trend #3: After reinvesting in acquisition, NMAI has seen a subsequent decline in first-year retention.
• This is not an atypical trend but it is one that will be watched closely. Retention should be reviewed frequently to recognize potential issues as soon as possible.
55.0%
70.5%65.8%
27.0%23.2%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14Overall Overall w/Reinstates Multi-Year First-Year
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NMAI has used cross-channel views to identify trends by channel and diversify revenue since the museum opening.
$0$500
$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
Thou
sand
s
Mail TM Web Email
Key Trend #4:
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Key Trend #5: Members giving through multiple channels show higher income per member.
$78.52 $73.80 $70.90$62.76
$56.70 $55.10
DM, TM, Weband Email
DM and Email DM, TM andWeb
DM and Web DM and TM DM Only
Income/Member
Key Trend #5:
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Moving forward:
• NMAI will continue to build on current progress through added investment.
• As the program grows, regular review of metrics like retention are key to maintaining file health.
• NMAI continues to explore options to increase multi-channel giving and build value within the current file.
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National Museum of African American History and Culture
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Situational Analysis:
• Program established in Sept 2009 tobuild a membership base to support planned museum opening in fall 2016.
• NMAAHC has grown dramatically since that time, reaching a high point of 42,821 active members in July 2015.
• The program will continue to grow through the September 2016 opening.
• Maintaining a strong and stable base of membership support beyond 2016 is a priority for the new museum.
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NMAAHC’s membership program has increased steadily since the inception of the program.
• Steady and generally increasing acquisition investment has allowed the program to grow year over year.
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mill
ions
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Key Trend #1:
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0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15Multi-Year Single-Year
For a start up program, increasing the ratio of multi-year to single-year members is a key goal.
• NMAAHC now has more multi-year members than single-year members and has continued to build year over year.
Key Trend #2:
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0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600%
NAACP Leg Def & Ed Fund
AICR AFRICAN AMERICAN CONTRIBUTORS
Multibuyers
National Museum of the American Indian
NAACP
Sierra Club
Negro Leagues Baseball Museum
Native American Rights Fund
Common Cause
Environmental Defense Fund
Wash Spectator
American Heart Assn
African American Democratic Contributors
League of Women Voters
African American High $ Democrats
Black Literary Club
Black Tie Democrats
Key Analysis: List Return on Investment Assessment
• Because upfront performance and long-term value are not always aligned, NMAAHC utilizes return on investment by acquisition list to strategically build the membership program.
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-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Poster PR
Slavery PR
Plypak PR
Survey PR
Bookmark PR OSE Test
Bookmark PR
Key Analysis: Acquisition Package Return on Investment
• NMAAHC has tested a number of acquisition packages during the program start up. Assessing long-term value allows NMAAHC to better make decisions about the growth of the program.
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$0$20$40$60$80
$100$120$140$160
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Using key analytical tools for guidance, NMAAHC has gradually increased member value since the start of the program.
• Member value by 4-5 years is strong compared to other organizations.
Key Trend #3:
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• NMAAHC is using forecasting to predict the trajectory of the file and anticipate future changes. Based on this analysis, investment strategies will be outlined to guide the program.
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
$4,000,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20continuing reactivating 2nd year new Gross Revenue Net Revenue
Museum opening end of FY16
ME
MB
ER
S
RE
VE
NU
E
Key Analysis: Long-range forecasting to predict future trends
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Moving forward:
• NMAAHC will continue to watch key performance trends as the file continues to grow.
• Using analytics, NMAAHC has an opportunity to anticipate and address future trends to maintain stability during the volatile window after the museum’s opening.
• NMAAHC will be focusing on member retention strategies to preserve the strong base of the program after the opening of the museum.
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Friends of Smithsonian
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Situational Analysis:
• Friends of Smithsonian is a mature androbust membership program with a member history that stretches to before1990.
• Currently, there are nearly 80,000 active Friends.• After years of growth, the program has been
steady in recent years. FOS has developed a structured “donor track” to help reinvigorate the file.
• The Friends program is actively seeking ways to return to a pattern of growth through increased acquisition of both members and donors.
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Based on current acquisition levels, the program is expected to decline through 2016.
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
new
reactivating
2nd year
continuing
Projected
Key Trend #1:
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FOS has implemented a structured donor program to drive more supporters into the program and offset member decline.
• The donor program has increased dramatically since 2012.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15Single-Year Members Single-Year Donors
Key Trend #2:
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‐
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
new
reactivating
2nd year
continuing
Projected
The donor program is projected to increase, in line with the current trend.
• Predictions of file trajectory are crucial in guiding decisions around acquisition investment.
Key Trend #3:
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$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
Year 1
Year 5DonorsMembers
Members vs. Donors - $50 level
Long-term value analysis indicates that members are still worth far more than donors, but these metrics should come more in line as the program evolves.
• FOS will continue to monitor this trend with ongoing analysis.
Key Trend #4:
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Strong and improving first-year retention metrics indicate that added acquisition investment can be sustained.
52.7% 51.5% 49.0% 46.8%
54.2% 52.4% 52.9% 53.4% 56.2% 53.7%
19.5% 21.1% 22.5%17.9% 17.3% 17.5% 14.9%
19.9%25.5%
30.4%
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14Members Donors
Key Trend #5:
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The Friends program also has a strong feeder track to major gifts. Upgrading is a priority and is closely analyzed.
• 44% of $1,000+ multi-gift Friends started with a first gift below $75. 70% started with a gift below $150.
44%
26%4%
6%5% 16%
<$75 $75-149 $150-249 $250-499 $500-999 $1,000+
Key Trend #6:
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Moving forward:
• With the goal of stability and then growth, the Friends program will use this analysis and more to project future trends and inform decision making.
• Strong donor-level metrics (retention, long-term value) indicate added investment is wise and will return quickly.
• Regular (quarterly and annual) review of key performance metrics allows FOS to keep tabs on key trends and changes as the new donor program evolves.
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Wrap Up
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Quarterly and annual oversight of key metrics
through dashboards and full file analysis.
Identification of
changing performanc
e trends.
Continuous goal
evaluation, resetting,
and forecasting.
Education and
reporting to leadership.
REPEAT.
How do you do this for your program?
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Questions?
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How Cutting-Edge Data Analytics Can Revolutionize Your Membership Program
David SaundersDirector of MembershipNational Museum of the American [email protected]
Edison WatoMembership Program Manager National Museum of African American History and [email protected]
Allison PorterPresidentAvalon Consulting [email protected] x 102