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Published On: February 29, 2016
International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research ISSN: 2347-1697
Volume 3 Issue 6 February 2016 Original Paper
Abstract
The fast growing traffic population with restricted right of way in the undulating terrain conditions always poses challenges to Traffic management and planning process. It lowers the Level of Service (LOS) as well as increases density to regulate the flow in peak hours. With these prevailing conditions, a study was carried out for Port Blair town, capital of Andaman & Nicobar Islands, to carry out the traffic analysis and to find out the impact of Mass Transportation in improving the present traffic flow. Eight major roads contributing to Port Blair traffic were selected and their profile survey and traffic volume survey was carried out to assess the gradient and LOS respectively. LOS was compared as per the standards given in Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) and as per the User perception inputs collected by Questionnaire survey carried out amongst the road users. In order to reduce the density and to improve the flow the impact of Mass transportation system was analysed which reflected towards the reduction of density and regulating traffic stream to a great extent.
Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port
Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation Paper ID IJIFR/ V3/ E6/ 059 Page No. 2178-2198 Subject Area
Civil Engineering
Keywords Gradient, LOS, Port Blair Traffic Volume, Terrain, User perception, Mass
Transportation
1st Surendran Raji
Assistant Professor Department Of Civil Engineering Dr. B. R. Ambedkar Institute of Technology Port Blair, Andaman & Nicobar Islands
2nd A. Arun Kumar Student Department Of Civil Engineering Dr. B. R. Ambedkar Institute of Technology Port Blair, Andaman & Nicobar Islands
3rd Vishal Singh Rawat
4th Rithu .R
2179
ISSN: 2347-1697
International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research (IJIFR)
Volume - 3, Issue -6, February 2016
Continuous 30th Edition, Page No.:2178-2198
Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
1. INTRODUCTION
The road network is an important component of the transportation system. In Port Blair,
it is the principle means of transportation facilitating the socio-economic activities of the
people. Two-lane road (single carriageway) with restricted right of way formed the main
component of this system. The width of carriageway varies from one road to other with
undulating terrain conditions and frequent intersection. Traffic flow represents the
interaction between vehicles, drivers and infrastructure thereby the perception of road
user about the facility decides the Level of Service. As 80% of the population are
government servants, therefore land use pattern mostly evolved for basic amenities for
the residential settlement. This had resulted the expansion of town in a haphazard
manner. The increase in the vehicular traffic in past one decade has deteriorated the flow
pattern resulting economic and environmental loss for the population, in terms of vehicle
operation and noise level in surroundings. This situation lead to reduction of Level of
Service and with restricted scope of expansion of facilities, it envisages the need for
carrying out a study on Traffic flow parameters for Arterial and Downtown roads of Port
Blair. The study revealed the prevailing LOS for the facility and how it differently varies
with the LOS assigned for standard urban roads by norms and standards both by Indian
Road Congress (IRC) and HCM. Therefore the need to introduce mass transport system
was analysed by evaluating the resulting reduction in density of traffic.
2. OBJECTIVES DERIVED FOR STUDY
Based on the review of the existing literature and emerging issues of road traffic in
national and international perspective, the traffic conditions in the capital town of Port
Blair required detailed investigation with respect to the stagnant right of way. In the
absence of any industry and related commercial activities the road traffic requirements
are entirely different from mainland roads. In view of the evident increase in vehicular
population, the present study was been mainly objected on analysing Level of Service
(LOS) for Terrain conditions for major roads of Port Blair and determining the impact
of Mass transportation.
Therefore the objectives derived for the study were to
i.) Determining the gradient of major roads of Port Blair.
ii.) Carrying Out Road User Satisfaction Survey and accordingly defining Level
of Service
iii.) Identifying major points contributing density to traffic stream
iv.) Forecasting Traffic as per the present trend
v.) Finding out the influence of Mass Transportation on LOS and forecasting the
traffic parameters using statistical methods.
3. METHODOLOGIES ADOPTED
Port Blair town being the capital of Andaman and Nicobar islands has maximum
commercial activities, in terms of developmental programs, which has resulted in drastic
increase in vehicular population in past few years, especially after the disaster of
2180
ISSN: 2347-1697
International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research (IJIFR)
Volume - 3, Issue -6, February 2016
Continuous 30th Edition, Page No.:2178-2198
Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
15.8
163.9
246.3
6.6 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Morning hours
18.5
132.1
187.6
13.8 0
20406080
100120140160180200
Evening hours
Tsunami which hit the island in December 2004. Geographically isolated and
strategically important for India, these islands not only has rich historical background
but also has become a well-known place in international tourist map. This has resulted in
migration of population and boost to tourism industry which added to the vehicular
population and resulted in traffic congestion. Thus the overloaded arterial roads and
down-town roads which feed about 90% of the town traffic gave following scope for
study.
i.) Traffic volume analysis for eight roads contributing to maximum amount of traffic
flow viz; VIP road, VKV road, Bengali Club road, Middle Point road, Phoenix
Bay road, CID road, Delanipur road and Junglighat road. ii.) Measurement of Spot speed during peak and off peak hours
iii.) User perception survey for defining Level of Service iv.) Traffic forecasting v.) Identifying the roads having major traffic due to presence of schools
vi.) Impact of mass transportation in reduction of flow density
4. FINDINGS FROM STUDY
4 .1 Analysis of Peak Traffic Volume
The rolling terrain and the frequent intersection classify most of the eight selected roads
into downtown roads. The terrain and the grade separated intersection have its effect on
LOS. The haphazard settlement and residential pockets had created alignment in an
unplanned manner which is connected for the abutting structures creating extremely
narrow conditions for maintaining design speed. The Traffic Volume survey data
observed for the peak hours is shown in following graphs (Fig 4.1 to 4.8)
Fig 4.1 Traffic flow in peak hours at VKV road
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ISSN: 2347-1697
International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research (IJIFR)
Volume - 3, Issue -6, February 2016
Continuous 30th Edition, Page No.:2178-2198
Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
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ISSN: 2347-1697
International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research (IJIFR)
Volume - 3, Issue -6, February 2016
Continuous 30th Edition, Page No.:2178-2198
Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
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ISSN: 2347-1697
International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research (IJIFR)
Volume - 3, Issue -6, February 2016
Continuous 30th Edition, Page No.:2178-2198
Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
0
10
20
30
40
50
SPEED (Km/hr)
car omni scooter scooter car
truck bus car bus car
bus scooter scooter bus motar cycle
4.2 Analysis of Speed Data
The Spot Speed survey was carried out for all the selected roads to find out the
maximum speed attained by the vehicles in the stream. The earlier surveys had observed
a theoretical free flow speed ranging from 51 to 55 kmph for all the roads under study.
The undivided carriageway with a width ranging from 10 m to 14.5 m varying
throughout its length gives stringent spacing for vehicular movement. The lane width
restricts four wheelers to move in stream flow speed whereas the two wheelers take the
freedom to vary in between the spacing available in the stretch. The overall stream speed
remains well below 45 Kmph during peak hours which will deteriorate with vehicular
population in near future. Therefore all these main roads envisage for alternate routes for
one way traffic movement which will enhance the traffic flow during peak hours. The
observed spot speed during peak hours for different roads is given below in figures 4.9
to 4.16
Fig 4.9 Spot Speed of Vehicle in VKV Road
2184
ISSN: 2347-1697
International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research (IJIFR)
Volume - 3, Issue -6, February 2016
Continuous 30th Edition, Page No.:2178-2198
Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
30 33
35
28
36 38
36 33
30
41
31
39
34 34 36
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
SPEED (Km/hr)
motor cycle
motor cycle
motor cycle
auto
auto
motor cycle
auto
car
Fig 4.10 Spot Speed of Vehicle in VIP Road
Fig 4.11 Spot Speed of Vehicle in Pheonix Bay Road
Fig 4.12 Spot Speed of Vehicle in Modal School Road
0
20
40
60
SPEED (Km/hr)
auto auto motor cycle motor cycle
car car auto motor cycle
car car truck car
motor cycle car bus
0
20
40
60
SPEED (Km/hr)
auto auto motor cycle motor cycle
car car auto motor cycle
car car truck car
motor cycle car bus
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ISSN: 2347-1697
International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research (IJIFR)
Volume - 3, Issue -6, February 2016
Continuous 30th Edition, Page No.:2178-2198
Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
Fig 4.13 Spot Speed of Vehicle in Middle Point Road
Fig 4.14 Spot Speed of Vehicle in Bengali Club Road
Fig 4.15 Spot Speed of Vehicle in Delanipur Road
18 24
34 34 32 37
54
38 42
38
28
55
36
49 44
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Speed (Km/hr)
37
61
52 48
42
50 45
39
52
42 46
42 44 50
40
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Speed (Km/hr)
motor cycle
car
truck
motor cycle
motor cycle
car
bus
motor cycle
motor cycle
31
46
31 31
21
32 31
23
31
38 37 31
49
36 30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Speed (Km/hr)
auto
motor cycle
motor cycle
motor cycle
truck
auto
auto
bus
motor cycle
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ISSN: 2347-1697
International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research (IJIFR)
Volume - 3, Issue -6, February 2016
Continuous 30th Edition, Page No.:2178-2198
Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
Fig 4.16 Spot Speed of Vehicle in Junglighat Road
4.3 User Perception Survey
In order to understand the perception, experience and expectations of different
types/groups of respondents a user satisfaction survey was conducted in the initial phase
of the project. The target respondents were drivers of different kind of vehicles. The
survey was conducted for the selected eight stretches using a questionnaire using a 5-
point scale (5 = "Highly Satisfied" to 0 = "Highly Dissatisfied") This quantitative study
using face-to-face mode helped in arriving at the overall satisfaction level figures with
respect to road infrastructure, safety and comfort levels of road users. In the
questionnaire respondents were asked to rate their satisfaction with parameters on the
following6 attributes viz.
i. Speed achieved
a. Speed range the user drives
ii. Travel time
a. Level of congestion
b. Delay due to road works
c. Delay due to police/ RTO checking
d. Impact on vehicle maintenance cost
e. Impact on fuel consumption
f. Impact on travel time
iii. Riding comfort
a. Improvement in road condition
b. Overall comfort levels
c. Smoothness and appearance of road surface
d. Road cleanliness
iv. Sight distance
a. visibility during manoeuvring
b. clarity in road curves
0102030405060
Speed (Km/hr)
car bus auto bus
car motor cycle motor cycle auto
motor cycle car motor cycle auto
motor cycle motor cycle car
2187
ISSN: 2347-1697
International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research (IJIFR)
Volume - 3, Issue -6, February 2016
Continuous 30th Edition, Page No.:2178-2198
Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
v. Safety
a. Overall safety perception
b. Availability of Police assistance
c. Design of road bends
d. Dedicated lanes for pedestrians/ cyclists
e. Speed breakers
vi. Overall rating
Considering all the above parameters
a.Speed achieved
b.Travel time
c.Riding comfort
d. Sight distance
e. Safety
List Of Target Respondents
Drivers/ staffs on vehicle/ passengers/ owners of –
Motorized two wheelers
3Wheelers /Auto Rickshaw
Car /Jeep /Van /Taxi/SUVs/MUVs
Bus drivers/support staffs (Regular bus & mini bus)
Figure 4.17 Carrying out User Satisfaction Questionnaire survey to road users
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ISSN: 2347-1697
International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research (IJIFR)
Volume - 3, Issue -6, February 2016
Continuous 30th Edition, Page No.:2178-2198
Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
6%
38% 32%
19%
5% SPEED ACHIEVED IN
DRIVING
10 TO 20
kmph
0%
15%
29% 29%
27%
TRAVEL TIME
VERY GOOD
(5)
6% 16%
45% 16%
17%
RIDING COMFORT
VERY
GOOD (5) 13%
32% 42%
13% 0%
SIGHT DISTANCE
CLEARANCE
VERY GOOD
(5)
16%
16%
32%
32%
4% SAFETY
VERY GOOD
(5)
GOOD (4)
9% 22%
38%
19% 12%
OVERALL RATING OF
THE ROAD
VERY GOOD
(5)
0% 19%
38% 28%
15%
SPEED ACHIEVED IN
DRIVING 10 TO
20
kmph
38%
28%
23%
11% 0%
RIDING COMFORT
VERY GOOD
(5)
GOOD (4)
27%
25% 28%
17%
3% SIGHT DISTANCE
CLEARANCE
VERY GOOD
(5)
33%
38%
27%
0%
2%
TRAVEL TIME
VERY GOOD
(5)
GOOD (4)
29%
30% 19%
17%
5% SAFETY
VERY GOOD
(5)
GOOD (4)
36%
42%
19%
3%
0%
OVERALL RATING OF
THE ROAD
VERY GOOD
(5)
Figure 4.18 User perception of VKV road
Figure 4.19 User perception of VIP road
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ISSN: 2347-1697
International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research (IJIFR)
Volume - 3, Issue -6, February 2016
Continuous 30th Edition, Page No.:2178-2198
Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
Figure 4.20 User perception of Junglighatr road
Figure 4.21: User perception of Delanipur road
8%
48% 32%
8% 4%
SPEED ACHIEVED IN
DRIVING
10 TO 20
kmph
4% 11%
25% 59%
1%
TRAVEL TIME
VERY GOOD
(5)
GOOD (4)
4% 24%
64%
8% 0%
RIDING COMFORT
VERY GOOD
(5)
GOOD (4)
12%
24%
44%
4%
16%
SIGHT DISTANCE
CLEARANCE VERY GOOD
(5)
GOOD (4)
8%
32% 40%
12% 8%
SAFETY
VERY GOOD
(5)
GOOD (4)
0% 20%
64%
12% 4%
OVERALL RATING OF
THE ROAD VERY GOOD
(5)
GOOD (4)
0%
54% 41%
3% 2%
SPEED ACHIEVED IN
DRIVING
10 TO 20
kmph
7% 21%
38%
25%
9%
TRAVEL TIME
VERY GOOD
(5)
5% 27%
44%
16%
8% RIDING COMFORT
VERY GOOD
(5)
GOOD (4)30%
29% 23%
14%
4%
SIGHT DISTANCE
CLEARANCE
VERY GOOD
(5)
9%
17%
28% 34%
12%
SAFETY
VERY GOOD
(5)
3% 26%
60%
7%
4%
OVERALL RATING OF
THE ROAD
VERY GOOD
(5)
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ISSN: 2347-1697
International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research (IJIFR)
Volume - 3, Issue -6, February 2016
Continuous 30th Edition, Page No.:2178-2198
Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
Figure 4.22 User perception of Bengali Club road
5. COMPARISION OF LOS
5.1 Existing LOS for Major Roads of Port Blair as Highway Capacity Manual (HCM)
According the operating conditions HCM has classified level of service into six levels,
starting from level of service A to level of service F. The level of service of major roads
of Port Blair for speed according to the HCM was found to be as given in Table 5.1
Table 5.1 LOS for major roads of Port Blair, as per Highway Capacity Manual (HCM)
S.N Name of The
Stretch
Speed Limit As Per
HCM Type Of Road
LOS (As Per
Speed)
1 Middle Point Stretch 30 KPH Down-town
Road B
2 VKV Stretch 30 KPH Down-town
Road B
3 Junglighat Stretch 30 KPH Down-town
Road B
4 VIP Stretch 40 KPH Arterial Road B
5 Light House Stretch 40 KPH Down-town
Road A
6 Model School
Stretch 30 KPH
Down-town
Road B
7 Delanipur Stretch 30 KPH Down-town
Road B
8 Phoenix bay Stretch 40 KPH Arterial Road B
0%
54% 41%
3% 2%
SPEED ACHIEVED IN …
10 TO 20
kmph
7% 21%
38%
25%
9%
TRAVEL TIME
VERY GOOD
(5)
GOOD (4)
5% 27%
44%
16%
8% RIDING COMFORT
VERY GOOD
(5)
GOOD (4)
30%
29% 23%
14%
4% SIGHT DISTANCE …
VERY GOOD
(5)
GOOD (4)
9%
17%
28%
34%
12%
SAFETY
VERY GOOD
(5)
GOOD (4)
3% 26%
60%
7% 4%
OVERALL RATING OF …
VERY GOOD
(5)
GOOD (4)
2191
ISSN: 2347-1697
International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research (IJIFR)
Volume - 3, Issue -6, February 2016
Continuous 30th Edition, Page No.:2178-2198
Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
The LOS of all the roads was found to be “B” except Light House Stretch, which was
found to be “A” for operating condition according to the HCM. It indicates that all the
seven roads with LOS B gives stable flow with an average over all speed drop down to
40 K.P.H.
5.2 Assessment of LOS as per User Perception Survey
The survey was conducted for the selected stretches using a questionnaire using a 5-
point scale (5 = "Highly Satisfied" to 0 = "Highly Dissatisfied") This quantitative study
using face-to-face mode helped in arriving at the overall satisfaction level figures with
respect to road infrastructure, safety and comfort levels of road users.
According the user perception level of service has been classified into six levels, starting
from level of service A with a point of 5 in the scale to level of service F with a point of
0 in the scale. The LOS for all the selected roads according to the user perception is
given in Table 5.2
Table 5.2 LOS for the roads according to the User Perception
6.SCOPE OF MASS TRANSPORTATION TO REDUCE THE VOLUME AND
IMPROVING LOS
To improve the quality of travel and to safeguard the environment it is required
to promote mass transportation and discourage the private transport rider ship. The route
with maximum demand for Mass Transport are those which have schools nearby them
as the volume terminating from these schools contribute hugely to the overall volume of
the roads causing congestion during morning and evening peak hours. The selected eight
stretches which were considered for the above study consist of 12 schools. A volume
survey was conducted to determine the no. of vehicles which only come to drop or pick
the students and the school staff during morning peak hour (7:00 -8:00 am) and evening
peak hour (1:15-2:15 pm).
A survey to determine the total volume of all the roads was also conducted. The
volume terminating from the schools was deducted from the total volume which shows
that, with the introduction of an appropriate mass transportation facility the volume of
the roads can be reduced. The deduction was done with an assumption that all the
students and the staff are using the mass transport facility.
S.N Name Of The Stretch User Perception Type Of Road LOS
1 Middle Point Stretch Average Down-town Road C
2 VKV Stretch Average Down-town Road C
3 Junglighat Stretch Average Down-town Road C
4 VIP Stretch Good Arterial Road B
5 Bengali Club Stretch Average Down-town Road C
6 Model School Stretch Average Down-town Road C
7 Delanipur Stretch Average Down-town Road C
8 Phoenix bay Stretch Average Arterial Road C
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ISSN: 2347-1697
International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research (IJIFR)
Volume - 3, Issue -6, February 2016
Continuous 30th Edition, Page No.:2178-2198
Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
14
49
.6
23
32
.1
15
74
.5
98
4.2
21
66
.2
16
38
.5
17
77
.8
66
0.5
70
7.9
19
80
.1
14
03
.2
86
2.3
15
37
.9
14
50
.6
10
93
58
0.4
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Middle
Point
Stretch
VKV Stretch Junglighat
Stretch
VIP Stretch Light House
Stretch
Model
School
Stretch
Delanipur
Stretch
Phoenix
bay Stretch
EVENING PEAK
REGULAR VOLUME OF THE ROADS REDUCTION IN VOLUME
63
.01
7
19
.42
5
14
.42
13
.24
8
29
.55
6
16
.81
7 4
8.3
85
12
.11
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
MiddlePoint
Stretch
VKVStretch
JunglighatStretch
VIPStretch
LightHouseStretch
ModelSchoolStretch
DelanipurStretch
Phoenixbay
Stretch
Figure 6.1: Reduction of the total volume by deducting the school traffic during Morning Hours
Figure 6.2: Reduction of the total volume by deducting the school traffic during Evening Hours
Figure 6.3: Percentage Reduction in the total volume of all the roads during Morning peak
15
57
.2
22
27
16
12
.3
13
22
.4
23
44
.3
15
05
18
05
.1
82
8
57
5.9
17
94
.4
13
79
.8
11
47
.2
16
51
.4
12
51
.9
93
1.7
72
7.7
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Middle
Point
Stretch
VKV
Stretch
Junglighat
Stretch
VIP Stretch Light
House
Stretch
Model
School
Stretch
Delanipur
Stretch
Phoenix
bay Stretch
MORNING PEAK
REGULAR VOLUME OF THE ROADS REDUCTION IN VOLUME
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ISSN: 2347-1697
International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research (IJIFR)
Volume - 3, Issue -6, February 2016
Continuous 30th Edition, Page No.:2178-2198
Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
51
.16
5
15
.09
3
10
.87
9
12
.38
5
29
.00
4
11
.46
7
38
.51
9
12
.12
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MiddlePoint
Stretch
VKVStretch
JunglighatStretch
VIPStretch
LightHouseStretch
ModelSchoolStretch
DelanipurStretch
Phoenixbay
Stretch
% REDUCTION IN VOLUME
Figure 6.4: Percentage Reduction in the total volume of all the roads during Evening peak
7. FORECASTING OF VEHICULAR POPULATION
7.1 Need of Traffic Forecasting
Investment in transport sector constitutes a significant part of the total investment. This
is especially true in the case of developing nation, where transport is the catalyst for all
round development and is one of the basic infrastructures. When the capital available is
scarce and as competing demands, the investment in the transport project have to be
planned carefully keeping the view not only the present demand but also the
requirements for a responsible period in future. This underlines the need for estimating
the need for estimating the future traffic accurately, whether the plan should be for
construction of a new facility or the improvement of existing facilities. To a great extent,
the accurate estimate of future traffic will influence the engineering design of the facility
and the economic decision whether to take up the project or not.
7.2 Forecasting based of past trends
The simplest method of forecasting is to analyze the past data for a number of year and
to extrapolate the past trends assuming that the conditions will continue to change in the
future at the same rate as in the past. Obviously such a simplification suffers from many
disadvantages, although it is relatively easy and cheap, it is good enough in a stable
environment, which is beyond the influence of any major change in production,
population and so on. The analyst has to carefully study the past data and lookout for
any indicators that are likely to influence the future patterns.
Based on previous data of traffic population the trend line was obtained with projection
till the year 2025 and the Polynomial relation was also established with R2 equal to 0.98
which is an optimistic relation giving scope to assess the future trend of traffic growth in
Port Blair Roads.
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ISSN: 2347-1697
International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research (IJIFR)
Volume - 3, Issue -6, February 2016
Continuous 30th Edition, Page No.:2178-2198
Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
y = 609.78x - 1E+06 R² = 0.9863
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
traffic growth
Figure 7.1 Graph showing Future traffic population based on past trends
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) influences the growth of all sector, therefore the
vehicular population was linked with the same which is shown in Figure 7.2. The Blue
series refers to traffic and red ones refer to GDP trend for future.
Figure 7.2 Graph showing Future traffic population and GDP
y = 657.89x - 1E+06 R² = 0.9876
y = 128.86x - 257625
R² = 0.9712
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
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Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
Thereafter the relation was obtained, as shown in Figure 7.3, comparing the traffic with
GDP which revealed a R2 value of 0.94 which is giving a very accurate relation for
forecasting with present trend and growth .
Figure 7.3 Graph showing Future traffic population based on GDP
8 Conclusion
The LOS- “B” obtained for Middle Point, VKV, Junglighat, VIP and Model School
Stretch reveals that these roads are providing a good facility for the road user. Flow is
stable and the user may experience an unreasonable delay with an average speed of 30
Kmph. LOS C for Light House, Delanipur, Phoenix bay Stretch reveals that these roads
provide an average facility for the road user. Flow is stable and the user may experience
an acceptable delay with an average speed of 25kmph. Introduction of appropriate mass
transport facility will reduce the school traffic volume up to 63% in Morning peak and
51% in Evening peak. Thus congestion during peak hours can be relieved. This will
enhance Level of service further and also there will be a considerable reduction in the
pollution level. Traffic Forecasting of vehicular traffic will help in planning a new
facility and also improve the existing facility. Study of future traffic trends can be made
possible with the forecasting of future traffic.
8.1 Recommendations
The enforcement of traffic regulation required to be substantiated with relevant filed
data. Promotion of mass transport ridership in port Blair and environs is to be given
Prime importance. At present bus transport is the only mass transport facility in
operation. Model can be built for mode choice and to estimate the probable users of
mass transportation. An appropriate mass transportation facility to be introduced in the
schools whose traffic majorly contribute to the volume of major roads of the city
8.2 Acknowledgement
The authors are grateful to Civil Engineering Department and Dr. B.R. Ambedkar
Institute of Technology, Port Blair, Andaman &Nicobar Islands (A&N Islands), India
y = 2E-06x2 + 0.1547x + 227.84 R² = 0.9404
GD
P (
in m
illi
on
s o
f U
S d
oll
ars)
Traffic Population
GDP vs TRAFFIC POPULATION
GDP (in millions of US dollars
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Volume - 3, Issue -6, February 2016
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Surendran Raji, A.Arun Kumar, Vishal Singh Rawat, Rithu .R:: Traffic Analysis For Major Roads Of Port Blair And Impact Of Mass Transportation
for having helped and guided us to conduct the survey for all the selected roads
considered for the study and research. We are also thankful to the Traffic Police
Division of Police Department A&N Administration in helping us and providing all
support with the Traffic survey during peak and off peak hours.
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10. BIOGRAPHIES
Corresponding author is a Civil Engineer and has done her Post
graduation (M.E.) in construction Management & Technology. She
is born and brought up in Andaman Islands and did her graduation
from Gujarat University in the year 1993 and her Post graduation
from NITTTR, Chandigarh with Punjab University. She is been in
teaching profession for last 22 years and has been actively guiding
both Diploma & Degree (B.Tech) students of Civil Engineering
Department of BRAIT, in their Major Projects Her field of interest
is Traffic Engineering. The other three authors are her students.