© OECD/IEA, 2008

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

APEC EWG36

Manila, Philippines3-4 December 2008

Carrie Pottinger

R&D Analysis and Coordination

Office of Global Energy Dialogue

© OECD/IEA, 2008

IEA overview

Existing IEA-APEC Co-operation

Activities of interest to APEC EWG and Expert Groups

Founded in 1974

as an autonomous agency of the OECD

28 Member countries

Asia Pacific: Japan, South Korea, Australia & New Zealand

North America: USA, Canada

Europe: Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Luxembourg, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Netherland, Norway, Poland, Slovak Republic, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK

Decision-making

Governing Board consisted of by member countries’ representatives

Under the GB, several committees are focusing on each area

Secretariat

Under the ageis of the Executive Director, less than 200 on staff

© OECD/IEA, 2008

IEA

SHARED GOALS

Diversity, efficiency and flexibility in the energy sector

Prompt, flexible (and, when needed, collective) response to energy emergencies

Environmentally sustainable provision and use of energy

Development of alternative energy sources

Improved energy efficiency

Continued research, development and market deployment of new and improved energy technologies

Undistorted energy prices

Free and open trade and a secure framework for investment

Co-operation among all energy market participants

Energy Security

Economic Development

Environmental Protection

© OECD/IEA, 2008

© OECD/IEA, 2008

IEA COMMITTEES

Standing

Group on

Emergency

Questions

(SEQ)

Standing

Group on the

Oil Market

(SOM)

Standing

Group on

Long-Term Co-

operation

(SLT)

Committee on

Energy

Research and

Technology

(CERT)

Standing

Group on

Global Energy

Dialogue

(SGD)

Governing

Board

© OECD/IEA, 2008

IEA SECRETARIAT

Energy

Statistics

Building

Services

Personnel &

Finance

Information

Systems

Economic

Analysis

Sustainable Energy

Policy and Technology

Energy

Technology

Policy

Energy

Efficiency &

Environment

Executive Director

Nobuo Tanaka

Deputy Executive Director

Amb. Richard Jones

Energy Markets and Security

Energy

Diversification

Oil Industry

and Markets

Emergency

Planning and

Preparations

Global Energy Dialogue

Country

Studies

Asia-Pacific,

Latin America

& sub-Saharan

Africa

Europe,

Middle East &

North Africa

Energy

Technology

Collaboration

Communi-

cations

&

Information

Legal

Counsel

© OECD/IEA, 2008

OIL SECURITY

Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans,

Aug.-Sep. 2005

© OECD/IEA, 2008

OIL MARKETS

Monitoring markets and make

information available globally…

If global disruption,

we take action

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Thousand B

arr

els

per

Day

  2004   2005   2006

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Visibly effective…

U.S. Finished Petroleum Products Imports

(Thousand Barrels per Day)

© OECD/IEA, 2008

POLICY ANALYSIS

Long-Term

Gas ElectricityCoal

Country Studies

© OECD/IEA, 2008

Energy efficiency Climate change

© OECD/IEA, 2008

TECHNOLOGY

Scenarios

Assessments and potentials

Technical briefs

Roadmaps

Roadmaps

RDD&D mapping - finding RDD&D gaps and opportunities for

international collaborations

Roadmap projects – Create international consensus on RDD&D

transition

Supply side

CCS power generation

Coal – IGCC

Coal – USCSC

Nuclear III + IV

Solar – PV

Solar – CSP

Wind

Biomass – IGCC & co-combustion

2nd generation biofuels

Demand side

Energy efficiency in buildings

Energy efficient motor systems

Efficient ICEs

Heat pumps

Plug-ins and electric vehicles

Fuel cell vehicles

Industrial CCS

Solar heating

GLOBAL ENERGY R&DImplementing Agreements enable all countries to work together

© OECD/IEA, 2008

© OECD/IEA, 2008

www.iea.org

End-Use Fusion Renewable Working

Working Power Energy Party

Party Co-ordinating Working Fossil

Committee Party Fuels

INTERNATIONAL TECHNOLOGY COLLABORATION

(IMPLEMENTING AGREEMENTS)

IEA GOVERNING BOARD

COMMITTEE ON ENERGY RESEARCH

AND TECHNOLOGY (CERT) Ad Hoc Group

R&D Priority

Setting

Ad Hoc Group

Science &

Energy

Technologies

STATISTICS

Energy Statistics and

Balances

Supply, Demand, Trade by

Energy Source

Price/Tax

Emissions

© OECD/IEA, 2008

Production

Import

Export

International Marine Bunkers

Stock Changes

Domestic Supply

Transfers

Statistical Differences

Transformation Sector (18 sub-sectors)

Energy Sector (16 sub-sectors)

Distribution Losses

Final Consumption

Industry Sector (13 sub-sectors)

Transport (7 sub-sectors)

Other Sectors (4 sub-sectors)

Non Energy Uses

Electricity and Heat Outputs

Transparency is Key

© OECD/IEA, 2008

© OECD/IEA, 2008

China, India, and Russia top priority countries

Ongoing co-operation with

– Southeast Asia

– Central Asia, transit countries

– Middle East

– Latin America

– Sub-Saharan Africa

GLOBAL DIALOGUE

© OECD/IEA, 2008

IEA overview

Existing IEA-APEC Co-operation

Activities of interest to APEC EWG

© OECD/IEA, 2007

Energy (oil) security

Energy statistics

Analysis (scenarios, indicators)

Policy (supply, efficiency,

environment)

Technology cooperation

IEA co-operation with China- ever growing since 1990s -

Know-how transfer, information sharing,

simulation exercise

Training for capacity building

World energy outlook, modeling and

indicators technical cooperation

Sectoral studies on gas, coal and

electricity, efficiency policy formulation

Increasing participation in IEA‟s

technology networks

© OECD/IEA, 2007

Oil security

Southeast Asia

1. „Oil Security & Emergency Preparedness‟, 2003-04

. 2 policy and technical workshops

. Inspections of Fr./Neth./Ger. oil emergency facilities

. ‘Emergency Response Exercise 3’ (ERE3)

Outcomes:

. sharing of experiences and information

. joint interest in longer term program.

2. „Oil Security and Emergency Preparedness‟, 2006-08

. Builds on work to date, and integrates Ch./Ind./ASEAN

. 3 workshops: best practice for strategic stocks

. 3 Oil Statistics training courses

. ‘Oil Supply Security 2007’ pubn; chpts on Ch./Ind./ASEAN

. ‘Emergency Response Exercise 4’ (ERE4), June 2008

Outcomes:

. sharing of experiences and information

. close network and harmonising in crisis

. Thai MoEN joined IEA crisis information network

- ASCOPE, Indonesia & Philippines discussions

. planning next program.

© OECD/IEA, 2007

Policy (regulation,

cross-border trade,

diversification)

Southeast Asia

1. „Regulators & Regulatory Frameworks for ASEAN

Electricity & Gas Reform‟, 2003-04

. Policy and technical workshop

. Study tour of industry & regulators: Paris, Brussels &

London

. Framework for ASEAN Forum for Energy Regulators

Outcomes:

. sharing of regulatory experiences and information

. proposal for ASEAN Forum for Energy Regulators.

2. HAPUA and ACE initiated „ASEAN Regulators Forum’,

Nov. 2007

. First meeting Feb. 2008

. Focus initially on electricity regulators

. IEA requested to place a advisory role.

© OECD/IEA, 2007

Indonesia Energy Policy Review

. Partnership with MEMR.

. Objective transparent review by „peers‟

- international policy practice

- a „third voice‟ supporting MEMR policy-makers

- a base for future IEA-MEMR collaboration.

. Same approach used for IEA In-Depth Reviews

- NMCs: Russia, China, India, Ukraine & Angola.

. Building practical collaboration now

- MEMR-IEA oil statisticians training

- MEMR-IEA coal statisticians training

- D-G Oil & Gas presented to IEA Gov. Board

- PT Berau CEO on IEA Coal Industry Advisory

Board

- MEMR Team to IEA for program discussions.

© OECD/IEA, 2007

Indonesia Energy Policy Review

Methodology

Objective and open review by peers

14 person team, incl. additional experts, e.g., ‘Gov. structure &

process’, ‘Trade & Investment’, ‘Rural electricity’

Internationally supported: all volunteers, from 10 countries.

In-country meetings in July 2007

45 Gov. Ministries and Agencies, industry, and industry

associations, etc

Good discussions and

could have met more

Plenary with

Minister and DGs.

© OECD/IEA, 2008

Indonesia EPR: Key messages

Establish clear lines of authority and strengthen communication, co-ordination and implementation

National Energy Council.

Enhance capacity and authority of MEMR on policy & implementation

high level policy analysis and monitoring function.

Establish cost reflective pricing and subsidy removal timetable

across all sectors

with community communication plan.

Ensure investment regimes consistent, coherent, transparent and streamlined

improve communication and consultation with investment community.

Complete separation of policy, regulation and operation

establish electricity regulator and independence and authority of existing regulators.

© OECD/IEA, 2008

Energy Statistics

IEA co-operation with SE Asia- based on practical collaboration

1. „ASEAN Energy Statistics & Data Management‟

Training, 2005-06

. Two 10-day courses for SE Asian statisticians

- transparency & harmonisation of data

- close exchange between IEA & ASEAN

statisticians, and improved data flow.

2.a. „ASEAN Oil Emergency Preparedness and

Statistics‟ Training, Feb. 2008

2.b. „Indonesia Coal Statistics‟ Training, Feb. 2008

. Two 4-day courses for SE Asian and Indonesian

statisticians

- transparency & harmonisation of data

- use of data for oil supply disruption amelioration

- improved coal production and trade data.

21 international/regional organisations

Both data providers and users

Harmonisation of definitions

Common training sessions

A joint website

Strengthening harmonisation and

co-operation2nd InterEnerStat Workshop

19-20 Nov. 2007, IEA, Paris

© OECD/IEA, 2008

1st Working Meeting on Preparation of Detailed Energy

Consumption Data for Responding to the Need for Energy

Efficiency Indicators

APEC Workshop on Preparation of Detailed Energy

Consumption Data for Responding to the Need for the Energy

Efficiency

Philippines very active, currently developing an important

industrial survey to help disaggregate the industrial sector

Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, activities also include

development of the energy balance and relevant survey to fill

the gaps

Energy Indicators

© OECD/IEA, 2008

© OECD/IEA, 2008

IEA overview

Existing IEA-APEC Co-operation

Activities of interest to APEC EWG and Expert Groups

TRANSPORT

Scenarios:Transport features prominently E.g., 70%+ of investment needs are in transport sector

Transport fuel savings and shifts in ACT and BLUE radically

alter the future of oil

Many questions not fully answered

Need a better understanding of electrification potentials,

impacts

Better understanding of efficiency potential for non-LDV modes

Better understanding of transport price responsiveness around

the world

More detailed cost curves, identification of more low cost

measures

Global Fuel Economy Initiative IEA is developing the concept with ITF, FIA Foundation,

UNEP; should be multi-stakeholder

Focused on improving new car and truck fuel economy around the world

May 15/16 – agencies held a workshop to explore role and priority activities for such an initiative; we received strong support from attendees to move forward.

Aviation, Marine Transport Initiatives MoMo-style initiatives, working with industry partners

Biofuels Project Cooperative effort with UNEP/FAO to create new

characterizations of biofuels pathways and environmental impacts, then create new MoMo supply curves and scenario projections

Tentative title: Transport, Energy and CO2: A

Way Forward

Greater detail, expand on key themes

More detailed road maps (cooperate with transport

IAs)

Greater policy detail (in cooperation with LTO)

More travel-related analysis

Draft by October 2008, book release in early

2009

Renewable Energy Policies and Measures

Integration of Renewables into the Electricity

Grid

Renewables for Heating and Cooling

1st to 2nd Generation Biofuels

RENEWABLE ENERGY

Policy Database

http://renewables.iea.org

http://renewables.iea.org

Deploying Renewables:

Principles for Effective Policies

Launched on 29 September in Berlin

Contactsamantha.olz@iea.org

Download Executive Summary at http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/DeployRenew2008SUM.pdf

1. Remove non-economic barriers to improve market functioning

2. Establish predictable support framework - to attract investments

3. Set up transitional incentives decreasing over time– to foster and monitor technological innovation and move towards market competitiveness

4. Ensure specific support in function of technology maturity to exploit potential of large RET range

5. With increasing mass-scale RET penetration impact on overall energy system must be taken into account

Continuity

Certainty

Key Principles

Effective Renewable Energy Policies

Technical potentials for the individual renewable energy sources

Generation costs for the different renewable energy technologies

Renewable energy market trends

Renewable energy policies

Next steps – build up regions

Asia: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,

Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam

Project Timeline: 2009-2010

Integrating Renewables into

Electricity Grids

Phase 1 Report delivered for Japanese G8 Summit in July 2008

New phase 2009 – 2010

Download at http://www.iea.org/G8/index.asp

Contacthugo.chandler@iea.org

Variable renewables share (wind, PV, wave, tidal) depends on power system & market flexibility

Flexibility resource is made up of: dispatchable generation, interconnection and storage

Flexibility already exists (necessary to cover forecast error, contingencies, demand variability), and can enable a share of variable electricity without new capacity measures

The extent depends how much flexibility e.g. Denmark is part of Nordic Power Market

As shares increase, more flexibility is needed

Step 1: More efficient use of existing flexibility

Step 2: Additional flexible capacity (and not just generation)

“Phase 1” Market measures to optimise flexibility

Larger / International markets: to smooth variability, and for shared use of cheapest resources for balancing

Hour-ahead and intra-hour trading (as well as day-ahead): for smaller forecast errors

Demand side response – changing the shape of demand to better fit with supply

Transmission optimisation measures

Sharing transmission capacity, where feasible

Optimal use of cross-border capacity

Uptake of latest transmission technologies

Operational measures

to increase power

system flexibility

=

More var-RE for

comparable level of

system impact

Bioenergy

1. From 1st to 2nd Generation Biofuels - An overview of current industry and RD&D activities

1. Report in collaboration with IA Bioenergy

2. Review of Life Cycle Assessment Studies on Biofuels

1. With UNEP and EEA

2. Input to OECD report on Economic Assessment of BiofuelsSupport Policies

1. Good practice guidelines for Bioenergy Project Development and Biomass Supply

From 1st to 2nd Generation Biofuels

An Overview of current industry and RD&D activities

In collaboration with Bioenergy Implementing Agreement

With the financial support of the Italian Ministry for the

Environment, Land and Sea

IEA contribution to GBEP

In collaboration with other international organisations

OECD, UNCTAD, UNEP, FAO and others

Duration: October 2007 – August 2008

Current EffortsFigure 36. Project investments and locations of major biofuel plant USDOE investments in the US.

Key Messages

First commercial plants unlikely before 2012-15

No large contribution of 2nd gen biofuels before 2030

Current estimated costs

0.80 – 1.00 USD/l gasoline equivalent for ethanol

>1.00 USD/lge for biodiesel

High-risk investments, need for government support

Long-term cost reductions down to USD 0.55-0.70 USD/lge

possible (easier for bio-chemical route)

Key requirements

Continued government support

Part of a comprehensive strategy on bioenergy

Improved understanding of feedstock requirements and costs

Co-products and process integration

Electricity, heat, chemicals

A publication to facilitate

the deployment of

bioenergy plants aimed at

policy makers, planners

and developers.

Bioenergy Project Development &

Biomass Supply:

Good Practice Guidelines

RENEWABLES FOR

HEATING AND COOLING

Lead authors:

ZSW

ECN

SenterNovem

IEA Renewable Energy Unit

Major contributions from Implementing

Agreements:

Bioenergy

Geothermal

Solar Heating and Cooling

SolarPACES

A joint project between the Renewable Energy Technology

Deployment Implementing Agreement and the

IEA Renewable Energy Unit

Recent Renewable Publications - FREE

Energy Efficiency

International Partnership for Energy Efficient Cooperation

25 EE recommendations across 7 sectors

Renewables

Global Renewable Energy Policies and Measures

From 1st to 2nd Generation Biofuels

Integration of Renewables into Electricity Grids

Transport

Global Fuel Efficiency Initiative

MoMo

Coming soon: Transport, Energy and CO2: A Way Forward

Global energy Technology R&D Network

© OECD/IEA, 2008

Activities of Interest to APEC EWG

Thank you for your attention