international climate change agreements & baltic sea management chris hopkins aquamarine...

INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE AGREEMENTS &AGREEMENTS &

BALTIC SEA MANAGEMENTBALTIC SEA MANAGEMENT

Chris HopkinsChris HopkinsAquaMarine Advisers®, Åstorp, Sweden (AquaMarine Advisers®, Åstorp, Sweden (

[email protected]))

Presentation on 26 July 2009 atPresentation on 26 July 2009 at

Nordic Marine Academy Ph.D. Course, Bornholm:Nordic Marine Academy Ph.D. Course, Bornholm: ‘Climate Impacts on the Baltic Sea – from Science to ‘Climate Impacts on the Baltic Sea – from Science to

Policy’Policy’•35 mins presentation (incl. ca. slide 13).35 mins presentation (incl. ca. slide 13).•10 mins break.10 mins break.•35 mins presentation (ca. slide 13 to end).35 mins presentation (ca. slide 13 to end).•Q&A, literature & ‘exercise topic’ for ca. 10 min.Q&A, literature & ‘exercise topic’ for ca. 10 min.

26 July 200926 July 2009 11Chris Hopkins - Climate Change & Baltic Chris Hopkins - Climate Change & Baltic Sea ManagementSea Management

What is this presentation about?What is this presentation about? Examine the development of the ‘ecosystem approach to the management of human activities’ Examine the development of the ‘ecosystem approach to the management of human activities’

(EAM) as the overarching policy & management concept for conserving healthy & sustainable (EAM) as the overarching policy & management concept for conserving healthy & sustainable marine ecosystems, & the goods & services they provide for humanity in European Regional Seas.marine ecosystems, & the goods & services they provide for humanity in European Regional Seas.

Follow the joint origin of the EAM & the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change from 1992 Follow the joint origin of the EAM & the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change from 1992 UN Conference on Environment & Development (‘Rio Earth Summit’), & their underpinning by UN Conference on Environment & Development (‘Rio Earth Summit’), & their underpinning by Precautionary Principle & Polluter Pays Principle. With reference to European Regional Seas, & Precautionary Principle & Polluter Pays Principle. With reference to European Regional Seas, & especially Baltic Sea, the international ‘instruments’ (e.g. conventions, agreements, guidelines) especially Baltic Sea, the international ‘instruments’ (e.g. conventions, agreements, guidelines) concerning management of the coastal & offshore marine environment & its living resources are concerning management of the coastal & offshore marine environment & its living resources are summarily reviewed, & attention drawn to increasing emphasis being placed on the EAM as the summarily reviewed, & attention drawn to increasing emphasis being placed on the EAM as the guiding concept for their application.guiding concept for their application.

The 2002 North Sea Ministerial Declaration (5The 2002 North Sea Ministerial Declaration (5 thth International Conference on the Protection of the International Conference on the Protection of the North Sea) adopted & outlined, for the first time in the European Regional Seas, the general North Sea) adopted & outlined, for the first time in the European Regional Seas, the general framework necessary for developing & implementing the EAM. The EAM framework was framework necessary for developing & implementing the EAM. The EAM framework was subsequently incorporated for application in all the European Regional Seas, including the Baltic subsequently incorporated for application in all the European Regional Seas, including the Baltic Sea, & is central in elaborating & implementing the European Union’s (EU) primary marine Sea, & is central in elaborating & implementing the European Union’s (EU) primary marine management & policy instruments, management & policy instruments, i.e.i.e. the Water Framework Directive, the Marine Strategy the Water Framework Directive, the Marine Strategy Framework Directive & the integrated Maritime Policy.Framework Directive & the integrated Maritime Policy.

The main components of the EAM framework for conserving ecosystem health are examined: the The main components of the EAM framework for conserving ecosystem health are examined: the role of an overarching ‘vision’, setting of a suite of ecological quality objectives with targets & limits, role of an overarching ‘vision’, setting of a suite of ecological quality objectives with targets & limits, monitoring & integrated assessment of indicators of change, & management/regulation of human monitoring & integrated assessment of indicators of change, & management/regulation of human activities causing detrimental effects. The main international management forums for the Baltic Sea activities causing detrimental effects. The main international management forums for the Baltic Sea are outlined, are outlined, i.e.i.e. HELCOM for ‘environmental’ management, & the EU (Common Fisheries Policy) & HELCOM for ‘environmental’ management, & the EU (Common Fisheries Policy) & Russia for bilateral management of fisheries. Finally, simple, generic ways in which climate change Russia for bilateral management of fisheries. Finally, simple, generic ways in which climate change may be addressed across all relevant marine-related sectors by mitigation & adaptation are noted, may be addressed across all relevant marine-related sectors by mitigation & adaptation are noted, & the importance of ‘linking science & policy’ is emphasized for enhancing Baltic Sea management & the importance of ‘linking science & policy’ is emphasized for enhancing Baltic Sea management in a strategic, longer term perspective.in a strategic, longer term perspective.

26 July 200926 July 2009 Chris Hopkins - Climate Change & Baltic Chris Hopkins - Climate Change & Baltic Sea ManagementSea Management

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Introductory factsIntroductory facts


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1992 ‘RIO EARTH SUMMIT’: Parent of ‘ecosystem 1992 ‘RIO EARTH SUMMIT’: Parent of ‘ecosystem approach’ & climate change mitigationapproach’ & climate change mitigation

Brundtland Commission (UN) - Brundtland Commission (UN) - 1987 report ‘1987 report ‘Our Common FutureOur Common Future’: Urgency - achieve ’: Urgency - achieve sustainable economic development without depleting natural resources or harming environment.sustainable economic development without depleting natural resources or harming environment.

Brundtland defined concept of environmentally sustainable developmentBrundtland defined concept of environmentally sustainable development : ‘: ‘development development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.their own needs.’’

1992 UN Conference on Environment & Development1992 UN Conference on Environment & Development (UNCED, Rio ‘Earth Summit’) - (UNCED, Rio ‘Earth Summit’) - economic foundation for human wealth & health must be carefully integrated within a economic foundation for human wealth & health must be carefully integrated within a framework of ecological conservation & protectionframework of ecological conservation & protection..

UNCED adopted three ground-breaking international conventionsUNCED adopted three ground-breaking international conventions: : • UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): UNFCCC has goal of stabilizing : UNFCCC has goal of stabilizing

greenhouse gas concentrations ‘greenhouse gas concentrations ‘at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human induced) interference with the climate system.(human induced) interference with the climate system.’ This level ‘’ This level ‘should be achieved within a should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate changeallow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to , to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.proceed in a sustainable manner.’ ’ UNFCCC recognizes sustainable, ecosystem-based UNFCCC recognizes sustainable, ecosystem-based managementmanagement. . Kyoto Protocol Kyoto Protocol (1997, into force 2005 - 2012) implements UNFCCC by (1997, into force 2005 - 2012) implements UNFCCC by mitigationmitigation. (NB: . (NB: AdaptationAdaptation is also necessary!) is also necessary!)

• UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD): Promotes 1) conservation of biological : Promotes 1) conservation of biological diversity, 2) sustainable use of its components, & 3) fair & equitable sharing of benefits from diversity, 2) sustainable use of its components, & 3) fair & equitable sharing of benefits from use of genetic resources.use of genetic resources.

• [UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)][UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)] Promoted application of ‘ecosystem approach’Promoted application of ‘ecosystem approach’: humans are part of ecosystems & human : humans are part of ecosystems & human

activities, including production of pollutants (also climate change gases) & unsustainable utilization activities, including production of pollutants (also climate change gases) & unsustainable utilization & degradation of ecosystem resources, need to be managed/regulated so as to achieve sustainable & degradation of ecosystem resources, need to be managed/regulated so as to achieve sustainable development. Linked to ‘development. Linked to ‘precautionary principleprecautionary principle’ &‘’ &‘polluter pays principlepolluter pays principle’ in UNCED & UN ’ in UNCED & UN Agenda 21 (21Agenda 21 (21stst century) programme promoting sustainable development. century) programme promoting sustainable development.


Transboundary & international policy ‘instruments’ forTransboundary & international policy ‘instruments’ forenvironmental management of coastal & offshore areasenvironmental management of coastal & offshore areas

Include various international conventions, agreements & other Include various international conventions, agreements & other ‘instruments’, as well as European Community (EC) ‘Directives’.‘instruments’, as well as European Community (EC) ‘Directives’.

Bind States across boundaries in acting together. Collectively have Bind States across boundaries in acting together. Collectively have potentialpotential to combat causes of overexploitation, pollution (including to combat causes of overexploitation, pollution (including climate change gases), habitat degradation & human climate change gases), habitat degradation & human encroachment. encroachment.

In 2004, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, & Poland acceded to EU, In 2004, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, & Poland acceded to EU, joining Denmark, Finland, Germany & Sweden. So, many EC joining Denmark, Finland, Germany & Sweden. So, many EC Directives (implanted into national law) apply to marine Directives (implanted into national law) apply to marine environment & living marine resources including fisheries & environment & living marine resources including fisheries & biodiversity.biodiversity.

Policy & management instruments may appear fragmented or Policy & management instruments may appear fragmented or disjointed, but are in process of being disjointed, but are in process of being subsumed by application of subsumed by application of Ecosystem approach to the management of human Ecosystem approach to the management of human activitiesactivities (EAM) across diverse policy areas & EC Directives. (EAM) across diverse policy areas & EC Directives.


Some key international policy ‘instruments’ applicable in Baltic SeaSome key international policy ‘instruments’ applicable in Baltic Sea

1971 Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Importance, also Waterfowl 1971 Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Importance, also Waterfowl HabitatHabitat

1972 Convention on Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes & Other 1972 Convention on Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes & Other MatterMatter

1973 MARPOL – IMO Convention on Marine Pollution from Ships1973 MARPOL – IMO Convention on Marine Pollution from Ships 1973 Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna & Flora 1973 Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna & Flora

(CITES)(CITES) 1974/92 Convention for Protection of Marine Environment of Baltic Sea Area established 1974/92 Convention for Protection of Marine Environment of Baltic Sea Area established

Helsinki Commission (HELCOM - Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission)Helsinki Commission (HELCOM - Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission) 1979 Bonn Convention on Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals including 1979 Bonn Convention on Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals including

1991 ASCOBANS to conserve & protect small cetaceans in BS & North Sea1991 ASCOBANS to conserve & protect small cetaceans in BS & North Sea 1979 Bern Convention for Conservation of European Wildlife (fauna & flora) particularly 1979 Bern Convention for Conservation of European Wildlife (fauna & flora) particularly

endangered/vulnerable including migratory speciesendangered/vulnerable including migratory species 1982 UN Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) including resource management & 1982 UN Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) including resource management &

marine environmental protectionmarine environmental protection 1992 Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)1992 Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) 1992 UN Framework on Climate Change (Kyoto Protocol 1997, into force 2005 – 2012)1992 UN Framework on Climate Change (Kyoto Protocol 1997, into force 2005 – 2012) 1995 FAO Code of Conduct on Responsible Fisheries1995 FAO Code of Conduct on Responsible Fisheries 1995 UN Convention on Straddling Fish Stocks & Highly Migratory Fish Stocks –regime of 1995 UN Convention on Straddling Fish Stocks & Highly Migratory Fish Stocks –regime of

conservation & management of such stocksconservation & management of such stocks 2004 IMO International Convention for Control & Management of Ships’ Ballast Water & 2004 IMO International Convention for Control & Management of Ships’ Ballast Water &

Sediments – prevent spread of harmful aquatic organisms (pathogens, diseases, aliens)Sediments – prevent spread of harmful aquatic organisms (pathogens, diseases, aliens)


Some key European Community ‘instruments’ applicable in Some key European Community ‘instruments’ applicable in Baltic Sea [8 of 9 BS countries in EU]Baltic Sea [8 of 9 BS countries in EU]

1979 Directive on Conservation of Wild Birds – special measures to protect habitats 1979 Directive on Conservation of Wild Birds – special measures to protect habitats of rare & vulnerable species including migrants.of rare & vulnerable species including migrants.

1970(83) – ongoing Common Fisheries Policy (CFP, for fisheries & aquaculture). 1970(83) – ongoing Common Fisheries Policy (CFP, for fisheries & aquaculture). Exploitation of resources providing sustainable economic, environmental & social Exploitation of resources providing sustainable economic, environmental & social conditions. Including recently incorporation of ‘ecosystem approach to management’ conditions. Including recently incorporation of ‘ecosystem approach to management’ (EAM).(EAM).

1991 Directive on Aquaculture Animals & Products – productivity, health rules, limit 1991 Directive on Aquaculture Animals & Products – productivity, health rules, limit spread of infections & diseases.spread of infections & diseases.

1991 Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive – point sources of municipal waste 1991 Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive – point sources of municipal waste water discharges, sets minimum standards for collection, treatment & disposalwater discharges, sets minimum standards for collection, treatment & disposal

1991 Nitrates Directive – protection of surface & ground waters from pollution of 1991 Nitrates Directive – protection of surface & ground waters from pollution of inorganic fertilizers & manure from diffuse agriculture sources.inorganic fertilizers & manure from diffuse agriculture sources.

1992 Directive on Conservation of Natural Habitats & Wild Fauna & Flora – ‘Habitats 1992 Directive on Conservation of Natural Habitats & Wild Fauna & Flora – ‘Habitats Directive’ designates & implements conservation measures for Special Areas of Directive’ designates & implements conservation measures for Special Areas of ConservationConservation

2000 Water Framework Directive – WFD promotes integrated management of all 2000 Water Framework Directive – WFD promotes integrated management of all water-related operations in fresh & marine waters (< 1 nm from ‘baseline’). Applies water-related operations in fresh & marine waters (< 1 nm from ‘baseline’). Applies EAM.EAM.

2006 – ongoing Integrated Marine Policy to achieve full economic potential of 2006 – ongoing Integrated Marine Policy to achieve full economic potential of oceans/seas in harmony with marine environment. Marine Strategy Framework oceans/seas in harmony with marine environment. Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, 2008) is environmental pillar (applies EAM) & extends beyond WFD Directive (MSFD, 2008) is environmental pillar (applies EAM) & extends beyond WFD seawards.seawards.


Baltic Sea management: HELCOM, EC & RussiaBaltic Sea management: HELCOM, EC & Russia Fisheries management between EC & Russia via a bilateral agreement. In ‘environmental’ Fisheries management between EC & Russia via a bilateral agreement. In ‘environmental’

management excluding fisheries management, all 9 BS countries collaborate via HELCOM.management excluding fisheries management, all 9 BS countries collaborate via HELCOM. Fisheries management – Bilateral Agreement between European Community & RussiaFisheries management – Bilateral Agreement between European Community & Russia

• Bilateral agreement – in force 29 April 2009 for initial 6 yearsBilateral agreement – in force 29 April 2009 for initial 6 years: Provisions on joint management : Provisions on joint management measures for Baltic Sea fisheries. Bilateral framework needed as, following 2004 EU enlargement, measures for Baltic Sea fisheries. Bilateral framework needed as, following 2004 EU enlargement, membership of International Baltic Sea Fisheries Commission (IBSFC, Convention on Fishing and membership of International Baltic Sea Fisheries Commission (IBSFC, Convention on Fishing and Conservation of Living Resources in Baltic Sea and Belts of 1973, ‘Gdansk Convention’) consisted of Conservation of Living Resources in Baltic Sea and Belts of 1973, ‘Gdansk Convention’) consisted of only two Parties, only two Parties, i.e. i.e. EU & Russia. On 1 January 2007 IBSFC ceased following withdrawal of EU.EU & Russia. On 1 January 2007 IBSFC ceased following withdrawal of EU.

• Baltic Sea Regional Advisory Council (BS RAC)Baltic Sea Regional Advisory Council (BS RAC): Creation of RACs - pillar of 2002 CFP reform. Response : Creation of RACs - pillar of 2002 CFP reform. Response to to fisheries stakeholders fisheries stakeholders wanting to be more involved in how fisheries are managed in EU. BS RAC wanting to be more involved in how fisheries are managed in EU. BS RAC provides advice to European Commission & Member States concerning Baltic Sea fisheries provides advice to European Commission & Member States concerning Baltic Sea fisheries management in order to achieve successful running of CFP.management in order to achieve successful running of CFP.

‘‘Environmental’ management: HELCOM & the BSAP – Forum for all Baltic Sea countriesEnvironmental’ management: HELCOM & the BSAP – Forum for all Baltic Sea countries• Convention for Protection of Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea Area (1974)Convention for Protection of Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea Area (1974): Helsinki Commission : Helsinki Commission

(Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission, HELCOM) to protect the marine environment of the (Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission, HELCOM) to protect the marine environment of the Baltic Sea area from all sources of pollution & to restore & safeguard ‘ecological balance’. Baltic Sea area from all sources of pollution & to restore & safeguard ‘ecological balance’.

• ‘‘New’ 1992 ConventionNew’ 1992 Convention: Greater focus on nature conservation & protection of biological diversity : Greater focus on nature conservation & protection of biological diversity including conserving natural habitats & protecting ecological processes to ensure sustainable use of including conserving natural habitats & protecting ecological processes to ensure sustainable use of natural resources.natural resources.

• Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP)Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP): Adopted 2007: - Programme to address all major environmental : Adopted 2007: - Programme to address all major environmental problems affecting Baltic marine environment & restore ‘good ecological status’ by 2021.problems affecting Baltic marine environment & restore ‘good ecological status’ by 2021.

ICES - Providing independent scientific advice for managementICES - Providing independent scientific advice for management• International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES, established 1902)International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES, established 1902): Network of >1600 : Network of >1600

scientists (ca. 200 institutes in 20 countries) linked by ICES Convention, adding value to national scientists (ca. 200 institutes in 20 countries) linked by ICES Convention, adding value to national research efforts. Prime source of independent, politically objective scientific adviceresearch efforts. Prime source of independent, politically objective scientific advice on marine on marine ecosystem to governments & international regulatory bodies that manage the North Atlantic & ecosystem to governments & international regulatory bodies that manage the North Atlantic & adjacent seas. In Baltic Sea, ICES provides scientific advice to all 9 coastal countries, European adjacent seas. In Baltic Sea, ICES provides scientific advice to all 9 coastal countries, European Commission & HELCOM.Commission & HELCOM.


EC Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, 2008)EC Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, 2008) Aim:Aim: Achieve ‘Good Environmental Status’ (GEnS) in European Achieve ‘Good Environmental Status’ (GEnS) in European

Regional Seas by 2020Regional Seas by 2020. . Member States Member States develop & implement Marine Strategies develop & implement Marine Strategies in order to:in order to:

• ““protect and preserve the marine environment, prevent its protect and preserve the marine environment, prevent its deterioration or, where practicable, restore marine ecosystems in deterioration or, where practicable, restore marine ecosystems in areas where they have been adversely affectedareas where they have been adversely affected”; [Art1(2)(a)]”; [Art1(2)(a)]

• ““prevent and reduce inputs in the marine environment, prevent and reduce inputs in the marine environment, …..phasing out pollution…..phasing out pollution as defined in Article 3(8), so as as defined in Article 3(8), so as to ensure to ensure that there are no significant impacts on or risks to marine that there are no significant impacts on or risks to marine biodiversity, marine ecosystems, human health or legitimate biodiversity, marine ecosystems, human health or legitimate uses of the seauses of the sea”; [Art1(2)(b)] ”; [Art1(2)(b)]

Apply EAM Apply EAM “ensuring that “ensuring that collective pressure of such activities is collective pressure of such activities is kept within levels compatible with the achievement of good kept within levels compatible with the achievement of good environmental status environmental status and that the and that the capacity of marine ecosystems to capacity of marine ecosystems to respond to human-induced changes is not compromisedrespond to human-induced changes is not compromised, while , while enabling the sustainable use of marine goods and services by enabling the sustainable use of marine goods and services by present and future generationspresent and future generations”. [Art1(3)]”. [Art1(3)]

Establishes ‘Establishes ‘marine regions/sub-regionsmarine regions/sub-regions’ (e.g. Baltic Sea) as management ’ (e.g. Baltic Sea) as management units. Has units. Has EU ‘generic’ aims (common model) across regionsEU ‘generic’ aims (common model) across regions but but recognizes each region has its own specific characteristicsrecognizes each region has its own specific characteristics (ecosystem (ecosystem & human activities/pressures). & human activities/pressures).


EC MSFD - Member States must:EC MSFD - Member States must: Provide an Provide an assessment of assessment of

current status of their seas current status of their seas (July 2012)(July 2012)

Provide Provide detailed description of detailed description of what GEnS means for their what GEnS means for their waterswaters, and , and targets & targets & indicators indicators (July 2012)(July 2012)

Establish Establish monitoring monitoring programme to measure programme to measure progress towards GEnSprogress towards GEnS (July (July 2014)2014)

Establish Establish programme of programme of measures for achieving GEnSmeasures for achieving GEnS (July 2016)(July 2016)

States determine how MSFD will States determine how MSFD will be implemented by national be implemented by national agencies & agencies & in close cooperation in close cooperation with other States in regional with other States in regional forums forums (e.g. OSPAR, HELCOM). (e.g. OSPAR, HELCOM). Regional assessments delivered Regional assessments delivered by regional forumsby regional forums..

Initial assessment Initial assessment - - a) physical & a) physical & biological status, b) predominant biological status, b) predominant pressures & impacts adversely pressures & impacts adversely affecting environment, c) socio-affecting environment, c) socio-economic analysis: use & cost of economic analysis: use & cost of degradation. degradation.

Analysis of current status Analysis of current status - list of - list of characteristics & pressures characteristics & pressures (Directive’s Annex III)(Directive’s Annex III)

11 high-level descriptors of GEnS set 11 high-level descriptors of GEnS set out in Directiveout in Directive, e.g., e.g.• ‘‘Concentration of contaminants are at Concentration of contaminants are at

levels not giving rise to pollution levels not giving rise to pollution effects’effects’

• ‘‘Populations of all commercially Populations of all commercially exploited fish & shellfish are within exploited fish & shellfish are within safe biological limits’safe biological limits’

EU standardized monitoring & EU standardized monitoring & assessment methods developedassessment methods developed

European Commission (with help of European Commission (with help of ICES) develops common criteria & ICES) develops common criteria & standards for defining GEnSstandards for defining GEnS


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DEVELOP ‘VISION’ & OPERATIONAL STRATEGY FOR MAINTAINING DEVELOP ‘VISION’ & OPERATIONAL STRATEGY FOR MAINTAINING ECOSYSTEM HEALTHECOSYSTEM HEALTH


EU generic EU generic Vision. Each Vision. Each Regional Seas Regional Seas Commission Commission (e.g. HELCOM)(e.g. HELCOM)& EU State & EU State develops its develops its ownown

Generic Generic for all for all seasseas

For For specific specific regionalregionalseasea

Actions / Actions / measuresmeasures

E.g. phase out pollution to ensure no significant impacts/risk to human and/or ecosystem health and/or uses of the seaReduce impact

of contaminants

Reduce contaminant levels in fish species x

Concentration of contaminant y in fish species x

Concentration of contaminant = a (target) or < b (limit)

WHAT IS (ECOSYSTEM) HEALTH? WHAT IS (ECOSYSTEM) HEALTH? Health: BBC English Dictionary (1993) ‘Health: BBC English Dictionary (1993) ‘a state in which you are fit a state in which you are fit

& well& well’.’. Regarding an organization/system: ‘Regarding an organization/system: ‘working wellworking well’ (i.e. ’ (i.e. sum of the sum of the

partsparts) ) Healthy: extent a person/something is in ‘Healthy: extent a person/something is in ‘good conditiongood condition’ as a ’ as a

whole (some organs/systems may be healthy & others not). whole (some organs/systems may be healthy & others not). Good health & its deviation are measured against various Good health & its deviation are measured against various

‘‘reference levelsreference levels’ (e.g. normal temperature & blood pressure).’ (e.g. normal temperature & blood pressure). When When condition deviates condition deviates substantiallysubstantially from from desired target level of desired target level of

good healthgood health it is implicit one has crossed a limit level - it is implicit one has crossed a limit level - serious/irreversible harm resultsserious/irreversible harm results..

To avoid serious/irreversible harm/damage, To avoid serious/irreversible harm/damage, take precautions & take precautions & establish establish precautionary levels precautionary levels beyond which we should not beyond which we should not transgress (c.f. Body Mass Index as a precautionary indicator)transgress (c.f. Body Mass Index as a precautionary indicator)..

Keeping within the precautionary levels is wise:Keeping within the precautionary levels is wise: avoids major avoids major socioeconomic costs that arise from ill-health & its treatment socioeconomic costs that arise from ill-health & its treatment (recovery)(recovery)..


CHALLENGES:CHALLENGES:DECLINING & VULNERABLE SPECIES, HABITATS & ECOSYSTEMSDECLINING & VULNERABLE SPECIES, HABITATS & ECOSYSTEMS

Human ‘Human ‘pressurespressures’ have resulted in:’ have resulted in:• Marked declines & local extinctions of many Marked declines & local extinctions of many

vulnerable speciesvulnerable species• Degradation of habitats that provide essential Degradation of habitats that provide essential

living areas (e.g. feeding, breeding, nursery, living areas (e.g. feeding, breeding, nursery, refuges) for species & communitiesrefuges) for species & communities

• Distortions in characteristic structure, function Distortions in characteristic structure, function & integrity of ecosystems – which traditionally & integrity of ecosystems – which traditionally made them valuable - thereby affecting their made them valuable - thereby affecting their ability to provide important ‘ability to provide important ‘goods & servicesgoods & services’.’.


THE SHIFTING BASELINE (DEPLETE, SUSTAIN OR REBUILD?)THE SHIFTING BASELINE (DEPLETE, SUSTAIN OR REBUILD?)(Figure after (Figure after Pitcher T.J. & P.J.B. Hart (1998): Rebuilding ecosystems, not sustainability, as the proper Pitcher T.J. & P.J.B. Hart (1998): Rebuilding ecosystems, not sustainability, as the proper

goal of fishery management. Pp 311-329, In Pitcher T.J., Hart P.J.B. & Pauly D. (Eds) Reinventing Fisheries goal of fishery management. Pp 311-329, In Pitcher T.J., Hart P.J.B. & Pauly D. (Eds) Reinventing Fisheries Management, Chapman & Hall, London.Management, Chapman & Hall, London.


THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE (PP)THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE (PP)

• PP from UNCED 1992 [‘PP from UNCED 1992 [‘where there are threats of serious or irreversible where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing damage, lack of scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradationcost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation’] ’]

• Changes in exploited systems are slowly reversible, difficult to control, & not Changes in exploited systems are slowly reversible, difficult to control, & not well understood. PP well understood. PP calls for calls for early actionearly action in uncertainty & ignorance in uncertainty & ignorance in order to in order to prevent potential harmprevent potential harm..

• Underlines need for Underlines need for sustainable use of ecosystems & their biodiversity rather sustainable use of ecosystems & their biodiversity rather than over-exploitation, pollution & habitat degradationthan over-exploitation, pollution & habitat degradation..

Applied where an activity is or likely to cause damage & where uncertainty Applied where an activity is or likely to cause damage & where uncertainty about the risks & the degree of damage (‘burden of proof’ & its reversal)about the risks & the degree of damage (‘burden of proof’ & its reversal)..

Emphasizes knowledge is limited & Emphasizes knowledge is limited & calls for action calls for action with incomplete with incomplete knowledge! knowledge! Potentially Potentially high socioeconomic costs of impacts of depletion & high socioeconomic costs of impacts of depletion & degradation & so for restoration/recoverydegradation & so for restoration/recovery. Thus, . Thus, closely related to closely related to polluter polluter pays principlepays principle..

Scientific advice & management should have Scientific advice & management should have safe margins of error & avoid risksafe margins of error & avoid risk.. Reference points needed to implement management & regulatory measuresReference points needed to implement management & regulatory measures. .

Example, ‘Example, ‘targettarget’ , ‘’ , ‘limitlimit’, ‘’, ‘precautionaryprecautionary’ reference points for fish spawning ’ reference points for fish spawning stock biomass & fishing mortality. stock biomass & fishing mortality. Risk for exceeding limits must be very lowRisk for exceeding limits must be very low. .

‘‘Recovery plans’ must be developed & implementedRecovery plans’ must be developed & implemented..


THE POLLUTER PAYS PRINCIPLE (PPP, 1970s)THE POLLUTER PAYS PRINCIPLE (PPP, 1970s)

PPP requires producers/resource users to meet the PPP requires producers/resource users to meet the cost of implementing environmental standards or cost of implementing environmental standards or technical regulations, or by introducing liability technical regulations, or by introducing liability regimes making producers liable for causing regimes making producers liable for causing environmental damage.environmental damage.

Embedded in 1987 European Community (EC) Treaty, Embedded in 1987 European Community (EC) Treaty, & Commissions such as OSPAR, HELCOM.& Commissions such as OSPAR, HELCOM.

PPP provides framework based on environmental PPP provides framework based on environmental liability covering damage to biodiversity protected at liability covering damage to biodiversity protected at European Community & EU national levels, to waters European Community & EU national levels, to waters regulated by 2000 WFD & 2008 MSFD, & air & land regulated by 2000 WFD & 2008 MSFD, & air & land contamination which cause serious harm to human & contamination which cause serious harm to human & ecosystem health.ecosystem health.


ECOSYSTEM-BASED MANAGEMENT ECOSYSTEM-BASED MANAGEMENT (1)(1)

Ecosystem approach to management of human activities Ecosystem approach to management of human activities (EAM) defined as(EAM) defined as::

‘‘the comprehensive integrated the comprehensive integrated management of human management of human activitiesactivities based on the best available based on the best available scientific scientific knowledge about the ecosystem and its dynamicsknowledge about the ecosystem and its dynamics, in , in order to order to identify and take action on influences which are identify and take action on influences which are critical to the health of marine ecosystemscritical to the health of marine ecosystems, thereby , thereby achieving achieving sustainable use of ecosystem goods and sustainable use of ecosystem goods and services and maintenance of ecosystem integrityservices and maintenance of ecosystem integrity’’ (2003, (2003, First Joint Meeting of HELCOM & OSPAR CommissionsFirst Joint Meeting of HELCOM & OSPAR Commissions).).

Does not imply managing ecosystems by humans, but is Does not imply managing ecosystems by humans, but is managing human activities & their impactsmanaging human activities & their impacts on ecosystems. on ecosystems. Humans are an integral part of ecosystems & human Humans are an integral part of ecosystems & human socioeconomics interact with physical, chemical & biological socioeconomics interact with physical, chemical & biological parts of the system.parts of the system.


ECOSYSTEM HEALTH:ECOSYSTEM HEALTH:SUSTAINING ECOLOGICAL ‘GOODS & SERVICES’SUSTAINING ECOLOGICAL ‘GOODS & SERVICES’

EAM is a EAM is a paradigm shift paradigm shift from focus on ‘goods’ (traditional from focus on ‘goods’ (traditional industries/commodities). industries/commodities). We must also focus on sustaining We must also focus on sustaining production potential for important ecosystem ‘services’ that have production potential for important ecosystem ‘services’ that have consistently been overlooked & under-valuedconsistently been overlooked & under-valued. Services can be . Services can be ruined: catastrophic effects on ‘natural capital’ & human ruined: catastrophic effects on ‘natural capital’ & human socioeconomics.socioeconomics.

EAM aims to conserve and EAM aims to conserve and rebuild when depleted & degradedrebuild when depleted & degraded, the , the full ecological & socioeconomic value of natural ‘goods & services’.full ecological & socioeconomic value of natural ‘goods & services’.

GoodsGoods: : food (fisheries, aquaculture); raw materials (minerals, oil, food (fisheries, aquaculture); raw materials (minerals, oil, gas); medicinal materials, wild genesgas); medicinal materials, wild genes..

ServicesServices: : cleansing water & air; cleansing water & air; maintaining atmosphere/ maintaining atmosphere/ regulating climateregulating climate; storing/recycling essential nutrients; ; storing/recycling essential nutrients; absorbing/detoxifying pollutants; food webs & habitats; absorbing/detoxifying pollutants; food webs & habitats; generating/maintaining sediments & reefs; providing sites for generating/maintaining sediments & reefs; providing sites for tourism, recreation & researchtourism, recreation & research..

Value of global marine industries (i.e. providing goods) is US$ 1 Value of global marine industries (i.e. providing goods) is US$ 1 trillion, but trillion, but marine ecosystem services is US$ 21 trillionmarine ecosystem services is US$ 21 trillion. Sea. Sea provides 60% of world’s ecosystem services, but 40% from land-provides 60% of world’s ecosystem services, but 40% from land-based systems (Costanza et al. 1997). Must based systems (Costanza et al. 1997). Must better monitor & better monitor & manage ‘health’ of marine ecosystems & progress to area-based manage ‘health’ of marine ecosystems & progress to area-based ecosystem management with clear objectivesecosystem management with clear objectives..


ECOSYSTEM BASED MANAGEMENT (2)ECOSYSTEM BASED MANAGEMENT (2)• Needs Needs integrated, cross-sectoral marine management plansintegrated, cross-sectoral marine management plans

(e.g. ‘tool-box’ of (e.g. ‘tool-box’ of measuresmeasures, a , a system of marine protected areas system of marine protected areas covering representative habitats) for offshore & coastal areas & covering representative habitats) for offshore & coastal areas & develop develop long-term policieslong-term policies for ecosystem-based management. for ecosystem-based management. What What is the is the Vision & Perspectives: what do we want to achieve?Vision & Perspectives: what do we want to achieve?

• OSPAROSPAR, for example, (primed by , for example, (primed by 2002 Bergen Ministerial 2002 Bergen Ministerial Declaration of 5Declaration of 5thth International Conference on Protection of International Conference on Protection of the North Seathe North Sea) is developing & applying holistic ) is developing & applying holistic ecological quality ecological quality objectivesobjectives to maintain ecosystem qualityto maintain ecosystem quality (‘goods & services’):(‘goods & services’):– Ecological quality (EcoQ) Ecological quality (EcoQ) expresses ecosystem’s status (‘well-being’) & expresses ecosystem’s status (‘well-being’) &

includes biological, physical & chemical measures & inter-relationships , includes biological, physical & chemical measures & inter-relationships , including the results of human impacts.including the results of human impacts.

– Ecological quality objectives (EcoQOs) Ecological quality objectives (EcoQOs) define a define a desired status desired status for for components in the system relative to a reference value (e.g. reference components in the system relative to a reference value (e.g. reference value in an equivalent ‘undisturbed’ system). value in an equivalent ‘undisturbed’ system). What is the status today What is the status today ((where are we now??where are we now??), from what status has the system ), from what status has the system progressed (progressed (where have we come from??where have we come from??), & what is the desired ), & what is the desired ‘target’ status (‘target’ status (where do we wish to go??where do we wish to go??)?)?

– To deliver an EAMTo deliver an EAM: must develop a coherent & integrated, & easy to : must develop a coherent & integrated, & easy to understand suite of EcoQOs covering a key set of EcoQ componentsunderstand suite of EcoQOs covering a key set of EcoQ components..

• Implementing Implementing regional ecosystem-based management is regional ecosystem-based management is a a major challenge & opportunity for cross-sectoral stakeholder major challenge & opportunity for cross-sectoral stakeholder collaborationcollaboration (e.g. (e.g. natural, social & political sciences, regulatory natural, social & political sciences, regulatory agencies, & involved industries & wider-society).agencies, & involved industries & wider-society).


CAUSE-&-EFFECT: IDENTIFY & RANK THE (ROOT) CAUSES OF CAUSE-&-EFFECT: IDENTIFY & RANK THE (ROOT) CAUSES OF PROBLEMS ON ECOSYSTEMS & APPLY PRIORITIZED, PROBLEMS ON ECOSYSTEMS & APPLY PRIORITIZED,

TARGETED REMEDIAL ACTIONSTARGETED REMEDIAL ACTIONS

IMPACTS ONECOSYSTEMEcoQ ISSUES

EcoQ ELEMENTSEcoQOs

Powergeneration

Dredging & dumpingof wastes & litter

Oil & gas exploration& production

Recreation &tourism

Mineral &aggregateextraction

Coastal engineering& land reclamation

ShippingMariculture

Human settlements& coastal industries

Fisheries

Agriculture &forestry

EcoQ Issue/ElementReference points for commercial fish species

Threatened & declining species

Sea mammals

Seabirds

Fish communities

Benthic communities

Plankton communities

Habitats

Nutrient budgets & production

Oxygen consumption


Many industries benefit from & also impact on ecosystems

EcoQissues/elements from 2002 Bergen North Sea Ministerial Declaration

NB!

DEVELOP ‘VISION’ & OPERATIONAL STRATEGY FOR ECOSYSTEM DEVELOP ‘VISION’ & OPERATIONAL STRATEGY FOR ECOSYSTEM HEALTH: TACKLE ‘HEALTH: TACKLE ‘SHIFTING BASELINE SYNDROMESHIFTING BASELINE SYNDROME’’

• Need a Vision, Policy, & Strategy to achieve Objectives, supported by Actions to Redress (Root) Causes at relevant spatial scales involving longer term perspectives with EAM.

• What do we want to achieve & why? Unless we have a clear Vision for the Mission we will not be able to agree on the specific details (e.g. EcoQOs)

– Convincing & coherent policy to set general ’desire’ (e.g. European Marine Strategy Directive) incorporating a clear overarching vision [’we & future generations can enjoy & benefit from biologically diverse & dynamic oceans & seas that are safe, clean, healthy & productive’];

– Elaborate in meaningful terms what it is we want to achieve & why (i.e. justification) [Determined by Societal choice];

– Translatable into tangible objectives (goals) supported by agreed actions/measures (e.g. workplan comprising a ’tool-box’ of activities & regulatory measures) for implementation.

• Where are we, where have we come from & where do we wish to go?– For this we must develop effective & relevant targets & limits for

environmental/ecological quality, including development of an integrated & cohesive system of ’indicators’ that allow us to measure/track progress with respect to reference points (i.e. producing a map & knowing where we are on it & how we are moving towards our destination).


A HEALTHY ECOSYSTEM: A HEALTHY ECOSYSTEM: GOOD ACCORDANCE WITH TARGET LEVELS GOOD ACCORDANCE WITH TARGET LEVELS ACROSS THE SUITE OF ECOLOGICAL QUALITY INDICATORSACROSS THE SUITE OF ECOLOGICAL QUALITY INDICATORS

PRISTINE(NON-IMPACTED)

TARGET

PRECAUTIONARYDO NOT CROSS FOR SAFETY

LIMITDO NOT TRANSGRESS

INCREASING HUMAN IMPACT

HIGH QUALITYSTATUS

BAD STATUS:SERIOUS OR

IRREVERSIBLEHARM

POORSTATUS

GOOD TOMODERATE

STATUS

SUSTAINABLE NON-SUSTAINABLE

REFERENCE DIRECTIONS


Herenow

‘Traffic lights’ system

Gross categories

2002 Bergen Ministerial Declaration on Protection of 2002 Bergen Ministerial Declaration on Protection of North Sea set Conceptual Framework for an Ecosystem North Sea set Conceptual Framework for an Ecosystem

Approach to Management of Human ActivitiesApproach to Management of Human Activities

ECOSYSTEMOBJECTIVES

ADAPTIVEMANAGEMENT

MONITORING &RESEARCH

ADVICEINTEGRATEDASSESSMENT

STAKEHOLDERS


DPSIR risk-based scheme: DPSIR risk-based scheme: Framework & policy tool to Framework & policy tool to identify management options for environmental issuesidentify management options for environmental issues

DriversDrivers: The human caused driving forces leading : The human caused driving forces leading to environmental pressures. Examples are to environmental pressures. Examples are socioeconomic sectoral/industry demands or socioeconomic sectoral/industry demands or trends (agriculture, fishing, energy trends (agriculture, fishing, energy production/utilization, production/utilization, etc.etc.).).

PressuresPressures: Examples are emissions/discharges of : Examples are emissions/discharges of pollutants, excessive exploitation of resources pollutants, excessive exploitation of resources (land, water, minerals, fish) affecting the state (land, water, minerals, fish) affecting the state of the environment.of the environment.

StateState: Refers to the quality and quantity of : Refers to the quality and quantity of environmental media and living resources (air, environmental media and living resources (air, water, sediments, biota and their habitats) and water, sediments, biota and their habitats) and their consequent ability to provide benefits their consequent ability to provide benefits arising from ecosystem goods and services. arising from ecosystem goods and services. The current state = natural state as modified The current state = natural state as modified by human pressuresby human pressures..

ImpactsImpacts: The environmental State (good/poor) may : The environmental State (good/poor) may have an impact (beneficial/detrimental) on have an impact (beneficial/detrimental) on human health, and the structure, function and human health, and the structure, function and integrity of ecosystems which provide integrity of ecosystems which provide amenities and commodities on which human amenities and commodities on which human communities depend.communities depend.

ResponsesResponses: Are the efforts by human society (: Are the efforts by human society (e.g.e.g. politicians decision-makers, politicians decision-makers, managers/regulators) to mitigate, adapt to or managers/regulators) to mitigate, adapt to or solve the problems identified by the assessed solve the problems identified by the assessed impacts. Responses include development and impacts. Responses include development and application of application of appropriate environmental appropriate environmental policies, management and regulatory policies, management and regulatory measuresmeasures, including BAT/BEP, , including BAT/BEP, to prevent or to prevent or eliminate pollution and restore/rehabilitate eliminate pollution and restore/rehabilitate adversely impacted environmental adversely impacted environmental media/components.media/components.

DRIVERS

PRESSURES

STATE

IMPACT

RESPONSES


MANAGEMENT OF HABITATS, SPATIAL PLANNING & MPAsMANAGEMENT OF HABITATS, SPATIAL PLANNING & MPAs

HabitatHabitat: place where plant/animal lives, characterized by physical & : place where plant/animal lives, characterized by physical & chemical features (e.g. substrate, temperature, salinity, currents).chemical features (e.g. substrate, temperature, salinity, currents).

Conservation of habitats = precondition for conserving species Conservation of habitats = precondition for conserving species & communities& communities depending on habitat characteristics/ ecological depending on habitat characteristics/ ecological quality criteria for viability. Habitat degradation, fragmentation & loss quality criteria for viability. Habitat degradation, fragmentation & loss due to human pressures are serious threats to biodiversity.due to human pressures are serious threats to biodiversity.

Mapping & inventories of marine areas provide an assessment Mapping & inventories of marine areas provide an assessment of habitat type distributions & their associated communitiesof habitat type distributions & their associated communities. . CBD, Habitats Directive (Natura 2000), & MSFD require States to CBD, Habitats Directive (Natura 2000), & MSFD require States to identify, classify & map threatened/declining species & habitats identify, classify & map threatened/declining species & habitats needing special conservation measures (e.g. Biodiversity Action needing special conservation measures (e.g. Biodiversity Action Plans/Recovery Plans).Plans/Recovery Plans).

Cross-sectoral, holistic Cross-sectoral, holistic spatial planning important delivery tool of spatial planning important delivery tool of an ecosystem-based managementan ecosystem-based management (c.f. Maritime Policy, MSFD) to (c.f. Maritime Policy, MSFD) to reconcile reconcile multiple, cumulative & potentially conflicting uses of seamultiple, cumulative & potentially conflicting uses of sea. . Use Use of zoningof zoning as spatial planning tool (c.f. ’town planning scheme’) allows as spatial planning tool (c.f. ’town planning scheme’) allows approved activities in specified areas (excludes incompatible ones).approved activities in specified areas (excludes incompatible ones).

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)Marine Protected Areas (MPAs): Important areas - certain : Important areas - certain uses/zones actively managed regarding human activities uses/zones actively managed regarding human activities (use/access/purpose) to conserve natural resources (e.g. HELCOM, (use/access/purpose) to conserve natural resources (e.g. HELCOM, OSPAR & Natura 2000).OSPAR & Natura 2000).


HOW DOES CLIMATE CHANGE GET INTEGRATED? (1)HOW DOES CLIMATE CHANGE GET INTEGRATED? (1)

Two main waysTwo main ways to tackle climate change regarding management to tackle climate change regarding management :: 1) Mitigation1) Mitigation: (Definition) - : (Definition) - Taking actions to slow the speed & amount of Taking actions to slow the speed & amount of

climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) & increasing climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) & increasing their absorption by enhancing absorbents (‘sinks’)their absorption by enhancing absorbents (‘sinks’) (Barents Euro-Arctic (Barents Euro-Arctic Council 2004). Council 2004). • Mitigation involves each marine industry finding ways to reduce their Mitigation involves each marine industry finding ways to reduce their

GHG emissions. Involves application & further development of best GHG emissions. Involves application & further development of best available practices (BAT) & best environmental technologies (BET).available practices (BAT) & best environmental technologies (BET).

• The marine industries can contribute by:The marine industries can contribute by: 1) 1) Increasing their energy efficiencyIncreasing their energy efficiency 2) 2) Using renewable energy sourcesUsing renewable energy sources such as solar power, wind such as solar power, wind

power, geothermal and water power & even nuclear energy.power, geothermal and water power & even nuclear energy. Fishing industryFishing industry, , mitigationmitigation as as an examplean example::

• More use of passive, more target-specific fishing gears increasingly More use of passive, more target-specific fishing gears increasingly desirable, in response to cost of wild-fish capture escalating through desirable, in response to cost of wild-fish capture escalating through rising fuel prices.rising fuel prices.

• Enhanced ship hull & propulsion to lower emissions footprint of current Enhanced ship hull & propulsion to lower emissions footprint of current fleets & making optimal use of environmentally friendly energy sources.fleets & making optimal use of environmentally friendly energy sources.


HOW DOES CLIMATE CHANGE GET INTEGRATED? (2)HOW DOES CLIMATE CHANGE GET INTEGRATED? (2)

2) Adaptation:2) Adaptation: (Definition) - (Definition) - Taking actions concerning ‘adjustment’ of Taking actions concerning ‘adjustment’ of natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC 2007). (IPCC 2007). Adaptation covers actions to attempt to limit adverse impacts Adaptation covers actions to attempt to limit adverse impacts by becoming more resilient to the climate changes that will occur while by becoming more resilient to the climate changes that will occur while mankind pursues mitigationmankind pursues mitigation..

Fishing industry, adaptation Fishing industry, adaptation as an exampleas an example::• Tackle excessive exploitation of many living marine resources & Tackle excessive exploitation of many living marine resources &

ecosystem effects of fishing. Besides increasing their resilience to ecosystem effects of fishing. Besides increasing their resilience to climate change & decreasing their variability, this facilitates achieving climate change & decreasing their variability, this facilitates achieving two other desirable goals, two other desirable goals, viz.viz. achieving longer term sustainable yields achieving longer term sustainable yields from such resources & reducing ‘greenhouse’ gas emissions in their from such resources & reducing ‘greenhouse’ gas emissions in their harvestingharvesting..


General guidelines regarding managementGeneral guidelines regarding managementfor adapting to climate changefor adapting to climate change

Follow EAM & other good practices, keep well within Follow EAM & other good practices, keep well within precautionary limits, thus enhancing ecosystem resilience. precautionary limits, thus enhancing ecosystem resilience. Management framework must ensure adequate measures Management framework must ensure adequate measures will be taken as changes appear: be responsive & adaptive.will be taken as changes appear: be responsive & adaptive.

Reduce anthropogenic stressors on marine ecosystems. Reduce anthropogenic stressors on marine ecosystems. Climate change depends on extent to which other Climate change depends on extent to which other pressures (pressures (e.g. e.g. excessive ‘extractive’ harvesting, pollution excessive ‘extractive’ harvesting, pollution including eutrophication, human encroachment) also cause including eutrophication, human encroachment) also cause stress.stress.

Protect key ecosystem features/resilience & implement Protect key ecosystem features/resilience & implement appropriate & timely restoration/recovery plans.appropriate & timely restoration/recovery plans.

Incorporate climate change adaptation (& mitigation) into Incorporate climate change adaptation (& mitigation) into sectoral planning sectoral planning including risk assessment.including risk assessment.

Facilitate knowledge/understanding/capacity building about Facilitate knowledge/understanding/capacity building about climate change as an integral part of marine environmental climate change as an integral part of marine environmental management in a management in a cross-sectoral waycross-sectoral way..


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LINKING SCIENCE & POLICY (1)LINKING SCIENCE & POLICY (1)

SCIENTIFICRESEARCH

MODELLING &

SYNTHESIS

SCIENCE-BASEDADVICE

SCIENCE-BASEDADVICE

POLICY,REGULATION

&MANAGEMENT

SCIENTISTS

ADVISORY BODIES EXECUTIVE AUTHORITIES

PREDICTIVECAPACITY

SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONSSCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS


Hopkins C.C.E., J. Thulin, J.G. Sutinen, K. Kononen, P. Snoeijs, S. Johansson & H.-O. Nalbach 2007. BONUS-169 Baltic Sea Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. BONUS Publication No. 5. Academy of Finland.

BONUS-169 Programme: Collaboration of national Baltic Sea funding agencies & EC to create a cooperative, interdisciplinary, well integrated and focused transnational research programme in support of the Baltic Sea region’s sustainable development, by providing scientific outputs that facilitate the implementation of ecosystem-based management of the Baltic Sea environmental issues.www.bonusportal.org

LINKING SCIENCE & POLICY (2)LINKING SCIENCE & POLICY (2)

Vital importance of scientific support for policy provided by Vital importance of scientific support for policy provided by research in advancing knowledge base needed to:research in advancing knowledge base needed to:• Provide the best available scientific advice for Provide the best available scientific advice for

implementing ecosystem-based management.implementing ecosystem-based management.• Elaborate & evaluate new, prudent policies, including Elaborate & evaluate new, prudent policies, including

performance & impact of policies & management/ performance & impact of policies & management/ regulatory measuresregulatory measures..

Must Must communicate outcomes communicate outcomes & & address uncertainty & riskaddress uncertainty & risk inherent in such developments/approaches/models in a inherent in such developments/approaches/models in a clearly understandable manner for diverse stakeholders clearly understandable manner for diverse stakeholders (e.g. fishers, environmental NGOs, sector ministries & (e.g. fishers, environmental NGOs, sector ministries & commissions).commissions).

Meaningful dialogue & confidence-building Meaningful dialogue & confidence-building between between stakeholders as ‘partners’ is vital.stakeholders as ‘partners’ is vital.


SCENARIOSSCENARIOS: STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT OPTIONS: STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT OPTIONS[DPSIR][DPSIR]

‘‘Futures’ and scenariosFutures’ and scenarios: consider : consider how recent past, current (today) & how recent past, current (today) & emerging ecosystem changes may emerging ecosystem changes may become tomorrow’s reality. become tomorrow’s reality.

Analyze Analyze sources, patterns, causes sources, patterns, causes ((e.g. DPSIR) of change & e.g. DPSIR) of change & map map futures/‘outlooks’ futures/‘outlooks’ ((what if?).what if?).

‘ ‘Scenarios’ - Scenarios’ - narratives (stories) narratives (stories) establishing alternative possible establishing alternative possible futuresfutures, as , as an important tool for an important tool for managementmanagement. They are imagine . They are imagine futures, providing an account or futures, providing an account or synopsis of various projected synopsis of various projected trajectories, from today’s baseline trajectories, from today’s baseline ((status quostatus quo) status for the system ) status for the system ((e.g.e.g. fisheries & subsystems). fisheries & subsystems).

Consider a range of plausible but Consider a range of plausible but potentially equally relevant potentially equally relevant development alternatives/optionsdevelopment alternatives/options: : optimistic/desirable & optimistic/desirable & problematic/undesirable futures. problematic/undesirable futures.

NB: Scenarios should not come singly NB: Scenarios should not come singly as a forecast would, but in as a forecast would, but in sets of sets of alternatives/optionsalternatives/options..

Scenarios draw on qualitative & Scenarios draw on qualitative & quantitative knowledgequantitative knowledge about main about main driving forces (driving forces (i.e.i.e. drivers) & pressures drivers) & pressures acting on various component subsystems acting on various component subsystems making up the overall system. making up the overall system. Main Main purpose of scenario building: to purpose of scenario building: to support strategic planning & enable support strategic planning & enable decision-makers to explore major, decision-makers to explore major, alternative futures, thus clarifying alternative futures, thus clarifying intervention options (responses) & intervention options (responses) & consequencesconsequences..

Example of Baltic Sea scenario Example of Baltic Sea scenario examinationexamination: : Under anticipated climate Under anticipated climate warming of Baltic Sea & its affects on warming of Baltic Sea & its affects on water exchange/flushing of the system water exchange/flushing of the system with consequences for temperature, with consequences for temperature, salinity & oxygen changes, plus salinity & oxygen changes, plus management measures to reduce the management measures to reduce the eutrophication of the sea, what may eutrophication of the sea, what may happen to recruitment, growth & happen to recruitment, growth & productivity of cod, herring & brisling productivity of cod, herring & brisling stocks, & what are the prudent longer stocks, & what are the prudent longer term options/strategies for sustainable term options/strategies for sustainable fisheries management? fisheries management?


Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!


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Discussion/ClarificationDiscussion/Clarification Questions & answers:Questions & answers:

• Related to presentation (ca. 5 minutes)Related to presentation (ca. 5 minutes) Literature:Literature:

• Bergen Ministerial Declaration 2002. 5Bergen Ministerial Declaration 2002. 5thth International Conference on Protection of International Conference on Protection of the North Sea.the North Sea. Norwegian Ministry of the Environment, Oslo, Norway. Norwegian Ministry of the Environment, Oslo, Norway.

• C.C.E. Hopkins 2005. C.C.E. Hopkins 2005. The concept of Ecosystem Health & association with the The concept of Ecosystem Health & association with the Ecosystem Approach to Management and related initiatives. ICES Ecosystem Approach to Management and related initiatives. ICES BSRP/HELCOM/UNEP Regional Sea Workshop on Baltic Sea Ecosystem Health BSRP/HELCOM/UNEP Regional Sea Workshop on Baltic Sea Ecosystem Health Indicators. Indicators. 30 March – 1 April 2005. Sopot, Poland. 30 March – 1 April 2005. Sopot, Poland.

• Hopkins C.C.E. 2004. Hopkins C.C.E. 2004. Biodiversity Assessment and Threats Analysis for the WWF Biodiversity Assessment and Threats Analysis for the WWF Global 200 EcoRegion ‘North-East Atlantic Shelf’. Global 200 EcoRegion ‘North-East Atlantic Shelf’. WWF Germany, Frankfurt am WWF Germany, Frankfurt am Main. Main.

Exercise:Exercise: ‘How should Baltic Sea management (e.g. ‘How should Baltic Sea management (e.g. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan) aim to fully manifest & HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan) aim to fully manifest & integrate the 'climate change dimension' into its integrate the 'climate change dimension' into its operations? [Precise wording from Brian MacKenzie]operations? [Precise wording from Brian MacKenzie]

NB: You are the future – we need your ‘new ideas’ (no old NB: You are the future – we need your ‘new ideas’ (no old baggage!) [Integrate knowledge]baggage!) [Integrate knowledge]


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international climate change agreements & baltic sea management chris hopkins aquamarine...

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eam framework

european regional seas

mins presentation

framework convention

international instruments

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th international conference

general framework necessary