© TTAC Limited - for more effective management of risk and uncertainty

© TTAC Limited - for more effective management of risk and uncertainty

Raising the game on “Risk”

presentation to the Australian Rail Safety Conference

“Identifying and strengthening the weakest link”

Darling Island Wharf, 28 March 2012

THEMES:Ancient History - risk in safety-critical industries

Evolution of UK rail risk knowledge

Benefits & relevance in Australia

Tony Taig, TTAC Ltd (UK)e-mail tony.taig@ttac.co.uk

Rail Safety 2012 3

© TTAC Ltd, 2012

HISTORY

Rail Safety 2012 4

© TTAC Ltd, 2012

by 1977 ...... Nuclear

Aviation

Chemicals

...

...

Rail (?!?!?!)

Windscale Fire 1957

Rail Safety 2012 5

© TTAC Ltd, 2012

King’s Cross Fire 1987

Rail Safety 2012 6

© TTAC Ltd, 2012

Clapham Junction 1988

35 dead, 500 injured

Rail Safety 2012 7

© TTAC Ltd, 2012

Responses to King’s Cross and

Clapham Rail Accidents

“Get rid of wooden escalators”(Kings’ Cross)

“Introduce ATP”(Clapham)

....

....

....

“Improve knowledge of risk”(both)

Rail Safety 2012 8

© TTAC Ltd, 2012

Development of railway risk

thinking & practice in the UK

Rail Safety 2012 9

© TTAC Ltd, 2012

Railway Risk Assessments –

Early Insights

Inquiry recommendations (wooden

escalators, ATP) of limited effectiveness

BUT

Other investments could reduce risk

much more- sprinklers, flooding (Underground)

- train doors, hi-risk track staff (main line)

Rail Safety 2012 10

© TTAC Ltd, 2012

Maximising Safety Benefits

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Pro

ject

1

Pro

ject

2

Pro

ject

3

Pro

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4

Pro

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5

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6

Pro

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7

Pro

ject

8

Pro

ject

9

Pro

ject

10

Pro

ject

11

Pro

ject

12

Pro

ject

13

Pro

ject

14

Pro

ject

15

Pro

ject

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Pro

ject

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Pro

ject

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Pro

ject

19

Pro

ject

20

Pro

ject

21

£m

pe

r li

fe s

ave

d

Start at left, work to right until budget spent

Rail Safety 2012 11

© TTAC Ltd, 2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

351

98

0

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

/92

19

92

/93

19

93

/94

19

94

/95

19

95

/96

19

96

/97

19

97

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19

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/99

19

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/01

20

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/02

Year

No

. o

f d

eath

s

Passenger fallsfrom trains

Railway Staff

Effect of post-Clapham Decisions

Rail Safety 2012 12

© TTAC Ltd, 2012

Post-1990:

From “One off” to “Heartbeat”

Railtrack S&SD Railway Safety RSSB

Incident reporting (mandatory since 1997)

industry member RSSB

Safety Performance Reporting

Safety Risk Model

Rail Safety 2012 13

© TTAC Ltd, 2012

Industry knows where it stands (1)(RSSB Annual Safety Performance Report 2010/11)

1.5

4.5

5.8

76.3

55.7

187.5

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Mainline railway Bus or coach Car Pedal cycle Pedestrian Motorcycle

Fa

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ries

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m

Weighted major injuries

Fatalities

Pedestrians and other transport users

Trespassers

Travellers using named mode

Pedestrians and other transport users

Trespassers

Travellers using named mode

Rail Safety 2012 14

© TTAC Ltd, 2012

Industry knows where it stands (2)(RSSB Annual Safety Performance Report 2010/11)

72.4

18.7

9.2 10.6

29.4

17.9

11.316.3

12.6 11.18.6

0

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ecurity

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ers

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al s

erv

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(RID

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Weighted RIDDOR-reportable minor injuries

Weighted major injuries

Fatalities

Rail workers

Rail Safety 2012 15

© TTAC Ltd, 2012

Safety Outcomes(RSSB Annual Safety Performance Report 2010/11)

0

2

4

6

8

10

19

50

/51

19

52

/53

19

54

/55

19

56

/57

19

58

/59

19

60

/61

19

62

/63

19

64

/65

19

66

/67

19

68

/69

19

70

/71

19

72

/73

19

74

/75

19

76

/77

19

78

/79

19

80

/81

19

82

/83

19

84

/85

19

86

/87

19

88

/89

19

90

/91

19

92

/93

19

94

/95

19

96

/97

19

98

/99

20

00

/01

20

02

/03

20

04

/05

20

06

/07

20

08

/09

20

10

/11

Fa

tal t

rain

ac

cid

en

ts

Train accidents with passenger or workforce fatalities

Average number over preceding 10 years

~80% reduction

in train accident

risk 2001-2011

Rail Safety 2012 16

© TTAC Ltd, 2012

So what for Australian railways?

Benefits

&

Costs

Rail Safety 2012 17

© TTAC Ltd, 2012

Benefits & Relevance

shared knowledge

industry performance

benchmarking

Improved &

shared safety

data

Risk analysis

and

modelling

richer risk picture

explore “what ifs”

demonstrate SFARP

Associated

policy

debate

better basis for

safety decisions

Better

safety

+

Better

decisions

Rail Safety 2012 18

© TTAC Ltd, 2012

Activities and Costs

Industry – record incidents, investigate,

report to regulator

Regulators & government –

monitor hi-level performance,

investigate/enforce

Industry

Collate safety data

Analyse & apply

risk information

Rail Safety 2012 19

© TTAC Ltd, 2012

Australian rail industry:

“A risk information vacuum”

Share and use your

safety intelligence

(please)