intermediate goods · downward revisions to our macroeconomic forecasts have resulted in downgrades...
TRANSCRIPT
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Highlights World output to rise 3% in 2013
Downward revisions to our macroeconomic forecasts
have resulted in downgrades to our intermediate goods
forecasts. We now expect sector production to grow by
3% this year.
On a sub-sector basis, installation and repair of
machinery and fuel products are expected to grow at
the strongest pace (3½% each). Increased repair
activity as firms postpone the purchase of machinery is
likely to help support near term growth. Relatively
inelastic demand for fuel should help the sector register
firm growth. Moderate activity in the construction sector
will support growth of 1½% and 3% in the non-metallic
minerals and wood sectors, respectively. The expansion
in motor vehicles output will propel rubber & plastic
products growth to 2¾% while paper output will be
dominated by emerging market production.
Macroeconomic risks are largely weighted to the
downside and include weaker growth in key emergers,
a Eurozone breakup and a disorderly unwinding of
quantitative easing. Growth could, however, surprise on
the upside also, arising from stronger growth in the US
and Europe.
Intermediate Goods:
Industry Briefing
2007-2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2022
Germany 0.5 -1.7 -1.9 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0France -1.3 -5.9 -1.9 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3Italy -2.5 -6.4 -5.4 1.5 3.3 2.9 1.9 1.1UK -3.2 -1.9 -0.6 2.8 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.7Spain -2.2 -0.2 -3.5 0.5 2.2 3.7 3.5 2.6
EU15 -0.7 -2.7 -1.8 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.5
United States 1.5 5.2 3.4 3.9 5.1 4.6 4.2 3.6Japan 0.7 -6.5 3.6 7.2 6.7 4.1 2.7 1.5
Developed countries 0.4 -0.2 1.6 3.8 4.4 3.6 3.1 2.5
Eastern Europe (EU12) 2.7 0.9 1.2 4.1 4.7 4.7 4.3 3.6
Brazil 0.8 0.7 2.6 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.0Russia 0.5 4.8 6.0 6.8 6.8 6.2 5.7 5.1India 6.4 1.5 2.3 6.4 7.5 8.4 8.4 7.5China 10.3 8.7 6.7 8.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.5
BRICs 8.2 7.1 5.9 7.5 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.3
Emerging Markets 6.4 5.2 4.8 6.8 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.4
World 2.9 2.3 3.1 5.2 5.3 4.8 4.4 4.0
Intermediate goodsAnnual percentage changes
China19%
Russia2%
India2%
Brazil2%
Japan10%
US22%
Spain1%
UK2%
Italy2%
France2%
Germany6%
EU-EE2%
Other28%
Intermediate goods: Value added in 2012 (US$ 2005 prices)
Source: Oxford Economics
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Developed
BRICs
Eastern Europe
Source: Oxford Economics
Intermediate goods: Output growth
Forecast
World
Note: Output is measured in value-added terms in 2005 prices, unless otherwise stated.
Intermediate Goods
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 2
Forecast overview Global production to rise 3% in 2013
Global intermediate goods production is forecast to grow
by 3% this year, a downward revision since our last
report given the downgrades to our industrial activity and
construction forecasts. Developed world output is
expected to grow by 1½% this year, a slight upward
revision since our last report owing to strong US and
Japanese projections. Production in emerging markets is
forecast to grow by 4¾% with weaker Chinese output
resulting in a downward revision since our last report.
Next year, world intermediate goods output growth is
expected to accelerate to 5¼% as economic activity
gathers pace, before decelerating from 2016.
Weak construction activity weighs on inputs
World non-metallic minerals output is forecast to grow by
1½% this year while developed world output is forecast to
decline 2¼%. The main drag within the developed world
is Western Europe where demand for all building
materials has been held back by the slump in the
construction sector. Fiscal austerity has held back public
construction activity while weak business and consumer
sentiment has capped private sector building. For the
year as a whole, production in the EU15 is expected to
decline by 6½%. Elsewhere in the developed world, US
non-metallic minerals production is expected to track
construction activity, rising 3% this year and accelerating
next while Japanese output should benefit from the
acceleration in construction activity there. Emerging
markets non-metallic minerals output is forecast to grow
3¾%. Chinese production, which accounts for over half
of emerging-market output, is forecast to decelerate
sharply to just 3% growth this year. The cement industry
has been struggling with weak demand, and profits
declined 29% in Q12013 according to the China Cement
Association.
Over the longer term, demand for building materials will
increasingly be led by emerging markets given their
faster growing construction sectors. This is likely to boost
emerging market domestic production and capacity of
bulky building materials such as cement which tend to be
produced relatively close to the point of consumption.
Meanwhile, world wood production, which is also a key
construction sector input, is forecast to grow by 3% this
year, supported by the pickup in the construction activity.
This has offset the impact of muted growth in the
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Coke & refined
petroleum products
Rubber & plastics
Non-metallic minerals
Source: Oxford Economics
World: Output growth by sub-sectors
Forecast
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
US
EU15
Japan
Source: Oxford Economics
Developed countries: Intermediate goods output growth
Forecast
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% yearCoke & refined
petroleum productsRubber & plastics
Non-metallic minerals
Source: Oxford Economics
EU15: Intermediate goods output growth
Forecast
Note: The main focus of this Briefing is on the wood, paper, mineral, rubber and plastics, and fuel products industries, together with repair and installation of machinery. But the ‘intermediates’ total also includes basic metals, some chemicals and some electrical equipment – sectors which are analysed in other Industry Briefings.
Intermediate Goods
3
furniture sector, another (albeit less important) wood
consumer. Developed world wood output is forecast to
grow 1¼% this year while emerging market output is
forecast to rise by 5 ¾%.
Machinery installation to decelerate this year
Repair & installation of machinery is forecast to slow to
growth of 3½% this year, at a global level. This broadly
mirrors the trend in engineering growth which is also
expected to ease this year. In the developed world, repair
& installation is forecast to grow by 3¼%. This is,
however, faster than the flat trend in growth in
engineering forecast for this year. In the most recent
downturn, many firms in Europe, which is the weakest of
the developed world markets, have postponed the
purchase of new machinery, using their old equipment for
longer than normal. Thus, while installation activity will
have largely ground to a halt, the repair segment of the
sector is likely to have benefited. In emerging markets,
the repair & installation sector is forecast to grow by 9%
this year. Rapid expansion in manufacturing capacity in
the emergers is likely to spur growth in this sector over
the medium term also.
World output of rubber & plastic products is forecast to
rise 2¾% this year. Growth is likely to be front-loaded,
however, given the likely flat picture for motor vehicles
production for the rest of the year. Production in the
developed world is forecast to grow by 1¼% while
emerging market output is projected to rise 5¼%. Over
the longer term, rising incomes and increasing car density
in emerging markets will drive growth in the motor
vehicles sector which will in turn support rubber
production.
With pulp & paper demand closely tied to economic
trends, world production is expected to register meagre
growth of ¼%. Developed world output is forecast to drop
1¼% while emerging market output is forecast to grow
2½%, as production continues to shift to lower-cost
countries.
Demand for petroleum and coal products is also
influenced by industrial activity more widely, although
given demand for some products such as petroleum are
fairly inelastic, this is the least cyclical of the smaller
intermediate goods sectors covered in this Brief. World
fuel output is forecast to grow by 3¼% this year.
Developed world output is projected to rise 2¼% while
emerging market production will grow 4¼%.
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Italy
UKGermany
Source: Oxford Economics
Intermediate goods: Output
Forecast
France
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Hungary
Poland
Czech Republic
Source: Oxford Economics
Intermediate goods: Output
Forecast
Slovakia
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Russia
Brazil
India
Source: Oxford Economics
Intermediate goods: Output growth
Forecast
China
.
Intermediate Goods
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 4
Forecast Risks
The Chinese government is currently considering
tougher emissions standard for cement factories in a
bid to lower excess capacity and reduce pollution. If
such measures are introduced, less efficient plants
are likely to reduce production of close resulting in
weaker production trends, at least in the short term.
The risks to our motor vehicles output forecast
are weighted to the downside which points to
downside risks to our rubber products forecast
given motor vehicles, specifically tyres, are a key
end-use sector. Car sales have been supported
by incentive schemes and as these are scaled
back, sales could also falter.
Where is intermediate goods production expanding fastest?
Where is intermediate goods production suffering the most?
Last year Next 5 yearsCyprus -12.4 Cyprus -3.9Qatar -9.2 Portugal -0.1
Japan -6.5 Netherlands 0.6Italy -6.4 Hong Kong 0.6France -5.9 Germany 0.6Switzerland -4.8 Italy 0.8Ukraine -4.3 France 0.9
Pakistan -4.0 Sweden 1.2Sweden -3.9 Malta 1.2Estonia -3.8 Spain 1.2
Intermediate goods - Top 10 slowest growing countries(Annual percentage changes)
Last year Next 5 yearsLatvia 14.7 Uruguay 7.4Saudi Arabia 10.1 Vietnam 7.1
Egypt 9.6 China 7.0Bahrain 9.3 Lithuania 6.9Iraq 8.9 India 6.6China 8.7 Ukraine 6.6Indonesia 7.2 Indonesia 6.3
Malaysia 6.4 Russia 6.3Slovakia 6.0 Thailand 6.2Kuwait 5.8 Ecuador 6.2
Intermediate goods - Top 10 fastest growing countries(Annual percentage changes)
.
Intermediate Goods
5
Risk Scenario analysis
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
World: Intermediate goods% y/y
Source : Oxford Economics
Shaky foundations for BRICs
Baseline
Forecast
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
World: Intermediate goods% y/y
Source : Oxford Economics
Eurozone tensions reach breaking point
Baseline
Forecast
Our baseline forecast is for intermediate goods
output to grow by 3¼% this year, accelerating to
growth of 5¼%. The recovery in activity is
expected to be slow in this present cycle, given
the sluggish recovery in global industrial activity.
Given relatively inelastic demand for fuel and
the somewhat counter-cyclical component of the
repair & machinery sector, these sub-sectors
are least responsive of the intermediate goods
sectors to shocks. In contrast, with non-metallic
minerals typically produced close to the point of
consumption with less scope for export,
production is much more sensitive to regional
shocks.
In the first scenario, which assumes slower
growth in the BRICs, weaker investment
spending dampens production in key end-use
sectors such as construction and motor
vehicles. Demand for intermediate goods falls in
tandem while trade links result in lower activity
in other parts of the world also. World
intermediate goods output drops 0.5 percentage
points below baseline but reflecting the speedier
rebalancing away from commodity-intensive
industrial activity, Chinese intermediate goods
output growth shifts 0.9 percentage points away
from baseline.
The Eurozone breakup scenario has the biggest
impact on intermediate goods production given
global economic activity is weakest under this
scenario. Lower investment and consumer
spending hits activity in end-use sectors which
in turn curbs intermediate good production.
Unsurprisingly, activity in the EU15 is the most
adversely affected, with production down by
over six percentage points compared to
baseline in 2016. This compares to a four
percentage point reduction in global output.
In the third scenario of a disorderly unwinding of
quantitative easing, production is initially
stronger than in the base case given stronger
output of end-use output. However, as central
banks tighten policy and end-use activity slows,
intermediate goods production growth also
eases. World output is least affected in this
scenario with only a one percentage point
divergence from base in 2016.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
World: Intermediate goods% y/y
Source : Oxford Economics
Central banks get more than they bargained for
Baseline
Forecast
Intermediate Goods
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 6
In the final scenario, stronger economic growth
spurs demand for raw materials. Production of
intermediate goods rises 0.5 percentage points
above baseline as a result. However, technological
advances may also result in substitution away from
some intermediate goods. Increasing use of
electronic media has dampened paper production
and stronger growth than in the baseline could
hasten this substitution. In addition, greater fuel
efficiency and increasing development and use of
alternative energy may dampen the boost to fuel
production.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
World: Intermediate goods% y/y
Source : Oxford Economics
The golden age
Baseline
Forecast
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017US
Baseline 3.4 3.9 5.1 4.6 4.2Shaky foundations for BRICs 3.3 3.5 4.6 4.3 4.2Eurozone tensions reach breaking point 3.4 3.9 2.2 -0.9 2.0Central banks get more than they bargained for 3.9 5.7 4.1 0.6 1.7The golden age 3.7 5.2 6.3 5.2 3.9
EU15Baseline -1.8 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.8Shaky foundations for BRICs -1.9 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.9Eurozone tensions reach breaking point -1.8 1.5 -0.6 -4.1 -1.8Central banks get more than they bargained for -1.8 2.6 2.7 1.4 0.8The golden age -1.7 2.7 3.3 2.4 1.5
JapanBaseline 3.6 7.2 6.7 4.1 2.7Shaky foundations for BRICs 3.6 6.8 6.1 3.8 2.9Eurozone tensions reach breaking point 3.6 7.2 3.9 -1.1 -0.1Central banks get more than they bargained for 3.8 8.5 6.7 2.0 0.4The golden age 3.8 8.2 8.0 4.8 2.5
ChinaBaseline 6.7 8.0 6.8 6.8 6.8Shaky foundations for BRICs 6.6 7.1 5.5 5.9 6.3Eurozone tensions reach breaking point 6.7 8.0 5.2 3.0 3.9Central banks get more than they bargained for 6.8 9.1 7.7 5.5 5.3The golden age 6.9 9.0 8.4 7.9 6.8
WorldBaseline 3.1 5.2 5.3 4.8 4.4Shaky foundations for BRICs 3.0 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3Eurozone tensions reach breaking point 3.1 5.2 2.8 0.2 2.2Central banks get more than they bargained for 3.3 6.4 5.3 3.0 2.8The golden age 3.3 6.3 6.4 5.3 4.1
Intermediate goods% change from a year earlier
Intermediate Goods
7
2007-2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2022
Austria 2.0 -1.5 -0.6 2.4 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.1 21.53Belgium -1.7 -3.5 -0.6 2.1 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.3 20.84Denmark -3.9 -0.7 0.1 3.4 3.8 2.4 2.2 2.1 5.78Finland -3.2 -1.8 -0.3 2.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.3 16.80France -1.3 -5.9 -1.9 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 58.57Germany 0.5 -1.7 -1.9 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 193.83Greece -3.6 -0.5 -2.8 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.3 5.88Ireland 9.0 -0.3 11.3 3.5 2.3 3.1 3.5 4.5 21.39Italy -2.5 -6.4 -5.4 1.5 3.3 2.9 1.9 1.1 74.67Luxembourg -7.1 1.4 7.2 4.1 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.0 1.32Netherlands 0.1 3.3 -0.7 -0.1 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 28.12Portugal 2.8 -1.5 -3.4 -0.3 0.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 11.83Spain -2.2 -0.2 -3.5 0.5 2.2 3.7 3.5 2.6 49.94Sweden 0.4 -3.9 -3.7 2.2 3.0 2.5 2.1 1.4 24.34UK -3.2 -1.9 -0.6 2.8 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.7 59.52EU15 -0.7 -2.7 -1.8 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.5 594.34
Australia 0.8 -1.7 1.2 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.5 27.7Canada -3.1 0.6 1.7 4.0 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.8 48.9Japan 0.7 -6.5 3.6 7.2 6.7 4.1 2.7 1.5 353.30New Zealand -1.7 2.2 1.0 3.4 3.6 3.0 2.8 2.4 4.2Norway -0.4 -3.0 1.6 4.0 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.2 8.74Switzerland 1.4 -4.8 -0.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 21.4US 1.5 5.2 3.4 3.9 5.1 4.6 4.2 3.6 780.70
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 0.4 -0.2 1.6 3.8 4.4 3.6 3.1 2.5 1839.32
Bulgaria -6.3 2.0 4.4 5.9 5.1 4.7 5.3 5.4 1.57Cyprus -3.9 -12.4 -15.0 -5.9 -0.2 0.1 2.6 3.2 0.33Czech Republic 1.8 0.5 0.6 5.1 6.0 5.1 4.7 3.3 13.92Estonia 2.0 -3.8 6.0 5.0 6.3 5.6 5.4 4.8 1.01Hungary -3.0 -0.4 -0.9 2.2 4.6 3.9 5.1 3.4 7.14Latvia 1.1 14.7 -7.9 5.8 5.1 4.8 3.0 2.3 1.30Lithuania -0.3 -1.3 4.3 8.8 8.3 7.2 6.1 4.0 2.10Malta -2.2 4.7 2.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.8 0.31Poland 8.2 1.2 0.3 4.1 3.6 4.2 3.8 3.7 27.35Romania 3.7 -2.2 9.1 2.2 4.1 5.2 5.1 4.3 6.36Slovak Republic 1.6 6.0 1.6 5.3 6.0 5.2 3.4 2.7 6.64Slovenia -7.7 -3.4 -1.9 1.5 3.9 4.2 4.4 2.5 2.17EASTERN EUROPE (EU12) 2.7 0.9 1.2 4.1 4.7 4.7 4.3 3.6 70.19
Brazil 0.8 0.7 2.6 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.0 67.12Russia 0.5 4.8 6.0 6.8 6.8 6.2 5.7 5.1 55.66India 6.4 1.5 2.3 6.4 7.5 8.4 8.4 7.5 79.76China 10.3 8.7 6.7 8.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.5 668.04BRICs 8.2 7.1 5.9 7.5 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.3 870.63
Turkey 3.6 1.5 -1.4 5.9 5.7 4.6 3.7 4.0 56.05Ukraine -3.0 -4.3 -1.4 11.0 9.3 7.7 6.6 5.5 8.57
Hong Kong -2.8 -1.1 0.0 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 1.1 1.75Indonesia 2.0 7.2 7.6 6.8 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.4 41.26Korea 8.0 3.8 2.6 7.0 7.5 6.1 5.2 4.2 156.40Malaysia 2.3 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.2 5.4 4.8 4.3 32.48Pakistan -6.8 -4.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.9 6.3 5.7 6.49Philippines 4.3 -0.9 8.1 6.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.0 12.73Singapore 7.6 1.5 2.5 8.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.2 19.77Taiwan 9.1 2.6 5.7 4.7 3.3 3.9 3.8 3.3 107.37Thailand 2.1 2.7 6.5 7.0 6.1 5.8 5.8 5.6 32.05Vietnam 9.7 0.0 3.6 9.0 8.2 7.4 7.1 6.7 5.06
Argentina 6.3 0.5 1.5 5.6 6.5 5.7 4.5 3.3 19.82Chile 1.1 -0.3 -1.4 5.1 4.9 4.2 3.9 3.9 7.96Colombia 2.7 -3.3 3.0 6.8 6.6 5.6 5.3 4.8 10.01Ecuador -1.3 2.7 6.6 8.8 6.6 4.5 4.6 3.7 3.22Mexico -1.2 3.6 2.8 8.0 7.5 5.4 4.9 4.5 44.91Uruguay -1.8 -0.2 17.0 6.0 6.0 4.6 3.8 3.0 1.03Venezuela -0.2 3.4 0.9 2.6 3.8 4.6 4.1 2.8 18.13
Bahrain 4.1 9.3 3.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.53Egypt 13.3 9.6 4.5 5.0 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.3 14.70Iraq 10.6 8.9 7.4 6.5 5.8 5.6 5.5 4.6 0.95Israel 3.5 3.8 1.3 6.5 5.0 4.8 4.3 3.9 9.67Kuwait 0.6 5.8 2.8 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.5 4.34Oman 6.9 4.7 4.7 6.8 6.9 6.5 5.5 5.4 2.81Qatar -0.9 -9.2 5.9 6.7 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.6 3.06Saudi Arabia 10.4 10.1 6.0 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.3 51.69South Africa 1.1 3.0 3.6 4.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 4.3 20.21United Arab Emirates 0.2 -0.3 4.0 4.9 5.4 5.6 4.6 3.9 10.26EMERGING MARKETS 6.4 5.2 4.8 6.8 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.4 1646.36
WORLD 2.9 2.3 3.1 5.2 5.3 4.8 4.4 4.0 3485.67
Intermediate goods(Annual percentage changes unless specified)
US$bn (2005 prices)2012
Intermediate Goods
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 8
2012 2017 2012 2017 2012 2017Austria 33.98 32.97 6.79 6.75 0.62 0.53Belgium 39.22 40.18 5.72 5.92 0.60 0.52Denmark 19.96 19.72 2.59 2.66 0.16 0.15Finland 45.30 46.27 9.32 9.71 0.48 0.43France 29.33 29.59 2.90 2.89 1.68 1.41Germany 31.62 31.47 6.93 6.73 5.56 4.60Greece 35.84 37.28 3.33 3.65 0.17 0.14Ireland 36.64 40.91 11.25 12.76 0.61 0.61Italy 28.81 28.76 4.77 4.89 2.14 1.78Luxembourg 59.26 59.66 3.52 3.76 0.04 0.04Netherlands 33.78 34.10 4.52 4.50 0.81 0.66Portugal 46.20 45.14 6.72 6.67 0.34 0.27Spain 35.28 34.43 4.76 5.00 1.43 1.22Sweden 35.58 34.39 6.57 6.35 0.70 0.59UK 25.93 26.22 2.81 2.75 1.71 1.49
EU15 31.58 31.61 4.87 4.87 17.05 14.44
Australia 37.30 37.02 3.42 3.26 0.79 0.70Canada 36.42 37.29 4.16 4.23 1.40 1.29Japan 38.12 40.59 7.62 8.93 10.14 10.27New Zealand 29.17 28.83 3.58 3.57 0.12 0.11Norway 33.22 33.30 2.96 3.09 0.25 0.23Switzerland 27.10 25.86 5.14 5.06 0.61 0.53US 43.24 43.66 5.71 6.14 22.40 22.06
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 37.21 38.18 5.52 5.88 52.77 49.63
Bulgaria 35.45 36.71 5.29 5.80 0.04 0.05Cyprus 30.64 30.79 2.02 2.04 0.01 0.01Czech Republic 32.20 33.35 10.74 11.96 0.40 0.39Estonia 44.14 46.05 7.44 8.02 0.03 0.03Hungary 31.72 31.74 7.63 8.17 0.20 0.19Latvia 60.80 58.92 8.43 7.41 0.04 0.03Lithuania 35.50 35.58 7.66 8.38 0.06 0.07Malta 38.26 38.76 5.23 5.17 0.01 0.01Poland 32.80 31.95 2.91 2.86 0.78 0.73Romania 26.53 28.96 6.22 7.10 0.18 0.18Slovak Republic 30.82 32.58 8.87 9.69 0.19 0.19Slovenia 28.33 29.24 6.38 7.25 0.06 0.06EASTERN EUROPE (EU12) 32.06 32.50 4.74 4.91 2.01 1.94
Brazil 45.50 46.49 7.00 7.04 1.93 1.87Russia 43.31 44.17 6.97 7.86 1.60 1.73India 40.95 40.43 6.29 6.24 2.29 2.52China 43.54 42.36 14.77 14.45 19.16 21.54BRICs 43.41 42.54 11.53 11.62 24.98 27.66
Turkey 49.70 46.91 10.09 9.60 1.59 1.52Ukraine 51.51 48.71 9.59 11.24 0.24 0.27
Hong Kong 38.59 38.71 0.76 0.64 0.05 0.04Indonesia 38.67 40.33 9.67 9.95 1.17 1.27Korea 50.82 53.07 16.10 17.75 4.49 4.73Malaysia 65.82 66.23 16.64 17.74 0.92 0.98Pakistan 25.40 26.17 4.82 5.11 0.18 0.20Philippines 41.73 43.75 9.05 9.43 0.36 0.39Singapore 40.25 41.60 11.22 11.38 0.56 0.54Taiwan 70.96 72.37 23.39 24.40 3.05 3.00Thailand 40.89 41.30 14.33 15.25 0.91 0.98Vietnam 26.32 26.92 6.27 6.49 0.14 0.16
Argentina 34.48 35.44 7.90 8.30 0.57 0.57Chile 38.05 38.12 5.33 5.06 0.23 0.21Colombia 41.21 44.11 5.48 5.83 0.28 0.30Ecuador 41.17 44.27 6.08 6.80 0.09 0.10Mexico 25.91 27.16 4.56 4.92 1.29 1.36Uruguay 31.23 36.24 4.59 5.39 0.03 0.03Venezuela 52.45 52.36 9.81 9.74 0.52 0.48
Bahrain 87.66 87.07 11.13 10.40 0.07 0.06Egypt 70.82 71.59 11.85 12.41 0.42 0.43Iraq 82.65 82.09 1.22 1.26 0.03 0.03Israel 43.11 43.69 6.22 6.37 0.27 0.27Kuwait 73.48 73.35 4.35 4.21 0.12 0.11Oman 61.62 63.48 5.96 6.47 0.08 0.09Qatar 31.24 30.69 2.01 1.98 0.09 0.09Saudi Arabia 88.68 88.66 11.16 11.47 1.47 1.49South Africa 42.90 44.03 7.39 7.53 0.57 0.57United Arab Emirates 46.42 47.12 4.37 4.60 0.29 0.30
EMERGING MARKETS 44.57 44.39 10.16 10.49 47.23 50.37
WORLD 40.36 41.08 7.04 7.55 100.00 100.00
Intermediate goods' shares% of Manufacturing % of GDP % of World Output
Intermediate Goods
9
2012 2017 2012 2017 2012 2017Austria 2.74 2.47 0.55 0.51 0.44 0.37Belgium 3.77 3.73 0.55 0.55 0.51 0.44Denmark 0.22 0.23 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02Finland 2.63 2.72 0.54 0.57 0.24 0.24France 0.99 0.97 0.10 0.09 0.50 0.43Germany 0.91 0.85 0.20 0.18 1.40 1.15Greece 13.16 13.02 1.22 1.28 0.54 0.46Ireland 0.09 0.10 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01Italy 2.00 1.80 0.33 0.31 1.31 1.04Luxembourg 18.88 18.66 1.12 1.18 0.11 0.11Netherlands 4.50 4.73 0.60 0.62 0.95 0.85Portugal 5.64 5.73 0.82 0.85 0.36 0.32Spain 8.04 7.76 1.08 1.13 2.87 2.55Sweden 0.90 0.91 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15UK 0.65 0.66 0.07 0.07 0.38 0.35EU15 2.06 2.00 0.32 0.31 9.80 8.48
Australia 2.55 2.54 0.23 0.22 0.48 0.44Canada 2.85 2.81 0.33 0.32 0.96 0.90Japan 0.93 0.87 0.19 0.19 2.18 2.05New Zealand 1.41 1.47 0.17 0.18 0.05 0.05Norway 1.00 1.02 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.07Switzerland 0.19 0.18 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03US 7.92 7.54 1.05 1.06 36.11 35.32
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 3.98 3.93 0.59 0.60 49.69 47.35
Bulgaria 14.00 14.26 2.09 2.25 0.16 0.16Cyprus 1.67 2.19 0.11 0.14 0.00 0.00Czech Republic 0.54 0.56 0.18 0.20 0.06 0.06Estonia 1.08 1.01 0.18 0.18 0.01 0.01Hungary 4.66 4.38 1.12 1.13 0.26 0.24Latvia 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00Lithuania 5.22 4.42 1.13 1.04 0.08 0.08Malta 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Poland 2.49 2.19 0.22 0.20 0.52 0.47Romania 1.99 1.57 0.47 0.38 0.12 0.09Slovak Republic 3.55 3.92 1.02 1.17 0.19 0.21Slovenia 1.01 1.05 0.23 0.26 0.02 0.02EASTERN EUROPE (EU12) 2.58 2.43 0.38 0.37 1.43 1.35
Brazil 17.24 17.85 2.65 2.70 6.42 6.64Russia 0.60 0.55 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.20India 8.76 8.34 1.35 1.29 4.31 4.82China 2.75 2.56 0.93 0.87 10.67 12.05BRICs 4.27 3.93 1.13 1.07 21.60 23.72
Turkey 20.99 16.67 4.26 3.41 5.94 5.03Ukraine 3.61 2.79 0.67 0.64 0.15 0.14
Hong Kong 4.34 4.38 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.04Indonesia 7.15 7.15 1.79 1.76 1.91 2.10Korea 1.50 1.43 0.47 0.48 1.16 1.18Malaysia 6.59 6.48 1.67 1.74 0.82 0.90Pakistan 5.72 5.94 1.09 1.16 0.37 0.41Philippines 5.80 6.95 1.26 1.50 0.44 0.57Singapore 1.02 0.90 0.28 0.25 0.13 0.11Taiwan 3.14 3.22 1.03 1.09 1.19 1.24Thailand 1.52 1.48 0.53 0.55 0.30 0.33Vietnam 2.93 3.07 0.70 0.74 0.14 0.17
Argentina 5.74 5.95 1.32 1.39 0.83 0.89Chile 6.02 6.69 0.84 0.89 0.32 0.35Colombia 12.93 14.49 1.72 1.91 0.79 0.90Ecuador 11.63 13.34 1.72 2.05 0.23 0.28Mexico 3.03 3.45 0.53 0.63 1.33 1.60Uruguay 18.12 25.64 2.66 3.82 0.15 0.22Venezuela 19.71 18.56 3.68 3.45 1.71 1.59
Bahrain 77.28 76.02 9.81 9.08 0.56 0.52Egypt 3.30 3.09 0.55 0.53 0.17 0.17Iraq 11.08 10.32 0.16 0.16 0.03 0.03Israel 1.20 1.25 0.17 0.18 0.07 0.07Kuwait 68.29 68.04 4.04 3.91 1.01 0.97Oman 2.95 2.84 0.28 0.29 0.03 0.04Qatar 15.99 15.24 1.03 0.98 0.39 0.43Saudi Arabia 21.24 19.97 2.67 2.58 3.11 3.13South Africa 15.01 15.27 2.59 2.61 1.77 1.83United Arab Emirates 36.45 35.96 3.43 3.51 2.02 2.10
EMERGING MARKETS 5.40 5.00 1.23 1.18 50.31 52.65
WORLD 4.59 4.43 0.80 0.81 100.00 100.00
Coke & refined petroleum product shares% of Manufacturing % of GDP % of World Output
Intermediate Goods
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 10
2012 2017 2012 2017 2012 2017Austria 3.57 4.17 0.71 0.85 0.68 0.71Belgium 3.87 4.07 0.56 0.60 0.62 0.56Denmark 4.34 4.46 0.56 0.60 0.38 0.36Finland 3.29 3.37 0.68 0.71 0.37 0.34France 5.56 5.78 0.55 0.56 3.33 2.94Germany 4.77 4.88 1.04 1.04 8.77 7.63Greece 2.25 2.38 0.21 0.23 0.11 0.10Ireland 1.11 1.17 0.34 0.37 0.19 0.19Italy 4.50 4.81 0.74 0.82 3.50 3.19Luxembourg 13.55 14.28 0.81 0.90 0.09 0.09Netherlands 3.74 3.63 0.50 0.48 0.93 0.76Portugal 2.71 2.66 0.39 0.39 0.21 0.17Spain 3.81 3.80 0.51 0.55 1.62 1.44Sweden 2.57 2.52 0.47 0.47 0.53 0.46UK 3.93 4.04 0.43 0.42 2.71 2.45EU15 4.25 4.38 0.66 0.67 24.03 21.40
Australia 2.43 2.48 0.22 0.22 0.54 0.50Canada 4.35 4.32 0.50 0.49 1.75 1.60Japan 5.17 5.52 1.03 1.22 14.37 14.95New Zealand 0.57 0.62 0.07 0.08 0.02 0.03Norway 1.54 1.53 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.11Switzerland 2.42 2.32 0.46 0.45 0.57 0.51US 3.17 3.08 0.42 0.43 17.16 16.66
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 3.95 4.01 0.59 0.62 58.57 55.75
Bulgaria 1.26 1.50 0.19 0.24 0.02 0.02Cyprus 2.05 2.26 0.14 0.15 0.01 0.00Czech Republic 6.78 7.21 2.26 2.58 0.88 0.91Estonia 2.09 1.90 0.35 0.33 0.01 0.01Hungary 5.13 5.14 1.23 1.32 0.35 0.33Latvia 1.72 1.74 0.24 0.22 0.01 0.01Lithuania 4.46 4.75 0.96 1.12 0.08 0.09Malta 6.87 7.18 0.94 0.96 0.02 0.01Poland 6.27 6.15 0.56 0.55 1.57 1.51Romania 3.28 3.46 0.77 0.85 0.24 0.24Slovak Republic 3.52 4.33 1.01 1.29 0.23 0.27Slovenia 2.81 3.12 0.63 0.78 0.06 0.06EASTERN EUROPE (EU12) 5.28 5.45 0.78 0.82 3.47 3.48
Brazil 3.64 3.79 0.56 0.57 1.61 1.63Russia 11.54 11.40 1.86 2.03 4.45 4.79India 2.64 2.64 0.41 0.41 1.54 1.76China 3.66 3.32 1.24 1.13 16.84 18.08BRICs 4.06 3.77 1.08 1.03 24.44 26.26
Turkey 4.72 4.71 0.96 0.96 1.60 1.64Ukraine 1.03 0.96 0.19 0.22 0.05 0.06
Hong Kong 2.72 2.61 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03Indonesia 2.15 2.19 0.54 0.54 0.69 0.74Korea 3.52 3.76 1.11 1.26 3.25 3.58Malaysia 4.74 4.85 1.20 1.30 0.70 0.77Pakistan 0.58 0.64 0.11 0.12 0.04 0.05Philippines 5.49 6.39 1.19 1.38 0.50 0.61Singapore 1.64 1.59 0.46 0.43 0.24 0.22Taiwan 2.42 2.36 0.80 0.79 1.10 1.05Thailand 4.56 4.60 1.60 1.70 1.07 1.17Vietnam 3.79 3.91 0.90 0.94 0.22 0.25
Argentina 2.49 2.44 0.57 0.57 0.43 0.42Chile 2.84 2.84 0.40 0.38 0.18 0.17Colombia 4.04 4.29 0.54 0.57 0.29 0.31Ecuador 7.47 8.23 1.10 1.27 0.18 0.20Mexico 2.93 3.21 0.52 0.58 1.52 1.72Uruguay 1.63 1.77 0.24 0.26 0.02 0.02Venezuela 1.82 1.86 0.34 0.35 0.19 0.18
Bahrain 0.28 0.30 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00Egypt 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00Iraq 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Israel 2.19 2.10 0.32 0.31 0.15 0.14Kuwait 0.62 0.67 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.01Oman 0.34 0.36 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.01Qatar 0.29 0.29 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01Saudi Arabia 2.63 2.61 0.33 0.34 0.46 0.47South Africa 3.17 3.23 0.55 0.55 0.45 0.45United Arab Emirates 1.80 1.93 0.17 0.19 0.12 0.13
EMERGING MARKETS 3.74 3.64 0.85 0.86 41.43 44.25
WORLD 3.86 3.84 0.67 0.71 100.00 100.00
Rubber and plastics shares% of Manufacturing % of GDP % of World Output
Intermediate Goods
11
2012 2017 2012 2017 2012 2017Austria 4.65 4.13 0.93 0.85 0.92 0.73Belgium 4.36 4.30 0.64 0.63 0.72 0.61Denmark 2.57 2.49 0.33 0.34 0.23 0.20Finland 2.68 2.47 0.55 0.52 0.30 0.25France 3.56 3.41 0.35 0.33 2.21 1.78Germany 2.79 2.55 0.61 0.55 5.32 4.10Greece 1.57 1.92 0.15 0.19 0.08 0.08Ireland 0.40 0.38 0.12 0.12 0.07 0.06Italy 4.02 3.62 0.67 0.62 3.24 2.47Luxembourg 6.81 6.71 0.40 0.42 0.05 0.05Netherlands 1.91 1.91 0.26 0.25 0.49 0.41Portugal 8.47 8.31 1.23 1.23 0.67 0.54Spain 3.59 3.43 0.48 0.50 1.58 1.34Sweden 2.07 1.92 0.38 0.36 0.44 0.37UK 3.00 2.89 0.32 0.30 2.14 1.81EU15 3.19 2.97 0.49 0.46 18.67 14.96
Australia 4.80 5.07 0.44 0.45 1.11 1.05Canada 4.90 4.87 0.56 0.55 2.04 1.85Japan 2.76 2.51 0.55 0.55 7.94 7.00New Zealand 1.64 1.78 0.20 0.22 0.07 0.07Norway 3.53 3.44 0.31 0.32 0.29 0.26Switzerland 1.67 1.48 0.32 0.29 0.41 0.33US 1.84 1.91 0.24 0.27 10.32 10.66
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 2.66 2.53 0.39 0.39 40.85 36.19
Bulgaria 3.39 3.78 0.51 0.60 0.05 0.05Cyprus 6.66 6.49 0.44 0.43 0.02 0.01Czech Republic 5.00 5.01 1.67 1.80 0.67 0.65Estonia 3.59 3.81 0.61 0.66 0.03 0.03Hungary 3.11 2.85 0.75 0.74 0.22 0.19Latvia 5.60 6.42 0.78 0.81 0.04 0.04Lithuania 4.61 5.15 1.00 1.21 0.08 0.11Malta 2.27 2.48 0.31 0.33 0.01 0.01Poland 6.16 5.99 0.55 0.54 1.60 1.51Romania 0.69 0.69 0.16 0.17 0.05 0.05Slovak Republic 2.79 3.08 0.80 0.92 0.19 0.20Slovenia 6.21 6.75 1.40 1.68 0.15 0.14EASTERN EUROPE (EU12) 4.55 4.55 0.67 0.69 3.10 2.99
Brazil 3.55 3.48 0.55 0.53 1.63 1.54Russia 6.95 7.05 1.12 1.26 2.78 3.05India 4.16 4.16 0.64 0.64 2.52 2.85China 6.82 6.39 2.31 2.18 32.51 35.77BRICs 6.33 6.03 1.68 1.65 39.43 43.21
Turkey 6.03 6.83 1.22 1.40 2.09 2.43Ukraine 14.91 14.74 2.78 3.40 0.76 0.89
Hong Kong 1.85 1.87 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02Indonesia 2.60 2.69 0.65 0.66 0.85 0.93Korea 2.58 2.52 0.82 0.84 2.47 2.47Malaysia 3.14 2.84 0.79 0.76 0.47 0.46Pakistan 2.89 2.93 0.55 0.57 0.23 0.24Philippines 3.26 3.61 0.71 0.78 0.31 0.35Singapore 1.07 1.01 0.30 0.28 0.16 0.15Taiwan 1.58 1.57 0.52 0.53 0.73 0.71Thailand 3.64 3.52 1.28 1.30 0.88 0.92Vietnam 6.09 6.02 1.45 1.45 0.36 0.40
Argentina 2.73 2.96 0.62 0.69 0.49 0.53Chile 0.96 0.90 0.13 0.12 0.06 0.06Colombia 8.40 9.09 1.12 1.20 0.63 0.67Ecuador 4.33 4.68 0.64 0.72 0.10 0.11Mexico 5.58 5.98 0.98 1.08 3.01 3.30Uruguay 1.08 0.98 0.16 0.15 0.01 0.01Venezuela 5.42 5.49 1.01 1.02 0.58 0.55
Bahrain 0.38 0.37 0.05 0.04 0.00 0.00Egypt 0.91 0.88 0.15 0.15 0.06 0.06Iraq 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Israel 0.80 0.79 0.11 0.12 0.05 0.05Kuwait 1.89 1.83 0.11 0.11 0.03 0.03Oman 1.48 1.39 0.14 0.14 0.02 0.02Qatar 0.11 0.13 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00Saudi Arabia 8.46 7.93 1.06 1.03 1.51 1.47South Africa 2.74 2.75 0.47 0.47 0.40 0.39United Arab Emirates 2.93 2.81 0.28 0.27 0.20 0.19
EMERGING MARKETS 5.15 5.11 1.17 1.21 59.15 63.81
WORLD 3.73 3.73 0.65 0.69 100.00 100.00
Non-metallic minerals shares% of Manufacturing % of GDP % of World Output
Intermediate Goods
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 12
Key Macro Drivers Intermediate goods production is essentially driven by
the activities of sectors further downstream, for
example motor vehicles in the case of rubber and
plastic products, construction in the case of non-
metallic mineral and wood products, and engineering-
type activities in the case of machinery installers.
Growth in demand for all of these outputs, and for
paper products, will be depressed in the immediate
future as fiscal and financial difficulties weigh on
global demand in general and activity in sectors with
high capital requirements in particular.
Producers of petroleum and coal products are also
affected by trends in industrial activity more generally,
but demand is if anything less vulnerable to swings in
the economic cycle than in the case of the sectors
above.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16% year
Intermediate Goods output (LHS)
Source: Oxford Economics
Emerging markets: Intermediate goods
Forecast
Total fixed investment
(RHS)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
% year
Intermediate Goods output
(LHS)
Source: Oxford Economics
Developed countries: Intermediate goods
Forecast
Total fixed investment (RHS)
% year
Intermediate Goods40%
Other manu- facturing sectors
60%
Intermediate goods - 2012Share of world manufacturing (2005 US$bn)
Source: Oxford Economics
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Intermediate goods output
Source: Oxford Economics
Developed countries: Intermediate goods and investment goods
Forecast
Investment goodsoutput
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Intermediate goods output
Source: Oxford Economics
Emerging markets: Intermediate goods and investment goods
Forecast
Investment goods output
Intermediate Goods
13
Latest Monthly Trends Activity in the Japanese intermediate goods sector has
benefited from the improvement in activity. The pick-up in
construction activity has boosted production of both non-
metallic minerals and wood. Rubber & plastic goods production
has been supported by the high level of vehicle production.
Growth in the least cyclical of the sectors, fuel, remains muted
while paper output remains in long term decline.
In Western Europe, with a few exceptions, the trend has
generally been one of decline in March, reflecting the weak
state of industrial activity at present. The latest data for the US
also show a lacklustre trend developing with production across
all intermediate goods sectors declining in April.
Looking ahead, prospects in Japan are possibly the most
promising. The pick-up in industrial activity this year should
boost demand for intermediate goods. In contrast, weak end-
use demand in Western Europe will continue to weigh on raw
material demand. Near-term prospects for US output are
somewhere between the two given industrial and construction
activity is expected to grow, albeit constrained by fiscal
tightening.
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Source: Oxford Economics
% year
Intermediate goods: Output growth - Developed
Big 4, Europe
ForecastUS
Japan
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Source: Oxford Economics
% year
Big 4, Europe
US
Forecast
Japan
Rubber & plastics: Output growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Source: Oxford Economics
% year
Japan
US
Forecast
Big 4, Europe
Paper, printing & publishing: Output growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Source: Oxford Economics
% yearBig 4,
Europe
US
ForecastJapan
Fuel: Output growth
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Source: Oxford Economics
% year
Big 4, Europe
US
Forecast
Japan
Non-metallic minerals: Output growth
Intermediate Goods
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 14
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Source: Oxford Economics
% year
Japan
US
ForecastBig 4, Europe
Wood & wood products: Output growth
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12
2005=100
Paper
Total
Source: Haver Analytics
New orders: German intermediate goods
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12
2005=100
Paper
Source: Haver Analytics
New orders: Italian intermediate goods
Total
3 month moving average
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Source: Haver Analytics
Intermediate goods: US Orders
Petroleum products (RHS)
US$ Paper (LHS)
Non-metallic minerals (LHS)
Rubber & plastics (LHS)
US$
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12
% year
US
UK
Source: Haver Analytics
Rubber and plastics: Prices
Germany
75
85
95
105
115
125
May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12
New orders: French intermediate goods
Source: Haver Analytics
2005=100
Total
Paper
Intermediate Goods
15
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12
% year
US
UK
Source: Haver Analytics
Non-metallic minerals: Prices
Germany
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12
% year
US
UK
Source: Haver Analytics
Fuel: Prices
Germany
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12
% year
USUK
Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics
Pulp, paper & printing: Prices
Germany
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12
% year
US
UK
Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics
Wood: Prices
Germany
Index % change Index % change Index % change Index % change Index % change Index % changeMar 107.9 1.7 97.6 9.0 105.0 -2.4 86.2 -6.8 83.2 -6.1 84.5 -2.8Apr 108.0 3.0 97.9 7.6 103.8 -3.8 85.5 -7.1 81.3 -9.0 83.7 -5.1May 107.5 2.5 95.1 0.9 104.6 -3.2 84.3 -9.0 82.6 -4.0 85.6 -1.5Jun 107.3 2.2 95.9 -0.1 103.8 -2.9 84.0 -7.3 81.0 -6.3 80.8 -6.7Jul 107.2 1.5 95.4 0.7 104.7 -3.2 84.9 -6.0 81.8 -5.5 81.9 -6.5Aug 106.8 0.9 93.6 -1.6 103.5 -1.8 86.6 -3.5 86.5 -3.4 80.9 -7.2Sep 106.8 0.1 91.4 -2.3 103.4 -0.2 84.4 -4.8 81.8 -3.3 80.3 -8.1Oct 107.7 0.9 91.5 -3.0 103.3 -1.2 82.9 -5.8 79.4 -6.5 78.4 -9.3Nov 108.7 1.6 90.8 -3.4 102.1 -1.6 82.8 -7.7 78.2 -8.6 79.5 -6.6Dec 109.5 1.5 92.9 -0.8 103.4 1.2 83.5 -4.9 78.4 -9.5 81.8 -2.7
2013Jan 109.8 1.3 92.8 -1.8 102.4 -1.3 82.5 -6.0 77.8 -7.6 78.3 -6.2Feb 110.4 1.5 93.7 -0.9 102.0 -0.5 84.0 1.4 78.2 -3.9 79.2 -4.6Mar 109.7 1.6 97.4 -0.3 102.7 -2.2 82.7 -4.0 76.7 -7.8 79.7 -5.8
Industry Output - Intermediate GoodsValue Added Index (2005=100) and year-on-year % changes, seasonally adjusted
USA Japan Germany France Italy UK
Intermediate Goods
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 16
Forecast in Detail – Europe, Middle East & Africa
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Russia
Turkey
Romania
Source: Oxford Economics
Intermediate goods: Output
Forecast
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Hungary
Poland
Czech Republic
Source: Oxford Economics
Intermediate goods: Output
Forecast
Slovakia
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Spain
Sweden
Belgium
Source: Oxford Economics
Intermediate goods: Output
Forecast
Netherlands
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% yearCoke & refined
petroleum products
Rubber & plastics
Non-metallic minerals
Source: Oxford Economics
EU15: Intermediate goods output growth
Forecast
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Italy
UKGermany
Source: Oxford Economics
Intermediate goods: Output
Forecast
France
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Source: Oxford Economics
EU15: Intermediate goods output growth
Forecast
Intermediate Goods
17
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
AUSTRIACoke & refined petroleum 19 168.4 158.1 160.7 163.6 164.9 167.1% change y-o-y -5.5 -6.1 1.6 1.8 0.8 1.3 0.6 -8.7 7.3 7.3 -0.2 1.1
Non-metallic minerals 23 99.1 90.4 92.3 94.4 95.3 96.7% change y-o-y 4.9 -8.7 2.1 2.2 1.0 1.5 0.7 -0.9 2.3 -1.8 -0.5 1.0
Rubber & plastics 22 122.0 144.7 148.8 152.9 154.3 156.5% change y-o-y -1.1 18.6 2.8 2.7 0.9 1.4 2.9 2.8 3.6 0.6 5.1 1.1
TOTAL see above 116.5 115.8 118.6 121.2 122.4 124.2% change y-o-y -1.5 -0.6 2.4 2.2 1.0 1.5 3.4 1.9 4.7 0.4 1.3 1.1
BELGIUMCoke & refined petroleum 19 80.0 81.2 82.0 82.4 82.8 83.1% change y-o-y 7.0 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.6 2.6 -6.5 -3.2 0.8 0.4
Non-metallic minerals 23 83.4 77.6 79.6 82.4 84.6 86.3% change y-o-y -6.9 -6.9 2.5 3.6 2.6 2.1 5.2 0.8 1.0 -4.8 0.7 1.9
Rubber & plastics 22 90.0 89.3 92.6 95.8 97.8 99.7% change y-o-y -0.6 -0.8 3.7 3.4 2.1 2.0 4.8 1.7 1.2 -2.9 2.1 1.9
TOTAL see above 86.0 85.5 87.3 89.5 91.1 92.7% change y-o-y -3.5 -0.6 2.1 2.5 1.8 1.7 4.8 2.9 0.4 -2.7 1.5 1.3
DENMARKCoke & refined petroleum 19 124.4 135.3 138.7 142.7 145.7 148.8% change y-o-y 9.6 8.8 2.5 2.8 2.2 2.1 - 0.1 0.2 3.6 3.6 2.1
Non-metallic minerals 23 84.5 85.3 87.6 90.2 91.6 93.1% change y-o-y -2.7 0.9 2.7 3.0 1.6 1.6 - -2.9 6.3 -5.5 1.9 1.4
Rubber & plastics 22 78.7 81.8 84.6 87.9 90.0 92.1% change y-o-y -3.3 3.9 3.4 3.9 2.5 2.3 - 0.9 2.6 -6.0 3.2 2.3
TOTAL see above 87.2 87.3 90.3 93.7 95.9 98.0% change y-o-y -0.7 0.1 3.4 3.8 2.4 2.2 - -0.4 2.8 -4.5 2.4 2.1
FINLANDCoke & refined petroleum 19 85.0 88.2 89.7 91.9 94.5 97.6% change y-o-y -3.0 3.7 1.7 2.5 2.9 3.2 -1.2 6.2 -7.9 -4.9 2.8 3.7
Non-metallic minerals 23 82.8 78.2 77.9 79.9 82.2 84.7% change y-o-y -8.7 -5.6 -0.3 2.6 2.9 3.0 4.0 11.0 6.5 -7.0 0.4 2.5
Rubber & plastics 22 117.7 120.6 122.9 126.1 129.7 133.7% change y-o-y 1.6 2.4 1.9 2.6 2.9 3.1 10.1 9.1 7.3 -0.3 2.6 3.6
TOTAL see above 94.5 94.2 96.4 99.7 103.2 107.0% change y-o-y -1.8 -0.3 2.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 7.5 8.1 4.3 -4.3 2.5 3.3
FRANCECoke & refined petroleum 19 56.8 57.5 57.5 57.5 57.6 57.8% change y-o-y -14.0 1.3 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 7.0 -3.8 -14.8 0.3 0.2
Non-metallic minerals 23 88.3 83.9 84.5 85.7 86.6 87.6% change y-o-y -13.3 -4.9 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.8 2.9 -3.9 -0.2 1.0
Rubber & plastics 22 89.6 88.3 90.2 93.1 95.1 96.5% change y-o-y -6.0 -1.4 2.2 3.2 2.1 1.5 3.7 5.1 2.4 -2.5 1.5 1.4
TOTAL see above 90.2 88.4 89.5 91.3 92.9 94.4% change y-o-y -5.9 -1.9 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 3.2 3.7 1.3 -2.9 0.9 1.3
GERMANYCoke & refined petroleum 19 87.2 84.8 85.0 84.1 84.0 84.3% change y-o-y 1.4 -2.7 0.2 -1.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.6 0.8 2.7 -2.8 -0.7 0.7
Non-metallic minerals 23 101.7 97.0 97.1 96.4 96.1 96.4% change y-o-y -3.8 -4.6 0.1 -0.8 -0.2 0.2 -1.4 -2.9 0.7 -1.7 -1.1 0.4
Rubber & plastics 22 108.8 107.1 109.5 112.1 114.5 115.6% change y-o-y -1.4 -1.6 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.0 0.2 1.5 3.6 -0.8 1.2 0.9
TOTAL see above 111.6 109.4 111.1 112.8 114.1 115.2% change y-o-y -1.7 -1.9 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.7 4.2 -0.7 0.6 1.0
Europe, Middle East and Africa: Intermediate goodsNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24
Detailed outputValue Added Index, 2005=100
Average 5 year % growth
Intermediate Goods
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 18
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
GREECECoke & refined petroleum 19 123.3 119.3 120.2 120.9 122.9 125.7% change y-o-y 27.5 -3.2 0.8 0.6 1.6 2.3 7.0 0.9 -6.2 3.9 0.4 0.9
Non-metallic minerals 23 25.8 27.1 28.6 30.1 31.2 32.5% change y-o-y -28.6 5.1 5.6 5.1 3.8 4.2 3.3 -7.3 0.5 -23.3 4.8 4.2
Rubber & plastics 22 74.4 73.6 74.2 75.6 78.6 81.2% change y-o-y -7.5 -1.1 0.8 1.9 3.9 3.4 -0.9 0.0 1.6 -6.0 1.8 1.9
TOTAL see above 81.8 79.5 81.4 83.2 85.4 87.7% change y-o-y -0.5 -2.8 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.7 1.6 1.4 -1.0 -3.6 1.4 2.3
IRELANDCoke & refined petroleum 19 169.8 192.1 200.4 203.9 209.0 215.2% change y-o-y 7.7 13.1 4.4 1.7 2.5 2.9 6.1 9.1 -23.6 9.9 4.8 4.3
Non-metallic minerals 23 47.8 44.0 46.1 47.7 49.4 51.4% change y-o-y -12.5 -7.8 4.8 3.3 3.6 4.1 11.6 7.1 3.5 -15.2 1.5 5.1
Rubber & plastics 22 96.8 96.2 101.5 106.7 111.2 115.0% change y-o-y -2.7 -0.6 5.5 5.1 4.2 3.5 4.6 6.4 0.8 -2.4 3.5 4.6
TOTAL see above 159.0 176.9 183.1 187.3 193.2 199.9% change y-o-y -0.3 11.3 3.5 2.3 3.1 3.5 21.3 3.5 0.8 7.0 4.7 4.5
ITALYCoke & refined petroleum 19 87.2 78.8 79.9 80.6 81.2 81.9% change y-o-y -3.3 -9.6 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.5 0.1 2.4 -2.9 -1.3 0.8
Non-metallic minerals 23 69.0 60.8 61.5 62.8 63.9 64.6% change y-o-y -7.6 -11.8 1.0 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.8 3.2 0.3 -7.1 -1.3 0.8
Rubber & plastics 22 87.6 86.5 88.4 92.8 95.7 97.7% change y-o-y -5.1 -1.3 2.3 5.0 3.1 2.1 3.8 1.0 1.4 -4.1 2.2 1.4
TOTAL see above 86.2 81.6 82.8 85.6 88.1 89.8% change y-o-y -6.4 -5.4 1.5 3.3 2.9 1.9 -1.1 0.7 2.0 -4.1 0.8 1.1
LUXEMBOURGCoke & refined petroleum 19 46.6 51.2 52.7 53.8 54.9 55.9% change y-o-y -1.2 9.9 2.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 4.6 -9.9 -12.2 3.7 1.4
Non-metallic minerals 23 83.9 84.5 88.3 92.9 96.9 100.3% change y-o-y 3.3 0.7 4.5 5.2 4.3 3.6 - - 10.7 -5.4 3.6 2.9
Rubber & plastics 22 83.7 89.8 94.9 99.7 103.4 107.0% change y-o-y 3.8 7.3 5.7 5.0 3.7 3.5 8.8 5.9 10.9 -6.0 5.0 2.9
TOTAL see above 63.6 68.2 70.9 73.5 75.7 77.7% change y-o-y 1.4 7.2 4.1 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.2 5.2 -1.3 -8.5 4.1 2.0
NETHERLANDSCoke & refined petroleum 19 90.5 93.5 93.4 94.2 95.4 96.9% change y-o-y -0.1 3.4 -0.1 0.8 1.3 1.5 5.5 1.5 2.6 -2.9 1.4 1.8
Non-metallic minerals 23 70.5 69.8 69.6 70.0 70.9 72.0% change y-o-y -5.0 -1.0 -0.2 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.1 2.2 2.4 -8.7 0.4 1.5
Rubber & plastics 22 116.8 110.8 111.2 112.4 113.9 115.5% change y-o-y -2.3 -5.2 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.3 3.7 3.5 0.3 -0.2 1.6
TOTAL see above 108.6 107.8 107.7 108.7 110.2 111.7% change y-o-y 3.3 -0.7 -0.1 1.0 1.3 1.4 3.2 3.9 3.4 -0.2 0.6 1.5
PORTUGALCoke & refined petroleum 19 92.2 93.2 93.2 94.2 95.1 95.5% change y-o-y 3.9 1.1 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 -1.1 3.7 3.1 -1.2 0.7 0.5
Non-metallic minerals 23 81.2 76.9 76.7 77.5 79.3 81.1% change y-o-y -11.1 -5.3 -0.2 1.1 2.3 2.3 4.7 4.7 0.9 -5.0 0.0 2.1
Rubber & plastics 22 129.6 123.9 123.4 124.8 127.2 129.5% change y-o-y 11.0 -4.4 -0.4 1.1 2.0 1.8 7.5 -0.5 1.0 3.8 0.0 1.5
TOTAL see above 114.7 110.8 110.4 111.1 112.7 114.1% change y-o-y -1.5 -3.4 -0.3 0.6 1.4 1.3 4.8 5.5 2.6 1.2 -0.1 1.1
Europe, Middle East and Africa: Intermediate goods Detailed outputNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24 Value Added Index, 2005=100
Average 5 year % growth
Intermediate Goods
19
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
SPAINCoke & refined petroleum 19 115.7 112.8 113.3 115.6 119.1 121.8% change y-o-y 7.9 -2.5 0.4 2.0 3.0 2.3 -1.5 2.2 2.2 3.6 1.0 1.8
Non-metallic minerals 23 49.5 46.3 46.4 47.4 49.4 51.5% change y-o-y -13.8 -6.3 0.2 2.1 4.3 4.3 3.3 5.9 0.9 -13.0 0.8 3.4
Rubber & plastics 22 89.2 88.1 88.1 89.9 93.5 97.1% change y-o-y -6.2 -1.3 0.0 2.1 4.0 3.8 4.2 9.2 1.2 -2.4 1.7 2.8
TOTAL see above 91.2 88.1 88.5 90.4 93.8 97.0% change y-o-y -0.2 -3.5 0.5 2.2 3.7 3.5 2.8 5.1 1.4 -1.9 1.2 2.6
SWEDENCoke & refined petroleum 19 119.4 115.8 121.1 125.2 128.7 132.4% change y-o-y 9.3 -2.9 4.5 3.4 2.8 2.9 3.0 0.6 1.1 6.0 2.1 2.1
Non-metallic minerals 23 123.3 114.2 117.2 120.1 122.7 125.4% change y-o-y -0.5 -7.4 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.2 1.2 6.6 5.6 1.2 0.4 1.5
Rubber & plastics 22 116.7 112.2 115.4 119.8 122.8 125.8% change y-o-y -7.0 -3.8 2.8 3.8 2.5 2.4 8.2 1.3 4.7 0.1 1.5 1.7
TOTAL see above 104.3 100.4 102.6 105.7 108.3 110.6% change y-o-y -3.9 -3.7 2.2 3.0 2.5 2.1 6.8 5.8 5.7 -1.4 1.2 1.4
UNITED KINGDOMCoke & refined petroleum 19 78.4 79.5 81.9 83.1 84.3 85.3% change y-o-y -9.2 1.3 3.1 1.4 1.5 1.2 3.6 -2.3 -1.8 -3.5 1.7 1.4
Non-metallic minerals 23 78.2 72.9 75.3 77.5 79.4 81.2% change y-o-y -13.7 -6.7 3.3 2.9 2.4 2.3 3.3 0.4 2.8 -5.6 0.8 2.2
Rubber & plastics 22 83.6 80.6 84.1 88.1 91.0 92.6% change y-o-y 1.6 -3.6 4.3 4.8 3.2 1.8 5.5 -1.1 0.2 -4.1 2.1 1.8
TOTAL see above 85.1 84.6 87.0 89.4 91.3 92.8% change y-o-y -1.9 -0.6 2.8 2.8 2.1 1.7 4.1 -0.3 0.8 -3.8 1.7 1.7
EU15Coke & refined petroleum 19 91.8 89.9 90.6 91.5 92.9 94.2% change y-o-y 2.2 -2.1 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.9 -0.2 -1.5 0.5 1.3
Non-metallic minerals 23 77.3 72.2 73.0 74.0 75.1 76.2% change y-o-y -8.1 -6.6 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.5 -5.5 -0.3 1.4
Rubber & plastics 22 94.5 93.4 95.6 98.6 101.1 102.8% change y-o-y -2.7 -1.2 2.3 3.2 2.5 1.7 3.3 2.1 2.4 -2.1 1.7 1.5
TOTAL see above 96.4 94.6 96.2 98.3 100.2 102.0% change y-o-y -2.7 -1.8 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.5 1.9 2.6 -1.8 1.1 1.5
BULGARIACoke & refined petroleum 19 85.4 88.5 93.1 97.8 102.2 107.7% change y-o-y 2.0 3.7 5.2 5.0 4.5 5.3 - 15.1 2.3 -5.7 4.8 5.8
Non-metallic minerals 23 146.9 170.4 178.9 187.2 194.0 203.0% change y-o-y 2.0 16.0 5.0 4.6 3.6 4.6 - 8.0 16.1 1.5 6.7 5.5
Rubber & plastics 22 68.8 81.3 85.2 89.9 95.1 101.7% change y-o-y 2.0 18.1 4.8 5.6 5.8 7.0 - 3.3 10.2 -9.5 8.1 6.4
TOTAL see above 73.1 76.4 80.9 85.0 89.0 93.8% change y-o-y 2.0 4.4 5.9 5.1 4.7 5.3 - 4.3 4.6 -7.8 5.1 5.4
CYPRUSCoke & refined petroleum 19 110.4 124.6 117.2 116.6 115.9 117.5% change y-o-y 11.5 12.9 -6.0 -0.5 -0.6 1.4 - -3.2 -5.9 3.0 1.3 2.3
-Non-metallic minerals 23 58.2 47.5 44.6 44.4 44.7 46.2 -% change y-o-y -21.0 -18.4 -6.2 -0.4 0.6 3.4 - 0.6 -0.7 -9.8 -4.5 3.9
-Rubber & plastics 22 75.4 70.2 65.7 65.5 65.7 67.6 -% change y-o-y -13.3 -6.9 -6.4 -0.4 0.3 2.9 - 0.2 1.6 -5.5 -2.2 3.3
-TOTAL see above 66.0 56.1 52.8 52.7 52.7 54.1 -% change y-o-y -12.4 -15.0 -5.9 -0.2 0.1 2.6 - 0.1 -4.4 -7.1 -3.9 3.2
Europe, Middle East and Africa: Intermediate goodsNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24 Value Added Index, 2005=100
Average 5 year % growth
Detailed output
Intermediate Goods
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 20
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
CZECH REPUBLICCoke & refined petroleum 19 118.3 119.8 125.9 132.9 139.3 145.5% change y-o-y 1.8 1.2 5.1 5.5 4.9 4.4 820.6 -2.3 11.3 3.3 4.2 3.4
Non-metallic minerals 23 102.1 102.6 107.6 113.1 117.6 122.0% change y-o-y -3.2 0.4 4.9 5.1 3.9 3.8 791.7 7.1 8.4 -3.0 3.6 3.0
Rubber & plastics 22 155.7 157.9 165.3 175.4 186.1 197.3% change y-o-y -1.2 1.4 4.7 6.1 6.1 6.1 696.2 12.7 19.2 2.1 4.9 3.9
TOTAL see above 131.3 132.1 138.9 147.3 154.8 162.2% change y-o-y 0.5 0.6 5.1 6.0 5.1 4.7 779.4 6.2 11.6 1.3 4.3 3.3
ESTONIACoke & refined petroleum 19 125.3 132.5 137.9 142.9 145.8 148.3% change y-o-y 5.3 5.8 4.1 3.6 2.0 1.7 - -20.0 7.2 -2.3 3.4 1.4
Non-metallic minerals 23 77.0 81.4 87.2 93.1 98.0 103.2% change y-o-y -2.0 5.7 7.2 6.7 5.3 5.2 - 2.3 13.7 -9.7 6.0 4.4
Rubber & plastics 22 96.4 91.8 96.4 101.6 106.1 110.9% change y-o-y -7.7 -4.8 5.0 5.4 4.4 4.5 - 25.6 12.5 -6.4 2.8 4.2
TOTAL see above 119.4 126.7 133.0 141.4 149.3 157.3% change y-o-y -3.8 6.0 5.0 6.3 5.6 5.4 - 9.1 10.5 -0.3 5.7 4.8
HUNGARYCoke & refined petroleum 19 71.3 71.6 72.4 74.0 75.2 77.6% change y-o-y -9.5 0.3 1.1 2.3 1.5 3.3 6.0 -1.9 3.4 -6.0 1.7 1.8
Non-metallic minerals 23 84.5 81.2 80.5 83.0 85.3 89.7% change y-o-y -4.9 -3.9 -0.8 3.1 2.8 5.1 6.0 2.1 7.8 -7.6 1.2 3.1
Rubber & plastics 22 128.4 129.7 132.3 137.2 141.8 148.9% change y-o-y 4.6 1.0 2.0 3.7 3.3 5.0 8.9 8.7 8.4 0.4 3.0 2.7
TOTAL see above 90.3 89.5 91.5 95.7 99.4 104.5% change y-o-y -0.4 -0.9 2.2 4.6 3.9 5.1 6.8 6.3 6.6 -4.9 3.0 3.4
LATVIACoke & refined petroleum 19 26.2 22.9 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.2% change y-o-y 4.1 -12.6 5.0 2.0 1.7 0.8 - - 60.7 -10.0 -0.8 0.5
Non-metallic minerals 23 74.5 78.3 84.7 89.0 93.4 97.4% change y-o-y 4.7 5.1 8.2 5.1 5.0 4.3 - - 7.8 -5.0 5.5 3.5
Rubber & plastics 22 90.1 87.9 93.2 96.7 100.7 104.2% change y-o-y -3.5 -2.4 6.0 3.8 4.0 3.6 - - 20.7 -7.5 3.0 3.3
TOTAL see above 126.3 116.4 123.2 129.4 135.7 139.7% change y-o-y 14.7 -7.9 5.8 5.1 4.8 3.0 - - 4.5 4.1 2.0 2.3
LITHUANIACoke & refined petroleum 19 46.1 43.8 47.2 50.2 52.6 54.4% change y-o-y -32.4 -5.1 7.9 6.3 4.8 3.4 - 14.4 -1.7 -6.1 3.4 1.5
Non-metallic minerals 23 85.1 94.0 104.5 114.4 123.7 132.4% change y-o-y 1.8 10.5 11.1 9.5 8.1 7.0 - 2.2 22.6 -9.1 9.3 4.5
Rubber & plastics 22 153.3 169.7 184.8 199.8 214.1 227.7% change y-o-y 5.9 10.6 8.9 8.1 7.2 6.3 - 74.9 13.5 12.4 8.2 4.3
TOTAL see above 105.1 109.6 119.3 129.1 138.4 146.8% change y-o-y -1.3 4.3 8.8 8.3 7.2 6.1 - 11.8 11.3 -0.2 6.9 4.0
MALTACoke & refined petroleum 19 69.9 72.7 74.0 73.4 73.1 73.3% change y-o-y -11.6 4.1 1.7 -0.8 -0.4 0.2 - -20.1 -31.0 -4.2 1.0 1.1
-Non-metallic minerals 23 148.2 165.1 167.4 168.2 169.2 170.0% change y-o-y 10.6 11.4 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 - -3.1 -9.3 0.0 2.8 1.1
-Rubber & plastics 22 111.8 112.1 115.1 118.8 121.0 122.8% change y-o-y -11.1 0.3 2.7 3.3 1.8 1.5 - 5.0 2.9 -4.0 1.9 1.8
-TOTAL see above 101.6 103.7 104.2 105.1 106.5 108.1% change y-o-y 4.7 2.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.5 - 0.7 2.7 -2.5 1.2 1.8
Average 5 year % growthValue Added Index, 2005=100
Europe, Middle East and Africa: Intermediate goods Detailed outputNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24
Intermediate Goods
21
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
POLANDCoke & refined petroleum 19 121.0 120.2 123.6 125.1 126.9 127.9% change y-o-y -2.2 -0.7 2.8 1.2 1.4 0.8 6.2 -0.8 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.9
Non-metallic minerals 23 178.4 172.7 182.9 190.6 199.5 208.1% change y-o-y -5.5 -3.2 5.9 4.2 4.7 4.3 10.9 -1.5 11.9 5.1 3.1 3.9
Rubber & plastics 22 186.2 190.5 197.8 203.6 211.2 218.8% change y-o-y -0.6 2.3 3.8 2.9 3.7 3.6 20.2 13.8 14.9 7.2 3.3 3.7
TOTAL see above 175.7 176.2 183.4 190.0 197.9 205.3% change y-o-y 1.2 0.3 4.1 3.6 4.2 3.8 11.5 3.9 10.8 6.0 3.2 3.7
ROMANIACoke & refined petroleum 19 63.1 53.5 53.7 54.7 56.2 58.3% change y-o-y -7.3 -15.2 0.5 1.7 2.9 3.6 - 7.8 -13.8 -6.6 -1.6 3.0
Non-metallic minerals 23 115.2 121.6 119.8 122.9 128.0 135.0% change y-o-y -7.5 5.5 -1.5 2.5 4.2 5.4 - -8.0 4.9 -3.5 3.2 4.4
Rubber & plastics 22 190.8 204.8 207.6 214.1 224.3 236.3% change y-o-y -3.0 7.4 1.4 3.1 4.7 5.4 - 4.9 7.1 4.7 4.4 3.9
TOTAL see above 129.7 141.5 144.6 150.5 158.3 166.4% change y-o-y -2.2 9.1 2.2 4.1 5.2 5.1 - -2.2 -4.0 3.0 5.1 4.3
SLOVAK REPUBLICCoke & refined petroleum 19 106.0 113.7 118.9 125.4 132.1 136.3% change y-o-y -7.6 7.2 4.6 5.4 5.4 3.2 - - 6.6 0.2 5.2 2.3
Non-metallic minerals 23 86.3 84.5 90.6 97.7 105.3 111.5% change y-o-y 4.9 -2.1 7.2 7.9 7.8 5.9 - - 9.2 -3.7 5.3 3.6
Rubber & plastics 22 133.5 140.0 155.1 171.6 184.1 192.1% change y-o-y 6.1 4.8 10.8 10.7 7.3 4.4 - - 17.5 1.3 7.6 2.6
TOTAL see above 123.4 125.4 132.1 140.0 147.3 152.3% change y-o-y 6.0 1.6 5.3 6.0 5.2 3.4 - - 10.7 2.2 4.3 2.7
SLOVENIACoke & refined petroleum 19 31.0 30.8 31.2 32.4 33.8 35.2% change y-o-y -49.3 -0.6 1.3 3.7 4.4 4.0 - -10.1 -2.8 -47.2 2.5 2.1
Non-metallic minerals 23 93.4 88.3 91.6 97.2 103.8 110.8% change y-o-y -0.6 -5.5 3.8 6.1 6.8 6.7 - 23.5 4.5 -0.6 3.5 3.4
Rubber & plastics 22 115.2 107.0 114.7 124.9 132.8 139.7% change y-o-y -4.2 -7.1 7.2 8.9 6.3 5.2 - 26.3 14.9 3.1 3.9 2.4
TOTAL see above 103.5 101.6 103.1 107.1 111.5 116.4% change y-o-y -3.4 -1.9 1.5 3.9 4.2 4.4 - -3.9 2.5 -10.2 2.4 2.5
EASTERN EUROPE (EU12)Coke & refined petroleum 19 83.8 83.6 86.3 88.9 91.4 93.9% change y-o-y -7.5 -0.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.7 25.9 -1.3 -0.7 -7.1 2.3 2.3
Non-metallic minerals 23 126.5 124.4 130.9 137.2 143.7 150.3% change y-o-y -3.9 -1.6 5.2 4.8 4.8 4.6 21.4 2.6 9.8 -0.1 3.5 3.7
Rubber & plastics 22 155.2 159.1 165.9 173.6 181.9 190.4% change y-o-y -0.1 2.5 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.7 27.3 11.6 14.3 4.1 4.2 3.6
TOTAL see above 129.9 131.4 136.9 143.3 150.0 156.4% change y-o-y 0.9 1.2 4.1 4.7 4.7 4.3 26.4 3.5 7.4 1.5 3.8 3.6
NACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24 Value Added Index, 2005=100
Europe, Middle East and Africa: Intermediate goods Detailed output
Average 5 year % growth
Intermediate Goods
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 22
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
NORWAYCoke & refined petroleum 19 91.4 94.2 98.2 101.5 104.9 108.0% change y-o-y -7.0 3.1 4.3 3.4 3.3 3.0 17.3 -16.0 11.4 -0.6 3.4 2.4
Non-metallic minerals 23 87.1 90.3 93.1 94.7 96.2 97.6% change y-o-y -2.1 3.7 3.1 1.7 1.6 1.5 4.5 -0.6 3.3 -4.1 2.3 1.2
Rubber & plastics 22 83.7 86.1 88.8 91.1 93.6 96.0% change y-o-y -2.1 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.6 4.6 -4.4 -0.2 -4.1 2.8 2.0
TOTAL see above 96.4 98.0 101.9 105.2 108.4 111.3% change y-o-y -3.0 1.6 4.0 3.2 3.0 2.7 1.2 0.1 4.0 -1.7 2.9 2.2
RUSSIACoke & refined petroleum 19 103.9 105.9 111.1 116.0 121.4 127.2% change y-o-y -5.3 2.0 4.9 4.5 4.6 4.7 - 4.2 0.4 0.0 4.1 4.6
Non-metallic minerals 23 112.6 115.9 124.7 134.2 142.9 151.9% change y-o-y 20.2 2.9 7.6 7.6 6.5 6.3 - -5.9 5.4 -0.8 6.2 5.9
Rubber & plastics 22 210.7 231.5 245.4 255.0 265.3 276.8% change y-o-y 13.8 9.9 6.0 3.9 4.1 4.3 - 3.8 12.1 8.0 5.6 4.3
TOTAL see above 116.4 123.4 131.8 140.7 149.5 158.0% change y-o-y 4.8 6.0 6.8 6.8 6.2 5.7 - 8.5 4.6 0.3 6.3 5.1
SWITZERLANDCoke & refined petroleum 19 119.5 123.1 126.1 126.9 127.5 128.1% change y-o-y -2.7 3.0 2.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 5.4 8.3 5.5 1.3 1.4 0.5
Non-metallic minerals 23 80.6 78.4 79.1 79.7 80.2 80.4% change y-o-y -4.7 -2.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 -3.3 9.6 3.4 -3.6 -0.1 -0.3
Rubber & plastics 22 94.6 96.6 99.7 100.6 101.3 102.0% change y-o-y -4.7 2.1 3.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 3.3 1.6 -2.6 1.5 0.7
TOTAL see above 107.7 106.8 109.1 111.3 113.5 115.6% change y-o-y -4.8 -0.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 3.4 5.1 3.9 -0.6 1.4 1.8
TURKEYCoke & refined petroleum 19 112.7 99.7 104.6 108.6 111.5 113.5% change y-o-y 1.2 -11.6 4.9 3.8 2.7 1.8 - - 3.1 0.5 0.1 2.3
Non-metallic minerals 23 134.2 149.5 161.6 172.7 183.0 192.8% change y-o-y -0.7 11.4 8.1 6.9 5.9 5.4 - - 10.7 2.9 7.5 5.3
Rubber & plastics 22 154.0 158.7 168.1 177.5 186.3 195.0% change y-o-y -1.0 3.1 5.9 5.6 5.0 4.7 - - 14.7 5.5 4.8 5.2
TOTAL see above 133.5 131.6 139.3 147.2 154.1 159.8% change y-o-y 1.5 -1.4 5.9 5.7 4.6 3.7 - - 7.1 2.6 3.7 4.0
UKRAINECoke & refined petroleum 19 34.9 30.2 33.0 35.2 37.2 39.2% change y-o-y -14.4 -13.6 9.4 6.5 5.8 5.2 - 2.3 -3.4 -17.0 2.3 4.7
Non-metallic minerals 23 202.2 205.0 230.2 252.6 272.0 290.6% change y-o-y -0.3 1.4 12.3 9.7 7.7 6.8 - 26.3 24.8 5.6 7.5 6.1
Rubber & plastics 22 70.1 74.1 81.9 86.8 91.3 95.7% change y-o-y -11.7 5.6 10.6 5.9 5.3 4.8 - -0.9 6.7 -9.9 6.4 4.5
TOTAL see above 86.8 85.6 95.0 103.8 111.9 119.2% change y-o-y -4.3 -1.4 11.0 9.3 7.7 6.6 - 2.8 9.2 -5.4 6.6 5.5
EUROPE Coke & refined petroleum 19 96.0 91.1 93.3 95.3 97.3 99.0% change y-o-y 0.7 -5.2 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.8 4.8 7.9 0.7 -1.6 0.6 1.8
Non-metallic minerals 23 87.8 84.8 87.5 90.3 93.1 95.8% change y-o-y -4.6 -3.4 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 4.8 1.5 3.2 -3.7 1.8 2.8
Rubber & plastics 22 107.7 108.6 112.2 116.2 119.7 122.8% change y-o-y -0.5 0.9 3.3 3.5 3.1 2.5 5.0 3.0 4.1 -0.3 2.7 2.4
TOTAL see above 101.2 100.3 102.9 106.1 109.1 111.9% change y-o-y -1.7 -0.9 2.7 3.1 2.9 2.5 4.7 3.4 3.4 -1.1 2.0 2.3
Average 5 year % growth
Europe, Middle East and Africa: Intermediate goods Detailed outputNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24 Value Added Index, 2005=100
Intermediate Goods
23
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
BAHRAINCoke & refined petroleum 19 149.7 153.7 156.6 159.8 163.3 166.9% change y-o-y 9.5 2.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 - - 10.4 4.7 2.2 2.0
Non-metallic minerals 23 115.5 122.2 124.2 126.8 128.5 130.6% change y-o-y -2.8 5.8 1.6 2.1 1.4 1.6 - - 28.5 0.2 2.5 2.5
Rubber & plastics 22 125.1 130.0 138.6 143.8 147.3 150.5% change y-o-y -0.2 3.9 6.6 3.8 2.4 2.2 - - 14.7 0.3 3.8 2.2
TOTAL see above 152.5 157.4 160.7 164.2 167.9 171.7% change y-o-y 9.3 3.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 - - 11.5 5.0 2.4 2.2
IRAQCoke & refined petroleum 19 51.5 53.7 56.3 58.9 62.1 65.1% change y-o-y 3.0 4.4 4.8 4.6 5.3 4.8 - 6.6 -28.5 -9.0 4.8 3.4
Non-metallic minerals 23 55.3 57.0 59.5 62.4 65.1 67.9% change y-o-y 3.7 3.1 4.5 4.7 4.4 4.3 - -24.8 -0.2 -9.6 4.2 3.3
Rubber & plastics 22 134.3 142.1 155.9 166.0 175.1 183.6% change y-o-y 9.6 5.8 9.7 6.5 5.5 4.8 - 16.3 31.6 0.5 6.4 3.1
TOTAL see above 194.1 208.4 221.9 234.7 247.9 261.5% change y-o-y 8.9 7.4 6.5 5.8 5.6 5.5 - 2.0 -12.5 10.7 6.1 4.6
ISRAELCoke & refined petroleum 19 48.0 50.6 54.8 57.8 59.8 61.4% change y-o-y -3.0 5.4 8.2 5.6 3.4 2.8 5.0 -4.0 -15.5 -9.2 5.0 2.6
Non-metallic minerals 23 78.5 82.1 86.3 90.2 93.1 95.6% change y-o-y -3.9 4.5 5.2 4.5 3.2 2.7 -1.8 -11.8 2.3 -4.3 4.0 2.6
Rubber & plastics 22 118.8 117.2 125.2 131.1 135.4 139.3% change y-o-y -1.1 -1.3 6.8 4.7 3.3 2.9 10.2 8.2 6.3 1.2 3.2 2.9
TOTAL see above 134.6 136.4 145.2 152.5 159.8 166.8% change y-o-y 3.8 1.3 6.5 5.0 4.8 4.3 6.1 5.1 6.6 3.0 4.4 3.9
KUWAITCoke & refined petroleum 19 121.5 124.9 128.4 131.3 134.7 138.0% change y-o-y 5.9 2.8 2.9 2.2 2.6 2.5 - -0.9 -1.7 9.7 2.6 2.4
Non-metallic minerals 23 62.5 63.4 65.1 66.6 67.7 69.1% change y-o-y 4.2 1.5 2.6 2.3 1.7 2.0 - 3.0 -0.1 -10.6 2.0 2.9
Rubber & plastics 22 50.7 52.9 56.9 59.2 60.8 62.3% change y-o-y 3.2 4.2 7.6 4.0 2.8 2.5 - -10.4 17.6 -13.9 4.2 2.6
TOTAL see above 112.3 115.4 118.8 121.6 124.7 127.8% change y-o-y 5.8 2.8 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.5 - -1.1 -0.2 6.8 2.6 2.5
OMANCoke & refined petroleum 19 110.3 114.1 119.5 125.4 132.3 138.7% change y-o-y 3.0 3.5 4.7 4.9 5.5 4.8 - - -6.4 8.4 4.7 3.5
Non-metallic minerals 23 182.7 186.7 194.9 204.6 214.1 223.3% change y-o-y 5.5 2.2 4.4 5.0 4.6 4.3 - - 7.2 10.5 4.1 4.0
Rubber & plastics 22 158.1 165.8 181.6 193.9 205.0 214.9% change y-o-y 5.2 4.9 9.5 6.8 5.7 4.9 - - -0.1 5.6 6.3 3.7
TOTAL see above 160.2 167.8 179.2 191.5 204.0 215.3% change y-o-y 4.7 4.7 6.8 6.9 6.5 5.5 - - 5.6 6.4 6.1 5.4
QATARCoke & refined petroleum 19 88.8 93.8 99.1 104.3 109.7 115.4% change y-o-y -8.1 5.6 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.1 -6.9 8.9 0.8 -1.5 5.4 4.6
Non-metallic minerals 23 166.9 183.4 203.2 219.9 239.8 267.7% change y-o-y -7.2 9.9 10.8 8.2 9.1 11.6 22.0 5.1 25.3 7.9 9.9 11.2
Rubber & plastics 22 144.0 150.5 166.5 178.2 187.9 197.6% change y-o-y -8.8 4.6 10.6 7.0 5.4 5.2 2.7 72.5 11.5 2.8 6.5 4.8
TOTAL see above 87.2 92.3 98.5 104.6 110.5 116.7% change y-o-y -9.2 5.9 6.7 6.1 5.7 5.6 0.2 4.2 3.1 -2.7 6.0 5.6
Average 5 year % growthNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24 Value Added Index, 2005=100
Europe, Middle East and Africa: Intermediate goods Detailed output
Intermediate Goods
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 24
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
SAUDI ARABIACoke & refined petroleum 19 135.8 140.6 145.3 150.2 156.2 162.4% change y-o-y 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.4 4.0 4.0 1.3 0.2 6.7 5.4 3.6 2.9
Non-metallic minerals 23 123.2 129.1 133.1 137.7 142.0 146.9% change y-o-y -11.0 4.8 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.5 12.7 13.9 -0.9 1.1 3.6 3.4
Rubber & plastics 22 137.9 141.1 152.6 160.5 167.3 174.0% change y-o-y -8.8 2.4 8.1 5.2 4.2 4.0 15.7 24.8 3.7 0.4 4.8 3.1
TOTAL see above 196.9 208.8 218.6 229.1 239.7 250.4% change y-o-y 10.1 6.0 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.5 6.3 4.5 9.4 10.3 4.9 4.3
UAECoke & refined petroleum 19 114.9 119.1 123.9 129.6 135.9 141.9% change y-o-y -1.4 3.6 4.1 4.6 4.9 4.4 - 9.0 2.5 0.9 4.3 3.6
Non-metallic minerals 23 134.8 137.8 143.1 149.7 155.7 161.7% change y-o-y -0.7 2.3 3.8 4.7 4.0 3.9 - 20.3 8.9 2.9 3.7 4.1
Rubber & plastics 22 106.7 112.1 122.0 129.8 136.5 142.5% change y-o-y 4.9 5.0 8.9 6.4 5.1 4.4 - 7.8 19.3 -1.0 6.0 3.8
TOTAL see above 104.3 108.5 113.8 120.0 126.7 132.5% change y-o-y -0.3 4.0 4.9 5.4 5.6 4.6 - 9.1 0.0 -0.1 4.9 3.9
EGYPTCoke & refined petroleum 19 19.4 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.5 23.3% change y-o-y -32.1 5.5 3.1 2.8 3.7 3.8 -2.9 10.1 -6.2 -25.3 3.8 3.9
Non-metallic minerals 23 19.2 18.9 20.2 21.5 22.7 24.0% change y-o-y -38.4 -1.7 7.0 6.1 5.9 5.4 20.6 -4.2 1.2 -26.2 4.5 5.3
Rubber & plastics 22 10.2 9.0 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.4% change y-o-y -42.1 -11.2 4.4 3.1 3.5 3.6 16.0 -5.7 -16.0 -33.0 0.5 3.7
TOTAL see above 210.4 219.8 230.9 245.1 259.5 273.7% change y-o-y 9.6 4.5 5.0 6.1 5.9 5.5 4.8 4.4 3.4 12.9 5.4 5.3
SOUTH AFRICACoke & refined petroleum 19 129.7 138.0 142.4 146.5 152.3 159.2% change y-o-y 5.7 6.4 3.2 2.9 4.0 4.5 -4.5 17.1 3.8 2.9 4.2 3.6
Non-metallic minerals 23 105.6 110.0 116.1 120.5 123.6 128.1% change y-o-y 0.8 4.1 5.6 3.8 2.6 3.6 0.5 -6.2 6.1 -1.4 3.9 3.3
Rubber & plastics 22 129.7 132.4 137.7 143.6 151.2 159.4% change y-o-y 5.7 2.1 4.0 4.3 5.3 5.4 -0.1 -5.5 3.8 2.9 4.2 4.7
TOTAL see above 114.9 119.0 124.6 129.7 135.6 142.3% change y-o-y 3.0 3.6 4.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 0.7 1.9 3.5 0.6 4.4 4.3
EUROPE, ME & AFRICACoke & refined petroleum 19 99.8 97.8 100.6 103.2 106.1 108.9% change y-o-y 1.1 -2.0 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.6 4.9 7.5 0.9 -0.5 1.8 2.3
Non-metallic minerals 23 89.3 86.8 89.6 92.5 95.3 98.2% change y-o-y -4.9 -2.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 5.0 1.7 3.0 -3.5 1.9 2.9
Rubber & plastics 22 108.3 109.4 113.0 117.1 120.7 123.9% change y-o-y -0.5 1.0 3.4 3.6 3.1 2.6 5.0 3.1 4.2 -0.2 2.7 2.4
TOTAL see above 105.9 105.7 108.8 112.4 116.0 119.2% change y-o-y -0.7 -0.2 3.0 3.3 3.1 2.8 4.8 3.6 3.6 -0.4 2.4 2.6
Average 5 year % growth
Europe, Middle East and Africa: Intermediate goods Detailed outputNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24 Value Added Index, 2005=100
Intermediate Goods
25
Forecast in Detail - Americas
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Source: Oxford Economics
Americas: Intermediate goods output growth
Forecast
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Coke & refined petroleum products
Rubber & plastics
Non-metallic minerals
Source: Oxford Economics
Americas: Intermediate goods output growth
Forecast
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Colombia
Argentina
Chile
Source: Oxford Economics
Intermediate goods: Output
Forecast
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Coke & refined petroleum products
Rubber & plastics
Non-metallic minerals
Source: Oxford Economics
US: Intermediate goods output growth
Forecast
Intermediate goods
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Canada
Brazil
Mexico
Source: Oxford Economics
Intermediate goods: Output
Forecast
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Uruguay
Venezuela
Ecuador
Source: Oxford Economics
Intermediate goods: Output
Forecast
Intermediate Goods
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 26
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
UNITED STATESCoke & refined petroleum 19 102.7 106.0 108.1 112.9 116.6 119.1% change y-o-y 2.4 3.2 2.0 4.4 3.3 2.2 3.4 3.1 3.9 -0.7 3.0 1.4
Non-metallic minerals 23 73.3 75.4 79.3 83.5 88.1 93.1% change y-o-y 2.6 2.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.3 2.4 3.4 -6.4 4.9 4.8
Rubber & plastics 22 87.1 90.5 93.6 96.7 99.8 103.2% change y-o-y 4.7 3.9 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.5 6.7 3.4 1.6 -2.6 3.5 2.8
TOTAL see above 118.1 122.1 126.9 133.4 139.5 145.4% change y-o-y 5.2 3.4 3.9 5.1 4.6 4.2 4.1 2.7 5.2 1.3 4.2 3.6
CANADACoke & refined petroleum 19 97.1 102.3 104.3 105.2 106.3 107.4% change y-o-y 0.9 5.3 2.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 2.4 3.5 -1.5 0.0 2.0 1.0
Non-metallic minerals 23 92.9 88.4 92.2 95.7 99.7 103.5% change y-o-y 2.6 -4.9 4.3 3.8 4.2 3.9 4.6 5.0 2.6 -1.3 2.2 3.2
Rubber & plastics 22 79.7 79.0 82.5 84.2 86.1 88.6% change y-o-y 0.9 -0.9 4.5 2.0 2.2 2.9 9.6 6.7 -1.2 -2.7 2.1 3.5
TOTAL see above 83.2 84.6 88.1 90.3 92.9 95.6% change y-o-y 0.6 1.7 4.0 2.6 2.9 2.8 4.5 4.1 0.3 -2.5 2.8 2.8
ARGENTINACoke & refined petroleum 19 31.7 31.3 33.4 35.8 38.0 39.6% change y-o-y -10.6 -1.0 6.6 7.2 6.2 4.1 - -36.9 -3.5 -15.3 4.6 2.6
Non-metallic minerals 23 170.5 186.6 197.3 208.0 218.2 227.2% change y-o-y -0.2 9.5 5.7 5.4 4.9 4.1 - -7.7 16.2 6.1 5.9 3.9
Rubber & plastics 22 155.0 150.3 158.8 170.0 178.8 186.7% change y-o-y 1.5 -3.0 5.6 7.1 5.2 4.4 - -3.8 9.4 5.9 3.8 3.2
TOTAL see above 148.8 151.1 159.6 169.9 179.6 187.7% change y-o-y 0.5 1.5 5.6 6.5 5.7 4.5 - -4.2 9.2 4.9 4.7 3.3
BRAZILCoke & refined petroleum 19 106.7 112.0 116.1 120.8 125.7 130.9% change y-o-y 4.5 5.0 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.3 0.9 1.8 0.6 4.2 4.0
Non-metallic minerals 23 121.9 124.4 130.4 134.7 137.7 141.5% change y-o-y -1.1 2.1 4.9 3.3 2.2 2.8 6.7 -0.6 2.8 2.5 3.0 2.8
Rubber & plastics 22 105.4 110.2 115.8 120.3 125.0 130.0% change y-o-y -2.2 4.5 5.1 3.9 3.9 4.1 6.2 -1.6 2.7 -0.3 4.3 3.8
TOTAL see above 105.3 108.0 112.8 117.4 122.2 127.4% change y-o-y 0.7 2.6 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.7 0.6 2.6 0.1 3.9 4.0
CHILECoke & refined petroleum 19 89.6 97.7 102.2 107.6 112.4 117.0% change y-o-y -2.4 9.1 4.6 5.2 4.4 4.1 - 1.2 0.5 -1.3 5.5 4.2
Non-metallic minerals 23 189.6 179.3 189.6 198.1 203.2 208.8% change y-o-y 21.7 -5.4 5.8 4.5 2.6 2.7 - -2.4 1.1 11.9 2.0 2.9
Rubber & plastics 22 108.6 105.5 111.9 117.5 122.6 127.5% change y-o-y 4.6 -2.8 6.0 5.1 4.3 4.0 - -1.3 7.2 -0.4 3.3 4.0
TOTAL see above 109.9 108.4 113.9 119.5 124.4 129.3% change y-o-y -0.3 -1.4 5.1 4.9 4.2 3.9 - 0.9 4.3 1.1 3.3 3.9
COLOMBIACoke & refined petroleum 19 104.8 107.8 117.5 127.0 135.5 143.1% change y-o-y -5.3 2.8 9.0 8.1 6.7 5.6 - - 6.0 -0.3 6.4 4.6
Non-metallic minerals 23 129.8 132.8 141.1 151.0 160.8 171.0% change y-o-y -1.5 2.3 6.3 7.0 6.5 6.3 - - 10.3 0.9 5.7 5.6
Rubber & plastics 22 113.5 117.2 126.2 133.5 139.8 146.7% change y-o-y -6.0 3.3 7.7 5.7 4.7 4.9 - - 5.6 0.1 5.3 4.6
TOTAL see above 118.0 121.6 129.8 138.3 146.1 153.8% change y-o-y -3.3 3.0 6.8 6.6 5.6 5.3 - - 7.1 1.0 5.4 4.8
Americas: Intermediate goodsNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24
Detailed outputValue Added Index, 2005=100
Average 5 year % growth
Intermediate Goods
27
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
ECUADORCoke & refined petroleum 19 125.0 134.6 149.5 162.1 171.7 180.2% change y-o-y -10.9 7.7 11.1 8.4 5.9 5.0 - - -2.5 5.2 7.6 3.6
-Non-metallic minerals 23 143.6 149.8 162.4 174.2 184.2 194.7% change y-o-y 8.7 4.4 8.4 7.3 5.7 5.7 - 26.8 -4.0 7.9 6.3 4.7
Rubber & plastics 22 33.7 36.9 40.5 43.0 44.7 46.6% change y-o-y 11.6 9.6 9.8 6.1 4.0 4.3 - -4.7 3.0 -21.3 6.7 3.7
TOTAL see above 98.7 105.3 114.5 122.1 127.6 133.4% change y-o-y 2.7 6.6 8.8 6.6 4.5 4.6 - 19.0 2.0 -1.7 6.2 3.7
MEXICOCoke & refined petroleum 19 92.8 97.3 108.0 118.1 126.4 133.1% change y-o-y 1.9 4.9 10.9 9.4 7.0 5.4 2.9 2.5 2.4 -1.4 7.5 4.3
Non-metallic minerals 23 106.0 107.8 116.6 126.2 134.8 143.1% change y-o-y 2.1 1.7 8.2 8.3 6.8 6.1 1.8 2.8 4.1 -0.7 6.2 5.4
Rubber & plastics 22 119.0 127.1 139.2 149.0 156.5 163.9% change y-o-y 7.8 6.8 9.6 7.0 5.1 4.7 2.9 1.9 2.5 2.3 6.6 4.4
TOTAL see above 101.4 104.3 112.6 121.0 127.6 133.8% change y-o-y 3.6 2.8 8.0 7.5 5.4 4.9 3.3 0.5 3.5 -0.5 5.7 4.5
URUGUAYCoke & refined petroleum 19 69.9 97.7 104.6 111.7 117.4 121.8% change y-o-y -2.8 39.6 7.1 6.8 5.1 3.8 8.5 -9.9 4.3 -5.5 11.7 2.8
Non-metallic minerals 23 106.7 102.4 106.6 111.2 115.4 119.8% change y-o-y -6.1 -4.1 4.1 4.2 3.8 3.8 -7.5 -13.0 9.2 -0.7 2.3 4.0
Rubber & plastics 22 119.3 133.2 138.6 146.7 152.7 159.0% change y-o-y -1.9 11.7 4.1 5.8 4.1 4.1 -7.3 1.1 10.1 0.2 5.9 3.4
TOTAL see above 87.3 102.1 108.3 114.8 120.1 124.7% change y-o-y -0.2 17.0 6.0 6.0 4.6 3.8 7.2 -9.9 6.4 -2.5 7.4 3.0
VENEZUELACoke & refined petroleum 19 95.6 95.6 95.5 97.7 101.8 105.4% change y-o-y 1.4 0.0 -0.1 2.3 4.3 3.5 - -3.5 2.2 -0.6 2.0 2.1
Non-metallic minerals 23 115.7 109.8 117.5 124.4 131.2 137.2% change y-o-y 1.1 -5.0 7.0 5.8 5.5 4.5 - -3.9 8.5 0.0 3.5 2.7
Rubber & plastics 22 119.8 122.4 128.2 132.3 137.9 143.4% change y-o-y 5.4 2.2 4.7 3.2 4.2 4.1 - -3.5 8.7 0.1 3.7 3.0
TOTAL see above 107.8 108.8 111.6 115.9 121.1 126.1% change y-o-y 3.4 0.9 2.6 3.8 4.6 4.1 - -3.4 5.8 -0.3 3.2 2.8
AMERICASCoke & refined petroleum 19 150.4 155.8 159.9 167.1 173.1 177.8% change y-o-y 2.4 3.5 2.6 4.5 3.6 2.7 5.0 2.6 3.4 -0.5 3.4 2.0
Non-metallic minerals 23 89.5 91.0 96.1 101.5 106.9 112.5% change y-o-y 2.0 1.7 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.7 2.2 3.8 -3.7 4.7 4.5
Rubber & plastics 22 92.4 95.8 99.9 103.5 107.0 110.9% change y-o-y 3.9 3.6 4.2 3.7 3.3 3.6 7.8 2.9 1.7 -2.3 3.7 3.1
TOTAL see above 132.7 136.9 142.6 149.9 156.6 163.2% change y-o-y 4.3 3.1 4.2 5.1 4.5 4.2 5.3 2.2 4.6 0.9 4.2 3.6
Average 5 year % growth
Americas: Intermediate goods Detailed outputNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24 Value Added Index, 2005=100
Intermediate Goods
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 28
Forecast in Detail – Asia Pacific
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Coke & refined
petroleum products
Rubber & plastics
Non-metallic minerals
Source: Oxford Economics
Asia Pacific: Intermediate goods output growth
Forecast
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Source: Oxford Economics
Asia Pacific: Intermediate goods output growth
Forecast
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% yearCoke & refined
petroleum productsRubber & plastics
Non-metallic minerals
Source: Oxford Economics
Japan: Intermediate goods output growth
Forecast
Intermediate goods
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
India
China
Source: Oxford Economics
Intermediate goods: Output
ForecastKorea
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Vietnam
Singapore
Source: Oxford Economics
Intermediate goods: Output
Forecast
Hong Kong
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Thailand
Malaysia
Source: Oxford Economics
Intermediate goods: Output
Forecast
Indonesia
Intermediate Goods
29
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
AUSTRALIACoke & refined petroleum 19 86.7 88.1 89.9 91.7 93.8 95.8% change y-o-y -1.7 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.2 - 1.4 5.7 -1.3 2.0 1.9
Non-metallic minerals 23 98.5 100.9 105.0 108.5 112.0 115.2% change y-o-y -5.7 2.4 4.0 3.4 3.2 2.8 - 5.5 4.0 -1.4 3.2 2.2
Rubber & plastics 22 72.2 76.3 77.6 78.9 80.2 81.5% change y-o-y 8.8 5.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 - 2.3 -5.3 -4.6 2.5 1.3
TOTAL see above 102.9 104.2 106.7 108.9 111.1 113.0% change y-o-y -1.7 1.2 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.8 - 3.3 0.4 0.2 1.9 1.5
JAPANCoke & refined petroleum 19 95.4 95.8 99.9 103.0 104.6 106.4% change y-o-y -3.9 0.4 4.3 3.1 1.6 1.7 1.8 0.3 0.6 -1.1 2.2 1.8
Non-metallic minerals 23 96.2 97.8 100.8 102.7 103.4 104.3% change y-o-y -1.0 1.6 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.9 -0.6 -4.8 1.1 -1.8 1.6 0.9
Rubber & plastics 22 98.4 99.9 108.0 115.4 120.5 125.0% change y-o-y -3.5 1.5 8.1 6.8 4.5 3.8 0.0 -1.8 2.3 -1.5 4.9 1.6
TOTAL see above 102.0 105.7 113.3 120.9 125.8 129.2% change y-o-y -6.5 3.6 7.2 6.7 4.1 2.7 1.0 -0.6 4.7 -2.0 4.8 1.5
NEW ZEALANDCoke & refined petroleum 19 60.7 63.8 66.6 69.0 71.2 73.3% change y-o-y 3.9 5.0 4.4 3.5 3.2 3.0 -14.9 0.9 -24.7 -4.1 3.8 2.2
Non-metallic minerals 23 84.7 86.7 92.6 97.6 102.2 106.6% change y-o-y 3.8 2.3 6.8 5.5 4.7 4.3 -10.9 8.4 -4.2 -4.9 4.7 3.7
Rubber & plastics 22 63.4 68.2 72.8 75.7 77.8 79.8% change y-o-y 18.9 7.6 6.7 4.0 2.7 2.6 4.9 1.3 0.8 -6.7 4.7 2.1
TOTAL see above 92.8 93.8 97.0 100.4 103.4 106.2% change y-o-y 2.2 1.0 3.4 3.6 3.0 2.8 0.2 0.7 -3.3 -1.4 2.7 2.4
CHINACoke & refined petroleum 19 140.7 150.4 159.0 168.4 178.0 188.5% change y-o-y 2.8 6.9 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.9 11.9 4.8 7.1 4.3 6.0 5.9
Non-metallic minerals 23 197.5 203.7 222.0 235.2 250.3 266.8% change y-o-y 13.7 3.2 9.0 6.0 6.4 6.6 14.4 6.6 8.6 9.9 6.2 6.4
Rubber & plastics 22 235.9 246.6 262.9 277.5 292.7 309.4% change y-o-y 6.5 4.6 6.6 5.5 5.5 5.7 17.8 12.0 18.9 9.1 5.6 5.7
TOTAL see above 202.9 216.5 233.8 249.7 266.7 284.9% change y-o-y 8.7 6.7 8.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 15.0 10.2 13.2 8.8 7.0 6.5
HONG KONGCoke & refined petroleum 19 86.8 88.2 89.2 89.6 89.9 90.0% change y-o-y -1.1 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 5.1 5.2 -0.2 -2.7 0.7 0.4
Non-metallic minerals 23 86.5 87.2 88.5 90.1 90.1 89.8% change y-o-y -1.1 0.8 1.4 1.8 0.0 -0.3 5.1 5.3 0.1 -2.7 0.7 1.7
Rubber & plastics 22 87.2 84.4 86.2 87.3 86.7 85.9% change y-o-y -1.1 -3.2 2.1 1.2 -0.7 -0.9 5.2 0.8 -1.1 -2.7 -0.3 1.1
TOTAL see above 87.2 87.3 88.2 89.3 89.9 90.0% change y-o-y -1.1 0.0 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 5.2 -1.1 -1.4 -2.7 0.6 1.1
INDIACoke & refined petroleum 19 168.0 166.8 177.0 191.2 206.2 222.8% change y-o-y 2.8 -0.7 6.1 8.0 7.9 8.0 8.9 4.6 6.0 8.3 5.8 6.6
Non-metallic minerals 23 124.1 132.2 138.9 147.7 159.6 172.8% change y-o-y 2.0 6.5 5.1 6.3 8.0 8.3 7.8 1.7 8.8 2.2 6.9 7.6
Rubber & plastics 22 168.0 169.1 182.4 199.6 216.0 234.2% change y-o-y 2.8 0.6 7.9 9.5 8.2 8.4 8.9 4.6 6.0 8.3 6.9 7.8
TOTAL see above 151.3 154.8 164.7 177.1 191.9 208.1% change y-o-y 1.5 2.3 6.4 7.5 8.4 8.4 7.1 0.4 9.8 5.0 6.6 7.5
INDONESIACoke & refined petroleum 19 76.8 82.2 86.4 90.9 95.0 99.9% change y-o-y 5.2 7.1 5.1 5.2 4.5 5.1 -3.5 12.5 -7.9 -5.8 5.4 5.1
Non-metallic minerals 23 114.5 124.8 130.8 137.7 145.9 154.2% change y-o-y 8.3 9.0 4.8 5.2 6.0 5.6 -0.5 26.1 3.2 1.5 6.1 4.9
Rubber & plastics 22 85.5 90.5 95.4 101.0 107.2 113.4% change y-o-y 6.3 5.9 5.3 5.9 6.1 5.8 -3.6 8.0 -0.8 2.4 5.8 5.7
TOTAL see above 126.7 136.3 145.6 154.3 163.1 172.1% change y-o-y 7.2 7.6 6.8 6.0 5.7 5.5 -0.2 9.4 2.1 1.8 6.3 5.4
Detailed outputValue Added Index, 2005=100
Asia Pacific: Intermediate goods
Average 5 year % growthNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24
Intermediate Goods
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 30
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
KOREACoke & refined petroleum 19 110.2 109.8 116.3 122.6 128.2 132.6% change y-o-y 3.5 -0.3 5.9 5.4 4.5 3.5 14.5 -6.6 1.7 2.0 3.8 2.5
Non-metallic minerals 23 106.6 110.6 116.8 122.4 127.3 131.4% change y-o-y -4.5 3.8 5.6 4.8 3.9 3.2 3.9 3.1 3.4 -0.4 4.3 2.4
Rubber & plastics 22 117.0 122.5 130.7 140.2 149.5 157.5% change y-o-y 2.9 4.7 6.7 7.3 6.6 5.4 7.2 14.6 3.5 0.8 6.1 4.3
TOTAL see above 165.9 170.2 182.1 195.8 207.8 218.5% change y-o-y 3.8 2.6 7.0 7.5 6.1 5.2 8.4 9.6 9.7 6.9 5.7 4.2
MALAYSIACoke & refined petroleum 19 127.0 135.3 144.2 152.8 158.8 165.9% change y-o-y 1.6 6.6 6.6 5.9 4.0 4.4 29.1 4.6 -3.3 -4.6 5.5 3.9
Non-metallic minerals 23 78.2 74.4 79.5 84.5 89.5 94.0% change y-o-y -3.6 -4.8 6.8 6.3 5.9 5.0 10.0 -5.9 0.6 -2.2 3.8 3.8
Rubber & plastics 22 103.7 111.6 119.2 127.0 134.1 141.0% change y-o-y -2.3 7.6 6.8 6.5 5.6 5.1 11.6 4.6 3.2 -3.4 6.3 4.5
TOTAL see above 135.5 144.5 154.4 164.0 172.7 181.1% change y-o-y 6.3 6.6 6.8 6.2 5.4 4.8 14.2 4.6 6.3 2.8 6.0 4.3
PAKISTANCoke & refined petroleum 19 85.9 90.9 96.2 102.5 108.3 114.9% change y-o-y 1.4 5.8 5.8 6.7 5.6 6.1 - 32.6 -7.3 -3.6 6.0 5.1
Non-metallic minerals 23 103.8 109.6 114.9 120.6 127.5 135.7% change y-o-y -5.5 5.6 4.8 4.9 5.8 6.4 - -8.7 7.8 -2.0 5.5 6.1
Rubber & plastics 22 96.3 104.6 112.6 121.6 128.8 137.2% change y-o-y -3.7 8.7 7.6 8.0 5.9 6.5 - -5.7 9.7 -3.7 7.3 6.3
TOTAL see above 65.5 68.9 72.9 77.3 81.8 86.9% change y-o-y -4.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.9 6.3 - 17.6 3.2 -7.1 5.8 5.7
PHILIPPINESCoke & refined petroleum 19 70.4 89.7 94.2 98.9 102.9 108.0% change y-o-y -11.2 27.4 5.0 4.9 4.0 5.0 - -9.3 -5.3 -2.0 8.9 4.8
Non-metallic minerals 23 147.9 159.3 172.0 182.9 195.7 209.5% change y-o-y 7.0 7.7 8.0 6.3 7.0 7.0 - 21.0 0.0 9.8 7.2 6.0
Rubber & plastics 22 200.3 240.5 253.1 267.2 282.4 298.5% change y-o-y -4.8 20.1 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.7 - 3.1 19.2 6.5 8.3 5.4
TOTAL see above 129.9 140.5 149.4 157.3 165.6 174.3% change y-o-y -0.9 8.1 6.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 - 0.6 4.3 3.9 6.1 5.0
SINGAPORECoke & refined petroleum 19 45.9 42.3 45.2 45.9 46.7 47.4% change y-o-y -9.6 -8.0 6.9 1.4 1.9 1.4 3.6 -5.5 -14.6 -10.2 0.6 1.9
Non-metallic minerals 23 116.6 117.6 125.3 126.3 128.1 129.6% change y-o-y -4.1 0.8 6.6 0.9 1.4 1.2 5.6 -9.0 4.6 1.8 2.1 1.8
Rubber & plastics 22 100.0 95.1 102.4 105.8 110.0 113.5% change y-o-y -5.6 -4.9 7.7 3.2 4.0 3.3 6.6 3.3 3.8 -1.4 2.6 3.6
TOTAL see above 162.8 166.9 180.4 185.9 191.8 197.7% change y-o-y 1.5 2.5 8.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 6.8 3.0 8.9 6.2 4.0 3.2
TAIWANCoke & refined petroleum 19 138.7 145.4 155.5 161.5 167.0 172.2% change y-o-y 1.8 4.8 7.0 3.8 3.4 3.1 11.9 5.8 9.4 4.5 4.4 2.4
Non-metallic minerals 23 102.9 108.9 113.3 116.5 120.2 123.8% change y-o-y -4.8 5.9 4.0 2.8 3.2 3.0 5.5 0.8 3.2 0.2 3.8 2.4
Rubber & plastics 22 97.9 99.5 105.1 108.3 111.8 115.4% change y-o-y -0.2 1.7 5.6 3.0 3.3 3.2 0.5 0.5 2.0 -0.5 3.4 2.7
TOTAL see above 179.8 190.1 199.1 205.7 213.8 221.8% change y-o-y 2.6 5.7 4.7 3.3 3.9 3.8 7.4 7.0 12.5 7.0 4.3 3.3
THAILANDCoke & refined petroleum 19 115.6 121.1 128.5 135.4 142.1 150.3% change y-o-y 8.5 4.8 6.1 5.4 4.9 5.8 - -13.2 -9.5 2.3 5.4 5.6
Non-metallic minerals 23 120.1 123.2 130.3 137.3 146.3 155.4% change y-o-y 8.6 2.6 5.8 5.4 6.5 6.3 - -1.9 -2.0 4.1 5.3 5.4
Rubber & plastics 22 116.5 123.0 130.7 138.6 147.7 157.3% change y-o-y 2.6 5.6 6.3 6.0 6.6 6.5 - -0.4 6.9 2.7 6.2 6.2
TOTAL see above 120.2 128.1 137.0 145.4 153.8 162.7% change y-o-y 2.7 6.5 7.0 6.1 5.8 5.8 - 7.7 5.1 1.8 6.2 5.6
Asia Pacific: Intermediate goods Detailed outputNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24 Value Added Index, 2005=100
Average 5 year % growth
Intermediate Goods
31
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
VIETNAMCoke & refined petroleum 19 1939.5 2065.6 2309.5 2482.1 2626.4 2794.6% change y-o-y 4.3 6.5 11.8 7.5 5.8 6.4 - 26.2 0.2 97.3 7.6 6.3
Non-metallic minerals 23 158.2 159.7 174.4 187.4 201.2 215.1% change y-o-y 14.8 0.9 9.2 7.5 7.4 6.9 - 11.6 6.7 6.8 6.3 6.1
Rubber & plastics 22 138.0 139.6 157.7 170.5 183.2 196.2% change y-o-y -21.8 1.2 12.9 8.1 7.5 7.1 - 17.6 15.4 1.4 7.3 6.9
TOTAL see above 179.1 185.6 202.4 219.0 235.3 252.0% change y-o-y 0.0 3.6 9.0 8.2 7.4 7.1 - 9.9 11.3 7.6 7.1 6.7
ASIA PACIFICCoke & refined petroleum 19 121.2 126.8 134.0 141.7 149.2 157.3% change y-o-y 1.9 4.6 5.7 5.7 5.3 5.5 9.0 3.3 1.3 2.4 5.4 5.2
Non-metallic minerals 23 175.2 180.7 194.0 204.0 215.1 227.1% change y-o-y 8.2 3.2 7.3 5.2 5.4 5.6 6.0 1.6 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.4
Rubber & plastics 22 134.3 139.0 148.8 158.0 166.4 174.7% change y-o-y 1.6 3.5 7.1 6.2 5.3 5.0 3.1 2.2 6.3 2.9 5.4 4.2
TOTAL see above 151.2 158.9 170.3 181.3 191.8 202.1% change y-o-y 2.9 5.1 7.2 6.4 5.8 5.4 5.7 4.2 8.3 4.4 6.0 4.9
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
WORLDCoke & refined petroleum 19 125.9 128.8 133.2 139.0 144.4 149.3% change y-o-y 1.9 2.3 3.4 4.4 3.8 3.4 5.9 4.1 2.2 0.2 3.5 3.0
Non-metallic minerals 23 118.9 120.2 127.2 133.1 139.5 146.1% change y-o-y 2.7 1.1 5.8 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.6 1.8 4.1 0.4 4.2 4.6
Rubber & plastics 22 112.8 115.7 121.7 127.4 132.6 137.7% change y-o-y 1.3 2.6 5.1 4.7 4.1 3.9 5.1 2.7 4.2 0.5 4.1 3.4
TOTAL see above 130.9 135.0 142.1 149.6 156.7 163.6% change y-o-y 2.3 3.1 5.2 5.3 4.8 4.4 5.3 3.3 5.6 2.0 4.6 4.0
Detailed outputNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24 Value Added Index, 2005=100
Average 5 year % growth
World: Intermediate goods Detailed outputNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24
Average 5 year % growth
Asia Pacific: Intermediate goods
Value Added Index, 2005=100