interim results announcement - todayir · 2011. 8. 29. · 4,829 5,363 5,768 1,743 1,613 < 9...
TRANSCRIPT
Interim Results Announcement
HKEx Stock Code: 2208
August 2011
‹#›
Agenda
Company Overview
Financial Performance
Company Outlook
Industry Overview
‹#›
Source:BTM , PRC’s 12th 5-Year Plan, analyst forecasts.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Cumulative installations - High forecast
Cumulative installations - Low forecast
(GW)
150 GW
115 GW
2.3
4.5
7.3
14.0
18.0
3.3
6.2
13.8
18.9
14.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E
BTM Forecast
Actual Installations
12th Five-Year Plan
(GW)
China Wind Outlook
Annual Installed Capacity Forecast Cumulative Installed Capacity
‹#›
NDRC assumed leadership of wind farm approvals (incl. < 50 MW farms)
Wind farm faults in Gansu, Hebei
State Grid halted new connections
State Grid investigated
faults
NEB issued 18 final wind power
standards
State Grid to begin retesting
all WTGs for LVRT
Late 2010 Feb. & Apr. 2011 May 2011
May-June 2011 Sept. 2011 August 2011
Key Events in China Wind Market
‹#›
Tighter Monetary
Policy
Higher Raw Materials
Costs
Slower Wind Farm
Approvals
Stricter Standards
Pricing Competition
• Tighter money affects sales because project financing is more scarce
• Slower receivables collections, higher financing costs
• Steel and copper pricing have risen gradually since last year
• Rare earths pricing rose sharply since the beginning of 2011
• NDRC revoked local DRCs right to approve sub-50 MW wind farms
• State Grid temporarily halted new wind farm approvals in May 2011
• National Energy Bureau finalized 18 wind standards in August 2011
• State Grid will re-test wind turbines for LVRT and other standards
• Average bidding price dropped 22% in June 2011 versus June 2010
• Average bidding price dropped 8% in June 2011 versus Dec. 2010
China Wind Market: A Challenging 1H11
‹#›
Average Domestic Public Bidding Price • Average domestic public bidding price decreased 8% during 1H11 (Dec. ’10-Jun. ’11) and 22% during LTM (Jun. ’10 –Jun. ’11)
• Goldwind’s domestic public bidding price decreased 7% and 21% during the same respective periods
• Goldwind’s average bidding price was more than 3% ABOVE the average bidding price during the LTM period
• Average domestic public bidding price rebounded 3% to RMB 3,732 per kW in Jul. ’11 from RMB 3,615 in Jun. ’11
Note: Average domestic bidding price are for 1.5 MW units. Data include VAT and exclude a bid from a foreign manufacturer in January 2011. Source: Company estimates.
Jun-104,612
Dec-103,950
Jun-11
3,615
Jul-113,732
Average
Goldwind
(RMB per kW)
Price Competition: Bidding Trends
‹#› Source: Company estimates.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Dysprosium 镝铁价格
Neodymium 镨钕价格
(RMB/kg)(RMB/kg)
Raw Materials Pricing: Rare Earths
Rare Earths Spot Market Pricing • Our permanent magnets are approx. 70% steel and 30% rare earths
• Neodymium and dysprosium spot market prices increased 5x and 10x, respectively, since the beginning of 2011
• In August, spot market price dropped 22% and 24% for neodymium and dysprosium, respectively
• Thanks to long-term supply agreements, PMs represented 6% of costs in 1H11, up from 5% in 2010
‹#›
Agenda
Industry Overview
Financial Performance
Company Outlook
Company Overview
‹#›
WTG Manufacturing
and Sales
Wind Power Services
Wind Farm Development
Pre-Construction
Wind evaluation
WTG selection
Wind farm design
Low-maintenance, high reliability WTGs suitable for low wind, offshore , low temperature, high temperature, high altitude, and coastal installation.
Customer
Demand
Customer
Loyalty
Expand Customer Base
Increase Order Backlog
Project Construction
Site preparation
EPC contracting
Logistics
Wind farm development
Wind farm operation
Wind farm sales
Comprehensive Wind Energy Solutions
Post-Construction
Equipment servicing
Spare parts support
Remote monitoring
Synergies
Technology
Validation
Integrated Business Model
‹#›
Strategic goals
Wind Turbine SBU
• Our core business
• Over 14 years of R&D and manufacturing
• Over 10 GW of WTG sales
• A trusted name in the wind power industry
Services SBU (Tianyuan)
• Synergy with other SBU
• Manage full life-cycle (wind resource appraisal, EPC, operations and maintenance)
• SCADA, EMS
Wind Farm Development SBU (Tianrun)
• Wind farm , development, operation & sales
• Leverage our experienced team of wind farm development professionals
Techwin SBU (Tiancheng)
• Vertical integration
• Focus on electrical control systems
• WTG
• Solar
International SBU
• Pursue mature and emerging wind power markets
• Establish flexible sources of financing
• Localize manufacturing
Investment Management
SBU
• Pursue strategic investments in partners, suppliers, and other key stakeholders
• Target key areas of the wind power value chain
Creating Synergies that Drive Near-Term Profit Diversification and Growth
Group Management, Diversified Business
• Innovative R&D
• Quality product at a competitive price
• Cost controls
• Quality controls
• Supply chain mgmt
• Maintaining strong relationships with customers
• Monitoring and maintenance support quality control
• Support ongoing sales of WTG
• Generate an appropriate return on investments
• One of the key profit centers
• Reduce costs
• Address supply bottlenecks
• Expand into new sectors, such as solar based on existing proprietary technology
• Support ongoing
WTG sales by
expanding our
market footprint
• Establish
Goldwind brand
in new markets
• New source of
profitability
• Address supply bottlenecks
• Generate an appropriate return on investments
• New source of profitability
‹#›
854 444 154 92
519 1,592
3,851
1,235 1,211
3 >
< 35
1,373
2,036
4,007
1,326 1,246
2008 2009 2010 1H10 1H11
MW sold
2.5 MW
1.5 MW
750 kW
(MW)
Source: Company filings.
1H11 Wind Turbine Sales
Wind Turbine Generator Sales (MW) • WTG sales volumes decreased 6.1% to 1,246 MW in 1H11 from 1,326 MW in 1H10
• Shift in product mix toward higher capacity WTG units:
• 1H11 includes 35 MW of 2.5 MW units and no 750 kW units
• 1H10 includes 92 MW of 750 kW units and no 2.5 MW units
• Goldwind’s global cumulative sales capacity surpassed 10 GW during 1H11 Cumulative WTG Sales (MW)
2008 2009 2010 1H10 1H11
3,053 5,088 9,095 6,414 10,341
‹#›
Note: Backlog data available by unit starting 2010/12/31. Source: Company filings.
4,8295,363 5,768
1,7431,613
1,548< 9< 9
< 12
3,790
5,330
6,5806,984
7,327
30 June 2010 30 Sep 2010 31 Dec 2010 31 Mar 2011 30 June 2011
1.5 MW
2.5 MW
3.0 MW
All
(MW)
Longyuan Datang Jingneng Guohua Huaneng Huadian Three Gorges Guandong Nuclear China Power
Order Backlog Up 93%
Strong Backlog Growth • Total backlog up 93% to 7,327 MW as of June 30, 2011 from 3,790 MW as of June 30, 2010
• On a quarterly basis, backlog up 5% from 6,984 MW as of March 31, 2011
• On a semi-annual basis, backlog up 11% from 6,580 MW as of December 31, 2010
• June 30, 2011 backlog included 159 MW of international orders
Major Customers
‹#› Source: Company filings.
2,288 3,799 2,765 2,783
3,315
1,502
1,531 3,816 4,202 4,012
3,790
5,330
6,580 6,984
7,327
30 June 2010 30 Sep 2010 31 Dec 2010 31 Mar 2011 30 June 2011
Total
Successfully bid
Under final contract
(MW)
Faster Permitting → Faster Conversion to Signed Contracts
Contracted Backlog Up 45%
Contracted Vs. Successfully Bid Backlog • In general, developers will bid on a project first, and then wait for final permits before signing a contract and paying the deposit. Permitting has slowed, so conversion of successful bids to final contracts also slowed.
• In spite of slower permitting, the contracted backlog increased 19% to 3,315 MW as of June 30, 2011 from 2,783 MW as of March 31, 2011.
• On a year-over-year basis, the contracted backlog increased 45% from 2,288 MW as of June 30, 2010.
‹#› Source: Company filings.
4,450
5,900
30 June 2010 30 June 2011
(units)
21
60
30 June 2010 30 June 2011
(systems)
6
30
30 June 2010 30 June 2011
(systems)
Wind Power Services Segment
• Goldwind provided maintenance service for 1,450 units during twelve months ended June 30, 2011
• SCADA remote monitoring systems tripled during the same period
• Energy Management Systems climbed to 30 systems as of June 30, 2011
Cumulative Maintenance-Units Cumulative SCADA Systems Sold
Cumulative EMS Systems Sold
‹#› Source: Company filings.
624
1,074
417513
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010/12/31 2011/06/30
Total Installed Capacity
Attributable Installed Capacity
(MW)
Wind Farm Development Segment
• Goldwind began developing wind farms for sale to developers and investors in 2008
• Installed capacity as of June 30, 2011:
• 1,074 MW of total installed capacity (excluding 627 MW under construction)
• 513 MW of attributable installed capacity (excluding 557 MW under construction)
Total and Attributable Installed Wind Farm Capacity
‹#› Source: Company filings.
Certified for LVRT at Zero Volts
• Goldwind’s 1.5 MW unit was certified for LVRT by the China Electric Power Research Institute in 2010
• In July 2011, Goldwind’s 1.5 MW unit was certified at zero volts by third-party international engineering firm GL Garrad Hassan (GL)
• GL’s zero volt LVRT certification exceeds NEB’s standards
15
‹#›
• Goldwind manufactures WTGs designed for a variety of environments including: low wind, coastal, offshore, high altitude, high temp and low temp
• Low wind WTGs represent a significant opportunity to alleviate regional grid constraints
• China has ample Class 2 wind near major urban centers
• In low wind conditions (6-8 m/s), over 130 units of Goldwind’s 87/1500 units produced 5% more power than 82/1500 units with +98% availability
• Other low wind products: 103/2500 and 106/2500 for onshore market and 109/2500 for offshore market
Source: Company filings.
Targeting New Markets: Low Wind
Examples of low wind markets in China
‹#›
Cost Control
Innovative R&D Program
Integrated Business Model Market Segmentation
+14 yrs History
Quality Control
Strong Order Backlog: +7.3 GW
+10 GW Sales Experienced Mgmt
Team
Dominant Market Position
Sustainable Market Leadership
‹#›
Agenda
Industry Overview
Company Overview
Company Outlook
Financial Performance
‹#›
Notes: Financial data are reported in IFRS. Source: Company filings.
6,417
10,667
17,475
6,2655,172
2008 2009 2010 1H10 1H11
(RMB in millions)
1,521
2,758
4,021
1,516 1,085
23.7%25.9%
23.0%24.2%
21.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2008 2009 2010 1H10 1H11
(RMB in millions)
2011 Interim Financial Results
Revenue Gross Profit and Gross Margin
• Goldwind generated revenue of RMB 5,172 mm in 1H11 vs. RMB 6,265 mm in 1H10
• Sales volumes (MW) decreased 6.1% in 1H11 vs. 1H10
• Goldwind generated gross profit of RMB 1,085 mm in 1H11 vs. RMB 1,516 mm in 1H10 due to lower sales volumes and lower ASP
• Gross margin remained well above the industry average at 21.0% in 1H11
‹#›
Generator
Nacelle
Hub
Blades
Other components
2008 2009 2010 1H10 1H11
(RMB/kW)
-14%-14%-9%
Cost to Manufacture 1.5 MW Units
Source: Company filings.
Cost to manufacture 1.5 MW units decreased 14% in 1H11 versus 1H10
Effective Cost Reduction
‹#›
Notes: Financial data are reported in IFRS. Net profit is net profit attributable to ordinary owners. Source: Company filings.
1H11 Profitability and Margins
Gross Profit Net Profit
EBITDA EBIT
1,521
2,758
4,021
1,516 1,085
23.7%25.9%
23.0%24.2%
21.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2008 2009 2010 1H10 1H11
(RMB in millions)
906
1,746
2,290
773 425
14.1%16.4%
13.1% 12.3%
8.2%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2008 2009 2010 1H10 1H11
(RMB in millions)
1,189
2,053
2,917
1,038 688
18.5% 19.3%16.7% 16.6%
13.3%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2008 2009 2010 1H10 1H11
(RMB in millions)
1,265
2,101
3,084
1,108 789
19.7% 19.7%17.6% 17.7%
15.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2008 2009 2010 1H10 1H11
(RMB in millions)
‹#›
Notes: Quarterly financial data are reported in China GAAP. Receivables, Inventory, and Payables Days on Hand are presented on an annualized basis to reflect the seasonal nature of the wind turbine manufacturing industry. Please see appendix for a detailed table. Source: Company filings.
115 122 109 109
164
139151
98142
181
-146-184
-161 -144
-203
108 89 46 108
30 Jun 2010 30 Sep 2010 31 Dec 2010 31 Mar 2011 30 Jun 2011
+
-
=141
(Annualized Days on Hand)
Inventory DOH
Receivables DOH
Payables DOH
Cash conversion cycle:
Use
sSo
urc
es
Working Capital Management
• Goldwind actively manages working capital and has historically maintained inventory and receivables levels that are in-line with or lower than competitors
• Cash conversion cycle slowed in 2Q11 due to tighter credit and slower WTG installations
‹#›
Agenda
Industry Overview
Company Overview
Financial Performance
Company Outlook
‹#›
Tighter Monetary
Policy
Higher Raw Material
Costs
Slower Wind Farm Approvals
Stricter Standards
Pricing Competition
Long-Term Supply
Agreements New Markets
Certified to Exceed
Standards
Efficient Use of Raw
Materials
Planned Bond Issue
Expand Market Share
Continuous Technological
Innovation
Substitute Materials, Alternative
Designs
Integrated Business Model
Ongoing Certification
Program
Working Capital
Management
Production Planning and SCM
Cost Reduction Initiatives
Quality Control
Management
Lower Lifetime
Costs
Overcoming Near-Term Challenges
‹#›
1) Optimize generator to reduce the volume of rare earths
2) Testing several alternative materials to replace neodymium & dysprosium
3) Resume development of the hybrid direct-drive model
4) Monitor spot market closely: Prices have decreased +20% since July
Rare Earths Strategies
25
‹#›
Positive Catalyst Expected Outcome
Industry
State Grid to complete re-testing for LVRT and other wind turbine standards
State Grid to resume approvals of wind farm grid connections at an accelerated pace
Strong domestic support for wind power under the 12th Five-Year Plan
Increased focus on orderly development of wind farms, high quality WTGs, adding grid capacity
Improved transmission capacity from high wind to high population regions
Support continued development of GW-level wind farms
Goldwind
Increased barriers to entry due to higher WTG standards
Support a recovery in average selling price among high quality WTG manufacturers like Goldwind
Increased awareness among major wind farm operators of Goldwind’s superior quality, high efficiency, and low lifetime costs
Growth in domestic and international sales and market share
Establishment of best practices for long-term wind farm operations and maintenance
Growth in demand for turn-key solutions, such as Goldwind’s EPC, monitoring and maintenance services
Growth of distributed generation and low-wind markets near major urban centers
Growth in demand for specialized WTG models, such as Goldwind’s successful low-wind units
Continue to build upon strong track record in international markets
Accelerate Goldwind’s growing international sales volumes
Opportunities for Growth
‹#›
Innovating for a Brighter Tomorrow
• Stricter regulatory environment to result in higher barriers to entry, supporting healthy, orderly development of wind industry
• Major domestic wind farm developers increasingly seek out WTGs with lowest lifetime cost: High quality, high efficiency, high availability, low O&M costs
• Recovery in ASP for high quality WTGs
• Stable growth in domestic market
• Accelerated growth in new markets
• Offshore and 6.0 MW prototypes
• Smart grid, Wind + Solar
• Advanced power storage technology
2H11
2012 and Beyond
Interim Results
HKEx Stock Code: 2208
August 2011
‹#›
Appendix
29
‹#›
Note: Financial data are IFRS. Source: Company filings.
EBITDA and EBIT Reconciliation
Profit before tax
Add back finance costs
EBIT
Add back D&A
EBITDA
2008 2009 2010 1H10 1H11
1,146 1,991 2,800 994 621
43 63 117 43 66
1,189 2,053 2,917 1,038 688
76 47 167 71 101
1,265 2,101 3,084 1,108 789
‹#›
Cash Conversion Cycle Reconciliation Reconciliation of Days-on-Hand Data (China GAAP)
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 2009 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010 1Q11 2Q11 Sales 收入 1,147 2,661 2,925 4,006 10,738 1,855 4,450 4,588 6,703 17,596 1,856 3,339 Cost of sales (COGS) 成本 834 2,057 2,143 2,882 7,916 1,326 3,427 3,471 5,244 13,467 1,445 2,646
Sales - Last 12 Months 收入 - 过去12个月 10,738 11,446 13,235 14,898 17,596 17,596 17,596 16,485 Cost of Sales (COGS) - Last 12 Months 成本 - 过去12个月 7,916 8,408 9,777 11,106 13,467 13,467 13,586 12,806
Uses of Working Capital Notes receivable 应收票据 100 4 17 210 210 16 124 146 518 518 250 52 Accounts receivable 应收账款 2,065 2,853 3,014 2,710 2,710 2,897 5,363 6,788 7,065 7,065 7,342 9,231 Inventories 存货 3,004 3,350 4,156 2,854 2,854 4,006 4,075 5,010 4,391 4,391 6,599 8,607
Sources of Working Capital Notes payable 应付票据 500 606 1,082 1,763 1,763 712 1,863 3,420 3,483 3,483 2,166 3,507 Accounts payable 应付账款 1,626 1,778 2,339 1,998 1,998 2,833 3,558 4,365 4,648 4,648 4,994 5,351
Total receivables - Start of 12-Month Period 2,165 2,857 3,031 2,920 2,920 2,913 5,487 Total receivables - End of 12-Month Period 2,913 5,487 6,934 7,583 7,583 7,592 9,283 Average receivables - 12-Month Period 2,539 4,172 4,982 5,251 5,251 5,252 7,385
Total inventories - Start of 12-Month Period 3,004 3,350 4,156 2,854 2,854 4,006 4,075 Total inventories - End of 12-Month Period 4,006 4,075 5,010 4,391 4,391 6,599 8,607 Average inventories - 12-Month Period 3,505 3,713 4,583 3,622 3,622 5,303 6,341
Total payables - Start of 12-Month Period 2,126 2,385 3,421 3,760 3,760 3,545 5,420 Total payables - End of 12-Month Period 3,545 5,420 7,785 8,130 8,130 7,160 8,858 Average payables - 12-Month Period 2,836 3,902 5,603 5,945 5,945 5,353 7,139
Turnover and DOH based on average balance sheet items
Receivables turnover 4.5 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 2.2 Inventory turnover 2.4 2.6 2.4 3.7 3.7 2.6 2.0 Payables turnover 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.5 1.8
Receivables DOH 81 115 122 109 109 109 164 Inventory DOH 152 139 151 98 98 142 181 Payables DOH 123 146 184 161 161 144 203 Cash conversion rate 110 108 89 46 46 108 141
Turnover and DOH based on end of period balance sheet items
Receivables turnover 3.9 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.8 Inventory turnover 2.1 2.4 2.2 3.1 3.1 2.1 1.5 Payables turnover 3.2 2.4 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.5 1.9
Receivables DOH 93 151 170 157 157 157 206 Inventory DOH 174 152 165 119 119 177 245 Payables DOH 113 149 191 169 169 149 196 Cash conversion rate 154 154 144 108 108 186 255
‹#›
Notes: Financial data are IFRS. Source: Company filings.
Change in Working Capital
(RMB in millions)
Inventory decrease (increase)
Receivables decrease (increase)
Advance payments & other receivables decrease (increase)
Payables increase (decrease)
Other payables increase (decrease)
Provision increase (decrease)
Decrease (Increase) in Net Working Capital
Revenue
Change in NWC as a Percent of Revenue
2008 2009 2010 1H10 1H11
(1,156) (733) (1,443) (1,237) (4,216)
(1,830) (394) (4,416) (2,720) (1,728)
(527) 98 (340) (1) (747)
1,941 1,070 3,638 1,815 1,020
1,778 (659) (210) (1,642) (408)
98 305 583 181 169
304 (313) (2,188) (3,604) (5,910)
6,417 10,667 17,475 6,265 5,172
4.7% -2.9% -12.5% -57.5% -114.3%
‹#› Source: Company filings.
DDPM’s Advantages Result Why it matters
Intrinsic LVRT capability DDPM is grid-friendly Meets national standards, Higher availability
Full power conversion Higher power output Lower lifetime costs
Fewer moving parts Fewer mechanical failures Higher availability,
Lower lifetime costs Lower O&M costs
Technical availability >98% Higher potential capacity utilization
Higher availability, Lower lifetime costs
Lower tower-top weight Scalable to higher capacity Well-suited for offshore
Easier to transport Lower lifetime costs
DDPM’s Technological Advantages
‹#› 34
Corporate Information
Goldwind Headquarters
8 Bo Xing Yi Rd. Economic & Technological Development Zone, Beijing 100176 Website : www.goldwind.cn Email : [email protected]
Corporate Contacts
Ms. Jinru Ma Vice President and Secretary of the Board Ms. Yiqiao Zhong Ms. Kathryn Tsibulsky, CFA Investor Relations Manager Investor Relations Manager [email protected] [email protected] Tel. +86-10-6751-1888 x. 1021 Tel. + 86-10-6751-1888 x. 1022