Interdisciplinary Workshop of Comparing Regional Environmental Governance in East Asia and Europe (EE-REG)

January 24-25, 2013RIHN (Kyoto, Japan)

Governing Trans-boundary Pollution

in Northeast Asia

Esook Yoon Kwangwoon University

Contents:

◑ Trans-boundary environmental problems in Northeast Asia

◑ Environmental cooperation mechanisms

◑ Regime effectiveness

Gobi DesertTaklamakan Desert

Boh

ai

Bay

I

nner

Mon

golia

Beijing

Shanghai

East

Sea

Yello

w

Sea

Background:

End of Cold War and Political Normalization among Countries

1992 UNCED

1992 Seoul Symposium on UNCED and Prospects for the environmental Regime in the 21st Century

Trans-boundary Environmental Problems for Cooperation

▪ Acid rain(acid deposition) ▪ Marine pollution ▪ Yellow dust and sand storms (DSS)

Acid rainCause: SO2, NOx emissions (increasing fossil fuel consumptions: coal, oil)Effect: soil, forest, water source contamination, erosions, health problems

Acid rain in Northeast Asia

Research & Arguments:

Japan: ∘ Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI): 50~80% of domestic acid rain originated from China and Korea ∘ domestic sources: volcano eruptions ∘ Spindle tree blight in Nikko National Park Korea: ∘ National Institute of Environmental Research: 23% of SO2, 20% of NOx in Korea originated from China ∘ Joint research of Seoul National University and the Chinese Science Research Institute: 49% of domestic air pollution from China ∘ Changes in tree species around Seoul, erosion of Dabotap

China: ∘ Average 1-3 % of Chinese emissions is deposited in other countries

Global sulfur dioxide emissions by region : (North America = USA+Canada; East Asia = Japan, China, and South Korea). From Smith (2011).

Marine pollution

Marine Pollution in Two Regional Seas in NEA

Causes: Land based pollution: 80% ∘ coastal area development plan ∘ influx of industrial waste water and domestic sewage ∘ heavy metal pollutants flow from the Yellow River (China) up to 7.5 million tons into the Yellow Sea annually

Oil concentration: ∘ oil and gas exploration 21,000 tons of crude oil from offshore drilling in Bohai Bay ∘ heavy marine transportations ∘ emergent oil spills and discharges Marine dumping: Effects on marine eco system: frequent red tides decline in the number of fish species

Yellow Dust and Sandstorms (DSS): “yellow dragon”

Cause: land degradation and desertification in China and Mongolia

Gobi Desert

Taklamakan Desert

Yellow Dust and Sand Storms (DSS)

Causes: Desertification in Northern China and Inner Mongolia 1,739,000 km2

1950s-1970s: 1,560 km2 annually

Desertification in Mongolia 40% of territory: desert or being “desertified”

China’s annual production of yellow sand: 20 million tons

Effects: Korea: public health (sore eyes, respiratory disease), agricultural products, transportation, dust sensitive industries (semiconductor, precision machinery) US$6 billion in 2002 alone in Korea.

Japan: brown rain, yellow snow, public transportation

Dust storms attacking a village near the Gobi desert

Beijing

Seoul

Japan

1994~Joint research/

Yen loan, Green Aid Plan,

Environmental Cooperation Center

1993~Comprehensive cooperation for environmental protection

1993~Joint investigation of the Yellow Sea, Environmental Technology Center, Joint monitoring of DSS, Forest rehabilitation

Bilateral Environmental Cooperation

China

Japan Korea Korea-Mongolia: Desertification and DSS (2009)

Korea-Russia:Marine pollution (East Sea)Natural disaster early warning system

Japan-MongoliaEnviron. Policy Dialogue(2007)

Japan-Russia Environmental Cooperation Agreement

China-RussiaChina-MongoliaChina-N. Korea

Multilateral Environmental Cooperation in Northeast Asia

The Northeast Asia Sub-regional Program of Environmental Cooperation: NEASPEC, 1993

The Northwest Pacific Action Plan: NOWPAP, 1994

Tripartite Environmental Ministers Meeting: TEMM, 1999

1.the Northeast Asia Sub-regional Program of Environmental Cooperation: NEASPEC, 1993~

UNESCAP (UN Economics and Social Commission of Asia Pacific) and the Korean government Korea, Japan, China, Russia, Mongolia, North Korea Priority areas for cooperation: energy and air pollution: air pollution abatement projects from coal fired power plants in China and Mongolia with ADB fund, 1996~2011 Ecosystem management: deforestation and desertification Capacity building: Joint date collection, standardization, analysis of environmental degradation, training

UNESCAP: the interim secretariat (Incheon, Korea, since 2007) The Vision Statement for Cooperation the Core Fund (2000): voluntary contribution of member countries

2. the Northwest Pacific Action Plan: NOWPAP, 1994

▪ Initiated by UNEP’s Regional Sea Preservation Plan

▪ Two regional seas preservation: the Yellow Sea & the East Sea (Sea of Japan)

▪ Korea, China, Japan, Russia

▪ NOWPAP Activities for Cooperation -land based pollution and waste water flow -red tides and eutrophication -oil spills -biodiversity and changes in biological communities

-the Marine Litter Activity Plan (MALITA, 2005/ 2007) -Oil and HNS (Hazardous and Noxious Substances) Spill Contingency Plan (2008/ 2009) -Assessment of the current status of marine and coastal biodiversity in the NOWPAP region (climate change impacts)

∙ Trust Fund: US$500,000 each year

Korea Japan China Russia

Basic contribution 5% 5% 5% 5%

Voluntary contribution 15% 20% 3% 5%

Total (US$) 100,000(20%)

125,000(25%)

40,000(8%) 50,000(10%)

Total US$315,000, 63% of the target amount

∙ Joint Regional Coordination Unit (RCU), Pusan & Toyama

∙ Regional Activity Center (RAC) ▹Marine Environmental Emergency Preparedness and Responses (MER/RAC, Korea) ▹ Special Monitoring and Coastal Environment Assessment (CEA/RAC, Japan) ▹ Data and Information Network (DIN/RAC, China) ▹ Pollution Monitoring (POM/RAC, Russia)

∙ MOU on Regional Cooperation on Preparedness and Responses to Oil Spills, 2004 ∙ Oil Spill Contingency Plan and joint exercises

3. Tripartite Environmental Ministers Meeting, TEMM, 1999

Environmental Ministers’Meeting of Korea, Japan, China

Priority cooperation issues: -Environmental information exchange -Air pollution prevention and marine ecosystem preservation

-Development of environmental technology and transfers -DSS issue monitoring and early warning system: Korea, China, Japan, Mongolia with joint efforts with UNEP, ADB, UNESCAP, UNCCD DSS-RETA (the regional technical Assistance on DSS) project was approved by ADB, UNEP, GEF

-Climate change issue

Characteristics of environmental cooperation in Northeast Asia:

“institutionalized, but non-legally binding cooperation” Soft agreements based: Frameworks, guidelines, conclusions Entail reciprocal promises or actions for implementation, but not contain formal clauses describing the parties’ commitments as binding obligations or legal sanctions for non-compliance. 2004 MOU/NOWPAP: “best endeavors,” no obligations

Project based cooperation

Institutionalized cooperation: existence of agreements organizational structure-administrative and decision-making system

Environmental Cooperation in Europe

1.Acid Rain: Framework convention and series of binding protocols

Convention of Long Range Trans-boundary Air Pollution

(CLRTAP), 1979

1985, Helsinki Protocol (30 % SO2 emission reduction)

1988, Sofia Protocol for NOx

1994, Oslo Protocol (87% SO2 emission reduction)

1998, Aarhur Protocol

1999, Gothenburg Protocol

Marine Pollution: Framework convention and series of binding protocols

Mediterranean Action Plan, 1975 ∙ The Barcelona Convention (the Convention for the Protection of the Mediterranean Sea Against Pollution in 1975)∙ Protocols on Marine Dumping and Emergency Oil Pollution (1975)∙ Protocol Concerning Mediterranean Specially Protected Areas ∙ Athens Protocol on Land Based Pollution Source (1980). Baltic and North Sea:∙ Oslo Convention, 1972∙ Paris Convention, 1974∙ Helsinki Convention 1980/1990∙ Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North East Atlantic (OSPAR Convention), 1992

What makes difference in environmental governance of different regions?

Political cultures of regions?

Simply a stage in the progressive historical development pattern for international cooperation?

Explanatory Variables

Nature of environmental problems

Political factors: domestic environmental policy making process geopolitical factors

Economic factors: costs and benefits of environmental cooperation, environmental markets

Reliable scientific community

1. Nature of environmental problems

Unidirectional pollution transfer

Issue saliency

SO2 and NOx Emissions (thousand ton)

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Japan

SO2

1,158 795 615 708 629 n.a

Korea n.a n.a 1,611 1,532 951 408

China

n.a 13,250

14,990

18,900

19,472

20,000(27,000 in 2010)

JapanNOx

819 699 780 878 837

Korea n.a n.a 926 1,153 1,136

China 4,760 - - 12,030

10,000

Source: China Environment Yearbook; Korean National Statistical office; Ministry of Environment, Japan

Energy Structure of China

Primary energy consumption structure in China (Source: Database of the National Bureau of

Statistics, 2008)

O

Coal Demands in Northeast Asia

  Millions of tons of coal

  2000 2010 2020

China 1,225.7 1,845.6 2,751.8

Japan 152 164 169

Korea (ROK) 65.5 93.6 95.2

Korea (DPRK) 27.3 37.1 54.5

Mongolia 5.2 6.8 9.0

Russia Far East

30.1 44.4 65.1

Total 1,505.8 2,191.4 3,145.3

China: 81.4% (2000) 84.2% (2010) 87.5% (2020)

China’s Growth, Coal Consumption, SO2 Emissions: 1995-2009

Explanatory Variables:

Nature of environmental problems

Political factors: domestic environmental policy making process international factors

Economic factors: costs and benefits of environmental cooperation, environmental markets

Reliable scientific community

Position in regional environmental cooperation: Building a community in NEA Opinion leader/ Coordinator between different interests

Policy Interests: Cope with trans-boundary pollution as a victim Develop environmental industry and technology as a strategic export sector/ obtain advanced environmental technology Strong incentive to promote regional environmental cooperation, but; No strong interest in pursuing legal binging cooperation

Korea

Position in environmental cooperation in East Asia:

Promote broader regional cooperation in Asia Pacific Project based cooperation Cooperation among societal and local governments

Policy interests in environmental cooperation: Economic Concerns Leadership Building broader regional community in Asia Pacific

Japan

Basic Position in international environmental negotiations Secure sovereignty Primacy of economic development Emphasis on responsibility of EDCs for environmental problems Pursue financial and technical resources to solve domestic pollution

Negotiations position in regional environmental cooperation Bilateral cooperation to multilateral cooperation project based cooperation Stress common but differentiated responsibility Policy Interests Solving domestic environmental problems Enhance its scientific practice up to international standards Institutional capacity building

China

Non-legally binding cooperation in NEA:

Avoid high political and economic costs

Emphasis on practical performance with project basedcooperation

Separate environmental issues from geopolitical situation

Permit great flexibility and rapid progress in reachingconclusions

Effectiveness of Environmental cooperation in Northeast Asia

1. Direct effect: serve as a workable instrument for environmental protection in the region

∙ turn present and emerging environmental problems into policy interests ∙ incorporate agendas and cooperation projects into domestic environmental policies ∙ financial and technology transfers ∙ capacity building for environmental management ∙ Emerging Global-regional-national environmental policy coordination

2. Indirect effects: implications for Regional Politics

∙ reducing uncertainty (by information and personnel exchanges) ∙ deepening and broadening ties of interdependence

∙ promoting more diffused forms of reciprocity (from strict reciprocal bargaining of “give and take”analogus to a barter transaction to complex interdependences)

∙ lengthening the shadow of the future (by institutionalization of agenda setting and project implementation-potential spillover effects to other regional issue areas)

“Non-binding but institutionalized environmental cooperation in Northeast Asia”

Thank you!

Discussions:

The current form of environmental cooperation in Northeast Asia is ‘informal and non-binding. What would be the future of environmental cooperation in the region?

A 1: Non-binding environmental cooperation as simply a stage in the progressive historical developmental pattern for international cooperation, which starts with a range of non-binding guidelines, declarations, and resolutions before moving through various stages of negotiation to culminate with binding conventions and protocols.

A 2: Such non-binding cooperation as consistent with the region’s legal tradition, that is to say, its consensus-based decision- making practices and distaste for legalization.

Regional Institutional Buildings: a comparison

Europe: Council of Europe (1945), Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (1975), EU

America: Inter-American System (1826), Organization of American States, 1948 NAFTA, Mercorsor, Andean Community of Nations

Africa: Organization of African Unity(1963), African Union (2000) African Economic Community, Organization of African Unity, Community of Sahel-Saharan States etc

East Asia: Multilateral ‘dialogues’ ASEAN Regional Forum, Asia Cooperation Dialogue, Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia, Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific, Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue, Pacific Islands Forum, APEC

Southeast Asian countries: ASEAN Northeast Asia: ?

Research Methods:

Library search:

Elite Interviewing:

▪ An excellent form of date collection when the behavior of interest can best be described and explained by those who are deeply involved in political processes.

▪ Interviews government officials, researchers, and NGO activists in Japan and Korea; Chinese government officials and scholars in Japan, Korea and the US. ▪ The validity of interviewee’statement: examining their plausibility, checking for internal consistency, written documents, and counterpart interviews.

Participatory Observations:

China’s Growth and environmental implications

▸ Average growth rate for past three decades: 10% (2011: 9.2%)

▸ 2nd largest economy in the world by mid 2010

▸ World’s largest automotive market in 2009: 15 million car sales in 2009, increasing demands for used cars ▸ By 2030: expected annual GDP growth rate: 6%

▸ Manufacturing based economic structure

Broader Regional Environmental Cooperation : Asia

Pacific

1. Environmental Congress for Asia and the Pacific (ECO-ASIA):

1991

Initiated by Ministry of Environment, Japan

2. East Asia Acid Deposition Monitoring Network (EANET): 1992

Initiated by Ministry of Environment, Japan

1st intergovernmental meeting in 1998

Secretariat, decision-making body, the Network Center(the Acid

Deposition and Oxidant Research Center: ADORC) along with

47 wet deposition monitoring sites

Technical training workshops for local engineers and scientists

Energy Demands of China

World’s largest energy consuming country

-Coal consumption: 1st

- Oil consumption: 2nd

- Oil imports: 3rd

The primary energy consumption growth rates from 2000-2008: 9.5%, 3.8 times higher than world average