Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

Koivisto, R., Wessberg, N., Eerola, A., Ahlqvist, T., Kivisaari, S., Myllyoja, J. and Halonen, M.

VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):

Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making

16th- 17th October 2008

Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

Contents

Introduction

Methods of FTA and risk assessment

Prospective projects illuminating possible synergies and development challenges

Towards an integrated approach

Conclusions

Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

Methods of FTA and risk assessment

The methods of Future oriented Technology Analysis

•FTA - a common umbrella term for technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment (Rader & Porter 2006)

•Foresight (European Commission 2002): A systematic, participatory, future intelligence gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint action

•SECI model (Nonaka & Takeutchi): foresight as dynamic shared knowledge creation processes that go repeatedly through externalisation, combination, internalisation and socialisation phases in a spiral way (Eerola and Väyrynen 2002)

•Foresight is also defined as a process involving iterative periods of open reflection, networking, consultation and discussion, leading to the joint refining of future visions. Pre-foresight, recruitment, generation, action and renewal are the phases of the foresight process (Popper 2008).

•The nature of foresight methodologies varies from creative to evidence based and from expertise to interaction based methods. Popper (2008) lists and describes 33 methods

•From fixed to contingent and participatory approaches

Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

“Popper’s diamond” (Popper 2008)

Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

A systemic framework for methods (Saritas 2006)

Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

Methods of FTA and risk assessment

Risk assessment methodologies in industrial safety

•Risk analysis is one of the methods contributing to the FTA exercises

•Risk assessment and risk management concepts refer e.g. to risk assessment related to health risk, toxicology, ecology, food safety or industrial use, but also economical analysis -> here risk assessment is in the context of industrial safety

•Complex systems, where possible accidents may have far-reaching consequences.

•Strong development in the 1970s -> The use of risk analysis became a standard

•Different safety management standards guide the implementation of industrial safety at the plant level: BS 8800, OHSAS 18001, ISO Guides (ISO 2002 and ISO 1999), and IEC standards

•Various risk analysis methods: 62 methods reported by Tixier in 2002

•Hazard and Operability study (IEC 2001) is one of the most important methods used in industry

•Resilience - the new safety paradigm

Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

Rrisk analysis, risk assessment and risk management

Hazard/Risk identification

Hazard/Risk estimation,Probability,

Consequences.

Scope definition

Risk evaluation

Risk reduction/control

Risk management

Risk analysis

Proposals for actions

Riskassessment

Ref. IEC 1995

Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

Prospective projects illuminating synergies

Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based InfrastructureSystems - IRRIIS

Managing opportunities, risks and uncertainties related to new businesses - INNORISK

Climate change adaptation and risk assessmetn - CES

A group of other projects

Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

Case projects in view of dirrerent dimensions

IRRIIS

Consensual

InformativeExtensive

Exclusive

Fixed Autonomous

Instrumental

Diverse

INNORISK

CES

The most VTT foresight activities analysedby Könnölä et al. (forthcoming)

Autonomous

AutonomousAutonomous

Fixed

Fixed Fixed

Exclusive

Exclusive

Exclusive

Extensive

Extensive Extensive

Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

Towards an integrated approach

What is in common?•Start with the scope definition•The generation phase of the FTA process resembles the hazard/risk identification phase in risk assessment - also in terms of the large methodological variety•Risk estimation and FTA action phases are arranging the knowledge to be used in decision making

Contingent and holistic processes•Because of the global networks risk management (RM) can not be based on traditional 'identify the risks and eliminate them' -thinking (normative RM)•Resilience engineering: a sure system tolerates errors or failures and protects itself against the consequences of such events (adaptive RM)•Foresighting Impact Assessment - the risks are considered as emerging already in the innovation process, and cover such areas as investment, communication, trust and general development risks (VTT's new developments, proactive RM strategy)•Integration with foresight -> more holistic RA and RM

Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

RA and FTA methods vs. time frame

Process/place specific risk assessment

Case/technology/issue specific risk assessment

Short time

Long time

Fixed approach Contingent approach

Technology assessment

Technology foresight

New emerging risk assessment

Technology forecast

Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

Lessons learned from the case projects

IRRIIS and CES: risk assessment methods are too detailed for analysing vague scenarios

INNORISK: risk mapping may be better to be applied

Similar basic assumptions in holistic future-oriented technology assessment or foresight methodologies and in holistic proactive risk assessment where safety is created in the process by evolving the intrinsic safety potential of the process

Future and risks are ontologically unknown. Therefore we are forced to collect and construct the knowledge, create the understanding and sharing of it, in networks of people.

Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

Conclusions

Common characteristics of FTA and Risk assessment:•Seek to manage the uncertainty of potential futures•Create knowledge to help decision making•Information on changes in environment, business and society in general is crucial for both assessments

Methodologically•Models, workshops, brainstrorms, interviews, literature reviews..•Risk assessment methods address the systematic working methods more thoroughly•Risk assessment requires more detailed description of the target•A shift towards to a more contingent approach in RA - analogical with FTA•To be able to assess emerging risks new methods applying the sufficient features of as well risk assessment as FTA approaches are welcome

Future risk assessment•Cross-boundary thinking and integration of FTA and theories of networks and organizational culture to create new methodologyand tools as well as to carry out the risk assessments