Integrated Methods and Models for Assessing Coastal Impacts and Adaptation to Climate

Change in Fiji and the Cook Islands(AIACC Project SIS09)

Conducted by:

Pacific Centre for Sustainable Environment and Development (PACE), The University of the South Pacific

In collaboration with:

International Global Change Institute (IGCI), The University of Waikatoand the

South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)

Three Linked Objectives

1. New tools for integrated assessment

2. Case study applications

3. Capacity building

Focus on: Local scale assessment Coastal settlements Risks from variability and extremes

New Tools for Integrated Assessment

Mean Annual Precipitation 2070

Mean Annual Precipitation 2070

OBJECTIVE 1:

• Build upon the foundation of models already developed for islands of the Pacific

Suitability for Taro Growing

For example, the existing FijiCLIM model:

• Human dimensions components• Capacity for local-scale modelling• Scenarios of future development and land use change• Local sea-level rise scenario generator• Improved coastal impact modelling• Adaptation analysis• Economic tools

New Model Features

OBJECTIVE 1 (con’t.)

Progress…

OBJECTIVE 1 (con’t.)

Flexibility to choose area and resolution and easily input local spatial climate patterns and site data

• Human dimensions components• Capacity for local-scale modelling• Scenarios of future development and land use change• Local sea-level rise scenario generator• Improved coastal impact modelling• Adaptation analysis• Economic tools

Progress…

OBJECTIVE 1 (con’t.)

• Human dimensions components• Capacity for local-scale modelling• Scenarios of future development and land use change• Local sea-level rise scenario generator• Adaptation analysis• Economic tools

Combine global, regional and local sea-level components

Local trends

Suva tide gauge dataGlobal Sea-level projectionsGlobal Sea-level projections

Case Study Applications

OBJECTIVE 2:

• Collect data, develop baselines• Test and validate methods and models• Conduct integrated V&A assessments

OBJECTIVE 2 (con’t.)

Viti Levu, Fiji

Natadola Beach

Veivatuloa

• Tourism site • Undeveloped• Erosion and storm surge risks

Navua

• Town site• Growth potential• Low-lying• Riverine and coastal flood risks

• Traditional Fijian village • Experiencing erosion

Case Study Applications

Aitutaki, Cook Islands

• Rapidly developing tourism• Experiencing erosion• Storm surge risks• Risks to water supply

Case Study Applications OBJECTIVE 2 (con’t.)

Capacity Building

• In-country training and participation• Transfer of data and tools• Incorporate methods and models into the USP

V&A Programme

OBJECTIVE 3:

Stakeholder engagement: Country Team Approach

OBJECTIVE 3 (con’t)

Local council & leaders

Other climate projects (e.g. CIDA)

Private sector

National teamAIACC support

Scientific expertise

Data

Methods & tools

Aitutaki Climate Change TeamSIS09 Team

Improved local, risk-based assessments

A locally-driven adaptation process

- SIS09 -

• Developed framework for local-scale modelling• Developing sea-level scenario generator• Identified case study sites• Begun process of stakeholder engagement • Identified local risks and priorities• Data collection in progress

SUMMARY OF PROGRESS