integrated life cycle management
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Integrated Life Cycle Managementg(ILCM)
Charles A. MengersSenior Project Manager
2011 Second Utility Workshop on U.S. Nuclear Plant Life Extension and DeploymentFebruary 24 2011February 24, 2011
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Subject
Wh t ill it t t f l d li bl t lWhat will it cost to safely and reliably operate a nuclear plant beyond the original and extended license period?
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Background
• Industry initiatedS• Standardized data and evaluation process
• Identification SSC refurbishment / replacement – Above baseline modifications– Above baseline modifications– T+5 to end of operations– Outcomes determined to minimize cost and maximize
reliabilityreliability• Forecast and Collaborate• EPRI
– Integrated Life Cycle Management (ILCM)– Long Term Operation (LTO)
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Vision
The Integrated Life Cycle Management (ILCM) project will:g y g ( ) p j
• Provide a standard methodology to support effective decision-making for the long-term management of selected station assets.
• Provide technology to provide a sound basis forcontin ed operation of the c rrent n clear plants atcontinued operation of the current nuclear plants at high performance levels through 2030 and beyond.
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Approach
Technical lens:• Identify major plant equipment (SSC) that drive cost (high
cost – high consequence)U d t d SSC b h i d t i• Understand SSC behavior due to aging
• Determine probability of failure over time to end of plant lifelife
• Roll up into plant level asset• Develop evaluation process for optimizing long range
strategy optimum scenario for long range plan
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Basic Principles
1 B ild i ti th d d t l t1. Build on existing methods and tools – we are not starting from scratch.
2 Utilize a fundamental understanding of how degradation2. Utilize a fundamental understanding of how degradation occurs.
3. Compared against OE from operating nuclear plants.4. Failure curves will be plant-specific.5. Benchmarked against pilot plants.
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Concept of the Methodology
ATE
"Bath Tub Curve"
Component Aging ModelComponent Aging Models are developed for selected equipment and structures Wearout
HA
ZAR
D R
A
Run-in Design Life
Component Aging Model
COMPONENT LIFE
CLE
CO
ST
PR
OB
ABIL
ITY
Rep
lace
men
t
Component Cost Models are developed – considering
l t t
Component Cost Model
LIFE
CYC
LIFE EXPECTANCY
Design Life FAIL
UR
EPreplacement costs,
maintenance costs, and consequences of failure.
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Integrated Life Cycle Cost
ILCC component models - Integrate the Component Cost Model - LCMIntegrated Life Cycle Cost (ILCC)
probability of failure from the aging model with costs and consequences to determine optimum replacement times
FE C
YCLE
CO
ST
ILU
RE
PR
OB
ABIL
ITY
Rep
lace
men
t
LI
LIFE EXPECTANCY
Design Life FA
$39
RA
TE
"Bath Tub Curve"
Component Aging Model
$36
$37
$38
$39
Millions)
Base Case
Optimum Time of Replacement
Wearout
HA
ZAR
D R
COMPONENT LIFE
Run-in Design Life
$
$33
$34
$35 ILCC
(M
Replacement too early
Higher Cost due to Forced Outage
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$32
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035Year
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Apply across Plant or Fleet
Integrate individual component and structure replacement strategies for plant or fleet wide
Integrated Life Cycle Cost (ILCC) Integrated Life Cycle Management (ILCM)
p g passessment
E C
OST
OB
ABIL
ITY
plac
emen
t
Component Cost Model - LCM
ReplaceRefurbishMaintain
LIFE
CYC
LE
LIFE EXPECTANCY
Design Life FAIL
UR
EP
RO
Rep Augmented Maint.
Monitor
RD R
ATE
"Bath Tub Curve"
Component Aging Model
9© 2011 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Wearout
HAZA
R
COMPONENT LIFE
Run-in Design Life
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Two Phased Approach
Phase 1:Develop methods for determining long term likelihood• Develop methods for determining long-term likelihood of failure curves.
• Apply to selected structures and components.pp y pPhase 2:• Collaboration with EDF • Assess existing optimization methods • Refine models to provide desired results.
P f il t• Perform pilot• Move to deployment
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Project Deliverables
1 Methods and data to calculate failure probability1. Methods and data to calculate failure probability.2. Industry data base for long-term component and
structure aging.3. Methodology to calculate optimum replacement time.4. Pilot results.5. EPRI Technical Report.
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Success
• Reliability data– Method proven for in scope SSCs (High Cost/High Consequence)– Simplified template for medium cost/medium consequence SSCs
• ILCM DatabaseILCM Database– Database structured, defined, tested and working
• ILCM/EDF model reconciled, changed, tested, and working
• EPRI Guideline • User accepted and incorporated into their decision• User accepted and incorporated into their decision-
making process
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Together Shaping the Future of ElectricityTogether…Shaping the Future of Electricity
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