instructor: chris bemis random matrix in finance understanding and improving optimal portfolios...
DESCRIPTION
1 23 Data 300 stocks 546 weeks Analysis σ, λ, Q Reconstruction Optimize mean varianceTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Instructor:Chris Bemis
Random Matrix in FinanceUnderstanding and improving Optimal Portfolios
Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei Shao, Zhengwei Liu
![Page 2: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Purpose and Phenomenon of Project
Finding optimal weights
• Covariance matrix• Marchenko-Pustur to fit data• PCA reconstruction
The impact of near-zero eigenvalues in mean-variance optimization
![Page 3: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
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Data300 stocks 546 weeks
Analysisσ, λ, Q
ReconstructionOptimize mean variance
![Page 4: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
1 Data
• Bouchard’s idea
• Marchenko-Pustur Law
![Page 5: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
AnalysisEigenvalue Decomposition of Fully Allocated MVO
![Page 6: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Data Selection300 stocks Х 546 weeks
Criterion:
•Return history over 10 years of weekly data
•Biggest market capitalization
![Page 7: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
DataFiltered Variance-Covariance Matrix
![Page 8: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Data Selection300 stocks Х 546 weeks
Why some of eigenvalues close to 0?
•Some original return data are extremely small
•Random effect
•Collinearity among 300 stocks
The impact of near-zero eigenvalues in MVO
![Page 9: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
2 Analysis of Results
• Empirical distribution of eigenvalues
• Marchenko-Pustur Law
• Analysis
![Page 10: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Correlation Matrix
Best Fit M-P Distribution
Filter Noisy Data
Goals:To eliminate the random noise in the covariance matrix
Analysis Procedures
![Page 11: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Procedure
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Correlation Matrix
Distribution of Eigenvalues
Best Fit M-P Distribution
Filter Noisy Data
Analysis Procedures
![Page 12: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Analysis Ideas
Random & Not Random Marchenko-Pastur Law
![Page 13: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Analysis Ideas
![Page 14: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Analysis Minimization
![Page 15: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Analysis Minimization
![Page 16: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Fitting result
![Page 17: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Analysis
![Page 18: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Analysis of largest λ
•The largest eigenvalue λ=118.3564
![Page 19: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Analysis Total variance explained by noise
![Page 20: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
3 Reconstruction
•Filtered Variance-Covariance Matrix
•An Example of Mean-Variance Optimization
![Page 21: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
ReconstructionTheory
![Page 22: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
ReconstructionTheory
![Page 23: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
AnalysisFiltered Variance-Covariance Matrix
![Page 24: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
ReconstructionCalculated Filtered Optimal Weight
![Page 25: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
ReconstructionCalculated Filtered Optimal Weight
![Page 26: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Weight from filtered Sample• Less volatility• Lower concentration• No extreme shorting
Weight from Sample• Bigger volatility• Higher concentration• Extreme shorting
ReconstructionComparison the weight
![Page 27: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
ReconstructionSample Weight and Filtered Weight Comparison
![Page 28: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
ReconstructionSample Weight and Filtered Weight Comparison
Expected Return from Sample Covariance Matrix is
Expected Return from Sample Covariance Matrix is
![Page 29: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
ReconstructionCumulative Value of Filtered Portfolio and Sample Portfolio Per Month
![Page 30: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
ReconstructionCumulative Value of Filtered Portfolio and S&P 500 Per Month
![Page 31: Instructor: Chris Bemis Random Matrix in Finance Understanding and improving Optimal Portfolios Mantao Wang, Ruixin Yang, Yingjie Ma, Yuxiang Zhou, Wei](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081605/5a4d1bc37f8b9ab0599d3bd1/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Questions