Institution of Civil Engineers Energy Conference 2016

Registered charity number 210252. Charity registered in Scotland number SC038629.

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2016

Energy Conference 2016

Institution of Civil Engineers Energy Conference 2016

Johnny Gowdy Regen South West

Energy Generation in the Region – a REGEN SW perspective

Institution of Civil Engineers (Wales/Cymru) Energy Conference - 2016 A regional perspective of future energy scenarios Johnny Gowdy

27 April 2016

South West – distributed generation growth scenarios to 2030

Growth of renewable energy in the South West

Implications for networks

Grid constraint mitigation and solutions

• Queue management/capacity recovery

• Alternative connection agreements – timed and soft-intertrip

• Active Network Management

• Consortia/grid collaboration

• Smart solutions e.g. demand side response (sunshine tariff)

• New demand – e.g. electric vehicles

• Energy storage solutions

• Strategic Grid Investment Options

Current mitigation measures

Future or more progressive solutions

Strategic grid investment – allowed??

“Earlier this year, Ofgem through its Quicker and Efficient Connections consultation, set out options for enabling more anticipatory investment, which could help speed up connection times by creating capacity earlier and sought views on other ways of improving the connection process.” Amber Rudd to ECC Select Committee Sept 2015

Ofgem - Consultation for Quicker and Efficient Connections - opens potential options for strategic or anticipatory grid investment

Key Challenges • Predicting future DG growth and demand

over the longer term • Identifying most effective investment

opportunities • Ensuring “least risk” investment • Build and evidence business case • Implementing a cost recovery model

Strategic Investment Options Study

National Grid - Future Energy Scenarios

Baseline to scenario projections

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South west WPD licence area solar PV capacity growth scenarios 2015-2030

Practically accessible reso

Naturally available resou

Technically available reso

Physically available resou

Practically accessible reso

Practically accessible reso

MOD and other stakehold

Noise mitigation

Economically available co

Deployment and supply c

Local ambition

Baseline and pipeline analysis

Future energy development

potential

Apply scenarios to local situation

Scenario projections

Consider impacts of: - New technology - New business models - Demand growth - Future energy cost scenarios - Devolved decision making

Consumer Power

Gone Green

Slow Progression No

Progression

Existing DG technologies Solar PV - Ground mounted Solar PV – Rooftop mounted Wind < 0.5MW small scale and domestic Wind > 0.5MW large scale Hydropower Energy from waste Anaerobic digestion

Emerging and New Technologies

Offshore wind/floating wind Geothermal Tidal stream Wave Energy Tidal range

Demand technologies Electric vehicles Heat pumps

Energy Storage Consumer support – ‘own use’ Generation support – ‘curtailment and grid compliance’ Network support – ‘network ancillary services’

Technologies assessed

Geographic mapping and scope

• South west licence area • 38 BSPs areas

0100200300400500600700800900

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Onshore wind capacity growth scenarios 2015-2030

Historic Pipeline Gone greenConsumer power Slow progression No progression

Current Baseline Progress to date taken from extensive Regen SW DG project database

Growth Scenarios (to 2030) Growth dependent on FES scenarios: Gone Green Consumer Power Slow Progression No Progression

Pipeline Projection (to 2017/2020) Analysis of current projects in the planning system and with grid connection agreements. Uplift on additional smaller projects estimated.

Pipeline Projection

Current Baseline

Project output

Growth Scenarios

Onshore wind: resource areas

• Most of resource along northern arc of region, particularly Cornwall, North Devon, Torridge and Somerset

• Total resource potential of 4 GW- a figure no scenario comes close to reaching

• 10 BSP areas account for 84 percent of total developable land

Onshore wind: historic trends

• Distributed smaller projects

• Concentrated larger projects

• Somerset has had much interest in wind, without success

• Strong concentration on northern arc of region, particularly Cornwall, North Devon and Torridge

Onshore wind: data summary

• 95 MW in pipeline

• Graph illustrates the implication of price parity occurring later

• Only small scale (<500 kW) growth in No Progression

• Consumer Power and Slow Progression grow similarly, with different scales of development

Scenario 2015 baseline (MW) 2020 pipeline (MW) 2020 to 2030 Projection

(MW) Total (MW)

Gone green 237 95 451 800 Consumer power 237 95 218 550 Slow progression 237 95 201 550 No progression 237 95 63 395

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Onshore wind capacity growth scenarios 2015-2030

Historic Pipeline Gone greenConsumer power Slow progression No progression

Onshore wind scenario capacity growth

Onshore wind: BSP Geographical distribution

• Growth of onshore wind predominantly along northern arc of region

• Lower growth in some southern BSPs

• strong difference in scenarios due to planning environment circumstances

Solar PV: ground mounted resource area

• Solar farms follow grid availability

• Resource areas (green) limited by environmental and technical constraints, including being with 2 km of the >33 kV grid

• Most projects outside either very small or very big

• Projects distributed across all local authorities and BSPs

South Wales licence area

• South Wales licence area covers nearly 12,000 km²

• 44 Bulk Supply Point (BSP) areas concentrated in the south of the licence area

• 16 unitary local authorities within licence area

• Includes very dense urban populations and extremely rural regions

• Huge potential for many renewable energy technologies

• Interesting current and future renewable energy policies (TAN8)

An important number

403.19

Radical new approach

“The energy sector is undergoing a fundamental, structural change. We are moving away from the linear ‘one-way’ flow of electricity from large generators, through transmission and distribution networks, to passive consumers. Instead we are now moving to a system where generation is distributed and more variable, where consumers can better monitor and manage their energy use, and where new technologies and business models are emerging.” Quote above from OFGEM Sept 2015 “Making the electricity system more flexible and delivering the benefits for consumers- position paper”

National Infrastructure Commission & Treasury

"Our existing power stations are closing down and their replacements will be radically different as we de-carbonise supply to reduce emissions. Lord Adonis, chairman of the NIC

“the government will lay the foundations for a smart power revolution, with support for innovation in storage and other smart technologies, and an increased level of ambition on interconnection, which the NIC estimates could unlock benefits to UK consumers of up to £8 billion per year” George Osborne 16 March 2016 Budget

Structural Changes

Centralised model Decentralised model

Distributed Generation

Storage

Other opportunities

Inter-connectors

Heat

Electricity Gas (inc hydrogen)

Storage

Storage

Storage

“Multi-vector” – energy conversion and integration

Electrification of transport

Reasons to be cheerful

1) Rate of CO2 emission growth slightly lower despite economic growth and low oil price

2) International investors & corporations are taking the lead

3) Uruguay 4) Technology, innovation and

ingenuity 5) The power of cities, regions,

communities and individuals.

Pathway to parity market insight series

Energy Storage: Towards a commercial

model Supported by: Demand side response

trial in Wadebridge

Regen Work

Implications for networks

Change will come.. • New technology • Markets and business models • Energy storage • Demand side response • Regulatory and policy

but here and now……

• Managing grid constraints • Queue management • Alternative connection agreements • Active network mgt • Build case for strategic investment • Trial and demonstrate

Oil price - the energy story of 2014

Following a 4 year period with oil prices well over $110 bbl Brent crude hit $50 bbl 7 Jan 2015 Industry response – • Investment cut • Job losses • Decommissioning • Merger and acquisition