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TRANSCRIPT
Innovative Solutions to Curtailment Lessons from the Aloha State
www.sepapower.org
Purpose of the Presentation
• Outline how the Hawaiian Electric Companies are changing practices to better manage and mitigate curtailment issues for large wind and solar projects
• Part One – Enhanced Modeling Tools • Part Two – New Concept for PPA Contracts
• Speakers • Dora Nakafuji – Director, Renewable Energy Planning,
Hawaiian Electric • Greg Shimokawa – Energy Contract Manager, Hawaiian
Electric • John Sterling – Senior Director, Research & Advisory
Services, SEPA
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Contrac(ngfortheFuture:Innova(veSolu(onstoCurtailment
HawaiianElectricCompaniesGregShimokawaDoraNakafuji
September14,2016
SolarPowerInternaEonalLasVegas,NV
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There’sNoPlaceLikeHawai‘i
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There’sNoPlaceLikeHawai‘i
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OpportuniEesandChallenges
" AbundanceofRenewableEnergyResources
" 100%RPSmandate" Islandgridspresentuniquechallenges– IncreasedCurtailmentRisks– HawaiianElectricCompaniesserviceterritoriesencompassfiveindependentsystems
– Needtomanage/reducecustomerbills
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Hawai‘i’sNewRenewableEnergyGoals
OnJune8,2015Gov.DavidIgesignedAct97intolaw,givingHawaiʻithemostambiUouscleanenergygoalsinthecountry–requiring100percentofelectricitysalestocomefromrenewableresourcesby2045.In2015,theHawaiianElectriccompaniesachieved23.2percentnetelectricitysalesfromrenewableenergyresources
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RisingwiththeSun8
IncreasedDistributedGeneraUon(DG)resourcesleadtoincreasedcurtailmentriskforuUlity-scalerenewableresourcesMoreMWofroo\opDGthanourlargestpowerplant
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ReducingOurDependencyonOil9
Reducingdependencyonoilandachievinga100percentRPSwillrequire:" adiversepor^olioofrenewable
energyresources" effecUveuseoftechnologies
suchasenergystorage" efficientenergyuse" resilient,modernpowergrids
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StateoftheState:CurtailmentRiskinHawai‘i
" IncreasingpenetraUonofdistributedPVhascreatedasurplusofdayUme,non-dispatchablegeneraUononalloftheHawaiianIslands
" ThisgeneraUon,whichisnotdirectlycontrolledbytheuUliUes,iseffecUvely“musttake”;thatis,theuUliUesmustmanageotherconvenUonalandrenewablegeneraUonresourcesaroundtheoutputofthesesystems
" EachislandmustbalanceloadandgeneraUononitsown–nointerconnectedsystembetweentheislandsexists
" BecauseofdistributedsolarpenetraUon,someislandsareprojecUngcurtailmentashighas20%to50%inthenearfuture
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ChangingHowWeThink" 100%RPSrequiresamindsetshi\
– Over-procurementofintermihentgeneraUon– “Must-take”resourcesmayseeincreasedcurtailment
" NewcontracUngapproachescanaddresstheseissues– Resourceassessment– Facilityavailability– OperaUonalflexibility– RiskallocaUon
" Needtomovebeyondthemindsetandlanguageof“curtailment”infavorof“dispatchability”
" NeedforrobustmodelingtosupportnewcontracUngstructures
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IncreasedForecasEng/DataRequirements
" MorerobustforecasUnganddata-drivenanalysisrequiredtosupportthesenewcontracUngmechanisms– SWIFTForecasUngandVisualizaUontools– DREAMSforSystemOperators– SEAMSforSHINEStechnologies
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WhereDoWeWanttoBE?
" DiversifiedServices" EngagedCustomerswithValueAdded
" SaUsfiedRegulators" SustainableCostsandMargins
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OurCurrentCondiEon
What’sOurNewState?
Typical Hawaii load profile – Evening Peaking “Bessie the Elephant”
“MeetNessie”
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Reality
16OrchestraEngReliableFoundaEonforAlternaEves
ReliableFoundaUonEnablingCustomer“Plug-n-Play”
Opportunityfordiverseresources-100%RPS
17Por]olioBasedApproachforRenewableIntegraEon
" Decision-basedanalysistoassessimpacts
" Re-training&re-toolingtheworkforce
" Fosteringastrongworkforcepipeline
Modeling/ValidaUon
WorkforceDev.&Interns
FeederMonitoring
ResourceForecast&Monitoring
NewEnergyMgtTech
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SWIFTBird’sEyeView–SituaEonalAwareness
CloudyDayPa_ern ClearDayPa_ern
NotoverylowproducUon<30%High,steady–100%
18 Source:HawaiianElectric&AWSTruepower
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DrySeason WetSeason
AnnualAverageGHI
Canresultin30%energyproducUondifferencebetweenwetanddryseason
ResourceLocaUons
LocaEon&SeasonsMa_er–EveninHawaii
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SustainRe-Tooling&DevelopmentofWorkforce
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Non-tradi*onalu*lityfieldequipment
21“Seeing&ValidaEng”DGRampImpacts
YesterdayisnotagoodpredictorofTodayanymore
40-50MWJumpinLoadCorrespondingdropinPV
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SWIFTForecast
Source:HawaiianElectric&AWSTruepower
22See&TrendingDistribuEonHotspots
CircuitTrend
SolarResource
Figure2.5.ClusterBFeederMap.
G
G
Existing Generators
Additional Generators
DGIntegratedModelOnlineLVM
Source:HawaiianElectric
%Pen= 𝐼𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑀𝑊/𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝐷𝑎𝑦𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑀𝑖𝑛 𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑
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BringingitAllTogether:EMSIntegraEonDistributedResourceEnergyAnalysis&Management(DREAMS)forGridOpera(ons
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SWIFT
Source:HECO
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PoleS
B
SB
SB
SEAMSforSHINES–UElity&CustomerInterface
“SEAMS”Architecture
TradiUonalUUlity&SCADA
CustomerSide
25SystemVisibilityThroughEdge-of-NetworkTechnologies
RenewableResource
Monitoring&ForecasUng(SWIFT)
REDataAnalyUcs&VisualizaUon
RE&DGInfrastructureModeling
OpsIntegraUon&TransformaUonalTechnologies
TechnicalOutreachCollaboraUons&
WorkforceDevelopment
LVM
STEMDistributedStorage
SWIFTForecasUng
SODAR
Analysistools&models
Real-Umecustomerdata&devices
Event
GridcoDGcontrol&monitoring
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PartnershipwithSEPA/Sco_Madden
" CollaboraUontoworkonexploringanewdispatchablerenewablegeneraUonPPAmodel– AwarenessofHawai‘i’suniquechallenges
− A“postcardfromthefuture”– SEPA’sreputaUonasanindependent“trustedpla^ormforeducaUon,researchandcollaboraUon”
– ScohMadden’senergyindustryexperience– ConnecUonswithadiversegroupofindustrystakeholders
What new types of contracting can be pursued to better manage and balance the risk that curtailment will continue to present to Hawai’i?
Problem Statement
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www.sepapower.org
Project Overview
• SEPA and ScottMadden brought in to help identify innovative solutions
• Considered over a dozen new procurement and contracting models that could help address curtailment risk
• Deep dived on three specific approaches: • Capacity and Energy PPAs • Time-of-Day Pricing • Dispatchable Renewable Generation (preferred
approach)
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www.sepapower.org
Project Overview: Quantitative Review
• Assumed a 10 MW solar installation with an LCOE of $100/MWh as a baseline project
• Considered risk from multiple vantage points (both IPP and customers) via quantitative metrics
• Project NPV • Debt Service Coverage Ratio • Effective PPA Price ($/MWh delivered)
• Reviewed two scenarios for how projects may be priced • No anticipated curtailment • 20% anticipated curtailment
• Reviewed four scenarios for how actual curtailment impacts economics
• 0% / 10% / 20% / 30% actual curtailment
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www.sepapower.org
Impact of New Structures on Project NPV
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($2.0)
($1.5)
($1.0)
($0.5)
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
25%CapacityPayment,NoAnUcipatedCurtailment
25%CapacityPayment,20%AnUcipatedCurtailment
75%CapacityPayment,NoAnUcipatedCurtailment
75%CapacityPayment,20%AnUcipatedCurtailment
ToD-South-FacingSolar
DispatchableRenewableGeneraUon
ProjectN
PV($
M)
ProjectNPV@Risk
NoActualCurtailment 30%ActualCurtailment
CurrentState-NoCurtailmentRisk CurrentState-30%CurtailmentRisk
AllmodelsconsideredreducedthedownsideriskfordevelopersonprojectNPV
www.sepapower.org
Impact of New Structures on DSCR*
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AllmodelsconsideredreducedthedownsideriskfordevelopersonprojectDSCR
0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.80
25%CapacityPayment,NoAnUcipatedCurtailment
25%CapacityPayment,20%AnUcipatedCurtailment
75%CapacityPayment,NoAnUcipatedCurtailment
75%CapacityPayment,20%AnUcipatedCurtailment
ToD-South-FacingSolar
DispatchableRenewableGeneraUon
DSCR
DebtServiceCoverageRaEo@Risk
NoActualCurtailment 30%ActualCurtailment
CurrentState-NoCurtailmentRisk CurrentState-30%CurtailmentRisk
*DebtServiceCoverageRaUo(DSCR)representsthelikelihoodthataproject’sfuturerevenuestreamscancoveritsdebtobligaUons;frequentlyusedbylenderstosetrateswhenfinancingaproject
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Impact of New Structures on Effective $/MWh for Delivered Energy*
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AllmodelsconsideredreducedtheEffecEve$/MWhforcustomersinhighcurtailmentsituaEons
$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$140$160
25%CapacityPayment,NoAnUcipatedCurtailment
25%CapacityPayment,20%AnUcipatedCurtailment
75%CapacityPayment,NoAnUcipatedCurtailment
75%CapacityPayment,20%AnUcipatedCurtailment
ToD-South-FacingSolar
DispatchableRenewableGeneraUon
NetEffe
cEve$/M
Wh
EffecEve$/MWhforDeliveredEnergy
NoActualCurtailment 30%ActualCurtailment
CurrentState-NoCurtailmentRisk CurrentState-30%CurtailmentRisk
*EffecEve$/MWh=Theall-inpricethatcustomerspayforenergydelivered,a\erconsideraUonsforfixedandvariablecosts,andpaymentsforundeliveredenergy
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DispatchableRenewableGeneraEonModel:KeyConcepts
Intent:Tomaximizevaluefromfuturevariablegenera*onresourcesbyincreasingtheopera*onalflexibilitynecessarytoop*mizedispatchoftheCompanysystem." Companyrighttofulldispatchability" MoveawayfromreversechronologicalseniorityrestricUons
" Benefitfromallavailablegridservices
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QuesEons/Comments??
Mahalo
Dora Nakafuji, PhD [email protected] Director of Renewable Energy Planning Grid Technologies Hawaiian Electric Company
For more information please contact:
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Greg Shimokawa [email protected] Energy Contract Manager Renewable Acquisition Hawaiian Electric Company