innovative approaches for addressing floods katie hirschboeck & kate sammler laboratory of...
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![Page 1: Innovative Approaches for Addressing Floods Katie Hirschboeck & Kate Sammler Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research Tree-Ring Day Earth Science Week March 29,](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062806/5697bfdf1a28abf838cb2c47/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Innovative Approaches for Addressing Floods
Katie Hirschboeck & Kate Sammler
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
Tree-Ring DayEarth Science Week
March 29, 2010
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Hirschboeck Research Themes:
Extreme High and Low Flow Years in Upper Colorado & Salt-Verde Basins based on Reconstructed Streamflow* 1521-1964
< 10th Percentile < 25th and ≥ 10th Percentile ≥ 25th and ≤ 75th Percentile > 75th and ≤ 90th Percentile > 90th Percentile
Upper Colorado River Basin
(UCRB) ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
Salt -Verde -Tonto River Basin(SVT)
1520
1530
1540
1550
1560
1570
1580
1590
UC
RB
↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
SV
T
1600
1610
1620
1630
1640
1650
1660
1670
1680
1690
UC
RB
↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
SV
T
1700
1710
1720
1730
1740
1750
1760
1770
1780
1790
UC
RB
↔ * ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ * ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
SV
T
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
* Reconstructed annual water year discharge
UC
RB
↔ HH years (high flow in both basins)
↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ LL years (low flow in both basins)
SV
T
LH = Low in UCRB / High in SVT
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
HL = High in UCRB / Low in SVT (no occurrences)
Figure 15 – LL and HH water years with quantile time series
Extreme High and Low Flow Years in Upper Colorado & Salt-Verde Basins based on Reconstructed Streamflow* 1521-1964
< 10th Percentile < 25th and ≥ 10th Percentile ≥ 25th and ≤ 75th Percentile > 75th and ≤ 90th Percentile > 90th Percentile
Upper Colorado River Basin
(UCRB) ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
Salt -Verde -Tonto River Basin(SVT)
1520 1530 1540 1550 1560 1570 1580 1590
UCRB↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
SVT1600 1610 1620 1630 1640 1650 1660 1670 1680 1690
UCRB↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
SVT1700 1710 1720 1730 1740 1750 1760 1770 1780 1790
UCRB↔ * ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ * ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
SVT1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890
* Reconstructed annual water year discharge
UCRB ↔ HH years (high flow in both basins)
↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ LL years (low flow in both basins)
SVT LH = Low in UCRB / High in SVT
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960
HL = High in UCRB / Low in SVT (no occurrences)
Figure 15 – LL and HH water years with quantile time series
Tree Rings& Drought
Hydroclimatology
1670 = missing ringwide rings
shift to narrower rings
1670 = missing ring1670 = missing ringwide rings
shift to narrower rings
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The “HIRSCHBO” LAB
Co-advising with Holly Hartmann:Jeannette EstesM.S. Hydrology & Water Resources
Volunteer: Nazanin BabamarandiFormerly: Iran MeteorologicalOrganization
Ela CzyzowskaPh.D. ProgramArid Lands ResourcesSciences
How can I remove these
trees?
Kate SammlerPh.D. ProgramSchool of Geography& Development
How would I classify THIS
flood!?
Jennifer (Welti) LeeM.S. Atmospheric
Sciencesin absentia
National Weather Service Forecaster, Hunstville AL
How are climate patterns & daily weather maps linked?
Ongoing collaboration:
Ashley ColesPh.D. ProgramUA School of
Geography&
Development
Why do people drive into
flooded washes?
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Innovative Approaches for Addressing Floods
Katie Hirschboeck & Kate Sammler
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
Tree-Ring DayEarth Science Week
March 29, 2010
Beyond “Cuisinart” Hydrology:
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EXTREME
MAKEOVER:
Southwest Climate
Edition
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How can water managers better deal with events in the “tails” of streamflow probability distributions — both floods & droughts?
. . . By moving beyond conventional approaches . . . .
Statistically, EXTREME EVENTS are phenomena of the Lower & Upper Tails of Skewed Probability Distributions . . .
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. . . are compelling benchmarks that aid in planning for future extreme LOW FLOW conditions using :
-- tree-ring reconstructions -- simulations-- scenario-building-- climate projection
modeling
For WESTERN WATER MANAGERS :
Water supply simulation based on extreme low flow sequences in the
paleo-record
STREAMFLOW RECONSTRUCTION for 1330-2005
Tree-Ring StreamflowReconstructions . . .
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In contrast . . . FLOOD & WATERSHED MANAGERS are far more constrained in the ways they can incorporate climate change information operationally.
This is due to . . . .
-- the extreme, short-term, localized, and weather-based nature of flooding . . . .Photo by Ashley Coles
-- existing flood management policy and practices 100-Year Flood
Hazard Area
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and . . . -- inconclusive evidence for increases in
extreme flooding in the U.S. :
“ There is no evidence of widespread or systematic increases in peak streamflows, although there is widespread evidence of increases occurring in annual low flows.”
Lins ( 2005)see also: Douglas et al., 2000; Lins and Slack 2005
LAND USE CHANGES = perceived as the more important issue
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A Workshop on Global Change and
Extreme Hydrologic Events: Testing Conventional Wisdom
January 5, 2010 - January 6, 2010
Committee on Hydrologic Sciences
National Academy of Sciences
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Information presented in an operationally useful format for flood & watershed managers
which describes how changes in the large-scale climatic “drivers” of hydrometeorological
extremes will affect flooding variability in SPECIFIC WATERSHEDS
What’s Needed:
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Meteorological & climatological flood-producing
mechanisms operate at
varying temporal and spatial scales
FLOOD-CAUSING DRIVERS & MECHANISMS
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What does it look like when classified hydroclimatically?
What kinds of storms produced the biggest floods?
Can we find out more about what drives this history of flooding?
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FLOOD HYDROCLIMATOLOGY = classifying each flood in the record according to cause
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As seen in a newspaper ad . . . .
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“FLOOD PROCESSOR”
With expanded feed tube – for entering all kinds of flood data
including steel chopping, slicing & grating blades
– for removing unique physical characteristics, climatic information, and outliers
plus plastic mixing blade – to mix the populations together
Current practice analyzes floods using
“CUISINART”HYDROLOGY!
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A Mixture of Flood Causes: Data from key flood subgroups may be
better for estimating the probability and type of extremely rare floods than a single “100-Year Flood” calculated from all the flood data combined!
Moving Beyond “Cuisinart” Hydrology . . . .
-- Useful for defining regions; -- Can then be used to estimate flow behavior in ungaged basins
(new USGS collaboration)
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FLOODHYDROCLIMATOLOGY:
(1) Different types of FLOODS
(2) Different types ofSEASONAL FLOW REGIMES
Tropical Storm -related
Summer convective
Wintersynoptic (extreme )
Winter synoptic
(moderate)
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From: Haney (2007) Southwest Hydrology
ConceptualEcological Modelfor a SouthwesternRiver Ecosystem
Flow regime is of central importance in sustainingthe ecological integrity of flowing water systems
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Ecosystem Services Analysis of Climate Change and Urban Growth in the Upper Santa Cruz Watershed; the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM) A decision support tool to mimic ecosystem services and alternative scenarios based on predictions of urban development and climate change
.
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Based on USGS “peaks-above-base” record (annual & partial series)
PURPOSE: to determine hydroclimatic context for causes of floods in AZ watersheds
Flood Hydroclimatology Database
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Model runs to link surface hydrology with scenario-
driven atmospheric circulation
Increasingly Important Research Needs:
DOWNSCALING-- clearly communicate accuracy in downscaled model results
-- don’t oversell the degree of precision
-- “scaling up from local data is as important as scaling down from globally forced regional models.”
-- regionally tailored indices may be better than the latest “index-de-jour”
Process studies at the watershed scale to specify climate linkages
Coupled with PROCESS-SENSITIVE
UPSCALING
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WHAT WILL THE FUTURE HOLD?
. . . will climatic change
make floods more extreme? more
frequent?
or will they get smaller? more
frequent? less
frequent?
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Some Important Flood-Generating Tropical Storms
Tropical storm Octave Oct 1983
(2) A Change in Frequency or Intensity of Tropical Storms?
(1) A Northward Shift in Winter Storm Track?
Roosevelt Dam Jan 1993 Winter flooding
on Rillito in Tucson
(3) A More Intense Summer Monsoon?
RillitoJuly 2006
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THANK YOU!
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