innovations in natural gas next 20 years -...

Innovations in Natural Gas Turbines … Next 20 Years

Steve BolzePresident and CEO, GE Power & Water Senior Vice President, GE

2011 Summer SeminarAugust 2, 2011

© 2011, General Electric Company

2© 2011 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

• Global dynamics favoringgas as a destination fuel

• Efficiency, emissions and flexibility are key

• Tomorrow‟s technologysolutions being developed & deployed today

Innovations in NG Turbines

© 2011 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Responding to a rapidly evolving industry



GE Energy businesses

82,000 employees – $45B ‟11 revenue 25% world‟s electricity from GE technology


• Drilling/production for … land, offshore, subsea

• LNG and pipelines

• Refining/petrochemical

• Industrial power gen

• Complete lifecycle services

Oil & GasEnergy Services

• Thermal power gen

• Renewables

• Gas Engines

• Nuclear

• Gasification

• Water treatment

• Process chemicals

Power & Water

• Maintenance agreements

• Smart Grid

• Field services

• Parts and repairs

• Optimization technologies

• Plant management


GE HDGT fleet globally

NA

2,800

Latin America

550

Middle East/Africa

1,300

Europe

1,800

Asia

1,000

Units

9E

6FA

7B

7EA

7FA05

9FA

6B

9FB

50% of world‟s Heavy Duty Gas Turbine installations …

Over 32 Million operating hours for F fleet



Technical + service excellence

($ in millions)

J920

7FA Advanced Hot Gas Path2X R&D investment

LMS100

Investing in new power technologies and products



Global operations investment

• 3,000 employees

• $150M test facility

• 2,000 employees

• $45M R&D center

Greenville, South Carolina, USA Belfort, France


Flexible capacity to meet increasing demand



Trends



6%

2%

6%

29%

18%

28%

11%

10 year global investment

2,300 GW Wind

Nuclear

Coal

Hydro

Other

Ren.

Solar

Gas/Oil

Diverse power generation mix

Energy independence

Emissions/environment

Resource constraints

Power/Water nexus

Source: GE analysis


Green energy growing … coal still > ¼ of additions


Projected reserve margin

Entergy

SPP

MISO

Florida

US supply/demand

US additions by fuel, 2011-20

UncertaintiesMarketplace dynamics

• Federal policy ... no clear timeline or champion

• Coal plants … compliance cost of EPA standards

• Financing … tax equity availability

• Nuclear … new builds and retirements

• Load growth … industrial sector & GDP rate

• Supply … high reserve margins in most regions

• Demand … return to pre-recession levels by 2012

• Regulations … ’15 impact of EPA air/water standards

• Policy … RPS in 29 states

• Fuel … gas forecast stable ~$5-6/mmbtuSource: NERC 2010 Long-term Reliability Assessment, Oxford Economics, Ventyx Velocity Suite, McCoy

Power Reports and GE Energy Analysis; CERA Global Power Projections

Note: *Other includes oil, biomass and hydro

Gas

CoalOther

Solar

Wind

Nuclear



Impact of renewable penetration

How do Wind and Solar Power Affect Grid Operations:

The Western Wind and Solar Integration Study

No renewables

10% renewables

Gas generation must:• Ramp faster and more often

• Cycle on/off faster and more often

• Spend more time at part loads

• Provide more short-term reserves

50

40

30

20

10

0Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15

50

40

30

20

10

0Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14

20% renewables50

40

30

20

10

0Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16

Coal

Gas CC

Hydro

Nuclear

Renewables

Renewables

GW

GW

GW


Source: NREL Conference Paper September 2009 – How do Wind and Solar Power Affect Grid

Operations: The Western Wind and Solar Integration Study


Moving from “bridge” to “destination” fuel

Natural Gas industry dynamics

+

-

• Growing supplies

• Stable prices

• Cleaner than installed base

of power generation

• Gas generation provides reliable

and flexible power

• Frac water concerns

• Infrastructure challenges with high

gas growth

• Various customer segments

not in consensus

• Competing technologies are not

standing still

NA shale gas production

Bcf per day

Sources: GE Energy Feb ’11 Outlook; CERA

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20

Canadian ShaleEagle fordMarcellusHanysvilleWoodfordFayettvilleBarnettMichiganCERA Outlook

Henry Hub Spot price

Nominal dollar per MMBtu NYMEX HH Futures (Feb-20-'11)

GE Baseline Oct '10 HH Outlook

Henry Hub Spot Price History

2

4

6

8

10

12

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20



Russia

flare

S. Africa

shale & CBM

Australian

LNG

CBM to

LNG

Vietnam

offshore

West

AfricaEast

Africa

India

offshore

& shale

Brazil

Assoc

gas

Argentina shale

Amazon

gas

U.S. LNG to

Caribbean

CN LNG

Poland &

EU shale

Israel Iraq

Turkmenistan

U.S. shale

New gas availability

Unconventional gas

CN shale

China

CBM

sour

shale

Indonesia

CBM &

offshore

M.E.

sour

West

Nile

PNG

LNG

Russia

frontier

Russia

LNGTechnology advancements

Source: GE Energy

Unconventional gas …

• Offshore• Shale• Flare/Assoc. Gas• Sour gas

Trends

Infrastructure investment• LNG trains• Pipeline

New gas capacity by ‟15–a)

• U.S.–b) 10.0• UAE/KSA 9.0• Australia 8.3• Russia 6.4• W. Africa 4.3 • Iraq 3.2 • Brazil 1.8

Key opportunities (Bcf per day)

(a- Major projects in development phases

(b- U.S. shale gas only

33%of

new gas


… a global game changer


92% 85% 85% 92% 92% 92% 46% 18% 28% 86%

8,400

Btu/kWh

8,400 10,500 6,300 10,100 9,600 N/A N/A N/A 6,120

Relative Cost of Electricity

Cap. Factor

HR (HHV)

$73$87

$105

$59$67

$94

$50

$204

$229

$64

$126

$144

Further reductions

possible with

lower costs and

higher Capacity

Factors

Source: GE Energy

Economics of gas and renewables becoming more attractive



Technology



Plants spend

relatively little

time in base load

steady state

Steady State AGC

Load

Spinning Reserve

Off- Peak

Turndown

Baseline3% total fuel

27% total

fuel61% total fuel 9% total fuel

How are GTs being used?

Start Reliability98%+ (28 minutes)

Turndownto 40% plant load

Ramp Rate50 MW/min

Part Load Efficiency>60% to 87% plant load



60 Hz HD Gas Turbine evolution

225

200

175

150

125

100

75

50

‟84 ‟86 ‟88 ‟90 ‟92 ‟94 ‟96 ‟98 ‟00 ‟02 ‟04 ‟06 ‟08 ‟10 „12

GT

SC

ou

tpu

t (M

W)

Year

7FA.0557.9%* Eff.

7FA.0457.8%* Eff.

7FA.0356.5%* Eff.

7FA.0255.5%* Eff.

7FA.0154%* Eff.

7F.0151%* Eff.

7EA

DLN

Combustion

Material & Coating

Single Crystal

Hot Gas Path

Compressor

Model Yr. MW SC EFF

7A 1970 48 30.5%

7B 1971 52 31.0%

7C 1972 60 32.1%

7E 1972 77 32.9%

* Combined cycle efficiency assumes 207 configuration



Improved Performance

Enhanced Durability

Field Proven

Turbine7FA Advanced Hot Gas Path

GE‟s 60 Hz response … evolution of the 7FA

CombustorDLN 2.6


Enhanced Operability

Improved Maintainability

Advanced CompressorAviation / Heavy Duty


Low Emissions

Proven combustor

Sound product evolution coupled with thorough validation testing



Oakley, California

OAKLEY GENERATING STATION GROUNDBREAKING CEREMONY JULY 12, 2011 - (L to R) - Brian Bertacchi (President and CEO, Radback Energy), Jim Frazier

(Oakley Mayor), Paul Browning (President and CEO, Thermal Products, GE Energy), Michael Peevey (President, California Public Utilities Commission), Senator

Mark DeSaulnier (California), Greg Feere (CEO of Contra Costa Building/Construction Trades Council)



510 MW, 50 Hz… 61%+ baseload efficiency

Start-up to full load 28 minutes

Ramp-rate >50 MW/minute

Plant turn-down to 40% load

A new standard in efficiency AND flexibility enabling integration

of more renewable resources onto the power grid

FlexEfficiency* 50 Combined Cycle Power Plant

a product of

ecomagination

* Trademark of General Electric Company

19



Responsive and flexible 500MW CCGT block

Base load efficiency > 60%

> 1 point advantage in flex-efficiency

Air-cooled technology

Smaller layout

Meets stringent permittingrequirements

Our next technology steps

50 Hz

60 Hz

Flexible and efficient gas turbines and combined cycles …

enabling greater renewable penetration



60 Hz HD Gas Turbine evolution

225

200

175

150

125‟90 ‟94 ‟98 ‟02 ‟06 ‟10 ‟14 ‟18 ‟22 ‟26 ‟30

GT

SC

ou

tpu

t (M

W)

Year

7FA.0557.9%* Eff.

7FA.0457.8%* Eff.

7FA.03

7FA.02

7FA.01

7F.0

1

* Combined cycle efficiency assumes 207 configuration

65%

CC Efficiency



Aeroderivative gas turbine highlights

GE LMS100®

Flexible high efficiency power



Gas engines highlights

Turbocharger

Accessory ModuleEngineGenerator

J920 Plant Rendering



Power Generation Services

Steam Turbine Services

Gas Turbine Services

Generator Services

• Dry Low NOx Combustion System retrofits

• Improved efficiency and output

• Enhanced fuel & operational flexibility

• Real-time remote monitoring & diagnostics center

• Upgrades & life extension

• Industrial applications & uprates

• Improving efficiency … Extending asset life

• Parts repairs and refurbishment

• Outage interval extension, high cyclic duty,

next-generation stator insulation materials

• Preventative maintenance & on-line M&D

• In-situ robotic generator inspection (MAGICTM)



What the future holds …



Ceramic Matrix Composites+300 F temperature capability vs. superalloys

Advanced Cooling & Sealing

Micro-poreMicro-pore Pulse & Fluidic Film

ConformingAbradable

Thermal

Barrier

Coatings

Temperature

Capability

3000°F

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

Porous

DVC

2000°F

Coated CMCs

Thermal

Barrier

Coatings

Thermal

Barrier

Coatings

Temperature

Capability

3000°F

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

PorousPorous

DVCDVC

2000°F

Coated CMCsCoated CMCs

Advanced Thermal Coatings

Redefining turbine efficiency

Advanced CombustionAdvanced premixing, axial fuel staging

3-D Compressor Aero

Path toward 65% combined cycle efficiency



Future trends in turbine technology

CombustionImproved fuel flexibility and

turndown capability

Energy Storage$160M investment … creating

$1B business for GE

Thin Film SolarThinFilm solar efficiencies

… PrimeStar

Solid Oxide Fuel Cells70% efficiency potential …

integrates well into CO2 capture

eSolarTower based concentrating

solar thermal technology

Pulse TechnologyPulsed detonation results in >

fuel efficiency with same power

GE‟s cutting edge technology … paving the way for future generations

© 2011, General Electric Company27© 2011 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.


• Provide a clear landscape of future generation needs

• Be a strong voice for shaping meaningful and predictable energy policy

• Help develop robust models that evaluate flexibility in generation decisions

How the industry can help?


Innovations in Natural Gas Turbines … Next 20 Years

Steve BolzePresident and CEO, GE Power & Water Senior Vice President, GE

2011 Summer SeminarAugust 2, 2011

innovations in natural gas next 20 years -...

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