innovations in ammonia - firt.org in ammonia.pdf · trevor brown, cfa. ammoniaindustry.com....
TRANSCRIPT
Trevor Brown, CFA
AmmoniaIndustry.com
Fertilizer Outlook & Technology ConferenceJacksonville, FL, November 13, 2018
Innovations in Ammonia
& AmmoniaEnergy.org
1) History of Innovation: Energy Efficiency
2) Future of Innovation: Carbon Efficiency
3) Low-carbon Ammonia: Available Today
4) Green Ammonia Pilot Plants: Electrolysis + Haber-Bosch
5) Green Ammonia Markets: Scale and Scope
Innovations in Ammonia
Electric Arc
Cyanamid Process
Haber-Bosch Process
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Ammonia Synthesis (Nitrogen Fixation): Energy Efficiency, 1910-2015Various sources / AmmoniaIndustry.com, November 2018
Commercial Nitrogen Fixation Technologies: specific energy consumption Haber-Bosch: Minimum Input Energy
IFA Benchmarking: Global average
IFA Benchmarking: 25% global reduction
possible by 2050
Global average (low)
"Optimal" Newbuild
Global average (high)
-20% from 1990
-40%
-60%
Paris Agreement: 80% EU reduction required by 2050
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Ammonia Synthesis: Energy Efficiency, 2000-2050IFA Benchmarks / AmmoniaIndustry.com, November 2018
IFA Benchmarking: Global Average Paris Agreement: EU Emission Reduction Targets
Haber-Bosch: Minimum Input Energy
SMR: 7.78
Naphtha: 9.72
HFO: 10.56Coal: 11.67 MWh/ton
SMR: 7.22Electrochemical: 7.50
Biomass: 11.67
Electrolysis: 8.61
Nuclear: 6.94
SMR-CCS: 7.50
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Ammonia Synthesis: Best Available Technologies, 2000-2050IFA Benchmarks / CEFIC / AmmoniaIndustry.com, November 2018
IFA Benchmarking: Global Average IFA Benchmarking: 2009 Best Available Technology (BAT)
CEFIC: Energy Roadmap 2050 Haber-Bosch: Minimum Input Energy
Global Average 20032014
2050SMR 2009
Naphtha Heavy Fuel Oil
Coal
SMR 2050Electrochemical
Biomass
Electrolysis (mature)
Nuclear
SMR-CCS
Electrolysis (early)
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Emissions (tons CO2) per metric ton ammonia
Ammonia Synthesis: Carbon Efficiency, 2000-2050IFA Benchmarking / CEFIC / AmmoniaIndustry.com, November 2018
IFA Benchmarking: Global Average IFA Benchmarking: 2009 Best Available Technology (BAT)
CEFIC: Energy Roadmap 2050 Haber-Bosch: Minimum Input Energy
Low-carbon Haber-Bosch: Available Today
• Showa Denko, Kawasaki, Japan• Plastic gasification since 2003• Ammonia capacity 175 tons per day• 65% hydrogen feedstock from recycled plastic• Ecoann™ ammonia sold as premium deNOx product
“Approved and rated high as ‘eco-friendly goods for procurement’ by major electric power companies.”
Low-carbon Haber-Bosch: Available Today
• Nutrien, Joffre, Canada• Byproduct hydrogen feedstock since 1987• Ammonia capacity 1,350 tons per day• 25% reduction in carbon footprint v SMR• Alberta carbon tax hits both fuel and feedstock
Credits generated by the Joffre plant can offset emission costs of other plants in the Alberta fleet
(on the subject of carbon taxes)
• 10/25/2018: On one hand …• CEO of US ammonia producer, during Q3 2018 earnings call, responds to
question about perhaps expanding ammonia capacity in Canada:• “The Trudeau government and some of their carbon backstop legislation
… they're doing things that are really anti-business and make it very difficult for us to want to spend money in that particular area.”
(on the subject of carbon taxes)
• 10/25/2018: On the other hand …• PM Justin Trudeau of Canada meets a
Dutch trade delegation, and receives a knitted ammonia molecule mascot, ‘Monia,’ from Jacco Mooijer of Proton Ventures, renewable ammonia plant engineers, in the presence of visiting PM Mark Rutte of the Netherlands. Photo credit: Adam Scotti
Green Ammonia: Back to the future
• Yara (Norsk Hydro), Glomfjord, Norway• Carbon-free ammonia, 1953 – 1991 • The world’s biggest electrolyzers:
two 135 MW units, generating hydrogen feedstock at 30,000 Nm3 per hour
• No market advantage for “green”-ness, eventually not competitive v SMR
Green Ammonia: Electrolyzer Pilot Plants
• University of Minnesota: Morris, MN, US• Operational since 2013• R&D innovation:
Scaling down Haber-Bosch to match wind
Green Ammonia: Electrolyzer Pilot Plants
Green Ammonia: Electrolyzer Pilot Plants
• FREA: Fukushima, Japan• Operational since April 2018• R&D innovation:
Catalyst development optimized for low-pressure electrolytic hydrogen
Green Ammonia: Electrolyzer Pilot Plants
• Siemens: Oxford, UK• Operational since June 2018• R&D innovation:
Business Models: ancillary grid services (DSM), energy storage, electrofuelproduction
Green Ammonia: Electrolyzer Pilot Plants
Green Ammonia: Electrolyzer Pilot Plants
• ThyssenKrupp: Port Lincoln, Australia• Announced 2018 for 2020 start• R&D innovation:
Market development for ammonia exports as renewable energy commodity
Green Ammonia: Electrolyzer Pilot Plants
Green Ammonia: Electrolyzer Pilot Plants
Green Ammonia: Electrolyzer Pilot Plants
• Haldor Topsoe: Denmark• Announced 2018 for 2025 start• R&D innovation:
Staged electrification of industry, SMR-ammonia plant revamp
Green Ammonia: Electrolyzer Pilot Plants
Green Ammonia: Electrolyzer Pilot Plants
Green Ammonia: Electrolyzer Pilot Plants
International Energy Agency: Economics
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25,000,000
50,000,000
75,000,000
100,000,000
125,000,000
150,000,000
175,000,000
200,000,000
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Global Ammonia Production, 1947 – 2014Metric tons of ammonia. Source: US Geological Survey 1947-2014 / AmmoniaIndustry.com, November 2018
World TOTAL
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25,000,000
50,000,000
75,000,000
100,000,000
125,000,000
150,000,000
175,000,000
200,000,000
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Global Ammonia Production, 1947 – 2014Metric tons of ammonia. Source: US Geological Survey 1947-2014 / AmmoniaIndustry.com, November 2018
World TOTAL Australia
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25,000,000
50,000,000
75,000,000
100,000,000
125,000,000
150,000,000
175,000,000
200,000,000
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Global Ammonia Production, 1947 – 2014Metric tons of ammonia. Source: US Geological Survey 1947-2014 / AmmoniaIndustry.com, November 2018
World TOTAL China Australia
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018 2024 2030 2036 2042 2048
Global Ammonia Production, Scenario to 2050 @ 2% growthMetric tons of ammonia. Source: US Geological Survey, 1947-2014 / AmmoniaIndustry.com, November 2018
World TOTAL China Australia
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018 2024 2030 2036 2042 2048
Global Ammonia Production, Scenario to 2050 @ 2% growthMetric tons of ammonia. Source: US Geological Survey, 1947-2014 / AmmoniaIndustry.com, November 2018
World TOTAL China Australia
0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018 2024 2030 2036 2042 2048
Global Ammonia Production, Scenario to 2050 @ export strengthMetric tons of ammonia. Source: US Geological Survey, 1947-2014 / AmmoniaIndustry.com, November 2018
World TOTAL China Australia
30 years, 8.5% growth 20 yrs, 2.0%
30 yrs, 4.25%
8.5%Siemens “in discussions” to develop:• 500 GW solar (10,000 km2 of Pilbara desert)• 12 MWh per ton (electrolyzer, Haber-Bosch)• 1,000,000 ton ammonia capacity (per day)• Market: renewable energy exports
The Green Ammonia Market
• Nitrogen Commodity Hydrogen Commodity• Homogenous Commodity Heterogeneous Commodity
$ Price Premium = $ Local Function[Carbon Footprint]• Green Ammonia (Energy Markets) Green Ammonia (Ag Markets)
Low-Carbon Leakage: supply creates demand
• Thank [email protected]://ammoniaindustry.com