innovation matters - bernie meyerson
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Bernie Meyerson Vice President for Innovation, IBM Dr. Meyerson is IBM’s Vice President for Global Innovation and leads IBM’s Global University Relations Function within IBM’s Corporate HQ organization. He is also responsible for the IBM Academy, a self-governed organization of approximately 1000 technical executives and senior technical leaders from across IBM. Dr. Meyerson joined IBM Research as a Staff member in 1980 and led the development of several high performance technologies over a period of 10 years. In 1992, he was appointed as an IBM Fellow, IBM’s highest technical honor. In 2001, he became Chief Technologist of IBM’s Technology Group and assumed operational responsibility for IBM’s global Semiconductor R&D efforts in 2003. In his most recent role, Dr. Meyerson was VP of Strategic Alliances and CTO for the IBM Systems and Technology group, inclusive of its M&A practice. Dr. Meyerson is a Fellow of the American Physical Society and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE). He is also a member of the National Academy of Engineering and has received numerous technical and business awards for his work. For his innovation efforts, Dr. Meyerson was cited as “Inventor of the Year” by the New York State Legislature in 1998, and he was recognized as “United States Distinguished Inventor of the Year” by the US IP Law Association and the Patent and Trademark office in 1999. He was recognized in May 2008 as “Inventor of the Year” by the New York State Intellectual Property Lawyers Association. Most recently, he received the Pake Prize of the American Physical Society in 2011, honoring him for his combined original scientific research and business leadership.TRANSCRIPT
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Dr. Bernard Meyerson – IBM Fellow, Vice President of Innovation, CHQ
Why Innovation Matters: Big
Data, Data Babies and the
Analytics in Between
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson
2007
Why Innovate?
“What is the most important capability required for growth?”
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Ability to manage increasing regulation costs
Ability to allocate capital
Ability to manage a global organization
Ability to allocate the best talent
Ability to innovate
Source: McKinsey survey of 9,345 global executives 07
McKinsey Global Survey 2010:
84% of executives say Innovation is extremely or very important to their companies’ growth strategy
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Key Elements of Sustainable Innovation
A short list of Innovation Essentials
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Essential #1; T-Shaped Innovators Requirement: Deep, Expert-Thinking, with Broad Complex-Communications Skills
Many disciplines (understanding & communications)
Many systems (understanding & communications)
Deep
in o
ne d
iscip
line
(a
na
lytic
thin
kin
g &
pro
ble
m s
olv
ing)
Deep
in o
ne s
yste
m
(an
aly
tic th
inkin
g &
pro
ble
m s
olv
ing)
Many team-oriented projects completed (resume: outcomes, accomplishments & awards)
Broad across many
Deep in at least one
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012
A Call to Alms:-})
Talented techies deserve ‘rock star’ treatment: IBM BARRIE McKENNA
OTTAWA — The Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, Nov. 06 2012, 5:53 PM EST
Last updated Tuesday, Nov. 06 2012, 5:55 PM EST
Canada and the United States need to get back to treating – and compensating – their leading
technology creators like “rock stars,” says IBM’s global head of innovation.
“An economy is only as good as its supply of talent,” explained Bernard Meyerson,
International Business Machine Corp.’s vice-president of innovation and relations with
universities. “Physical infrastructure is nice to have, but without good people, you get awful
results.”
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson
1997: Copper
Interconnect Wiring
1998: Silicon-on-Insulator
1998: Microdrive 2002:
Millipede
2004: Blue Gene The fastest
supercomputer in the world
2006: 5-stage Carbon Nanotube Ring
Oscillator
2008: World’s First Petaflop
Supercomputer
1948: SSEC
1956: RAMAC
1944: Mark 1
1957: FORTRAN
1964: System/360
1971: Speech
Recognition
1967: Fractals
1970: Relational Database
1966: One-Device Memory Cell
1973: Winchester
Disk
1979: Thin Film Recording
Heads
1980: RISC
Nobel Prizes:
Scanning Tunneling
Microscope
High Temperature Superconductivity
1990: Chemically Amplified
Photoresists
1994: SIGe
1993: RS/6000 SP 1996,97: Deep Blue
1987: 1986:
Outcomes; The “AHA” Moments Extraordinary Innovators Create Innovations That Matter
2010: Watson
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Valuing Continuous Innovation; Beyond The “AHA!” Moment
Disk Drives
–If IBM had not continued to innovate in this
field, today’s laptops would weigh
approximately 250,000 Tons
Never Undervalue Ongoing Innovation
x2
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Essential #2: Innovators Need INFRASTRUCTURE Enabling Collaborative Innovation (Outreach Matters)
China
Watson Almaden
Austin
Tokyo Haifa
Zurich
India
IBM Research Lab
Global, Smarter Planet Collaborations
Pangoo
Brazil
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Essential #3: Dynamics: Innovators Must Evolve
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Inter-disciplinary collaboration in the market and across the globe
Centrally Funded Joint Programs
Research in the
Marketplace
Collaborative
Innovation
Corporate Collaborative Work on Create business
2010s
Collaborative
funded
Technology
transfer
Team
Shared agenda
Effectiveness
client
problems advantage for clients
Industry-focused research
partnerships
Emerging markets
Global
Collaboration
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard Meyerson
The Extraordinary Trajectory;
A Quick Review of How We Got “Here”, And
Why Innovation Must Now Accelerate
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Moore’s Law – Connecting Scaling and Economics
Number of devices integrated on a chip of fixed area doubles every 12-18 months
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Scaling in the Past vs. Scaling Now
1.40
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.25
1.30
1.35
Rela
tive P
erf
orm
an
ce
1.20
1.05
1.10
1.15 Scaling In The Past…
Higher Capacitance
Higher Resistance
Reduced Stress
Scaling Now
Channel Scaling High-k / Metal Gate Body Controlled Devices Reduced Gate Height Advanced BEOL Dielectric
New Scaling Requirements; Massive Innovation
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Materials Innovation
Elements Employed in Silicon Technology
90’s through 2005
Beyond 2006
Before 90’s
This has gotten unimaginably EXPENSIVE!!!
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
Total RD & E (Chip + Eq)
Semiconductor Revenues
B
Semiconduct
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Reven
ue/R
D&
E
Total RD & E (Chip + Eq)
Semiconductor Revenues
Year
D
###
Chip Making R&D Versus Revenues (Worldwide in $M) With Permission, VLSI inc.
ex
tra
po
late
d
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
180nm 130nm 90nm 65nm 45nm 32nm
Co
sts
($M
)
Process development Process ramp-up
22nm
~$2.3B
Source: IBS Global System IC Service Management Report, April 2006.
Estimated cost to develop the 22-nm CMOS logic process
$1.1B
ex
tra
po
late
d
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
180nm 130nm 90nm 65nm 45nm 32nm
Co
sts
($M
)
Process development Process ramp-up
22nm
~$2.3B
Source: IBS Global System IC Service Management Report, April 2006.
Estimated cost to develop the 22-nm CMOS logic process
$1.1B
ex
tra
po
late
d
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
180nm 130nm 90nm 65nm 45nm 32nm
Co
sts
($M
)
Process development Process ramp-up
22nm
~$2.3B
Source: IBS Global System IC Service Management Report, April 2006.
Estimated cost to develop the 22-nm CMOS logic process
$1.1B
Reminder; The industry trend has been
for R&D Expenses to outpace revenues
2004-2020 Projected CAGR
Revenues ~ 6.5%
R&D ~ 12.2%
This was/is NOT sustainable
Fiscal reality drove our industry to consolidate around Innovation Networks.
The predicted consolidation continues virtually unabated.
2004 - 2010 CAGR
R&D
Expenses
12.2%
Revenue
Growth
6.5%
2004 - 2010 CAGR
R&D
Expenses
12.2%
Revenue
Growth
6.5%
Issue First Raised in 2004; Is There a Sustainable Business Model?
3002 NO
© 2010 IBM Corporation Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson Collaborative Innovation
Information Technology in the “Post-Silicon” Era
The “Silicon Era” is rapidly(~10 years) coming to an end. – While silicon will be the semiconductor of choice for several decades to come,
devices themselves will play a minimal role in driving future IT performance.
– Deep integration of hardware, software, system, and network functionality, will
absorb the “slack” created by the absence of raw silicon performance gains.
– Viable “post-silicon” technology requires >1B simultaneously functional devices
The tremendous investments associated with the
innovations required to continue driving device density will
prompt ever greater consolidation in this industry.
Despite all the challenges cited here, Innovation in
Information Technology will drive ever more rapid
advances in its capabilities
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson , October, 2012
New Drivers of Progress in
Information Technology
Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson , October, 2012
Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson , October, 2012
A New Paradigm For Systems
Scale In
Memory
Switching
Storage
Processor
Collaborative Innovation 18
Brain
Cities
Water
HPC & Agile Computing
Energy
Applied Research +
Innovation Centre
IBM Canada Research and Development Centre
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation 19
The IBM Canada R&D Centre Mission
Announced April 10, 2012
Focus on Agile Computing and Smarter Infrastructure –Agile computing enabling Smarter;
• Healthcare • Water • Energy • Cities
High Performance Computing Infrastructure Partners –University of Toronto –Western University –Canadian Leadership Data Centre
Collaboration is foundational and key to success –Seven University partners –Ontario Centre of Excellence (OCE) to enable industry
participation –Federal and provincial government engagements – IBM Research and Lab support –Cross discipline and cross-university collaboration
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation
IBM Canada
Software Lab
IBM Canada
Others
Western
UofT
Waterloo
UofO
Queen’s
McMaster
R&D Centre
Small & Medium Enterprises
Collaboration at Work – The Southern Ontario Smart Computing Innovation Platform
HPC & Cloud
Infrastructure UOIT
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Enabling Technologies; Advanced Microelectronics Research
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation 22
University Partnership on Analytics Skills
Develop and implement a model of cooperation that:
a) Enhances education, training and research collaboration in the areas of Analytics between IBM
and Post-Secondary educational institutions in Nova Scotia and the Atlantic Canada region,
b) Increases the number of individuals with education, training, experience and certification in
Analytics throughout Nova Scotia and the Atlantic Canada region, and
c) Engages Nova Scotia’s post-secondary educational institutions as key partners in research and
development for the creation of essential skills and applications in Analytics.
Curriculum
Development
& Delivery
Research &
Development
Technology
Installation &
Support
Specific actions and investment to facilitate three pillars of partnership:
Led by Post-Secondary
institutions, building on
existing programs,
materials and case
studies
IBM donation of HW (SUR
Grant) and SW (Academic
Initiative) to develop a
provincial cloud to support
curriculum deployment
and skills development
Forward looking, building
on the critical mass of
skills, technology
infrastructure and
additional industrial /
government partners
Announced today @ 10:30am, EST
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard Meyerson
How Do We Focus IT Innovation
In This New Era?
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard Meyerson
The Grand Challenges
In 2008 We Asked The IBM Community To Identify
Global, Societal, Grand Challenges
Innovation Jam 2008-Crowd Sourcing the Future
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Eliminating the millions of tons of
food thrown away annually in
the US and UK could lift more
than a billion people
out of hunger worldwide
Global Challenge: Food
Image Source: Sun
Collaborative Innovation
© IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson
Today there are
1 Billion cars on the road. That number will
double in 2020
Congested roadways
cost $78 Billion annually in the form of
4.2 Billion lost working hours and
2.9 billion gallons of wasted gas.
Global Challenge:
Transportation
Collaborative Innovation
© IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson
Global Challenge: Healthcare
$475 Billion Estimated U.S. healthcare spending each year on administrative and clinical waste, fraud and abuse and other waste.1
1.5 Million
Errors in the way medications are prescribed, delivered and taken harm 1.5 million people in the U.S. every year.2
Collaborative Innovation
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Our Thesis: These Problems Result in Large Part From
Our Inability to Utilize VAST AMOUNTS OF
INFORMATION Effectively
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson 29
“Big” Data Is REALLY BIG
“Every two days now we create as
much information as we did from the
dawn of civilization up until 2003.”
~ Eric Schmidt, CEO Google
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012
Ann Winbald,
Co-founder Hummer
Winbald Venture Capital
In its raw form, oil has little value. Once processed & refined, it helps power the world.
30
“Data is the New Oil”
Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson , October, 2012
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard Meyerson
To Understand and Effectively Utilize
Big Data We Need a New Suite of Tools:
Analytics
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson
“Looks like you have all the data, what’s the holdup?”
Why Analytics?
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard Meyerson
-The Outcome of Innovation Jam 2008-
We Believe It Is The Responsibility of Those Who
Create and Deploy Such Advanced Information
Technology To Step Up and Create a “Smarter Planet”
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012
The Concept of a Smarter Planet Is Solutions for Society
Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Smart Traffic
Systems
Smart Water
Management
Smart Energy
Grids Smart
Healthcare
Smart Food
Systems
Intelligent
Oil field
technologies
Smart
Regions
Smart
Weather
Smart
Countries
Smart Supply
Chains Smart Cities
Smart Retail
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Po
pu
latio
n (
millio
ns)
Urban Population Rural Population
Why Begin With Issues of a Smarter City? Consider Future Population Demographics
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Ensuring a Future:
-Smarter Healthcare-
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012
Files, TCP Sockets
Big Data & Predictive Analytics in Healthcare
Toronto Hospital for Sick Children
Sources
Correlating blood oxygenation with blood pressure to predict “Baby crashing”
Nosocomial Infection Prediction
Monitoring heart rate variability with other information to predict sepsis
Alarms up to 24 hours earlier than by experienced ICU Nurses
Predict Baby Crashing
~24 hrs
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard Meyerson
One Element of a Smarter City:
-Smarter Transportation-
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson
The Smart Principle: Integrating real-world data with analytics allows one to be Proactive vs Reactive
Operational/
Transactional • Toll collection only -
disconnected
operational data
• Transaction data from
the management of
payments
• Little automated use
is made of real-time
traffic data
Bu
sin
es
s
Develo
pm
en
t
Operational/ Transactional
• More granular
charging, by location
• Analysis of traffic
patterns to manage
city congestion.
• Modeling traffic to
predict and manage
entire system
Insights
Road Usage
Optimization,
GHG emission
models
• Dynamic and
congestion based
pricing
• Route planning and
advice, shippers,
concrete haulers,
limo companies,
theatres, taxis etc
• City-wide, dynamic
traffic optimization
System wide control
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Smarter Transportation: Predicting Traffic Flow
•10 minute-ahead volume forecast (blue) vs. actual
value (black) •10 minute-ahead speed forecast (blue) vs. actual
value (black).
Data Analytics in Action
Singaporeans now get there Faster, Cheaper, and Greener
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Changing the Future:
-Smarter Public Safety-
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Collaborative Innovation With Rio de Janeiro
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard Meyerson
The Intelligent Operations Center, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
The Challenge; Evolve from Reactive to Proactive Operations
History; Flooding in 2010 resulted in 110 deaths.
Proactive emergency response is crucial
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard Meyerson
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation
Sometimes Nature Hits VERY Close to Home
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation
“Big Data’s” Impact on Public Safety: Example; Blue CRUSH in Memphis, TN & Richmond, VA
Blue CRUSH predictive analysis for officer deployment & risk management generated easy-to-read crime maps every four hours
Richmond, VA: Violent crime decreased in the first year by 32%, another 40% thereafter,
moving Richmond from #5 on the list of the most dangerous US cities to #99
Memphis Blue CRUSH Map
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard Meyerson
Big Data in Big Business
-”Impact” Takes on a Whole New Meaning-
© IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson
Collaborative Innovation: Statoil & IBM
Operational process optimization and
equipment monitoring
Accelerated production and increased
reserves, in addition to standardization and
automation of work processes, OLF
estimated value of US$50 Billion over five
years (ref. Norwegian Oil Industry Association [OLF])
Environmental Factors
Collaborative Innovation
© 2010 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation 49
Cyber; The Next Battleground for Analytics
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/united-states/121012/panetta-us-cyber-security-threat-pre-911-moment
© 2011 IBM Corporation Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 Dr. Bernard Meyerson
The New Realities of Innovation
The Innovators of tomorrow require a new mix of
skills to manage complex systems of systems
producing BIG DATA.
Data Analytics can extract unprecedented insights
from BIG DATA, and within a decade will become as
common a “tool” as the pocket calculator.
We, the Information Technology industry, and our
partners in its use, have a responsibility to enable
solutions for a Smarter Planet, with all the societal
benefits that entails.