informed decisions - tweed shire · informed decisions .id . is a company of demographers, housing...
TRANSCRIPT
demographers
informed decisions .id is a company of demographers, housing analysts, forecasters
and Census data experts who have developed demographic
information products specifically for the Australian Local
Government market.
.id stands for “informed decisions” and our work is to provide decision makers within
government and the community with readily accessible, easy to use information about the
people living in their communities of interest.
.id’s products give Councils the evidence base to plan housing policy and service delivery,
attract investment and promote their region, support funding submissions and compete for
resources, advocate for the community and work collaboratively.
po box 1689 collingwood victoria 3066 t 03 9417 2205 f 03 9417 2206 e [email protected]
understand your working population and local industrial activity
economic profile 5 economy.id
housing policy for sustainable communities
housing capacity and affordability analysis 4 housing.id
Understand your future resident population
population forecast 3 forecast.id
allocate your resources social atlas 2 atlas.id
understand your community
community profile 1 profile.id
Demographic toolkit
demographers
.id briefing 2014 Today we will be presenting a demographic briefing for Tweed Council to
improve awareness of how .id’s information tools can be used at a strategic,
council-wide level.
This briefing will focus on the trends within the Local Government Area.
We will look at some key national and NSW trends, as well as focussing in on
your local area, and showing how .id’s tools can tell the demographic story of
your area.
Finally we will look at some of the key issues for the area which are raised by
the latest population forecast update.
What this briefing covers
National & State Trends
Trends in Tweed
Population Forecast
Accessing the data
5
Macro Trends
6
Macro Trends
“The official population of the Australia as of the 30th June 2013, is 23,135,281.” The Estimated Resident Population (ERP) is the OFFICIAL Australia population for 2013.
7
Macro Trends
Historical migration - national
Age structure of migrants 2006-2011,
compared to Population, NSW, 2011 Census
Source: 2011 Census of Population and Housing, ABS
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Recent arrivals (2006-2011)
Total population
National fertility rate, 1930 to 2010
Source: ABS, Births, Australia, 2010 (3301.0) – annotations by .id
National fertility rate by age of mother,
1975 - 2011
Source: ABS, Births, Australia, 2011 (3301.0)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
1975
2011
12
Population growth by age Australia, 2001-2011
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics 2013
13
Forecast comparison growth by age Australia 2011-2031
Source: ABS, Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101; .id SAFi
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Pers
ons
Age group
.id SAFi.id SAFi
Comparative growth among the
states - relative
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT
State % growth 2011 5 year growth %
Comparative growth among the
states - absolute
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT
Absolute growth 2006-2011
SLA Population growth, NSW,
2006-2011 ERP
Population Land area Population density
Statistics 90, 114 130,918 0.69 ABS ERP 2013 hectares (4,236 Km2) persons per hectare
Patterns of Change in Tweed
What are the characteristics of Tweed?
– Overseas Born
Tweed Shire 2011 2006 Change
Birthplace Number % Regional
NSW % Number % Regional
NSW % 2006 to
2011
Total Overseas born
12,783 15.0 10.8 11,285 14.2 10.3 +1,498
• Non-English speaking
backgrounds
3,883 4.6 5.2 3,276 4.1 4.9 +607
• Main English speaking
countries
8,900 10.5 5.6 8,009 10.1 5.4 +891
Australia
67,470 79.3 83.8 62,563 78.9 83.7 +4,907
Not Stated
4,852 5.7 5.4 5,476 6.9 6.0 -624
Total Population 85,105 100.0 100.0 79,324 100.0 100.0 +5,781
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2006 and 2011. Compiled and presented in profile.id by .id, the population experts.
Population Change since 1991
Population Change since 2006
What are the characteristics of Tweed?
- Age
What are the characteristics of Tweed?
- Age
What are the characteristics of Tweed?
- families
What are the characteristics of Tweed?
– dwelling type
What are the characteristics of Tweed?
- education
What are the characteristics of Tweed?
– Industry of Residents
What are the characteristics of Tweed?
- income
What are the characteristics of Tweed?
– where do residents work
Employment location of residents
Tweed Shire 2011
Status Number %
Live and work in the area
18,502 56.6
Live and work in the same SLA
14,794 45.3
Live in the area and work in different SLA
3,708 11.4
Live in the area, but work outside
8,760 26.8
Work location unknown
5,403 16.5
Total employed residents
32,665 100.0
Headline Economic Statistics
Indicator Source
Gross Regional Product NIEIR 2013 $2.82 billion
Local Jobs NIEIR 2013
29,442
Largest Industry Census 2011 Health Care & Social Assistance
Local Businesses Business Register 2013
6,646
Employed Residents NIEIR 2013
36,685
Agricultural Production ABS 2011
$57.81 million
Tourism Value - add NIEIR 2013 $168.6 million
Quarterly unemployment rate
What are the characteristics of Tweed?
– Local Industry Employment (FTE)
What are the characteristics of Tweed?
– Local Industry Employment (FTE)
What are the characteristics of Tweed?
– Output
What are the characteristics of Tweed?
– output by destination
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2006 and 2011. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id, the population experts.
What are the characteristics of Tweed?
– International Exports
What are the characteristics of Tweed?
– Workforce Age Structure
What are the characteristics of Tweed?
– Hours worked
What are the characteristics of Tweed?
– GRP (stable)
Population Forecasts
Suburb Life Cycle
Population Forecast Modelling
Value of total building approvals
Residential Building approvals
What are the trends in Tweed? –
moved house n the last 5 years
What are the trends in Tweed? – Net
Gain
Top 10 LGAs ranked by net gain to the area
Tweed council area
LGA In migration Out
migration Net migration
Gold Coast (C) 3,584 3,112 +472
Byron (A) 617 240 +377
Sutherland Shire (A) 222 51 +171
Warringah (A) 156 25 +131
Ballina (A) 221 123 +98
Logan (C) 337 242 +95
Randwick (C) 128 46 +82
Canada Bay (A) 85 4 +81
Pittwater (A) 98 22 +76
Lismore (C) 217 142 +75
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 (Usual Residence Data). Compiled and presented in profile.id by .id, the population experts.
What are the trends in Tweed? – Net
Loss
Top 10 LGAs ranked by net loss to the area
Tweed council area
LGA In migration Out
migration Net migration
Clarence Valley (A) 125 246 -121
Bundaberg (R) 57 103 -46
No usual address (Qld) 6 43 -37
Fraser Coast (R) 82 118 -36
Scenic Rim (R) 59 92 -33
Kalgoorlie/Boulder (C) 0 27 -27
Banyule (C) 3 29 -26
Southern Downs (R) 40 64 -24
Bass Coast (S) 12 34 -22
Cairns (R) 76 98 -22
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 (Usual Residence Data). Compiled and presented in profile.id by .id, the population
What are the characteristics in Tweed?
- Migration
What are the forecasted trends in
Tweed?
Population year 2036 125,953
Change 2014-36 40.51%
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id The population experts, July 2014.
What are the forecasted trends in
Tweed?
Forecast residential development, 2011 to 2036
Tweed Shire Change in dwellings between 2011 and
2036
Area number %
Tweed Shire +16,455 +40.7
Bilambil - Bilambil Heights +1,410 +93.8
Cabarita area +124 +8
Cobaki - Piggabeen area +4,275 +2300.4
Mid Coast - Casuarina +3,232 +250
Murwillumbah & District +898 +21.4
North Coast - Kingscliff +792 +17.9
North East Hinterland - Tumbulgum +50 +4.2
North West Tweed - Tyalgum +82 +6.6
South Coast - Pottsville +1,533 +47.5
South East Hinterland - Burringbar +274 +20.8
South West Tweed - Uki +83 +7.9
Terranora +1,545 +160.6
Tweed Heads +922 +20.7
Tweed Heads South - Banora Point +1,093 +10.0
Tweed Heads West +142 +4.8
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id The population experts, July 2014.
What are the forecasted trends in
Tweed?
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id The population experts, July 2014.
What are the forecasted trends in
Tweed?
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id The population experts, July 2014.
What are the forecasted trends in
Tweed?
Target your policy and services?
Target your policy and services?
Target your policy and services?
Tweed Sites
Tools available
Online now:
Access all your .id sites from the new landing
page at
www.id.com.au/tweed profile.id® – understand your communities
atlas.id® - target your services
forecast.id® - target your services
economy.id® - understand your workforce
Tools available
Online now:
http://demographic-indicators.id.com.au
http://economic-indicators.id.com.au/
Follow us
• Find out about the latest demographic trends
and news.
• Subscribe to our newsletter online or via the
sign-up sheet here.
• Hints & Tips about using your profile and
forecast sites.
• popualtion & urban planning news
• .id blog – http://blog.id.com.au
Questions?